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Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016

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Page 1: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective

Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016

Page 2: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Forward-Looking Statements

Information included within this press release describing the projected growth and future results and events constitutes forward-looking statements, within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results in future periods may differ materially from the forward-looking statements because of a number of risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to the risk that the Merger with Berkshire is delayed or will not be completed and the resulting effect thereof on our future business, financial results and the price of our common stock; the effect the expenses related to the Merger may have on our operating results; the effect of business uncertainties and contractual restrictions while the Merger is pending; fluctuations in the aerospace, power generation, and general industrial cycles; the relative success of our entry into new markets; competitive pricing; the financial viability of our significant customers; the concentration of a substantial portion of our business with a relatively small number of key customers; the impact on the Company of customer or supplier labor disputes; demand, timing, and market acceptance of new commercial and military programs, and our ability to accelerate production levels to meet order increases on new or existing programs in a timely fashion; the availability and cost of energy, raw materials, supplies, and insurance; the cost of pension and postretirement medical benefits; equipment failures; product liability claims; changes in inventory valuations; cybersecurity threats; relations with our employees; our ability to manage our operating costs and to integrate acquired businesses in an effective manner, including the ability to realize expected synergies; the timing of new acquisitions; misappropriation of our intellectual property rights; governmental regulations and environmental matters; risks associated with international operations and world economies; the relative stability of certain foreign currencies; fluctuations in oil & gas prices and production; the impact of adverse weather conditions or natural disasters; the availability and cost of financing; and the implementation of new technologies and process improvements. Any forward-looking statements should be considered in light of these factors. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking information to reflect anticipated or unanticipated events or circumstances after the date of this document.

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Page 3: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

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State of the Market Supply side Structures Engines Forecast

Page 4: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Record Backlogs

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Source: Boeing; Airbus; Airline Monitor

Page 5: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Share of World Traffic

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Source: June 2014 Airline Monitor

Page 6: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Oil, Deliveries, and Retirements

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Source: www.titudorancea.com, Airline Monitor

Page 7: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

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State of the Market Supply side Structures Engines Forecast

Page 8: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Raw Materials – Sponge

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2015 sponge production up 5% Japan and FSU increased, China declined Global utilization slightly above 50%

Source: TIMET Internal Estimates

Page 9: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Raw Materials – Feedstocks

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Rutile declined close to 10% from 2014 levels Seeing further declines in 2016

Source: TZMI

Page 10: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Volatility experienced during 2004-2008 frenzy has not returned

Raw Materials – Scrap long term

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Source: Metalprices.com

Page 11: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Market accelerated in early 2014, but stabilized through Q1 2015

Alloy scrap increased in late spring through early fall

Free fall began in October

Raw Materials – Scrap short term

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Source: Metalprices.com

Page 12: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Raw Materials - Molybdenum Addition

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Source: Ryan’s Notes

Page 13: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Raw Materials - Vanadium Addition

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Source: Ryan’s Notes

Page 14: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Raw Materials - Vanadium Addition

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Sep 30th average = $3.83/lb versus December average of $2.38/lb.

Page 15: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

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State of the Market Supply side Structures Engines Forecast

Page 16: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Market Share* Trend: 1960-2035

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1960 1990 2015 2035

Source: Airline Monitor April 2016 History, June 2016 Forecast * Based on number of aircraft delivered

McDonnell Douglas Boeing Airbus Other

Page 17: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Structures: Increasing Titanium Content

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Source: Goldman Sachs , Americas: Aerospace & Defense, The GS Commercial Aerospace Materials Series: Titanium, Exhibit 17 estimated aircraft weight and titanium content. Engine not included.

Page 18: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Structures

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Source: Airline Monitor June 2016

Page 19: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

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State of the Market Supply side Structures Engines Forecast

Page 20: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Market Share* Trend: 1960-2035

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CFM GE IAE P&W RR Other

1960 1990 2015 2035

Source: Airline Monitor April 2016 History, June 2016 Forecast * Based on number of engines delivered

Page 21: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Engine Sourcing Trends

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707 P&W

787 GE/RR

A320 Legacy IAE/P&W

A340 - 2/3 CFM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

A320 NEO Family CFM/P&W

767 GE/P&W/RR

737 Legacy CFM 757

P&W/RR

747 GE/P&W/RR

A310 GE/P&W

727 P&W

A300 GE/P&W

WID

E N

ARR

OW

717 RR

EMB 170 GE

C919 CFM

Cseries P&W

737 CFM

E2 Jets P&W

MC21 P&W

777 GE/P&W/RR

A330 GE/P&W/RR

A340 – 5/6 RR

777-300ER GE

A380 Alliance/RR

747-8 GE

A350 RR

A330NEO RR

777X GE

Page 22: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Engines

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Source: Airline Monitor June 2016

Page 23: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

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State of the Market Supply side Structures Engines Forecast

Page 24: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Making sense of Airline Monitor

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Source: Airline Monitor

Page 25: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Airline Monitor Forecasts

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Source: Airline Monitor

Page 26: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Build Rate Comparisons

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Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2016, Airline Monitor June 2016, TIMET Internal Estimates *OEM build rates through 2019

Page 27: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Aerospace Market Shipments

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Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2016, Airline Monitor June 2016, TIMET Internal Estimates, includes one year offset

Page 28: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

TIMET Aerospace Titanium Forecast

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Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2016, Airline Monitor June 2016, TIMET Internal Estimates, includes one year offset

Page 29: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective

Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016

Page 30: Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: …...Aerospace Market for Titanium Mill Products: Demand & Supply Perspective Henry S. Seiner 9-November-2016 Forward-Looking Statements

February 6, 2018 | Grand Hyatt Singapore titanium.org