aether analytics technical conspectus april 19,2014

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  • ther Analytics Weekly Technical Conspectus publ ish date : 4/19/2014

    Author : Alex Bernal, CMT

    [email protected]

    805.252.7161

  • DISCLAIMER

    reliable, but no representation is made by us that such information is accurate or complete. The views

    expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do

    not undertake to advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.

    This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not

    constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individualized or otherwise. Investments involve substantial risk,

    and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make their

    own investment decisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific

    circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are denominated in foreign

    currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about

    past performance of an investment is not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future

    performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.

    To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event

    any information, commentary, analysis, options, advice and / or recommendations in the report prove to

    be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.

    The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the

    public, clients, prospective clients, colleagues and other participants in the global capital markets. You

    may use the information provided at your own risk.

    No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In

    no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be

    held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without

    limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information

    contained herein.

    Report Details

    Charts : Only markets that have critical trade setups or existing trades will be included.

    Publishing schedule : Weekly, delivered Sunday evening

    If any instrument was not covered in this weeks letter but you would still like a technical synopsis

    Please feel free to skype me at alexbernal0 or email alex@aetheranalytics. com

    Table of Contents

    Section 1 : Quick Table Summary

    Quick Glance Table

    Current Trade Setups

    Section 2 : Currencies

    AUDCAD

    AUDJPY

    AUDNZD

    AUDUSD

    EURAUD

    EURCAD

    EURGBP

    EURJPY

    EURNZD

    EURTRY

    EURUSD

    GBPAUD

    GBPCAD

    GBPJPY

    GBPNZD

    HKDJPY

    NZDJPY

    NZDUSD

    USDCAD

    USDHKD

    USDJPY

    USDMXN

    USDSGD

    USDTRY

    Section 3 : Energy Complex

    WTI Crude

    Brent Crude

    Section 4 : Financials

    10 Year T Note

    30 Year T Bond

    Ultra Bond

    Section 5 : Indices

    SP 500

    Nasdaq 100

    Russell 2000

    DJIA

    VIX VXX VXZ

    Nikkei

    Shanghai

    Heng Seng

    Jakarta

    Section 6 : Metals

    Gold

    Silver

  • Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level

    Recommended Entry

    Price

    Current Stops Targets Quick Note Time Frame

    AUDCAD Sell stop to entry 1.06 1/2 @ 1.04, 1/2 @ 1.05 0.99 & 0.96 Bearish butterfly pattern. Possible wave 3 of 5 so I would suggest 3/4 of normal position size if traded. Daily

    AUDJPY Entry 95.00 Triggered 1/2 @ 97.14 , 1/2 @ 97.63 (1) 93-92, (2) 89 -87 Trade is Live. Daily

    AUDNZD Fractals Exist but pattern rank is not high enough for trade suggestions.

    AUDUSD Entry 0.935 Triggered 1/2 @ 0.958, 1/2 @ 0.956 91 & 88 Trade is Live Daily

    EURAUD Buy Stop Entry 1.488 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.5948 minimum Entry trigger very close to happening Weekly

    EURCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias

    EURGBP Possible Three Drives Reversal Pattern

    EURJPY Clearly tracing out a corrective symmetrical triangle pattern. Breakout targets (150 or 134) long term

    EURNZD Buy Stop Triggered 1.605 1/2 @ 1.578, 1/2 @ 1.572 1.64 & 1.70 Trade is live. Daily

    EURTRY ABC corrective type structure. Slight upside bias. No trade suggestions currently

    EURUSD Sell stop entry 1.367 1/2 @ 1.415, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.24 Large Scale primary Gartley reversal pattern identified. Weekly scale Trade PRZ not Met yet. Weekly

    GBPAUD Small scale bullish crab reversal

    GBPCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias

    GBPJPY No tradable patterns. Downside bias

    GBPNZD Entry Triggered 1.953 1/2 @ 1.91 1/2 @ 1.92 2.00 2.03, LT 2.10 Trade is Live Daily

    HKDJPY No tradable patterns. No bias

    NZDJPY Sell stop entry 86.00 1/2 @ 92.98, 1/2 @ 93.99 78 & 70 High ranking symmetry 5 wave EW pattern with Bearish Harmonic within Wave 4 and 5. Great trade setup Weekly

    NZDUSD Entry triggered 0.864 1/2 @ 0.88. 1/2 @ 0.885 0.876 & 0.86 Trade is Live Daily

    USDCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias

    USDHKD No tradable patterns. Downside bias

  • Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level

    Recommended

    Entry Price

    Current Stop Target Quick Note Time Frame

    USDJPY No tradable patterns.

    USDMXN Potential Bullish Gartley, Pattern rank is too low to suggest trade.

    USDSGD Potential Bullish Bat, PRZ Not Reached Yet

    USDTRY No tradable patterns.

    WTI CRUDE Sell stop entry 102.58 1/2 @ 106.96, 1/2 @ 107.61 99 & 94 High pattern rank Bearish Gartley. Great trade set up. Suggest 150% of normal position size . Very Close to triggering Daily

    BRENT CRUDE Very complex pattern, no trade suggested.

    GOLD No tradable patterns.

    SILVER Buy stop entry 20.00 1/2 @ 18.51, 1/2 @ 18.90 22 & 24 Possible Bullish Bat, PRZ reached. Looking for a move through 20 to trigger buy stop to entry Daily

    10 YEAR NOTE Bullish Bat Reversal confirmed, Minor Bearish cypher caused reversal. No trade Recommended

    30 YEAR BOND Buy stop entry 135.16 131.16 142.16 Reverse Head and Shoulders breaking out, Small long trade suggested Weekly

    SP500 No tradable patterns.

    NASDAQ 100 Possible Bullish Bat. Confirmed reversal. No Trade Recommended

    RUSSELL 2000 Possible Bullish Bat. Confirmed reversal. No Trade Recommended

    DJIA No tradable patterns.

    VIX VXX VXZ No tradable patterns.

    NIKKEI No tradable patterns. Downside bias

    SHANG HAI INDEX Sell stop entry 2185 1/2 @ 2261, 1/2 @ 2286 1980 Trade is Live Daily

    HENG SENG No tradable patterns. No bias

    JAKARTA Sell stop entry 4704 1/2 @ 4151, 1/2 @ 5209 4000 ENTRY WAS NOT TRIGGERED YET. TRADE IS LIVE

    BOMBAY SENSEX No tradable patterns. Upside bias

  • Forex

  • AUDCAD - Extended Butterfly setting up here. Clear impulse wave up from January low. One could easily fit this wave structure as a po ssible wave 3 of 5 up secondary wave. I

    believe its still worth considering for a harmonic trade setup. We have a nice price / momentum divergence on the last up wav e. Suggested sell stop to entry level is 1.016. Stop

    levels if triggered would be 1.0491 for 1/2 and 10452 for the remaining 1/2. Possible targets are .99 and .96.

  • AUDJPY - Trade was triggered on 4/15. Stops loss orders are live. Clear corrective type wave structure from A to D. X is very impulsive, which should contribute to a well behaved

    reversal here. Aggressive traders could dip in shorting here. For more conservative traders, waiting for a move below 95 is p rud ent. Sell stops to entry at 95, with stop loss levels at

    97.14 for 1/2 the position and 97.63 for one half the position are calculated. Targets of 93 and 89.

  • AUDNZD - Smaller scale harmonic repeating fractal. Complex flat corrective EW structure. If AUD weakens across the currency matrix th is could be a nice reversal.

    No Trade suggestion because pattern rank is too low.

  • AUDUSD- Entry was triggered at 0.9350 with targets of 0.91 and 0.88. suggested stops are now at 0.953 & 0.947

  • EURAUD - Buy stop entry at 1.488 still yet to trigger. Very nice AB = CD wave setting up here at .618% of the previous impulse wave. C learly a nice area to get long

    with the prevailing trend. Detrended oscillator confirms a moderately oversold reading as well. Buy stop to entry at 1.488 i s suggested with stops 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @

    1.424. Minimum expected target is 1.59

  • EURGBP Possible Minor wave three drive reversal pattern

  • EURJPY Corrective Symmetrical triangle. Slight upside bias despite the double top underneath a major top formation.

  • EURNZD Buy stop to entry was triggered 4/11/2014, stops are now at 1.578 for 1/2 the position and 1.572 for 1/2. Preceding structu re lacks the traits of a 5 wave im-

    pulse or extension (blow off) at X so we are less confident in this particular trade.

  • EURUSD Weekly scale corrective EW pattern suggests that the current up move from the 2012 low could be at a critical reversal junctu re. The Gartley PRZ of 1.401

    has not been tested yet but we think this pattern is of high enough rank to merit early short positions for aggressive trader s. No formal trade is suggested yet until the

    PRZ is reached for conservative traders. But if the PRZ gets hit a sell stop to entry at 1.367 is what we calculate. Stops at 1.424 and 1.415 would be used if filled. Poten-

    tial downside targets could be 1.24 or new lows long term.