aether analytics technical conspectus april 19,2014
TRANSCRIPT
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ther Analytics Weekly Technical Conspectus publ ish date : 4/19/2014
Author : Alex Bernal, CMT
805.252.7161
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DISCLAIMER
reliable, but no representation is made by us that such information is accurate or complete. The views
expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do
not undertake to advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.
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constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individualized or otherwise. Investments involve substantial risk,
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performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.
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The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the
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No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In
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held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without
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contained herein.
Report Details
Charts : Only markets that have critical trade setups or existing trades will be included.
Publishing schedule : Weekly, delivered Sunday evening
If any instrument was not covered in this weeks letter but you would still like a technical synopsis
Please feel free to skype me at alexbernal0 or email alex@aetheranalytics. com
Table of Contents
Section 1 : Quick Table Summary
Quick Glance Table
Current Trade Setups
Section 2 : Currencies
AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
EURCAD
EURGBP
EURJPY
EURNZD
EURTRY
EURUSD
GBPAUD
GBPCAD
GBPJPY
GBPNZD
HKDJPY
NZDJPY
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDHKD
USDJPY
USDMXN
USDSGD
USDTRY
Section 3 : Energy Complex
WTI Crude
Brent Crude
Section 4 : Financials
10 Year T Note
30 Year T Bond
Ultra Bond
Section 5 : Indices
SP 500
Nasdaq 100
Russell 2000
DJIA
VIX VXX VXZ
Nikkei
Shanghai
Heng Seng
Jakarta
Section 6 : Metals
Gold
Silver
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Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level
Recommended Entry
Price
Current Stops Targets Quick Note Time Frame
AUDCAD Sell stop to entry 1.06 1/2 @ 1.04, 1/2 @ 1.05 0.99 & 0.96 Bearish butterfly pattern. Possible wave 3 of 5 so I would suggest 3/4 of normal position size if traded. Daily
AUDJPY Entry 95.00 Triggered 1/2 @ 97.14 , 1/2 @ 97.63 (1) 93-92, (2) 89 -87 Trade is Live. Daily
AUDNZD Fractals Exist but pattern rank is not high enough for trade suggestions.
AUDUSD Entry 0.935 Triggered 1/2 @ 0.958, 1/2 @ 0.956 91 & 88 Trade is Live Daily
EURAUD Buy Stop Entry 1.488 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.5948 minimum Entry trigger very close to happening Weekly
EURCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias
EURGBP Possible Three Drives Reversal Pattern
EURJPY Clearly tracing out a corrective symmetrical triangle pattern. Breakout targets (150 or 134) long term
EURNZD Buy Stop Triggered 1.605 1/2 @ 1.578, 1/2 @ 1.572 1.64 & 1.70 Trade is live. Daily
EURTRY ABC corrective type structure. Slight upside bias. No trade suggestions currently
EURUSD Sell stop entry 1.367 1/2 @ 1.415, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.24 Large Scale primary Gartley reversal pattern identified. Weekly scale Trade PRZ not Met yet. Weekly
GBPAUD Small scale bullish crab reversal
GBPCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias
GBPJPY No tradable patterns. Downside bias
GBPNZD Entry Triggered 1.953 1/2 @ 1.91 1/2 @ 1.92 2.00 2.03, LT 2.10 Trade is Live Daily
HKDJPY No tradable patterns. No bias
NZDJPY Sell stop entry 86.00 1/2 @ 92.98, 1/2 @ 93.99 78 & 70 High ranking symmetry 5 wave EW pattern with Bearish Harmonic within Wave 4 and 5. Great trade setup Weekly
NZDUSD Entry triggered 0.864 1/2 @ 0.88. 1/2 @ 0.885 0.876 & 0.86 Trade is Live Daily
USDCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias
USDHKD No tradable patterns. Downside bias
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Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level
Recommended
Entry Price
Current Stop Target Quick Note Time Frame
USDJPY No tradable patterns.
USDMXN Potential Bullish Gartley, Pattern rank is too low to suggest trade.
USDSGD Potential Bullish Bat, PRZ Not Reached Yet
USDTRY No tradable patterns.
WTI CRUDE Sell stop entry 102.58 1/2 @ 106.96, 1/2 @ 107.61 99 & 94 High pattern rank Bearish Gartley. Great trade set up. Suggest 150% of normal position size . Very Close to triggering Daily
BRENT CRUDE Very complex pattern, no trade suggested.
GOLD No tradable patterns.
SILVER Buy stop entry 20.00 1/2 @ 18.51, 1/2 @ 18.90 22 & 24 Possible Bullish Bat, PRZ reached. Looking for a move through 20 to trigger buy stop to entry Daily
10 YEAR NOTE Bullish Bat Reversal confirmed, Minor Bearish cypher caused reversal. No trade Recommended
30 YEAR BOND Buy stop entry 135.16 131.16 142.16 Reverse Head and Shoulders breaking out, Small long trade suggested Weekly
SP500 No tradable patterns.
NASDAQ 100 Possible Bullish Bat. Confirmed reversal. No Trade Recommended
RUSSELL 2000 Possible Bullish Bat. Confirmed reversal. No Trade Recommended
DJIA No tradable patterns.
VIX VXX VXZ No tradable patterns.
NIKKEI No tradable patterns. Downside bias
SHANG HAI INDEX Sell stop entry 2185 1/2 @ 2261, 1/2 @ 2286 1980 Trade is Live Daily
HENG SENG No tradable patterns. No bias
JAKARTA Sell stop entry 4704 1/2 @ 4151, 1/2 @ 5209 4000 ENTRY WAS NOT TRIGGERED YET. TRADE IS LIVE
BOMBAY SENSEX No tradable patterns. Upside bias
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Forex
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AUDCAD - Extended Butterfly setting up here. Clear impulse wave up from January low. One could easily fit this wave structure as a po ssible wave 3 of 5 up secondary wave. I
believe its still worth considering for a harmonic trade setup. We have a nice price / momentum divergence on the last up wav e. Suggested sell stop to entry level is 1.016. Stop
levels if triggered would be 1.0491 for 1/2 and 10452 for the remaining 1/2. Possible targets are .99 and .96.
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AUDJPY - Trade was triggered on 4/15. Stops loss orders are live. Clear corrective type wave structure from A to D. X is very impulsive, which should contribute to a well behaved
reversal here. Aggressive traders could dip in shorting here. For more conservative traders, waiting for a move below 95 is p rud ent. Sell stops to entry at 95, with stop loss levels at
97.14 for 1/2 the position and 97.63 for one half the position are calculated. Targets of 93 and 89.
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AUDNZD - Smaller scale harmonic repeating fractal. Complex flat corrective EW structure. If AUD weakens across the currency matrix th is could be a nice reversal.
No Trade suggestion because pattern rank is too low.
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AUDUSD- Entry was triggered at 0.9350 with targets of 0.91 and 0.88. suggested stops are now at 0.953 & 0.947
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EURAUD - Buy stop entry at 1.488 still yet to trigger. Very nice AB = CD wave setting up here at .618% of the previous impulse wave. C learly a nice area to get long
with the prevailing trend. Detrended oscillator confirms a moderately oversold reading as well. Buy stop to entry at 1.488 i s suggested with stops 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @
1.424. Minimum expected target is 1.59
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EURGBP Possible Minor wave three drive reversal pattern
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EURJPY Corrective Symmetrical triangle. Slight upside bias despite the double top underneath a major top formation.
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EURNZD Buy stop to entry was triggered 4/11/2014, stops are now at 1.578 for 1/2 the position and 1.572 for 1/2. Preceding structu re lacks the traits of a 5 wave im-
pulse or extension (blow off) at X so we are less confident in this particular trade.
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EURUSD Weekly scale corrective EW pattern suggests that the current up move from the 2012 low could be at a critical reversal junctu re. The Gartley PRZ of 1.401
has not been tested yet but we think this pattern is of high enough rank to merit early short positions for aggressive trader s. No formal trade is suggested yet until the
PRZ is reached for conservative traders. But if the PRZ gets hit a sell stop to entry at 1.367 is what we calculate. Stops at 1.424 and 1.415 would be used if filled. Poten-
tial downside targets could be 1.24 or new lows long term.