***Aff. & Advantage – Extensions***

Alternative / Renewable Energy

Latin American renewables investment good

Increasing U.S. investment in alternative energy in Latin America reduces foreign oil dependenceCharlene Barshefsky, senior international partner at Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP (WilmerHale) and former U.S. trade representative (USTR) from 1997 to 2001 and as acting and deputy USTR from 1993 to 1996, Shannon K. O'Neil, the fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, Et al, 2008, U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, Report of an Independent Task Force, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/uzsz-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 4/18/2014U.S. anxieties over dependence on foreign energy resources are usually centered on the Middle East, but the United States relies on the western hemisphere (including Canada) for nearly half its oil. Recently, resurgent resource nationalism, production bottlenecks, and the politicization of energy trade have raised concerns that Latin America may become a less reliable supplier and drive up global energy prices. At the same time, the region presents abundant opportunities for new investment in traditional and alternative energy resources—making it critical that U.S. and Latin American governments both confront the energy challenge and seize the opportunity of greater cooperation.

Economic engagement on alternative energy significantly boosts U.S.-Latin American relations. This necessarily spills over to climate change and sustainability cooperationCharlene Barshefsky, senior international partner at Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP (WilmerHale) and former U.S. trade representative (USTR) from 1997 to 2001 and as acting and deputy USTR from 1993 to 1996, Shannon K. O'Neil, the fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, Et al, 2008, U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, Report of an Independent Task Force, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/uzsz-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 4/18/2014As the United States and other nations look to diversify their energy sources and reduce dependence on oil, Latin America presents a unique opportunity for engagement and cooperation. Latin America already leads the United States in the production and use of hydroelectric power, which supplies 23 percent of its energy needs (as compared to less than 3 percent in the United States). The region has also made investments in solar- and wind-powered technologies, particularly in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. Cooperation on alternative energy research and production could become an important component of U.S.-Latin America relations in the years ahead. Partnering with Latin American nations in the development of alternative energy sources would allow the United States to build and deepen diplomatic relationships through joint initiatives on development, climate change, and environmental sustainability. Two areas in particular—biofuels and nuclear energy—present important and immediate opportunities.

CUBA

EU relations Adv. Internal links

The European Union is stepping up pressure on U.S. to change its Cuba policyNile Bowie, political analyst-Maylasia, April 16, 2014, “Cuba’s economic reforms: Socialism with neoliberal characteristics?,” RT, http://rt.com/op-edge/cuba-economic-reforms-market-852/, Accessed 4/18/2014As more emphasis is placed on making Cuba an attractive destination for foreign investment, Europe is expected to become more vocal in supporting a change in US policy toward the island nation. Cuba’s diversification of trade relations also comes at a time when the leftist government of Venezuela faces protests and serious economic difficulties. The leadership in Caracas supplies cheap oil to Cuba and also pays for Cuban doctors and other medical specialists sent to Venezuela, while some economists claim that Cuba receives over $6 billion per year from this arrangement, representing a more significant subsidy than that which the island received from the Soviet Union, which paid above-market prices for sugar and other goods. If attempts to enact regime change in Venezuela are realized, it will have detrimental short-term effects on Cuba, which the leadership in Havana seems to be well aware of. Much like other socialist governments that survived the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba is now reforming its economy to conform to global capitalism, but unlike other countries that have empowered their oligarchical elite through marketization, leaders in Havana claim that the primary objective of attracting foreign capital is to support social programs, the socio-economic development of the country, and the distribution of wealth among all Cuban citizens.

Latin America Adv. Internal links

Current Cuba policy undermines U.S. relations with Latin AmericaReal Politik, Staff Writer, March 17, 2014, “U.S.-Cuba Relations: The Times They Are a-Changin,” Chicago Now, http://www.chicagonow.com/real-politik/2014/03/u-s-cuba-relations-the-times-they-are-a-changin/, Accessed 4/14/2014What's more, America's Cuba policy has created a policy gap that separates America from other regional powerhouses in Latin America, such as Mexico and Brazil, that have consistently recognized the Castro regime. This opening has been exploited by U.S. foes, mostly recently Venezuela, to antagonize successive U.S. administrations. Normalizing Cuba policy neutralizes those tactics.

The embargo functions as an enabler for Cuba integration within the regionPeter Schechter, Director and Jason Marczak, Director Deputy, both at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council, February 2014, “US-Cuba: A New Public Survey Supports Policy Change,” http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/2014cubapoll/ US-CubaPoll.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014The embargo has become the Cuban government’s “enabler.” Cuba today enjoys the benefits of increasing political support in the region, growing financial integration with much of the world, and the largesse of politically-compatible neighbors while making few concessions to its own people. Rather than accelerating an end to the Castro brothers’ regime, the embargo has become the all-encompassing excuse for inaction on the island. Cubans remain repressed, controlled, and largely unable to forge their own destinies.

Embargo Bad – Lifting embargo solvency advocates

Congress and the President should immediately act to end or lessen the embargoThe Economist, Staff Writer, April 5, 2014, “The Cuban embargo: If not now, when?,” http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/ 21600117-would-be-especially-good-time-change-americas-relations-cuba-if-not-now, Accessed 4/22/2014There are still plenty of diehard anti-Castro figures in Washington. But calling the arguments they marshal threadbare is unkind to threads. Cuba does not threaten American security. It is playing a constructive role in the peace process between Colombia’s government and the FARC guerrillas. Its political system is nasty and undemocratic, but it is buttressed, not undermined, by the embargo. (The reverse is true of the standing of the United States in Latin America.) Waiting for the Castros to die makes no sense when Venezuela’s crisis presents an opportunity now to cement the process of liberalisation in Cuba. If Congress will not budge, Mr Obama could use his executive authority to thaw relations further—loosening travel restrictions, taking Cuba off the list of state sponsors of terrorism, and trying to negotiate a swap of prisoners. But that is second best. The embargo increasingly exists only because it happens to be there.

Embargo Bad – Fails / Counter-productive

The embargo is pointless and punishes Cuban citizensMichael J. Totten, contributing editor for World Affairs, April 14, 2014, “Letter from Cuba: To Embargo or Not,” World Affairs journal, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/letter-cuba-embargo-or-not?utm_source=World+Affairs+Newsletter&utm_campaign=8234c0c406-April_14_2014_WAJ_Totten&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f83b38c5c7-8234c0c406-294556989, Accessed 4/22/2014The regime does want Cuba to prosper, but within limits. Otherwise its officials wouldn’t even consider economic reform. They would just plod along North Korean–style. Therefore, keeping the US embargo in place will sooner or later force them to choose prosperity or power. They cannot have both. The Communist Party might finally cry uncle. It’s possible. If so, the sanctions will finally produce their intended effect—the democratization of Cuba. But if not, the embargo will continue looking like a spiteful anachronism that pointlessly punishes Cuban citizens who have already been punished enough by their own government.

Current U.S. policy toward Cuba is a failurePeter Schechter, Director and Jason Marczak, Director Deputy, both at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council, February 2014, “US-Cuba: A New Public Survey Supports Policy Change,” http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/2014cubapoll/ US-CubaPoll.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014US policy toward Cuba—a web of laws and regulations designed to force regime change in Havana—has not produced its intended results as Fidel Castro maintained power for five decades, and, in 2006, successfully transferred power to Raúl Castro. The Cuban government is also not wholly isolated from the United States. Select US agricultural commodities and medicine/medical devices are regularly exported to the island under an exemption to the embargo passed by Congress in 2000. It is also estimated that approximately a half million US visitors traveled to Cuba last year.

The embargo is a comprehensive failureJeffrey Goldberg, Staff Writer, April 15, 2014, “Cuba Embargo Is a Complete Failure,” Newsmax, http://www.newsmax.com/Jeffrey-Goldberg/Cuba-Embargo-Castro-Twitter/2014/04/15/id/565730/, Accessed 4/22/2014The U.S. government has, for more than five decades, worked for regime change in Cuba. The embargo is designed to destabilize the regime, as are many of the clandestine programs. (The Bay of Pigs invasion was perhaps the crudest, most obvious, attempt by the U.S. to rid Cuba of Communism — also, probably the least successful.) There is no evidence that the Castro brothers — the father of the revolution, Fidel, and his younger brother, Raul, who currently rules the country, will ever die. Even if they do die, there’s nothing in the record to suggest that the U.S. government will have success removing the leaders who follow. U.S. policy toward Cuba has been a comprehensive failure.

Now is a key time for normalization of relationsLeon Neyfakh, Staff Writer, April 18, 2014, “Cuba, you owe us $7 billion,” Boston Globe, http://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2014/04/ 18/cuba-you-owe-billion/jHAufRfQJ9Bx24TuzQyBNO/story.html, Accessed 4/21/2014Leaders from around the world have been calling on the United States to dismantle the embargo for more than 20 years, and recent polls show that a majority of Americans are in favor of lifting it. With the

repressive Castro regime seemingly nearing its end, a “normalization” of relations between the countries seems increasingly within reach. That would appear to spell an end sometime soon for the embargo, which in the popular imagination stands as a sort of political weapon that was designed to cripple Castro and stem the tide of communism.

Embargo Bad – Undermines democratic reforms

The embargo undermines democratic reforms in CubaAdrian Brito, the University of Puerto Rico School of Law, April 8, 2014, “Cuba & the U.S: The Case Against the Cuban Embargo,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adrian-brito/cuba-the-us-the-case-agai_b_5107787.html, Accessed 4/22/2014And let me be perfectly clear. I'm not an apologist of the human rights violations that the Cuban government commits against political dissidents; neither do I support the continuation of their communist-stalinist model that controls virtually all the means of production. Cuba should open their markets, allow free and democratic elections and move towards a mixed economy. However, the Cuban Embargo undermines the efforts to achieve this goal, as it does not permit Cuba to trade freely with the United States, which is the biggest economy in the world.

Rapproachment works. Ending the embargo reduces anti-Americanism and gives the U.S. leverage to shape Cuban democracyAdrian Brito, the University of Puerto Rico School of Law, April 8, 2014, “Cuba & the U.S: The Case Against the Cuban Embargo,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adrian-brito/cuba-the-us-the-case-agai_b_5107787.html, Accessed 4/22/2014Besides, it is also important to note that "a majority of Americans, and an even greater majority of Floridians, now favor normalizing relations or engaging more directly with the Cuban government" -- according to a non-partisan survey conducted the Atlantic Council. A clear historical example of how economic engagement promotes freer societies is Willy Brandt's Ostpolitik and Kissinger's déténte. Brandt, who was President of West Germany from 1969 to 1974, believed that change through rapprochement would lead to the introduction of Western-style economic principles to East Berliners, who would eventually realize that their authoritarian government had some serious flaws. Along the same lines, Kissinger's déténte was responsible for opening relations with China and negotiating the Paris Peace Accords, which put an end to the Vietnam War. Rapprochement works. Kissinger is unquestionably one of America's greatest foreign policy strategists and did not believe isolationism was the right way to defeat communism. Actually, Kissinger expressly advised President Ford to end the embargo: In the first six months of your presidency, you should launch an initiative to put to rest the half century of mutual enmity between the United States and Cuba. Doing so represents an opportunity of both major foreign policy reward and low domestic political risk. Mr. President, a bold initiative with Cuba, early in your presidency, will restore Americas credibility and demonstrate your political courage with the Cuban people, in the hemisphere and across the globe. By getting rid of the Embargo, the Castro Regime will lose its excuse for economic underperformance and its anti-imperalist rhethoric will be greatly undermined. As more American investment pours into the Cuban economy, the U.S will have more leverage in the political future of Cuba, not the other way around. That's classic American foreign policy.

The embargo just empowers the Cuban government to oppress the peopleMichael J. Totten, contributing editor for World Affairs, April 14, 2014, “Letter from Cuba: To Embargo or Not,” World Affairs journal, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/letter-cuba-embargo-or-not?utm_source=World+Affairs+Newsletter&utm_campaign=8234c0c406-April_14_2014_WAJ_Totten&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f83b38c5c7-8234c0c406-294556989, Accessed 4/22/2014

For years now, the embargo has appeared to me as outdated as it has been ineffective. The Chinese government, while less repressive nowadays than Cuba’s, likewise defies internationally accepted standards of human rights, yet it’s one of America’s biggest trading partners. And the embargo against Cuba gives the Castro regime the excuse it desperately needs for its citizens’ economic misery. As ever, it is all the fault of the Yanquis. Cuba’s people are poor not thanks to communism but because of America.

Embargo Bad - trade

Every day the embargo stays U.S. businesses lose outThe Economist, Staff Writer, April 5, 2014, “Investment in Cuba, Strait talk,” http://www.economist.com/news/americas/ 21600128-cuba-eases-investment-rules-many-cuban-americans-turn-against-embargo-strait-talk, Accessed 4/22/2014Despite their failings, Cuba’s new rules are a reminder of how inflexible United States law remains. Because of the 53-year-old embargo against Cuba, some Cuban-Americans fear they will be left behind as investors from Brazil, China, Russia and Europe move in. Already Tampa, on Florida’s west coast, is vying for a greater share of Cuban business when the embargo is lifted. “Every day we’re missing opportunity,” says Bob Rohrlack, head of the Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce. In Miami people talk of a tipping point. Alberto Ibargüen, a former publisher of the Miami Herald, says demographic trends that began decades ago have finally softened the mood towards Cuba (though “absolutely not” towards the Castro regime). If American restrictions on all tourism to the island were lifted, “you’d get a couple of letters to the editor.”

Reforms are advancing now

Cuba is expanding economic liberalization reformsThe Economist, Staff Writer, April 5, 2014, “The Cuban embargo: If not now, when?,” http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/ 21600117-would-be-especially-good-time-change-americas-relations-cuba-if-not-now, Accessed 4/22/2014Whatever logic there was in this is being undermined in four ways. First, the Castros are becoming ever less communist. The process of economic liberalisation under Raúl took another step forward this week with the approval of a new law on foreign direct investment (see article). Like other moves towards capitalism, this one is halting: the state will still be an intrusive presence and firms will have little say over hiring and firing. But the law will slash tax rates for new investments and allow foreigners into new sectors of the economy. It confirms Cuba’s overall trajectory towards freer enterprise.

Terrorist List – Causes anti-Americanism

Keeping Cuba on the terrorist list provides political fodder for hardlinersReal Politik, Staff Writer, March 17, 2014, “U.S.-Cuba Relations: The Times They Are a-Changin,” Chicago Now, http://www.chicagonow.com/real-politik/2014/03/u-s-cuba-relations-the-times-they-are-a-changin/, Accessed 4/14/2014While much opposition to improving relations with Cuba has rightly centered on the Castro regime's horrific human rights abuses, Coll noted that America has normal commercial and diplomatic relations with several countries - such as China, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia and Jordan - with equally dismal human rights records. The panelists also pointed out that Cuba is 1 of 4 countries on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism - the other three are Sudan, Syria and Iran. Unlike those countries, Cuba has not initiated an act of terror against the United States since the Cuba Missile Crisis of 1962. These inconsistencies are cheap political fodder that America's enemies can use to question U.S. policies in other parts of the world.

Mexico

Huge potential for shale development

Mexico has a huge potential for shale developmentRachael Seeley, Editor, April 16, 2014, “Energy reform could unlock Mexico's shale resource potential,” Oil & Gas Journal, http://www.ogj.com/articles/uogr/print/volume-2/issue-2/energy-reform-could-unlock-mexico-s-shale-resource-potential.html, Accessed 4/24/2014The oil and gas industry is watching with great interest as energy reforms unfold in Mexico. The country has taken the first steps toward opening its energy industry to outside investment that could unlock the potential of its massive unconventional resource. Constitutional reforms, enacted in December, ease investment restrictions and tax obligations for state oil company Pemex and open a path for investment from outside the country for the first time in 75 years. Mexico holds a sizable unconventional resource base. With an estimated 545 tcf of technically recoverable shale resources, the country ranks sixth in the world in terms of shale gas potential, behind China, Argentina, Algeria, the US, and Canada (Table 1).

Mexican shale development is essential to meet fuel needsNick Miroff, Staff Writer, April 19, 2014, “The fracking divide: Mexico’s oil frontier beckons U.S. drillers in wake of new law,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-fracking-divide-mexicos-oil-frontier-beckons-us-drillers-in-wake-of-new-law/2014/04/19/1951ba0c-e8ff-452d-84bd-d488f730991c_story.html, Accessed 4/21/2014Despite Mexico’s abundant resources, the country’s soaring demand for electricity and meager pipeline infrastructure have left it dependent on imported gas to cover roughly a third of its needs. In some parts of the country, natural gas prices are four times as high as those in the United States. It is one reason Mexican officials say the shale reserves are crucial to the country's economic and energy development, while advancing the broader goal of “North American energy independence” — making the entire free-trade zone self-sufficient for its fuel needs. Cross-border pipelines are also being added. With cheaper gas, Mexico could lower electricity costs at the manufacturing and assembly plants that have become a pillar of the nation's economy and that are increasingly competitive with China’s. “This is critical to the re-industrialization of North America,” said Javier Treviño, the head of the energy commission in the lower house of Mexico’s Congress. “Mexico needs to develop these resources, or else we’ll be left behind.”

Mexico has huge potential to reduce U.S. foreign oil dependenceClifford Krause, Staff Writer, April 21, 2014, “‘Saudi America’: Mirage? Challenges Lie Ahead for North American Oil Production,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/22/business/energy-environment/challenges-lie-ahead-for-north-american-oil-production.html?_r=0, Accessed 4/24/2014At a time when Russia is saber-rattling and the Middle East is in turmoil, a welcome geopolitical trifecta could be in the making. The United States is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s top oil producer. Canada’soil sands have vaulted the country to energy superpower status. Mexico is embarking on a historic constitutional energy overhaul that its president promises will propel the country’s economy.

Venezuela

More violence is inevitable

Venezuela is in utter chaos. There is zero trust between the public and governmentMichael Shifter, President of the Inter-American Dialogue, March 25, 2014, “US Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Statement before U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3552, Accessed 4/14/2014Today there is, for good reason, great concern about the situation in Venezuela. The scenario that many of us had warned of and feared these past dozen years – a surge in violence and dramatic deterioration of the already minimal human rights and democratic safeguards – has unfortunately come to pass. The outlook is ominous. No one knows with certainty how far the Venezuela government is prepared to go in using repressive tactics against peaceful protesters, persecuting political opponents, and restricting press freedom. Since mid-February, violence in Venezuela has claimed more than 30 lives. In such a polarized society, with high levels of mistrust and rancor, anything can happen.

Dialogue between Maduro and the opposition will inevitably break downCynthia J. Arnson, director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Carlos De La Torre, director of international studies and professor of sociology at the University of Kentucky, Lexington, April 16, 2014, “Viva el Populismo? The Tense Future of Latin American Politics,” Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141191/cynthia-j-arnson-and-carlos-de-la-torre/viva-el-populismo, Accessed 4/21/2014Members of the international community have shown some initial success in brokering a dialogue between the Maduro government and some opposition leaders. But after 16 years of Chavismo, Venezuela has been polarized into starkly antagonistic camps that make democratic dialogue difficult. For too long, Venezuela’s political struggles have been presented as epic confrontations between good and evil, between the representatives of the people and their enemies, the “squalid ones,” the pitiyankis (little Yankees). The opposition, which has managed to unite at times of national elections, remains divided over how to confront the regime. Some leaders -- along with the student movement -- have refused to join the current talks with the government. Underneath it all, the government and the opposition have radically different visions of political as well as economic organization, with little common vocabulary as to what democracy means or represents. How dialogue can succeed in such an environment is difficult to imagine.

New rounds of violence in Venezuela are inevitableCynthia J. Arnson, director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Carlos De La Torre, director of international studies and professor of sociology at the University of Kentucky, Lexington, April 16, 2014, “Viva el Populismo? The Tense Future of Latin American Politics,” Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141191/cynthia-j-arnson-and-carlos-de-la-torre/viva-el-populismo, Accessed 4/21/2014Over time, it is unlikely that Maduro will be able to arrest Venezuela’s downward economic spiral and the multiple inefficiencies spawned by the economy’s overreliance on oil. Optimists see in the country’s continued economic decline an opportunity for a less fractured opposition to build majority support. Yet democratic alternation by means of the popular vote is of dubious interest to the regime’s most ardent defenders in and out of government. In such an environment, increased radicalization of both sides is

likely, along with further outbreaks of violence. Whether and how cracks in the regime emerge -- especially in the armed forces -- may well define the country’s future.

China Crowd-Out Advantage Extension

China crowd-out – U.S. hegemony scenario extension

China is rapidly expanding economic engagement in Latin America. This is piggybacked by deep political and military engagement that seeks to displace U.S. hegemonyIlan Berman, Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council, March 25, 2014, “U.S. Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Testimony before the House Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20140325/101958/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-BermanI-20140325.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014In contrast to that of both Russia and Iran, China’s footprint in the Americas is primarily economic in nature. Over the past several years, Chinese firms have established a significant “on the ground” presence in various economic sectors throughout Central and South America, including energy, mining, construction and telecommunications. In tandem, China’s trade with countries of the region has increased exponentially, rising from $49 billion annually in 2004 to $260 billion a year in 2012. This tracks with China’s perception of the Americas as an attractive supply source for foodstuffs, as well as a lucrative destination for Chinese goods and a significant market for Chinese labor. This deepening economic activity has been mirrored by expanding political outreach. Then-Chinese President Hu Jintao’s 2004 tour of the region launched an active schedule of official visits by top Chinese officials and policymakers to Latin American states (Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico and Peru prominent among them). The number of concrete cooperation initiatives has ballooned as well; between the years 2000 and 2011, an estimated 121 bilateral agreements were signed between China and various countries in the region. China has also increased its participation in assorted Latin American regional organizations, joining the Organization of American States as a “permanent observer” in 2004 and becoming a “donor member” of the Inter-American Development Bank in 2008. Militarily, meanwhile, China has pursued a multi-faceted strategy designed to maximize its contacts with, and influence among, Latin American states. Experts have identified five distinct dimensions of this outreach: humanitarian assistance, peacekeeping, military exchanges, arms sales, and technology transfer. Through its efforts on these fronts, Beijing has secured Bolivia, Venezuela and Ecuador as arms clients, and significantly bolstered its interaction with regional militaries through personnel exchanges, joint maneuvers and cooperative trainings. These public activities have been matched by more quiet—and questionable—ones. For example, China has become a contributor to Argentina’s nuclear program, despite the growing insolvency of the government of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in Buenos Aires. It has assisted both Venezuela and Bolivia in the development and launch of surveillance satellites. And it has committed, by proxy, to the construction of a massive 50-mile passageway for maritime transit between the Pacific and Atlantic in Nicaragua, despite the astronomical projected price-tag (an estimated $40 billion). These initiatives, and others, suggest that Beijing sees the region at least in part as an arena for strategic competition, and one where the PRC has the ability to significantly improve its geopolitical position. All of the initiatives above are consistent with China’s larger foreign policy vision. Since the late 1990s, Beijing has pursued a “going out” policy, which has been described as “a strategy designed to systematically promote exports, gain access to needed resources, and accelerate the development of its multilateral enterprises.” Latin America fits squarely into this initiative as both a marketplace and a venue for Chinese soft power, to the point where China and Latin America have become “essential economic partners.” China’s engagement in the Western Hemisphere likewise tracks with its long-standing desire for a “multipolar world” in which America’s perceived hegemony in international affairs is diminished. These rationales go a long way toward explaining why China’s relations with the region

remain largely unaltered, despite a year of tremendous political change in the Americas following the death of Hugo Chavez, and a significant domestic transition in China with the ascension of Xi Jinping to the presidency of the PRC.

China crowd-out – Climate change scenario

Chinese economic engagement risks derailing Latin American commitments to reducing climate emissionsGuy Edwards, research fellow at the Center for Environmental Studies at Brown University and J. Timmons Roberts, the Ittleson professor of Environmental Studies and Sociology at Brown University, and a nonresident senior fellow with the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, March 2014, “A High-Carbon Partnership? Chinese-Latin American Relations in a Carbon-Constrained World, The Brookings Institution, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/03/ high%20carbon%20partnership%20edwards%20roberts/high%20carbon%20partnership%20v3.pdf, Accessed 4/15/2014China’s rapidly increasing investment, trade and loans in Latin America may be entrenching high-carbon development pathways in the region, a trend scarcely mentioned in policy circles. High-carbon activities in clude the extraction of fossil fuels and other natural resources, expansion of large-scale agriculture and the energy-intensive stages of processing natural resources into intermediate goods. This paper ad-dresses three examples, including Chinese investments in Venezuela’s oil sector and a Costa Rican oil refinery, and Chinese investment in and purchases of Brazilian soybeans. We pose the question of whether there is a tie between China’s role in opening up vast resources in Latin America and the way those nations make national climate policy and how they behave at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations. We focus on the period between the 2009 Copenhagen round of negotiations and the run-up to the Paris negotiations scheduled for 2015, when the UNFCCC will attempt to finalize a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. China and Latin America have a critical role to play to ensure progress is made before the 2015 deadline, since they together account for approximately 40 per cent of total global greenhouse gas emissions. Several Latin American nations are world leaders in having reached high levels of human development while emitting very low levels of greenhouse gases. Several have publically committed to ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. Staying on or moving to low-carbon pathways is critical for these countries, but substantial Chinese investments in natural re sources and commodities —when combined with those of other nations and firms—run the risk of taking the region in an unsustainable direction.

Latin America is in a unique position to influence global climate change Lucy Jay-Kennedy, Senior Media Manager, Public Affairs, April 4, 2014, “Latin America Set for Key Role in 2014 Climate Change Agenda,” World Economic Forum, http://www.weforum.org/news/latin-america-set-key-role-2014-climate-change-agenda, Accessed 4/16/2014Latin America has a unique opportunity this year to reposition the region in the international agenda on climate change. In December, Lima will host this year’s most important climate negotiation session, the Conference of the Parties (COP), a prelude to the 2015 agreement on climate change to be signed in Paris. The former deadlock between the United States and China on climate change has been lifted, paving the way for a new type of negotiation. “Latin America can position an aggressive agenda” in the panel on climate change, said Manuel Pulgar-Vidal Otalora, Minister of Environment of Peru. Governments in the region are working with the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNECLAC) to develop policies to adapt to climate change, the minister said. The important goals and actions being taken in Latin America to adapt to climate change and reduce emissions could be leveraged at COP to advance the climate change agenda, said Renat Heuberger, Chief Executive Officer and Deputy Chairman of South Pole Carbon, Switzerland: “What if Latin American countries could unite their voice and signal that a movement is starting?”

Climate change is anthropogenic and causes extinction. Adaptation is not an optionDeborah Snow and Peter Hannam, Staff Writers, March 31, 2014, “Climate change could make humans extinct, warns health expert,” Sydney Morning Herald, http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-could-make-humans-extinct-warns-health-expert-20140330-35rus.html, Accessed 4/22/2014The Earth is warming so rapidly that unless humans can arrest the trend, we risk becoming ''extinct'' as a species, a leading Australian health academic has warned. Helen Berry, associate dean in the faculty of health at the University of Canberra, said while the Earth has been warmer and colder at different points in the planet's history, the rate of change has never been as fast as it is today. ''What is remarkable, and alarming, is the speed of the change since the 1970s, when we started burning a lot of fossil fuels in a massive way,'' she said. ''We can't possibly evolve to match this rate [of warming] and, unless we get control of it, it will mean our extinction eventually.'' Professor Berry is one of three leading academics who have contributed to the health chapter of a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report due on Monday. She and co-authors Tony McMichael, of the Australian National University, and Colin Butler, of the University of Canberra, have outlined the health risks of rapid global warming in a companion piece for The Conversation, also published on Monday. The three warn that the adverse effects on population health and social stability have been ''missing from the discussion'' on climate change. ''Human-driven climate change poses a great threat, unprecedented in type and scale, to wellbeing, health and perhaps even to human survival,'' they write.

China crowd-out – Climate change scenario extension

Latin America is essential to the fight on climate changeLucy Jay-Kennedy, Senior Media Manager, Public Affairs, April 4, 2014, “Latin America Set for Key Role in 2014 Climate Change Agenda,” World Economic Forum, http://www.weforum.org/news/latin-america-set-key-role-2014-climate-change-agenda, Accessed 4/16/2014 “Latin America brings unique assets and liabilities in the fight against climate change. The region is home to the Amazon Basin, and can therefore contribute to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. As the most highly urbanized region in the world, Latin America must develop efficient, environmentally friendly urban transport,” said Carlos E. Represas, Member of the Board, Swiss Re, Mexico. Preventive and curative action is required to address climate change. The cost of natural disasters and extreme weather events drains public resources, and credit agencies now assess the ability of a government to withstand those costs. “Risk management of the consequences of climate change is very important,” said Represas.

China’s push for economic engagement undermines Latin American climate change policiesGuy Edwards, research fellow at the Center for Environmental Studies at Brown University and J. Timmons Roberts, the Ittleson professor of Environmental Studies and Sociology at Brown University, and a nonresident senior fellow with the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, March 2014, “A High-Carbon Partnership? Chinese-Latin American Relations in a Carbon-Constrained World, The Brookings Institution, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/03/ high%20carbon%20partnership%20edwards%20roberts/high%20carbon%20partnership%20v3.pdf, Accessed 4/15/2014Chinese investments and imports of Latin American commodities may be strengthening the relative power of political and commercial domestic constituencies and of “dirty” ministries (e.g. ministries of mining, agriculture or energy) vis-à-vis environmental and climate change ministries and departments. These “cleaner” ministries are traditionally weak and marginalized actors in the region. China may thus be in advertently undermining Latin American countries’ attempts to promote climate change policies by rein forcing and strengthening actors within those coun tries and governments that do not prioritize climate change and who have often seen environmental ef forts as an impediment to economic growth.

Latin American is essential to successful global climate change initiatives. Economic engagement with China is a disastrous high-carbon relationshipGuy Edwards, research fellow at the Center for Environmental Studies at Brown University and J. Timmons Roberts, the Ittleson professor of Environmental Studies and Sociology at Brown University, and a nonresident senior fellow with the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, March 2014, “A High-Carbon Partnership? Chinese-Latin American Relations in a Carbon-Constrained World, The Brookings Institution, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/03/ high%20carbon%20partnership%20edwards%20roberts/high%20carbon%20partnership%20v3.pdf, Accessed 4/15/2014China and Latin America are critical to the success of any effort to address climate change. Together, China and Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for approximately 19 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 and roughly 40 percent of total global greenhouse gas emissions. The

rapidly expanding political, economic and commercial ties be tween China and Latin America have far reaching im plications for the 2015 Paris outcome. Progress at the UNFCCC negotiations will in part be contingent upon whether China and Latin American countries can ef fectively reduce the environmental impact of their relations. Further, it will be necessary to build common initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to climate impacts and prioritize low-carbon development into their relations and economies. Staying on or moving to low-carbon pathways is critical for those Latin American countries that regard climate change as a serious threat to their prosperity and security this century. While increasing trade with China has a strong appeal as a way to foster economic growth and build diversi fied “south to south” partnerships, in the long run, building a high-carbon partnership could be disas trous for both Latin America and the world.

Iran Crowd-Out Advantage Extension

Iran – Venezuela internals

Iranian influence in Venezuela poses a huge threat to the U.S.Ilan Berman, Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council, March 25, 2014, “U.S. Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Testimony before the House Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20140325/101958/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-BermanI-20140325.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014Although signs of Iran’s presence in Latin America have been evident for some time, the U.S. government only truly became seized of the issue in the wake of a foiled October 2011 assassination attempt on Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States by elements of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. The incident jolted official Washington awake to the very real threat Iran now poses south of the U.S. border. This presence is not entirely new. Iran has exhibited some level of activity in the Americas since the 1980s, when its chief terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, became entrenched in the so-called “Triple Frontier” where Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay meet. But the Iranian regime’s formal outreach to the region is significantly more recent, and largely an outgrowth of the warm personal relations between former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez. These bonds—rooted in a shared revolutionary worldview—positioned the Chavez regime as a “gateway” into the region for the Islamic Republic, and facilitated Iran’s efforts to build ties to other sympathetic regimes (most prominently those of Evo Morales in Bolivia and Rafael Correa in Ecuador).

Latin American Relations Advantage Extensions

A2: Relations high now

Better relations might be inevitable but that’s a long time awayBryan Bender, Staff Writer, April 20, 2014, “Cuba, US are warily, slowly improving relations,” Boston Globe, Accessed 4/21/2014, http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2014/04/20/cuba-and-united-states-are-warily-slowly-thawing-relations/ LDEqbKk2hkk4cVn22PuYDO/story.html, For longtime Cuban officials like Gladys Rodriquez, there remains a deep sense that the road to normalization will require more struggle. “I will admit that I still believe the day the United States will lift the blockade or embargo is far away,” said Rodriquez, an official at Cuba’s National Council of Heritage. She has worked for more than a decade with Boston-based Finca Vagia Foundation to restore the Cuban legacy of American novelist Ernest Hemingway, a project McGovern helped launch and that, like the broader relationship, has suffered from some fits and start. “But I do have the conviction that sooner or later, the process we are all waiting for shall take place and our two countries will have normal relations,” she said.

Latin American leaders see U.S. non-engagement as hypocriticalPeter Schechter, Director and Jason Marczak, Director Deputy, both at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council, February 2014, “US-Cuba: A New Public Survey Supports Policy Change,” http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/2014cubapoll/ US-CubaPoll.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014Latin America is the United States’ fastest growing trade partner. As Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto likes to point out, a billion dollars of trade passes through the US-Mexico border every day. But our allies in the region are finding it increasingly difficult to defend our Cuba policy. These regional allies point out that the United States negotiates with Iran. The president of Vietnam, a country with which the United States went to war and continues to be a one-party state, was welcomed to the White House in July 2013 and is now a negotiating partner in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. It is true that the Cuban government represses freedoms, but the United States engages with unsavory governments all the time. Why, they ask, is it that the United States refuses to talk to a country ninety miles off the coast of Florida?

Status Quo ignores Latin America

The Obama administration is virtually ignoring Latin America nowGuillermo Martinez, Staff Writer, March 13, 2014, “US must stop neglecting Latin American issues,” The Sentinel, http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2014-03-13/news/fl-gmcol-oped0313-20140313_1_obama-administration-foreign-policy-latin-american-policy, Accessed 4/15/2014Despite the help the United States has provided Mexico in its battles against the drug cartels, it has done little to increase trade with its southern neighbor and it took almost five years for the Obama Administration to approve the free trade agreements negotiated by President George W. Bush with Colombia, Peru and Panama. And Obama has done little to establish a larger free trade agreement with other countries in the region. The magazine Foreign Policy said Obama's Latin American policy was led by the administration's "D-team." Time magazine has called the Administration's Latin American policy one of "benign neglect."

Russia Crowd-Out Advantage

1AC Advantage – Russian Expansionism

Russia is increasing its influence into Latin America in a new round of Cold War expansionism to challenge the U.S.Carl Meacham, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), March 25, 2014, “Is Russia moving in on Latin America?,” https://csis.org/publication/russia-moving-latin-america, Accessed 4/21/2014With global attention focused on Russian moves in the Crimean peninsula—and, at this moment, just across the eastern Ukrainian border—it may seem difficult, at times, to set these developments in the broader context. But it is critical to understand these moves for what they are: the latest in a series of guided plays that span Russia’s relationship with Iran, Syria, and the provision of safe haven to former National Security Administration (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden. And the latest of these moves may be playing out right here in the Western Hemisphere. Even as Russia continues pursuits in its own immediate vicinity—all while mocking U.S. attempts to check Russian expansionism, the former Cold War behemoth is simultaneously testing the proverbial waters on the other side of the globe, revisiting an old neighborhood: Latin America. Though Russia has not been entirely absent from the region in recent years, recent statements from the Russian Defense Ministry bring that involvement to a new level. Late last month, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced Russian plans to build military bases in Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela, marking Russia’s most forward endeavors in the region since the end of the Cold War.

The U.S. must forge greater ties with Latin America to displace growing Russian influenceCarl Meacham, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), March 25, 2014, “Is Russia moving in on Latin America?,” https://csis.org/publication/russia-moving-latin-america, Accessed 4/21/2014There’s no doubt that what we are witnessing right now could be the beginning of another conflict between the United States and Russia, as the former hegemon works to once more establish itself as a viable world power. As Russia grasps for influence, it is taking advantage of the perception that the United States is steadily losing the kind of sway it once enjoyed in Latin America. And as the Obama administration has had to slash budgets and de-prioritize Latin America in its own foreign policy agenda, it is, perhaps, no great surprise that much of the region is steadily more skeptical of looking north for guidance and leadership. Shoigu’s announcements are certainly making waves—and rightly so. As Russia-U.S. tensions develop, they are bound to “bump-heads.” And though refueling bases could prove entirely nonthreatening, there is little the U.S. government can do in the way of crafting a direct response to Shoigu’s announcement of intent, shy of keeping a watchful eye over the plans as they develop—particularly given the reshuffling they could generate in our own neighborhood. So, then, perhaps it’s high time to develop closer ties with key neighbors in Latin America?

The expansion of Russian influence into Latin America will undermine U.S. leadership, with a high potential for attackF. Michael Maloof, senior staff writer for WND/G2Bulletin, is a former security policy analyst in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, March 22, 2014, “Putin to put Russian bases in Latin America,” http://www.wnd.com/2014/03/putin-to-put-russian-bases-in-latin-america/, Accessed 4/21/2014

As the world remains riveted on Moscow’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, Russian President Vladimir Putin is shifting gears to Latin America. As first outlined by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu last February, Putin now plans to keep the United States off-balance as Moscow sets up actual military bases and massive arms sales in the Latin American region. Moscow’s plan follows a recent announcement by Iran to have its warships patrol in waters off the U.S. coast. Russia and Iran have stated their increased presence is also in response to U.S. military deployments near their countries, including the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization up to Russia’s borders. The establishment of permanent Russian bases and a major Russian presence in the Western Hemisphere will challenge U.S. policies and threatens to diminish Washington’s influence in the region. At the same time, it will give Moscow a basis to stage offensive weapons in the Western Hemisphere, placing another formidable challenge to U.S. homeland defenses from potential missile threats.

US-Russia war would causes extinctionIra Helfand, co-president of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and recipient of the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize, December 12, 2012, “The Frightening Scenario of the Nuclear War,” IPS News, http://www.ipsnews.net/2012/12/the-frightening-scenario-of-the-nuclear-war/, Accessed 4/22/2014A large-scale war between the U.S. and Russia would be even more catastrophic. Hundreds of millions of people would be killed directly; the indirect climate effects would be even greater. Global temperatures would drop an average of eight degrees Celsius, and more than 20 degrees Celsius in the interior of North America and Eurasia. In the Northern Hemisphere, there would be three years without a single day free of frost. Food production would stop and the vast majority of the human race would starve. Since the end of the Cold War we have acted as though this kind of war simply can’t happen. But it can: the two nuclear superpowers still have nearly 20,000 nuclear warheads; more than two thousand of them are maintained on missiles that can be fired in less than 15 minutes , destroying the cities of the other power 30 minutes later. As long as the U.S. and Russia maintain these vast arsenals there remains the very real danger that they will be used, either intentionally or by accident. We know of at least five occasions since 1979 when one or the other of the superpowers prepared to launch a nuclear attack on the other country in the mistaken belief that they themselves were under attack . The most recent of these events was in January 1995. The conditions that existed then, which brought us within minutes of a nuclear war, have not significantly changed today. The next time an accident takes place, we may not be so lucky. Recognising this great danger, 35 nations joined in a new call for the elimination of all nuclear weapons at the United Nations this October. The International Red Cross/Red Crescent Movement has also called for the abolition of nuclear weapons. In March 2013, the Norwegian government will convene a meeting of all state parties to the Non Proliferation Treaty to discuss the humanitarian consequences of nuclear war. The U.S. and Russia should embrace these initiatives and lead the way in negotiating a verifiable, enforceable treaty that eliminates nuclear weapons. These negotiations will not be easy, but the alternative is unthinkable. We cannot count on good luck as the basis of global security policy. If we do not abolish these weapons, someday our luck will run out, they will be used, and everything that we cherish will be destroyed. The stakes could not be higher.

Russian engagement with L.A. increasing now

Russia is expanding into Latin America to re-establish Cold War ties with Venezuela and CubaIlan Berman, Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council, March 25, 2014, “U.S. Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Testimony before the House Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20140325/101958/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-BermanI-20140325.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014In Cuba, Russia has worked diligently over the past half-decade to rebuild its once-robust Cold War-era ties. This has entailed top level diplomatic visits by Russian officials to Havana (most prominent among them a November 2008 visit to the Cuban capital by then-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev), as well as new military agreements and revived cooperation on topics such as energy and nuclear cooperation. With Venezuela, Russia has succeeded in forging a robust military partnership, exploiting the radical ideology and expansionist tendencies of the Chavez regime in Caracas. Between 2001 and 2013, Venezuela is estimated to have purchased more than three-quarters of the $14.5 billion in arms sales carried out by Russia in the region.

Russia is expanding into Latin America and will soon build military basesMelanie Batley, Staff Writer, March 21, 2014, “Putin Eyes Latin America, Mocks US Sanctions,” http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ Putin-Latin-America-Navy-Ships/2014/03/21/id/560922/, Accessed 4/21/2014In a signal that Russian President Vladimir Putin is expanding his ambitions for international ascendancy, Russia has been sending navy ships and long-range bombers to Latin America. News of the moves emerged as international pressure on Russia continued to intensify over its decision to annex Crimea. Putin, however, mocked President Barack Obama's announcement of sanctions against the country, saying he plans to open an account at the U.S.-sanctioned Rossiya Bank, reports RT, the Russia-based television network. "I've already said that I was going to open an account in this bank, more than that I asked for my salary to be transferred to this account," RT reported Putin as saying. Recent reports indicate that Russia is planning to establish military bases in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. According to The Hill, Putin's national security team met last week to discuss increasing military ties to the region.

Russian engagement increasing - Cuba

Russia is steeping up military cooperation with Cuba nowRamiro Sebastián Fúnez, Honduran-American political journalist and activist earning his master's degree in politics at New York University, March 11, 2014, “Russia’s Military Power in Latin America,” Americas Quarterly, http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/russia-military-power-in-latin-america, Accessed 4/21/2014Although Cuba maintained a strong relationship with Russia throughout the Cold War, military diplomacy between both nations came to a screeching halt during the 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nonetheless, Cuban President Raúl Castro and Russian President Vladimir Putin have recently improved military diplomacy—an armed Russian intelligence-gathering military vessel arrived in Havana the same day Shoigu made the announcement of his country’s increased presence in Latin America. The vessel also visited Havana in September 2012. Despite minor improvements in U.S.-Cuba diplomacy, Russia continues to maintain a stronger military relationship with the Caribbean island than its northern neighbor—a bond that may worry defense officials in Washington and put them on the offensive as Putin beefs up his country’s defense capabilities.

Russian engagement increasing - Venezuela

Russia is targeting Venezuela for economic engagementCarl Meacham, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), March 25, 2014, “Is Russia moving in on Latin America?,” https://csis.org/publication/russia-moving-latin-america, Accessed 4/21/2014The past decade has seen a new and revived tenor to Russian involvement in Latin America, focusing primarily on establishing its place in the region through general commercial trade but particularly the weapons trade —though progress on these fronts was sluggish at best, and only decelerated in the wake of the 2008 economic crisis. By and large, the Russian government’s closest “new friendship” in Latin America has been with Venezuela—particularly under the late president Hugo Chavez. That relationship, dominated by arms sales and military contracts, has largely defined Russia’s presence and influence in the region over the past decade.

Russia is arming Venezuelan state repression, murder, and torture of the people through economic engagementFrances Martel, Staff Writer, March 20, 2014, “Putin’s slow and steady Reconquista of Latin America,” http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/03/20/Putin-s-Slow-And-Steady-Reconquista-Of-Latin-America, Accessed 4/21/2014Russia's vast fuel industry gives it the upper hand with most countries in Latin America, except the one OPEC member nation on the continent: Venezuela. With Venezuela, Putin has offered both other services, like arms development, and the opposite service: finding buyers to keep the inexcusably devastated Venezuelan economy afloat . Venezuela's ties to Russia go as far back as 2001, when Hugo Chávez made his first trip there as premier. By 2006, Russia was building arms factories in Venezuela to combat the U.S. embargo on selling weapons to the country. A decade later, a year into the Maduro regime, Putin remains an ally of the oppressive nation that is currently under scrutiny for its systematic arrest, murder , and torture of unarmed protesters. Earlier this month, Putin expressed support for Maduro, and the Venezuelan leader expressed thanks on Twitter without specifying just how big of a financial deal the countries had made. The deal would allow Maduro to expand the sales of his country's oil, however, which strengthens the power of his regime.

Russian engagement aimed at displacing U.S. hegemony

Russia is capitalizing on U.S. disengagement from the region for strategic basing in the WestIlan Berman, Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council, March 25, 2014, “U.S. Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Testimony before the House Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20140325/101958/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-BermanI-20140325.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014What drives Russian policy toward Latin America? Most recently, Moscow has focused on the region as part of stepped up efforts at international counter-narcotics cooperation. Pursuant to a March 2013 plan unveiled by the Kremlin’s anti-drug czar, Viktor Ivanov, Russia is working to expand anti-drug operations with Latin American states. This effort has already yielded notable results, among them a spring 2013 raid carried out in collaboration with Nicaragua that netted some 1.2 tons of cocaine and broke up a Central American gang linked to Mexico’s notorious Los Zetas cartel. But Russia’s interest in the Americas extends far beyond counter-narcotics. Moscow maintains significant economic equities in the region, although the volume of its trade (estimated at less than $14 billion annually) is dwarfed by that of China. Nevertheless, Russia appears eager to position itself to exploit new economic opportunities, such as those that would result from the Nicaraguan government’s ambitious plans to host a counterpart to the Panama Canal. It may also be using compliant Latin American states to bolster its intelligence collection capabilities in the region, which are said to have grown significantly in recent years. Russia’s activities are strategic—and opportunistic. Although in practice Latin America remains far outside Russia’s areas of core interest, the Russian government as clearly taken advantage of America’s retraction from the region to improve its own position there in both economic and strategic terms. Set against the backdrop of deteriorating U.S.-Russian bilateral relations writ large, this expanded presence should be cause for concern, in no small measure because of its overt military dimensions. Indeed, in his February 26th announcement, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu indicated that Moscow desires Latin American basing capabilities because of a need for refueling facilities near the equator. This suggests that the Kremlin is now actively contemplating an expansion of its military activities in the Western Hemisphere, to include long-range missions by its combat aircraft.

Russia is capitalizing on soured U.S.-Venezuelan relation to expand its influenceRamiro Sebastián Fúnez, Honduran-American political journalist and activist earning his master's degree in politics at New York University, March 11, 2014, “Russia’s Military Power in Latin America,” Americas Quarterly, http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/russia-military-power-in-latin-america, Accessed 4/21/2014Throughout former President Hugo Chávez’s tenure and President Nicolás Maduro’s current administration, Venezuela’s relationship with the United States has soured. One one side, Maduro and his supporters have accused the United States of destabilizing Venezuela by financing privatization efforts and supporting the campaigns of political opponents. Meanwhile, ongoing protests continue, led by opposition leaders like Leopoldo López and Henrique Capriles, who have accused the Bolivarian

government of bringing Venezuela’s inflation and crime rates to unprecedented levels. Deteriorating relations between Venezuela and the United States have established solidarity between Caracas and Moscow officials. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrovsaid at a meeting with Venezuelan counterpart Elías Jaua on Monday that his country supports Venezuela’s efforts to maintain stability in the country, which both governments feel are being undermined by U.S. support for opposition protests—Lavrov made the announcement a few days before Russia initiated talks with the Maduro administration about expanding its military presence in South America. Although Jaua has said that Venezuela will “work hard to facilitate contacts with Russia,” he also, noted that, "because of the constitution, we cannot allow a foreign military installation in our country." Nonetheless, Russia’s solidarity with Venezuela, coupled with its plans to shore up defense capabilities in South America, will likely upset Washington officials who are critical of both governments.

Russia is already making military moves to secure a presence in Latin AmericaDanielle Restuccia, Staff Writer, February 28, 2014, “Russia plans to add military bases in Nicaragua, Venezuela, other countries,” http://voxxi.com/2014/02/28/russia-adds-military-bases-latin-america/, Accessed 4/21/2014Russia appears to be expanding its military presence in numerous foreign countries like Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. The move could add more strain on Washington-Moscow relations. A Russian military vessel already docked at a Havana naval base this week. According to Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shogu, Moscow is looking to build military bases in Vietnam, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, the Seychelles, Singapore and several other countries.

Russia is taking the new Cold War into Latin AmericaRamiro Sebastián Fúnez, Honduran-American political journalist and activist earning his master's degree in politics at New York University, March 11, 2014, “Russia’s Military Power in Latin America,” Americas Quarterly, http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/russia-military-power-in-latin-america, Accessed 4/21/2014As tensions between the United States and Russia over the future of the Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula continue to rise, Moscow officials may look to beef up their country’s stronghold in Latin America. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on February 26 that his country is planning to expand its long-standing military presence in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, possibly bringing the U.S. and Russia’s icy diplomatic standoff into the Western Hemisphere. Although Shoigu mentioned that Russia would also boost its armed presence in Vietnam, Singapore, the Seychelles and several other countries, Moscow’s anticipated embankment in Latin America will surely be perceived as a threat to U.S. defense policymakers.

Russian imperialism internal links

Events in the Ukraine prove Russia is on a neo-imperial. This should not overshadow their Cold War playbook of overseas presence. They are engaging Cuba and Venezuela as part of a Latin America strategy to consolidate global powerIlan Berman, Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council, March 25, 2014, “U.S. Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Testimony before the House Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20140325/101958/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-BermanI-20140325.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014In recent weeks, international attention has been riveted by Russia’s neo-imperial efforts in Ukraine—steps which have raised the specter of a new Cold War between Moscow and the West. In the process, another alarming facet of the Kremlin’s contemporary foreign policy has gone largely unnoticed: its growing military presence in, and strategic designs on, the Western Hemisphere. On February 26th, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu formally announced his government’s plan to expand its overseas military presence. Russia, Mr. Shoigu outlined, intends to establish new military bases in eight foreign countries. The candidates include five Asian nations and three Latin American ones: Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. Negotiations are underway to allow port visits to each, and to open refueling sites there for Russian long-range aircraft. Just one day later, in a throwback to Cold War military cooperation between the Soviet Union and client state Cuba, a Russian warship docked in Havana. As of yet, neither Moscow nor Havana has issued a formal explanation as to why the Viktor Leonov, a Meridian-class intelligence vessel, was dispatched to the Latin American state. However, the visit tracks with a growing Russian strategic footprint in the region. Over the past several years, Moscow has devoted considerable diplomatic and political attention to the Americas. Consistent with its pursuit of a “multipolar” world and its efforts to reestablish itself as a great power, this engagement has prioritized contacts with ideological regimes which share a common anti-American worldview and similarly seek to dilute and counteract U.S. influence in the region.

Latin America will say “yes” to Russian engagment

Latin American leaders are lining up to support and engage RussiaFrances Martel, Staff Writer, March 20, 2014, “Putin’s slow and steady Reconquista of Latin America,” http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/03/20/Putin-s-Slow-And-Steady-Reconquista-Of-Latin-America, Accessed 4/21/2014When Russia annexed Crimea this week, few looked to South America for Russian support. Yet Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Argentinian President Cristina Fernández were lauding the conquest . Their support is no surprise: Putin has been cultivating it for years, reaping the rewards as the continent falls in line with the Kremlin. The Russian Federation has never broken the ties the Soviet Union cemented with the continent's most repressive Spanish-speaking nation, Cuba. Few expected anything less from state propaganda outlet Granma than a full-throated support of Russia's colonization of Crimea, and their attack on "Ukrainian ultranationalists" delivered. The nations of South America presented Putin with a much more difficult relationship-building exercise, but one that he has taken to with zeal. While the United States has maintained close ties with Colombia and Chile, helping the former end a guerrilla warfare crisis perpetrated by left-wing leaders in the nation, the generation of leaders calling themselves Bolivarian socialists in Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, and, to a lesser extent, Peru have all expanded their ties with Russia.

***Affirmative Disadvantage Ans.***

A2: China

A2: India

A2: India – Link answers

India cannot increase economic engagement with Latin America for multiple reasonsAbhismita Sen, Staff Writer, March 22, 2014, “Latin American Liaison: A Pursuit for Indian Ascendency?,” International Policy Digest, http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2014/03/22/latin-american-liaison-pursuit-indian-ascendency/, Accessed 4/21/2014India, will no doubt suffer setbacks while trying to achieve its long harboured dream of attaining leadership in the global south through the Latin American lane. There is no direct means of transport between India and Brazil, the most dominant Latin American stakeholder of Indian ambitions. The services provided by the state are inadequate to serve a rapidly growing trade facilitation agenda. Scarce human resources, weak infrastructure and evaluation systems adversely affect the reform agenda needed to expand institutional arrangements. Poor project preparation in the public sector matches a weak private sector adversely affected by chronic shortages of human resources and limited access to technology.

Indian economic engagement is resolutely focused on BrazilTridivesh Singh Maini, the Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonepat and Sridhar Ramaswamy, final year Master’s student of Foreign Policy, with the Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, April 12, 2014, “India’s Latin American Policy: Looking Beyond Brazil,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/indias-latin-american-policy-looking-beyond-brazil/, Accessed 4/21/2014The focus on Brazil is perhaps not surprising, given that both countries are major emerging economies and as such partner in multiple forums, with growing diplomatic interdependence. For instance, Brazil and India are backing each other for a permanent seat in a reformed United Nations Security Council. While most countries may have looked at Latin America through a U.S. prism in the past, India seems to look at the region from a Brazilian perspective. Trade and economic ties with other countries in the region, such as Venezuela—currently India’s largest trade partner in the region with trade topping $14 billion in 2012/13—as well as Mexico, Argentina, Peru and Colombia are gradually rising. Nonetheless, New Delhi’s emphasis remains resolutely on Brazil.

A2: Oil

A2: Politics

Cuba – Public supports normalization

The public strongly supports economic engagement with CubaPeter Schechter, Director and Jason Marczak, Director Deputy, both at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council, February 2014, “US-Cuba: A New Public Survey Supports Policy Change,” http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/2014cubapoll/ US-CubaPoll.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014A common sense majority of Americans responded that they would support normalizing relations with Cuba. This number jumps to even higher levels of support, reaching well into the 60 percent range, when asked about specific policy changes that could ultimately put the United States and Cuba on a path to normalization. Figure 6 shows that a strong majority of the US public, including Floridians and Latinos, would like to see the removal of economic restrictions. Florida residents and Latinos tended to have slightly higher levels of support for most of these changes in keeping with their overall levels of support.

Politics has changed! The public now supports normalizing relations with CubaReal Politik, Staff Writer, March 17, 2014, “U.S.-Cuba Relations: The Times They Are a-Changin,” Chicago Now, http://www.chicagonow.com/real-politik/2014/03/u-s-cuba-relations-the-times-they-are-a-changin/, Accessed 4/14/2014Changing America's Cuba policy has traditionally been considered electoral suicide for aspiring politicians. Their thinking has been based on a simple premise. Florida - and the state's 29 electoral votes - has played kingmaker in the last five elections. And good luck taking Florida without taking a hard line on Cuba. South Florida is loaded with senior citizens and is home to the largest Cuban population outside of Havana - neither group will stand for going soft on the Castro regime. Republicans who break ranks can look forward to a quick death in the primaries. Democrats who suggest a change of tone will get pilloried for 'appeasing a dictatorship' by the GOP. But not so fast. While the previous paragraphs have summed up conventional thinking on America's Cuba policy to date, new research from the Atlantic Council's Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center suggests that U.S. public opinion has quietly shifted. Americans look ready to support a more open posture towards Cuba that includes steps to normalizing Washington's relationship with Havana.

Cuban-Americans have the highest margin of support for normalizationPeter Schechter, Director and Jason Marczak, Director Deputy, both at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council, February 2014, “US-Cuba: A New Public Survey Supports Policy Change,” http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/2014cubapoll/ US-CubaPoll.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014A majority of Americans from every region and across party lines support normal izing relations with Cuba. Nationwide, 56 percent of respondents favor changing our Cuba policy, with an increase to 63 percent among Florida adults and 62 percent among Latinos [see Figure 2, p.9]. Support is strongest among Democrats and Independents, but 52 percent of Republicans also favor normalization [see Figure 5, p.11]. Florida, home to the country’s largest Cuban- American population, leads the nation by 7 percentage points in supporting normalized relations. In Miami-Dade County, where the highest percentage of the state’s Cuban-American population lives, support registers at 64 percent— as high as the overall state number [see Figure 13, p.23].

Traditional hardline critics are now supporting engagementReal Politik, Staff Writer, March 17, 2014, “U.S.-Cuba Relations: The Times They Are a-Changin,” Chicago Now, http://www.chicagonow.com/real-politik/2014/03/u-s-cuba-relations-the-times-they-are-a-changin/, Accessed 4/14/2014Most surprisingly, support for changing America's Cuba policy remained high among the demographic groups typically associated with supporting the country's hard line stance - Hispanics/Latinos, Republicans and senior citizens. According to the report, 56 percent of Americans support normalizing relations with or engaging directly with Cuba. The number jumps to 63 percent among Floridians and 62 percent among Latinos. That's right, Floridians and Latinos are more likely to support improving relations with Cuba more than Americans as a whole. In addition, 52 percent of Republicans favor a change of policy towards normalization/engagement.

Despite rights abuses, the American publics is calling for U.S. policy changePeter Schechter, Director and Jason Marczak, Director Deputy, both at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council, February 2014, “US-Cuba: A New Public Survey Supports Policy Change,” http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/2014cubapoll/ US-CubaPoll.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014The survey results indicate that Americans want a change in US-Cuba policy. They have concerns with the Cuban government’s repression, but recognize the need for alternatives in light of the failure of the current policy to achieve its objective. And importantly, Florida, the state that allegedly has the greatest reluctance to reengage with Cuba, is now more willing than an already supportive country.

Cuba – Public supports terrorist list removal

61% of the public supports removing Cuba from the terrorist listPeter Schechter, Director and Jason Marczak, Director Deputy, both at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council, February 2014, “US-Cuba: A New Public Survey Supports Policy Change,” http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/2014cubapoll/ US-CubaPoll.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014Cuba is one of only four countries designated as a state sponsor of terrorism—a list that includes Iran, Syria, and Sudan. This designation restricts US foreign assistance, defense exports and sales, and select financial engagement. It also penalizes people and countries engaging in certain trade with Cuba. Although this is US policy, 61 percent of the American people believe that Cuba should not be considered a state sponsor of terrorism; in Florida, the number rises to 67 percent [see Figure 13, p.19].

***Case & Advantage Answers***

A2: Cuba

A2: GITMO – Status quo solves

The status quo is moving toward closure nowKen Gude, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, April 8, 2014, “Renewed Push, Public Weariness Puts Closing Gitmo Within Obama’s Reach,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13683/renewed-push-public-weariness-puts-closing-gitmo-within-obama-s-reach, Accessed 4/22/2014After the latest transfer of one detainee to Algeria last month, 154 detainees remain at Guantanamo. There are three different groups of prisoners among the 154: 76 have been designated for transfer to either their native countries or third countries; 33 are slated for prosecution in either the Guantanamo military commissions or U.S. federal courts; and 45 are to be held in continued U.S. military detention but not charged in any forum. Congress’ imposition of severe limitations and prohibitions on transferring Guantanamo detainees out of the prison meant that only a handful left between mid-2010 and late last year. But the last few months of 2013 proved to be a turning point. The Obama administration refocused on Guantanamo, and the president appointed senior officials in the State and Defense Departments to oversee the closing of the prison. The momentum carried over into Congress, which voted to lift the most severe restrictions on transferring Guantanamo detainees overseas—the first time it had ever voted to make it easier to close the prison. The revitalized effort has seen more detainees leave Guantanamo in the four months since December 2013 than in the preceding four years combined. The terrain has changed.

The embargo is virtually a myth. Despite ineffective sanctions, there is tons of economic engagementMichael J. Totten, contributing editor for World Affairs, April 14, 2014, “Letter from Cuba: To Embargo or Not,” World Affairs journal, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/letter-cuba-embargo-or-not?utm_source=World+Affairs+Newsletter&utm_campaign=8234c0c406-April_14_2014_WAJ_Totten&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f83b38c5c7-8234c0c406-294556989, Accessed 4/22/2014Professor Alfred Cuzán at the University of West Florida offers a counterpoint. “One argument in support of keeping the embargo,” he says, “is that it gives the United States leverage to force the Castros to make liberalizing changes. I think that argument has some merit. And Cuba did confiscate and expropriate American property. But I don’t think the embargo is effective. The regime can still get whatever it wants from Canada, from Europe, and so on. The US embargo is something of a myth.” He has a point. The United States is Cuba’s fifth-largest trading partner after Venezuela, China, Spain, and Brazil. Cuba gets more of its products from the United States even now than from Canada or Mexico. Sanctions are still in place—Cuba cannot buy everything, and it must pay in cash—but the embargo is hardly absolute.

A2: GITMO – Executive Order CP solvency

Obama should renew the push to close GitmoKen Gude, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, April 8, 2014, “Renewed Push, Public Weariness Puts Closing Gitmo Within Obama’s Reach,” World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13683/renewed-push-public-weariness-puts-closing-gitmo-within-obama-s-reach, Accessed 4/22/2014Advocates working to end a sad chapter in American history were given new hope last year when President Barack Obama renewed his push to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay. The substantive challenges to closing the prison remain, though events have shifted the risk calculus to favor closure. And even though the president is in a far weaker position politically than he was when he took office, different public attitudes on national security issues should make it easier to close Guantanamo. What seemed a hopeless and nearly forgotten project for Obama a year ago—closing Guantanamo by the end of his administration—now seems achievable.

A2: Human rights reform

Under Raul, Cuba still engages in widespread human rights abusesPeter Schechter, Director and Jason Marczak, Director Deputy, both at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council, February 2014, “US-Cuba: A New Public Survey Supports Policy Change,” http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/2014cubapoll/ US-CubaPoll.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014The second issue is Cuba. The injustice suffered by Cuba’s refugees as they fled the country— their possessions and loved ones left behind—is impossible to forget, whether they left this month or in 1959. Fifty-five years later, the Castro government continues to repress liberties, abuse human rights, and, despite some openings, deny its citizens access to basic economic freedoms. Notwithstanding the many US efforts to prompt regime change, the government of Cuba is firmly in place, even surviving the transition of power from Fidel to Raúl Castro. It maintains widespread control over virtually all aspects of daily life. Scores of political prisoners are sitting in Cuban jails. Among them is Alan Gross, a US citizen and US Agency for International Development subcontractor, serving a fifteen-year prison sentence after his 2009 arrest on charges of acts against the independence of the state.

Regime Power / Democracy DA links

Increasing economic engagement with “Cuba” means the State, who has absolute exclusivityMauricio Claver-Carone, Executive Director of Cuba Democracy Advocates, April 2, 2014, “In Cuba Policy Debate, Theories Don't Cut It,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mauricio-clavercarone/in-cuba-policy-debate-the_b_5071000.html, Accessed 4/21/2014It's time for those who theorize that closer business ties to Cuba will trigger economic and political reform, and want to scuttle U.S. sanctions, to face some inconvenient truths. First and foremost, from an economic perspective, the very concept of trade and investment in Cuba is grounded in a misconception about how "business" takes place on the island. In most of the world, trade and investment means dealing with privately-owned or operated corporations. That's not the case in Cuba. In Cuba, foreign trade and investment is the exclusive domain of the state, i.e. Fidel and Raul Castro. There are no "exceptions." Here's a fact: In the last five decades, every single "foreign trade" transaction with Cuba has been with a state entity, or individual acting on behalf of the state. The state's exclusivity regarding trade and investment was enshrined in Article 18 of Castro's 1976 Constitution . The state's exclusivity extends also to what the rest of the world considers to be "humanitarian" transactions. The U.S. government frequently cites the cash sales of U.S. foodstuffs and medicine to Cuba to refute those who exaggerate the "totality" of the U.S. embargo. Indeed, since passage of the 2000 Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act ("TSREEA"), more than $4 billion in U.S. agricultural and medical products have been sold to Cuba. It is an unpleasant fact, however, that all those sales by more than 250 privately-owned U.S. companies were made to only one Cuban buyer , the Castro government.

Market reforms expand income inequality and corruptionNile Bowie, political analyst-Maylasia, April 16, 2014, “Cuba’s economic reforms: Socialism with neoliberal characteristics?,” RT, http://rt.com/op-edge/cuba-economic-reforms-market-852/, Accessed 4/18/2014Marketization may likely exacerbate income inequality and spur elite corruption in the early stages, and these negatives features of capitalism should be kept in check. If state-linked cronies are perceived as being the most advantaged by foreign investment without earnings being adequately channeled to social welfare programs and development, it will have negative political ramifications.

Easing sanctions on Cuba only benefits the State not the economyReihan Salam, Staff Writer, April 11, 2014, “Why Congress must rethink sanctions on Cuba,” Sunday Times, Accessed 4/21/2014, http://www.sundaytimes.lk/features/48686.htmlSo should the U.S. government ease economic sanctions even further? The plight of Alan Gross represents an opportunity to rethink the sanctions regime. One widely held view is that U.S. sanctions actually serve to entrench the current Cuban government, as they allow Cuba’s rulers to tightly control the flow of resources in and out of the island, and also to blame the United States for the poverty and deprivation that plagues Cuban society. The problem with this line of thinking, as Mauricio Claver-Carone, director of Cuba Democracy Advocates and a proponent of sanctions, notes, is that foreign trade and investment in Cuba is the exclusive domain of the state. Whereas the Chinese government offers wide latitude to private enterprises, both domestic and foreign-owned, to operate on Chinese soil, the Cuban government severely limits the scope for private economic activity. This is one reason why China “feels” like a freer society than Cuba, despite the fact that the Chinese government maintains

a large and expensive repressive apparatus. To grow the Chinese economy, China’s rulers have had little choice but to relax their grip on investment and entrepreneurship.

On the ground facts disprove theories about lifting sanctions helping anyone but the CastrosMauricio Claver-Carone, Executive Director of Cuba Democracy Advocates, April 2, 2014, “In Cuba Policy Debate, Theories Don't Cut It,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mauricio-clavercarone/in-cuba-policy-debate-the_b_5071000.html, Accessed 4/21/2014These are the economic facts in Cuba under the Castro brothers' unyielding brand of totalitarianism. Economics aren't, however, the only consideration for U.S. policymakers. They must also take cognizance of the Castro regime's grave violations of human rights; its harboring of U.S.-designated terrorists ; subversion of democracy in Venezuela; support of rogue regimes in Syria and Iran; and illegal trafficking of weapons to North Korea. Evaluated in context and entirely, the facts about Cuba under the Castro regime inevitably trump theories that lifting U.S. sanctions would stimulate economic and political change in Cuba.

A2: Terrorist List – Gross CP solvency

Taking Cuba off the terrorist list in exchange for releasing Alan Gross revitalizes U.S. –Cuban relations, boosts soft power, and secures Obama’s legacyWilliam M. LeoGrande, Professor of Government in the School of Public Affairs at American University, March 3, 2014, “The Prospects for Improving U.S.-Cuban Relations,” e-International Relations, http://www.e-ir.info/2014/03/03/the-prospects-for-improving-u-s-cuban-relations/, Accessed 4/15/2014Action by the White House on the terrorism list and Alan Gross would break the policy logjam that has prevented President Obama from fulfilling his promise to open a new chapter in U.S.-Cuban relations. If President Obama can summon the courage to take bold steps to forge a new relationship unconstrained by the animosities of the past, he could secure a place in history as the president who finally solved the riddle of Cuba. Europe and Latin America would applaud it, most of the American public would support it, and even most Cuban Americans would welcome the new opportunity to re-engage with their patria.

QPQ CP solvency

Congress should ease sanction via a quid-pro-quo for reformsReihan Salam, Staff Writer, April 11, 2014, “Why Congress must rethink sanctions on Cuba,” Sunday Times, Accessed 4/21/2014, http://www.sundaytimes.lk/features/48686.htmlRather than lift sanctions unilaterally, the U.S. ought to consider modifying the approach it has taken since passage of the Helms-Burton Act of 1996. Under Helms-Burton, the U.S. is prepared to lift sanctions if and when Cuba releases political prisoners and allows for the inspection of its prison facilities, legalizes political activity and opposition parties, and abolishes its secret police. Essentially, the law insists on immediate regime change, and it is easy to see why Cuba’s rulers find its conditions unacceptable. Congress ought to consider a new approach: the U.S. will relax sanctions if Cuba allows its citizens greater scope to build their own private businesses, which will have the right to engage in foreign trade, receive foreign investment, and employ workers.

Status Quo solves – Embargo irrelevant

There’s a huge amount of travel and remittances in the status quo, which outstrips the role of trade and tourism for the peopleBryan Bender, Staff Writer, April 20, 2014, “Cuba, US are warily, slowly improving relations,” Boston Globe, Accessed 4/21/2014, http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2014/04/20/cuba-and-united-states-are-warily-slowly-thawing-relations/ LDEqbKk2hkk4cVn22PuYDO/story.html, US residents are now the second largest group of foreign travelers to Cuba each year, behind Canada, including at least half a million Cuban-Americans last year, who are now allowed to freely travel here under relaxed rules instituted in 2009. Another 100,000 Americans visited as part of educational and cultural exchanges approved by the US State Department. According to a new report by the Havana Consulting Group, more than 173,000 US residents visited the island just between January and March of this year. Meanwhile, studies find that money and goods pumped directly into the Cuban economy by Cuban-Americans — as much as $5 billion in 2012 — now outstrip the country’s four major sectors, including tourism as well as nickel, pharmaceutical, and sugar exports. That is having a major impact on a population of just 11 million people, most of whom barely eke out an existence in the island’s centrally controlled economy.

U.S. citizens avoid the embargo through cultural tripsBen Piven, Staff Writer, April 21, 2014, “Keeping up with the Joneses,” Al Jazeera America, http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/ 2014/4/21/americans-travelcuba.html, Accessed 4/23/2014Tourist travel to Cuba by U.S. citizens remains, theoretically at least, off limits under the embargo imposed by Washington half a century ago in the hopes of bringing down the regime of President Fidel Castro. But it is through one of many exceptions to the blockade — cultural trips — that the Friendly Planet educational group, among others, allows Americans to get ahead of the Joneses by visiting an increasingly desirable holiday destination. But there’s already one set of Joneses aboard an American Airlines flight making the 40-minute hop to Cuba. Maynard Jones, along with his wife, Pam, and sister Marsha, are part of a “Soul of Havana” trip with a different group, In Touch with Cuba, which is just one of at least 140 U.S. organizations offering people-to-people tours since rules were relaxed by President Barack Obama in April 2011.

Travellers avoid the embargo. Tourism to Cuba is high nowMary Forgione, Staff Writer, April 18, 2014, “Number of U.S. travelers going to Cuba is on the rise, report says,” Los Angeles Times, http://www.latimes.com/travel/la-trb-cuba-us-tourism-20140417,0,1032476.story#axzz2zXpcLjWt, Accessed 4/21/2014More Americans are going to Cuba, which makes the U.S. the second tourism source for the island nation after Canada, according to a new report. Despite a travel embargo that's been in effect for half a century, 173,550 Americans went to Cuba in January through March. "The data confirms, although the Cuban government does not recognize it publicly, that the United States, even with the effect of the embargo, is the second greatest source of tourists to Cuba after Canada," Emilio Morales, president of U.S.-based Havana Consulting Group, wrote in a report provided to the Associated Press.

Lifting embargo fails – Confiscated property dispute prevents

We can’t lift the embargo without settling confiscated propertyLeon Neyfakh, Staff Writer, April 18, 2014, “Cuba, you owe us $7 billion,” Boston Globe, http://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2014/04/ 18/cuba-you-owe-billion/jHAufRfQJ9Bx24TuzQyBNO/story.html, Accessed 4/21/2014What’s often forgotten, though, is that the embargo was actually triggered by something concrete: an enormous pile of American assets that Castro seized in the process of nationalizing the Cuban economy. Some of these assets were the vacation homes and bank accounts of wealthy individuals. But the lion’s share of the confiscated property—originally valued at $1.8 billion, which at 6 percent simple interest translates to nearly $7 billion today—was sugar factories, mines, oil refineries, and other business operations belonging to American corporations, among them the Coca-Cola Co., Exxon, and the First National Bank of Boston. A 2009 article in the Inter-American Law Review described Castro’s nationalization of US assets as the “largest uncompensated taking of American property by a foreign government in history.”

Helms-Burton requires that we resolve confiscated propertyLeon Neyfakh, Staff Writer, April 18, 2014, “Cuba, you owe us $7 billion,” Boston Globe, http://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2014/04/ 18/cuba-you-owe-billion/jHAufRfQJ9Bx24TuzQyBNO/story.html, Accessed 4/21/2014Today, the nearly 6,000 property claims filed in the wake of the Cuban revolution almost never come up as a significant sticking point in discussions of a prospective Cuban-American thaw. But they remain active—and more to the point, the federal law that lays out the conditions of a possible reconciliation with Cuba, the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, says they have to be resolved. According to that statute, said Michael Kelly, a professor of international law at Creighton University in Nebraska, settling the certified property claims “is one of the first dominos that has to fall in a whole series of dominos for the embargo to be lifted.” While the other dominos are clearly much more daunting—the overall point of the Helms-Burton Act is that Cuba has to have a democratic, America-friendly government in place before there can be any talk of lifting the embargo—experts say the property claims will be an intensely difficult problem to settle when it comes time to do so. For one thing, Cuba is unlikely to ever have enough cash on hand to fully compensate the claimants, especially while the embargo is still in place; to make matters even more complicated, many of the individual claimants have died, and some of the companies no longer exist. With Cuba inching toward reform on a number of fronts over the past several years, giving hope to those who believe our two countries might reconcile in the near future, a number of Cuba experts have begun to study the question of how to resolve the property claims in a way that is both realistic and fair. The proposals that have come out of their efforts provide a unique window onto the potential future of the American relationship with Cuba—and point to the level of imagination that can be required in the present to turn the page on what happened in the past.

A2: Mexico

Increasing oil production fails

There are a ton of challenges to increasing Mexican productionClifford Krause, Staff Writer, April 21, 2014, “‘Saudi America’: Mirage? Challenges Lie Ahead for North American Oil Production,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/22/business/energy-environment/challenges-lie-ahead-for-north-american-oil-production.html?_r=0, Accessed 4/24/2014Bigger challenges face Mexico, still a fading producer for United States demand. Even as Mexico is pressing ahead with constitutional changes that promise to open exploration and production to international oil companies for the first time since the 1930s, the fine print of the legislation to carry this out is still in doubt, while raging drug violence continues to worry investors. Perhaps most important, the economics of oil and natural gas extraction on the continent are challenging: Deepwater Gulf of Mexico oil drilling, oil sands extraction and shale drilling are all expensive and require high petroleum prices that are far from assured. Most of the easy-to-drill oil is gone. But should North America produce too much oil too quickly, and exports surge from Iraq (which is already happening) and Iran (should talks with the West over its nuclear program succeed), global oil prices could soften considerably.

Energy reforms could take years to take effect and won’t help the peopleJennifer Booton, Staff Writer, April 11, 2014, “Challenges Loom Despite 'Vast Opportunities' for Mexican Oil,” Fox Business, http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2014/04/11/despite-vast-opportunities-for-oil-in-mexico-challenges-loom/, Accessed 4/24/2014As Mexico works to denationalize its oil and gas market after seven decades, billions of dollars of potential profits and opportunity are waiting to be scooped up. However, swaths of people – mostly in Mexico -- still oppose the change, and faced with cost and political challenges, the reform could take years to materialize. Many fear foreign direct investment will siphon money away from crucial middle-class programs and incite violence among gangs such as the Zetas heavily involved in the country’s oil and gas black market. Others fear contracts won’t be negotiated properly, and that communities won't benefit since the government – not the landowner -- owns undiscovered reserves.

Despite potential, investors are skeptical about Mexican reformsClifford Krause, Staff Writer, April 21, 2014, “‘Saudi America’: Mirage? Challenges Lie Ahead for North American Oil Production,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/22/business/energy-environment/challenges-lie-ahead-for-north-american-oil-production.html?_r=0, Accessed 4/24/2014The United States would stand to be the big beneficiary from a Mexican bonanza, both in terms of having an extraordinary new resource on its border and from added trade with a richer neighboring partner. But foreign oil executives remain cautious. “The positive news in Mexico will help supplies in North America,” Ryan Lance, the ConocoPhillips chief executive, told a recent Rice University energy conference. But he expressed uncertainty about how effectively Mexico would change its energy laws to attract foreign investment, asking, “Are they going to put regulations in place that will make them competitive internationally?” He did not answer his own question.

A2: Venezuela

U.S. engagement is not effective in Venezuela

The U.S. has no effective influence in Venezuela because it requires regional cooperationMichael Shifter, President of the Inter-American Dialogue, March 25, 2014, “US Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Statement before U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3552, Accessed 4/14/2014The costs of this deficiency, which has been building over several administrations, are manifest in the Venezuela crisis. Washington has limited leverage and options in responding to the troubling situation. To its credit, the Obama administration has expressed serious concern about the violence in Venezuela and has called on the government to respect human rights. The House of Representatives should also be applauded for its clear resolution in support of Venezuela’s democracy. But US effectiveness in dealing with the Venezuela crisis – along with other major policy challenges – is limited unless we are able to work in concert with our major hemispheric allies.

Hyperinflation in Venezuela is inevitable in 2014Andres Oppenheimer, Staff Writer, April 16, 2014, “Latin America’s forecasts may be too rosy,” Miami Herald, http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/04/12/4053787/andres-oppenheimer-latin-americas.html, Accessed 4/18/2014Finally, Latin America's worst performing economies will be Venezuela and Argentina, the IMF says. Venezuela's economy will shrink by 0.5 percent this year, and will drop by another 1 percent next year. In an interview, IMF Western Hemisphere director Alejandro Werner told me that he projects Venezuela's inflation rate, which reached a world record of 56 percent last year, to rise to 75 percent in 2014. Werner said that unless Venezuela adopts an economic adjustment program, inflation may turn into hyper-inflation in coming years. “Typically, when countries reach inflation rates of 50 or 55 percent, they either adopt adjustment programs to put a break on it, or inflation keeps growing progressively,” he said.

A2: China Crowd-Out Advantage

A2: Climate change scenario

China and Latin America are cooperating on climate change mitigationGuy Edwards, research fellow at the Center for Environmental Studies at Brown University and J. Timmons Roberts, the Ittleson professor of Environmental Studies and Sociology at Brown University, and a nonresident senior fellow with the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, March 2014, “A High-Carbon Partnership? Chinese-Latin American Relations in a Carbon-Constrained World, The Brookings Institution, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/03/ high%20carbon%20partnership%20edwards%20roberts/high%20carbon%20partnership%20v3.pdf, Accessed 4/15/2014There are indications that China and some Latin American countries are viewing climate change as an important issue. Given China and Latin America’s focus on reducing poverty and building economic growth, that climate change is discussed within of ficial Chinese-Latin American documents at all is an important step. With climate impacts increasingly being felt in Latin America and China, cooperation to mitigate the risk and adapt is a matter of urgency.

A2: Iran Crowd-Out Advantage

A2: Iran – no nuclear threat

Iran is a rational actor. The nuclear threat is grossly exaggerated and they wouldn’t use their nukesCharlotte Love, Loughborough University, April 12, 2014, “Can a Nuclear Iran be Considered a Threat to Regional and Global Security?,” e-International Relations, http://www.e-ir.info/2014/04/12/can-a-nuclear-iran-be-considered-a-threat-to-regional-and-global-security/, Accessed 4/15/2014The threat presented by a nuclear Iran is largely determined by how rational Iran is considered to be, and therefore the likelihood of Iran initiating a nuclear attack. In the US and Israel, Iran is deemed an irrational actor and therefore poses an acute threat to security if it acquires nuclear weapons because it follows that Iran will not hesitate from using an atomic bomb during conflict. This is not misplaced concern as Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, chairman of Iran’s expediency council, stated that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was peaceful, “for the moment”, and, “irreversible, like a bullet fired from a gun”. However despite fanatical rhetoric, there is in fact little precedent to show that Iran would act irrationally with nuclear weapons and engage in a nuclear attack. This is due to the fact that if Iranian leaders were to initiate a nuclear attack it would prove to be suicidal due to the nature of nuclear warfare. The threat of a nuclear Iran is therefore, “grossly exaggerated”, because the leadership is in fact not suicidal. Waltz argues that the US and Israel have merely portrayed Iran as irrational and therefore a threat to security as an attempt to prevent Iran from acquiring such weapons. He explains that, “whoever gets nuclear weapons behaves with caution and moderation”, and Iran would be no exception. During the Cold War the Soviet Union was thought to be irrational and untrustworthy with nuclear capabilities, and yet a nuclear attack was avoided. So even if a state is deemed irrational, it will still act with caution in the possession of an atomic bomb as other countries have before. Therefore it is, “highly unlikely that a nuclear-armed Iran would deliberately use a nuclear device”, because even a mistrusted country will act rationally with nuclear weapons in order to avoid a nuclear conflict and self-destruction. As a result, even though the threat of a nuclear Iran may seem significant if Iran is portrayed as irrational and therefore willing to engage in a direct attack. In reality the credibility of this threat and the chance of an attack actually occurring dramatically reduces as there is little evidence to show that Iran is significantly irrational, so Iran is not a threat to security via direct attack.

Iranian nuclear weapons are no threat to security and won’t cause wildfire proliferation even if it happens, which is unlikelyCharlotte Love, Loughborough University, April 12, 2014, “Can a Nuclear Iran be Considered a Threat to Regional and Global Security?,” e-International Relations, http://www.e-ir.info/2014/04/12/can-a-nuclear-iran-be-considered-a-threat-to-regional-and-global-security/, Accessed 4/15/2014However, just like the threat posed by a nuclear Iran initiating a nuclear attack, the level of threat a nuclear Iran presents to regional security through proliferation is greatly diminished by how unlikely it is to actually happen. Considering the likelihood of proliferation, the threat of a nuclear Iran to security is in fact very low for two reasons. Firstly because a nuclear weapons program is difficult to build. For example, even though Saudi Arabia may be able to fund a program the technology and supplies needed to do so are closely watched by the international arena and difficult to acquire. Consequently developing an atomic bomb would take many years making proliferation impossible. Secondly, if proliferation was a significant threat it would have happened elsewhere already. Nuclear weapons have now existed in the international arena for a number of decades yet proliferation, the spread of weapons like wildfire, has not occurred and therefore there is no reason to believe that it will. Waltz states, “if an atomic Israel did not trigger an arms race… there is no reason a nuclear Iran should now”. Instead a nuclear Iran would

bring stability to the region by balancing the currently unchecked nuclear-armed Israel. So overall, a nuclear Iran would not present a significant threat to regional security through proliferation but be, “most likely to restore stability in the Middle East”.

A2: Latin American Relations Advantage

No solvency – Internal links are too small to access the impacts

The plan is insufficient to engage enough for their relations impacts for four reasonsMichael Shifter, President of the Inter-American Dialogue, March 25, 2014, “US Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Statement before U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3552, Accessed 4/14/2014Still, the US needs to realize that there are serious risks of reduced engagement in Latin America: First, the frustrating diplomacy surrounding the Venezuela crisis is illustrative of the new reality. The consequences of a possible implosion and spreading turmoil in Venezuela are serious and affect US interests. Second, it is essential for the United States to pursue greater cooperation with Brazil , however difficult this might be in the short run. True, neither Brazil nor the United States is investing much in building confidence, especially in light of the Snowden affair, but this is critical for US relations with Latin America overall. Third, the US needs to take better advantage of the propitious climate in Mexico for a reform agenda. The failure to deal effectively with the immigration question in the United States has serious costs for our relationship with Mexico (and other countries in the region as well) -- arguably our most important partner on a range of critical issues. And finally, with security cooperation efforts yielding some benefits, US engagement should not be reduced in Latin America. Doing so would limit our ability to be helpful to our Central American and Caribbean friends in dealing with spreading criminality, which threats democratic governance and the rule of law.

Their Latin American stability impacts from a lack of engagement assume military engagement not economicIlan Berman, Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council, March 25, 2014, “U.S. Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Testimony before the House Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20140325/101958/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-BermanI-20140325.pdf, Accessed 4/14/2014Any serious discussion of this subject must start by acknowledging that Latin America has historically served as a foreign policy backwater for the United States, one overshadowed by Europe, the Middle East and Asia on the agendas of successive administrations. This is deeply counterintuitive, because by virtue of their geographic proximity the countries of the Americas are natural trading partners for the United States. It is also dangerous, since the region’s large ungoverned spaces and widespread anti-Americanism have the potential to breed direct threats to the United States. Indeed, the criminal gangs and drug cartels endemic to Central and South America are already viewed as top tier national security concerns by the U.S. intelligence community. Nevertheless, inattention to the region remains the norm within the Washington Beltway. This state of affairs, moreover, is worsening. Since taking office, the Obama administration has systematically disengaged from Latin America, scaling back funding for key initiatives (like the longstanding and highly-successful Plan Colombia), failing to bolster important military partnerships and arrangements, and equivocating over political developments in vulnerable regional states. At the same time, budgetary cutbacks and fiscal austerity have resulted in a significant paring back of the U.S. military’s presence and activities in the Americas.

U.S.-Latin American relations differ between countries. Any drift is a long-term trend rarely affected by individual policy changesMichael Shifter, President of the Inter-American Dialogue, March 25, 2014, “US Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Statement before U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3552, Accessed 4/14/2014Washington’s inability to measurably influence the unfolding tragedy in Venezuela has given a renewed rise to questioning about the US’s role and presence in Latin America. The concern is valid. But merely criticizing the current administration for being disengaged and indifferent to what is happening in the region is somewhat misplaced. Rather than blame the current or previous US administrations, it is best to put today’s situation in proper perspective. The fact is over the past decade or so, Latin America has changed in profound ways. Many Latin American economies have performed well and have multiplied their global ties. Politically, they are increasingly confident on the world stage. More than in the recent past, the United States is now but one of many countries involved in the region’s affairs. The United States, too, has changed over the same period. The 2008 financial crisis hit hard and exposed weaknesses in our management of fiscal affairs. The US has endured two draining wars. Senior officials have, understandably, been distracted from this hemisphere. These and other problems – including widening inequality (while the income gap has narrowed in many Latin American countries) and the inability of our political system to reach consensus and effectively address significant national challenges – have not gone unnoticed by our neighbors to the South. The result is that the US relationship with Latin America – which, to be sure, varies widely from country to country – has in general become more distant. The US and Latin America have been moving in separate ways. The drift is a long-term trend -- the direct consequence of globalization and, to a large extent, economic and political progress in Latin America. Particular US policies may have helped alter this tendency to a certain degree -- on the margins -- but the basic direction in this hemisphere has been clear for some time.

Engagement is high now

The absence of engagement is exaggerated. We have extensive ongoing interaction throughout Latin AmericaMichael Shifter, President of the Inter-American Dialogue, March 25, 2014, “US Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Statement before U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3552, Accessed 4/14/2014At the same time, the absence of US engagement and influence in the region today is often exaggerated. A close examination of increased trade and investment in a number of Latin American countries reflects a US private sector that has moved to take advantage of attractive opportunities with our southern neighbors. The US has free trade agreements with 11 Latin American countries. If the Trans-Pacific Partnership comes to fruition, that would mean even closer commercial ties with several countries in Latin America. On the security front, US cooperation with Colombia and Peru has produced real benefits over a sustained period of time. Other security policies in Mexico and Central America -- while inadequate and sometimes misguided -- have, on balance, yielded some useful results. Although the United States has made modest progress on a new agenda focused on energy, education, science, and technology, there is some promise for more significant advance in coming years. It is also a mistake to believe that the creation of regional organizations that do not include the United States (or Canada) is something new that should be viewed as threatening to US interests. The reality is that shared cultural heritage and affinities account for a strong strand of regionalism and integration that far predates the recently established organizations of UNASUR and CELAC. Moreover, the effectiveness of these organizations remains to be seen.

A2: Russia Crowd-Out Advantage

A2: Russia – No Impact

Russian expansion into Latin America is purely symbolicMelanie Batley, Staff Writer, March 21, 2014, “Putin Eyes Latin America, Mocks US Sanctions,” http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ Putin-Latin-America-Navy-Ships/2014/03/21/id/560922/, Accessed 4/21/2014Some foreign relations experts believe, however, that Russia's moves in Latin America are largely symbolic. "I don't see [Russia venturing militarily into Latin America] as really likely," Adam Isacson, defense and security specialist at the human rights organization Washington Office on Latin America, told Fox News Latino. "It could be a goad to the U.S., or an attempt to show the world Russia is no longer a declining military power. Beyond the symbolic level, it may be an attempt to promote arms sales — Russia has been the top vendor of armaments in Latin America for the last couple of years thanks to huge sales to Venezuela."

A2: Russia – No internal link

Russia will focus on NicaraguaF. Michael Maloof, senior staff writer for WND/G2Bulletin, is a former security policy analyst in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, March 22, 2014, “Putin to put Russian bases in Latin America,” http://www.wnd.com/2014/03/putin-to-put-russian-bases-in-latin-america/, Accessed 4/21/2014While published reports say Putin is looking to establish military bases in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, all of whom are close allies of Moscow, WND’s informed sources say the Russian president’s focus will be on Nicaragua, which is relatively politically and economically stable. Putin is reportedly concerned with Venezuela’s instability, since it is going through serious economic problems, with demonstrations eroding the support of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Russia is focused on Venezuela for economic engagementCarl Meacham, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), March 25, 2014, “Is Russia moving in on Latin America?,” https://csis.org/publication/russia-moving-latin-america, Accessed 4/21/2014In recent years, the vast majority of Russian efforts in the region have focused on nurturing the country’s close ideological and economic ties to Venezuela, with a strong focus on arms contracts. And it seems that the Russian attention afforded to Venezuela may have been the first step in a larger effort to expand Russia’s role in the region.

***Disadvantage / CP Updates***

Brazil

Brazil CP

Increasing cooperation specifically on ethanol fosters a broad-based partnership on a host of regional and global issuesCharlene Barshefsky, senior international partner at Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr LLP (WilmerHale) and former U.S. trade representative (USTR) from 1997 to 2001 and as acting and deputy USTR from 1993 to 1996, Shannon K. O'Neil, the fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, Et al, 2008, U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, Report of an Independent Task Force, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/mexico/uzsz-latin-america-relations/p16279, Accessed 4/18/2014Brazil is the fourth-largest democracy and the ninth-largest economy in the world, and it has become an increasingly important actor not only in Latin America but globally. The Task Force recommends that the United States build on its existing and welcome collaboration with Brazil on ethanol to develop a more consistent, coordinated, and broader partnership that incorporates a wide range of bilateral, regional, and global issues. One crucial area for partnership is regional security. Expanding on current peacekeeping efforts, the United States should broaden and deepen regional security cooperation with Brazil. The narcotics trade threatens Brazil’s security, as it is an important transit country for the European drug market and increasingly a consumer country of cocaine and other drugs. Increasing Brazilian involvement in the fight against narcotics through government-to-government cooperation and joint security initiatives will not only ease the U.S. burden in the war on drugs, but will also make U.S. and Brazilian efforts more effective. The United States should also work closely with Brazil to push forward the Doha Round of global trade negotiations. While this would mean changing domestic agricultural policies, U.S. negotiators could then aggressively pursue more open markets in U.S. areas of concern. Finally, energy and climate change provide ample opportunity for deepening ties and securing mutual economic and environmental advantages. Both the United States and Brazil are increasingly turning to LNG to satisfy future energy demands. The United States should work together with Brazil to develop the LNG hemispheric market, benefiting both countries’ energy matrixes. On biofuels, the United States should pursue a broader joint policy initiative that promotes the development of environmentally sensitive alternative fuels in the region and around the world.

China

Links - Cuba

Cuba will say yes to expanding engagement with ChinaYang Yi, Editor, April 21, 2014, “China pledges to boost ties, cooperation with Cuba,” Xinhua News, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/ china/2014-04/21/c_133278632.htm, Accessed 4/21/2014Additionally, China and Cuba need to strengthen coordination in global and regional affairs, and China believes that Cuba will continue to play a positive and constructive role in promoting the development of the China-Latin America relationship, Wang added. Castro, for his part, agreed that Cuba and China enjoy a profound traditional friendship and high-level mutual political trust. Cuba is willing to promote practical cooperation in various areas with China and deepen bilateral exchanges on national construction experience, thus pushing bilateral ties to new heights, said Castro. Rodriguez said that Cuba is willing to expand its practical cooperation with China in economy and trade, as well as investment.

China is reaching out to Cuba nowYang Yi, Editor, April 21, 2014, “China pledges to boost ties, cooperation with Cuba,” Xinhua News, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/ china/2014-04/21/c_133278632.htm, Accessed 4/21/2014 Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Sunday that China will promote bilateral relations and enhance mutually beneficial cooperation with Cuba. Wang made the remarks while meeting separately with Cuban leader Raul Castro and Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez during a visit to Havana, the first stop of his Latin America tour. Wang said that China and Cuba are good friends, comrades and brothers, and the continuous development of a comprehensive friendly relationship with Cuba is China's steadfast diplomatic policy. China is ready to carry on the traditional friendship and promote high-level exchanges with Cuba, he said.

Links - Venezuela

Venezuela is a prime example of China’s economic engagement in Latin AmericaMichael Shifter, President of the Inter-American Dialogue, March 25, 2014, “US Disengagement from Latin America: Compromised Security and Economic Interests,” Statement before U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3552, Accessed 4/14/2014The Venezuelan case also exemplifies Latin America’s growing ties with extra-hemispheric powers. China’s economic role and presence in the region have been growing. China is the main trading partner with Brazil, Peru and Chile, and has expanding commercial relations with a number of other countries. Moreover, roughly half of China’s $100 billion in loan financing to Latin America since 2005 has been directed to Venezuela. China’s economic support for other ALBA members such as Ecuador is also significant.

India

India DA – Impact internal links

India needs economic engagement with Latin America to secure a permanent UN seat and buffer ChinaAbhismita Sen, Staff Writer, March 22, 2014, “Latin American Liaison: A Pursuit for Indian Ascendency?,” International Policy Digest, http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2014/03/22/latin-american-liaison-pursuit-indian-ascendency/, Accessed 4/21/2014However, despite these problems other countries and regions can learn from the Latin American experience. India would do well to replicate some of the same policies. There exists a great deal of similarity between the economic and the social situations of India and Latin America. The quest for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council has encouraged India to elevate its human and economic development. The Indian economy has been underperforming in terms of dollar rates considerably for quite some time now. Latin America can provide the Indian government with greater fiscal space and serve as a source of growth. It can also help India counterbalance its love-hate relationship with China.

***General Impacts, Scenarios, & Ans.***

Amazon Deforestation

A2: Amazon deforestation

Clear-cutting for wood and crops causes deforestationAutumn Spanne, Staff Writer, April 15, 2014, “Deforestation, drought push Amazon toward destruction by fire,” The Daily Climate, http://www.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2014/04/amazon-deforestation-fires, Accessed 4/22/2014Large areas of tropical forest, particularly in the southeastern Amazon, are being logged and cleared for crops. Such practices thin the forest canopy, promote growth of invasive, quick-burning grasses and cause warmer air to move in from cleared lands, drying the forest floor during times of little rain, according to the study.

Land management fires destroy the Amazon. Climate change makes forests vulnerableJames Maynard, Staff Writer, April 16, 2014, “Amazon rain forest's biggest enemies are fire and climate change,” Tech Times, http://www.techtimes.com/articles/5637/20140416/amazon-rain-forests-biggest-enemies-are-fire-and-climate-change.htm, Accessed 4/22/2014Over eight years, researchers set fire to plots of the Amazon rain forest, each of which was nearly 125 acres in size. By studying deaths of the trees, investigators were able to study how drought affects both the intensity of fire and tree mortality. The southeast area of the Amazon, where the experiment was performed, is especially vulnerable to climate change, according to the study. The period of time during which the research was conducted included 2007, during which there was a severe drought in southeastern regions of the Amazonian rain forest. That year, fires destroyed 10 times more forest than in an average year, according to Douglas Morton at NASA. That amounts to an area the size of a million soccer fields. "Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change," Balch and her team wrote in the article announcing the results of the study. A thinning of tree cover not only makes the ground drier, but can encourage the growth of highly-flammable grasses in areas between forest and grassland called edge space. "Efforts to end deforestation in the Amazon must be accompanied by programs and policies that reduce the accidental spread of land management fires into neighboring forests and effectively control forest fires when started," researchers wrote in the article announcing their findings.

Sustainable logging laws cause deforestation in the Peruvian AmazonDavid Hill, Staff Writer, April 17, 2014, “Illegal logging 'plagues' the Peruvian Amazon, says new research,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/andes-to-the-amazon/2014/apr/17/illegal-logging-plagues-peruvian-amazon, Accessed 4/22/2014Attempts to establish sustainable logging practices in the Peruvian Amazon are encouraging illegal activities, according to a report published today by the open-access journal Scientific Reports. Almost 70% of all the logging concessions inspected by Peru’s authorities have been suspected of “major violations”, states the report, and almost 50% have been cancelled “due to confirmed major violations.” This means that out of the total 609 concessions in the entire Peruvian Amazon – 36% of which have not been inspected – almost 45% are either under investigation or have been cancelled.

Fire and droughts have already pushed the Amazon to a tipping pointAutumn Spanne, Staff Writer, April 15, 2014, “Deforestation, drought push Amazon toward destruction by fire,” The Daily Climate, http://www.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2014/04/amazon-deforestation-fires, Accessed 4/22/2014

Deforestation in the Amazon is increasing the region’s vulnerability to droughts and fires, pushing it toward a “tipping point” that could cause rapid, large-scale destruction during dry years, according to a study published Monday. The eight-year study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is the largest, longest-running experiment investigating the effects of fire on tropical forests. It is also the first to show how fire and drought could lead to significant forest die-back in the Amazon, said Jennifer Balch, an assistant professor of geography at Penn State University who co-led the study.

Poor logging management destroys the AmazonDavid Hill, Staff Writer, April 17, 2014, “Illegal logging 'plagues' the Peruvian Amazon, says new research,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/andes-to-the-amazon/2014/apr/17/illegal-logging-plagues-peruvian-amazon, Accessed 4/22/2014In a press release announcing the report, one of the authors, CIEL’s Melissa Blue Sky, called their conclusions “troubling”, and another author, ACA’s Matt Finer, described the situation as a “crisis. . . despite important reform efforts.” “OSINFOR deserves additional support, not less, as the office is increasingly criticized by loggers whose concessions have been canceled,” Finer is quoted as saying. “Such poorly managed or completely uncontrolled logging is a loss for nearly everyone,” another of the authors, Clinton Jenkins, told The Guardian. “The Peruvian people will get less economic return than they could, particularly those who depend more directly on the forest such as some indigenous communities, while Amazonian biodiversity will continue to decline. The governments of Amazonian countries, including Peru, need to manage forests in an ecologically sensible manner, and they need to actually enforce the regulations.”

Economy

China’s economy slowing now

The Chinese economy is experiencing an undeniable slowing trendSophia Yan, Staff Writer, April 8, 2014, “China's economy losing steam,” CNN Money, http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/08/news/ economy/china-economy-survey/, Accessed 4/23/2014China's economy lost momentum in the first quarter and growth in 2014 could fall short of the government's official target, according to a CNN Money survey of economists. Gross domestic product is forecast to have grown by 7.3% in the first quarter, compared with the same period a year ago, according to the median of 12 estimates. Looking ahead, the economists surveyed also expect full-year growth to slow to 7.3%, below the official target of 7.5%. The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to announce first quarter GDP figures next Wednesday. China's GDP growth is being closely watched as the government works to reform the world's second largest economy after years of runaway expansion. A sluggish start to the year is typical, given the Lunar New Year holiday. But there's no denying the slowing trend -- China recorded GDP growth of 7.7% in the last two years, versus 9.3% in 2011 and 10.5% in 2010.

Despite reforms, the Chinese economy is slowingBloomberg News, Staff Writer, April 23, 2014, “China Manufacturing Gauge Signals Economic Weakness,” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-22/china-manufacturing-gauge-signals-weakness-persists-in-economy.html, Accessed 4/23/2014China is trying to balance supporting growth with curbing shadow banking, eliminating overcapacity and reducing pollution. The economy is forecast to expand 7.4 percent this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts last month, which would be the slowest pace since 1990. Growth was 7.7 percent in 2012 and 2013. The manufacturing report, known as the Flash PMI, is typically based on 85 percent to 90 percent of responses to surveys sent to purchasing managers at more than 420 companies. The final reading will be released on May 5. “Domestic demand showed mild improvement and deflationary pressures eased, but downside risks to growth are still evident as both new export orders and employment contracted,” said Qu Hongbin, an economist at HSBC in Hong Kong. He said that more measures may be unveiled in coming months to support growth.

Corporate defaults are inevitable and will drag down the Chinese economySophia Yan, Staff Writer, April 8, 2014, “China's economy losing steam,” CNN Money, http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/08/news/ economy/china-economy-survey/, Accessed 4/23/2014China recently experienced its first corporate default , when a small solar firm failed to make an interest payment to investors. Both the government and experts have indicated that more corporate defaults and bankruptcies are on their way, and could serve as a call to borrowers and lenders to be more responsible. Although experts say such events don't pose a threat to the financial system, letting more companies fail is fraught with risk, as it could further slow China's economy and undermine social stability. A series of defaults could create market turmoil and anger investors who have been promised gains. Other major headwinds include the overheating property market and increasing volatilityin China's yuan, after the central bank allowed it to trade in a wider range in March. "The bottom line is that there is no easy way out of the problems China is facing," said Daiwa's Lai and Tang.

The yuan just hit a 16-month lowBloomberg News, Staff Writer, April 23, 2014, “China Manufacturing Gauge Signals Economic Weakness,” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-22/china-manufacturing-gauge-signals-weakness-persists-in-economy.html, Accessed 4/23/2014China’s economy has yet to respond to policy makers’ stimulus efforts, an April manufacturing gauge indicated today, helping send the yuan to a 16-month low. The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was 48.3 in April, matching the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The reading rose from March’s final figure of 48 while remaining below the expansion-contraction dividing line of 50. Sustained weakness in manufacturing would pressure Premier Li Keqiang to expand pro-growth measures beyond a required- reserves cut for rural banks yesterday and what some analysts have dubbed a “mini stimulus” package of railway spending and tax relief. The report followed data last week showing China’s expansion moderated to the slowest pace in six quarters.

China’s economy is not heading for a crash

The Chinese economic slowdown is overblown and won’t lead to a crashYang Yi, Editor, April 21, 2014, “China economy collapse theory fear-mongering: economist,” Xinhua News, http://news.xinhuanet.com/ english/china/2014-04/21/c_133279125.htm, Accessed 4/23/2014Despite a further slowdown in the first quarter, China will not face a crash as some pessimistic observers warned of, a prominent Chinese economist has said. Yu Yongding, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, disputed the pessimism based on historical precedents and lackluster macro-economic indicators in an article published on Monday in China Securities Journal. Yu was former member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China and President of the China Society of World Economics. His opinion firstly appeared on Project Syndicate, one of the world's leading op-ed websites. He said the complexity and distinctiveness of China's economy meant gloomy predictions were pointless, and that they have repeatedly emerged in the past 30 years but never came true. Yu also dismissed concerns over the country's high leverage ratio and property bubble.

Latin America – Economic growth low

Latin American economic slump inevitable but will rebound in 2015Andres Oppenheimer, Staff Writer, April 16, 2014, “Latin America’s forecasts may be too rosy,” Miami Herald, http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/04/12/4053787/andres-oppenheimer-latin-americas.html, Accessed 4/18/2014What's most interesting about the World Bank and International Monetary Fund economic projections released last week was not that they forecast a slower-than-expected growth in Latin America for 2014 — we already knew that — but that they foresee a rebound in 2015 and 2016. Are the good times coming back to the region? Or are the world's largest financial institutions once again being too optimistic?According to the IMF's semi-annual report released at its spring meeting in Washington on April 8, Latin America's economy will grow by 2.5 percent this year, and by 3 percent next year. That's lower than the region's growth rates in the past decade, but suggests that its economies may soon begin to rebound.

Latin American economic growth will continue to fall in 2014 and 2015 in a long-term slideSergio Cascione, Staff Writer, April17, 2014, “Latin America's economic growth prospects fizzle on local concerns,” Petroleum World,http://www.petroleumworld.com/storyt14041701.htm, Accessed 4/18/2014The next two years look more challenging for Latin American economies than previously thought, with prospects for slower growth and higher inflation defying recent market optimism about emerging markets. Prospects for economic growth in 2014 and 2015 were down across the board from a similar Reuters poll in January for all seven major Latin American countries except Colombia, according to the consensus view of over 50 economists polled. That contrasts with encouraging signs from other regions such as Europe and the United States. It also suggests that a recent rally in foreign exchange and stock markets in places like Brazil and Chile might not last. Forecasts for economic growth this year were cut by 0.8 percentage points on average, with Argentina and Venezuela now expected to be in a full-blown recession and Brazil growing by less than 2 percent - its fourth straight year of weakness. The outlook for 2015 was also downgraded for five countries - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Venezuela. "Unfortunately, lower growth for the region does not seem to be a temporary event. What is becoming clearer is that, probably with the exception of Mexico, LatAm may have to endure a tough period of reforms and productivity gains in the years ahead," said Andre Loes, chief economist for Latin America with HSBC.

U.S. economy strong now

Warmer temperatures are boosting economic activity across the boardPaul Wiseman and Josh Boak, Staff Writers, April 21, 2014, “Thawing out: Warmer Temperatures Lift US Economy,” ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/thawing-warmer-temperatures-lift-us-economy-23413027, Accessed 4/23/2014Spring's thaw is reviving the economy, too. A recent batch of government and business reports show a U.S. economy emerging from winter's deep freeze. Economists had expected growth to accelerate in 2014 after two years of slow and steady improvement. But an unusually bitter winter sent factories, hiring and consumer spending into hibernation. Now, as temperatures rise, the economy is regaining momentum. Factories are busier. Consumers are spending more. Banks are making more loans to businesses. Companies have bigger plans to invest in plants and equipment. And the improvement appears to be widespread across the country.

A better job market and factory production are boosting the economyVictoria Stilwell, Staff Writer, April 21, 2014, “Improving Job Market Driving Rebound in U.S. Growth: Economy (1),” Bloomberg News Business Week, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-04-21/gain-in-u-dot-s-dot-leading-index-points-to-second-quarter-rebound, Accessed 4/23/2014An improving job market and increasing factory production in March contributed to a jump in the U.S. index of leading indicators that signals the pace of economic growth is poised to snap back. The Conference Board’s index, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, rose 0.8 percent, the most since November, after a 0.5 percent gain in February, the New York-based group said today. The measure’s 6.1 percent advance over the past year is the biggest since July 2011. “The fact that we’re seeing some broad improvement across components bodes pretty well for the economy,” said Sarah House, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, which is the best forecaster of the leading index over the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “The underlying pace of activity is picking up.”

The U.S. economy will continue to grow with renewed manufacturingPaul Wiseman and Josh Boak, Staff Writers, April 21, 2014, “Thawing out: Warmer Temperatures Lift US Economy,” ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/thawing-warmer-temperatures-lift-us-economy-23413027, Accessed 4/23/2014Many economists expect the economy to grow at an annual rate of 3 percent or more from April through June, up from an estimated 1.3 percent the first three months of the year. The positive economic news has sparked a rally on Wall Street the past week. The Standard & Poor's 500 index is up 0.9 percent for the year and is near its record close of 1,890 set April 2. Helping to drive the growth have been recent increases in manufacturing after tumbling in January. Factory production climbed 0.5 percent in March, after a 1.4 percent surge the previous month, the Federal Reserve reported last week. This suggests that manufacturers anticipate that demand from businesses and consumers will increase.

Job growth and manufacturing are boosting economic growth for the second quarterLucia Mutikani, Staff Writer, April 17, 2014, “Jobless claims, factory data put some shine on economy,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/17/us-usa-economy-idUSBREA3F0U920140417, Accessed 4/23/2014

New claims for jobless benefits hovered near their pre-recession levels last week and manufacturing in the Mid-Atlantic region accelerated in April, suggesting an upswing in economic activity after a brutally cold winter. Coming on the heels of fairly bullish data on retail sales and industrial production, Thursday's reports also hinted job growth may be picking up slightly. "The data add further evidence to the notion that the economy has exerted positive momentum at the start of the second quarter," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

U.S. is key to the global economy

Despite a small decline in influence, the U.S. is still the engine of global growthSimon Kennedy and Ilan Kolet, Staff Writers, April 11, 2014, “U.S. Global Growth Engine Putt-Putts Instead of Purring: Economy,” Bloomberg News, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/u-s-as-global-growth-engine-putt-putts-instead-of-purring.html, Accessed 4/14/2014The U.S. is resuming its role as an engine of global growth, this time one that just putt-putts along instead of purring. As the International Monetary Fund declares the strengthening U.S. economy is providing a “major impulse” to the world, economists are questioning just how powerful it will prove to be. The U.S. contribution to global expansion from 2014 to 2019 will likely average about two-thirds that of the quarter-century before the recession started in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on IMF projections. “The U.S. is still the most important engine of global growth although perhaps not as much as it once was,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

The U.S. is still key to the global economyTom Keane, Staff Writer, April 13, 2014, “World economy no longer hangs on the US,” Boston Globe, http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/04/12/world-economy-longer-hangs/GRC0rfo0QP2YT5q4qpFw8L/story.html, Accessed 4/14/2014So now that the United States appears poised to bounce back, does the world bounce back as well? The International Monetary Fund says yes — it expects the US revival to translate to global revival . The fund’s World Economic Outlook, just released this month, figures worldwide economic activity will grow in 2014 by 3.6 percent (up from 2013’s 3.0 percent) and in 2015 by 3.9 percent. “Much of the impetus” for that, the IMF says, is “coming from advanced economies” — namely, the United States. So the metaphor still holds. We matter. We really do matter. But perhaps not as much as we once did.

Climate Change

Warming Real / Anthropogenic

Warming is anthropogenic with 99% certaintyBrooks Hays, Staff Writer, April 11, 2014, “New study rules out natural factors as source of climate change,” UPI News, Accessed 4/22/2014, http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2014/04/11/New-study-rules-out-natural-factors-as-source-of-climate-change/9161397251852/New statistical analysis suggests -- with 99 percent certainty -- that the planet is not warming as a result of natural causes. Instead of relying on complex mathematical models to predict the future effects of greenhouse gases, McGill University physics professor Shaun Lovejoy decided to test the plausibility of climate skeptics' contention that global warming is a natural process. Using temperature data collected from 1500 onward, Lovejoy crunched the numbers, and the math all but rules out the possibility that modern global warming is simply the natural fluctuation in the earth’s climate. “This study will be a blow to any remaining climate-change deniers,” Lovejoy said. “Their two most convincing arguments -- that the warming is natural in origin, and that the computer models are wrong -- are either directly contradicted by this analysis, or simply do not apply to it.”

Climate change is happening now and will only get worse. No one will be untouched Suzanne Goldenberg, Staff Writer, March 31, 2014, “Climate change a threat to security, food and humankind - IPCC report,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/31/climate-change-threat-food-security-humankind, Accessed 4/23/2014A United Nations report raised the threat of climate change to a whole new level on Monday, warning of sweeping consequences to life and livelihood. The report from the UN's intergovernmental panel on climate change concluded that climate change was already having effects in real time – melting sea ice and thawing permafrost in the Arctic, killing off coral reefs in the oceans, and leading to heat waves, heavy rains and mega-disasters. And the worst was yet to come. Climate change posed a threat to global food stocks, and to human security, the blockbuster report said. “Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change,” said Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the IPCC.

IPCC Report Good

The new report is the most comprehensive and exhaustive study to dateSuzanne Goldenberg, Staff Writer, March 31, 2014, “Climate change a threat to security, food and humankind - IPCC report,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/31/climate-change-threat-food-security-humankind, Accessed 4/23/2014Monday's report was the most sobering so far from the UN climate panel and, scientists said, the most definitive. The report – a three year joint effort by more than 300 scientists – grew to 2,600 pages and 32 volumes. The volume of scientific literature on the effects of climate change has doubled since the last report, and the findings make an increasingly detailed picture of how climate change – in tandem with existing fault lines such as poverty and inequality – poses a much more direct threat to life and livelihood.

The IPCC report should silence climate deniers. Probability is on our sideSimon Jenkins, Staff Writer, March 31, 2014, “The IPCC report takes us from alarmism to adaptation,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/31/ipcc-report-adaptation-climate-change, Accessed 4/23/2014At last there are signs of a change of climate over climate change. Seven years of alarmism have yielded endless conferences and gargantuan sums of public expenditure, with no serious impact on carbon emissions. In a bitter irony, the state that has been most hostile to the concept, America, has been the leader in emissions reduction, largely through a free market shift from coal to gas. Today's report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change should silence those who believe there is no debate to be had. On even the mildest precautionary principle, policymakers should take note of the shifts – whether temporary or lasting – in the composition of the earth's atmosphere. They are told to look with their own eyes at specific impacts, from glaciation to crop and fish yields . Sceptics may challenge some of these, but the balance of probability is clear. Something is happening that will matter to most of the world's inhabitants.

IPCC Report Bad

The IPCC report was devoid of ethical standards of scienceMike Tobin, Staff Writer, April 9, 2014, “UN finding on climate change is just a bunch of hot air, new report claims,” Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/science/2014/04/09/new-report-claims-un-findings-on-climate-change-is-just-bunch-hot-air/, Accessed 4/22/2014The findings are a stark contrast to the messages from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which in a report released last week concluded that in many regions of the earth, changing precipitation and melting snow are altering hydrological systems, which negatively impact the quantity of water resources. The IPCC’s report also states that climate change is forcing terrestrial, freshwater and marine species to shift their geographical ranges and migration patterns. But the Heartland Institute says the scientific community is under tremendous financial and peer pressure to reach the conclusion that global industry is damaging the environment. “Ethical standards have been lowered, peer review has been corrupted, and we can’t trust peers in our most prestigious journals anymore,” Joe Bast, President and CEO of Heartland Institute, told Fox News.

The IPCC report is marked by alarmist conclusions based on shoddy scienceJames M. Taylor, J.D., Senior Fellow, The Heartland Institute; Managing Editor, Environment and Climate News, April 8, 2014, “Comprehensive Report Documents Beneficial Impacts of Global Warming,” http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2014/04/08/ comprehensive-report-documents-beneficial-impacts-global-warming, Accessed 4/22/2014The new report explains how and why IPCC reaches unjustifiably alarmist conclusions. “Whether the subject is the likely effects of warming on crops, trees, weeds, birds, butterflies, or polar bears, it seems IPCC invariably picks the studies and models that paint global warming in the darkest possible hues. IPCC sees ‘death, injury, and disrupted livelihoods’—to borrow a phrase from Working Group II—everywhere it looks,” Biological Impacts reports. “Oftentimes, IPCC’s pessimistic forecasts fly in the face of scientific observations,” Biological Impacts reports. “The global ecosystem is not suffering from the rising temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels IPCC has called ‘unprecedented,’ despite all the models and hypotheses IPCC’s authors marshal to make that case. Real-world data show conclusively that most plants flourish when exposed to higher temperatures and higher levels of CO2 and that the planet’s terrestrial biosphere is undergoing a great post-Industrial Revolution greening that is causing deserts to retreat and forests to expand, enlarging habitat for wildlife. Essentially the same story can be told of global warming’s impact on terrestrial animals, aquatic life, and human health.” “By ignoring observational evidence that does not support their politically motivated conclusions, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change promotes unjustified fear about climate change,” said Tom Harris, executive director of the International Climate Science Coalition.

Climate alarmism is continually disproven and the IPCC is controlled by politicsChristopher Booker, Staff Writer, April 5, 2014, “How did the IPCC’s alarmism take everyone in for so long?,” The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10746497/How-did-the-IPCCs-alarmism-take-everyone-in-for-so-long.html, Accessed 4/23/2014When future generations come to look back on the alarm over global warming that seized the world towards the end of the 20th century, much will puzzle them as to how such a scare could have arisen. They will wonder why there was such a panic over a 0.4 per cent rise in global temperatures between 1975 and 1998, when similar rises between 1860 and 1880 and 1910 and 1940 had given no cause for concern. They will see these modest rises as just part of a general warming that began at the start of the

19th century, as the world emerged from the Little Ice Age, when the Earth had grown cooler for 400 years. They will be struck by the extent to which this scare relied on the projections of computer models, which then proved to be hopelessly wrong when, in the years after 1998, their predicted rise in temperature came virtually to a halt. But in particular they will be amazed by the almost religious reverence accorded to that strange body, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , which by then will be recognised as having never really been a scientific body at all, but a political pressure group. It had been set up in the 1980s by a small band of politically persuasive scientists who had become fanatically committed to the belief that, because carbon dioxide levels were rising, global temperatures must inevitably follow; an assumption that the evidence would increasingly show was mistaken.

The new IPCC report is not useful for policymakers because it ignores economicsDiana Liverman, director of the Institute of the Environment at the University of Arizona and Amy Glasmeier, professor of economic geography and regional planning at MIT, April 22, 2014, “What Are the Economic Consequences of Climate Change?,” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/04/the-economic-case-for-acting-on-climate-change/360995/, Accessed 4/22/2014For most people, what matters are not the global economic impacts, but the effects on the places they live and work. The IPCC report spends a lot of time on how climate will affect agriculture and natural resources. Although, worldwide, as much as one-third of all those employed work in agriculture, this share is decreasing and the agricultural sector contributes about three percent to the overall value of the global economy. The report says relatively little about the impacts on sectors that now drive economic development and are the major sources of employment: the chemical, textile, electronics, and automobile industries; retail, health services, and real estate. This is a problem, not only for the relevance of IPCC, but for the research community in general. We look to assessments such as the IPCC's to translate the science for government leaders, and more importantly to increase public awareness of the potential consequences of climate change, not just in the abstract but how it will affect their own jobs and wallets. These reports have far-reaching repercussions. If the panel has little to say or is uncertain about how climate change will impact the important parts of our economies, then everyone is less likely to take the reports seriously.

Alarmist IPCC predictions are based on flawed computer modelsChristopher Booker, Staff Writer, April 5, 2014, “How did the IPCC’s alarmism take everyone in for so long?,” The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10746497/How-did-the-IPCCs-alarmism-take-everyone-in-for-so-long.html, Accessed 4/23/2014Most of the particularly alarmist predictions came from a report by the IPCC’s Working Group II. This was concerned with assessing the impact on the world of those changes to the climate predicted by the equally flawed computer models relied on by Working Group I, which was charged with assessing the science of climate change. The technical report published last week was its sequel, also from Working Group II, and we can at once see, from its much more cautious treatment of the subjects that caused such trouble last time, that they knew they couldn’t afford any repeat of that disaster.

CO2 Good - Agriculture

CO2 increases forest and vegetative productivity that offsets warmingJames M. Taylor, J.D., Senior Fellow, The Heartland Institute; Managing Editor, Environment and Climate News, April 8, 2014, “Comprehensive Report Documents Beneficial Impacts of Global Warming,” http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2014/04/08/ comprehensive-report-documents-beneficial-impacts-global-warming, Accessed 4/22/2014Biological Impacts documents increasing productivity of forests and grasslands as CO2 levels have inceased both in recent decades and in centuries past, countering IPCC assertions to the contrary. The new volume also presents the scientific evidence that a more productive biosphere effectively sequesters much of the carbon dioxide IPCC claims will cause additional warming. “The ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content is causing a great greening of the Earth. All across the planet, the historical increase in the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration has stimulated vegetative productivity. This observed stimulation, or greening of the Earth, has occurred in spite of many real and imagined assaults on Earth’s vegetation, including fires, disease, pest outbreaks, deforestation, and climatic change,” Biological Impacts reports.

The best evidence proves CO2 increases agricultural productionJames M. Taylor, J.D., Senior Fellow, The Heartland Institute; Managing Editor, Environment and Climate News, April 8, 2014, “Comprehensive Report Documents Beneficial Impacts of Global Warming,” http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2014/04/08/ comprehensive-report-documents-beneficial-impacts-global-warming, Accessed 4/22/2014The report counters frequent assertions that global warming imperils agricultural production and will cause widespread hunger. To the contrary, the best scientific evidence indicates global warming benefits agricultural production. “There is little or no risk of increasing food insecurity due to global warming or rising atmospheric CO2 levels. Farmers and others who depend on rural livelihoods for income are benefitting from rising agricultural productivity throughout the world, including in parts of Asia and Africa where the need for increased food supplies is most critical. Rising temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels play a key role in the realization of such benefits,” the report explains.

CO2 Bad – A2: Food/Agriculture

CO2 might increase growth but it reduces nutritionAren Bleier, Staff Writer, April 8, 2014, “Food quality at risk if climate change continues, study says,” CBS News, http://www.cbsnews.com/ news/food-quality-at-risk-if-climate-change-continues-study-says/, Accessed 4/22/2014The nutritional quality of food crops may be at risk if climate change intensifies, according to a recent study. In a wheat field test, scientists found that elevated carbon dioxide may inhibit plants' assimilation of nitrate into proteins. The findings were published online in the journal Nature Climate Change on April 6. "Food quality is declining under the rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide that we are experiencing," said lead author Arnold Bloom, a professor in the Department of Plant Sciences in University of California-Davis, in a statement. The first study that may prove what many laboratory studies already demonstrated, elevated levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere inhibited nitrate assimilation in the leaves of grain and non-legume plants. The assimilation, or processing, of nitrogen plays a key role in the plants' growth and productivity; it's also important for humans, since these plants use nitrogen to produce proteins that are vital for human nutrition. Wheat provides nearly one-fourth of all protein in the global human diet.

Impacts – Food Supply

Climate change is already undermining food stocks globallySuzanne Goldenberg, Staff Writer, March 31, 2014, “Climate change a threat to security, food and humankind - IPCC report,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/31/climate-change-threat-food-security-humankind, Accessed 4/23/2014"Climate change is acting as a brake. We need yields to grow to meet growing demand, but already climate change is slowing those yields," said Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton professor and an author of the report. Other food sources are also under threat. Fish catches in some areas of the tropics are projected to fall by between 40% and 60%, according to the report. The report also connected climate change to rising food prices and political instability, for instance the riots in Asia and Africa after food price shocks in 2008. "The impacts are already evident in many places in the world. It is not something that is [only] going to happen in the future," said David Lobell, a professor at Stanford University's centre for food security, who devised the models.