afferro mining valuation review · 2013. 7. 21. · contained iron compared to the sector average...

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19 July 2013 Afferro Mining is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited Afferro ticks all the major boxes in terms of the quality of its asset base, projects’ diversity and potential access to infrastructure. While Nkout is a large magnetite deposit with a potential early stage DSO operation, Ntem is a smaller scale, and hence more affordable, project, which is only 80km from the coast. This, coupled with the positive met test results and a robust maiden resource estimate, suggests that Ntem could be Afferro’s first project into production. Trading at an EV/resource of US$0.05/t, the AFF stock should be well supported by positive operational news flow and expectations of the successful completion of the IMIC takeover. Year end Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT* (US$m) EPS* (c) P/E (x) Yield (%) 12/11 0.0 (4.1) (4.3) (4.5) N/A N/A 12/12 0.0 (4.3) (5.2) (5.0) N/A N/A 12/13e 0.0 (3.5) (3.7) (3.5) N/A N/A 12/14e 0.0 (3.5) (3.9) (3.7) N/A N/A Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments. Quality assets with potential access to infrastructure Afferro scores well in terms of both the quality of its asset base and potential access to infrastructure. The latter is difficult to overestimate, given the amount of constrained projects struggling to raise funds and make it into production. Further, an MoU with POSCO as well as the latest offer from IMIC, an infrastructure developer in Africa with strong Chinese relationships, suggest that the company is well advanced with the potential strategic partner/investor deal, which could result in off-take and project funding and ease infrastructure constraints. Infrastructure could unlock the region’s potential IMIC’s offer values Afferro at US$193m in equity, or US$0.13/t on an EV/resource basis. Following a definitive agreement between Afferro and IMIC (24 June), the shareholder vote should take place by the end of August, with the completion of the deal expected in September. Since IMIC is involved in infrastructure development in Africa, iron ore in particular, it could therefore be instrumental in bringing together an infrastructure solution for Nkout and other iron ore projects in Cameroon/Congo. This could help to unlock the value of a region that host a number of promising iron ore deposits and could be the next large iron ore exporter. Valuation: Attractive on every metric With some US$84m in cash, Afferro trades at an EV/resource of just US$0.05/t of contained iron compared to the sector average multiple of US$0.21/t. Using the PEA assumptions and a long-term benchmark iron ore price of US$90/t, we arrived at a base case unrisked NPV10 estimate for Nkout of US$3.3bn on an attributable basis, or US$2.7/share diluted. This does not take into account US$0.8/share in available cash. Further, our preliminary model suggests that Ntem could be worth another US$242m in NPV10. Due to its estimated relatively low capex and robust project economics, Ntem could be a fast-track route to production for Afferro. Afferro Mining Projects update and valuation review Ticking all the major boxes Price 80.0p Market cap £84m £1.53/US$ Net cash (US$m) as at Q113 84 Shares in issue 105.0m Free float 94% Code AFF Primary exchange TSX-V Secondary exchange AIM Share price performance % 1m 3m 12m Abs 3.6 8.1 50.5 Rel (local) (0.7) 1.4 26.2 52-week high/low 101.2p 42.0p Business description Afferro Mining is a West African iron ore explorer that advances its 100%-owned flagship Nkout iron project in Cameroon. Other assets include the 100%-owned Ntem and Akonolinga projects, as well as a 70% interest in Ngoa, an exploration target adjacent to Nkout. Next event Nkout DSO/SAP met test results Q313 Analysts Andrey Litvin +44 (0)20 3077 5755 Charles Gibson +44 (0)20 3077 5724 [email protected] Edison profile page Metals & mining

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  • 19 July 2013

    Afferro Mining is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

    Afferro ticks all the major boxes in terms of the quality of its asset base, projects’ diversity and potential access to infrastructure. While Nkout is a large magnetite deposit with a potential early stage DSO operation, Ntem is a smaller scale, and hence more affordable, project, which is only 80km from the coast. This, coupled with the positive met test results and a robust maiden resource estimate, suggests that Ntem could be Afferro’s first project into production. Trading at an EV/resource of US$0.05/t, the AFF stock should be well supported by positive operational news flow and expectations of the successful completion of the IMIC takeover.

    Year end Revenue (US$m)

    EBITDA (US$m)

    PBT* (US$m)

    EPS* (c)

    P/E (x)

    Yield (%)

    12/11 0.0 (4.1) (4.3) (4.5) N/A N/A 12/12 0.0 (4.3) (5.2) (5.0) N/A N/A 12/13e 0.0 (3.5) (3.7) (3.5) N/A N/A 12/14e 0.0 (3.5) (3.9) (3.7) N/A N/A Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments.

    Quality assets with potential access to infrastructure Afferro scores well in terms of both the quality of its asset base and potential access to infrastructure. The latter is difficult to overestimate, given the amount of constrained projects struggling to raise funds and make it into production. Further, an MoU with POSCO as well as the latest offer from IMIC, an infrastructure developer in Africa with strong Chinese relationships, suggest that the company is well advanced with the potential strategic partner/investor deal, which could result in off-take and project funding and ease infrastructure constraints.

    Infrastructure could unlock the region’s potential IMIC’s offer values Afferro at US$193m in equity, or US$0.13/t on an EV/resource basis. Following a definitive agreement between Afferro and IMIC (24 June), the shareholder vote should take place by the end of August, with the completion of the deal expected in September. Since IMIC is involved in infrastructure development in Africa, iron ore in particular, it could therefore be instrumental in bringing together an infrastructure solution for Nkout and other iron ore projects in Cameroon/Congo. This could help to unlock the value of a region that host a number of promising iron ore deposits and could be the next large iron ore exporter.

    Valuation: Attractive on every metric With some US$84m in cash, Afferro trades at an EV/resource of just US$0.05/t of contained iron compared to the sector average multiple of US$0.21/t. Using the PEA assumptions and a long-term benchmark iron ore price of US$90/t, we arrived at a base case unrisked NPV10 estimate for Nkout of US$3.3bn on an attributable basis, or US$2.7/share diluted. This does not take into account US$0.8/share in available cash. Further, our preliminary model suggests that Ntem could be worth another US$242m in NPV10. Due to its estimated relatively low capex and robust project economics, Ntem could be a fast-track route to production for Afferro.

    Afferro Mining Projects update and valuation review Ticking all the major boxes

    Price 80.0p Market cap £84m

    £1.53/US$ Net cash (US$m) as at Q113 84

    Shares in issue 105.0m

    Free float 94%

    Code AFF

    Primary exchange TSX-V

    Secondary exchange AIM

    Share price performance

    % 1m 3m 12m

    Abs 3.6 8.1 50.5

    Rel (local) (0.7) 1.4 26.2

    52-week high/low 101.2p 42.0p

    Business description

    Afferro Mining is a West African iron ore explorer that advances its 100%-owned flagship Nkout iron project in Cameroon. Other assets include the 100%-owned Ntem and Akonolinga projects, as well as a 70% interest in Ngoa, an exploration target adjacent to Nkout.

    Next event Nkout DSO/SAP met test results Q313

    Analysts Andrey Litvin +44 (0)20 3077 5755

    Charles Gibson +44 (0)20 3077 5724

    [email protected]

    Edison profile page

    Metals & mining

    http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/Afferro-Mining

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 2

    Investment summary

    Company description: Iron ore in Cameroon Afferro is an established iron ore explorer with four projects in Cameroon. The company’s flagship Nkout project is a large-scale magnetite deposit that could support a long-life iron ore operation with a low-cost DSO phase to generate early cash flow and ease financing pressures. Under the shared infrastructure scenario and a base case 35Mtpa production run rate, Nkout’s opex is estimated at US$33/t, while external funding is forecast at US$3.9bn (see page 7) In turn, the Ntem project boasts close proximity to the coast, which, coupled with the strong met test results and a maiden compliant resource estimate, make it a strong contender for being first into production. Ntem could deliver a small-scale operation with moderate capex and a product that is trucked to the port.

    Projects’ positioning: Ticking all the major boxes Afferro should benefit from access to the new deep water port complex near Kribi, with the first phase slated for commissioning in H214. With one of the transportation legs in place, the railway solution that is required to bring Nkout’s product to the seaborne market becomes more viable. Ntem is only 80km from the Kribi port with the potential of road haulage, which could significantly reduce its lead time and execution risks. While Cameroon is short of electricity, the recently commissioned Kribi power station added 216MW, increasing the country’s generating capacity to 1.2GW, with a number of hydropower projects coming on stream in the next one to two years. Finally, an MoU with POSCO as well as the latest offer from IMIC, a Chinese-backed infrastructure developer in Africa, suggest that Afferro is well advanced with the potential strategic partner/investor deal, which could result in off-take and project funding as well as easing the infrastructure constraints.

    Valuation: Robust NPV based on conservative pricing As shown below (Exhibit 15), Afferro has strongly outperformed its peers since mid-2012 driven by positive operational news flow, a strong balance sheet and M&A potential. We believe that the stock should remain well supported by the upcoming met test results at Nkout, the global MRE6 update as well as expectations of the successful completion of the reverse takeover by IMIC. With US$84m in cash, Afferro trades at an EV/resource of US$0.05/t against sector average of US$0.21/t and an RTO (reverse takeover) implied multiple of US$0.13/t. Using the assumptions outlined in the PEA, as well as a long-term benchmark iron ore price of US$90/t, we value Nkout at US$3.3bn on an NPV10 basis, or US$2.7/share diluted. The company’s current cash position contributes another US$0.8/share. In addition, our preliminary model suggests that Ntem could be worth US$242m in NPV10, providing the company with a much clearer and faster path to production.

    Sensitivities and risks: Commodity pricing, funding Commodity pricing, infrastructure and funding are the key risks attached to the company. Tightening capital allocation policies in the resource space coupled with weakening commodity demand make access to infrastructure and therefore the ability to bring the project into production as important as the quality of the project itself. On the commodities side, while we do not foresee any dramatic changes in the iron ore price in the medium term, any protracted weakness in pricing could undermine the ability of the early stage exploration projects to grow and attract funding.

    Financials: Solid cash cushion limits downside Afferro Mining is well capitalised, with c US$84m in cash following the sale of its 38.5% interest in the Putu iron ore project to Severstal for US$106m post tax. These funds should be enough to advance both Nkout and Ntem through the feasibility study stage. The company’s large cash position (US$0.80 or £0.52/share) provides a floor to its valuation.

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 3

    Company description: Iron ore in Cameroon

    Afferro is an established iron ore explorer with four projects at various development stages in Cameroon. Its flagship Nkout project is a large-scale magnetite deposit some 330km from the port, with a completed PEA and advanced metallurgical studies to support the upcoming PFS. Afferro’s Ntem project boasts close proximity to the coast, which, coupled with the recently announced strong metallurgical test results and a maiden resource estimate, make it a strong contender for being first into production. Afferro is well capitalised with enough cash on hand to advance both Nkout and Ntem through the feasibility study stages.

    Exhibit 1: Map of Afferro’s projects Exhibit 2: Map of Cameroon power projects

    Source: Afferro Source: Afferro

    Projects’ positioning: Ticking all major boxes Afferro scores well in terms of both the quality of its asset base and potential access to infrastructure. The latter is difficult to overestimate, given the number of constrained projects struggling to raise funds and make it into production. Further, an MoU with POSCO as well as the latest approach by IMIC, an infrastructure developer in Africa with strong Chinese relationships, suggest that the company is well advanced with the potential strategic partner/investor deal, which could result in off-take and project funding and ease infrastructure constraints.

    Project and transport infrastructure Afferro should be able to benefit from access to the new deepwater port near Kribi, with a first phase already slated for commissioning in H214. While additional investments will be needed to build a dedicated bulk commodities terminal at Kribi, the first phase should be able to support a smaller-scale operation such as Ntem, providing it with an export opportunity. We also believe that with a deepwater port already in place, a potential railway solution required to bring the larger-scale Nkout into production becomes more viable.

    While Cameroon is short of electricity, the recently commissioned Kribi power station added 216MW to the country’s generating capacity, increasing it to 1.2GW. Further, a number of the hydropower projects are expected to be launched in the medium to long term. In particular, the Lom Pangar hydro project (120MW) is forecast to be completed in H214, while Memve’ele (200MW) is guided for commissioning in mid-2017. All this bodes well for the energy-intensive iron ore operation. Importantly, the majority of infrastructure is being built by Chinese contractors and is predominantly based on Chinese funding.

    Memve’ ele Hydro 201MW 2017

    Mekin Hydro 20MW Existing

    Nachtigal Hydro 250MW TBA

    Njock Hydro 70-200MW TBA

    Grand Eweng 1,200MW TBA

    Song Loulou Hydro 398MW Existing TBA

    Dbamba HFO 398MW Existing TBA

    Kribi Gas-fired 216MW 2013

    Song Mbenge Hydro 900MW 2019

    Edea Hydro 264MW Existing

    Song Ndong Hydro 280MW

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 4

    Quality and diversity of the asset base With 2.5bn tonnes in NI 43-101 compliant resource, Nkout is capable of hosting a large-scale, long-life iron ore operation, delivering a premium grade sinter fines or pellet feed concentrate. The project’s magnetite ore is relatively coarse and soft, which means relatively low energy consumption and processing cost, and is overlain by a high-grade oxidised cap that could be processed in a DSO plant, delivering early cash flow. Despite a smaller scale, the Ntem project boasts a favourable location as it is situated just 80km from the Kribi port. Coupled with the recently delivered encouraging metallurgical test results and a maiden compliant resource estimate, this suggests that Ntem could be a low-cost, fast-track option to production using the road haulage. Conservatively assuming capex of US$250m and opex of US$44/t, we estimate the project would generate US$242m in NPV10.

    Strategic partnership/investment While the negotiations with Jindal Steel and Power have been terminated in early 2013, Afferro has subsequently signed an MoU with POSCO Africa, which could lead to a project level investment through the joint venture. In addition, Afferro has been approached by IMIC, which on 22 May made a recommended reverse takeover offer to acquire the company. Both IMIC and POSCO have capabilities to contribute to the infrastructure solution.

    Exhibit 3: Afferro projects’ positioning Nkout Ntem Ngoa Akonolinga DSO potential 72.5Mt of oxide cap (50% Fe and above),

    with 19.9Mt at 60.6% Fe. According to the met tests, material grading above 53% Fe could be upgraded to a 60% Fe plus product using a simple (ie low-cost) attrition scrubbing method.

    Not available at the moment Magnetite mineralisation is overlain by the high-grade weathered material. Initial drill campaign delivered multiple high-grade intercepts of up to 61.1% Fe.

    Chip sampling showed mineralisation of up to 67% Fe, averaging 57% Fe.

    Project quality The overall NI 43-101 compliant resource is 2.5bn tonnes at 32.4%, with M&I of 1.6bn tonnes at 33.3%. The BIF resource comprises 88% of the total. The project’s ore is relatively coarse and soft, which means low power requirement to grind and points to a low processing cost.

    Initial NI 43-101 resource of 116Mt at 34% Fe, with an additional 50-150Mt that could be proved up subject to more drilling. Met tests yielded a premium concentrate at mass recovery as high as 47% and a coarse grind size.

    No compliant resource or met tests are available at this stage.

    No compliant resource or met tests are available at this stage.

    Transport infrastructure Nkout is 320km from the coast and will need a dedicated railway line to deliver the product to the seaborne market. Construction of a new deep water port near Kribi, which is designed to ship iron ore, with the first phase expected to be commissioned in mid-2014, increases chances for the railway line to be built. If IMIC is involved, it could be in a position to contribute to the potential infrastructure solution for Nkout and well as other regional mining projects. Ntem is only 80km from the Kribi port, which makes road haulage a viable option. The company is looking at this route, with an infrastructure scoping study completed in Q213.

    Project infrastructure The recently commissioned Kribi power station increased the country’s overall generating capacity by 20% to 1.2GW. There are a number of hydropower projects that could be launched in the medium to long term further improving the regional power availability. Since energy accounts for roughly 30% of the mining cash cost, access to cheap power is crucial.

    Development stage PFS Scoping Scoping Scoping Strategic partnership IMIC, an investment company focused on mining infrastructure, has launched a takeover bid, while POSCO, a top-tier steel producer, is

    considering making a project-level investment. Source: Edison Investment Research

    Projects overview

    Nkout Nkout is the company’s most advanced exploration project. It has been brought through a PEA in 2012, with a pre-feasibility study to start as soon as practicably possible. The project has 2.5bn tonnes in total NI 43-101 compliant resource grading 32.4% Fe and, according to the PEA, could be brought into production by 2017/18e. However, this is subject to securing project finance and off-take as well as bringing the local infrastructure up the curve including construction of a railway. Nkout consists of three deposits – Centre, East and West, which cover approximately 12km of a larger 20km strike length magnetic anomaly. Mineralisation is dominated by magnetite, which is overlain by the high-grade oxidised hematite material that could be upgraded through a single-

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 5

    stage DSO plant. Afferro currently owns 100% of the project, but once the mining licence is granted, the Cameroon government will be entitled to a 10% free-carry interest.

    Ntem Compared with Nkout, Ntem is a slightly less advanced iron ore project based in south-west Cameroon. While relatively small in scale, it appears to be one of the best positioned within the Afferro’s asset portfolio in terms of potential access to infrastructure as it is located just 80km from the deep sea port complex near Kribi. An infrastructure scoping study is underway to assess the potential for road haulage to the port. The project has been brought through an extensive two-phase exploration campaign that formed the basis for a maiden NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate of 116Mt at 34% Fe. The metallurgical test results suggest that Ntem could deliver concentrate grading 65-69% Fe at mass and met recoveries of 44-47% and 81-82% respectively, and a coarse grind size of 75-150µm.

    Ngoa Afferro holds a 70% interest in the Ngoa magnetite BIF iron ore exploration project in South Cameroon. Ngoa is adjacent to Nkout and could be viewed as a satellite project supporting Nkout’s production scalability. The two-stage drilling campaign, comprising 33 holes over 1,790m and targeting mineralisation along the 1km strike open at depth, delivered multiple high-grade interceptions that included 11m at 61.1% Fe, 9m at 54.6%, 13m at 47.0% and 28m at 45.6%.

    Akonolinga Akonolinga is based in South Cameroon, some 85km north-west from Nkout, and is the least advanced project in the company’s portfolio. An airborne magnetic survey identified multiple strong targets, while rock sampling has shown an average iron mineralisation of 57% Fe.

    Infrastructure: Unlocking the region’s potential

    China is the biggest consumer and importer of iron ore. According to the Australian Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (BREE), in 2012 China bought 745Mt of iron ore on the seaborne market and is expected to increase its seaborne iron ore imports to 966Mt by 2018, an implied CAGR of 4.4%. The largest iron ore exporters are Australia and Brazil, which between them control an impressive 72% of the world’s seaborne iron ore trade. Despite a visible slowdown in economic activity, China’s steel consumption is likely to grow at a low single-digit rate, as the country continues its transformation towards a high middle income level, with GDP growth to be increasingly driven by consumption rather than investments and exports. This should continue to push iron ore demand higher, albeit at a much lower pace. If China’s steel consumption returns to a trend seen in 2008-11, which given the current market conditions looks a fairly optimistic assumption, we believe that by 2020 China’s apparent steel use could reach 1.1bn tonnes of crude steel (against 669Mt in 2012). Based on a more conservative growth pattern, established in 2011-13, we estimate that China’s apparent steel demand could increase to 755Mt in crude steel equivalent. This would imply iron ore consumption of 1.6bn and 1.3bn tonnes respectively (assuming Chinese domestic production at 62% Fe equivalent). Further, assuming that China maintains the same share of imports, it could therefore be sourcing some 1.1/0.9bn tonnes of iron ore from the seaborne market by 2020, a 47/20% increase on 2012 respectively.

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 6

    Exhibit 4: World seaborne iron ore exports Exhibit 5: World seaborne iron ore imports

    Source: BREE Source: BREE

    Exhibit 6: China’s steel consumption: bull vs bear case Exhibit 7: China’s steel demand vs iron ore imports

    Source: BREE, WSA, Edison Investment Research Source: WSA

    While the larger share of new supply is likely to come from Australia and Brazil, China is very keen to increase its self-sufficiency and, according to BREE, aims to source up to 40% of its iron ore imports from Chinese-owned foreign projects by 2015. As such, we believe that Africa represents a compelling opportunity for China to secure supplies of the key steelmaking raw material. In Africa, both Cameroon and Guinea could potentially be viewed as major iron ore producing regions competing for project and infrastructure investments. While both have individual strengths and weaknesses, we note that Cameroon stands out for the quality of its projects (such as the large scale and high grade of Sundance’s Mbalam and Core’s Avima deposits), its relatively advanced infrastructure (potential to increase power supplies, nearly complete Kribi port) and is known to be a mining and investor friendly jurisdiction, with a supportive fiscal regime. All this suggests that Cameroon has a high chance of success in becoming the next large iron ore exporter capable of delivering up to 100-125Mtpa of iron ore between Sundance, Afferro, Core and Equatorial (up to 15% of China’s seaborne imports). However, for the region’s mining potential to be unlocked, it needs a dedicated railway line (similar to the transport corridor proposed by Sundance/Hanlong and supported by the Cameroon government), which would extend for c 520km connecting the projects with the deepwater port near Kribi. We believe that IMIC could play a crucial role in bringing the region’s transport infrastructure up the curve, as it has already secured MoUs with China’s state-owned Railway Materials Company and Railway Group. Afferro’s Nkout project is positioned on the route of the potential transport corridor and should therefore benefit from access to export infrastructure.

    Australia44%

    Brazil29%

    India2%

    Canada3%

    South Africa4%

    Other18% EU 2711%

    Japan12%

    China66%

    South Korea6%

    Other5%

    100200300400500600700800900

    1,0001,100

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

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    e20

    14e

    2015

    e20

    16e

    2017

    e20

    18e

    2019

    e20

    20e

    Economic stimulusimpact

    Implied iron ore consumption of 1.6Bt

    Implied iron ore consumptionof 1.3Bt

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014e 2016e 2018eIron ore imports, Mt Steel consumption (crude eq.), Mt

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 7

    Nkout PEA recap

    The NI 43-101 compliant Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for Nkout, which was released in May 2012, showed that the project is economically viable and could support a large-scale iron ore operation. The study considered three production rates with a 35Mtpa base case scenario based on the phased mining and processing of the DSO (attrition scrubbing), SAP (gravity and magnetic separation with a potential to simplify processing by combining it with DSO) and then BIF (magnetic separation) material and a three-year ramp-up period. The PEA builds on the 2011 mineral resource estimate (MRE3, see Exhibit 9) of 2.0bn tonnes at 32% Fe, with the inferred portion included in the optimised pit shell of 1.7bn ROM tonnes yielding 703Mt of the saleable product. At a 35Mtpa run rate, this would support a 21-year mine life. However, the latest MRE5 upgrade saw the project’s measured and indicated resource (proxy for the mining reserve) rising to 1.6bn tonnes at 33.3% Fe, or 63% of total. The high-grade DSO and SAP resource, at 50% Fe and above, increased to 72.5Mt (from 36.4Mt), supporting an early stage DSO operation that could ease financing pressures on the company. The project’s direct cash opex was estimated at US$33-38/t (35/15Mtpa) under the shared infrastructure scenario, which is based on a railway cost of US$4.9/t as the line and port are expected to be built by the consortium of mining companies. Assuming the transport infrastructure is built by a third-party investor, as envisaged by the full tariff scenario, the rail cost rises to US$15/t (US$0.046/t/km). Under the shared infrastructure solution, the project’s external funding is estimated at US$2.5-3.9bn (based on the PEA data), which is the overall pre-production capital cost of US$3.0-4.8bn (15-35Mtpa) net of the early stage internal cash flow. Under full tariff option, the overall capital cost falls to US$2.4-3.6bn. The PEA implies capital intensity of US$137/t for the shared infrastructure solution and US$102/t for the full tariff scenario.

    Exhibit 8: Capex breakdown under the shared scenario Exhibit 9: 35Mtpa C1 opex, shared infrastructure, US$/t

    Source: Afferro Source: Afferro

    What has changed since PEA

    Since the completion of the PEA, Afferro has further advanced its projects, with detailed bulk test results for DSO, SAP and BIF material announced at Nkout and the initial metallurgical testing completed at Ntem. The scale of these tests supports the PFS level.

    DSO/SAP met test results: Potential to combine Bulk metallurgical testing conducted on the potential DSO material showed that samples grading 53% Fe and above could be beneficiated using simple attrition scrubbing to a fines product of 59-64% Fe. The attrition scrubbing testwork on the fines product led to a 4pp increase in grade and reduction in silica and alumina. Due to the soft nature of the ore, the DSO operation is likely to have a low energy requirement for crushing as the Bond Work Index (BWI) averaged at just 2.6kWh per

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    35Mtpa 25Mtpa 15MtpaMine site, pre-stripping DSO/SAP/BIF concentratorsOn-site infrastructure Rail/portOwner's costs, EPCM Contingency

    05

    101520253035

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  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 8

    tonne. This suggests a simple crushing circuit with low capex and high throughput. Afferro is currently undertaking more detailed bulk metallurgical testing on the saprolite material aiming to reduce both capex and opex by removal of milling and combining the SAP and DSO processing into a single circuit. This could have a substantial impact on the PEA capex estimate.

    BIF met test results: Sufficient iron liberation at a coarse grind size Davis Tube Wash tests based on the five composite BIF samples confirmed that a premium sinter fines magnetite concentrate is achievable at a grind size of 80% passing the 106-150µm range. This is considered to be a coarse particle size for magnetite as many BIF deposits are very fine grained, requiring grinding to 25-35µm. Typically, the coarser the ore, the lower the processing cost, which in the case of magnetite represents a substantial part of opex. At 150µm and 106µm, the five BIF samples from Nkout delivered average concentrate grades of 64.2% and 68.1% Fe, and met recovery of 79% and 78% at a company estimated mass yield of 40.2% and 38.4% respectively. The tests also show that an iron grade as high as 70% Fe could be achieved at pellet feed grind size of 70µm. A pilot-scale testing for 106µm, 125µm and 150µm grind sizes is underway.

    Exhibit 10: Nkout BIF bulk met test results for the 106-150µm grind size Sample Feed grade, % Grind size Mass recovery, % Met recovery, % Concentrate grade, % SiO2, % Al2O3, % 1 33.3 150 45.6 88.5 66.6 6.6 0.2

    106 48.8 90.2 69.1 3.2 0.3 2 33.9 150 48.9 89.2 65.9 7.7 0.1

    106 46.8 89.4 69.0 3.6 0.1 3 33.5 150 37.6 72.3 63.3 10.2 0.6

    106 35.5 72.0 67.8 5.2 0.2 4 25.3 150 29.3 63.5 59.4 13.2 1.8

    106 22.5 58.7 66.0 6.5 1.1 5 31.4 150 39.8 79.4 66.0 7.6 0.3

    106 38.2 78.8 68.6 4.2 0.2 Source: Afferro

    Exhibit 11: Nkout’s Bond work index versus typical magnetite BWI

    Source: Afferro

    Ntem metallurgic test results At Ntem, both Davis Tube Recovery (DTR) and Low Intensity Magnetic Separation (LIMS) test works showed that the project’s magnetite ore could be sufficiently upgraded to produce a premium concentrate with high mass recovery and low deleterious elements. A pilot-scale LIMS test on a 15kg composite sample yielded a 65-69% Fe concentrate at an impressive mass yield of 44-47% from a coarse grind size of 75 to 150 microns. The combined alumina (Al) and silica (Si) content ranges from 4.4% to 8.8%. DTR testwork was consistent with LIMS results, in that it delivered a concentrate averaging 71% Fe with very low deleterious elements (combined Al and Si of just 2%) at an average mass recovery of 42% and a grind size of 80% passing 45 microns.

    05

    10152025303540

    1000 500 250 150 106 75 45 30

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    kWh/t

    Nkout - BWI 15.2kWhr/t Average - BWI 20kWhr/t

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 9

    Exhibit 12: Ntem pilot-scale metallurgical test results summary Grind size, micron Feed grade, %Fe Mass recovery, % Met recovery, % Grade, %Fe Silica, % Alumina, % 75 37.4 44.2 80.9 68.5 4.3 0.1 106 37.2 44.9 81.2 67.2 6.1 0.2 150 37.3 46.7 81.6 65.2 8.6 0.2 Source: Afferro

    Nkout MRE5 update On 30 May Afferro released an updated NI 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate (MRE5) for the Nkout project, which saw further improvements in the quality of the resource base. While the total tonnage has remained virtually unchanged at 2.5bn tonnes, albeit at a higher average grade of 32.4% Fe compared to 31.5% before, the project's total indicated resource was increased by 34% to 1.6bn at 33.3% Fe. Being the proxy for the mining reserve, measured and indicated resource is required to support the PFS. The important feature of the update is the substantial upgrade in the high-grade saprolite material, with indicated SAP resource rising to 44.5Mt at 51.8% Fe. In addition, some 3.2Mt of the DSO material was promoted to the indicated category, which now stands at 19.9Mt at 60.5% Fe. Furthermore, some 274Mt of BIF and 86Mt of oxidised BIF was converted into indicated resource. The company guides MRE6 in Q413 to support the PFS, with the DSO/SAP and BIF measured and indicated resource target of 225Mt and 1.7bn tonnes respectively. Exploration work at Nkout continues primarily with in-fill drilling at Nkout West, with an aim to upgrade the inferred resource. In addition, in-fill drilling has been conducted at the south-western extension of Nkout Centre and the potential DSO zone to the west of Nkout East.

    Exhibit 13: Nkout NI43-101 mineral resource estimate progression MRE5, 2013 MRE4, 2012 MRE3, 2011 Mineralised zone Resource category Tonnes, Mt Fe, % Tonnes, Mt Fe, % Tonnes, Mt Fe, % 110 (oxidised, >55% Fe) Measured and Indicated 19.9 60.6 16.7 60.5 0.0 -

    Inferred 0.1 57.8 2.4 58.8 18.5 60.3 120 (oxidised, 50-55% Fe) Measured and Indicated 44.5 51.8 8.4 52.0 0.0 -

    Inferred 8.0 50.0 8.9 52.4 7.9 51.5 130 (oxidised, 30-50% Fe) Measured and Indicated 86 39.1 0.0 - 0.0 -

    Inferred 124 36.6 248 35.0 217 36.1 210 (magnetite BIF) Measured and Indicated 1,435 32.0 1,161 32.3 944 32.7

    Inferred 787 29.7 1,067 28.9 811 29.6 Total Measured and Indicated 1,585 33.3 1,187 32.9 944 32.7

    Inferred 919 30.8 1,326 30.3 1,054 31.6 Grand total 2,504 32.4 2,513 31.5 1,999 32.1 Source: Afferro

    Strategic partnership and value realisation scenarios

    Afferro is well advanced with the potential strategic partnership/investment transaction, which is crucial for bringing a large-scale iron ore project into production. Following the termination of discussions with Jindal in early 2013, Afferro had signed a MoU with POSCO Africa (February 2013) and has recently been approached by IMIC, a company focused on infrastructure development in Africa. While POSCO could still be instrumental in securing project funding and off-take, IMIC’s involvement could help the company ease the infrastructure constraints.

    IMIC reverse takeover On 22 May IMIC launched a recommended reverse takeover (RTO) of Afferro offering 80p in cash plus a tradable convertible loan note of 40p for each Afferro share. The convertible loan notes will carry an 8% coupon paid at the end of the 24-month period or on conversion into IMIC shares at IMIC’s discretion. Successful completion of the transaction is subject to the approval of the shareholders of both Afferro and IMIC as well as a number of regulatory and financing conditions. We understand that two-thirds of Afferro shareholders will have to vote in favour of the deal in order

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 10

    for it to come through. The board of Afferro, which recommends shareholders support the deal, in aggregate owns 6.3% of Afferro shares, while IMIC controls about 19.2% of the company. Following a definitive agreement between Afferro and IMIC (announced on 24 June), the shareholder vote (both Afferro and IMIC) should take place by the end of August, with the completion of the deal expected in September 2013. The offer values Afferro at US$193m in equity (based on a £1.53/US$ exchange rate) or US$109m in EV. This implies an EV/resource multiple of US$0.13/t (assuming no risk adjustment/discounting of the deferred part) and compares to the company’s current resource valuation of US$0.05/t.

    Exhibit 14: IMIC offer compared to the current market valuation Total price

    consideration, £ Equity value,

    US$m Net cash, US$m EV,

    US$m Contained Fe in

    resource, Mt Implied

    EV/resource IMIC offer 1.20 192.9 84.0 108.9 850 0.13 Current market 0.80 127.3 84.0 43.3 850 0.05 Source: Afferro, Edison Investment Research

    We note that the December 2011 sale of Afferro’s 38.5% interest in the Putu iron ore project in Liberia to Severstal for US$115m valued the project at an EV/resource multiple of US$0.27/t of contained iron. That said, given the depressed commodity pricing and sentiment as well as the recently collapsed Sundance/Hanlong deal, which means that the fate of the proposed railway line is now uncertain, IMIC’s takeover could be a good opportunity to further derisk Afferro’s projects by reducing the infrastructure constraints.

    IMIC is an AIM-listed fund set up to invest in early-stage mining projects, with a particular focus on infrastructure development. It has strong Chinese backing and is well placed in Africa. Afferro is IMIC’s strategic investment in the mining space, with its 19% shareholding. IMIC signed off-take and infrastructure co-operation agreements for Nkout with the China Railway Materials Company and China Railway Group, which could be instrumental in bringing Afferro’s projects into production. IMIC is involved in the Simandou South iron ore project’s infrastructure development.

    POSCO MoU Afferro had signed a MoU with POSCO that covers the Nkout, Ntem and Akonolinga iron ore projects in Cameroon. While the MoU is non-binding and non-exclusive, the companies will work towards signing the definitive agreement. The deal could result in a project level investment from POSCO to advance the Afferro assets to the development stage. Beyond that, POSCO, a top tier global steel producer with extensive upstream and downstream expertise, should be instrumental in facilitating the project and infrastructure financing.

    Sensitivities and risks

    Commodity pricing, infrastructure and funding are the key risks attached to the company (see our assumptions below). Tightening capital allocation policies in the resource space coupled with weakening commodity demand make access to infrastructure and therefore the ability to bring the project into production as important as the quality of the project itself. On the commodities side, while we do not foresee any dramatic changes in the iron ore price in the medium term, any protracted weakness in pricing could undermine the ability of the early stage exploration projects to grow and attract funding.

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 11

    Valuation: Supportive M&A and news flow

    Afferro has strongly outperformed its peers since mid-2012 driven by positive operational news flow, improved balance sheet liquidity and M&A potential. Along with expectations of the successful completion of the reverse takeover by IMIC (expected in the next two to three months), the stock could also remain well supported by news on further met test results at Nkout (potential to combine DSO/SAP processing) as well as the global MRE6 update ahead of the PFS. With c US$84m in cash, Afferro trades at an EV/resource multiple of just US$0.05/t compared to the sector average of US$0.21/t and an RTO implied multiple of US$0.13/t. This suggests that the market values Afferro assets at only US$43m. While the deterioration in iron ore pricing and sentiment, as well as the muted steel/iron ore supply-demand outlook continues to weigh on the sector’s valuation, with the junior explorers being the hardest hit, Afferro’s strong balance sheet, positive news flow as well as the abating infrastructure risks bode well for the company and its valuation.

    Exhibit 15: AFF performance versus the peer group Exhibit 16: AFF performance versus iron ore price

    Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

    Exhibit 17: Iron ore peer valuation comparison Development

    stage Price, US$ Market cap,

    US$m EV, US$m Attributable

    resource, Mt Iron content,

    %Fe Contained Fe, Mt EV/Resource

    African Minerals Production 3.55 1,175 1,290 12,851 31.2% 4,010 0.32 Sundance Exploration 0.08 236 199 2,306 42.2% 973 0.20 London Mining Production 1.48 205 354 2,106 33.1% 697 0.51 Afferro Exploration 1.21 127 43 2,619 32.5% 850 0.05 Equatorial Exploration 0.64 78 13 767 31.9% 245 0.05 Baobab Exploration 0.21 64 61 616 34.0% 209 0.29 Zanaga Exploration 0.17 48 7 3,400 32.0% 1,086 0.01 Bellzone Production 0.06 44 -31 4,630 25.9% 1,199 neg Average 0.21 Source: Bloomberg, company data, Edison Investment Research

    Nkout’s indicative valuation To value Nkout we looked at three different production scenarios, with a 35Mtpa run rate and shared infrastructure solution being the base case as per the PEA. We note that the PEA does not provide detailed mine and product schedules for the 15Mt and 25Mtpa run rates, ruling out a more in-depth valuation. Based on the operating and capital cost assumptions outlined in the study, our unrisked and ungeared NPV10 estimate for the 35Mtpa production scenario is US$3.3bn on an attributable basis (Afferro’s 90% share). The 15Mtpa production scenario yields US$0.9bn in an attributable indicative valuation. Our model is based on the following key assumptions: Three years of production roll out from 2018, with saleable output ramping up from 17Mtpa of

    SAP and DSO to a steady state 35Mtpa of SAP and BIF from the third year. A 21-year life of mine.

    0.0

    0.3

    0.6

    0.9

    1.2

    1.5

    1.8

    Jan/1

    2

    Mar/1

    2

    May/1

    2

    Jul/1

    2

    Sep/1

    2

    Nov/1

    2

    Jan/1

    3

    Mar/1

    3

    May/1

    3

    Jul/1

    3

    AFF SDL ZIOC BZM EQX

    0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8

    Jan/1

    2

    Mar/1

    2

    May/1

    2

    Jul/1

    2

    Sep/1

    2

    Nov/1

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    May/1

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    Jul/1

    3

    AFF, US$ 62% Fe CFR iron ore, US$/t (rebased)

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 12

    A long-term iron ore price of US$90/t (62% Fe, CFR China), value-in-use adjustment based on the current spot premium of US$2.5 for one Fe unit and a freight rate of US$20/t to China. We assume no off-take participation haircut.

    Real costs and commodity pricing in US dollar terms. A 2.5% royalty and a 25% corporate tax rate. We assume no tax holiday, although there is a

    chance that the project will be granted a five-year period of tax breaks. A 10% real discount rate. We did not adjust the discount rate to account for the external and

    internal risks such as execution, commodity price, infrastructure, etc.

    Our analysis suggests that a 35Mtpa run rate the project will be capable of generating average net revenue and EBITDA (C1 cash margin) of US$2.7bn and US$1.5bn (US$46.4/t) respectively.

    Our Nkout model yields the following sensitivities for the 35Mtpa scenarios: A 10% reduction in benchmark iron ore price reduces the NPV by 30% and vice versa. A 1pp increase in the discount rate leads to a 14% reduction in the NPV. A 10% increase in the overall unit cash cost leads to a 13% reduction in the NPV. A 10% increase in pre-production capex reduces the NPV by 8%. A five-year tax holiday adds US$587m (16%) to our NPV estimate.

    Finally, we looked at the potential value dilution assuming that the company will need to finance part of the project’s capex through an equity raise. Assuming that capex is 50:50 debt to equity financed, and that the cash is raised at the current share price of US$1.2, the project’s diluted valuation would equate to US$2.7 per share.

    Exhibit 18: Nkout value dilution analysis Share price, US$ 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.5 Shares in issue, m 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 Funds to be raised, US$m 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399 Shares to be issued, m 9,596 4,798 3,199 2,010 1,599 1,200 960 New number of shares, m 9,701 4,903 3,304 2,115 1,704 1,305 1,065 Pre-funding valuation, US$m 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 Post-funding valuation US$m, 5,650 5,650 5,650 5,650 5,650 5,650 5,650 Valuation per share, US$ 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 Source: Edison Investment Research

    Ntem indicative valuation Following the release of the maiden NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate and positive metallurgical test results at Ntem, we put together a preliminary model assessing the potential economics and value of the project based on a small-scale, low-cost operation using the road haulage to the port. Taking into account Ntem’s total indicated and inferred resource of 115.5Mt at 34.1% Fe and conservatively applying an inferred resource conversion ratio of 50%, we assumed the project’s mineable resource of c 77Mt, which at an estimated 2.5Mtpa run rate and a 3% mining dilution, would support a 15-year mine life. The project’s metallurgical test results (see Exhibit 12) suggest that it is capable of producing a sinter concentrate grading 67% Fe at a mass recovery of 45% and a relatively coarse magnetite grind size of 106µm. Given the silica and alumina levels for the different particle sizes, we consider this grind size as a base case. Our preliminary valuation for Ntem is based on the following assumptions: A 2.5Mtpa iron ore operation supported by the 77Mt resource inventory, producing a high-grade

    sinter fines at 67% Fe and a mass recovery of 45%. This implies average ROM production of 5.6Mtpa at a head grade of 37% Fe.

    A total cash cost of US$44/t of saleable product based on a mining cost of US$4.7/t of ROM (in line with Nkout’s PEA), a processing cost of US$7.5/t of ROM (while Nkout’s PEA is based on US$6.5/t at 150 microns, we account for the potential higher grinding requirement to achieve the 106µm particle size) as well as other direct cash costs and G&A of US$5/t of product. We assume that the concentrate will be trucked to the port. To estimate the cost of road haulage,

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 13

    we note that Nkout’s PEA is based on a third-party railway tariff of US$0.05/t/km (which is broadly in line with other West African projects). We therefore conservatively assumed a cost of trucking of US$0.15/t/km (three times the cost of railway haulage), which, based on the 80km distance to the port and 2.5Mtpa throughput, translates into a transportation cost of US$30/t of concentrate.

    An upfront capital cost of US$250m based on a capital intensity of US$100/t. We believe this is a reasonable estimate for the project, which does not require any transport infrastructure.

    As in case of Nkout, we use a benchmark iron ore price of US$90/t (CIF China), which adjusted for the higher Fe content (assuming a US$2.5 premium per one Fe unit) and freight of US$20/t translates into a released price of US$83/t.

    A 2.5% royalty, 25% corporate tax rate and a grace period of five years.

    All in all, our model yields US$242m in an NPV for the project based on a 10% discount rate. We believe that Ntem has a strong potential as it benefits from the robust project parameters (a relatively high mass recovery, reducing plant throughput, and a soft nature of the ore will keep opex low) and proximity to the port, which should be able to swallow small quantities of iron ore already at a first stage of development. In addition, the relatively small scale of the operation suggests that the project should be much easier to bring into production for a company of Afferro’s size.

    Financials: A large cash cushion limits downside

    Afferro is well capitalised with c US$84m in cash (as of March 2013) on the balance sheet following the sale of its 38.5% interest in the Putu iron ore project to Severstal for US$106m (post-tax). This should be enough to advance its Nkout and Ntem projects through the PFS/FS development stages. The company’s large cash position (US$0.80/£0.52/share) also provides a floor to its valuation.

  • Afferro M

    ining | 19 July 2013 14

    Exhibit 19: West Africa’s major independent iron ore projects Company Project Country Stage Ownership Compliant

    resource, Mt Head

    grade, %Fe Production Infrastructure Capital expenditure

    African Minerals Tonkolili Sierra Leone Production 100% 12,851 31.2 Phase 1: up to 20Mtpa DSO (58% Fe), Phase 2: 35Mtpa fines (64% Fe)

    from 2016

    Phase 1: Pepel port, rail (200km); Phase 2: Pepel expansion, rail requires

    upgrade

    Phase 1: US$1.2bn Phase 2: US$2.0bn

    London Mining Marampa Sierra Leone Production 100% 1,008 30.9 Phase 1: up to 5.0Mtpa (2013e), Phase 2: 9Mt (up to 16Mt)

    Phase 1: Trucking and barging; Phase 2: Port/rail (pipeline)

    Phase 1: US$0.2bn Phase 2: US$1.5bn

    Bellzone Forecariah Guinea Production 50% 307 29.5 Phase 1: 1Mtpa DSO (58% Fe). First shipment in December 2012.

    Phase 2: sinter fines (subject to infrastructure)

    Phase 1: Trucking to port; Phase 2: Concentrator and railway

    Phase 1: US$208m Phase 2: US$118m

    Bellzone Kalia Guinea DFS 100% 5,540 28.0 From 6Mtpa in 2015e up to 45Mtpa of combined oxide and magnetite

    product

    Infrastructure (port and railway) is expected to be financed by China

    Infrastructure Fund (CIF)

    On-site capex of US$4.4bn; Port/rail is estimated at

    additional US$2.7bn ZIOC (in JV with Glencore Xstrata)

    Zanaga Congo BFS 50% 6.8Bt in total resource; 2.5Bt

    in probable reserve

    32.0 (MI&I)/34.0

    (P&P)

    Up to 30Mtpa of 68% Fe pellet feed at full capacity, BFS is due in 2014,

    first production is possible in 2018e.

    Pipeline to the greenfield deep water port near the existing port in Pointe

    Noire

    US$7.4bn in total capex, with a potential for reduction through

    the staged development or lower capacity

    Sundance Mbalam Cameroon/ Congo

    DFS 81% 2,847 42.2 Up to 35Mtpa at capacity. Phase 1: DSO (64% Fe), Phase 2: Hematite

    sinter concentrate (66% Fe)

    Originally proposed transport corridor: deep water port near Kribi and railway

    from Mbarga (510km)

    Phase 1: US$4.7bn Phase 2: US$3.1bn

    Afferro Nkout Cameroon PFS 100% 2,504 32.4 Up to 35Mtpa depending on the production scenario.

    Either co-shared based on the proposed rail corridor, or independent

    line; deep water port near Kribi

    Ranging from US$3.0bn (15Mtpa) to US$4.8bn (35Mt)

    Afferro Ntem Cameroon Scoping 100% 116 34.1 A small-scale operation of 2.0-2.5Mtpa of sinter fines is likely.

    As only 80km from the port near Kribi, road haulage could be a viable option

    Compliant estimate is not available, but there is a

    potential for a relatively small-scale operation with low capex.

    Core Mining Avima Congo FS 100% 690 58.0 Up to 35Mtpa of DSO from 2017e Requires both rail and port, could join the proposed transport corridor

    Not available

    Cape Lambert Marampa Sierra Leone PFS 100% 680 28.2 A 15Mtpa scoping study completed, the project is at the feasibility and

    permitting stage

    An 80km rail line requires refurbishment. Shared infrastructure

    agreement with AMI for 2Mtpa

    Stage 1: US$0.4bn; Stage 2: US$1.9bn

    Equatorial Mayoko-Moussondji

    Congo Scoping 100% 767 31.9 Staged development with an initial 2Mtpa operation based on hematite resource to produce 64% Fe sinter

    fines concentrate.

    Adjacent to the existing rail line, which is expected to connect the project with

    the deep water port in Pointe Noire.

    Stage 1: US$231m, including mine, rail, port and

    contingency.

    Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 15

    Exhibit 20: Financial summary US$'000s 2011 2012 2013e 2014e Year end 31 December IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS PROFIT & LOSS Revenue 0 0 0 0 Cost of Sales 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 0 0 0 0 EBITDA (4,077) (4,265) (3,450) (3,450) Operating Profit (before except.) (4,654) (5,450) (4,450) (4,450) Stock based compensation (2,563) (956) (500) (500) Operating Profit (7,217) (6,406) (4,950) (4,950) Net Interest 102 310 773 537 Other 289 (93) 0 0 Exceptionals 111,940 81,916 0 0 Profit Before Tax (norm) (4,263) (5,233) (3,677) (3,913) Profit Before Tax (IFRS) 105,114 75,727 (4,177) (4,413) Tax 0 0 0 0 Profit After Tax (norm) (4,263) (5,233) (3,677) (3,913) Profit After Tax (IFRS) 105,114 75,727 (4,177) (4,413) Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) 93.9 104.5 105.0 105.0 EPS - normalised (c) (4.5) (5.0) (3.5) (3.7) EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c) (4.2) (4.7) (3.3) (3.5) EPS - (IFRS) (c) 112.0 72.5 (4.0) (4.2) Dividend per share (c) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gross Margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A EBITDA Margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A BALANCE SHEET Non-current assets 28,222 51,169 70,919 90,669 Resource Properties 1,886 1,886 1,886 1,886 PP&E 2,743 3,363 3,113 2,863 Deferred exploration costs 23,592 45,490 65,490 85,490 Other 0 430 430 430 Current Assets 34,437 90,258 66,831 43,168 Inventories 217 205 205 205 Receivables 1,396 1,070 1,070 1,070 Cash 9,855 62,983 39,556 15,893 ST deposits 0 26,000 26,000 26,000 Assets held for sale 22,969 0 0 0 Liabilities (2,850) (4,051) (4,051) (4,051) Payables (2,850) (4,051) (4,051) (4,051) Net Assets 59,810 137,377 133,699 129,787 CASH FLOW Operating Cash Flow (4,833) (3,591) (3,450) (3,450) Net Interest 102 237 773 537 Tax 0 0 0 0 Capex (22,540) (23,062) (20,750) (20,750) Acquisitions/disposals (13,614) 104,759 0 0 Financing 25,191 765 0 0 Dividends 0 0 0 0 Other (10,555) 21 0 0 Net Cash Flow (26,250) 79,129 (23,427) (23,663) Opening net debt/(cash) (36,104) (9,855) (88,983) (65,556) HP finance leases initiated 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Closing net debt/(cash) (9,855) (88,983) (65,556) (41,893) Source: Afferro Mining, Edison Investment Research

  • Afferro Mining | 19 July 2013 16

    Contact details Revenue by geography Burleigh House 355-359 Strand London – WC2R 0HS United Kingdom +44(0)2070107680 www.afferro-mining.com

    N/A

    CAGR metrics Profitability metrics Balance sheet metrics Sensitivities evaluation EPS 2010-14e N/A EPS 2012-14e N/A EBITDA 2010-14e N/A EBITDA 2012-14e N/A Sales 2010-14e N/A Sales 2012-14ee N/A

    ROCE 13e N/A Avg ROCE 2010-14e N/A ROE 13e N/A Gross margin 13e N/A Operating margin 13e N/A Gr mgn / Op mgn 13e N/A

    Gearing 13e N/A Interest cover 13e N/A CA/CL 13e N/A Stock days 13e N/A Debtor days 13e N/A Creditor days 13e N/A

    Litigation/regulatory Pensions Currency Stock overhang Interest rates Oil/commodity prices

    Management team President and CEO: Luis Guilherme Cabrita da Silva CFO: Bevan John Metcalf Luis took over the role of president and chief executive in October 2007, having joined Mano River in February of the same year as chief financial officer. He gained his extensive international experience with the multinationals Lafarge and Blue Circle Industries as well as Stevin Rock, formerly of the Dragomar Group. He is currently a non-executive director of Stellar Diamonds, Aureus Mining and GB Minerals.

    Bevan is a chartered accountant with 27 years of global experience in the pharmaceutical and mining industries. He has a bachelor of management studies degree and was granted ACA membership of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of New Zealand in 1986. In 2004, Bevan joined African Eagle Resources, a mineral exploration company focused on eastern and central Africa.

    COO: Peter Wilson Taylor VP Technical: Chris Larder Peter joined Afferro Mining in December 2009. He has held senior management roles in mining, heavy civil engineering and aviation with blue-chip organisations including De Beers , Balfour Beatty International and British Midland Airways.

    Chris has spent nearly 30 years in the mining and mineral processing industry worldwide. Throughout 2010 and 2011, Chris was technical manager for Crosslands Resources on its multi-billion dollar iron ore project in Australia.

    Principal shareholders (%) IMIC 19.2 JP Morgan 7.0 Capital 4.8 Macquarie 4.7 Investec 4.7 Blackrock 2.1 Julius Baer 0.5

    Companies named in this report African Minerals, London Mining, Bellzone, ZIOC, Sundance, Equatorial Resources

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    Quality assets with potential access to infrastructureInfrastructure could unlock the region’s potentialValuation: Attractive on every metricInvestment summaryCompany description: Iron ore in CameroonProjects’ positioning: Ticking all the major boxesValuation: Robust NPV based on conservative pricingSensitivities and risks: Commodity pricing, fundingFinancials: Solid cash cushion limits downside

    Company description: Iron ore in CameroonProjects’ positioning: Ticking all major boxesProject and transport infrastructureQuality and diversity of the asset baseStrategic partnership/investment

    Projects overviewNkoutNtemNgoaAkonolinga

    Infrastructure: Unlocking the region’s potentialNkout PEA recapWhat has changed since PEADSO/SAP met test results: Potential to combineBIF met test results: Sufficient iron liberation at a coarse grind sizeNtem metallurgic test resultsNkout MRE5 update

    Strategic partnership and value realisation scenariosIMIC reverse takeoverPOSCO MoU

    Sensitivities and risksValuation: Supportive M&A and news flowNkout’s indicative valuationNtem indicative valuation

    Financials: A large cash cushion limits downside