africa hazards briefing august 16, 2011 miliaritiana robjhon [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
850 hPa Wind Vector Anomalies
• Heavy rains off the coast of West Africa, Nigeria, Chad, western Sudan were linked to anomalous westerlies during the past week.
Last Week This Week
Weekly Rainfall Totals: West Africa
• Continuation of more localized rainfall distribution in the Sahel, with heavy rains observed in central Senegal and western Niger.
• Moderate rains observed in western Mali.
Rainfall patterns in MaliRainfall anomaly, 3rd Dekad of July Rainfall anomaly, May-July
Source: Aminata Makalou, Mali Met. Ser.
Rainfall patterns in Niger
Rainfall totals, July Rainfall anomaly
Source: Special Bulletin for Agriculture for Niger
Rainfall patterns in NigeriaRainfall totals, 3rd Dekad of July Rainfall anomaly, 3rd Dekad of July
Soil moisture
Source: James Adamu, NIMET
7 Day
30 Day
Last Week This Week
Kayes, Mali
Gaya, Niger
Vegetation Conditions
NDVI anomaly
Vegetation Health Index
Source: NESDIS/STAR
• Improvement in Niger, but persistent poor conditions along the Mauritania-Mali and eastern Nigeria.
Last Week This Week
Weekly Rainfall Totals: Eastern Africa
Rainfall over Ethiopia
July rainfall anomalyRainfall anomaly, June-July
Source: Ethiopian Meteorological Agency
Source: Chris Funk, using Ethiopian Agromet and unbiased RFE climatology
• Both appear to agree on the dryness across portions of the western and central regions.
no data below-average average above-average
7 Day
30 Day
Last Week This Week
Buuloburde, Somalia
Kisumu, Kenya
Vegetation Health Index
Source: NESDIS/STAR
Vegetation Conditions
NDVI anomaly
• Slightly improving conditions in eastern Sudan and western Ethiopia.
Last Week This Week
1200 Z 17 May 2011IR Satellite Imagery
GFS 7-day Verification
• GFS seems to capture the location, but over forecasts the rainfall amounts.
GFS 1-week Rainfall Forecast
