agclimate: web-based climate information & decision aid tools clyde w. fraisse climate extension...

AgClimate: Web-based Climate Information & Decision Aid Tools

Clyde W. FraisseClimate Extension Specialist

Agric. & Biol. Engineering – IFAS

University of Florida

SECC Extension Team

Fresh TomatoSouth FL

Climate Variability Impacts

Crop Yield (winter vegetables, corn, peanut, soybean, citrus)

Pasture Freezes Forest fires Hurricane activity

Freeze Event ENSO Phase

Dec 1894Feb 1899Dec 1934Jan 1940Dec 1962Jan 1977Jan 1981Jan 1982Dec 1983Jan 1985Dec 1989Jan 1997

NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralEl NiñoNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral

Applied Climate & Crop Modeling Research

Historic ENSO Phases 1949-2004

JMA

EN

SO I

ndex

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

VarietyPlanting Date

Plant PopulationSoils

So what?

How to “translate” this research and information into practical applications?

SECC Climate Extension Program

Decision Making in Agriculture

Climate Forecast

Strategic Decisions

Variety selection Planting Dates Acreage allocation Crop insurance

coverage Marketing Purchase inputs

Weather ForecastOperational decisions

Planting Spray Fertilize Irrigation Harvest

SECC Extension Main Goal

To develop a climate information system for the SE USA in which climate forecasts and information together with DSS for agriculture, forestry and water resource management are made available to reduce risks associated with climate variability.

Climate Forecasts

Decision-AidTools

ManagementAdaptations

CommodityOutlooks

AdditionalResources

StakeholderNeeds

Climate Risks

Socio-Economics

DiseasesPests

CropProduction

WaterManagement

Climate ExtensionProgram

Fraisse et al. 2005

Research on Understanding & Managing Climate-Related Risks

agclimate.orgInformation and tools to help agriculture and natural resource managers reduce the risk of seasonal climate variability

AgClimateTools

Dynamic tools(county level)

Climate Risk• Rainfall• Avg. Min/Max

Temperature

Yield Risk• Peanut• Potato• Tomato

Forecasts

Seasonal Outlooks (4/yr)

CountyRegional

Links toNationalInternational

ENSO,Hurricane andFreeze forecasts

Forecasts

Seasonal Outlooks (4/yr)

CountyRegional

Links toNational &International

ENSO,Hurricane andFreeze forecasts

2005 Hurricane Season Forecasts

2005 Season Predictions – August Updates

Named Storms HurricanesMajor

Hurricanes

Dr. Gray 20 (15) 10 (8) 6 (4)

NOAA 18-21 (12-15) 9-11 (7–9) 3-5 (3-5)

Long-term Average 10 6 2

Official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin: June 1 – November 30.

ForestryKeetch-Byram Drought IndexMonthly updates Jan-Jul

Crop ManagementDiscussion

Peanut and Tomato

• Land preparation• Varieties• Planting date• Pest Management & Diseases• Yield Quality

Pasture Management

BackgroundInformation

Future Forecast Products – Chilling Units

SECC Climate Extension

Developing climate information services to promote the competitiveness of agriculture and protect the natural resources in the Southeastern USA

Clyde [email protected]

Decision Making in Water Resources Management

Climate Forecast

Strategic Decisions

Weather ForecastOperational decisions

agclimate: web-based climate information & decision aid tools clyde w. fraisse climate extension...

Documents