AGENDA

THE GREAT FALLOUT REBALANCING THE DAYLIGHT ?

CHAPTER ONE CHAPTER THREECHAPTER TWO

AGENDA

THE GREAT FALLOUT

REBALANCING THE DAYLIGHT

CHAPTER TWO CHAPTER THREE

CHAPTER ONE

UNBELIEVABLE IMPACT OF COVID-19 TO ECONOMY

Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook Oct’20

Wuhan

Degree of Impact

Tourism

Manufacturing

Job Market

The Worst Economic Downturn with 9-12 Trillion $ Loss vs. Pre-Pandemic

130over countries lockdown

Rapid spread compared to SARS (2002) & MERS (2012)

CHAPTER ONE

ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ITS RECOVERY PATTERN

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Tom Yum

Kung Dot-com

crash

Early 1980s

recession

Early 1990s

recession

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1 9 8 0 1 9 8 4

W-ShapeDouble dip

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1 9 8 8 1 9 9 2

L-ShapeLong recovery

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 9 9 7 2 0 0 1

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2 0 0 0

V-ShapeQuick Recovery

U-ShapeStagnant before rise

Hamburger

SARS

MERS

-0.1%

The Virus

Recession

-4.4%

CHAPTER ONE

Source : IMF and Wall Street Journal

CHAPTER ONE

POTENTIAL SHAPES OF RECOVERY FROM COVID-19

•Sharp decline,

followed by rapid

recovery

• Stagnant,

recovery slower

than V-shaped

V L

≤ 1 YearDURATION :

Several years

DURATION :

V-SHAPED L-SHAPED

Source : IMF, Wall Street Journal and Brooking Institution

NIKE-SHAPED K-SHAPED

•Recovery longer

than V-shaped but

faster than L-shaped

• Unequal recovery

Richer

Poorer

DURATION :

1-2 years

DURATION :

1 year

AGENDA

REBALANCING

CHAPTER TWO

THE DAYLIGHT

CHAPTER THREE

THE GREAT FALLOUT

CHAPTER ONE

GLOBAL RESPONSES TO THE CRISIS

Industry and

People Response

FACTOR 2:Country ResponseFACTOR 1:

Virus Control ResponseFACTOR 3:

Key Factors To Determine The Shape Of Economy

CHAPTER TWO

Bigger Size of Monetary and Fiscal Policy to Cope with Crisis

FACTOR 1: COUNTRY RESPONSE

Monetary Policy

“Central banks cut rates to almost zero and

aggressively use quantitative easing (QE) program ”

0.25%

INTEREST RATE

0% 0% 3.85%

Balance Sheet

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

FED

ECB

,Trillion $

2009 2020

=

“The record stimulus package to alleviate

the economy impact ”

(close to 12% of global GDP)

The highest stimulus package over

11.7 $ Trillion

1xChinaeconomy

CHAPTER TWO

Source : IMF and Bloomberg

Fiscal Policy

U.S. CARES Act

FACTOR 2: INDUSTRY AND PEOPLE RESPONSE

Self-sufficiency with adaptability

Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20

Domestic Flight

2006 2010 2014 2018

“Concentrate more on high growth sector”

% Contribution to GDP

Manufacturing

Service

International Flight

China

Flight YoY Growth

“COVID-19 boosts digital adoption in various

aspect of business especially online platform”

Digital Platform

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

4.0

Global E-Commerce (Trillion USD)

0.7

Health Personal caresElectronics

Stronger sales during COVID-19 led by

CHAPTER TWO

Source : IMF, World Bank and FGE

CHAPTER TWO

FACTOR 3: VIRUS CONTROL RESPONSE

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

Taiwan

Thailand

China

India

U.S.

Number of Deaths by COVID-19

“Adoption of Digital healthcare technology”

The Lowest Death Rate Country

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Q1'18 Q3'18 Q1'19 Q3'19 Q1'20 Q3'20

V-Shaped Recovery for Taiwan

“The low impact from COVID-19 to the

Taiwan’s economy”

Taiwan’s GDP Growth YoY

Faster Virus Control, Faster Economic RecoverySource : Bloomberg

CHAPTER TWO

CHINA’S ECONOMY OUTLOOKKey Factors for Economic Recovery

2018 2019 2020

China’s GDP Growth YoY

+4.9%Q3’20

Key Economic Indicators (%)

Tourism

Manufacturing

Retail Sales

Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20

Dec-19 Jun-20

Dec-19 Jun-20

V-Shaped Recovery for China’s Economy on Effective Virus Control

Stimulus package

and Low interest rate

FACTOR 1:

Recovered retail and

manufacturing sector

FACTOR 2:

Effective virus control

FACTOR 3:

Source : Bloomberg

CHAPTER TWO

U.S. ECONOMY OUTLOOKKey Factors for Economic Recovery

-2.9%Q3’20

2018 2019 2020

U.S’s GDP Growth YoYKey Economic Indicators (%)

Retail Sales

Dec-19 Jun-20

Dec-19 Jun-20

Manufacturing

Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20

Nike-Shaped Recovery for U.S. Economy on Not Effective in Virus Control

Stimulus package

and easing monetary policy

FACTOR 1:

Strong retail

sales growth

FACTOR 2:

Record high virus infection

FACTOR 3:

Source : Bloomberg

AGENDA

THE DAYLIGHTCHAPTER THREE:

CHAPTER THREE

ECONOMIC RECOVERY SHAPE FOR 2022-2025

China

V-shaped

≈ 6%U.S.

Nike-shaped

≈ 2%

% Share of global economy

2 PLAYERS

vs. 1.0%(2018-21)

vs. 5.7%(2018-21)

L-shaped : 1-2%

Virus Control later than 2022

CHAPTER THREE

THE BRIGHT PROSPECT FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY

5.24.2 3.8 3.6 3.53.3 3.8 3.5

2.8

-4.4

Nike-shaped : 3-4%

Low Virus transmission by end 2022

World GDP Growth (% YoY)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

“Global stimulus policy and easing monetary policy with focus on growth sector”

Source : IMF

“IN THE MIDST OF EVERY CRISIS,

LIES GREAT OPPORTUNITY”

Albert Einstein