1. Pakistans Urban Challenge The Creative`City ModelHilton Root Andrew Crooks Ammar Malik

2. Presentation Outline The Urban Century Role of Creativity in Urban Development The Creative City Model The Next Steps 3. Percentage of Urban Population by Size, 1960Source: UN Stats 4. Percentage of Urban Population by Size, 1980Source: UN Stats 5. Percentage of Urban Population by Size, 2011Source: UN Stats 6. Percentage of Urban Population by Size, 2025Source: UN Stats 7. Pakistans Population: Urban vs. Rural 300 250 200Millions 150 10050 0 1951 1961 1972 19811990 2001 2010 2020 2030Source: UN-Habitat (2008)Rural Urban 8. Developing Country MegacitiesPopulation Growth Comparison 18 16 14 12CairoMillions 10 BeijingJakarta 8Delhi 6Karachi 4 2 019701980 1990 2000 2010 Source: United Nations 9. Why Karachi? A microcosm of Pakistan, representation of all ethnicities. Home to 7.5 - 10 percent of Pakistans entire population, 11thlargest city in the world (UN 2012) Produces 20% of national GDP, 25% of nationalrevenues, handles 95% of foreign trade, retains 45% ofemployment in large-scale manufacturing (ADB 2005) Pakistans financial and banking hub: hosts 40% of allfinancial activity and 50% of bank deposits (KSDP 2007) 10. Creativity & Urban Development 11. Insights from Literature Individual or Social? Creative ideas have novelty, usefulness and surprise(Simonton 2012) Richard Floridas (2002) Theory of Creative Class o Creative workforce associated with prosperity o The 3Ts: Technology; Tolerance & Talent Human Capital driving long-term economic growth(Barro 2001; Cohen and Soto 2007) o Creative Clusters in cities are formed by free flow of ideas (Andersson 1985) 12. New Urban Thinking Density fosters human interactions, the loci fordevelopment (Glaeser 2011) o Environmental Efficiency o Education as the most reliable predictor of urban growth o Successful cities attract the poor; they thrive on diversity Vibrant Urban Culture & Public Spaces (Landry 2000) o Cultural and physical amenities attract creative individuals Jacobs (1961) cities happen to be problems in organizedcomplexity, like the life sciences the whole is more than the sum of the parts (Simon 1962) Understanding the macro level from the individual level 13. Why use Agent-Based Models? 14. Simple Agent-Based ModelExample below demonstrates how traffic jams can formwithout any incident. Each car is an agent that follows asimple rule set: If theres a car close ahead, it slows down. If theres no car ahead, it speeds up. 15. The Creative City Model 16. Model Purpose An Urban Laboratory for asking what if questions and testingpolicy ideas. To Explain: o The relationship between land-use regulation and creativity. o When, where and how creative clusters emerge in cities. To Test Policy Scenarios: o What if land-use zones are altered in favor of mixed land-use? o What if urban mobility or transportation costs change? o What if income inequality across households improves? 17. The Creative City Model Scale City Agent Attributes Income Tolerance Neighborhood Education Context Karachi Land Use Zones Creative Values 18. Model Features and AttributesEnvironment Individual AgentsMed High LowCreativity LevelCreative ValueAssigned at startBased on frequency ofvisits by medium andWhen an agent is inspiredhigh creative agentsby partnering with a highcreative agent in a creativeOr based on creative- space, the agent can raise adensity levelRules and assumptions Interactions between agentsand the environment 19. Basic Model InterfaceInputs EnvironmentOutputs http://malik.gmu.edu/Creativity 20. Typical Model Runhttp://malik.gmu.edu/Creativity 21. Model Outputs 22. Verification ProcessSegregation ON Segregation OFF Segregation OFF Segregation ON OutputsMovement OFF Movement OFF Movement ONMovement ONParameters(BASE)Percent67 (+1)9 (+3)8 (+2)Highly CreativePercent6 8.5 (+2.5) 11 (+5) 9 (+3)Creative SpacePercent 3238 (+6) 39 (+7)35 (+3)University Edu. Average45,200 51,165 (+13%) 55,210 (+22%) 52,013 (+15%) Income (Rs.)Percent 4445 (+1) 46 (+2)45 (+1)Affording Rent 23. Status Quo Scenario3 Years 5 Years Key Outputs Today10 Years Later 20 Years LaterLater LaterPercent107 6 31Highly CreativeGini Coefficient0.67 0.660.69 0.720.75Percent1.8 3.7 64.54.8Creative SpacePercent503832 2115University Edu.Average 37,000 41,16545,200 55,01360,394 Income (Rs.)Percent464544 4345Affording Rent 24. Preliminary Findings Emergence of celebrities Path Dependency in Creative Cluster formation Tipping Points Neighborhood Effects or Externalities 25. The Next Steps Apply verified theoretical model to Karachi GIS Integration with spatial economic data Income & Rents distribution from real-world data Empirically grounded behavioral rules 26. Source: DemoBase Pakistan (http://egeoint.nrlssc.navy.mil/pakistan/) 27. Pakistans Urban Challenge The Creative City Model`