Agent Based SIRModeling

Mini Project

Dhirubhai Ambani Institute of Information and Communication Technology, DA-IICT

April 14, 2016

Group 1 Mini Project 1/10

Modeling Background

• Calves are born in the spring and weigh from 60-100 lb

• They reach a weight of 600 lb in 6-9 months on the farm.• Calves from many sources are brought to sale barns to be

sold as stockers where they gain weights uptil 900 lb.• Feedlots buy from the sale barns and fatten the cattle in

pens for 4-6 months till they reach weights of 1200-1400 lb,after which they are sent to the abattoir.

Group 1 Mini Project 2/10

Modeling Background

• Calves are born in the spring and weigh from 60-100 lb• They reach a weight of 600 lb in 6-9 months on the farm.

• Calves from many sources are brought to sale barns to besold as stockers where they gain weights uptil 900 lb.

• Feedlots buy from the sale barns and fatten the cattle inpens for 4-6 months till they reach weights of 1200-1400 lb,after which they are sent to the abattoir.

Group 1 Mini Project 2/10

Modeling Background

• Calves are born in the spring and weigh from 60-100 lb• They reach a weight of 600 lb in 6-9 months on the farm.• Calves from many sources are brought to sale barns to be

sold as stockers where they gain weights uptil 900 lb.

• Feedlots buy from the sale barns and fatten the cattle inpens for 4-6 months till they reach weights of 1200-1400 lb,after which they are sent to the abattoir.

Group 1 Mini Project 2/10

Modeling Background

• Calves are born in the spring and weigh from 60-100 lb• They reach a weight of 600 lb in 6-9 months on the farm.• Calves from many sources are brought to sale barns to be

sold as stockers where they gain weights uptil 900 lb.• Feedlots buy from the sale barns and fatten the cattle in

pens for 4-6 months till they reach weights of 1200-1400 lb,after which they are sent to the abattoir.

Group 1 Mini Project 2/10

Modeling Background

• Calves are born in the spring and weigh from 60-100 lb• They reach a weight of 600 lb in 6-9 months on the farm.• Calves from many sources are brought to sale barns to be

sold as stockers where they gain weights uptil 900 lb.• Feedlots buy from the sale barns and fatten the cattle in

pens for 4-6 months till they reach weights of 1200-1400 lb,after which they are sent to the abattoir.

Group 1 Mini Project 2/10

Problem Statement

• Pinkeye is a highly infectious disease afflicting cattle and ismost prevalent among breeding beef cattle females.

• It spreads through direct contact, indirect contact withcontaminated surfaces and insect vectors such as faceflies.

• Causes blindness within 72 hours if not treated and resultsin a loss of economic value in the market. Infected cattlealso gain weight at different rates than healthy ones.

• Antibiotics and steroids based treatment.

Group 1 Mini Project 3/10

Problem Statement

• Pinkeye is a highly infectious disease afflicting cattle and ismost prevalent among breeding beef cattle females.

• It spreads through direct contact, indirect contact withcontaminated surfaces and insect vectors such as faceflies.

• Causes blindness within 72 hours if not treated and resultsin a loss of economic value in the market. Infected cattlealso gain weight at different rates than healthy ones.

• Antibiotics and steroids based treatment.

Group 1 Mini Project 3/10

Problem Statement

• Pinkeye is a highly infectious disease afflicting cattle and ismost prevalent among breeding beef cattle females.

• It spreads through direct contact, indirect contact withcontaminated surfaces and insect vectors such as faceflies.

• Causes blindness within 72 hours if not treated and resultsin a loss of economic value in the market. Infected cattlealso gain weight at different rates than healthy ones.

• Antibiotics and steroids based treatment.

Group 1 Mini Project 3/10

Problem Statement

• Pinkeye is a highly infectious disease afflicting cattle and ismost prevalent among breeding beef cattle females.

• It spreads through direct contact, indirect contact withcontaminated surfaces and insect vectors such as faceflies.

• Causes blindness within 72 hours if not treated and resultsin a loss of economic value in the market. Infected cattlealso gain weight at different rates than healthy ones.

• Antibiotics and steroids based treatment.

Group 1 Mini Project 3/10

Modeling Assumptions

• Birthing cows and new births are not considered.• Feed is always available and cattle does not have to move

too far to graze.• Cattle move at random and do not tend to congregate other

than when moving to a different location.• Cattle moves on its own on a one way road to the sale barn.• For each trip to the sale barn the cow is in the facility for at

most 2 days.• Disease is only spread through contact and not vectors.• Recovered cattle cannot become susceptible again.• No immunity or death before reaching the abattoir.• All cattle gain weight at the same rate.

Group 1 Mini Project 4/10

Parameters

Input• Probability that a particular section of pasture on a farm

contains a bovine.• Probability that a bovine will become infected when close

to another infected bovine.• Time step.

Output• Total number of cattle.• Number of susceptible, infected and recovered cattle at

each time step.• Cummulative total number of infected cattle at each time

step.

Group 1 Mini Project 5/10

Design

• Environment

• 6 farms, 1 sale barn, 1 stocker, 1 feedlot, 1 abattoir.• One-way road that goes to the east and one-way road that

goes to the west.

• Each component of the environment is composed of a gridof cells with each cell being an agent.

• The cattle are also represented as agents.• The simulation proceeds with time steps of 0.25 day.• During each time step each bovine gains weight and if it

reaches the threshold weight it moves to the next location.• The cattle may also become infected or recovered during

each time step.

Group 1 Mini Project 6/10

Design

• Environment• 6 farms, 1 sale barn, 1 stocker, 1 feedlot, 1 abattoir.

• One-way road that goes to the east and one-way road thatgoes to the west.

• Each component of the environment is composed of a gridof cells with each cell being an agent.

• The cattle are also represented as agents.• The simulation proceeds with time steps of 0.25 day.• During each time step each bovine gains weight and if it

reaches the threshold weight it moves to the next location.• The cattle may also become infected or recovered during

each time step.

Group 1 Mini Project 6/10

Design

• Environment• 6 farms, 1 sale barn, 1 stocker, 1 feedlot, 1 abattoir.• One-way road that goes to the east and one-way road that

goes to the west.

• Each component of the environment is composed of a gridof cells with each cell being an agent.

• The cattle are also represented as agents.• The simulation proceeds with time steps of 0.25 day.• During each time step each bovine gains weight and if it

reaches the threshold weight it moves to the next location.• The cattle may also become infected or recovered during

each time step.

Group 1 Mini Project 6/10

Design

• Environment• 6 farms, 1 sale barn, 1 stocker, 1 feedlot, 1 abattoir.• One-way road that goes to the east and one-way road that

goes to the west.

• Each component of the environment is composed of a gridof cells with each cell being an agent.

• The cattle are also represented as agents.• The simulation proceeds with time steps of 0.25 day.• During each time step each bovine gains weight and if it

reaches the threshold weight it moves to the next location.• The cattle may also become infected or recovered during

each time step.

Group 1 Mini Project 6/10

Design

• Environment• 6 farms, 1 sale barn, 1 stocker, 1 feedlot, 1 abattoir.• One-way road that goes to the east and one-way road that

goes to the west.

• Each component of the environment is composed of a gridof cells with each cell being an agent.

• The cattle are also represented as agents.

• The simulation proceeds with time steps of 0.25 day.• During each time step each bovine gains weight and if it

reaches the threshold weight it moves to the next location.• The cattle may also become infected or recovered during

each time step.

Group 1 Mini Project 6/10

Design

• Environment• 6 farms, 1 sale barn, 1 stocker, 1 feedlot, 1 abattoir.• One-way road that goes to the east and one-way road that

goes to the west.

• Each component of the environment is composed of a gridof cells with each cell being an agent.

• The cattle are also represented as agents.• The simulation proceeds with time steps of 0.25 day.

• During each time step each bovine gains weight and if itreaches the threshold weight it moves to the next location.

• The cattle may also become infected or recovered duringeach time step.

Group 1 Mini Project 6/10

Design

• Environment• 6 farms, 1 sale barn, 1 stocker, 1 feedlot, 1 abattoir.• One-way road that goes to the east and one-way road that

goes to the west.

• Each component of the environment is composed of a gridof cells with each cell being an agent.

• The cattle are also represented as agents.• The simulation proceeds with time steps of 0.25 day.• During each time step each bovine gains weight and if it

reaches the threshold weight it moves to the next location.

• The cattle may also become infected or recovered duringeach time step.

Group 1 Mini Project 6/10

Design

• Environment• 6 farms, 1 sale barn, 1 stocker, 1 feedlot, 1 abattoir.• One-way road that goes to the east and one-way road that

goes to the west.

• Each component of the environment is composed of a gridof cells with each cell being an agent.

• The cattle are also represented as agents.• The simulation proceeds with time steps of 0.25 day.• During each time step each bovine gains weight and if it

reaches the threshold weight it moves to the next location.• The cattle may also become infected or recovered during

each time step.

Group 1 Mini Project 6/10

Design (Cont.)

Group 1 Mini Project 7/10

Parameters for simulation

1 Probability of existence of a cow at a cell = 0.052 Height of the grid = 1263 Width of the grid = 1014 Number of Farms = 65 Time step = 0.25 days (i.e. 6 hours)6 Period of infection = 100 days (subject to vary)7 Probability of infection spread from a neighbouring cow =

0.2

Group 1 Mini Project 8/10

EpidemicFor Infection period = 100 days

Group 1 Mini Project 9/10

Fast RecoveryFor Infection period = 40 days

Group 1 Mini Project 10/10