agile estimation
TRANSCRIPT
Unluckily all these positive assertions are contrary to that very experience, which is pleaded for them, nor have we any idea of self, after the manner it is here explain’d. For from what impression cou’d this idea be deriv’d? This question ’tis impossible to answer without a manifest contradiction and absurdity; and yet ’tis a question, which must necessarily be answer’d, if we wou’d have the idea of self pass for clear and intelligible. It must be some one impression, that gives rise to every real idea. But self or person is not any one impression, but that to which our several impressions and ideas are suppos’d to have a reference. If any impression gives rise to the idea of self, that impression must continue invariably the same, thro’ the whole course of our lives; since self is suppos’d to exist after that manner. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea.
Wikipedia
by ~jjjohn~ - http://flic.kr/p/4CYJT1
"Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value
that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or
unstable."
"Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value
that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or
unstable."
"Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value
that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or
unstable."
Wikipedia
by ~jjjohn~ - http://flic.kr/p/4CYJT1
[A Guestimate] is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete
information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or
conjecture.
[A Guestimate] is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete
information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or
conjecture.
[A Guestimate] is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete
information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or
conjecture.
Illusion of invulnerability.
Collective rationalisation.
Belief in inherent morality.
Stereotyped views of out-groups. Direct pressure on dissenters
Self-censorship Illusion of unanimity
Self-appointed ‘mindguards’
Symptoms
Unluckily all these positive assertions are contrary to that very experience, which is pleaded for them, nor have we any idea of self, after the manner it is here explain’d. For from what impression cou’d this idea be deriv’d? This question ’tis impossible to answer without a manifest contradiction and absurdity; and yet ’tis a question, which must necessarily be answer’d, if we wou’d have the idea of self pass for clear and intelligible. It must be some one impression, that gives rise to every real idea. But self or person is not any one impression, but that to which our several impressions and ideas are suppos’d to have a reference. If any impression gives rise to the idea of self, that impression must continue invariably the same, thro’ the whole course of our lives; since self is suppos’d to exist after that manner. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea.
Unluckily all these positive assertions are contrary to that very experience, which is pleaded for them, nor have we any idea of self, after the manner it is here explain’d. For from what impression cou’d this idea be deriv’d? This question ’tis impossible to answer without a manifest contradiction and absurdity; and yet ’tis a question, which must necessarily be answer’d, if we wou’d have the idea of self pass for clear and intelligible. It must be some one impression, that gives rise to every real idea. But self or person is not any one impression, but that to which our several impressions and ideas are suppos’d to have a reference. If any impression gives rise to the idea of self, that impression must continue invariably the same, thro’ the whole course of our lives; since self is suppos’d to exist after that manner. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea.
263
Vierordt’s Law (1968): !Retrospectively, "short" intervals of time tend to be overestimated, and "long" intervals of time tend to be underestimated. 1818 - 1884
Vierordt’s Law (1968): !Retrospectively, "short" intervals of time tend to be overestimated, and "long" intervals of time tend to be underestimated.
(Buehler & Griffin, 2003; Buehler, Griffin, & MacDonald, 1997; Buehler, Griffin, & Ross, 1994; Bueh ler, Messervey, & Griffin, 2005; Byram, 1997; Connolly & Dean, 1997; FrancisSmythe & Robertson, 1999; Grif fin & Buehler, 1999; Jorgensen & Sjoberg, 2001; Josephs & Hahn, 1995; Koneçni & Ebbesen, 1976; König, 2005; Koole & Van’t Spijker, 2000; Kruger & Evans, 2004; MolokkenOstvold & Jorgensen, 2005; NewbyClark, Ross, Buehler, Koehler, & Griffin, 2000; Taylor, Pham, Rivkin, & Armor, 1998)
Tshirt sizes
Goat designed by Joseph Gray from The Noun Project
Cycle TimeHow long does it take for one story
to get from here to here.
To do In Progress Testing Done
In 8 days, we will be here
Wikipedia
by ~jjjohn~ - http://flic.kr/p/4CYJT1
"Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value
that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or
unstable."
5813
82
1385
8
15
Sprint 1 successfulPriority order
Sprint 2
Sprint 3
Sprint 4
Sprint 5
Sprint 6
Velocity: 13
5813
82
1385
8
15
Sprint 1 successfulPriority order
Sprint 2 successful
Sprint 3
Sprint 4
Sprint 5
Velocity: 13
Velocity: 14
Start of 8 sprint project
Average 15pts
Best 20pts
Worst 10pts
Almost definitely
Probably
Maybe
Not a chance
Total No. of Points: 300
“I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”
General Dwight. D. Eisenhower
As a ... I need ... So that ...
3
As a ... I need ... So that ...
2
As a ... I need ... So that ...
8
ENOUGH!Estimated Velocity: 13
As a ... I need ... So that ...
3
As a ... I need ... So that ...
2
As a ... I need ... So that ...
8
1 4 2 3
1 4 9 3
1 6 2 7
46
6
Total Hours For Sprint 1: 144
As a ... I need ... So that ...
3
6
74
4
4 2
MATHS FUN
Estimated No. Sprints x Estimated hours for sprint 1
= Total Hours For Project23 x 144 = 3312Total Hours For Project / Min Sprint Hours
= Minimum Number of Sprints3312 / 130 = 25 sprintsTotal Hours For Project / Max Sprint Hours
= Maximum Number of Sprints3312 / 170 = 19 sprints
Total story points / Estimated Velocity = Estimated No. Sprints
300 / 13 = 23