04/10/2023 1© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

Agile Planning Training Part 1/3

By Harlan Beverly

04/10/2023 2

Projects Fail BEFORE Launch

• 37%?• 90%?• In my experience, it is between 50-

75% fail BEFORE LAUNCH!– Never launch!

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 3

Goals of Companies1. Generate Profits

1. Generate Revenue

2. Reduce Costs

3. Reduce Expenses (difference?)1. Maximize Utilization (Effeciency)

2. Please Shareholders1. Stock Price

2. Growth Potential

3. Ship “the right products” On-Time

4. Maximize ‘every product’s’ potential.

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 4

Conflicting Goals

• Shipping On Time– Vs

• Maximum Efficiency

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 5

Class Experiment

• Paper Processing Plant– 1 person = folds each page as well.

• Pass Papers in a line from one to another… keep passing!– Now Here comes a colored paper

which is super urgent… how fast can we get the colored page done?

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 6

Another Experiment

• Limit Work-in-Progress Inventory to 2…– Now how fast?

• But aren’t people idle????

• Isn’t this bad?

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 7

The Lost Revenue Fallacy

• If the pink paper were worth 1000x as much as a white paper… what is the effect on revenue.

• What does this tell us about “maximizing efficiency”?

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 8

On-Time Projects vs. Late Projects

• Costs of Late:– Overages on budget.– Lateness of later products.– Loss of Revenue during time when

product could have been out to when it actually launches.• Permanent loss?

– Perhaps too late, and missed window (canceled order/lost to competitor)

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 9

Padding Fallacy

• Why not “ensure” that every project is never late? – Simply add a huge padding to the

end!!!– Or????

• What about “right sized” padding?– Murphy?

• Student Syndrome© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 10

Estimation Fallacy

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 11

Early Finish Fallacy

• Delays Accumulate• Gains Don’t!

– Notice, if task c finishes early… person e will:» Not necessarily hear about it and realize he can store» Feel he has even more time now (student syndrome)» Still be busy with some other project!

04/10/2023 12

Multitasking Fallacy• Priority issues?• Switching Costs

– Penalty for ‘forgetting’ where you were– Cost of something changed since you were gone….– Cost of changes, because you didn’t finish yet!

• Total ‘actual time’, ignoring those issues…

• See Joel on Software:– http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000022.html

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 13

Parkinson’s Law

• “work expands to fill the allocated time.”• No Early Finish Bonus!• Strong Disincentives for Early Finish:

– Lowered estimates later– Lower pay– More work to be done… than if they had “dogged it”…– BUT MURPHY COULD STILL STRIKE AFTER THEY

FINALLY START (since they dog early!)

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 © 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly 14

Changes &Feature/Scope Creep

• The longer a project ‘isn’t done’ the more chance of ‘changes’ and feature/scope creep.– Changes = wasted time– Feature creep = expanding

requirements

04/10/2023 15

Unclear Requirements / Definition-of-Done

• Beginning without knowing exactly what is required = never being done.

• Not defining done = never being done.

• Not being done = not finishing on time!

• SIMPLE LOGIC!

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 16

Traditional Project Planning: Waterfall Method• Has a Tendency to be 100%+ Late,

and 100%+ Over-budget.– Fall off the edge of a cliff.

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 17

Critical Path

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_path_method• Simply calculate the path of dependencies

with the longest total time duration.

04/10/2023 18

Gantt Chart (aka network diagram)

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gantt_chart• Basically, this is the output of MS Project.• Gantt charts illustrate the start and finish dates of the terminal

elements and summary elements of a project. Terminal elements and summary elements comprise thework breakdown structure of the project. Some Gantt charts also show the dependency (i.e. precedence network) relationships between activities. Gantt charts can be used to show current schedule status using percent-complete shadings and a vertical "TODAY" line. (Although this is usually BULLSHIT!)

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly

04/10/2023 19

Microsoft Project/Gantt….

• Resources Considered?– Will those resources be available when you need

them?

• Buffer? Where?• Estimates at 50%? 90%? Where?• Days??? REALLY! ?? Why not Hours???• “tracking progress”… really?

– Cost of tracking?– Is it true/real?

© 2013 - Harlan T. Beverly