aging population power point monday
TRANSCRIPT
Australia’s Labour Market and its Challenges
Ivan NevilleLabour Supply and Skills Branch
Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations20 March 2009
Labour Market Conditions
• Labour market conditions remain relatively strong:
- Unemployment rate: 5.2%
- Employment rate: 72.9%
- Participation rate: 65.5%- Educational Attainment
—Year 12 or higher: 67.3% (compared with 65.9% in May 1998)
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey 12 month average January
2009, Education and Work Survey May 2008 CAT. No. 6227
Groups at High Risk of Unemployment
• Teenage Full-Time Unemployment Rate: 23.9%
- Teenage full-time unemployment to population ratio: 4.8%
• Indigenous Unemployment Rate: 14.0%- Indigenous Employment Rate: 50.3%- Australian Employment Rate: 72.4%
• Some regions have high unemployment: - Regional Unemployment Rate for QLD: 1.4%-8.5%
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey
Unemployment Rate by Selected Education Qualifications
Source: ABS Education and Work Survey May 2008 CAT. No. 6227
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Year 10 or below
Year 12
Certificate III/IV
Bachelor Degree
Weekly Earnings by Selected Education Qualifications
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Year 10 or below
Year 12
Certificate III/IV
Bachelor Degree
$2000 or more
$1000-$1999
$1-$999
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2006 CAT No. 2914 (not include negative income, nil income, not stated and not applicable)
Job Growth by Industry 5 years to November 2008 (‘000s)
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (DEEWR trend data).
-8.0
9.6
11.8
12.2
23.2
33.2
41.4
45.7
47.9
54.0
74.8
85.3
99.0
100.1
165.1
191.0
230.1
-20 30 80 130 180 230 280
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Manufacturing
Communication Services
Wholesale Trade
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
Personal and Other Services
Government Administration and Defence
Cultural and Recreational Services
Finance and Insurance
Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants
Mining
Transport and Storage
Education
Retail Trade
Property and Business Services
Health and Community Services
Construction
Job Growth for Skilled & Low Skilled Labour
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (DEEWR trend data).
Managers
Professionals
Tradepersons
Elementary workers
Labourers
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Nov-98 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08
Labour Market Challenges
• Ongoing structural challenges:– Skills shortages– Ageing workforce– Slower growth in labour supply
• Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
Professions/Trades in Shortage
Health Professions• Registered (Nurse, Midwife
and Mental Health Nurse)• Dentist and Dental Specialist• Pharmacist (Hospital and
Retail)• Occupational Therapist• Optometrist• Physiotherapist• Speech Pathologist• Podiatrist• Medical Diagnostic
Radiographer• Sonographer
Automotive Trade Persons• Motor Mechanic• Automotive Electrician• Panel Beater• Vehicle Painter
Electrical Trade Persons• Refrigeration Mechanic • Electronic Equipment Tradesperson
Source: DEEWR – SERA Survey
Recruitment Success by Skill of Occupation
Source: DEEWR – Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences.
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Total
Lower Skilled Occupations
Medium Skilled Occupations
Higher Skilled Occupations
Proportion of reported vacancies
Vacancies unfilled Vacancies filled with jobseekers who required development
Reasons Vacancies Difficult to Fill(Selected Reason)
Source: DEEWR – Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences
Impact of Global Financial Crisis
• Forecast slowing in economic growth– GDP growth in Australia is predicted to slow to 1% in
the 2008-09 financial year and 0.75% in 2009-10
• Employment is expected to contract in 2009 and remain weak in 2010 – As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to rise
to 5.5% by June 2009 and 7% by June 2010
Latest forecasts from the Treasury (February 2009)
The Global Financial Crisis
Some industries, regions and individuals will be disproportionately affected:
• Finance and Insurance and Property and Business Services industries most affected:
- Construction and Retail Trade also adversely affected
• In the 1990s recession, the greatest increase in unemployment occurred in regions which were most disadvantaged.
• People with the least skills and experience are most vulnerable: - Young people, people with low qualifications, recent migrants and people in casual employment
Ageing Workforce• The Australian workforce is getting older:
– Almost 2 out of every 5 workers are aged 45 years or over
– Almost half of the workforce in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; Education; and Health and Community Services are aged 45 years or over
– The median age of the workforce in 2006 was 39 years
• Impact of an ageing population include:– Greater job and career opportunities for people of
all ages– Mature age workers increasingly being valued by
employers
Source: 2006 Census of Population and Housing, DEEWR, Workforce Tomorrow
Ageing Population 1971 to 2051
Source: ABS Population Estimates and Projections
Projected Labour Force2000 to 2050
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Mill
ions
1. Standard
3. Zero migration
Source: Australian Centre of Population Research
Number of occupations in shortage and unemployment rate, Australia, 1988 to 2007;
Proportion of Mature Age Workers in Selected Skill Shortage Occupations
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (DEEWR trend data).
25.2
33.6
25.9
22.7
23.6
22.2
21
15.8
18.5
16.8
25
15.6
21.1
20.4
18.1
13
10.5
12.4
9.4
9.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Dentists
Registered Nurses
General Medical Practitioners
Pharmacists
Civil Engineers
All Occupations
Electricians
Carpenters and Joiners
Accountants
Motor Mechanics
%
45 to 54
55 and over
Projected Job Growth by Industry 5 years to 2013-14 ('000s)
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (DEEWR trend data); DEEWR Projections.
-44.8
-13.5
-2.7
-1.5
5.2
14.1
16.2
21.2
21.3
34.4
34.4
36.5
40.4
63.9
79.4
90.1
164.9
-60 -10 40 90 140 190
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Mining
Finance and Insurance
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
Government Administration and Defence
Personal and Other Services
Cultural and Recreational Services
Communication Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Construction
Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants
Transport and Storage
Property and Business Services
Education
Retail Trade
Health and Community Services
Projected Job Growth by Skill 5 years to 2012-13
Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (DEEWR trend data); DEEWR Projections.
42.4%
27.5%
12.8%
17.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Higher Education Skilled VET Other VET Low Skill
Share of Job Growth (%)
Jobs with good prospects - examples
• Accountants• Bookkeepers• Bricklayers• Cabinetmakers• Chefs and Cooks• Customer Service Managers• Dentists• Finance Managers• Financial Dealers/ Brokers• Fitness Instructors• General/Landscape Gardeners• General Medical Practitioners• Hairdressers
• Human Resource Professionals• Legal Professionals• Motor Mechanics• Occupational Therapists• Office Assistants/Managers• Pharmacists• Physiotherapists• Policy Analysts• Project/Program Administrators• Receptionists• Sales Assistants• Security Officers/Guards• Waiters
Summary and Issues
• Shift towards services sector and skilled jobs
• Short-term softening in labour market expected
• Longer-term slowing in labour supply growth – Ageing population
Useful Labour Market Information
• Australian Jobs Publication www.workplace.gov.au/australianjobs
• Job prospects of occupations www.jobsearch.gov.au/joboutlook
• Industry employment prospects at www.skillsinfo.gov.au
• State and Territory Skill Shortage Lists at www.workplace.gov.au/skillsindemand
• JobJuice helps young Australians who are looking for work and thinking about their future http://www.jobjuice.gov.au/
Thank You