Climate vulnerability of

the main agroecosystems of Hungary

Ferenc Horváth, MTA ÖK

Nándor Fodor, László Pásztor, MTA ATK

Gábor Illés, NAIK ERTI

András Molnár, ATK

National Adaptation Geoinformation System WS - Budapest, 7-8 November, 2016.

AGRATéR: EXTENSION OF NAGIS

TO THE AGRI-SECTOR

AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS, MODELS

4M

(MTA ATK)

Ecophysiology

daily meteorology

Biome-BGC

(MTA ÖK)

Ecophysiology

daily meteorology

WOOD PROD.

(ERTI)

statistical

monthly meteorol.

CROP

LANDS

4.500.000 ha

maize

& sunflower (!)

wheat,

barly & rape

- - - - - -

GRASS

LANDS

1.155.000 ha

- - -Natural

grasslands- - -

NATURAL

FORESTS

< 1.000.000 ha

- - -

Hardwood,

softwood broad-

leaved forests

Beech, Oak,

Turkey oak

forests

CULTIVATED

FORESTS

> 1.000.000 ha

- - -Pine

plantations

Black locust,

poplar and pine

AGRÁR

ÖKOSZISZTÉMÁK

AGRO

ECOSYSTEMS

AGRÁR

SZEKTOR

AGRICULTURE

SECTOR

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

KITETTSÉG: KLÍMAVÁLTOZÁS

CLIMATIC EXPOSURE

ÉRZÉKENYSÉG

SENSITIVITY

SÉRÜLÉKENYSÉG

VULNERABILITY

ALKALMAZKODÓ KÉPESSÉG

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

VÁRHATÓ HATÁS

POTENTIAL IMPACT

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

Reference period

CC grid 1961-1990

Climate scenarios

ALADIN 2021-2050

ALADIN 2071-2100

RegCM 2021-2050

RegCM 2071-2100

CLIMATIC EXPOSURE

INDICATORS of CLIMATE CHANGE

• Forestry Aridity Index (FAI)

• Pálfai aszályindex …

• Erdészeti klímaöv változás …

1961-1990

2021-2050

2071-2100

ALADIN RegCM

ALADIN RegCM

2021-2050

2071-2100

FAI

aszályindex

Forestry

Aridity Index

CLIMATIC EXPOSURE

KLÍMAVÁLTOZÁS

KITETTSÉGI INDIKÁTOROK

CLIMATE EXPOSURE

INDICATORS

. . . . .

• Légköri CO2 koncentráció

Atmospheric CO2

POTENTIAL IMPACT

CROPLAND ECOSYSTEMS

CHANGE OF AVERAGE YIELDS

Harvest in Autumn VS Harvest in Summer

2021-2050

MAIZE

2071-2100

MAIZE

WHEAT

2021-2050

WHEAT

2071-2100

POTENTIAL IMPACT

GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEMS

CHANGE of PRODUCTIVITY

Grasslands compared to 1961-1990

2021-2050

ALADIN

2071-2100

RegCM

2021-2050

2071-2100

ALADIN RegCM

POTENTIAL IMPACT ON FORESTS

SITE PRODUCTIVITY SCALE (FTO)

1961-1990

1991-2010

GO

OD

>

> >

W

OR

SE

SITE condition is matter … soil types

POTENTIAL IMPACT ON FORESTS

SITE PRODUCTIVITY SCALE (FTO)

SITE CONDITIONS for OAKS

1961-1990

2021-2050

VULNERABILITY

MANAGED FORESTS

SITE CONDITIONS

TREE ADMIXTURES

AGE CLASSES

VULNERABILITY

VULNERABILITY

CROPLANDS

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY =

(3×AK1 + 1×AK2 + 2×AK3 + 0,5×AK4 + 4×AK5) / 10,5

VULNERABILITY

INPUT

INUNDATION

INCOME

QUALIFICATIONS

IRRIGATION

POT. IMPACT

VULNERABILITY

NATURAL GRASSLANDS + GRAZING

ADAPTIVE

SCENARIO

LESS

ADAPTIVE

SCENARIOALADIN

2021-2050

overgrazed

less used

Natura 2000 draw wells diversity

vulnerability

MODELS CAN TAKE A LOT, BUT …

Sustainability of agriculture

. . . Change of cultivars, technology?

Natural vegetation (marsh/grassland, …)

. . . How much resilient to CLC shift?

. . . . . . to CLC extrem events?

. . . How does respond to CLC pressures?

>>> adaptive succession?

>>> damage & regeneration?

>>> … biological invasion?

SINCE THEN …

www.agrater.hu

Thanks for your attention!