agri commodity reports for the week (21st -25th march - 2011)
TRANSCRIPT
8/7/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (21st -25th March - 2011)
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AGRI MA
>>
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21st Mar - 26th Mar 2011
“ S P I C E S S U R G E S O N E X T E N D E D B U Y I N G ”
W e e k l y R e p o r t
AG RI MA RK ET
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Daily Chart
JEERA (APR )
JEERA RISES ON EXTENDED BUYINGW e e k l y R e p o r t
The Jeera extended the gains on active buying last
week. Futures started the week on positive note on
fresh buying. However, prices took sharp corrections
on profit selling as overall trend has not changed at
spot yet. Nonetheless, prices gain resumed the
upside during the end and prices ended on positive
note. The Jeera April futures are projected to
continue the gains on extended fresh buying next
week. Reports of stockiest buying amid some export
inquires may support the prices. However, rising
arrivals might limit the gains later in the week. Daily
arrivals at spot market of Unjha were around
23,000-24,000 bags (Each bag= 55Kg.) Rising
arrivals at spot market are keeping the prices under
pressure. As per trade sources, export demand
might pick up in coming days as overall stock of
Jeera is declining on international front. As per data
released by Spices board, Jeera exports during April-
January 2010-11 stood around 26,000 tons down
by 36% compared to same period last year. Though
overall production forecast is down by 10-25% Y/Y
still poor export demand from gulf countries are
likely to weigh on prices in short term. According to
derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open
interest all are rising. Market is attracting larger
numbers of traders willing to open positions from
the long side and hold them. Traders are more
confident that prices will continue to climb in favor
of a working long.
Last week Jeera did our target of 17000
above the level of 16650 and even closed
above it. Last week Jeera remained bullish
throughout the week and was not
sustaining at lower levels. For the next
week Jeera has resistance at 17500 and
support at 16900.
Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one
should use the strategy of sell on higher
levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains
below the level of 15900 then we can
expect the level of 15600, and if it sustains
above 16420 then we can see the level of
16700.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Ÿ Fresh buyingŸ Strong demand
REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
MARKET OVERVIEW
STRATEGY
Script Levels
R3 18100
R2 17010
R1 16530
PP 15910
S1 15430
S2 15820
S3 13720
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Daily Chart
GUARSEED (APR )
GUARSEED RISES ON STRONG BUYINGW e e k l y R e p o r t
The Guar seed and gum futures rallied to hit 4%
intraday upper limit on Thursday on strong buying
interest last week. Limited supply of the produce at
major spot markets and strong demand from end-
users added bullish sentiment to the market. Market
moved higher on expectation of further removal in
additional margin. A rally in Crude oil prices also
gave underlying support to the Guar market as gum
is used in oil exploration. The Guar seed and Guar
gum futures are forecast to trade on a positive note
next week on follow through buying. Traders and
investors are buying futures anticipating revival in
demand in the near-term. Limited supply of the
produce in major spot markets is likely to push up
the futures prices. The Guar seed requirement from
the exporters and the millers has almost met for the
current year. As per the APEDA sources Guar gum
exports during the April-November 2010 surged by
139% to `1,446 crore from `603 crore in the
previous fiscal. Spot markets are likely to show
positive trend on active buying interest from
stockists and millers. Derivative analysis (rise in price,
volume and open interest) is suggesting a positive
trend for the next week.
Last week Guarseed did our target of 2810
above the level of 2760 and even closed
above it. Last week Guarseed was in a
bullish trend and even closed near to its
weekly high. For the next week Guarseed
has resistance at 3020 and support at
2840.
For next week in Guar seed traders should
go for buying at lower levels strategy, if
Guar seed sustains above the level of 3020
we can see the level of 3090, and below
2840 it can touch the level of 2775.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Ÿ Strong buyingŸ Increased demand
REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
MARKET OVERVIEW
STRATEGY
Script Levels
R3 3441
R2 3146
R1 3044
PP 2851
S1 2749
S2 2556
S3 2261
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Daily Chart
SOYABEAN (APR )
SOYBEAN SLIGHTLY FALL ON SELLING PRESSUREW e e k l y R e p o r t
NCDEX April Soybean futures fell sharply in the
beginning of the week due to huge losses in
overseas market. NCDEX April Soybean prices
opened at Rs 2306 a quintal and touched a low of Rs
2270.50/quintal, then bounced back in tandem
with overseas market as short covering and Soybean
futures at e-CBOT also provided support to the bulls
an hour before closing the market, There is news
that China's Soybean acreage may fall 11% this year
as compared to last year due to higher sowing
a c r e a g e o f c o t t o n t h i s y e a r .
USDA's Monthly supply & demand Report: The US
Department of Agriculture revised 2010-11 global
Soybean output estimate to 258.4 million tonnes,
up by 2.3 million tonnes from its February estimateof 256.10 million tonnes. Brazil's soy crop output at
a record 70.0 million tonnes , up by 1.5 mln tn from
the February estimate, due to timely rains in the
producing regions of the country. It has raised
output estimate for China as well. Argentina's soy
output has been kept unchanged at 49.5 million
tonnes. Estimate of Soybean carryover stock in the
US was also kept unchanged at 3.82 million tonnes.
The USDA raised global 2010-11 oilseeds
production estimate by 2.4 million tonnes from the
February projection to 444.2 million tonnes.
Oilseeds carryover stocks are now seen at 58.33
million tonnes, marginally up from 58.21 mln tn in
February.
Last week Soybean did our target of 2280
below the level of 2330 but did not
sustained below it and we saw good
buying coming at lower levels in the later
part of the week. For the next week
Soybean has resistance at 2440 and
support at 2270.
Soybean is moving in a downward channel
on charts and one should look for selling
opportunities at higher levels, if Soybean
sustains below the level of 2270 we can
see the level of 2210, and on the upside if it
sustains above the level of 2440 we can see
Soybean at 2485 level.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Ÿ Selling pressureŸ Weak overseas market
REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
MARKET OVERVIEW
STRATEGY
Script Levels
R3 2616
R2 2472
R1 2421
PP 2328
S1 2277
S2 2184
S3 2040
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Daily Chart
CHANA (APR )
CHANA ENDS HIGHER ON STRONG BUYINGW e e k l y R e p o r t
The Chana futures staged a strong rally last week
rebounding from its previous weakness on
emergence of fresh buying, Positive trend in the spot
market gave underlying support to the futures
market. With the increasing inflow of the produce,
stockists have started procuring and stocking Chana
at lower levels. Removal of 2% sales tax by
Rajasthan government also gave support to the
market. The rise in volume and open interest is
indicating strong buying interest. The Chana futures
are forecast to trade on a positive note on follow
through buying. Improvement in demand from
traders and stockists at lower level is likely to render
support to the futures market. Stockists and traders
are procuring Chana from the spot market as theprices are at very comfortable level and markets are
witnessing inflow of good quality produce. Full
swing arrivals from Rajasthan are expected across
the spot markets from April. The exemption of sales
tax of 2% levied on Chana in Rajasthan might
further attract physical market players in the near
term. The kantewala variety arrivals from across M.P
are in full swing and quality which is of good quality
also.
Last week Chana was in a very tight range
and was not sustaining at lower levels and
we saw buying coming at lower levels, the
price is facing support at 2490 and is not
able to sustain below the psychological
level of 2500. For the next week Chana has
resistance at 2580 and support at 2490.
Overall trend of Chana is bearish and one
should go for selling at higher levels
strategy in it. For the coming week if
Chana sustains below 2490 level we can
see it at 2450 and above 2580 we can
expect the level of 2620.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Ÿ Fresh buyingŸ Improvement in demand
REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
MARKET OVERVIEW
STRATEGY
Script Levels
R3 2701
R2 2616
R1 2569
PP 2531
S1 2484
S2 2246
S3 2361
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WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE
SymbolExch-ange
ExpiryDate
CommodityName
Price UnitPrevious
CloseOpen LowHigh Close
Qty.Traded
NetOpen
Interest
WeeklyTurnOver
(Rs. in Lakhs)*
* Turnover Till Friday
NCDEXJEERAUNJHA 20-APR-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 16048 15952 1572016575 16041 57960 -7 17502 83,710.76
TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-APR-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 10470 10304 986010600 9900 25275 -570 7580 23,218.14
GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 2706 2715 27022953 2942 1433700 236 165300 337,167.29
GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 7624 7720 76408500 8460 116025 25495836 81,401.82
CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-APR-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2520 2522 24942558 2528 438020 8 77340 97,222.33
SoybeanSYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 RS/QUINTAL 2363.5 2349.5 2270.52379 2370 487500 6.5 205950 105,549.67
SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 614.9 611.65 595621 620.7 747790 5.8 90460 425,769.01
RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/20KGS 2751 2743 26652772 2766 346350 15 63340 86,208.01
COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-APR-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1178 1178 11531235 1234 323120 56 83160 29,981.09
GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JUL- 11 Gur RS/40KGS 996 994.5 994.51017 1006 19880 10 8870 4,468.24
POTATO NCDEX Potato RS/QUINTAL 622.6 625 532.8625 540 146130 -82.6 16845 7,338.64
KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-APR-11 Kapas RS./20KG 1163.6 1155 11451194.5 1188.6 18098 25 2457 37,260.57
WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-APR-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1179.4 1177 11631179 1166.6 7770 -12.8 9330 800.61
MENTHA OIL MCX 31-MAR-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1157.5 1162 1151.91305.8 1298.3 18967 140.8 6344 83529.91CARDAMOM MCX 15- APR -11 Cardamom RS/KG 1108.7 1115 1076.71153 1137.2 6355 28.5 1578 6792.21
PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-APR-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 22821 22795 2228623738 23478 42226 657 7504 89,493.93
Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change
NCDEX JEERA 16041 -0.04
NCDEX PEPPER 23478 2.88
NCDEX TURMERIC 9900 -5.44
NCDEX GUARSEED 2942 8.72
NCDEX GUARGUM 8460 10.97
NCDEX CHANA 2528 0.32
NCDEX SOYBEAN 2370 0.28
NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 620.7 0.94
NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2766 0.55
NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1234 4.75
NCDEX GUR 1006 1.00
NCDEX POTATO 540 -13.27
NCDEX KAPAS 1188.6 2.15
NCDEX WHEAT 1166.6 -1.09
NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1298.3 12.16
NCDEX CARDAMOM 1137.2 2.57
W e e k l y R e p o r t
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20-APR-11
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Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
Weekly Gainers
MENTHA OIL 31-MAR-11 1298.3 12.16
GUARGUM 20-APR-11 8460 10.97
Weekly Losers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
POTATO 20-APR-11 540 -13.27
WHEAT 20-APR-11 1166.6 -1.09
TURMERIC 20-APR-11 9900 -5.44
JEERA (APR) 17822.00 16967.00 16504.00 16112.00 15649.00 15257.00 14402.00
PEPPER (APR) 26071.33 24619.33 24048.67 23167.33 22596.67 21715.33 20263.33
TURMERIC (APR) 11600.00 10860.00 10380.00 10120.00 9640.00 9380.00 8640.00
GUARSEED (APR) 3367.67 3116.67 3029.33 2865.67 2778.33 2614.67 2363.67
GUARSGUM (APR) 9920.00 9060.00 8760.00 8200.00 7900.00 7340.00 6480.00
CHANA (APR) 2654.67 2590.67 2559.33 2526.67 2495.33 2462.67 2398.67
SOYBEAN (APR) 2556.83 2448.33 2409.17 2339.83 2300.67 2231.33 2122.83
REFINED SOYA OIL (APR) 664.23 638.23 629.47 612.23 603.47 586.23 560.23
MUSTARD (APR) 2948.33 2841.33 2803.67 2734.33 2696.67 2627.33 2520.33
COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (APR) 1371.33 1289.33 1261.67 1207.33 1179.67 1125.33 1043.33
GUR (JUL) 1050.83 1028.33 1017.17 1005.83 994.67 983.33 960.83
POTATO (APR) 750.33 658.13 599.07 565.93 506.87 473.73 381.53KAPAS (APR) 1275.03 1225.53 1207.07 1176.03 1157.57 1126.53 1077.03
MENTHA OIL (MAR) 1559.80 1405.90 1352.10 1252.00 1198.20 1098.10 944.20
CARDAMOM (APR) 1274.90 1198.60 1167.90 1122.30 1091.60 1046.00 969.70
WEEKLY MARKET UPDATEW e e k l y R e p o r t
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GUARSEED 20-APR-11 2942 8.72