agri update 1stadvanceestimates2016-17
TRANSCRIPT
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Agri-Update – 1st Advance Estimate (2016-17)
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Kharif crop production at record high as acreage
surpasses average of last five years
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Prepared by RiteshKumar Sahu Analyst - Agri Commodities [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6165
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Agri-Update – 1st Advance Estimate (2016-17)
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
First Advance estimate
Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC) has
released the First Advance Estimates for production of
major kharif crops for 2016-17 and targets for all major
crops on September 22, 2016.
According to the estimate, country is likely to harvest
record foodgrain, pulses and oilseeds crops in the 2016-17
kharif season, as rainfall during the monsoon months have
been well distributed compared to last year. Last two
years have been drought years witnessed by the country
owing to El Nino phenomenon.
As per the government data, total sowing in the ongoing
kharif season so far has surpassed both last year’s acreage
and the normal area — the average of total sown area in
the previous five years. Sowing of rice, pulses, coarse
cereals and oilseeds have exceeded last year’s acreage by
significant margins, while sugar, cotton and jute are lower.
The total sown area as on September 23, 2016 stands at
1,067.53 lakh hectares compared to 1,030.89 lakh
hectares last year same time and total normal area of
1,062.50 lakh hectares.
The weather during planting and growing season of kharif
i.e. June-September 2016 was mostly favorable for all the
kharif crops except above normal rains recorded in Central
Kharif Crops 2016-17 * 2015-16 ** % chg
Rice 93.88 91.31 2.8
Maize 19.30 15.24 26.6
Coarse Cereals 32.45 27.20 19.3
Tur 4.29 2.46 74.4
Total Pulses 8.70 5.54 57.0
Total Food Grains 135.03 124.01 8.9
Groundnut 6.50 5.34 21.7
Soybean 14.20 8.60 65.1
Total Oilseeds 23.40 16.60 41.0
Cotton # 32.12 30.15 6.5
Sugarcane 305.20 352.10 (13.3)
1st Adv Estimates* Vs 4th Advance Estimates**
(Million tonnes)
Source: Ministry of Agriculture # Million Bales
and North-west India during first week of July.
In 2016-17, country witnessed unprecedented increase in
pulses acreage by almost 30 per cent while the yield factor
will see jump in oilseed crop in the country.
Thus, the production of kharif pulses estimated to increase
by 57 per cent compared to last year production estimates
while 19 per cent increase for in coarse grains. The
production of kharif oilseeds too estimated to increase by
41 per cent.
Monsoon near perfect in 2016-17
In the Jun-Sep monsoon season so far, IMD data shows that
the country has received 820.5 mm of weighted-average
rainfall, 4% below the normal of 853.9 mm for the period.
Near-normal monsoon rains have raised country’s kharif
crops acreage by 3.6 per cent on year to 106.75 mln
according to latest data from the agriculture ministry.
The agricultural production and sowing is almost entirely
dependent on monsoon rains, as nearly two-thirds of the
agricultural land not having the irrigation facilities. In the
current monsoon season, only 8 subdivisions of the country
receive deficient rains while 28 have received normal-to-
excess rains.
This year's monsoon rains are crucial for the agriculture in
the country, as the two previous years 2015 and 2014-were
hit by drought.
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Weekly Rainfall Departure - INDIA - Monsoon 2016
Country Above Normal Below NormalSource: IMD
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Agri-Update – 1st Advance Estimate (2016-17)
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Targets will be Achieved
For 2016-17, the target for kharif oilseed deviates only
slightly due to reports of wet weather in the oilseed
growing areas in the state of Madhya Pradesh and
Maharashtra. However, targets of kharif Pulses and kharif
coarse cereals will be achieved due to higher area and
good weather conditions.
Foodgrains
In the first advance estimate for the 2016-17, the total
kharif foodgrains, which includes rice, coarse cereals and
pulses, estimated to increase by 8.9 % compared to last
year production at 135.03 million tonnes (mt).
Rice is the most important kharif crop, which account for
almost 70 % of the kharif food grain output. Government
forecasts kharif rice at 93.88 mt higher by 2.8 % compared
to last year production. As per latest kharif area report
published by agricultural department, rice acreage across
the country rose 2.6 % on year to 38.2 million hectares as
on 23 September 2016. The acreage rose due to good rains
this year.
However, the acreage for rice this year is lower than the
normal area for the period. The normal area for the entire
Kharif Crops 2016-17 Target %chg
Oilseeds 23.40 23.50 (0.4)
Pulses 8.70 7.25 20.0
Coarse Cereals 32.45 32.50 0.00
Food Grains 135.03 132.75 1.7
Production (in Million tonnes)
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1st
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Kharif Food Grains Production in India (million tonnes)
Source: Agriculture Department
based on the average of last five years, is 39.27 million
hectares.
In the current year, the acreage is higher in the states of
Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab Haryana and
Jharkhand. Uttar Pradesh recorded the largest acreage at
59.6 lakh Hectares (lh), up 0.6 % compared to last year
while West Bengal recorded 9.8 % increase in area to 42.3
lh.
Coarse Cereals
Production of coarse cereals during kharif is estimated at
32.45 mt, higher by 19.3 % compared to last year
production. Last year, the production was 27.2 mt. Kharif
coarse cereals include – Maize, Jowar, Bajara, Ragi, small
millets. Among coarse cereals, Maize is the highest
producing cereals account for about 60 % production by
volume.
The production of Maize estimated to rise by 26.6 % to
19.3 mt during this kharif compared to last years’
production of 15.24 mt. Maize acreage in the country is up
9 % at 83.2 lh according to latest data released by the
agriculture ministry.
The top maize sowing states in the current kharif season
are Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Acreage in
Karnataka up 22 % on year at 12.6 lh while Madhya
Pradesh area is higher by 15 % at 12.6 lh. The normal
acreage for the period is 73.5 lh. This is based on the
average of data for sowing over the last five years. The
acreage this year is higher than last year due to
widespread rains in sowing states.
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Kharif Coarse cereals Production in India (million tonnes)
Source: Agriculture Department
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Agri-Update – 1st Advance Estimate (2016-17)
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Pulses
According to first advance estimate for 2016-17,
Country’s kharif pulses output during the current season
is likely to reach an all-time high of 8.7 mt, almost 57 %
more than last year. The Centre’s target for pulses
production in the coming rabi (winter) season is 13.5 mt .
This could also mean a record pulses crop in 2016-17.
The acreage as been higher for pulses as Cabinet
Committee on Economic Affairs hike Minimum Support
Price (MSP) for kharif pulses. The MSP of moong and urad
hike by Rs. 150 to Rs. 4,800 per quintal and Rs. 4,575
respectively while for tur it raised by Rs. 200 to Rs. 4,625
per quintal. Pulses consist of tur, gram, urad and moong
where tur, urad and moong are predominantly a kharif
crop while gram is mainly sown in rabi. Urad and Moong
also sown in rabi season in some parts of country.
In its 1st advance estimate, production of most important
grown pulses in kharif season, Tur (Pigeon pea, red
gram), is estimated to increase by whopping 74.4 % or
18.3 lt to 42.9 lt 2016-17 compared to last year
production figures.
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est
Kharif Pulses Production in India (million tonnes)
Source: Agriculture Department
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Tur Production in India (million tonnes)
Source: Agriculture Department
The production is pegged higher compared to previous
year production mainly due to higher acreage and
favorable weather conditions during sowing and growing
season. India's tur acreage stood at 52.4 lh as on 16th Sep,
2016, up 47% from last year as per data released by the
agriculture ministry. The acreage is also higher than the
normal area for the corresponding week, based on
average of five years, which is 40 lh.
This year, farmers have been inclined towards sowing tur
and other pulses due to increase in MSP by the
government coupled with forecast of good monsoon
rains. The largest tur growing state is Maharashtra where
the acreage is up 48 % at 15.3 lh on year, while in
Karnataka, it was 11.8 lh, against 579,000 hectares a year
ago. In another major growing state, Madhya Pradesh,
acreage is up 21.1 % on year at 690,000 hectares.
Oilseeds
In the first advance estimate 2016-17, kharif Oilseeds
output is forecsted at 23.4 mt, which is higher by 6.8 mt
or 40 % compared to last year’s production of 16.6 mt.
Kharif oilseeds comprised of Soybean, Groundnut, Castor
seed, sesamum, Niger Seed and Sunflower.
As per the latest advance estimates for 2016-17
production of major oilseeds – Soybean and Groundnut
estimated to jump by about 58.5 % and 21.7 %
respectively. The production of soybean estimated at
136.15 lt compared to last years’ production of 85.9 lt
while the production of groundnut estimated at 64.98 lt
during the kharif, compared to 53.4 lt in 2016-16.
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1st
Kharif Oilseed Production in India (million tonnes)
Source: Agriculture Department
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Agri-Update – 1st Advance Estimate (2016-17)
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Cotton production
As per the first Advance Estimates for 2016-17, cotton
production is estimated higher at 321 lakh bales (1 bale = 170
kg), up 6.5 % or 19.5 lakh bales compared to last year
production. The production is pegged higher this year
compared to 4th estimate of last year despite lower acreage
in the government estimates due to expectation of higher
yield and lower pest incidences recorded in the country.
Cotton acreage in the country is lower this year as farmers
get lower prices cotton last year and due to fear of pest
attacks which will affect their profits. As per the latest
sowing reports from the government, cotton area across the
country in kharif 2016-17 is about 11.6 % lower at 102.55 lh
against 115.98 lh last year. The average cotton acreage for
the entire season based on data for the last five years is
120.3 lh.
The top cotton growing states in the country are
Maharashtra, Gujarat and Telangana. India's top cotton
producer, Gujarat, crop was sown across 23.8 lh, down 13.8
% from a year ago, while in Maharashtra, the acreage was at
38.1 lh, slightly lower than 38.2 lh last year.
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Major Kharif Oilseeds Production in India (lakh tonnes)
Kharif Groundnut Soybean
Source: Agriculture Department
275 285 295 305 315 325 335 345 355
365
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1st
Cotton Production in India (lakh bales)
Source: Agriculture Department
In Madhya Pradesh, the area under the cotton crop was at
6 lh higher by 9.5 % on year, while in Haryana and
Karnataka, it was down 14.3 % and 10.4 % respectively.
Similarly, acreage in Andhra and Punjab also lower this
year by 30 % and 43 % respectively.
Sugarcane production
Sugarcane is an important cash crop in India, mainly grown
in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
Sugar cane acreage in the country is mainly depends on
the monsoon rains.
According the first Advance Estimates for 2016-17
released by the Ministry of Agriculture, sugarcane
production is expected to decline to 305.2 mt in 2016-17,
as against 352.2 mt last year, a decline of 13.3 percent.
The agriculture ministry has set sugarcane production
target at 355 mt, which may not be met, due to lower
area.
The decline in production is due to intense drought
conditions in the sugarcane producing states of
Maharashtra and Karnataka since last two years.
The largest cane-growing state, Uttar Pradesh, planted
cane in 21.8 lh, up 6.2 % on year, while acreage in
countries largest sugar producer, Maharashtra, down 35.9
% at 6,33,000 hectares. Similarly, acreage in Karnataka was
down 20.7 % on year at 399,000 hectares, while in
Tamilnadu, area under sugarcane was down 8.8%.at
268,000 ha.
300.0
310.0
320.0
330.0
340.0
350.0
360.0
370.0
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4th
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1st
Sugarcane Production in India (million tonnes)
Source: Agriculture Department