agricultural drought index and monitoring on national scale · 2011-09-29 · north china •...
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Agricultural drought index and monitoring on national scale
LU HouquanNational Meteorological Center, CMA
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Contents• Agricultural drought disasters in China• Agricultural drought indices
--Precipitation anomalies --Soil moisture--Remote sensing drought index--Crop Water Deficit Index--Integrated Drought Index
• Integrated agricultural drought monitoring
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19501954195819621966197019741978198219861990199419982002
year
Percentage(%)
The area of cropland damaged by drought was on the range from 40% to 80%,occupying that caused by weather disasters(Data from the National Statistic Bureau)
Part 1: Agricultural drought disasters in China
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Agricultural drought with seasonal and regional feature in China
Due to:• Several climate types (uneven distribution of
precipitation on spatial and temporal, large variability)
• Various agriculture styles in different regions (crop varieties, cropping system, water requirement for various crops)
• Different water supply conditions for agricultural crops
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Seasonal agricultural drought• Spring drought: impacting on winter wheat and other
crops sowing in northern China, and impacting on rice transplanting in southern China
• Early summer drought: impacting on some crops sowing and autumn-matured crops in northern China
• Midsummer drought: impacting on rice in southern China• Autumn drought: impacting on winter wheat sowing in
North China• Winter drought: impacting on over-winter crops in South
China
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Part 2: Agricultural drought indices
The main factors related with agricultural drought
• Climate (evaportranspiration, precipitation)
• Soil (type, moisture)
• Crops (species, stage of development)
• Irrigation capacity (facilities , water resource)
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--Precipitation anomalies (PA)
Pa is percentage of precipitation anomalies(%); is climatic normal of precipitation (mm) of the 30 days ,P is precipitation of 30 days (mm)
• Advantage: observable, denoting storage of water for agriculture, especially for rainfed farming
• Disadvantage: can’t reflect water consumption and water demand of crops
Agricultural drought index
%100
PPPPa
P
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Agricultural drought index-- Relative soil moisture (RSM)
Rw is relative soil moisture(%);W is soil moisture on weight percentage(%),fc is field capacity(%)
• Advantages : measurable and simulated, expressing how much available water in soil for crops
• Disadvantage: with a poor representativeness on spatial, can not be use to paddy field
%100cfwRw
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Agricultural drought index--Crop Water Deficit Index (CWDI)
• CWDIi is crop water deficit index of 10 days, ETa is actual evapotranspiration of 10 days, P and I is precipitation and irrigation of 10 days, ai is weight coefficient
• Advantages: to judge if precipitation and irrigation could meet the water demand of crops or not
• Disadvantage: unmeasured, can’t express other factors influence on water consumption and with many coefficients
a
ai ET
IPETCWDI
n
iii CDWIaCDWI
1
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Crop water requirement
ETa= Kc·ETo
ETa = crop water consumption (evapotranspiration)Kc = crop coefficientETo = reference crop evapotranspiration
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• FAO Penmen-Monteith Equation for ETo
Rn = net radiation at crop surfaceG = soil heat fluxT = mean daily air temperature at 2 m heightU2 = wind speed at 2 m heightes - ea = saturation vapour pressure deficit∆ = slope vapour pressureγ= psychrometric constant
)34.01(
)(273
900)(408.0
2
2
U
eeUT
GRET
asn
o
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--Remote sensing drought indices
Integrated by Thermal Inertia method, Crop Water Stress Index ,Temperature and Vegetation Drought Index
• Advantages: observable, continuously on spatial, reflecting status of soil moisture and crops response to water supply
• Disadvantage: impacted by cloudy and vegetations on ground, data source unstable
n
iii wfDRG
1
Agricultural drought index
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--Integrated Drought Index
• For various regions and cloud status, precipitation anomalies, soil moisture, CWDI and remote sensing indices would be given different weighting.
Agricultural drought index
n
iii DIfIDI
1
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Agro-climatic zoning of China
LAI
Kc
CNDI weight
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Remote Sensing
Precipitation anomalies
Crops water deficit
Soil moisture
Integrated drought index
In Soil –plant-atmosphere continuum , overall agricultural drought monitoring
Part 3: Integrated agricultural drought monitoring
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Flow chart
Soil moisture Index
Crop water deficitIndex
Remote SensingDrought Index
Dynamic soil moisture model
Dynamic CWDIDrought model
Remote SensingDrought model
Soil moistureSoil textureCrop stage
Mete. dataCrop stage
NOAA、EOS/MODIS、FY-1、FY-2C
Integrated agricultural drought model on region scale
Agricultural drought monitoring system on GIS
Agricultural drought monitoring operation
Products of Agricultural drought monitoring
Mete. data
Precipitationanomalies
Moving preci.anomalies
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On the GIS, integrated agricultural drought monitoring system
Surface agricultural drought monitoring system
Remote sensing monitoring system
Integrated monitoring system
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Case on 1st decade Aug.2006
Remote Sensing
Soil moisture
Integrated monitoring
Crop water deficit
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Soil moisture simulation
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Remote Sensing
Soil moisture Crop water deficit
Integrated monitoring
Precipitation anomalies
Case on 1st decade Jan. 2009
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Agricultural drought monitor and prediction on national scale product released by NMC
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