agriculture environment unitagriculture environment unit kyoto protocol enters into force on feb 16,...
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AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
Kyoto Protocol enters into force on Feb 16, 2005
Countries celebrating
40
140 countries have ratified
USA and Australia not yet
China, India and Brazil exempted
Nepal wins US $ 25 millions
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON FOOD SECURITY OF NEPAL
By:
Kishore Sherchan
(A scenario based analysis)
Area Production and Yield of Rice in Nepal
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
Year
Pro
du
ctio
n (
M t
on
)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Yie
ld (
kg
/ha)
Area
Production
Y ield
AREA PRODUCTION AND YIELD OF WHEAT IN NEPAL
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
YEAR
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N (
MT
)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
YIE
LD
(k
g\h
a)
Area
Production
Y ield
AREA PRODUCTION AND YIELD OF MAIZE IN NEPAL
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
YEAR
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N (
MT
)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000Y
IEL
D (
kg
/ha)
Area
Production
Y ield
AREA PRODUCTION AND YIELD OF POTATO IN NEPAL
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
YEAR
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N (
MT
)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
YIE
LD
(k
g/h
a)
Area
Production
Y ield
Area, production and yield Rice: Wheat:
Maize: Potato:
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
Climate Change Impact
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
VARIATION IN ENSO AND RICE YIELD IN NEPAL
Impact of cold wave on winter crop yields in the Terai of Nepal, 1997/98.
Year Potato Toria Sarson Rayo Lentil Chickpea
1987/88 539 1320
1988/89 703 563 728
1989/90 25.54 503 844 819 709
1990/91 19.72 570 912
1991/92 22.28 949
1992/93 17.36
1993/94 22.13 712 785 601 1044
1994/95 23.76 718 524 548
1995/96 17.21 760 636 565
1996/97 22.63 815 803 887 959 922
Mean 21.33 747 569 733 807 999
1997/98 15.39 474 505 513 504 619
% Reduction 27.8 36.5 11.2 30.0 37.6 38.0
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
Methodology: Model DSSAT Ver. 3.5 EXCEL ARCVIEW
Data Average of 10 to 30 years of daily weather data (Tmax, Tmin, Srad and Rain) from 30-40 locations. Soil data of Nepal available from LRMP 1986 and
NARC. Crop management data from NARC Agricultural statistics from MOAC and CBS.
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
Zoning (3 x 5)
Three agro-ecological zonings (Terai, Hill and Mountain).
Five development regions.
Climate Scenario (9)
Ambient
2CO2 : 580ppm
Temperature : 580ppm + 1oC, +2 oC, +4 oC
Rain : + 20%
Crop yield : Actual and Potential
Model StructureAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
specification of codes for genotype, soil & weather Optional sections depending on experiment type & model capability Performance Data Files Output Files Depending on Option Settings and Settings and Simulation Applications
EXP.LST
FILEX Experiment Details File Cultiar Code Weather Station Soil Number
FILEC cultivar Data
FILEW weather Data File
WTH.LST SOL.SLT
FILES Soil Data File
FILEP Replicate Data
by plot
FILET Average
Time Course Data
FILEA Average
Summary Data
FILED Replicate Data
by Date
CROP MODELS
OVERVIEW SUMMARY GROWTH CARBON WATER NITROGEN PHOSPHOR PEST ECONOMICS
AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONING OF NEPAL
Rice Terai (Actual)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m a
mb
ien
t
Actual 580 ppm Actual 580 ppm+1T Actual 580 ppm+2T Actual 580 ppm+4T
Actual 580 ppm+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Rice:
Rice Terai (Potential)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Potential 580 ppm Potential 580 ppm+1T Potential 580 ppm+2T Potential 580 ppm+4T
Potential 580 ppm+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Rice:
Rice Hill (Actual)
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
hn
age
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Actual 580 ppm Actual 580 ppm+1T Actual 580 ppm+2T Actual 580 ppm+4T
Actual 580 ppm+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Rice:
Rice Hill (Potential)
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Potential 580 ppm Potential 580 ppm+1T Potential 580 ppm+2T Potential 580 ppm+4T
Potential 580 ppm+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Rice:
Rice Mountain (Actual)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Actual 580 ppm Actual 580 ppm+1T Actual 580 ppm+2T Actual 580 ppm+4T
Actual 580 ppm+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Rice:
Rice Mountain (Potential)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Potential 580 ppm Potential 580 ppm+1T Potential 580 ppm+2T Potential 580 ppm+4T
Potential 580 ppm+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Rice:
Wheat Terai (Actual)
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Actual 580 ppm Actual 580 ppm+1T Actual 580 ppm+2T Actual 580 ppm+4T
Actual 580 ppm+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Wheat:
Wheat Terai (Potential)
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Potential 580 ppm Potential 580 ppm+1T Potential 580 ppm+2T Potential 580 ppm+4T
Potential 580 ppm+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Wheat:
Wheat Hill (Actual)
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Actual 580 ppm Actual 580 ppm+1T Actual 580 ppm+2T Actual 580 ppm+4T
Actual 580 ppm+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Wheat:
Wheat Hill (Potential)
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Potential 580 ppm Potential 580 ppm+1T Potential 580 ppm+2T Potential 580 ppm+4T
Potential 580 ppm+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Wheat:
Wheat Mountain (Actual)
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Actual 580 ppm Actual 580 ppm+1T Actual 580 ppm+2T Actual 580 ppm+4T
Actual 580 ppm+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Wheat:
Wheat Mountain (Potential)
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Potential 580 ppm Potential 580 ppm+1T Potential 580 ppm+2T Potential 580 ppm+4T
Potential 580 ppm+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Wheat:
Maize Terai (Actual)
-40.00
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Actual 580 ppm Actual 580 ppm+1T Actual 580 ppm+2T Actual 580 ppm+4T
Actual 580 ppm+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Maize:
Maize Terai (Potential)
-40.00
-35.00
-30.00
-25.00
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Potential 580 ppm Potential 580 ppm+1T Potential 580 ppm+2T Potential 580 ppm+4T
Potential 580 ppm+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Maize:
Maize Hill (Actual)
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Actual 580 ppm Actual 580 ppm+1T Actual 580 ppm+2T Actual 580 ppm+4T
Actual 580 ppm+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Maize:
Maize Hill (Potential)
-25.00
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Potential 580 ppm Potential 580 ppm+1T Potential 580 ppm+2T Potential 580 ppm+4T
Potential 580 ppm+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Maize:
Maize Mountain (Actual)
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Actual 580 ppm Actual 580 ppm+1T Actual 580 ppm+2T Actual 580 ppm+4T
Actual 580 ppm+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Maize:
Maize Mountain (Potential)
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western
Development Regions
% C
han
ge
fro
m A
mb
ien
t
Potential 580 ppm Potential 580 ppm+1T Potential 580 ppm+2T Potential 580 ppm+4T
Potential 580 ppm+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+4T+1.2R
Maize:
Pokhara Ricey = -0.0967x + 2783.6
R2 = 0.0152
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600
Total Seasonal Rainfall (cm)
Gra
in Y
ield
(k
g d
m/h
a)
Pokhara Wheaty = 9.2081x + 158.84
R2 = 0.3624
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Total Seasonal Rainfall (cm)
Gra
in Y
ield
(k
g d
m/h
a)
Chambas Rice y = 0.8138x + 1043.1R2 = 0.2203
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Total Seasonal Rainfall (cm)
Gra
in Y
ield
(k
g d
m/h
a)
Chambas Wheaty = 6.2133x + 1181.9
R2 = 0.1435
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 50 100 150 200 250
Total Seasonal Rainfall (cm)
Gra
in Y
ield
(k
g d
m/h
a)
Rainfall Variability and Yield
Rice Wheat
Baglung Ricey = 2.5738x + 1301
R2 = 0.2304
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300
Total Seasonal Rainfall (cm)
Gra
in Y
ield
(cm
)
Baglung Wheaty = 0.6961x + 1059.8
R2 = 0.0137
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Total Seasonal Rainfall (cm)
Gra
in Y
ield
(k
g d
m/h
a)
Lumle Ricey = -0.01 47x + 2680.5
R2 = 0.0006
0
500
1 000
1 500
2000
2500
3000
3500
3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000
T otal Seas onal R ai nf al l (c m)
Lumle Wheat y = 11. 277x + 555. 48
R2 = 0. 4724
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
100 200 300 400 500 600
T ot al S eason al R ain f all ( cm)
Rice Wheat
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
Socio-Economics
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
Scenario
1. Normal (Business as usual)
2. APP
3. Climate change (by 2075)
Indicators Projection by year
2001 2010 2020 2030 2050 2060 2075
Population 23155 27969 33550 39685 54205 62642 76611
Food production (‘000 t)
Normal scenario 8839 10065 11645 13491 18180 21148 26602
APP scenario 8839 12997 18486 - - - -
Climatic change scenario
8839 10046 11596 13399 17941 20791 25986
Edible food availability('000t)
Normal scenario 5802 6657 7766 9069 12409 14540 18484
APP scenario 5802 8584 12335 - - - -
Climatic change scenario
5802 6640 7722 8986 12194 14221 17937
2001 2010 2020 2030 2050 2060 2075Per capita food availability (K-calorie/day)
Normal scenario 2369 2250 2188 2160 2164 2194 2275 APP scenario 2369 2901 3475 - - - - Climatic change scenario
2369 2244 2176 2140 2126 2146 2207
Per capita calorie reqd. (K-calorie/day)
2130 2130 2130 2130 2130 2130 2130
Food sufficiency (%) Normal scenario 111 106 103 101 102 103 107 APP scenario 111 136 163 - - - - Climatic change scenario
111 105 102 100 99 99 102
a. Food Production
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2001 2010 2020 2030 2050 2060 2075
Year
Fo
od
pro
d. (
00
0 t
)
Normal APP Cli. Ch
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
Food Sufficiency (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2001 2010 2020 2030 2050 2060 2075
Year
Foo
d s
uff
i. (%
)
Normal APP Cli. Ch
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
Impact of GHGs on Agriculture
1. With doubling of CO2, productivity of C3 crops particularly rice, soybean, millets and tropical C3 grasses will likely to increase with adoption of more heat tolerant varieties.
2. Simultaneous increase of temperature as a result of doubling of CO2, temperate crops such as wheat, barley, potato, lentil, mustard and temperate grasses will likely to be adversely affected and may need effective adaptation measures.
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
3. With the increase of CO2, productivity of C4 crops like maize, sugarcane, sorghum and C4 tropical grasses will be little increased but temperature will have more negative and rainfall will have variable effects.
4. Climate change will have impact on the extinction of biodiversity species and shift in habitat is likely to occur.
5. With the uniform rise of rainfall will have positive impact on overall agriculture but skewed rise (extreme event) will have negative impact on soil nutrient loss due to flood damage and erosion, and will have negative impact on overall agriculture.
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
6. With the increased use of chemical fertilizer, N2O emission will likely to increase.
7. If APP target is achieved, there will be significant surplus of food production. There will be marginal surplus under normal scenario. Food production will barely meet under climate change scenario.
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
Adaptation Strategies
1. Resource conservation Soil management through such as minimum tillage in the rice-wheat system should be developed. Surface seeding and bed planting in the rice can reduce carbon and water loss (by 10-25 %) as well as the cost of production and thus save large amount of carbon emissions.
2. Development of genetically adaptive varieties Breeding strategies that can incorporate stress attributes such as heat and drought stresses should be adopted. Rice and wheat varieties that can do better under rainfed and heat stress condition would reverse the effect of the process of global warming.
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
3. Hybrid crop program Model prediction has indicated that there will be a severe negative effect on maize yield. For instance, hybrid maize that can improve yield at least by 50% will upset the negative effect of climate change.
4. Crop diversification programCrop diversification including multiple and mixed cropping system should be promoted. This will give better insurance to avert the risk of crop failure and diversify income sources and conserve natural resources. e.g. horticultural plantation and other cash crops.
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
5. Manage the methane emission from rice field
Rice is the most important crop. Minimizing methane nitrous oxide emission in rice field through efficient use of fertilizer such as sulfur coated urea, slow release fertilizer and with alternate flooding drying and rainfed rice culture would help to reduce the methane emission.
6. Manage the livestock productionImproving ruminant's digestion through better feeding to minimize methane emission from the livestock. This also demands the discarding of unproductive livestock population.In the highland strategic breeding program between yak and cow should be adopted which will have better adaptation to global warming.
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
7. Promotion of biogas as a sourceBiogas has been considered an efficient alternative technology for the rural area to supplement the energy and for environment protection. In overall the biogas is a save technology to replace fuel wood and mitigate the global warming. This should be promoted at the rural level.
8. Institutional strengthening Given the topographical variation, climatic zoning should be demarcated and adaptation strategy should be applied. There should be a coordinated effort to the refinement of climatological analysis and implementation of early warning weather prediction system. A strong base on the climatic variability and agriculture should be built in the FYP.
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
Conclusion1. Doubling of CO2 will have more of positive
impact on major crops but adversely affected by the simultaneous rise of temperature particularly in the warmer environment and C4
crops.
2. Mountain environment is more favourable than the tropical flat lands to reverse the impact of climate change, but subject to very much micro-climatic condition due to varied topography. Tropical crops likely to move upwards due to likely increase in global temperature.
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT
3. Present level of marginal surplus will continue to decline and the country may face difficulties to attain agriculture sufficiency.
4. Technological innovation will be required to bridge the productivity gap between the actual and the potential. Use of adaptive crop varieties, improved seeds including hybrids, Efficient use of fertilizer and irrigation and crop diversification will reverse the likely impact of climate change.
AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT
UNIT Thank You
Rising CO2 Experiment on Rice and Wheat at NARC