AGRION Wind and Solar in Latin America Discussion

Outline

• Recent Trends and Resource Potential for wind and solar in Latin America

• Policy drivers and policy landscape• Challenges going forward

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

MW

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Latin America Installed Wind Power Capacity `97-`10

Other S. & C. AmericaArgentinaCosta RicaMexicoBrazil

Recent Trends: lots of momentum for wind power

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011

Installed Wind Capacity: Yearly Growth

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Latin AmericaGermanyUSIndiaChina

Recent Trends: lots of momentum for wind power

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011

Recent Trends: room for more development of wind capacity

Source: GWEC 2010 Global Wind 2010 Report

Installed Solar Power Capacity, 1996-2010

2000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

MW

GermanySpainJapanItalyUSMexicoAll Latin America

Recent Trends: weak momentum for solar

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011, EPIA Report September 2010

Installed Solar Power Capacity, 1996-2010

200

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

MW

Germany

Spain

Japan

Italy

US

Mexico

All Latin America

Recent Trends: weak momentum for solar

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011, EPIA Report September 2010

Installed Solar Power Capacity, 1996-2010

200

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

MW

Germany

Spain

Japan

Italy

US

Mexico

All Latin America

Recent Trends: weak momentum for solar

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011, EPIA Report September 2010

Installed Solar Power Capacity, 1996-2010

200

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

MW

GermanySpainJapanItalyUSMexicoAll Latin America

Recent Trends: weak momentum for solar

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011, EPIA Report September 2010

Installed Solar Power Capacity, 1996-2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

MW

GermanySpainJapanItalyUSMexicoAll Latin America

Recent Trends: weak momentum for solar

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011, EPIA Report September 2010

Recent Trends: weak momentum for solar (but Mexico leads)

Source: EPIA Report September 2010

Resource Potential: Excellent wind potential

Source: 3Tier , Free copy available here

Resource Potential: Excellent solar potential

Latin America

Spain, Germ

any and Ita

ly

Source: http://solarcooking.wikia.com

Resource Potential: Argentina Wind/Solar Potential

Wind: Solar:

Source: Meisen and Krumpel, Renewable Energy Potential of Latin America 2009

Resource Potential: Brazil Wind/Solar Potential

Wind Intensity: Solar Intensity:

Source: Meisen and Krumpel, Renewable Energy Potential of Latin America 2009

Resource Potential: Brazil Wind/Solar Potential

Wind and solar: Piaui, Bahia, Minas GeraisWind Intensity: Solar Intensity:

Source: Meisen and Krumpel, Renewable Energy Potential of Latin America 2009

Resource Potential: Mexico Solar Potential

Sonoran Desert

Source: Meisen and Krumpel, Renewable Energy Potential of Latin America 2009

Some context: Desertec Initiative

• Immense solar potential that exists in a desert

• Deserts and ecological questions

• The need for scaled CSP

www.desertec.org/

Resource Potential: Mexico Wind Potential

Source: Meisen and Krumpel, Renewable Energy Potential of Latin America 2009

Policy drivers

• Energy security• Declining costs of renewable energy,

especially solar

Policy Drivers: Energy security and the downsides of hydropower

• Brazilian drought in summer 2001, lack of hydro-reserves

Source: Center for Energy Economics Brazil’s Power Market Crisis 2002

Natural Gas Prices: Composite EU/UK/US/Canada Index (2010 dollars)

$0$2$4$6$8

$10$12

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Dol

lars

per

MM

BT

U

Policy Drivers: Energy security and volatility of natural gas prices

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011

Policy Drivers: Recent declining costs of wind power

Link: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/lbnl-5119e.pdf

Policy Drivers: Declining costs of PV solar power

Source: OpenPV NREL Database

Policy Drivers: Declining costs of solar overall

Source: Greentech Media Research: Concentrating Solar Power 2011: Technology, Costs and Markets

Policy Landscape: Renewables policies

• Regulatory policies– Feed-in tariff– Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) (Utility quota

obligation)– Tradable renewable energy certificate (RECs)

• Fiscal incentives– Tax incentives– Conditional grants

• Public financing– Public loans, public competitive bidding

Source: REN21 2010 Global Status Report

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Highlighted countries received highest scores on World Bank governance and rule of law indices.QuickTime™ and a decompressor

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Source: REN21 2010 Global Status Report

Policy Landscape: Regional Partnerships

• Sistema de Interconexión Eléctrica de los Países de América Central (SIEPAC)

Policy Landscape: Regional Partnerships

• MERCOSUR: Uruguayan initiatives to integrate the production of renewable energy

Links: http://www.rechargenews.com/energy/wind/article287636.ece,http://en.mercopress.com/2011/06/29/argentina-asks-mercosur-to-draft-an-industrial-policy-and-contain-asian-imports

Challenges

• End of the CDM as Kyoto period expires in 2012

• Centralizing all policy information related to the region into one database

• Fostering more meaningful regional integration and coordination

Global Energy Network Institute (GENI)http://www.geni.org/

1-619-595-0139

Peter Meisen, Founder and President

Derek Urmston, Research Associate