agripro turkish market update 05-08-2011 · china's soybean imports could rise 6% to a record...

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1 decrease the interest of the local crushers to Turkish sunseeds in view of big Black Sea crop prospects and expectation of low world sunflower complex prices. In the beginning of the Thrace harvest however, we expect the local crop prices to initially climb to meet imminent domestic demand until Ukraine/Russia crops are in full swing and imports are possible. Currently the domestic market is operating under the direct influence of 27% duty for sunseeds. The top graph shows price development of domestic crude sunoil vs. imported crude, between end of 2010 and today. The bottom graph shows price development of CIF TR sunseeds together with Çukurova region local sunseeds. The blue vertical line through the charts marks the date of issuance of 0% duty licences. Turkey has imported a total of 630,000 tonnes of sunflowerseeeds within the first six months of 2011. The total crude sunoil imports during this time has been 95,000 tonnes, most of it against the refined, packaged sunoil exports to the middle East, mainly to Iraq. We estimate very little sunseeds and around 25,000 tons Market Developments Domestic crude sunoil prices came down from $1,850 to $1,650, some $200/mt, in the last 4 weeks with rapidly rising US$/TL exchange rate and bearish new sunflower crop prospects. $/TL exchange rate has climbed from 1.61 to 1.74 in the last 4 weeks. The demand during the last month has been moderate to weak with most chain stores and distributors building their stocks prior to entering Ramadan. Çukurova region sunflower harvest in full swing now, crude sunoil is trading at around $1,640-1,650 ex- works, but still with low stock levels. Domestic sunflowerseed price in Çukurova rose from 1,150 TL to 1,290 TL (US$745) in the first 2 weeks of the harvest, in line with world prices plus 27%. In view of low stocks and customs pesticite trouble with a large size Argentine crude sunoil vessel in Mersin (which was now resolved) the refiners are busy attacking the domestic sunseeds crop in the south. Lobbying by some industrialists and relatively high end of season international sunseed prices prevented the government from employing the tariff quota system for this season. Therefore, locally purchased sunseeds will not contain the “gift” of duty free import after the end of the year, as they did in the last 2 seasons. This will inevitably

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Page 1: AgriPro Turkish Market Update 05-08-2011 · China's soybean imports could rise 6% to a record 57 million tonnes in 2011-12, the IGC said. The European Union's soybean imports are

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decrease the interest of the local crushers to Turkish sunseeds in view of big Black Sea crop prospects and expectation of low world sunflower complex prices. In the beginning of the Thrace harvest however, we expect the local crop prices to initially climb to meet imminent domestic demand until Ukraine/Russia crops are in full swing and imports are possible. Currently the domestic market is operating under the direct influence of 27% duty for sunseeds. The top graph shows price development of domestic crude sunoil vs. imported crude, between end of 2010 and today. The bottom graph shows price development of CIF TR sunseeds together with Çukurova region local sunseeds. The blue vertical line through the charts marks the date of issuance of 0% duty licences.

Turkey has imported a total of 630,000 tonnes of sunflowerseeeds within the first six months of 2011. The total crude sunoil imports during this time has been 95,000 tonnes, most of it against the refined, packaged sunoil exports to the middle East, mainly to Iraq. We estimate very little sunseeds and around 25,000 tons

Market Developments Domestic crude sunoil prices came down from $1,850 to $1,650, some $200/mt, in the last 4 weeks with rapidly rising US$/TL exchange rate and bearish new sunflower crop prospects. $/TL exchange rate has climbed from 1.61 to 1.74 in the last 4 weeks. The demand during the last month has been moderate to weak with most chain stores and distributors building their stocks prior to entering Ramadan. Çukurova region sunflower harvest in full swing now, crude sunoil is trading at around $1,640-1,650 ex-works, but still with low stock levels. Domestic sunflowerseed price in Çukurova rose from 1,150 TL to 1,290 TL (US$745) in the first 2 weeks of the harvest, in line with world prices plus 27%. In view of low stocks and customs pesticite trouble with a large size Argentine crude sunoil vessel in Mersin (which was now resolved) the refiners are busy attacking the domestic sunseeds crop in the south. Lobbying by some industrialists and relatively high end of season international sunseed prices prevented the government from employing the tariff quota system for this season. Therefore, locally purchased sunseeds will not contain the “gift” of duty free import after the end of the year, as they did in the last 2 seasons. This will inevitably

Page 2: AgriPro Turkish Market Update 05-08-2011 · China's soybean imports could rise 6% to a record 57 million tonnes in 2011-12, the IGC said. The European Union's soybean imports are

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crude sunoil imports in July and we predict a further 25,000 tons of crude sunoil to be imported in August, until Thrace region harvest arrives.

The graph below shows the price development of domestic crude sunflower oil on ex-works Thrace basis, between the end of last year and today. Turkish Oilseed Crops The rapeseed crop in the Thrace turned out to be a disappointment which we estimate around 40,000 tonnes in total. The lack of domestic sunoil stocks initiated certain crushers to go for big purchases hence rising the price above sellable rapeoil levels. The rapeseed price increased from 1,075 TL to 1,300 TL throughout the harvest which has now ended.

With Çukurova sunflower harvest in full swing, we see the crop size at around 100,000 tonnes this year. Thrace region sunflower harvest is being delayed with late plantings up until mid-September and there is talk of low yields and smaller sunflower heads especially for late planted sunflowers. Some expect Thrace crop size to be as low as 50% of last year but we put Thrace region crops size at around 450,000 tonnes at this stage. Rains during last week has been beneficial to a large sunflower cultivation area. Overall at this stage, we now expect the total Turkish total sunflowerseed production to be somewhat short of last year’s 900,000 tonnes.

Industry Consumer demand remained moderate in front of Ramadan but into the first week of the holy month we expect consumer demand to pick up gradually. The weak crude oil prices caused the distiributors to buy only as much as they need but steady demand from the shelves throughout Ramadan should ensure better days for major refiners/bottlers.

Corn oil sales somewhat recovered during the last month with falling world prices making it competitive again vis-a-vis sunoil.

There still has been no concrete development on the GMO issue with corn, DDGs and some soybean gene types still banned. The decision to allow imports, by Biosecurity Committee, of 3 GMO corn types is expected to come at sometime in September. The feed industry is also trying for the food use of approved soya genes to be granted by the Committee.

This morning, the Turkish cabinet has passed a resolution granting 500,000 tonnes of duty free corn import to Turkish Grain Board, TMO. The licence is to be used by TMO until 31 August 2012.

Page 3: AgriPro Turkish Market Update 05-08-2011 · China's soybean imports could rise 6% to a record 57 million tonnes in 2011-12, the IGC said. The European Union's soybean imports are

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International Market Developments

IGC Global soybean production is expected to fall 1% to 263.4 million metric tonness in 2011-12 season due to reduced planting in the U.S. and China, the International Grains Council said in its monthly report for July. Due to reduced planting, and based on earlier yields, the IGC expects U.S. soybean production to fall to 87.8 million tonnes in 2011-12 from 90.6 million tons this year. A shift in acreage towards corn may drag down China's soybean output to 14 million tonnes from 15.2 million tons in 2010-11. The preliminary forecast for India's soybean production is 11.5 million tonnes in 2011-12 down from 12.6 million tonnes this year.

China's soybean imports could rise 6% to a record 57 million tonnes in 2011-12, the IGC said. The European Union's soybean imports are likely to be little changed at 13.1 million tons. EU's rapeseed output is forecast to fall 9% to a four year low of 18.5 million tonnes. Germany's production may fall 25%. Rapeseed yields in Ukraine have also suffered bad weather. As a result, EU's rapeseed imports may rise 20% to 3 million tonnes. Even though global plantings of rapeseed are projected 6% higher on year in 2011-12 production will be almost unchanged at 59.2 million tonnes. Canada will maintain its position as the largest exporter with expected shipments of around 7 million tonnes.

Germany The 2011 German grain harvest results are likely to be significantly below last year's, the German farmers association DBV, said. Winter barley harvest is almost complete, and the results are about 20% below last year's, on around 8% smaller acreage, the DBV said. Extended rainy periods in recent weeks forced farmers in many parts of Germany to interrupt harvests since wet soil prevents combine harvesters from operating on the fields. In eastern and northeast Germany, the soil is still too wet for harvests, but combines began operating Tuesday in western and southern Germany. The rapeseed harvest is between 15% and 30% below that of 2010, depending on the region. In addition, rapeseed acreage of 1.31 million hectare is almost 10% smaller than that in 2010.

France France’s farm ministry yesterday increased their 2011 wheat crop estimate by half a million tonnes, to 32.5 million tonnes, though that’s still 9% behind last season’s 35.7 million tonnes crop. Corn production was seen at 13.3 million tonnes, in the first official estimate of the season, down 3% from 13.8 million tonnes back in 2010.

Ukraine Ukraine ministry of agriculture has raised their official 2011-12 season corn estimate to 15.5-16.0 million tonnes, up from 13.0-14.0 million tonnes previously. Ukraine’s total grains output is put at 44.5 to 44.5-45.0 million tonnes from 42.5 million tonnes in 2010-11 season.

China Chinese authorities have allowed a rise in the edible oil retail prices, a sign that after months of tough price controls Beijing is letting some inflation effects be felt in households. Prices on supermarket shelves for cooking oil are jumping 5%, major producers said. "Yes, we are raising prices of our cooking oil in China by about 5%," Lim Li Chuen, a spokeswoman for the largest producer of edible oil in China, Singapore-based Wilmar International Ltd., said by email. The permission to raise prices, granted by the National Development and Reform Commission, the government planning agency, follows recent increases in other prices that will be felt by consumers. Beijing, which carefully controls retail prices of soybean oil, late last year capped levels in what was described by authorities as a temporary move but one that was later extended. Price caps were also extended to a range of foods in China, in an effort to keep output high and prices under control. A Shanghai-based producer of edible oil said the increase followed lobbying by the nation's five big brands.

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Recent Trades

You can read and download this report and all our past reports from our web site www.agripro.com.tr

Japan Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Thursday purchased 103,342 metric tons of milling wheat, a government official said. The wheat, all of U.S. origin, is for delivery in three cargoes. The tender, issued Tuesday, is the first to purchase wheat for shipment in October. Japan bought 395,269 tons for shipment in September in three tenders last month. It bought 523,356 tons for August shipment, the highest for any month so far in the fiscal year from April 1. Its purchases for July were 475,873 tons. Japan imports food wheat from Canada, Australia and the U.S. The details of the latest tender are: 37,580 mt US, Western White, 32,028 mt US HRW, 33,734 mt US Dark Northern Spring.

Again Japan's agriculture ministry Wednesday bought 33,700 mt of feed wheat and 81,050 tons of feed barley in a sell-buy-sell tender, a government official said. The ministry bought the grain for bulk shipment by Nov. 30, the official from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said. This is the first time in five weeks that Japan has purchased feed grain in an SBS tender.

Taiwan Today, the Kaohsiung branch of Taiwan's Breakfast Soybean Procurement Association has bought 60,000 metric tons of Brazilian soybeans from Marubeni Corporation at 203.50 cents a bushel over the November futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade, traders said Friday. The deal is on a cost-and freight-basis and shipment is scheduled for Sept. 16-30. At 1046 GMT, the November CBOT soybean futures contract was trading 15.75 cents lower at $13.2950 a bushel. Asian buyers are keen to lock in purchases after the latest slump in prices.

Egypt Egypt's state-owned wheat buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities GASC, Thursday said it bought a total of 240,000 metric tons of Russian and Romanian wheat. Of the total, GASC bought 60,000 tons of Russian wheat from Louis Dreyfus at $261.94/ton, and 60,000 tons of Russian wheat from Cargill at $262.50/ton. It also bought another 60,000 tons of Romanian wheat from Toepfer at $262.50/ton, and 60,000 tons of Russian wheat from Viterra at $262.50/ton. The wheat is for shipment September 11-20.

USDA Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 550,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2011/2012 marketing year and cancellations of export sales of 550,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2010/2011 marketing year, the USDA said Tuesday.

On Thursday, USDA again announced export sales of 174,000 metric tons of soybean for delivery to China during the 2011/2012 marketing year. The 2011/2012 marketing year for soybeans begins September 1.

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Price Quotations (US$/TL 1.74) Price quotations as of Friday, 5th August 2011 are as follows: AgriPro Limited

Import: - New Crop Black Sea origin Sunseeds (44% bss) - CIF Marmara - $ 585 - New Crop Ukraine origin Rapeseeds (42% bss) - CIF Marmara - $ 655

- US Soybeans - CIF TR - $ 555 - S. America Soybeans - CIF TR - $ 570

- RBD Palm Oil - CIF TR $ 1,205 - RBD Palm Olein - CIF TR $ 1,225 - RBD Palm Stearin - CIF TR $ 995 - Black Sea origin Crude Sunoil - CIF Marmara/Mersin - $ 1.350/$ 1.360 - South America origin Crude Degummed Soyoil - CIF TR - $ 1.325 - USA Crude Degummed Corn Oil - CIF TR $ 1,500

- Black Sea origin 36 protein Sunmeal - CIF TR - $ 225

Domestic: - Çukurova sunseeds (42% oil basis) - $740

- Crude Sunoil - ex-works Thrace/Çukurova- $1,650 / $1,640 - Crude Rape Oil - ex-works Aegean/Çukurova - $ 1,600 - Crude Soyoil - ex-works Aegean/Çukurova - $ 1,450 ($1,500 for non-GMO) - Crude Corn Oil - ex-works - Southern Marmara - 3,050 TL - Semi-refined Cotton Oil - ex-works Çukurova - 2,575 TL - Crude Hazelnut Oil - ex-works Ordu - 4,000 TL

- 28 protein Sunmeal - ex-works, Thrace/Agean/Çukurova - 350 TL/400 TL/380 TL - Rapemeal - ex-works Thrace/Agean/Çukurova - $ 310 - 47 protein Soymeal - ex-works Agean/Çukurova - $ 500 - Cottonmeal - ex-works Çukurova - 580 TL

© Copyright 2011 AgriPro Limited This report is personal to the individual recipients. Any reproduction or redistribution of contents without written consent of AgriPro Ltd. is strictly prohibited. Any violation of our copyright will be prosecuted. The information and analyses given in the report are believed to be reliable. However we cannot be held responsible for accuracy of the information in our reports and forecasts, or our forecasts and/or price indications to be taken as basis to any commercial contract. Tel +90 212 236 0345 Fax +90 212 236 0385 email [email protected] web www.agripro.com.tr