agro-food global value chains - iamo · 2017. 7. 10. · isl itaisr jpn khm kor ltu lux lva mltmex...
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Agro‐food global value chains
Natalya VolchkovaNew Economic School
Center for Economic and Financial Research
Halle, GermanyJune 21, 2017
IAMO Forum 2017. Eurasian Food Economy
Global value chains – very important mode of international trade today• Estimated to be around 50% of trade value• Trade in tasks, not just in goods• Very important role of services in good production• Logistical services are very important, no inventories
• All these is driven by cost cutting incentives, which ensures that global firms are very competitive and efficient.
GVC participation varies a lot across countries
01020304050607080
Люксем
бург
Словакия
Венгрия
Чехия
Корея
Ирландия
Словения
Бельгия
Новрегия
Финляндия
Дания
Польша
Швеция
Австрия
Чили
Россия
Португалия
Герм
ания
Китай
Великобритания
Италия
Нидерланды
Япония
Швейцария
Франция
Мексика
Испания
Ю. А
фрика
Израиль
Австралия
Индонезия
Греция
Индия
Канада
Турция
США
Бразилия
Н. Зеландия
Внутренняя добавленная стоимостьВнешняя добавленная стоимость
Backward
Forward
OECD-WTO TiVAdatabase,
October 2015
Length of GVC varies by sectors, number of intermediates
OECD, 2012
GVC in agro‐food and manufacturing ‐ comparison
ARG
AUSAUT
BEL
BGR
BRA
BRN
CANCHE
CHL
CHNCYP CZEDEU
DNK
ESP
EST
EU FIN
FRA
GBRGRC
HKG
HUN
IDN
IND
IRL
ISLISRITA
JPN
KHM
KOR
LTU
LUX
LVA
MEXMLT
MYS
NLD
NOR
NZL
PHL
POLPRTROU
ROWRUS
SAU SGP
SVK
SVNSWE
THA
TUR
TWN
USA
VNM
ZAF
05
1015
GVC
par
ticip
atio
n in
Agr
o-fo
od
0 20 40 60GVC participation in manufacturing
2009GVC participation: agro-food vs manufacturing
Forward and Backward GVC participation
ARG
AUS AUT
BELBGR
BRA
BRN
CAN CHE
CHL
CHN
CYP CZEDEU
DNK
ESP
EST
EU FIN
FRA
GBRGRC
HKG
HUN
IDN
IND
IRL
ISLISRITA
JPN
KHM
KOR
LTU
LUX
LVA
MEXMLT
MYS
NLD
NOR
NZL
PHL
POLPRTROU
ROWRUSSAU
SGP
SVKSVN
SWE
THA
TURTWN
USA
VNM
ZAF
02
46
810
GVC
par
ticip
atio
n in
Agr
o-fo
od0 10 20 30 40
GVC participation in manufacturing
2009Backward GVC participation: agro-food vs manufacturing
ARG
AUS
AUTBEL
BGR
BRA
BRNCAN
CHE
CHL CHN
CYPCZE
DEUDNK
ESP
EST
EUFIN
FRA
GBRGRCHKG
HUN
IDN
IND
IRLISLISRITA JPN
KHM
KOR
LTU
LUX
LVA
MEXMLT
MYS
NLD
NOR
NZL
PHLPOL
PRT
ROUROW
RUS
SAU SGP
SVK
SVNSWE
THA
TUR
TWN
USA
VNM
ZAF02
46
GVC
par
ticip
atio
n in
Agr
o-fo
od
0 5 10 15 20GVC participation in manufacturing
2009Forward GVC participation: agro-food vs manufacturing
Forward vs Backward participation in Agro‐Food
ARG
AUSAUT
BELBGR
BRA
BRN
CANCHE
CHL
CHN
CYP CZEDEU
DNK
ESP
EST
EU FIN
FRA
GBRGRC
HKG
HUN
IDN
IND
IRL
ISLISRITA
JPN
KHM
KOR
LTU
LUX
LVA
MEXMLT
MYS
NLD
NOR
NZL
PHL
POLPRTROU
ROWRUSSAUSGP
SVKSVNSWE
THA
TURTWN
USA
VNM
ZAF
02
46
810
Back
war
d G
VC p
artic
ipat
ion
in A
gro-
food
0 2 4 6Forward GVC participation in Agro-food
2009Backward vs Forward GVC participation in Agro-food
GVC in agro and manufacturing ‐summary• GVC participation in agro‐food much more limited than in manufacturing
• There is some positive correlation between them – role of policies
• Comparative advantage affects sectoral GVC participation
• Comparative advantage more defines Forward GVC participation in agro‐food, while Backward GVC is more defined by policies
• Vietnam and Cambodia demonstrate remarkable position in agro‐food GVC
Overall GVC participation of FSU countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Russia Kazakhstan Belarus Armenia Kyrgyzstan Turk, Tadj, Uzb Latvia Ukraine Georgia
GVC participation of FSU countries
Backward GVC Forward GVC
CEFIR calculations based on GTAPv.8
Sectoral GVC participation of FSU countries
010
2030
4050
Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russia Tur Tadj UzbBW FW BW FW BW FW BW FW BW FW BW FW
Sectoral GVC participation of FSU countries
Agriculture FuelManufacture
CEFIR calculations based on GTAPv.8
GVC in Agriculture and Food in the world (OECD, 2017)• Varying patterns of engagement in GVCs
• European agro‐food VC source globally but supply locally• China have a greater span in both sourcing inputs and supplying to other markets
• US sources narrowly and more regionally focused, but supply is global.
• Overall, agro‐food global value chains are most developed in Asia and Europe compared with other regional groupings.
Policies and agro‐food GVC participation (OECD, 2017)• Trade policies are particularly important in determining GVC engagement and the domestic value added created
• barriers to imports reduce engagement in GVCs along with the domestic returns from agro‐food exports.
• for non‐tariff measures, if countries maintain more transparent and science based arrangements, that preserve the trade creating effects but avoid concerns being raised by trading partners, they can increase the domestic value added generated in exports.
• Agricultural policy and the capabilities of producers are also important.
• Infrastructure, agricultural research and development and education enhance GVC participation and its benefits
• non‐distortive agricultural policies are important: distortive policies not only reduced some forms of GVC engagement but also reduced the domestic value added created from GVC participation.
Distortions from CET in EAEU: effective rate of protection
GTAP sectors
Effective Rate of Protection (% of VA)
Actual value, 2014Russia Belarus Armenia Kazakhstan
Wheat 5.54 2.40 4.44 8.51
Forestry 15.83 10.10 10.49 15.37
Fishery 11.62 11.90 12.02 10.06
Meat cattle 76.52 ‐120.09 165.92 65.63
Diary products 42.02 ‐8.17 24.90 60.93
Vegetable oils and fats 2.23 ‐6.91 ‐13.65 5.64
Sugar ‐25.27 22.40 ‐3.08 ‐2.03
Apparel 15.68 ‐11.26 17.89 14.57
Electric equipment ‐4.26 41.38 ‐15.25 0.58
Leather products 30.48 ‐39.95 70.39 52.52
Ferrous metals 14.74 12.82 9.54 12.80
Trade across the borders and GVC participation (preliminary results)• We find Trade Across the Border index from Doing Business has negative and significant effect on agro‐food GVC participation, while have no effect on manufacturing GVC participation
• Out of different measures we find #of days to export has the strongest effect on Forward GVC participation
Doing Business 2017 in EAEUArmenia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russia
Ranking (из 189)
Easiness of doing business 38 (35) 37 (44) 35 (41) 75 (67) 40 (51)
Trade Across Borders 48 (29) 30 (25) 119 (122) 79 (83) 140 (170)Export, time (days)
Documents 2 4 128 21 25Crossing the border 39 5 133 20 96
Export, costs ($)Documents 100 108 320 145 765
Crossing the border 150 140 574 445 92Import, time (days)
Documents 2 4 6 36 43Crossing the border 41 1 2 37 96
Import, costs ($)Documents 100 0 0 200 153
Crossing the border 100 0 0 512 1125
15
Policy improvement in EAEU countries might have a very strong effect of GVC participation• Smart approach for CET setting accounting for distortive effect on sectoral development
• Protection vs. anti export bias
• Customs reform, especially in Russia• Overall policy stance
• Too much of import substitution• Food sovereignty, not food security
• There are some changes recently, but not enough
Role of imports in GVC – firm level evidence
Controls: industry (3 digit NACE) & region. Columns (6‐10) – firm size as well
Exporter Importer Exporters and Importers
Exp&ImpVs.Exporters
Exp&ImpVs. Importers
Exporter Importer Exportersand Importers
Exp&ImpVs.Exporters
Exp&ImpVs. Importers
Employment 558 452 944 247 260Productivity 138 166 182 66 32 32 62 35 85 32Total assets 1940 2170 4277 687 358 117 239 166 154 54Investments* 275 500 500 511 123 74 237 169 247 30
Prof margin* 34 34 45 23 22 31 33 42 15 12
N observations
23187 23187 23187 2411 3005 23187 23187 23187 2411 3005
* - less observations than above
Trade Premia, Russian firms, %
Role of services and infrastructure• GVC – trade in tasks, so very high demands to the quality of infrastructure to coordinate the overall process of product creation
• Logistics• Transportation• ITC
• Silk road initiative could have a very strong effect on GVC participation of countries along the way
Conclusions• GVC participation requires coordination of many policies
• Foreign investment• Trade policies• Infrastructure development• Service liberalization
• So far EAEU countries with few exceptions are lagging behind in all aspects, while have potential driven by comparative advantage
• Common trade policy in EAEU should be reevaluated having GVC aspect
• For agro‐food GVC food security concern should be reconsidered without regard for ideology