agrometeorological simulation using pero model for grape vine downy mildew in greece....
TRANSCRIPT
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Agrometeorological Simulation Using PERO Model for Grape Vine Downy Mildew in Greece.
N.R. Dalezios, D. Bampzelis and G. Daoularis
Department of Agriculture Animal Production and Aquatic Environment.University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece.
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PERO Model was applied for Grape Vine Downy Mildew .
Area of Study: Thessaly (Central Greece).
Specific Areas:
Tirnavos: Year 2001.
N. Aghialos: Years 2000 and 2001.
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Meteorological Data used in the Analysis: Daily Rain Data. Hourly Temperature Values. Hourly Relative Humidity Values. Hourly Leaf Wetness Values (measured by sensor).Starting and ending dates of infections N. Aghialos 2000 N. Aghialos 2001 Tyrnavos 2000
Start infectionEnd infection29/4/200116/5/200125/5/200111/6/200126/5/200111/6/200127/5/200115/6/2001
Start infectionEnd infection29/4/200111/5/2001 9/6/200121/6/200123/6/200116/7/2001
Start infectionEnd infection29/4/200011/5/200014/5/200025/5/200029/5/200015/6/200031/5/200015/6/2000
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Results of Application of the PERO Model for both Areas.Numbers of new, latent, visible, and total oilspots per hectarefor the ending dates of the infection for the N. Aghialos area (a), (b), and Tyrnavos area (c).(a)
(b)
(c)
End infectionNew oilspotsLatent oilspotsVisible oilspotsTotaloilspots11/5/200000505025/5/20000021821815/6/20000016591659
16/5/200100505011/6/2001037110421413 15/6/20010014111411
11/5/200100505021/6/20010019419416/7/200100837837
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Model results for the new, latent, visible, total oilspots.
1
05000
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
050050
005050
005050
005050
005050
005050
005050
005050
005050
005050
050050550
01000501050
01371501421
01371501420
01371491420
01371491420
01371491420
01371501420
01371501420
01371501420
01371501420
01371481418
01371461417
01371461416
01371451416
01371451416
01371441415
037110421413
037110421412
037110421412
037110421412
0014111411
0014091409
0014091409
0014091409
0014091409
0014071407
0014051405
0014051405
0014051405
0014051405
0014041404
0013801380
0013751375
0013701370
0013701370
0013351335
0013011301
0012941294
0012871287
0012871287
0012471247
0012081208
0011991199
0011921192
0011921192
0011471147
0011041104
0010931093
0010861086
0010861086
0010481048
0010081008
00996996
00989989
00989989
00944944
00900900
00887887
00880880
00880880
00881881
00881881
00881881
00881881
00881881
00831831
00784784
00774774
00767767
00767767
00720720
00674674
00666666
00659659
00659659
00613613
00566566
00557557
00550550
00550550
00503503
00461461
00452452
00445445
00445445
00404404
00359359
00346346
00339339
00339339
00295295
00255255
00242242
00235235
00235235
00236236
00236236
00236236
new oilspots
latent oilspots
visible oilspots
total oilspots
dates
oilspots/hectare
N. Aghialos 2001
628_00
C:\PERO\MARIA\628_00.ENT -20.12.2002 - 13:50:17
INFECTIONS andCYCLES EXPERO 3.1 (c) 01.01.21
development ofcycles - start: 29.04.2000
new oilspotslatent oilspotsvisible oilspotstotal oilspots
29/405029/4029/40
30/405030/4030/450
1/50501/501/550
2/50502/502/550
3/50503/503/550
4/50504/504/550
5/50505/505/550
6/50506/506/550
7/50507/507/550
8/50508/508/550
9/50509/509/550
10/505010/5010/550
11/505011/5011/550
12/505012/5012/550
13/505013/5013/550
14/505014/5014/550
15/505015/5015/550
16/50016/55016/550
17/50017/55017/550
18/50018/55018/550
19/50019/55019/550
20/50020/55020/550
21/50021/55021/550
22/50022/55022/550
23/50023/55023/550
24/50024/55024/550
25/5050025/55025/5550
26/50100026/55026/51050
27/50137127/55027/51421
28/50137128/550153028/51420
29/50137129/54929/51420
30/50137130/54930/51420
31/50137131/54931/51420
1/6013711/6501/61420
2/6013712/6502/61420
3/6013713/6503/61420
4/6013714/6504/61420
5/6013715/64816805/61418
6/6013716/6466/61417
7/6013717/6467/61416
8/6013718/6458/61416
9/6013719/6459/61416
10/60137110/64410/61415
11/6037111/6104211/61413
12/6037112/6104212/61412
13/6037113/6104213/61412
14/6037114/6104214/61412
15/60015/61411285015/61411
16/60016/6140916/61409
17/60017/6140917/61409
18/60018/6140918/61409
19/60019/6140919/61409
20/60020/6140720/61407
21/60021/6140521/61405
22/60022/6140522/61405
23/60023/6140523/61405
24/60024/6140524/61405
25/60025/6140425/61404
26/60026/6138026/61380
27/60027/61375192027/61375
28/60028/6137028/61370
29/60029/6137029/61370
30/60030/6133530/61335
1/7001/713011/71301
2/7002/712942/71294
3/7003/712873/71287
4/7004/712874/71287
5/7005/712475/71247
6/7006/712086/71208
7/7007/711997/71199
8/7008/711928/71192
9/7009/711929/71192
10/70010/71147186010/71147
11/70011/7110411/71104
12/70012/7109312/71093
13/70013/7108613/71086
14/70014/7108614/71086
15/70015/7104815/71048
16/70016/7100816/71008
17/70017/799617/7996
18/70018/798918/7989
19/70019/798919/7989
20/70020/794420/7944
21/70021/790021/7900
22/70022/788722/7887
23/70023/788023/7880
24/70024/788024/7880
25/70025/788125/7881
26/70026/788126/7881
27/70027/788127/7881
28/70028/788128/7881
29/70029/788129/7881
30/70030/783130/7831
31/70031/778431/7784
1/8001/87741/8774
2/8002/87672/8767
3/8003/87673/8767
4/8004/87204/8720
5/8005/86745/8674
6/8006/86666/8666
7/8007/86597/8659
8/8008/86598/8659
9/8009/86139/8613
10/80010/856610/8566
11/80011/855711/8557
12/80012/855012/8550
13/80013/855013/8550
14/80014/850314/8503
15/80015/846115/8461
16/80016/845216/8452
17/80017/844517/8445
18/80018/844518/8445
19/80019/840419/8404
20/80020/835920/8359
21/80021/834621/8346
22/80022/833922/8339
23/80023/833923/8339
24/80024/829524/8295
25/80025/825525/8255
26/80026/824226/8242
27/80027/823527/8235
28/80028/823528/8235
29/80029/823629/8236
30/80030/823630/8236
31/80031/823631/8236
628_00
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
new oilspots
latent oilspots
visible oilspots
total oilspots
dates
oilspots/hectare
2001
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
total oilspots
/
2001
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
visible oilspots
/
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
visible oilspots
-
Counted oilspots reduced in hectare.
1
1530
1680
2850
1920
1860
dates
oilspots/hectare
counted oilspots (N. Aghialos 2001)
Sheet1
N. Aghialos 2001
A: 28/5/2001B:5/6/2001C: 15/6/2001D: 27/6/2001E: 10/7/2001
44323
1210433
1412434
5812444
63121244
73171245
751712512
7517121112
7617121212
7617131512
7618141617
7620151717
7720151717
7720161717
9022161718
9233171720
9534171820
9537171920
9648182029
9656192033
9656193434
9756193534
9756203534
9756205143
9758205350
9759265450
9769285552
9770335655
9770335755
9775335756
9775345756
9775345757
9775355957
9776376557
9786376759
9790377059
9790397060
9792397570
9793437571
9796467874
9896477975
9896547975
9897549075
9897549089
9897559094
9897569194
9897569195
9897569295
9897569296
9897579496
9897579496
97579696
97589697
98589697
98599697
98609697
609798
699798
709798
719798
759799
759899
7598
7598
76
77
79
80
86
90
90
90
91
92
92
94
94
94
95
95
95
96
96
96
96
97
97
97
97
98
98
98
98
99
99
.incidence.agh 2001
28/55/615/627/610/7
5156956462/100
28/55/615/627/610/7
153168285192186/
28-May5-Jun15-Jun27-Jun10-Jul
15301680285019201860/
.incidence.agh 2001
0
0
0
0
0
/
(N. 2001)
Sheet3
-
Comparison of calculated / counted oilspots for N. Aghialos area
Results of the simulation were compared with actual measurements of the disease taken by agronomists in situ for the same periods
dates(counted-simulated)/hectare(counted-simulated)/ counted28/5/200114800,97 5/6/200116320,9715/6/200114390,5027/6/20015450,2810/7/20017130,38
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Variance of total error
1
0.97
0.97
0.5
0.28
0.38
dates
total error (. Aghialos 2001)
2001
--/
28/55/615/627/610/728/5153014201100.07
15301680285019201860/5/6168014182620.16
15/62850141114390.50
27/6192013755450.28
10/7186011477130.38
28.55.615.627.610.7
14201418141113751147/
((-/)
28/55/615/627/610/7
0.970.970.500.280.38
2001
0
0
0
0
0
/
2001
2
0
0
0
0
0
(. 2001)
3
MBD00061FC3.xls
3
1530
1680
2850
1920
1860
/
2001
Sheet1
N. Aghialos 2001
A: 28/5/2001B:5/6/2001C: 15/6/2001D: 27/6/2001E: 10/7/2001
44323
1210433
1412434
5812444
63121244
73171245
751712512
7517121112
7617121212
7617131512
7618141617
7620151717
7720151717
7720161717
9022161718
9233171720
9534171820
9537171920
9648182029
9656192033
9656193434
9756193534
9756203534
9756205143
9758205350
9759265450
9769285552
9770335655
9770335755
9775335756
9775345756
9775345757
9775355957
9776376557
9786376759
9790377059
9790397060
9792397570
9793437571
9796467874
9896477975
9896547975
9897549075
9897549089
9897559094
9897569194
9897569195
9897569295
9897569296
9897579496
9897579496
97579696
97589697
98589697
98599697
98609697
609798
699798
709798
719798
759799
759899
7598
7598
76
77
79
80
86
90
90
90
91
92
92
94
94
94
95
95
95
96
96
96
96
97
97
97
97
98
98
98
98
99
99
.incidence.agh 2001
28/55/615/627/610/7
5156956462/100
28/55/615/627/610/7
153168285192186/
28.55.615.627.610.7
15301680285019201860/
.incidence.agh 2001
/
2001
Sheet3
MBD00062A86.xls
3
0
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
550
1050
1421
1420
1420
1420
1420
1420
1420
1420
1420
1418
1417
1416
1416
1416
1415
1413
1412
1412
1412
1411
1409
1409
1409
1409
1407
1405
1405
1405
1405
1404
1380
1375
1370
1370
1335
1301
1294
1287
1287
1247
1208
1199
1192
1192
1147
1104
1093
1086
1086
1048
1008
996
989
989
944
900
887
880
880
881
881
881
881
881
831
784
774
767
767
720
674
666
659
659
613
566
557
550
550
503
461
452
445
445
404
359
346
339
339
295
255
242
235
235
236
236
236
total oilspots
/
2001
628_00
C:\PERO\MARIA\628_00.ENT -20.12.2002 - 13:50:17
INFECTIONS andCYCLES EXPERO 3.1 (c) 01.01.21
development ofcycles - start: 29.04.2000
datesurvoilsplatent oilspotsreal oilspotsdatetotal oilspots
29.04.050029.04.0
30.04.050030.04.50
01.05.050001.05.50
02.05.050002.05.50
03.05.050003.05.50
04.05.050004.05.50
05.05.050005.05.50
06.05.050006.05.50
07.05.050007.05.50
08.05.050008.05.50
09.05.050009.05.50
10.05.050010.05.50
11.05.050011.05.50
12.05.050012.05.50
13.05.050013.05.50
14.05.050014.05.50
15.05.050015.05.50
16.05.005016.05.50
17.05.005017.05.50
18.05.005018.05.50
19.05.005019.05.50
20.05.005020.05.50
21.05.005021.05.50
22.05.005022.05.50
23.05.005023.05.50
24.05.005024.05.50
25.05.05005025.05.550
26.05.010005026.05.1050
27.05.013715027.05.1421
28.05.013715028.05.1420
29.05.013714929.05.1420
30.05.013714930.05.1420
31.05.013714931.05.1420
01.06.013715001.06.1420
02.06.013715002.06.1420
03.06.013715003.06.1420
04.06.013715004.06.1420
05.06.013714805.06.1418
06.06.013714606.06.1417
07.06.013714607.06.1416
08.06.013714508.06.1416
09.06.013714509.06.1416
10.06.013714410.06.1415
11.06.0371104211.06.1413
12.06.0371104212.06.1412
13.06.0371104213.06.1412
14.06.0371104214.06.1412
15.06.00141115.06.1411
16.06.00140916.06.1409
17.06.00140917.06.1409
18.06.00140918.06.1409
19.06.00140919.06.1409
20.06.00140720.06.1407
21.06.00140521.06.1405
22.06.00140522.06.1405
23.06.00140523.06.1405
24.06.00140524.06.1405
25.06.00140425.06.1404
26.06.00138026.06.1380
27.06.00137527.06.1375
28.06.00137028.06.1370
29.06.00137029.06.1370
30.06.00133530.06.1335
01.07.00130101.07.1301
02.07.00129402.07.1294
03.07.00128703.07.1287
04.07.00128704.07.1287
05.07.00124705.07.1247
06.07.00120806.07.1208
07.07.00119907.07.1199
08.07.00119208.07.1192
09.07.00119209.07.1192
10.07.00114710.07.1147
11.07.00110411.07.1104
12.07.00109312.07.1093
13.07.00108613.07.1086
14.07.00108614.07.1086
15.07.00104815.07.1048
16.07.00100816.07.1008
17.07.0099617.07.996
18.07.0098918.07.989
19.07.0098919.07.989
20.07.0094420.07.944
21.07.0090021.07.900
22.07.0088722.07.887
23.07.0088023.07.880
24.07.0088024.07.880
25.07.0088125.07.881
26.07.0088126.07.881
27.07.0088127.07.881
28.07.0088128.07.881
29.07.0088129.07.881
30.07.0083130.07.831
31.07.0078431.07.784
01.08.0077401.08.774
02.08.0076702.08.767
03.08.0076703.08.767
04.08.0072004.08.720
05.08.0067405.08.674
06.08.0066606.08.666
07.08.0065907.08.659
08.08.0065908.08.659
09.08.0061309.08.613
10.08.0056610.08.566
11.08.0055711.08.557
12.08.0055012.08.550
13.08.0055013.08.550
14.08.0050314.08.503
15.08.0046115.08.461
16.08.0045216.08.452
17.08.0044517.08.445
18.08.0044518.08.445
19.08.0040419.08.404
20.08.0035920.08.359
21.08.0034621.08.346
22.08.0033922.08.339
23.08.0033923.08.339
24.08.0029524.08.295
25.08.0025525.08.255
26.08.0024226.08.242
27.08.0023527.08.235
28.08.0023528.08.235
29.08.0023629.08.236
30.08.0023630.08.236
31.08.0023631.08.236
628_00
survoilsp
latent oilspots
real oilspots
total oilspots
/
2001
total oilspots
/
2001
-
Results of the Application(for both Areas)
The model made reliable forecasts of the infection.
The model forecasted correctly the variation and the intensity of the disease especially in its critical stage, when maximum infection occurred.
Variations in Relative Humidity and leaf wetness play an important role for spreading of the disease.