agt presentation dec 2019 · 2 days ago · discount & share price post fy20 denoted by change...

15
Important information Asset Value Investors Limited (“AVI”) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is registered as an Investment Advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This publication is issued by AVI. This publication is not a financial promotion, does not constitute investment advice and nothing in it should be construed as investment advice. Our publications provide information and education for investors who should carry out research and seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. The information contained in our publications is not, and should not be read as, an offer or recommendation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Our publications are not, and should not be seen as, a recommendation to use any particular investment strategy. Our publications do not take the specific needs, investment objectives and financial situation of any particular individual into consideration and any investments mentioned may not be suitable for you. You should not base any investment decision solely on the basis of the information that we publish. The information we publish has been obtained from, or is based on, sources that we believe to be accurate and complete. Although reasonable care has been taken we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information we publish. Any opinions that we publish may be wrong and may change at any time. You should always carry out your own independent verification of facts and data before making any investment decisions. If you are unsure of any investment decision you should seek a professional financial advisor. The value of investments can fall as well as rise. Any information relating to past performance of an investment or investment service is not a guide to future performance. You may not get back the original amount invested. You should not make investments with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Page 1: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

Important information

• Asset Value Investors Limited (“AVI”) is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is registered as an Investment Advisor

with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This publication is issued by AVI.

• This publication is not a financial promotion, does not constitute investment advice and nothing in it should be construed as investment advice.

Our publications provide information and education for investors who should carry out research and seek independent financial advice before

making any investment decisions.

• The information contained in our publications is not, and should not be read as, an offer or recommendation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an

offer or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Our publications are not, and should not be seen as, a recommendation to use any

particular investment strategy.

• Our publications do not take the specific needs, investment objectives and financial situation of any particular individual into consideration and

any investments mentioned may not be suitable for you. You should not base any investment decision solely on the basis of the information that

we publish.

• The information we publish has been obtained from, or is based on, sources that we believe to be accurate and complete. Although reasonable

care has been taken we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information we publish. Any opinions that we publish may be

wrong and may change at any time. You should always carry out your own independent verification of facts and data before making any

investment decisions. If you are unsure of any investment decision you should seek a professional financial advisor.

• The value of investments can fall as well as rise. Any information relating to past performance of an investment or investment service is not a

guide to future performance. You may not get back the original amount invested. You should not make investments with money you cannot afford

to lose.

Page 2: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

Annual General Meeting 2020

Page 3: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

AGT MSCI ACWI ex-US

First-Half 2020 -24.7% -17.0%

Second-Half 2020 32.9% 18.3%

Full Year 0.0% -1.8%

Performance in FY20

2

Source: AVI, Morningstar (at 30/09/2020). 1First-Half period = 30/09/2019 to 31/03/2020; Second-Half period = 01/04/2020 to 30/09/2020. Full year is the fiscal period from

30/09/2019 – 30/09/2020

1

1

-46%

-44%

-42%

-40%

-38%

-36%

-34%

-32%

-30%

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

AGT portfolio weighted avg. discount (RHS) AGT NAV MSCI ACWI Ex US

1

Page 4: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

What We’ve Been Doing

3

Source: AVI (at 30/09/2020). Note: 1. multi currency facility denominated in JPY. Rate is LIBOR plus 1.025%. 2. Debt at fair value

• Leading into the crisis AGT had reduced gearing

• Coupled with active portfolio management, this

gave us freedom to take advantage of the set back

in markets, improving the quality of the portfolio

• Turnover in FY20 was 39.5% (FY19: 26.8%)

AGT debt Currency Amount Cost Maturity

Series A Sterling Unsecured Note £ 30,000,000 4.18% 2036

Series B Euro Unsecured Note € 30,000,000 3.25% 2036

Unsecured Note € 20,000,000 2.93% 2037

Revolving Credit Facility1 ¥ 9,000,000,000 1.05% -

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

AVI Global Trust - Net Gearing2

Page 5: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

What We’ve Been Doing

4

Source: AVI (at 30/09/2020). Note: Significant buys & sells between 19/02/20/20 and 31/08/2020

• We added to our highest conviction ideas and built positions in new names by re-applying gearing and

recycling capital from asset sales

28.4

23.3

16.6 14.710.5 9.3

-7.6

-28.6-26.7

-23.0-18.7 -17.1

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

TBS Pargesa Wendel CosanJardine

StrategicRiverstone

Energy Kinnevik Prosus KKR Christian Dior Softbank VNV Global

Net

Consi

dera

tion (

£m

)

BuysSells

• This reduced our cyclical exposure and increased exposure to higher growth companies

• Our active portfolio management has significantly added to returns, versus the pre-sell-off portfolio

Page 6: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

Digitally-Enabled Growth Quality Category

Leaders

Japanese Corporate

GovernanceCyclical Recovery

AVI Global Trust Investment Themes

5

Source: AVI (at 30/09/2020). Note: 1. Direct Holding

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Page 7: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

Underlying Asset % NAV Holding Company

Alibaba 5.7% New Softbank

Tencent 3.9% New Prosus / Naspers1

Fujitec 2.9% Fujitec

LVMH 2.8% New Christian Dior SE

Hidroelectrica SA 2.4% Fondul Proprietatea

Sony Technologies 2.0% Sony

Zalando 2.0% Kinnevik B

Benefit One 1.8% Pasona

SK Kaken 1.8% SK Kaken

Sony Playstation 1.8% * Sony

Lowe's 1.7% Pershing Square Holdings

Swire Properties 1.7% Swire Pacific Ltd 'B'

Godrej Consumer Products 1.5% Godrej Industries

Kanaden 1.5% Kanaden

Restaurant Brands 1.5% Pershing Square Holdings

Aker BP ASA 1.5% Aker

Chipotle Mexican Grill 1.5% Pershing Square Holdings

Ferrari 1.3% EXOR

Agilent 1.3% Pershing Square Holdings

Hilton 1.2% Pershing Square Holdings

AGT Lookthrough Portfolio Repositioning

6

30th September 2020

Source: AVI (at 30/09/2020). Note: Arrows indicate positions which AGT either added to or sold out from in FY20 period. *position unchanged. “New” New position not held for entire period. 1Prosus exposure of 3.0% and 0.9% from Naspers

30th September 2019

Underlying Asset % NAV Holding Company

Swire Properties 2.9% Swire Pacific Ltd 'B'

doValue 2.3% Eurocastle

Minor International 2.3% Symphony

Sony Playstation 1.8% Sony

Fujitec 1.7% Fujitec

Hidroelectrica SA 1.7% Fondul Proprietatea GDRs

Benefit One 1.6% Pasona

Partner RE 1.6% EXOR

Kato Sangyo 1.5% Kato Sangyo

Ferrari 1.4% EXOR

Kanaden 1.4% Kanaden

Cosan Logistica 1.4% Cosan Ltd

SK Kaken 1.3% SK Kaken

TFG Asset Management 1.3% Tetragon Financial

Bureau Veritas 1.2% Wendel

Fiat Chrysler Autos 1.2% EXOR

Daiwa Industries 1.2% Daiwa Industries

Aker BP ASA 1.2% Aker

Toshiba Plant 1.2% Toshiba Plant

Sony Music 1.2% Sony

Page 8: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

AGT Contributors & Detractors in FY20

7

Source: AVI / Paladyne Note: Period from 30/09/2019 to 30/09/2020

3.1%

2.7%

2.0%

1.7%

1.2%

0.9%

0.9%

0.7%

0.6%

0.6%

-1.2%

-1.6%

-1.7%

-2.1%

-2.4%

Kinnevik

Pershing Square Holdings

Japan Special Situations

Softbank

Sony

KKR

Oakley Capital

Investor AB

Fondul Proprietatea

Cosan Ltd.

Wendel

Riverstone Energy

Swire Pacific

Jardine Strategic

Symphony International

Contribution to Overall Fund Return

Page 9: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

€ 0

€ 50

€ 100

€ 150

€ 200

€ 250

€ 300

€ 350

€ 400

€ 450

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20

Kinnevik - Discount & Share Price2

Discount Price (RHS)

Increased Position: Kinnevik (4.7% of NAV)

8

• Increased position by 28% from 17-Apr to 31-Aug, ROI

to date of 72% (GBP)

• Swedish-listed holding company, with record of strong

returns – 10 year TSR of +18% p.a.

• Value creation in early stage investments – with

estimated +36% IRR on unlisted portfolio since 20161

• Strong growth from portfolio companies

• Zalando +22% sales growth in 3Q20

• Livongo +126% sales growth in 3Q20

• Babylon sales forecast to grow 4x in 2020

Holdings

% of

SectorNAV

Zalando 43% E-commerce

Tele2 22% Telecoms

Livongo 15% Health care technology

Other listed 4% -

Healthcare Services 5% Healthcare technology

Consumer Services 4% Consumer technology

Financial Services 3% Fintech

Source: AVI (at 30/09/2020). ROI calculated to 30/09/2020. 1. DNB Markets estimate. 2. Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc.

Added to position 17/04

Page 10: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

New Position: Prosus (4.4% of NAV1)

9

• Bought in on 06-May, ROI to date of 9% (GBP)

• Attractive way to gain exposure to explosive Tencent

growth at a heavily discounted valuation

• Recent announcement of buybacks across the

Prosus/Naspers structure highlight extreme discount

Source: AVI (at 30/09/2020). ROI calculated to 30/09/2020. Note: 3.5% direct holding, 0.9% lookthrough exposure from Naspers.

-55%

-45%

-35%

-25%

-15%

Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20

Prosus Discount

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20

Tencent - Share Price ($HKD)

Holdings

% of

SectorNAV

Tencent 87% Technology & Media

Other Listed 3% Internet & Direct Marketing

Avito 2% Classifieds

OLX 2% Classifieds

PayU 2% Payments

Other Unlisted 2% Internet & Direct Marketing

Page 11: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

New Position: Christian Dior (2.7% of NAV)

10

• Bought in on 24-Mar, ROI to date of 2% (GBP)

• Exposure to LVMH unique mega brands with strong

growth characteristics, attractive margins and returns on

capital

• Sell off led to dislocation in CDI’s discount

• Possible collapse of CDI structure over time

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20

Christian Dior (CDI) Discount

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Fashion &Leather

Wine & Spirits Perfume &Cosmetics

Watches &Jewelry

SelectiveRetailing

LVMH Sales & EBIT Breakdown (2019)

% of sales % of EBIT

Source: AVI (at 30/09/2020). ROI calculated to 30/09/2020

The Virtuous Cycle of Luxury Fashion & Mega Brands

Faster Growth

Higher EBITMegabrand

Top of Mind Higher Ad Spend

Higher Directly

Operated Stores

Productivity

Page 12: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

Fujitec Vs TOPIX Key Events

Fujitec TOPIX

AVI launches campaign and 73 slide

presentation

Fujitec announce that they will form a new

strategy by year end

• AVI have been shareholders in Fujitec since July 2018

• We published recommendations in May, releasing a presentation titled:

‘Taking Fujitec To The Next Level’

• Since publication, Fujitec’s share price has been performing strongly (+39%

vs TOPIX +9%)

• AVI have been in dialogue with Fujitec since our campaign began

• We will keep meeting and engaging behind the scenes to keep up the

pressure

• AVI will wait for Fujitec’s announcement of revised strategic plan

What’s Next?Taking Fujitec to the Next Level

11

Source: AVI, Capital IQ (at 30/09/2020).

• AVI’s approach to shareholder activism in Japan is showing signs of success

Key Idea: Fujitec (2.9% of NAV)

Page 13: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

Name % NAV Discount

Japan Special Situations 18.9% -39%

Pershing Square Holdings 9.7% -30%

Oakley Capital Investments 8.1% -29%

SoftBank Group 7.6% -56%

Sony 5.9% -42%

Fondul Proprietatea 5.2% -19%

Kinnevik B 4.7% -6%

Third Point Offshore Investors 4.7% -23%

KKR 4.0% -29%

EXOR 3.5% -43%

Prosus 3.5% -34%

Investor AB 'A' 3.2% -17%

Jardine Strategic 3.1% -49%

Godrej Industries 2.9% -57%

Christian Dior 2.7% -24%

AVI Global Trust Portfolio Holdings

12

A high conviction portfolio

Top 10 = 56.8% Top 20 = 84.1% Weighted Avg. Discount = 34.6%

Source: AVI (as at 30/09/2020). Note: 1A basket of 15 stocks: Kato Sangyo, Pasona Group, Fujitec, Daiwa Industries, Kanaden, SK Kaken, Teikoku Sen-I, Sekisui Jushi,

Toagosei Co, Digital Garage, Konishi, DTS Corp, NS Solution Corp, Bank of Kyoto, Toshiba.

1

Name % NAV Discount

Tetragon Financial 2.7% -62%

VNV Global 2.8% -13%

doValue 2.5% -47%

Aker ASA 2.3% -9%

Swire Pacific Ltd 'B' 2.3% -64%

JPEL Private Equity 2.2% -35%

Symphony International Holdings 1.9% -57%

Hipgnosis Songs 1.5% 6%

Naspers 0.9% -30%

GP Investments 0.8% -58%

Vietnam Phoenix Fund - PE 0.7% -15%

Better Capital 2009 0.3% -41%

Ashmore Global Opportunities 0.0% -49%

Eurocastle Investment 0.0% -24%

Page 14: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

Summary

13

• AGT invests in high quality, world-class businesses trading on wide discounts to NAV due to their complex,

misunderstood and mispriced ownership structures

• In early 2020 AGT shifted exposure towards higher quality companies with greater liquidity

• Resulting in very strong performance since the end of March, outperforming the benchmark by 18.7%

• The portfolio is well positioned, with strong upside potential from the underlying holdings

• Discounts remain at elevated levels versus history

• Creating the prospective of attractive returns

Page 15: AGT Presentation DEC 2019 · 2 days ago · Discount & share price post FY20 denoted by change in line colour. Note Livongo has subsequently completed merger with Teladoc. Added to

14

Thank you

We welcome questions at [email protected]