Control/Tracking Number: EPI-07-A-28-AHAActivity: AbstractCurrent Date/Time: 10/3/2006 4:02:55 PM

Prediction of the Framingham Risk Score and Coronary Heart Disease Risk in Extremely Obese Individuals.

Author Block: Robert C Lowe Sr., Jennifer Patzkowsky, Debbie Zimmerman, Polk County Schs, Winter Haven, FL; Phil Chen, Cognoscenti Health Inst, Orlando, FL

Abstract:The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) is widely used as a 10-year estimate of an individual’s risk of death due to myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD). The variables in the FRS include age, total cholesterol (TC), HDL cholesterol (HDL), systolic blood pressure (SBP), treatment for hypertension, and cigarette smoking. Current thinking alludes to the development of CHD through risk factors associated with the Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), i.e., elevated triglycerides (TG), waist circumference (WC), blood pressure (BP), glucose (BG) and decreased HDL. In addition to the FRS, the ratio of TC to HDL cholesterol has been validated to estimate 10-year coronary heart disease risk (CHDR). The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between MetS risk factors, FRS, and CHDR in individuals classified as extremely obese (EO). Seventy-three EO individuals (Age = 48 ± 9 yr; BMI = 40.7 ± 8.8) randomly selected to participate in a weight loss program were used in this study. Multiple biometric measures, including those variables for MS and FRS were measured or calculated. The data were analysed by multiple stepwise regression. Triglyceride (TG) was the best predictor of FRS from a subset of MetS variables (Model 1; F1,70 = 40.41, p <0.00), however, it was a poor fit (R2

adj = 36%). The inclusion of HDL, TG, and WC produced the best fit for CHDR (Model 2; F3,68 = 26.35, p < 0.00) from the subset of MetS variables and accounted for slightly half of the variance (R2

adj = 52%). Although both Model 1 and Model 2 were highly significant, they were not able to explain 64% and 48% of the model variance, respectively. Despite the MetS risk factors being implicated in the development of CVD and CHD, these results suggest that using MetS variables to predict the 10-year risk of dying from MI and CHD is not warranted. :

Author Disclosure Block: R.C. Lowe, None; J. Patzkowsky, None; D. Zimmerman, None; P. Chen, None.

Unlabeled/Unapproved Disclosure (Complete): Please Select: : There are no unlabeled/unapproved uses of drugs or products

Category (Complete): Obesity Keywords (Complete): Physical activity ; Obesity ; Exercise Presentation Preference (Complete): Oral Awards (Complete): Connection Corner (Complete): : yes

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