Stiftung Wissenschaft und PolitikGerman Institute for International and Security

C9 Aid, Minds, Hearts: A Longitudinal Study of Governance Interventions in Afghanistan

Project TeamResearch Question

Michael DaxnerPrincipal Investigator

Jan KoehlerResearch Associate

The project asks under which condi-tions the presence of external actors and their interaction with community and district level actors leads to effec-tive and legitimate governance in North- East Afghanistan. The project continues a longitudinal study of the

impact of military and civil interven-tions on peace- and state-building pro-cesses in North East Afghanistan over the twelve year funding period of the SFB 700. The Afghan case represents an “once-in-a-lifetime” opportunity for researchers to observe in real time and

in the field the impact of external poli-cies on state-building and the dynam-ics of social order, and thus, to evaluate the SFB’s overall research question concerning the scope and conditions of effective and legitimate governance in areas of limited statehood.

Contribution to the SFB 700

In our research in Period I and II we noted significant regional and local variance regarding the modes of governance provision in North-East Afghanistan. We suppose that this variance is linked to differences in the effectiveness and legitimacy of governance in the research region. In line with the third central research ob-jective of the SFB 700, in Period III we thus (1) intend to understand how the empiri cally observed variance in the

quality and modes of governance emerges and how these differences lead to different outcomes regarding the le-gitimacy and effectiveness of gover-nance. (2) In a subsequent step we will then explore how different degrees and forms of legitimacy and effectiveness of governance impact on the stability of social order. (3) Finally we thus seek to understand the link between the quality of governance and the stability of social order in a conflict setting.

ImplementationThis study is based on a mixed method approach, combining qualitative guide-line interviews, fieldwork and case stud-ies with quantitative household surveys which will be repeated in 2015 and 2017 during the third funding period of the SFB. As an empirical and inductive meso-sociological research project we

are observing, assessing and analyzing a range of intervention effects on local societies in Afghanistan. In this final funding period we will use the wider in-ductive research results to develop and test the stabilisation model of the inter-vention drawing on concepts of dynamic stability and social order.

Institutional Arrangements

Adaption / Modernization

Modern_Media

StateEmployees

Local ValueThreat

“Modern Values“

Girls schoolenrolment

Stabilisation Indicators 2.06.2013

Compact Pashtunpopulation: village /cluster / district

External VariablesBad neighbourhood:insurgent control /

contested

Criminal Economy:village / cluster / district

in OPE-infested environment

Demography: Migration Girls school

enrolment

Security (hh& dist.)

Fear class“not afraid“Fear class

“very afraid“

Incidents

Physical SecurityFear of ISAF

Institutional Arrangements

Gov̀ c_fairDDC

Villages / gov-zones

Police security

Power actor district

DM care

Govfair_DAA

Gov̀ c_fairdistrict

Admin education

Corruption

External Variables

Economy / Development

Project count

Car Index

Mat. Well-Being_selfass

Devel. actorscontrib.

Dev. pos. change allsec

BazarIndex

Governm.contrib.

District Dummy Remoteness / TerrainHistory of Violence per Gov. Period

Demography: Ethnicity,Diversity, Density & Size

Research team interviewing a village shura in Kunduz province

Girls doing homework after school, Takhar Judges in Takhar—a whip symbolises Sha-ria law, the writing refers to a 3-days trai-ning organised by the ministry

Protection for a German CIMIC Team in Kunduz

Notorious, partly renovated prison in Pul-e Charkhi

Policeman in new uniform in Badakhshan, 2003

Bridge in Takhar before it was rebuild by aid organisations in 2009

Candidates for Provincial Council Elections in Takhar

Idle filling station at remote former drug marked in Laghman

Former jihadi commander now running the District Development Assembly in Baharak, Takhar province

Physical Security

Governance-Zones in north-east afGhanistan

Adaption / Modernization

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00Villages/Zones

Admin. Education

Police -> Sec

DM Care

GovFair_State-DistrictGovFair_DDA

GovFair_CDC

Corruption

Poweractor district

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00Incidents

Fear ISAF/NATO

Fearclass "not afraid"

Fearclass "very afraid"

Security (hh & dist.)

Girls school enrolement

0,001,002,003,004,005,006,007,008,00Project count

Dev. pos. change allsec

Devel. actors contrib.

Governm. contrib.Bazaar Index

Mat. Well-Being_selfass.

Car Index

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00Girls school enrolement

"ModValues"

Local Value ThreatModern_Media

State Employees

Modernisation

Economy / Development

JurmAverage

Contact: daxnermf@zedat.fu-berlin.de