aidc real estate update residential trends january 19,...

© 2016 Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company

1

AIDC Real Estate UpdateResidential Trends

January 19, 2017


What data does Metrostudy collect?

•Who is Metrostudy?


Who uses Metrostudy?

•Who is Metrostudy?


Current ContactInformation:

Ben SageDirector, Mid-Atlantic RegionPhone: 703-574-8429Email: [email protected]

Brooke BurnsDirector of Business DevelopmentPhone: 301-448-5001Email: [email protected]


Washington DC MetroResale Market


Northern VirginiaMLS Annual Sales and Listings

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Listings

Annual SalesSource: MRIS


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Source: MRIS

Northern VirginiaMLS Months Supply of Listings


Northern VirginiaMLS Median Price History

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Trendline

Source: MRIS


Suburban MarylandMLS Annual Sales and Listings

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Listings

Annual Sales

Source: MRIS


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Source: MRIS

Suburban MarylandMLS Months Supply of Listings


Suburban MarylandMLS Median Price History

$150,000

$170,000

$190,000

$210,000

$230,000

$250,000

$270,000

$290,000

$310,000

$330,000

Trendline

Source: MRIS


Washington DC MetroS&P Case-Shiller Index (January 2000 = 100)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300


Washington DC MetroS&P Case-Shiller Index YOY Percent Change

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%


Washington DC MetroNew-Home Market


Washington DC MetroResidential Permit/Starts History

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

MFSF

Sources: Census Bureau ('95-'03)Metrostudy ('04-'16)


Washington DC MetroMulti-family as a Percent of All Permits

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%Source: Census BureauForecast: Metrostudy


National OverviewMetro Areas Ranked by Annual SF Permits (Sep ’16)

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Denver

Salt Lake

Tampa

Nashville

Charlotte

Washington DC

Austin

Orlando

Phoenix

Atlanta

Dallas/FW

Houston

Source: Metrosearch USACensus Bureau

-5%

+7%

+13%

+11%

+7%

+15%

+18%

+16%

+24%

+27%

+12%

+28%


Maryland2015/16 Starts by County and Y-O-Y % Change

0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750

Carroll

Calvert

St. Mary's

Harford

Baltimore

Charles

Frederick

Washington DC

Howard

Montgomery

Prince George's

Anne Arundel

4Q15

4Q16

Source: Metrostudy

* Only counties with 150+ annual starts shown

-22%

69%

8%

-10%

16%

21%

24%

11%

11%

-1%

41%

-1%


MarylandCommunities Ranked by 3Q16 Annual Starts


MarylandMedian New and Resale Closing Price History

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000New Homes

Resale HomesSource: Metrostudy (Analytics)


MarylandPercent of Median New Home Price Above Resale

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Source: Metrostudy Analytics


Northern Virginia2015/16 Starts by County and Y-O-Y % Change

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Jefferson

Culpeper

Fauquier

Spotsylvania

Frederick

Berkeley

Fairfax

Stafford

Prince William

Loudoun

4Q15

4Q16

Source: Metrostudy

* Only counties with 100+ annual starts shown

-7%

-22%

24%

32%

21%

15%

-9%

9%

-9%

-35%


Loudoun CountyAnnual Starts and Percent Share of NoVA

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000ShareU

nits

Loudoun County

Percent of NoVA

Source: Metrostudy


Loudoun County Map

Southeast CornerOf County AccountsFor 80% of Activity


Northern VirginiaCommunities Ranked by 3Q15 Annual Starts

Rank Community CountyPrice

Range AnnualStarts

AnnualClosings

1 Brambleton Loudoun $445-$810 329 3222 Moorefield Station Loudoun $465-$705 248 1793 Loudoun Valley Loudoun $260-$552 227 2584 Willowsford Loudoun $580-$1325 225 1965 Virginia Manor Loudoun $289-$730 198 2056 Shenandoah at Lake Fred Frederick $200-$485 165 1407 Westridge Loudoun $305-$568 145 1548 Wentworth Green Prince William $321-$580 133 1359 Stone Ridge Loudoun $340-$714 130 12310 Celebrate Virginia Stafford $190-$335 126 11811 Dominion Valley C.C. Prince William $297-$821 121 122

cont'd


Northern VirginiaMedian New and Resale Home Closing Price

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000New Homes

Resale HomesSource: Metrostudy (Analytics)


Northern VirginiaPercent of Median New Home Price Above Resale

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Source: Metrostudy Analytics


Essential Ingredients• Job Growth

• Low Unemployment

• Healthy Resale Market

• Low Mortgage Rates

• Favorable Demographics

Should mean a somewhat improved housing market in 2016


Thank You!

aidc real estate update residential trends january 19,...

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