aids, poverty, and food security: challenges for the next 25 years
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AIDS, Poverty, and Food Security: Challenges for the Next 25 Years. T.S. Jayne Michigan State University RENEWAL 3 Workshop, Johannesburg, South Africa 13 March 2007. The Role of Social Science:. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
AIDS, Poverty, and Food Security:
Challenges for the Next 25 Years
T.S. JayneMichigan State University
RENEWAL 3 Workshop, Johannesburg, South Africa
13 March 2007
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
The Role of Social Science:
• To understand how HIV, AIDS, human behavior, and environment interact to affect human welfare
• To identify cost-effective means of prevention, treatment, and mitigation
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
The Role of Social Science:
• To understand how HIV, AIDS, human behavior, and environment interact to affect human welfare
• To identify cost-effective means of prevention, treatment, and mitigation
Resistance
Resilience
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
The Role of Social Science:
• To understand how HIV, AIDS, human behavior, and environment interact to affect human welfare
• To identify cost-effective means of prevention, treatment, and mitigation
Resistance
Resilience
Behavior
Social conditions
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
The Role of Social Science:
• To understand how HIV, AIDS, human behavior, and environment interact to affect human welfare
• To identify cost-effective means of prevention, treatment, and mitigation
Resistance
Resilience
Behavior
Social conditions
Institutions
Policies
Programmes
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
What do we know about the effectiveness of alternative policies
and programmes?
• If Donors Provided an Additional $10 billion to Combat AIDS, how should it be allocated?– to ARV treatment?– to improved nutrition programs?– to agricultural & rural development?– to investment in vaccines?– to community-driven development programs?– to programmes combating alcohol abuse?
……NO ONE REALLY KNOWS
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Overview of Current Understanding
• HIV/AIDS and poverty are mutually reinforcing
– AIDS exacerbates poverty– factors associated with poverty worsen the
spread of AIDS– Disease, environment and human behavior
co-evolve over time
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Therefore, the most effective programmatic responses will be three-
pronged:
i. Programmes that improve health & nutritione.g., Nutrition, alcohol mitigation, STD programmes
ii. strategies that promote rural poverty reduction• broad-based agricultural development
(Mellor, Johnston)• Agricultural policy and programmes are
powerful levers of change.
iii. Strategies addressing gender dimensions
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Health and Nutrition Programmes
• Spread of AIDS is co-factored with:– STDs: elevates risk of contraction 5-
10x– Nutritional status– Parasite load and other diseases that
degrade human immune response– quality of basic health services– Male violence, alcoholism
• All associated with poverty
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
POVERTY RATES ARE CORRELATED WITH LOW AGRICULTURAL INCOMES
Eth
iopi
a
Tan
zan
ia
Ma
dag
asc
ar
Ken
ya
Bur
undi
Con
go
, DR
Rw
and
a
Uga
nd
aR2 = 70%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
20 40 60 80 100
National Poverty Rates (various years)
Per
Cap
ita
Ag
GD
P (
US
$/p
erso
n),
200
2
Source: O. Badiane
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
% of Public Budget Allocated to Agriculture
% Gvt budget allocation to Agriculture
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%
Burkina FasoMadagascar
ChadMali
MalawiEthiopiaGuineaZambia
Cote d'IvoireCameroon
SenegalBenin
Gambia, TheNigeriaKenya
ZimbabweTanzania
UgandaNiger
RwandaBurundi
Guinea-BissauGhana
Mozambique
Maputo Declaration for 2008
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Yet Poverty Reduction Requires More than Just Agricultural Development
• Gender inequities - local institutions/traditions influence resilience– Rules governing women’s rights and access
to resources• e.g. can widows retain land and other productive
assets after husband’s death?• Findings from nationwide survey in Zambia:
about 1/3 of widows lose access to land within 2 years after the death of their husband (Chapoto, Jayne, Mason).
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Gender Effects of Mortality on Crop Cultivation
• In Kenya:– Death of male head - 0.9 acre to cash
crops (e.g., sugarcane, horticulture)– Death of female head - 1.8 acre to
cereals, tubers
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Where from here? Major Challenges
1. Improved drug supply chain management– Potential for drug resistance:– “Adherence” - avoid disruptions in supply chain– Traditional supply chain challenges: financing,
reliable distributors, matching supply with need– Expiration of “old drugs” – Very little “adherence” monitoring– Stock-outs raise likelihood of mutation
• Most countries in the region are not equipped for second-line drugs
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Where from Here? Major Challenges - II
2. Improved Health-Nutrition-Education Programmes– Aggressively combat STDs– Sexual risk behavior education– Condoms– Access to basic health care – Basic education– Nutrition programmes– Alcohol “management” programmes
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Where from Here? Major Challenges - III
3. Agricultural Development– Given the link between poverty and AIDS,
improving livelihoods is crucial– Agricultural development is pre-condition
for sustained and rapid growth in living standards
– So, focus public resources on investments that catalyze agricultural development (pro-poor)
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Budget allocation to Agricultural Sector in Zambia:
Personnel Emoluments20%
Operational funds11%
Irrigation Development3%
Infrastructure2%
Food Security Pack & EDRP12%
Food Reserve Agency Maize Marketing
15%
Fertilizer Support Program37%
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Where from Here? Major Challenges - IV
4. Modify rules governing women’s rights and access to resources-- work with communities to recognize that
it is in the communities’ interest for widows to retain access to land after husband’s death
-- Will require shifts in consciousness -- Recognition that communities’ resilience
to AIDS will require more equality for vulnerable groups
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Thank you
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Is the Cassava Boom Related to AIDS-related Labor Shortages?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Rwanda Mozambique Zambia
non-afflictedmale deathfemale death
% of area cultivated
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Characteristics of MSU household surveys
Country Sample size Year(s) of surveys
Panel or cross-sectional
Kenya n=1266 1997, 2000,
2002, 2004
Panel
Malawi n=420n=372
1990, 2002
Panel
Mozambique
n=4908 2002, 2005 Panel
Rwanda n=1395 2002 Cross-section
Zambia n=6922 2001, 2004 Panel
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Income Status (2000) of Households Incurring a Prime-age Death between
2000-2003, Rural Zambia
Deceased prime-age males
Deceased prime-age females
Poorest 25% 17.0 22.7
2nd quartile 20.9 20.4
3rd quartile 32.2 29.6
Wealthiest 25% 29.9 27.3
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Michigan State University, Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Findings
Trends in indicators of rural livelihoods, Zambia, 1991/2-2003/4
Source: Calculated from Post-Harvest Surveys (CSO)