aim model presentation...socio-econ. factors socio-econ. & emission scenario asia-pacific forum...

Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002

1

AIM Model Presentation

1. Brief introduction of the AIM2. Projection of Global Warming 3. Mitigation of Global Warming

Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

Yuzuru MatsuokaKyoto University, Japan


2

PolicymakingProcess

AIM (Asian team)

IMAGE(Netherlands）GCAM

（USA）

Integrated Assessment Model

ecology

policy sciences

hydraulics

meteorology

geochemistrypaleo-

climatology

geophysics AtmosphericChemistry economics

pedology


3

The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model

• AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model.

• It is one of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), and a large-scale computer simulation model developed to promote the integrated assessment process in the Asia-Pacific region

• Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea, Thailand and Malaysia members.

• The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began an international collaboration system from 1994.


4

The AIM Approach

Japan team

India team

China team

Korea team

Thailand team

Malaysia team

Ecosystem

Water resourceSea levelrise

Agriculture

Humanhealth

GHG emissions

Climate change

APEIS

IPCC

UNEP/GEO3

Eco-Asia

EMF19

Nationalgovernment

privatecompanies

applymodel

develop-ment

Populationmodel

Lifestyle

Land use modelEnergymodel

Technology

Economic model

Atmosphericchemistry

Climatic change

Oceanuptake

Carbon cycle

Mitigationof

Climate Change

Adaptationof

Climate Change

AIM/Emission, AIM/Material

AIM/Climate

AIM/Ecosystem

AIM

/Tre

nd


5

AIM/Emission

CCSR/NIESCGCM

AIM(Asian-PacificIntegratedModel)

AIM/Emission AIM/Climate

AIM/Ecosystem

Atmos-phere

Land SurfaceOcean

Adaptation

WaterResourceLand-use

CropProductivity

Food DemandAnd Supply

Socio-Econ.Factors

Socio-Econ. &Emission Scenario


6

AIM/Emission Coupling of Top-down model and Bottom-up model

Regional Air Pollution

Model

Population Resource Base Lifestyle

Socio-Economic Scenarios

Goods and Service Price

Goods & Service DemandEnergy

Price

Industrial Process Change

Regional / National Bottom-up Model

Technology Change

End Use Energy

Efficiency

Social Energy

Efficiency

Food Consumption

PatternIndustrial

Production

Final Energy

Demand

Final Energy Supply

Energy Conversion Technology Efficiency

Primary Energy Supply

Energy Conversion Technology

Biomass Energy

Demand

Global Energy-Economic Model

Goods & Service Supply

Biomass Farm

Global Land Equilibrium Model

AIM/emission

GHGs Emissions

AIM/climate Model

GDP

GDP

Population

Resource Base GDP

Population

Energy Service Deman

d

Social Energy

Efficiency Change

End Use Technology

Change

End Use Technology

Energy Resource

Exploitation Technology Other

Inputs

Land Input

Cropland

Pasture

Forest

Other Land

SO2, NOx, SPM

Emission


7

A1FI (A1C)

A2A1FI (A1G)

A1BB2

A1TB1

CO2 Emission Scenarios


8

AIM/Climate

CCSR/NIESCGCM



AIM/Ecosystem

Atmos-phere

Land SurfaceOcean

Adaptation


CropProductivity


Socio-Econ.Factors



9

AIM/Climate

convection and transport of

aerosol, SO2 and NOx

Climate modelRadiative forcing, Energy balance

Upwelling-Diffusion ocean model

AIM/emission

Global temperature changeGlaciersGreenlandAntarctica

Carbon cycle model CH4 model

N2O model CFCs model

Sea level rise

Ice meltThermal

expansion

Balance and Chemical model of GHGs

Natural change

Sea level rise model

Spatial interpolation with GCM GCM,RegCMexperiments

Regional temperature change

Ocean model


10

Temperature change between 1990 and 2100

1～1.

51.

5～2

2～2.

52.

5～3

3～3.

53.

5～4

4～4.

54.

5～5

5～5.

55.

5～6

B1 2.0±0.5

A1T 2.5±0.6

B2 2.7±0.6

A1B 2.9±0.6

A2 3.8±0.8

A1FI 4.5±0.9All 3.1±1.1

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0

0.5

1

Fitte

d pr

obab

ility

and

freq

uenc

y of

occ

uren

ce1 2 3 4 5 6 Temperature change (C)

Geometric mean= 2.88 CS.D. of logarithm= 0.346

←5%

1.6

3C

←50

% 2

.88C

←95

% 5

.1C

Temperature change (C)

Freq

uenc

y of

occu

rren

ces

Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3, HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM


11

Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF

< -3

0

-20～

-15-5

～0

10～

1525～

30

Japan 4.6±9.9%

China 7.2±9.4%

India 3.7±19.5%0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

<1

.01.

0-1.

51.

5-2.

02.

0-2.

52.

5-3.

03.

0-3.

53.

5-4.

04.

0-4.

54.

5-5.

05.

0-5.

55.

5-6.

06.

0-6.

56.

5-7.

0>

7.0

Global 3.1±1.1℃

Japan 3.7±1.3℃

China 3.9±1.4℃

India 3.1±1.1℃

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Freq

uenc

y of

oc

curr

ence

Freq

uenc

y of

oc

curr

ence

Precipitation change (%)

Temperature change (℃)

Precipitation change Temperature change


12

AIM/Ecosystem

CCSR/NIESCGCM



AIM/Ecosystem

Atmos-phere

Land SurfaceOcean

Adaptation


CropProductivity


Socio-Econ.Factors



13

Wheat productivity change in some countries from 1990 to 2100

-100～

-70-70～

-60-60～

-50-50～

-40-40～

-30-30～

-20-20～

-10-10～

00～

1010

～20

20～

3030

～40

40～

5050～

Japan 24.3±4.4%

China 33.2±12.5%

India -34.3±16.1%

Canada 90.6±19.8%

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

-100～-70

-70～-60

-60～-50

-50～-40

-40～-30

-30～-20

-20～-10-10～

00～10

10～2020～

3030～4040～

5050～

Japan -6.5±1.5%

China -5.9±10.6%

India -53.2±19.9%

Canada 29.7±6.9%

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Productivity change (%)


Freq

uenc

y of

oc

curr

ence

Freq

uenc

y of

oc

curr

ence

Without CO2 fertilizationWith CO2 fertilization


14

Costs and Benefits Atmospheric Stabilization

-70～

-65

-65～

-60

-60～

-55

-55～

-50

-50～

-45

-45～

-40

-40～

-35

-35～

-30

-30～

-25

-25～

-20

-20～

-15

-15～

-10

-10～

-5-5

～0

0～5

5～10

SRES 　 -34±16%

450ppm -14±5.8%

550ppm -20±6.8%

650ppm -26±7.0%

750ppm -29±7.8%

0.000.10

0.20

0.30

0.40


Freq

uenc

y of

occu

rren

ce

A1FI

A2A1

BB2

A1T

750ppm

650ppm

550ppm

450ppm

4.13.6

1.9

0.90.3

2.9 3.3

0.90.6

0.0

2.3 2.3

0.40.3

0.0

1.21.2

0.0 0.00.0

0.01.02.03.04.05.0

Wheat productivity change in India from 1990 to 2100, with CO2 fertilization

GD

P lo

ss (%

)

GDP reduction relative to SRES scenarios


15

Some Representative results of AIM calculation

• Global temperature increases in 2100 are 3.1±1.1℃, lower and upper 5 percentile temperatures are 1.6 and 5.1℃.

• Climate change impacts are serious in some sectors and countries. India, wheat productivity, 34±16% and 53±20% decrease w/wo CO2 fertilization.

• Some impacts are recovered by these mitigations. In the Indian case, the percentages of recovered are;

• The costs of atmospheric stabilization are

in GDP% loss

Targetconcentration 450ppm 550ppm 650ppm 750ppm

% recovered 20% 14% 8% 5%

ReferenceScenario B2 A2

450ppm target 0.9 3.6550ppm target 0.6 3.3650ppm target 0.3 2.3750ppm target 0.0 1.2

aim model presentation...socio-econ. factors socio-econ. & emission scenario asia-pacific forum...

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