aiolos forecast studio - vertical software - vitec · 2018-12-03 · aiolos forecast studio vs...
TRANSCRIPT
Aiolos Forecast Studio
Home
CustomersAbout us AFS ModelsHome Services Get started
And 60 more
Yearly Aiolos user group meetings
Aiolos reference group
Model portfolio
Gas LoadElectricity Load District Heating Load
Wind Power Production Hydro Power ProductionSolar Power Production
About us AFS ModelsHome Services Get started
Aiolos Forecast Studio
VS
Microsoft Visual Studio
Software Development Environment
Create your own models and adjust the ones available in Aiolos.
”A MatLab look alike tool/environment”
Aiolos Model Studio
Klicka på symbolen för att infoga bild här. Bilden ska vara utfallande (undantag frilagda objekt) och får inte vara bredare än vad stödlinjen visar. Bilden placeras alltid under den grå fliken.
Flexible tree structure with multiple levels
Series can be a linear combination of other series. Unique and optimal factors calculated by the system for several forecast horizons.
Weighting of series:
- Weather stations
- Forecasting models within Aiolos
- Aiolos vs external forecasts
- Top Down/Bottom Up
© VITEC ENERGY AB [email protected] +46 90 154 900
Intelligent aggregation of forecast series
Multiple weather institutesAbout us AFS ModelsHome Services Get started
Multiple weather institutesAbout us AFS ModelsHome Services Get started
Weather serviceForecast Supplier Global Data Local Model Resolution Updates Length Data available from Region Parameters
DMU VHR GFS Eta 10 km 01:50, 7:50, 13:50, 19:50
Hourly 72 hours 2011-10-18 Northern/Central Europe(site on demand)
17 (T, W, G, H, P (2m, 80m, 800m), Pc, C)
FMI EC HARMONIE/HIRLAM
2,5/7,5 Check everyhour)
Hourly 48 hours 2014-10-07 Nordic/Europe (Search on name, outside Finland only
major cities)
7 (T, P, H, W, D, C, Pc)
Meteogroup* EC,GFS HIRLAM,WRF Customized Customized Hourly 72 hours Customized Customized Customized
Metoffice Unified Unified 12 km 01:53, 07:53, 13:53, 19:53
3-hourly 120 hours 2014-11-25 Global/focus on North-West Europé (Fixed sites,
>4000 world wide)
7 (W, D, T, C, P, H, F)
SMHI OPEN ACCESS EC AROME 2,5 km 00:20, 03:50, 07:50, 11:20, 15:20, 17:50
Hourly 48 hours, 3-6-hourly 216 hours
2014-05-08 Northern Europe (site on demand)
7 (T, W, D, H, C, P, Pc)
StormGeo* Mixed Mixed Customized Customized Customized Customized Customized Customized
DWD Mixed (EC, ICON)
MOSMIX 03,09,15,21 240 2018 Global (Site on demand, 4000+ sites)
7(T, W, D, P, C, Pr, G)
YR EC AROME 2,5 km Check everyhour
Hourly 48 hours, 3-6-hourly 216 hours
2010-09-27 Northern Europé/Global (site on demand)
6 (T, W, D, P, C, Pr)
Foreca EC, GFS AROME, HIRLAM
2,5 km Hourly 48 hours. 3-
Hourly 48 hours, 3-6-hourly 240 hours
2016 Global (Site on demand)
EDUCANDI
Web based education once a month
Recorded sessions
For a free number of users
www.viteceducandi.com
Services
AIOLOS QUALITY SERVICE
Data check
Forecast check
Error alerts
Regular set up control
Aiolos Quality ServiceAbout us AFS ModelsHome Services Get started
Let the system optimize the systems settings in Aiolos by ”Autotune”.
© VITEC ENERGY AB [email protected] +46 90 154 900
Autotune
Flexible tool for evaluation of…
Forecast accuracy
Different system/weather suppliers
Combinations of suppliers of system/weather suppliers
Weather stations
Bottom Up/Top Down
Manual vs automatic forecast
Etc..
Aiolos Follow Up
The Studio - OverviewAbout us AFS ModelsHome Services Get started
Storage Interface
Historical values
Multiple Weather Forecasts
Multiple Observations
Real time values
GUIWeighted Forecast
Partner Institutes + others
Day types
Multipe models
”Auto Tune”Forecast model tuning
Users
Aiolos Quality ServiceFollow Up
Manual Validation/Simulation/Adjustments
(Optional)
Aiolos Model Studio/AnalyticsSeries Map
System settings
Aiolos Forecast Studio
Market Data(e.g. Nordpool) Export
(Example)
External forecast providers
- One system for all forecasts
- Multiple weather forecats
- Weighting of forecast series
- Autotune
- User interface
© VITEC ENERGY AB [email protected] +46 90 154 900
Summary
- Forecast accuracy
- Expertise in implementing systems
- Continuous development
- Adjusting the system to the customers
© VITEC ENERGY AB [email protected] +46 90 154 900
Summary