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Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc. Methyl Bromide AERMOD Modeling Assessment 1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580
Page 1 of 76
Air Concentration Dispersion Modeling Assessment of Methyl Bromide
Concentrations in Tauranga Port, New Zealand
Submitted to:
Ian Gear
Stakeholders in Methyl Bromide Reduction
P.O. Box 10986
Wellington, NZ 6143
Submitted by:
David A. Sullivan, Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM)
Dennis Hlinka, Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM)
Ryan D. Sullivan, Certified Environmental Professional (CEP)
Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc.
1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200
Alexandria, VA 22308
DRAFT REPORT
7/10/2018
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Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc. Methyl Bromide AERMOD Modeling Assessment
1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580 Page 2 of 76
Table of Contents
1.0 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 8
2.0 Scope of Assignment ................................................................................................................ 9
3.0 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 9
3.1 Fumigation Emissions ......................................................................................................... 10
Table 1. Calculation Worksheet for Computing Flux (µg/m2/sec) for the 120 g/m
3
Application Rate (China) ...................................................................................................... 11
Table 2. Calculations Used to Determine Flux in Table 1 for China ................................... 11
Table 3. Calculation Worksheet for Computing Flux (µg/m2/sec) for the 72 g/m3
Application Rate (India) ....................................................................................................... 12
Table 4. Calculations Used to Determine Flux in Table 3 for India ..................................... 12
3.2 Ventilation Emissions ......................................................................................................... 13
Table 5. Emission Rates Scaling Worksheet Example ......................................................... 14
3.3 Meteorological Data............................................................................................................ 15
Figure 1. Data Availability at Tauranga Airport .................................................................. 15
Figure 2. Location of Pseudo Meteorological Tower at Tauranga Port where logs
fumigation are currently conducted ...................................................................................... 16
Table 6. AERMET-Ready Met Data Generated by WRF and MMIF (June 20, 2017) ....... 17
Table 7. List of Meteorological Files ................................................................................... 18
Figure 3. Wind Rose for Tauranga Port Based on WRF Data .............................................. 19
3.4 Dispersion Modeling ........................................................................................................... 20
3.4.1 Single-Source Runs ...................................................................................................... 21
3.4.2 Multiple-Source Runs .................................................................................................. 22
3.4.3 Ship Emissions ............................................................................................................. 23
Figure 4. Stack and Receptor Placement for Multiple Log Pile Fumigation Modeling ...... 24
Figure 5. Stack and Receptor Placement for Ship and Multiple Log Pile Fumigation
Modeling ............................................................................................................................... 25
4.0 Results ..................................................................................................................................... 26
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Table 8. Maximum Downwind Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) at 20 m From Land-
Based Log Pile Sources Based on the 90th
and 95th
Percentile Concentrations .................... 28
Table 9. Maximum Downwind Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) at 20 m From Both
Ship and Land-Based Log Pile Sources Based on the 90th
and 95th
Percentile Concentrations
............................................................................................................................................... 28
Table 10. Maximum Downwind 24-hour Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) at 20 m
From Both Ship and Land-Based Log Pile Sources Based on the 90th
Percentile
Concentrations ...................................................................................................................... 29
Table 11. Maximum Downwind 24-hour Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) at 20 m
From Both Ship and Land-Based Log Pile Sources Based on the 95th
Percentile
Concentrations ...................................................................................................................... 29
5.0 References ............................................................................................................................... 30
6.0 APPENDICES ........................................................................................................................ 31
Appendix A: WRF Data Description ........................................................................................... 31
Appendix B: Isopleth Analyses (China) ...................................................................................... 33
Matrix of Model Runs for Single Source Scenarios ............................................................. 33
Matrix of Model Runs for Multiple Source Scenarios ......................................................... 33
Matrix of Model Runs for Ship Only Scenarios ................................................................... 33
Matrix of Model Runs for Multiple Source Scenarios and Ship Emissions (combined) ..... 33
Figure B-1. 90th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 34
Figure B-2. 95th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 35
Figure B-3. 90th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 36
Figure B-4. 95th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 37
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Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc. Methyl Bromide AERMOD Modeling Assessment
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Figure B-5. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Multiple
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 38
Figure B-6. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Multiple
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 39
Figure B-7. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Land-Based Source Run ......................................................................................... 40
Figure B-8. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Land-Based Source Run ......................................................................................... 41
Figure B-9. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run (Adjusted to 45,000 m3 Volume) ......................................................................... 42
Figure B-10. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run (Adjusted to 45,000 m3 Volume) ......................................................................... 43
Figure B-13. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run ...................................................................... 44
Figure B-14. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run ...................................................................... 45
Appendix C: Isopleth Analyses (INDIA) .................................................................................... 46
Matrix of Model Runs for Single Source Scenarios ............................................................. 46
Matrix of Model Runs for Multiple Source Scenarios ......................................................... 46
Matrix of Model Runs for Ship Only Scenarios ................................................................... 46
Matrix of Model Runs for Multiple Source Scenarios and Ship Emissions (combined) ..... 46
Figure C-1. 90th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 47
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Figure C-2. 95th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 48
Figure C-3. 90th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 49
Figure C-4. 95th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 50
Figure C-5. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Multiple
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 51
Figure C-6. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Multiple
Land-Based Source Run ....................................................................................................... 52
Figure C-7. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Land-Based Source Run ......................................................................................... 53
Figure C-8. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Land-Based Source Run ......................................................................................... 54
Figure C-9. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run (Adjusted to 45,000 m3 Volume) ......................................................................... 55
Figure C-10. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run ............................................................................................................................... 56
Figure C-13. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run ...................................................................... 57
Figure C-14. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run ...................................................................... 58
APPENDIX D. SHIP MODELING RESULTS PRIOR TO SCALING ............................. 59
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Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc. Methyl Bromide AERMOD Modeling Assessment
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Figure D-1. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run ............................................................................................................................... 60
Figure D-2. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run ............................................................................................................................... 61
Figure D-3. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run ............................................................................................................................... 62
Figure D-4. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run ............................................................................................................................... 63
Appendix E – Recovery Isopleth Analyses (CHINA AND INDIA) ............................................ 64
Figure B-11. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 95% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 65
Figure B-11.1 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 90% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 66
Figure B-11.2 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 80% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 67
Figure B-12. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 95% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 68
Figure B12.1 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 90% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 69
Figure B12.2 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
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Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc. Methyl Bromide AERMOD Modeling Assessment
1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580 Page 7 of 76
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 80% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 70
Figure C-11. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run Using 95% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 71
Figure C-11.1 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 90% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 72
Figure C-11.2 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 80% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 73
Figure C-12. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run Using 95% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 74
Figure C-12.1 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run Using 90% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 75
Figure C-12.2 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run Using 80% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions .............................................................................................................................. 76
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1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc. (Sullivan Environmental) was engaged by Stakeholders
in Methyl Bromide Reduction (STIMBR) to simulate the expected airborne Methyl Bromide
concentrations at the Port of Tauranga (New Zealand). These simulations were based on
application rates applicable to the regulatory requirements of India and China. Sullivan
Environmental performed this analysis by incorporating the meteorological conditions specific to
the timber exporting Port of Tauranga in New Zealand into the AERMOD modeling system.
The purpose of the modeling assessment is to determine the 90th
and 95th
percentile airborne
concentrations of the Methyl Bromide fumigant for both India and China emission rates by using
five year meteorological data from the Port of Tauranga.
The AERMOD dispersion modeling platform was used to simulate ship, single stack, and
multiple stack scenarios treated at a maximum treatment rate scaled based on the running 24
hour temperature based application rate values for China and India (each country had different
application rates as a function of temperature). For the multiple stack scenarios, ship fumigation
(2 ships per month assumed) was added to the fumigation of the on-land multiple stack scenario.
One hour and 24 hour averages of Methyl Bromide concentrations were computed as a function
of distance. Based on the emissions assessment modeled in this analysis, airborne concentrations
beyond 20 meters would be expected to be lower than shown in the summary tables (Tables 8-
11) in this report.
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2.0 SCOPE OF ASSIGNMENT
AERMOD is widely used throughout the U.S. and is globally recognized as a suitable tool for
fumigant emissions modeling. AERMOD contains advanced algorithms to represent transport
and dispersion conditions. These include mixed-layer scaling to refine modeling treatments
during unstable afternoon conditions, and advanced treatments for area sources, terrain effects,
and other special case factors.
AERMOD is well-suited to modeling Methyl Bromide emissions because the scale of analysis is
well within the applicability of the model, i.e. a modeling domain of less than 50 km. The model
has been prepared using an emission rate sequence to model airborne concentrations of Methyl
Bromide likely to be encountered during the fumigation of log stacks and ship fumigation.
Model input account for the hourly variable emissions rates applicable to India and China. To
model the ship emissions, we used the specifications of a typical vessel carrying logs from New
Zealand. A total volume of 45,000 cubic meters (across 5 holds) holding a total of 25,974 JAS
cubic meters of logs was assumed.
The operating constraints at the Port of Tauranga require fumigators to operate between 7:00
A.M. and 7:00 P.M. These constraints were used as modeling assumptions in this analysis. The
operating restrictions are designed to minimize the impact of potential atmospheric inversion
conditions.
3.0 METHODOLOGY
Section 3 describes the methodology used to conduct this assessment.
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3.1 Fumigation Emissions
Note that to maintain consistent 24-hour cycles; the modeling was conducted with a 23 hour
fumigation cycle, followed by ventilation at hour 24. This simplified the treatments within a
single 24-hour cycle and would not be expected to produce any significant differences in the
final results. Fumigation operating hours at the Port of Tauranga and meteorological data (1-
hour increments) were input into the model for on-land / ship fumigation. The hourly emission
file treatment in AERMOD allowed for a more realistic consideration of the variable start times
within the operational window of 7:00 A.M. to 7:00 P.M. through the input of an hourly file for
the five-year input data sets for the model runs.
Emission rates were determined by research conducted by Dr. Ajwa (Ajwa, H. Tarp
permeability testing for Methyl Bromide, Ajwa Analytical laboratories December 2017. )
involving Methyl Bromide flux chamber research. The computation of the emission rate during
fumigation was based on first multiplying the delta concentration (µg/ml) in the receiving
chamber as a function of time by the volume of the receiving chamber in ml. The micrograms
gained were then divided by the area of the permeable surface in square meters (0.0193 m2) and
divided by the number of seconds associated with each time step. The worksheet calculations for
the 120 g/m3 application rate are shown in Table 1 (for China) and the excel calculations used to
determine the emission rates for China are shown in Table 2. The worksheet calculations for the
72 g/m3 application rate are shown in Table 3 (for India) and the excel calculations used to
determine the emission rates for India are shown in Table 4. Note that during hours where data
were unavailable, the flux rate from the previous hour where data were available was used; e.g.
elapsed hour 3 used the flux rate for elapsed hour 2. Dr. Ajwas research was used to determine
the emissions during fumigation; however an alternative approach (Hall et. al., 2017) was used to
determine emissions during ventilation since Dr. Ajwas’ research did not account for ventilation.
Tables 1 and 3 show the maximum flux values that were scaled down based on the temperature
scalers for each country.
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Table 1. Calculation Worksheet for Computing Flux (µg/m2/sec) for the 120 g/m
3 Application Rate (China)
Table 2. Calculations Used to Determine Flux in Table 1 for China
China (120 g/m3)
volume (ml) elapsed hrs. Cell 1 Sink Cell 2 Sink average gain (g/ml) elapsed seconds ug gained FLUX (ug/m2/sec)
920 0 0 0 =+MEDIAN(P3:Q3)
area (m2) 0.5 1.19 2.38 =+MEDIAN(P4:Q4) =+R4-R3 =+(O4-O3)*60*60 =S4*$N$3 =+U4/($N$5)/T4
0.0193593 1 Weighted Average of .5 hrs and 2 hrs -> 41.9
C_init. ug/ml 2 4.76 5.95 =+MEDIAN(P6:Q6) =+R6-R4 =+(O6-O4)*60*60 =S6*$N$3 =+U6/($N$5)/T6
119 4 8.33 8.33 =+MEDIAN(P7:Q7) =+R7-R6 =+(O7-O6)*60*60 =S7*$N$3 =+U7/($N$5)/T7
20 28.56 33.32 =+MEDIAN(P8:Q8) =+R8-R7 =+(O8-O7)*60*60 =S8*$N$3 =+U8/($N$5)/T8
ventilation - > 24 27777.7777777778
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Table 3. Calculation Worksheet for Computing Flux (µg/m2/sec) for the 72 g/m3 Application Rate (India)
Table 4. Calculations Used to Determine Flux in Table 3 for India
India (72 g/m^3)
volume (ml)
elapsed
hrs Cell 1 Sink Cell 2 Sink average
gain
(g/ml) elapsed seconds
ug
gained FLUX (ug/m2/sec)
920 0 0
=+MEDIAN(C3:
D3)
area (m2) 0.5
=+$A$7*(1/100
)
=+$A$7*(2/100
)
=+MEDIAN(C4:
D4) =+E4-E3 =+(B4-B3)*60*60
=+F4*$A
$3 =+H4/($A$5)/G4
0.01935927932958
37 1
Weighted Average of .5 hrs and 2
hrs -> =((2*I4)+(I6))/3
C_init. ug/ml 2
=+$A$7*(4/100
)
=+$A$7*(5/100
)
=+MEDIAN(C6:
D6) =+E6-E4 =+(B6-B4)*60*60
=+F6*$A
$3 =+H6/($A$5)/G6
119 4
=+$A$7*(7/100
)
=+$A$7*(7/100
)
=+MEDIAN(C7:
D7) =+E7-E6 =+(B7-B6)*60*60
=+F7*$A
$3 =+H7/($A$5)/G7
20 =+$A$7*(24/100)
=+$A$7*(28/100)
=+MEDIAN(C8:D8) =+E8-E7 =+(B8-B7)*60*60
=+F8*$A$3 =+H8/(A5)/G8
ventilation - > 24
=+(72/2)*1000000*(500)/3600/
300
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3.2 Ventilation Emissions
The determination of the emissions occurring at ventilation take into account Methyl Bromide
absorption by Pinus radiata logs during fumigation. The emission rate for the ventilation period
was based on laboratory modeling that included consideration of absorption of Methyl Bromide
by logs. It was assumed that 50 percent of the product is remaining at the time of ventilation
(Hall et. al, 2017). It was assumed that the concentration was associated with a 500 m3 air space
(very conservative assumption because the expected volume of air would be substantially lower
than this value) and all of the emissions are lost in the first hour of ventilation. By multiplying
the residual (endpoint) concentration times the conservative representation of air space and
dividing by the (area x 3600 seconds) the ventilation emission rate was conservatively
represented. This emission rate was used as a conservative representation that could be refined
as necessary in the future. The maximum calculated flux during ventilation was computed as
follows:
Equation 1. Ventilation flux Calculation for India:
[72
𝑔𝑚3
2 𝑔
𝑚3 ] [1
𝑔
𝑚3 𝑥 106
µ𝑔
𝑔𝑥 500 𝑚3] /300 𝑚2/ 3,600
𝑠𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑟 = 16666.7
µ𝑔
𝑚2 𝑠𝑒𝑐
Equation 2. Ventilation flux Calculation for China:
[120
𝑔𝑚3
2 𝑔
𝑚3 ] [1
𝑔
𝑚3 𝑥 106
µ𝑔
𝑔𝑥 500 𝑚3] /300 𝑚2/ 3,600
𝑠𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑟 = 27777.8
µ𝑔
𝑚2 𝑠𝑒𝑐
Emissions for each hour were assessed based on a running 24 hour average of the temperature
and associated emission rates by using a scaling file for all of the hours modeled (one for India
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and one for China). These files were incorporated into the AERMOD modeling runs. An
example of this scaling file (day 1 of 5 years of data) is shown in Table 5.
Table 5. Emission Rates Scaling Worksheet Example
YEAR MONTH DAY HOUR TEMP
24-
HR
CONCENTRATION
CHINA
CONCENTRATION
INDIA
12 1 1 1 292.6 20.7 0.53 0.32
12 1 1 2 292.6 20.7 0.53 0.32
12 1 1 3 292.6 20.6 0.53 0.32
12 1 1 4 292.6 20.4 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 5 292.5 20.3 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 6 292.6 20.2 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 7 293.1 20.1 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 8 293.7 20.0 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 9 294.4 19.9 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 10 295.0 19.9 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 11 295.7 20.0 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 12 295.1 20.1 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 13 296.0 20.2 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 14 296.2 20.3 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 15 296.2 20.3 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 16 295.9 20.2 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 17 294.9 20.1 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 18 294.4 20.0 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 19 293.6 20.0 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 20 293.3 20.0 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 21 293.1 19.9 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 22 293.0 19.9 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 23 292.3 19.9 0.53 0.37
12 1 1 24 291.6 19.8 0.53 0.37
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3.3 Meteorological Data
A review of the meteorological data for Tauranga Airport for the most recent five-year period
(2012-2016) determined that the data only accounted for 53 percent of the critical data
parameters (see Figure 1) required to develop a robust model. Since meteorological data
covering a 24 hour period is needed, we concluded that the meteorological data for the Tauranga
airport was unsuitable for use in this analysis.
Figure 1. Data Availability at Tauranga Airport 1
.
1 http://dpds.weatheronline.co.uk/historical_data/weather_stations_download/#forward
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Consequently, we have used five years of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) data (2012-
2016) to provide the cover required to develop a representative model. (Refer Appendix A for
further details on the WRF data, which were purchased from Lakes Environmental). The data
were processed into a pseudo meteorological tower 2 for the region of the port. A pseudo 10 m
tower was established from the three dimensional wind fields on an hour-by-hour basis (24
hours/day) based on WRF data. The location of the pseudo tower was placed at the mid-point of
the stacks shown near the Port of Tauranga log wharves as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Location of Pseudo Meteorological Tower at Tauranga Port where logs
fumigation are currently conducted
2 A pseudo meteorological tower is based on three-dimensional WRF gridded meteorological data as subsequently
described. Data are then extracted specific to the location of interest (in this case the Tauranga Port) and the height
of interest (set to 10 m standard).
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Table 6 (provided by Lakes Environmental Software Met Data Services) summarizes the WRF
meteorological data used in this modeling analysis. Table 7 provides a list and description of the
meteorological files.
Table 6. AERMET-Ready Met Data Generated by WRF and MMIF (June 20, 2017)
Met Data Order Information: Order No. MET1710361
Ordered by Dennis Hlinka
Company Sullivan Environmental Consulting,
Inc.
Met Data Type AERMET-Ready WRF-MMIF
(Surface & Upper Air Met Data)
Start-End Date Jan 01, 2012 hour 00 - Dec 31, 2016
hour 23
Center Latitude 37.65936 S
Center Longitude 176.1825 E
WRF Grid Cell 4 km x 4 km
Datum WGS 84
Site Time Zone UTC/GMT UTC + 12 hour(s)
Closest City & Country Tauranga - New Zealand
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Table 7. List of Meteorological Files
The table below contains a
description of the files that you
are receiving with your met
order. These files were
produced by running the WRF
prognostic model and then
using the US EPA Mesoscale
Model Interface Program
(MMIF) to generate the
following files: #
File Name Description
1 MET1710361_AERMET_201
2-2016.IN1 AERMET Stage 1 Input File
2 MET1710361_AERMET_201
2-2016.IN2 AERMET Stage 2 Input File
3 MET1710361_AERMET_201
2-2016.IN3 AERMET Stage 3 Input File
4 MET1710361_AERMET_201
2-2016.DAT Onsite Surface Met File
5 MET1710361_AERMET_201
2-2016.FSL FSL Upper Air Met File
Figure 3 presents a wind rose produced from the WRF meteorological data provided by Lakes
Environmental Software Met Data Services.
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Figure 3. Wind Rose for Tauranga Port Based on WRF Data
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3.4 Dispersion Modeling
For this application, the AERMOD feature of accepting hourly emission files was used to
account for the random start times of the fumigation activities at the port and to limit the
fumigation start times to within the operating hours of 7:00 A.M. to 7:00 P.M. The model was
populated with WRF 3 generated hourly meteorological data (24 hours for 5 years) representative
of the port. All model input files, output files, FORTRAN processing programs, and Excel
spreadsheets used in computations are available upon request.
For the multiple stack scenario modeling simulations, the fumigation start times for the three
blocks of 10 stacks each were independently determined using Monte Carlo methods. The
number of stack sets per day was also randomly identified as 1 stack set (10 stacks), 2 stack sets
(20 stacks), or 3 stack sets (30 stacks). Once a stack set was initiated, the fumigations were
assumed to proceed with two stacks being fumigated per hour, i.e. five subareas as shown in
Figure 4 for each of the three stack sets.
For the ship scenarios, it was assumed that statistically two times per month ship fumigation took
place at the dock with start time restrictions for the same as for the on-land scenarios. These
start times were selected based on comparable Monte Carlo methods as used for the on-land log
sets.
3 Refer to Appendix A for a description of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) data.
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Term Input / Approach
Model U.S. EPA dispersion model AERMOD
Meteorological
data Five years of WRF-generated 10 m pseudo tower data
Emissions during
fumigation
Ajwa 2017 Analytical Laboratories tarp permeability study 150 g/m3
scenario
Emissions during
ventilation
Hall et al 2017 determined the Methyl Bromide end point concentrations for
the three treatment rates following hour 24 fumigations. These results were
used in the modeling as the Methyl Bromide concentration under the
tarpaulin at the start of venting.
Assumed days 10
stack sets
60 % (Number of stack fumigation per day at Tauranga Port depends upon
the availability of timber, logs price, demand from importing countries etc.)
Assumed days 20
stack sets
30% (Number of stack fumigation per day at Tauranga Port depends upon
the availability of timber, logs price, demand from importing countries etc.)
Assumed days 30
stacks sets
10% (Number of stack fumigation per day at Tauranga Port depends upon
the availability of timber, logs price, demand from importing countries etc.)
Basis to assign #
stacks Random each day for each of the 3, 10-stack clusters
Basis for daily
emissions Hourly emission file option in AERMOD
Ship fumigation 2 times/month
3.4.1 Single-Source Runs
Single-source runs start times during operating hours were determined using Monte Carlo. The
hourly emission rates based on the temperature scalers (see Table 5 for an example of these
scalers) were then used. Each analysis was based on 200 simulated years (i.e. 40 passes through
the five year data set representative of the port). The stacks modeled were each 60 m long x 5 m
wide x 2.5 m high i.e. 750 m3 which is slightly larger than the average stack size. The sources
were modeled as area sources with initial dispersion associated with the 2.5 m height of the
sources. The AERMOD output was post-processed using FORTRAN programming to show the
90th
and 95th
percentiles for the 1-hour and 24-hour averaging periods.
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Dispersion rates at the port are considered to be more consistent with urban applications (i.e.
higher dispersion rates) when compared with rural settings because of the cement / asphalt
surface and numerous support buildings found on the port site.
3.4.2 Multiple-Source Runs
A comparable approach to Section 3.4.1 was used for the multiple stack runs. Monte Carlo
methods also were employed to define the application start times within the operating hours for
this scenario. It was assumed that:
1. 60 percent of the days had one co-located set of 10 stacks, randomly selected among
the three stack sets, with each stack separated by 1 m spacing, and start times
randomly selected within the period of 7:00 A.M. to 7:00 P.M. (which also applies to
the other two scenarios that follow).
2. For 30 percent of the days it was randomly assumed that two sets of 10 stack groups
each were fumigated during the day, i.e. two of the three source areas were randomly
selected as the sources, i.e. a total of 20 stacks with start times randomly selected
within the period of 7:00 A.M. to 7:00 P.M.; and,
3. 10 percent of the days it was randomly assumed that three sets of 10 stacks each were
treated during the same day. The model assumed that each stack was fumigated at
randomly selected start times within the period of 7:00 A.M. to 7:00 P.M.
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4. The placement of the stacks and the receptors (locations where the model estimated
atmospheric concentrations) for the multiple stack analyses is shown in Figure 5. The
blue boxes represent the stacks being fumigated (sources) while the red boxes
represent the receptor placement used in the model. In the multiple source runs it was
assumed that when a block of 10 stacks was modeled based on Monte Carlo selection
that two stacks per hour would be fumigated in sequence; i.e. over a five hour period
all ten stacks would be fumigated. For 20 stacks fumigation, four stacks per hour
would be fumigated in sequence. For 30 stacks fumigation, six stacks per hour would
be fumigated in sequence. Figures 4 and 5 describe the modeling layout. In Figure 4,
the log piles are identified by the blue piles and the red dots are the receptors. In
Figure 5, the blue rectangles resemble the log piles (with the exception of the
rectangle on the left which represents the ship).
3.4.3 Ship Emissions
On a Monte Carlo basis, emissions for ship fumigation were assumed to occur two times per
month. The ships were modeled with four equal size cargo bay hold areas comprising total
cargo area of 2,376 m2, with four stacks/vents per modeled cargo hold. Each stack was set to 1
meter height, representing the minimum height of the ship deck above grade during low tide.
EPA’s BPIP model was used to define building downwash parameters for each of these stacks
relative to the ship dimensions. The smaller rectangle inside the larger rectangle in Figure 5
represents the superstructure of the ship (which was included in the building downwash
assessment). Building downwash was included in the modeling of the stacks to properly account
for the expected additional dispersion due to the ships’ super structure. The presence of the ship
and its superstructure disturbs the wind flow pattern, particularly downwind of the structure. In
order to properly account for this disturbance in the wind flow and the resulting increased
dispersion and downwash of pollutants in the modeling, the AERMOD model includes a
Building Profile Input Program (BPIP). This BPIP module can only be used when only
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modeling with stacks/vents within the AERMOD model. In order to properly address these
expected structure downwash effects, the five cargo bays were represented and modeled as four
stacks with heights set at the same height as the deck of the ship with very low exit velocity
(0.0006 m/sec) and a width of 1 meter each were established. The BPIP estimates the ship
dimensions for every 10 degrees around the compass, which helps define the expected increased
dispersion of the emission plumes downwind of the ship.
Figure 4. Stack and Receptor Placement for Multiple Log Pile Fumigation Modeling
Relative “x” axis (m)
Rel
ativ
e “y”
axis
(m
)
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Figure 5. Stack and Receptor Placement for Ship and Multiple Log Pile Fumigation
Modeling
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3.4.3 Ship Only Scenarios
We modeled the 4 cargo bay areas with the sixteen tacks/vents (4 stacks per cargo bay). The
modeled ship dimensions were 30 meters by 180 meters. The heights of the stacks were set to 1
meter above grade based on the minimums height at low tide relative to dock height. We
considered building downwash based on the ships dimensions including ship height to more
accurately define the dispersion of the emissions downwind from the ship.
3.4.4 Multiple Land-based Log Pile Stacks and Ship Scenarios
We integrated the ship emissions within the original land based log piles emissions into a
common scenario.
4.0 RESULTS
Table 8 provides the maximum modeling results 20 m downwind of the source for land based
pile sources based on the 90th and 95th percentile results for both 1 and 24 hour time periods.
All 90th
and 95th
percentile 1 hour and 24-hour results were less than 1 ppm for all application
rates. Table 9 provides the maximum downwind methyl bromide concentrations (ppm) at 20 m
from both ship and land-based log pile sources based on the 90th and 95th percentile
concentrations. Tables 10 and 11 provide comparisons between India and China in terms of
maximum modeled concentrations. Table 10 provides the maximum downwind 24-hour methyl
bromide concentrations (ppm) at 20 m from both ship and land-based log pile sources based on
the 90th percentile concentrations. Table 11 provides the same comparison as Table 10, however
provides the results based on the 95th
percentile concentrations.
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The ship based modeled concentrations accounted for the volume of logs in the ship and these
modeling results were scaled using linear scaling4 to account for the total space in the hold of the
ship. The emission isopleths for the log volume only excluding the total space in the ships’
storage holds can be found in Appendix D. All model results for all receptors show 90th
and 95th
percentile concentrations less than 1 ppm. Isopleth analyses showing the spatial variation in
concentrations for the various model runs are available in Appendix B (China emissions) and
Appendix C (India emissions). As a point of comparison, Appendix E presents results assuming
various percent recovery of methyl bromide during ventilation (assuming 80%, 90%, and 95%
recovery).
4 45,000 m
3 (total space in ship’s storage hold) / 25,974 m
3 (modeled wood emissions) = 1.732 (conservative) scale
up factor to account for total area in the ships’ hold. This factor was applied to accurately represent total emissions
from the ship including all space in the fumigated areas and was applied to the total emissions.
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Table 8. Maximum Downwind Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) at 20 m From
Land-Based Log Pile Sources Based on the 90th
and 95th
Percentile Concentrations
Emissions
Scenario
Percentile
Single Source Multiple Sources
1-hour 24-hours 1-hour 24-hours
China 90th
.005 .120 .015 .380
India 90th
.005 .070 .015 .220
China 95th
.008 .210 .041 .700
India 95th
.008 .130 .040 .420
Table 9. Maximum Downwind Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) at 20 m From Both
Ship and Land-Based Log Pile Sources Based on the 90th
and 95th
Percentile
Concentrations
Emissions
Scenario
Percentile
Ship Only Source Combined Ship and
Land-Based Sources
1-hour 24-hours 1-hour 24-hours
China 90th
5 .003 .017 .400
India 90th
.002 .017 .240
China 95th
.031 .050 .730
India 95th
.027 .043 .450
5 Ship only one hour runs are in still in progress.
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Table 10. Maximum Downwind 24-hour Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) at 20 m
From Both Ship and Land-Based Log Pile Sources Based on the 90th
Percentile
Concentrations
Emission
Scenario
95%
Recovery
90%
Recovery
80%
Recovery
China 0.03 0.05 0.08
India 0.02 0.03 0.06
Table 11. Maximum Downwind 24-hour Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) at 20 m
From Both Ship and Land-Based Log Pile Sources Based on the 95th
Percentile
Concentrations
Emission
Scenario
95%
Recovery
90%
Recovery
80%
Recovery
China 0.05 0.08 0.15
India 0.03 0.05 0.10
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5.0 REFERENCES
Ajwa, H. Tarp permeability testing for Methyl Bromide, Ajwa Analytical laboratories December
2017.
Hall, M. , Najar Rodriguez, A. , Adlam, A. , Hall, A. and Brash, D. (2017), Sorption and
desorption characteristics of methyl bromide during and after fumigation of pine (Pinus radiata
D. Don) logs. Pest. Manag. Sci., 73: 874-879. doi:10.1002/ps.4355
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, AMS/EPA Regulatory Model AERMOD User’s Guide,
EPA-454/B-03-001, September 2004 (with updates)
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6.0 APPENDICES
APPENDIX A: WRF DATA DESCRIPTION 6
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation mesoscale numerical
weather prediction system designed for both atmospheric research and operational forecasting
needs. It features two dynamical cores, a data assimilation system, and a software architecture
facilitating parallel computation and system extensibility. The model serves a wide range of
meteorological applications across scales from tens of meters to thousands of kilometers. The
effort to develop WRF began in the latter part of the 1990's and was a collaborative partnership
principally among the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (represented by the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) and the (then) Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL)), the Air Force Weather
Agency (AFWA), the Naval Research Laboratory, the University of Oklahoma, and the Federal
Aviation Administration (FAA).
WRF can generate atmospheric simulations using real data (observations, analyses) or idealized
conditions. WRF offers operational forecasting a flexible and computationally-efficient
platform, while providing recent advances in physics, numerics, and data assimilation
contributed by developers across the very broad research community. WRF is currently in
operational use at NCEP, AFWA, and other centers.
WRF has a large worldwide community of registered users (over 30,000 in over 150 countries),
and workshops and tutorials are held each year at NCAR. The WRF system contains two
dynamical solvers, referred to as the ARW (Advanced Research WRF) core and the NMM
(Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) core. The ARW has been largely developed and maintained
by the MMM Laboratory, and its users' page is: WRF-ARW Users' Page. The NMM core was
6 (extracted from http://www.wrf-model.org/index.php)
http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/
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developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. It is currently used in the
HWRF (Hurricane WRF) system, for which user support is provided by the Developmental
Testbed Center (see WRF for Hurricanes.)
This site (wrf-model.org) provides general information on the WRF model and its organization
and offers links to WRF users' pages, real-time applications, and WRF announcements.
However, for detailed information on the content, use, and updates of the modeling system, and
for all code downloads and documentation, users should visit the WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM
home pages (see above).
http://www.dtcenter.org/HurrWRF/users/index.php
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APPENDIX B: ISOPLETH ANALYSES (CHINA)
The following figures show the concentrations of methyl bromide using the country specific
(China) 24 hour running average temperature scalers.
Matrix of Model Runs for Single Source Scenarios
Figure # Averaging Time Dispersion Mode Percentile
B-1 1-hour Urban 90th
B-2 1-hour Urban 95th
B-3 24-hour Urban 90th
B-4 24-hour Urban 95th
Matrix of Model Runs for Multiple Source Scenarios
Figure # Averaging Time Dispersion Mode Percentile
B-5 1-hour Urban 90th
B-6 1-hour Urban 95th
B-7 24-hour Urban 90th
B-8 24-hour Urban 95th
Matrix of Model Runs for Ship Only Scenarios
Figure # Averaging Time Dispersion Mode Percentile
B-9 24-hour Urban 90th
B-10 24-hour Urban 95th
Matrix of Model Runs for Multiple Source Scenarios and Ship Emissions (combined)
Figure # Averaging Time Dispersion Mode Percentile
B-13 24-hour Urban 90th
B-14 24-hour Urban 95th
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Figure B-1. 90th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure B-2. 95th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure B-3. 90th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure B-4. 95th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure B-5. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Multiple
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure B-6. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Multiple
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure B-7. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Land-Based Source Run
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Figure B-8. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Land-Based Source Run
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Figure B-9. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run (Adjusted to 45,000 m3 Volume)
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Figure B-10. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run (Adjusted to 45,000 m3 Volume)
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Figure B-13. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run
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Figure B-14. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run
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APPENDIX C: ISOPLETH ANALYSES (INDIA)
The following figures show the concentrations of methyl bromide using the country specific
(India) 24 hour running average temperature scalers.
Matrix of Model Runs for Single Source Scenarios
Figure # Averaging Time Dispersion Mode Percentile
C-1 1-hour Urban 90th
C-2 1-hour Urban 95th
C-3 24-hour Urban 90th
C-4 24-hour Urban 95th
Matrix of Model Runs for Multiple Source Scenarios
Figure # Averaging Time Dispersion Mode Percentile
C-5 1-hour Urban 90th
C-6 1-hour Urban 95th
C-7 24-hour Urban 90th
C-8 24-hour Urban 95th
Matrix of Model Runs for Ship Only Scenarios
Figure # Averaging Time Dispersion Mode Percentile
C-9 24-hour Urban 90th
C-10 24-hour Urban 95th
Matrix of Model Runs for Multiple Source Scenarios and Ship Emissions (combined)
Figure # Averaging Time Dispersion Mode Percentile
C-13 24-hour Urban 90th
C-14 24-hour Urban 95th
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Figure C-1. 90th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure C-2. 95th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure C-3. 90th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure C-4. 95th
Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Single
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure C-5. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Multiple
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure C-6. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 1-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Multiple
Land-Based Source Run
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Figure C-7. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Land-Based Source Run
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Figure C-8. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Land-Based Source Run
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Figure C-9. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run (Adjusted to 45,000 m3 Volume)
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Figure C-10. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run
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Figure C-13. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run
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Figure C-14. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run
-
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APPENDIX D. SHIP MODELING RESULTS PRIOR TO SCALING
Matrix of Model Runs
Figure # Averaging Time Country Percentile
D-1 24-hour China 90
D-2 24-hour China 95
D-3 24-hour India 90
D-4 24-hour India 95
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Figure D-1. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run
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Figure D-2. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run
-
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Figure D-3. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run
-
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Figure D-4. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions Ship
Only Run
-
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APPENDIX E – RECOVERY ISOPLETH ANALYSES (CHINA AND INDIA)
Matrix of Model Runs
Figure # Averaging Time Dispersion Mode Percentile Recovery % Country
B-11 24-hour Urban 90th
95 China
B-11.1 24-hour Urban 90th
90 China
B-11.2 24-hour Urban 90th
80 China
B-12 24-hour Urban 95th 95 China
B-12.1 24-hour Urban 95th 90 China
B-12.2 24-hour Urban 95th 80 China
Figure # Averaging Time Dispersion Mode Percentile Recovery % Country
C-11 24-hour Urban 90th
95 India
C-11.1 24-hour Urban 90th
90 India
C-11.2 24-hour Urban 90th
80 India
C-12 24-hour Urban 95th 95 India
C-12.1 24-hour Urban 95th 90 India
C-12.2 24-hour Urban 95th 80 India
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Figure B-11. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 95% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions
-
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Figure B-11.1 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 90% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions
-
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Figure B-11.2 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 80% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions
-
Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc. Methyl Bromide AERMOD Modeling Assessment
1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580 Page 68 of 76
Figure B-12. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 95% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions
-
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1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580 Page 69 of 76
Figure B12.1 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 90% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions
-
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1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580 Page 70 of 76
Figure B12.2 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For China
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 80% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions
-
Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc. Methyl Bromide AERMOD Modeling Assessment
1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580 Page 71 of 76
Figure C-11. 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run Using 95% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions
-
Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc. Methyl Bromide AERMOD Modeling Assessment
1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580 Page 72 of 76
Figure C-11.1 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 90% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions
-
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1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580 Page 73 of 76
Figure C-11.2 90th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run - Using 80% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions
-
Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc. Methyl Bromide AERMOD Modeling Assessment
1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580 Page 74 of 76
Figure C-12. 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run Using 95% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions
-
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1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580 Page 75 of 76
Figure C-12.1 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run Using 90% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions
-
Sullivan Environmental Consulting, Inc. Methyl Bromide AERMOD Modeling Assessment
1900 Elkin Street, Suite 200, Alexandria, VA 22308 703-780-4580 Page 76 of 76
Figure C-12.2 95th Percentile Airborne Methyl Bromide Concentrations (ppm) For India
Emissions Scenario Based on 24-Hour Averaging and Urban Dispersion Conditions
Multiple Source (Land-Based plus Ship) Run Using 80% Recovery of Ventilation
Emissions