Air OperationsAir OperationsBranch Director CourseBranch Director Course

Safety Part 2Safety Part 2Risk ManagementRisk Management

U.S. AIR FORCE AUXILIARY

U.S. AIR FORCE AUXILIARY

OverviewOverview

Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management Methodology

Safety IssuesSafety Issues

Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management MethodologyOverviewOverview

TerminologyTerminology

ProcessProcess

WorksheetWorksheet

PrinciplesPrinciples

Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management MethodologyTermsTerms

Risk: The probability during a period of Risk: The probability during a period of activity that a hazard (potential for activity that a hazard (potential for accident or adverse event) will result in a accident or adverse event) will result in a loss with definable consequencesloss with definable consequences– This idea can be used beyond the realm of This idea can be used beyond the realm of

safety – there may be risks to effectiveness, safety – there may be risks to effectiveness, legal risks, etc.legal risks, etc.

Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management MethodologyTerminologyTerminology

Risk Assessment: The process of Risk Assessment: The process of anticipating or detecting hazards and anticipating or detecting hazards and systematically assessing their overall risk systematically assessing their overall risk levellevel– Likelihood:Likelihood:

How likely is How likely is the risk?the risk?

– Impact:Impact: How serious is How serious is the consequence?the consequence?

impact

likelihood

High risk

Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management MethodologyTerminologyTerminology

Risk Management: The practice of Risk Management: The practice of actively seeking to identify risks and actively seeking to identify risks and consciously choosing strategies to deal consciously choosing strategies to deal with those risks before they happen. with those risks before they happen.

Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management MethodologyTerminologyTerminology

Strategies -Strategies -– Mitigate:Mitigate: alter plan to reduce risk level alter plan to reduce risk level

Reduce impact and/or likelihoodReduce impact and/or likelihoodMay include “contingency plans”May include “contingency plans”

– Avoid:Avoid: stop plan or take a course that stop plan or take a course that fundamentally eliminates the riskfundamentally eliminates the risk

– Accept:Accept: decide that, in balance, the risk is decide that, in balance, the risk is acceptable acceptable

careful! Use this only when risk level is very low or careful! Use this only when risk level is very low or need is extremely highneed is extremely high

Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management Methodology5 Step Risk Management Process5 Step Risk Management Process

Plan the activityPlan the activity

Identify and assess the riskIdentify and assess the risk

Weigh risk potential vs. needWeigh risk potential vs. need– Accept/Stop/Alter plans based on risksAccept/Stop/Alter plans based on risks

Implement the planImplement the plan

Monitor, evaluate and learnMonitor, evaluate and learn

Risk Management WorksheetRisk Management Worksheet

Projected RiskProjected Risk

Associated RiskAssociated Risk LevelLevel

Action TakenAction TakenLowLow MidMid HighHigh

Risk ManagementRisk ManagementPrinciplesPrinciples

This is not a theoretical exercise!This is not a theoretical exercise!Get everyone involvedGet everyone involvedAssessment must be made as early as Assessment must be made as early as possible so that decision can be made and possible so that decision can be made and action alteredaction alteredSubordinates must Subordinates must communicatecommunicate risk risk identification immediately for it to be usefulidentification immediately for it to be usefulRisk identification and assessment after Risk identification and assessment after the fact does nothing to manage riskthe fact does nothing to manage risk

Risk Identification TechniquesRisk Identification Techniques

Risk identification checklistsRisk identification checklistssearch for pre-identified, generic riskssearch for pre-identified, generic risksCAPR 60-3 Attachment 3CAPR 60-3 Attachment 3

Decision driver analysisDecision driver analysisstudy how decisions were made, searching for common study how decisions were made, searching for common

erroneous patterns (examples: avoiding outside help, erroneous patterns (examples: avoiding outside help, politics, tunnel vision)politics, tunnel vision)

Assumption analysisAssumption analysisstudy underlying assumptions, consider Murphy’s law study underlying assumptions, consider Murphy’s law

DecompositionDecompositionbreak problem into smaller pieces; look for undiscovered break problem into smaller pieces; look for undiscovered

issuesissues

Risk Management ChecklistRisk Management ChecklistCAPR 60-3 Attachment 3CAPR 60-3 Attachment 3

Example checklist question categoriesExample checklist question categoriesHow much experience does the mission staff How much experience does the mission staff have?have?Does the current communications system in place Does the current communications system in place adequately meet your needs?adequately meet your needs?What kind of weather are aircrews operating in?What kind of weather are aircrews operating in?Have aircrews been adequately briefed so that Have aircrews been adequately briefed so that they can effectively and safely complete their they can effectively and safely complete their assigned tasks?assigned tasks?What is the overall condition of the vehicles being What is the overall condition of the vehicles being used on the mission?used on the mission?

Events or Observations Often Call For Events or Observations Often Call For Immediate CommunicationImmediate Communication

Each individual should communicate Each individual should communicate important safety information to his/her important safety information to his/her supervisor in a timely mannersupervisor in a timely mannerEach person and supervisor should Each person and supervisor should consider who else would benefit from consider who else would benefit from information about the event or observationinformation about the event or observation– A sortie should call mission base by radio and A sortie should call mission base by radio and

pass information immediately when that pass information immediately when that information would benefit other sortiesinformation would benefit other sorties

Example Issues Requiring Example Issues Requiring Immediate CommunicationImmediate Communication

Hazardous or significant Hazardous or significant weather change observed weather change observed

Unexpected military air Unexpected military air operations observedoperations observed

Criminal activity observedCriminal activity observed– In some circumstances In some circumstances

communication might be communication might be delayed, if that is deemed delayed, if that is deemed the safer course of actionthe safer course of action

Mitigation Strategies:Mitigation Strategies:Three General Ways of Reducing RiskThree General Ways of Reducing Risk

Engineering control Engineering control

Process control Process control

Communication/training control Communication/training control

Mitigation Strategies:Mitigation Strategies:Three General Ways of Reducing RiskThree General Ways of Reducing Risk

Engineering control Engineering control – making a physical change to the – making a physical change to the environment or using specific toolsenvironment or using specific tools

Examples: Examples:

Taping down a loose extension cordTaping down a loose extension cord

Setting up a warning sign or perimeter tapeSetting up a warning sign or perimeter tape

Wearing orange safety vests in the woodsWearing orange safety vests in the woods

Arranging for hand-washing facilities along Arranging for hand-washing facilities along with sanitary facilities.with sanitary facilities.

Equipping ground teams with BBP exposure Equipping ground teams with BBP exposure control kitscontrol kits

Mitigation Strategies:Mitigation Strategies:Three General Ways of Reducing RiskThree General Ways of Reducing Risk

Process control Process control – defining the way one works– defining the way one works

Examples: Examples:

Mission briefings and CAP Mission briefings and CAP flight releasesflight releases

Requiring period radio check-Requiring period radio check-insins

A pilot choosing to get flight-A pilot choosing to get flight-following from ATCfollowing from ATC

Mitigation Strategies:Mitigation Strategies:Three General Ways of Reducing RiskThree General Ways of Reducing Risk

Communication/training control Communication/training control – making individuals aware of a risk – making individuals aware of a risk and how to control it and how to control it

Examples: Examples:

Briefing aircrews on a specific risk on Briefing aircrews on a specific risk on a mission like radio towers in the a mission like radio towers in the search areasearch area

instructing ground teams to check instructing ground teams to check themselves for ticksthemselves for ticks

Questions?Questions?