air quality and energy: problem or opportunity?
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Air Quality and Energy: Problem or Opportunity?. NEDRI July 16, 2002. Ken Colburn Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management [email protected]. Simultaneous Economic Growth and Environmental Improvement . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Air Quality and Energy:Problem or Opportunity?
Ken ColburnNortheast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
NEDRIJuly 16, 2002
Sources: 1970 - 1999 emissions data is from the National Air Pollutant Emissions Trend Report, (EPA, March 2000). Projections for SO2 and NOx are derived from the Integrated Planning Model (IPM). GDP data through 2000 is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP projections follow EIA’s assumptions in AEO 2001 of 3% growth per year.
Simultaneous Economic Growth and Environmental Improvement
• Public Officials’ Job: Quality of Life• QOL =
- Healthy Bodies, - Healthy Economy, and - Healthy Ecosystems
• Increasingly, the interests of the environment and economic well-being are aligned…
• So, economic and environmental regulators need to “align” better as well.
Starting Point
Acid Deposition Levels in the United States
Source: US EPA
Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of NH Lakes and Remote Ponds
Sensitivity Category
ANC (mg/L)
Summer No. %
Winter No. %
Spring No. %
AAcciiddiiffiieedd < 0 21 3 19 3 6 10
CCrriittiiccaall > 0-2 134 18 141 19 26 46
EEnnddaannggeerreedd > 2-5 244 32 237 32 15 26
HHiigghhllyy SSeennssiittiivvee > 5-10 228 30 224 31 8 14
SSeennssiittiivvee > 10-20 98 13 80 11 2 4
NNoott SSeennssiittiivvee > 20 31 4 32 4 0 0
Total 756 100% 733 100% 57 100%
Source: DES
Atmospheric Deposition Estimates for Total Nitrogen, 1996
Source: US EPA
Impact of Ozone on White Pine Health as Measured by Red Edge Inflection Point (REIP)
Source: UNH Forest Watch
NH Forest Products Industry = $1.6 billion direct economic impact
annually…
Anthropogenic Mercury Deposition Rates in the United States
Source: USEPA, Mercury Study Report to Congress, December 1997.
NH Fishing Industry = $300 million annual economic impact…
Visibility Impairment in New Hampshire’s White Mountains:Mt. Jefferson photographed from AMC’s Camp Dodge at near
natural conditions (6 deciviews) and at 90+ percentile haze (28 deciviews)
Source: Appalachian Mountain Club
Tourism is NH’s 2nd largest industry, with $3.5 billion direct economic impact annually…
TemperatureChange in
New England 1985-1999
(Source: NERA, 2001)
Changes in Dominant Forest Types Under Two Climate Scenarios
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program
NEG-ECP Climate Commitment:
Why Should States Start? Our Actions Count!•1997 GHG Emissions:
– NESCAUM States > Canada, Korea, Italy, Mexico, Australia, Brazil,
France, Spain– New York > Taiwan, Venezuela– New England > Netherlands, Argentina– New Jersey > Egypt, Belgium, Algeria– Massachusetts > Greece, Austria, Denmark,
Kuwait, Norway, Sweden, Israel, Portugal
– Connecticut > Switzerland, Ireland, New Zealand, Peru
– Maine > Croatia, Estonia, Tunisia– New Hampshire > Lithuania, Jordan, Ivory Coast– Rhode Island > Bolivia, Jamaica, Panama, Kenya– Vermont > Paraguay, Tanzania, Iceland, Cyprus
Air pollution and climate change problems largely
share a common root:Energy…
… But can we address Energy without injuring the
Economy?
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Mw
08/06/2001 08/07/2001 08/08/2001 08/09/2001 08/10/2001
ISO-NE Load [source www.iso-ne.com]
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
$/M
wh
08/06/2001 08/07/2001 08/08/2001 08/09/2001 08/10/2001
Hourly Bids ISO-NE[source www.iso-ne.com]
Energy Reliability
• Demand-side investments (e.g., energy efficiency) are less expensive and more reliable than fixing weak links in the supply side (Generation, T&D):
– EE reduces environmental impact (e.g., fuel use, emissions, need to site new plants and T&D lines, and future environmental risk)
– EE enhances reliability of each link vs. having the “Next Weak Link” emerge
– EE load reductions follow load profile well, so they diminish peaks
– Slightly lower peaks produce substantial savings and avoid costly, little-used, supply-side upgrades
(Source: Efficient Reliability, Cowart/RAP, 2001)
Energy and National Security
• Energy Security is best served by:– Fewer vulnerable targets like centralized
fossil plants, nukes, dams, refineries, pipelines, and transmission facilities
– More distributed generation (DG)– Less imported oil– More energy efficiency, energy conservation
and Demand-Side Management (DSM)
• National Security better served by:– Above items– Greater multi-lateralism on all fronts
An Economic Sea Change is Underway
Energy
Environment
EconomyEconomyOld Paradigm:
Environment
Energy
EconomyEconomyNew Paradigm:
• ACEEE: Energy/GDP fell 42% from 1970-1999
• Global Business Competitiveness:– Power Quality & Reliability is more and more
important• Bank of Omaha example (chose fuel cells)
– Companies Need to Reduce Vulnerability to Price Shocks, Supply Disruptions, etc.
– Basis of Financial Performance and International Competitiveness is Changing (“Triple Bottom Line”)
– Economic Opportunity: “Who will own the patents?”
– Dollar cost savings that Energy Efficiency provides
• New England: High Electric Rates, but:– Low Poverty Rate, Unemployment Rate, etc.– High Growth in Jobs, Businesses, Per Capita
Income
Evidence of an Economic Sea Change
Per Capita Personal Income versus Utility Average Electricity Price for the 50 States and Washington, DC
(Data Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic AnalysisUS Energy Information Administration)
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Utility Average Electricity Price (cents/kWh, 1998)
Per
Cap
ita P
erso
nal I
ncom
e (1
998)
Green & Gold 2000 - Rankings of StatesData Source: Institute for Southern Studies, 2000
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5
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25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50Gold - Economic Ranking
Gree
n - E
nviro
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anki
ng
LowestRankedStates
HighestRankedStates
In an economy where physical assets are not as important as they used to be, where intellectual assets dominate, where business can be conducted from anywhere to anywhere, it would seem that place should not matter; in fact, it matters more. … Places – through the quality of life they offer – matter because entrepreneurs and highly skilled and sought-after workers want to live in areas with educational, cultural, natural and civic amenities.1 [emphasis added]
1 NetworkNH (a consortium of high tech companies), NH in the 21st Century, Competing in the New Economy, December 1, 2000, p. 16. See http://www.network.com
“Place” Matters More in the New Economy
ECO
NO
MIC
EFFI
CIE
NC
YLo
wer
Hig
her
TIME
Energy Efficiency Path(More reliable, moresecure, cleaner, more exportable)
Energy Intensity Path(Less reliable, less secure, less clean,
less exportable)
Competitive AdvantageLost to Delay
Now Later
Sustainability
Old or New Energy Path?