air quality forecast in santiago, chile pablo ulriksen and manuel merino centro nacional del medio...
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Air Quality Forecast in Santiago, Chile
Pablo Ulriksen and Manuel Merino
Centro Nacional del Medio Ambiente
Universidad de Chile
GURME Air Quality Forecasting WorkshopSantiago, Chile 13-16 October 2003
Air Pollution in Santiago
• Geographical location
• Meteorological conditions
• Urban population and activities
Geographical location
Los Andes-San Felipe
Hijuelas
Casablanca
Q uilapilun
Buin
G raneros
Q uinta de T ilcoco
San Pedro-Bucalem u
-72.0 -71.5 -71.0 -70.5 -70.0
-34.5
-34.0
-33.5
-33.0
-32.5
ENTE
LPLA
CHAD
CODI
LDOR
LPRA
MALLEMAN
LREI
PAIC
Santiago City Area
Climate
Santiago *
http://www.atmosfera.cl/
Anticyclon subsidence inversion
Fig. from R. Sanguineti, CONAMA
Surface Wind, Winter afternoon
-71.4 -71.2 -71.0 -70.8 -70.6 -70.4-34.0
-33.8
-33.6
-33.4
-33.2
-33.0
LPLAMALL
PIRQ
QUIL
LREI
EMAN
PAIC
POLP
LCAÑ
LTIL
LPIN
CODI
MPIN
PAIN
1 m/s
Viento promedio Mensual Julio 1999, 12:00 a 14:45 Hrs
Surface wind, Winter night
-71.4 -71.2 -71.0 -70.8 -70.6 -70.4-34.0
-33.8
-33.6
-33.4
-33.2
-33.0
LPLAMALL
PIRQ
QUIL
LREI
EMAN
PAIC
POLP
LCAÑ
LTIL
LPIN
CODI
MPIN
PAIN
1 m/s
Viento promedio Mensual Julio 1999, 03:00 a 05:45 Hrs
Santiago City Statistics
Metropolitan Region
• Population 6 038 974 (40% Country)
Santiago City
• Population 5 392 840
• Houses 1 473 735
• Daily trips ~ 8.8 million/day
• Vehicles ~ 950000 (56 % catalytic)
Santiago City Statistics
Labor Force Activities, Santiago Metropolitan Region, 2001• Agriculture 3.6 %
• Industry 17.2 %
• Construction 6.8 %
• Transport 8.1 %
• Commerce 21.2 %
• Finantial Services 12.0 %
• Social and Professional Services 30.2 %
• Mining 0.4 %
• Elec, Water, Gas 0.5 %
Air Quality Standards Exceedance during 1995
020406080
100120140160
Da
ys
TSP CO 1 h
O3PM10 CO 8 h
Air Quality in Santiago City
Maximum AQI values during 1995
Air
Qu
alit
y In
dex
PM10 O3 CO SO2 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Air Quality in Santiago City
PM10 Monthly Averages, Santiago, Chile, 1988-2002(Dicothomous Samplers)
40
80
120
160
200
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
PM
10 (
ug
/m3)
PM10 Daily Maximum Values, 2001Santiago, Chile (MACAM stations)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1-J
an
-01
1-F
eb
-01
1-M
ar-
01
1-A
pr-
01
1-M
ay-
01
1-J
un
-01
1-J
ul-
01
1-A
ug
-01
1-S
ep
-01
1-O
ct-0
1
1-N
ov-
01
1-D
ec-
01
Date
PM
10 (
ug
/Nm
3)
Air Quality Standard
Level 1 Alert
Level 2 Pre-Emergency
Promedios horarios mensuales de MP10TEOM-Estaciones Red MACAM, Julio - 1999
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Co
nce
ntr
aci
ón
g
/m3
Providencia
La Paz
La Florida
Las Condes
PO
Pudahuel
Cerrillos
El Bosque
PM10 Air Quality Standard and Episode Levels
PM10 Air Quality Standard (24 h period): 150 ug/m3N
Episode Levels related to PM10 24h concentrations:
Level 1 (Alert) 195-239 ug/m3
Level 2 (Pre-Emergency) 240-329 ug/m3
Nivel 3 (Emergency) 330 ug/m3 or higher
Definición de Índice de Calidad del Aire para Partículas ICAPy Niveles que definen condiciones de Episodio
Con
cen
trac
ión
MP
10 (
g/m
3 )
ICAP
400
300
200
100
100 200 300
Preemergencia
Emergencia( > 330 g/m3 )
500400
Alerta
Norma de Calidad (150 g/m3 )
Bueno a Regular
Meteorological Conditions Related to PM10 Episodes (J. Rutllant and R. Garreaud, 1995)
Episodes Type A (Anticyclonic conditions, Coastal Low)
Episodes Type BPF (Pre-Frontal Conditions)
Episodio Tipo AMapa de 500 hPa
Episodio Tipo AMapa de Superficie y Espesor 1000-500 hPa
Radiosondeo Quintero 17 Mayo 1998- 08 hora local-A
Temperatura y H.R. en Lo Prado
Episodio Tipo BPF Mapa de 500 hPa
Episodio Tipo BPFMapa de superficie y Espesor 1000-500 hPa
Quintero 08 Abril 1998- 08 hora local- BPF
Ocurrencia de episodios Tipo A y BPF (Abril-Sep 1997-2003)
37
18
25
15
24
12
26
10
25
4
29
8
29
12
0
10
20
30
40
NºD
ías
97 98 99 2000 2001 2002 2003
Años
Episodios Tipo A y BPF
Tipo A
Tipo BPF
Condiciones Meteorológicas y MP10
Epi
sodi
os
Alta
del
Pac
ífic
o
Ines
tabi
lidad
post
-fro
ntal
Act
ivid
ad
fron
tal
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
PM
-10
PR
OM
ED
IO
Epi
sodi
os
Tip
os A
y B
PF
Alta
del
Pac
ífic
o
Ines
tabi
lidad
post
-fro
ntal
Act
ivid
ad
fron
tal
Temperatura y H.R. en Lo Prado
Episodio Pudahuel 26 Junio 2001
Episodio 26 Junio 2001PMCA, concentraciones horarias MP10 e ICAP en Pudahuel
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
010020010624
010020010625
010020010626
010020010627
010020010628
Hora Fecha
ug
/m3-
ICA
P
EL(ug/m3)
EL(ICAP)
Meteorological Index (PMCA)
Air Pollution Meteorological Potential (PMCA) related to PM10 in Santiago(Represent an inverse of Ventilation factor)
5 Index Classes: 1 Low2 Low to Medium3 Medium4 Medium to High5 High
Each Index Class is associated to one or more synoptic and mesoscale configurationsUpper air variables ranges associated to each Index Class.Meteorological conditions follow up and analysis support expert forecast.
Meteorological Index Classes
Class 1 Low
Active Frontal Systems
Intense Instability
Class 2 Low to
Medium
Frontal Systems
Instability
Intense Humid Air Advection
Segregated Cold Lows
Class 3 Medium
Anticyclone Conditions
Light Humid Air Advection
Class 4 Medium to
High
Type A Episode
Type BPF Episode
Medium Zonal Circulation
Index
Class 5 High
Intense Type A Episode
Intense Type BPF Episode
Low Zonal Circulation
Index
Episode Conditions
Meteorological Index Classes
Objective Classification Rules based on selected upper air forecasted variables
Geopotencial Height 500 Hpa
5400
5500
5600
5700
5800
5900
1 2 3 4 5
Meteorological Index (PMCA) for PM10
Hei
ght (
m)
-1 desv. Est
promedio
+1 desv. Est
Temperature 925 hPa
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5
Meteorological Index
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
-1 desv. Estpromedio +1 desv. Est
Dew Point Depresion 925 hPa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1 2 3 4 5Meteorological Index
De
w P
oin
t D
ep
res
(C
)
-1 desv. Est
promedio
+1 desv. Est
Daily Meteorological Index (PMCA) and PM10 time series
PMCA observado vs PM10
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
31-m
ar
4-a
br
8-a
br
12-a
br
16-a
br
20-a
br
24-a
br
28-a
br
2-m
ay
6-m
ay
10-m
ay
14-m
ay
18-m
ay
22-m
ay
26-m
ay
30-m
ay
3-jun
7-jun
11-jun
15-jun
19-jun
23-jun
27-jun
1-jul
5-jul
9-jul
13-jul
17-jul
21-jul
25-jul
29-jul
2-a
go
6-a
go
10-a
go
14-a
go
18-a
go
22-a
go
26-a
go
30-a
go
970903
970907
970911
970915
Fecha
PM
CA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
PM
10 PMCA
PM10
Air Quality Forecasting System for Santiago
Forecast Requirements:
• Next day PM10 maximum 24 h value estimated at each monitoring station
• Forecast Accuracy > 65% at each monitoring station
• Independent expert validation
• Operational considerations: – Report episode levels not forecasted
– Report changes in meteorological conditions that affect episode declarations
– Report monitor stations perturbations that affect representativity
Air Quality Forecasting System for Santiago
CENMA Air Quality Forecast Program:• Use all the information and forecast tools available • Operational use of forecast tested methods• Final forecast decision by expert meteorologist• Assure timely report deliver• 2 persons (at least) dedicated every day, 7 days per week• Permanent interaction with counterparts• Permanent internal evaluation of analysis and forecast
results • Search Expert Evaluation and Recommendations
Air Quality Forecasting System for Santiago
Conceptual Squeme
Meteorological ConditionsSynoptic and Mesoscale
Meteorological ConditionsBasin and Urban Scale
Air Quality
Emissions
Meteorological ConditionsSynoptic and Mesoscale
Meteorological ConditionsBasin and Urban Scale
Air Quality
Emissions
Meteorological Index (PMCA)
Present (Observed) Conditions
Future (Forecast) Conditions
Air Quality Forecasting System for Santiago
Meteorological ConditionsSynoptic and Mesoscale
Meteorological ConditionsBasin and Urban Scale
Air Quality
Emissions
Present (Observed) Conditions
Synoptic Weather Analysis ChartsSatellite Images (GOES)Nearest Radiosonde (Santo Domingo, DMC)Surface Synoptic Stations (DMC)
CENMA Regional Meteorological Network (12 Surface Stations, 1 Vertical Profiler LAP-RASS)Santiago Air Quality Network (7 sites)
Santiago Air Quality Network (8 sites)
Data Sources
Air Quality Forecasting System for Santiago
Meteorological ConditionsSynoptic and Mesoscale
Meteorological ConditionsBasin and Urban Scale
Air Quality
Emissions
Numerical Weather Forecast Models:NCEP (AVN), NOGAPS, ECMRFETA (CPTEC Brasil), MM5 (U.Chile)
CENMA Local Scale Meteorological Forecast (Meteorological Index, PMCA)
Statistical Model (J. Cassmassi)
Future (Forecast) Conditions
Day of Week Air Quality Variation
Data Sources
Regional Meteorological Network supporting Air Quality Forecast
Continuous monitoring:•PM10•CO•SO2•NOx•O3•HC•Meteorology
Air Quality Monitoring Network in Santiago (MACAM2, 1997 )
Air Quality Forecast Model
PM10 Forecast Model for SantiagoDeveloped by J. Cassmassi (SCAQMD, California)
Statistical relationships obtained by Multilinear Regression, PM10 maximum 24h values estimated for each monitoring station, one day in advance.
Variables: – Observed: upper air meteorology, PM10 concentrations, week variation of
PM10 (subrogate for emission variations)– Forecast and observed: Meteorological Conditions Index (PMCA)
Data period:– Model Development: 1997-1998, April – Sep– Model Validation: 1999, April – Sep
Independent evaluation: H. Fuenzalida, U. de Chile
Meteorological Index Forecast Evaluation
Air Quality Forecast Evaluation
Forecast 5 Index Classes 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Perfect Agreement (Deviation 0), one day in advance
79.7 % 79.9 % 83.2 % 84.7 % 80.2 %
Perfect Agreement (Deviation 0), two days in advance
72.9 % 65.5 % 70.2 % 71.2 % 69.5 %
Agreement considering +/-1 class deviation, one day in advance
99.7 % 99.7 % 99.4 % 99.7 % 99.5 %
Air Quality Forecast Evaluation
Air Quality Forecast Model Evaluation
4 Air Quality Levels Forecast 2000 2001 2002 2003 Perfect Agreement (Deviation 0) (%) 74.7 85.9 80.2 76.1 Episodes Not Alerted (%) 23.5 25.0 16.0 33.3 False Alerts (%) 51.9 48.3 55.3 57.1
•General agreement of observed and predicted values
•Over–prediction of Episode Level 1 Alert (False Alerts)
Air Quality Forecast Evaluation
MP10 pronosticado por la ecuación N° 1 del Modelo Cassmassi, valor observado y Opinión Experta entre el 15 de Marzo y 17 de Septiembre 2002
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
15-M
ar
25-M
ar
04-A
br
14-A
br
24-A
br
04-M
ay
14-M
ay
24-M
ay
03-J
un
13-J
un
23-J
un
03-J
ul
13-J
ul
23-J
ul
02-A
go
12-A
go
22-A
go
01-S
ep
11-S
ep
ug
/m3
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ug
/m3
MP-10 Pronosticado MP-10 Observado
Alerta Preemergencia
Opinión Experta Emisiones Locales
PM10 Observed and Forecast Values, March-Sep 2002
Air Quality Forecast Results
118114
10196
8184
93
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
PM
10
ug
/m3
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
PM10 Mean Concentration (01 Abril- 17 Septiembre), 1997-2003Air Quality Monitoring Stations, Santiago
PM10 Mean Concentration Increase last years
Air Quality Forecast Results
PM10 Episode days Increase last years
MP10 Máximos Diarios 1997-2003 (01 Abril-17 Septiembre)
99 102
8879
67
28
4449 45
3238
25 24
11
36
1913 10 7 8 43 1 1 0 0 0 0
4958
3141
34
1622
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Años
N°
Día
s
>150 >150 y <=195 >195 y <=240 >240 y <=330 >330
Discussion
Meteorology Index Forecast shows good perfomance
Posible improvements:
• Refined NWP models for this Region
• Continue meteorology - air quality relationships analysis
Air Quality Forecast:
• Adjust statistical model to air quality scenario changes
• Test other approaches (MOS, neural network, pattern classification, ...?)
• Study Santiago North West Sector, where highest PM10 levels are observed.