Air Quality ForecastingAir Quality ForecastingProgram andProgram and

Ozone Season 2004Ozone Season 2004

COG Board of DirectorsCOG Board of DirectorsMay 12, 2004May 12, 2004

Joan Rohlfs, ChiefJoan Rohlfs, ChiefAir Quality PlanningAir Quality Planning

22

Health-based standards for air pollutantsHealth-based standards for air pollutants

Forecasting ProgramForecasting Program

Public Education through Clean Air PartnersPublic Education through Clean Air Partners

Change in Forecasting ProceduresChange in Forecasting Procedures

Local Government Actions on Code Red Local Government Actions on Code Red Forecast DaysForecast Days

Presentation Topics

33

Clean Air Act Amendments 1990Clean Air Act Amendments 1990EPA set federal health standards for EPA set federal health standards for ambient pollutantsambient pollutants

NOx

SO2

Lead

Ozone

CO

ParticulateMatter

44

Status of Air Quality in Washington Status of Air Quality in Washington RegionRegion

2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Lead SO2 NO2 PM10 CO 1-Hour Ozone

8-Hour Ozone

19902003

Health Standard

55

Air Quality is Monitored and Air Quality is Monitored and ForecastedForecasted

State air agencies and State air agencies and localities monitor air constantly localities monitor air constantly at 17 regional locationsat 17 regional locations

Meteorologists conduct daily Meteorologists conduct daily forecast calls to predict forecast calls to predict tomorrow’s air qualitytomorrow’s air quality

Purpose: alert public 24 hours Purpose: alert public 24 hours in advance of an ozone in advance of an ozone episodeepisode

66

View current county-level air quality data atView current county-level air quality data atwww.air-watch.netwww.air-watch.net

Real-Time Air Quality DataReal-Time Air Quality Data

77

Educate the public about the health effects of ozone and motivate employers and

individuals to take actions to improve air quality.

BMC – COG - DC-DOH – DDOT – MDE – MDOT – VDEQ - VDOT

BMC – COG - DC-DOH – DDOT – MDE – MDOT – VDEQ - VDOT

Originally created as ENDZONE Partners by MWAQC and TPB in 1994, the organization was chartered by COG and BMC as Clean Air Partners in 1997.

88

Communicate Air Quality Information

500 Public/Private Partners

Prevent Air Quality

Code Red Days

99

Local Government Actions on Local Government Actions on Code Red DaysCode Red Days

Provide daily notice of air quality forecastProvide daily notice of air quality forecast Encourage employee use of public transit, Encourage employee use of public transit,

car/van pool to and from workcar/van pool to and from work Postpone asphalt paving, resurfacingPostpone asphalt paving, resurfacing Postpone use of oil-based paint, solventsPostpone use of oil-based paint, solvents Postpone use of gas-powered landscaping Postpone use of gas-powered landscaping

equipment (mowing, trimming)equipment (mowing, trimming) Refueling after duskRefueling after dusk

1010

New Pollutant StandardsNew Pollutant Standards

EPA is adopting two EPA is adopting two more protective air more protective air quality standardsquality standards

Forecasting for these Forecasting for these standards begins this standards begins this summersummer

Air quality plans will be Air quality plans will be developed soondeveloped soon

8-Hour Ozone Standard8-Hour Ozone Standard Particle PollutionParticle Pollution

(< 2.5 micrometers)(< 2.5 micrometers)

Photo courtesy US EPA

1111

Comparison of Ozone StandardsComparison of Ozone Standards

1-hr Ozone Standard1-hr Ozone Standard

Protects against shorter-term Protects against shorter-term exposureexposure

Higher ozone limit measured Higher ozone limit measured over shorter timeover shorter time

Exceedance known at end of Exceedance known at end of hourhour

8-hr Ozone Standard8-hr Ozone Standard

Protects against chronic Protects against chronic exposureexposure

Lower limit over a longer Lower limit over a longer period of timeperiod of time

Exceedance known at end Exceedance known at end of dayof day

1212

8-Hour vs. 1-Hour Ozone Exceedances 8-Hour vs. 1-Hour Ozone Exceedances (1993-2003 Washington Region Data)(1993-2003 Washington Region Data)

8

46

1

6 6 7

2 3

9

3

52

20

29

18

29

47

39

10

24

38

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Nu

mb

er o

f E

xcee

da

nce

Day

s

1-Hour Exceedance 8-Hour Exceedance

1313

4

8-Hour Ozone Calendar (2003)8-Hour Ozone Calendar (2003)

Sun Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri Sat1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30

JUNE '03 JULYSun Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri Sat

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30 31

AUGUSTSun Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri Sat

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

31

SEPTEMBERSun Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri Sat

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29 30

1414

The New Forecast ApproachThe New Forecast Approach

An Ozone Action Day will be An Ozone Action Day will be called at an AQI level of 151 called at an AQI level of 151 (Code Red).(Code Red).

An Ozone Action Day will be An Ozone Action Day will be called if the next day is forecasted called if the next day is forecasted to be a “High Orange” (AQI of to be a “High Orange” (AQI of 125) 125) ANDAND the following day is the following day is forecasted to be a Code Red.forecasted to be a Code Red.

AQI AQI RangeRange

AQIAQI ColorColor

201-300 Purple

151-200 Red

101-150 Orange

51-100 Yellow

0-50 Green

1515

How Many How Many Code RedCode Red Action Days Could Action Days Could We Have?We Have?

(1998-2003 Washington Region Data)(1998-2003 Washington Region Data)

6

7

2

3

9

3

9

1

3

10

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Nu

mb

er

of

Ac

tio

n D

ay

s

Number of Action Days (old method) Number of Action Days (new method)

1616

What is Code Purple?What is Code Purple?

AQI AQI RangeRange

AQIAQI ColorColor

Health Health DescriptorDescriptor

8-Hr O3 8-Hr O3 Range (ppb)Range (ppb)

201-300

Purple Very Unhealthy

125-374

0

1

0 0

2 2

0

1

2

3

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Nu

mb

er

of

Da

ys

Active adults and kids – and adults and children with lung disease like asthma – are sensitive to air pollution and should avoid all outdoor exertion while we are in the purple range.

(1998-2003 Washington Region Data)(1998-2003 Washington Region Data)

1717

Code Red and Orange Particle DaysCode Red and Orange Particle DaysWashington, DC

1818

Addressing The Multi-Pollutant IssueAddressing The Multi-Pollutant Issue Forecasts will be issued using the Forecasts will be issued using the

Air Quality Index (AQI) color Air Quality Index (AQI) color codes.codes.

Primary pollutant on hotline and Primary pollutant on hotline and fax.fax.

Both pollutants on the web site.Both pollutants on the web site.

Integrated health message to Integrated health message to address both ozone and particles.address both ozone and particles.

AQI AQI RangeRange

AQIAQI ColorColor

8-Hr O3 8-Hr O3 Range (ppb)Range (ppb)

24-Hr PM24-Hr PM2.52.5 Range (Range (µg/mµg/m33))

201-300

Purple 125-374 150.5-250.4

151-200

Red 105-124 65.5-150.4

101-150

Orange 85-104 40.5-65.4

51-100 Yellow 65-84 15.5-40.4

0-50 Green 0-64 0-15.4

EPA’s Air Quality Index Reporting Rule: Final August 4, 1999

1919

Sample Washington Sample Washington Press ReleasePress Release

• Air Quality Report

• Health Message

• Ozone Prevention Tips

• Contact Information

2020

Code Red Health ActionsCode Red Health Actionsfor Local Governmentsfor Local Governments

Need consistent policy for program Need consistent policy for program involving children, students and outdoor involving children, students and outdoor activities during the summer.activities during the summer. Should athletic practices be cancelled or Should athletic practices be cancelled or

postponed?postponed? Should day camps move activities indoors?Should day camps move activities indoors?

2121

Integrated Health MessageIntegrated Health Message

People with HEART OR LUNG DISEASE, older adults, children, and even healthy adults may experience health effects when air pollution levels are high (Code Orange or worse). Should air quality exceed the federal health standard, an Air Quality Code Red Health Advisory will be issued advising the following precautions:

• Children and older adults should reduce outdoor activities.

• Healthy individuals should limit strenuous work or exercise, especially outdoors.

• Individuals with respiratory and heart ailments, emphysema, asthma, or chronic bronchitis should limit their activity level.

2222

ConclusionsConclusions

2004 will be a transition year from 2004 will be a transition year from 1-hour to 8-hour ozone forecasting1-hour to 8-hour ozone forecasting

2004 will be a transition year from 2004 will be a transition year from 1-hour to 8-hour ozone forecasting1-hour to 8-hour ozone forecasting

“ “Ozone Action Day” becomes Ozone Action Day” becomes “Air Quality Action Day” to include particles“Air Quality Action Day” to include particles

“ “Ozone Action Day” becomes Ozone Action Day” becomes “Air Quality Action Day” to include particles“Air Quality Action Day” to include particles