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AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONSREDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONSREDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
E. Angelino1, M.P. Costa2, A. D’Allura2, S. Finardi2, G. Fossati1, G. Lanzani1, E. Peroni1, P. Radice2, C. Silibello2
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
1. ARPA - Regional Environmental Protection Agency – Lombardia
www.arpalombardia.it
2. ARIANET Srl – www.aria-net.it
2
Why 1: in the Po valley, 30-40% of PM is secondary inorganic; Why 2: need for our local Administration to investigate wheatherstricter command and control policies should be applied to ammonia or nitrogen oxides emissions (or both); We are interested into determining if Lombardy plain can beconsidered either ammonia or NOX limited;
These slides: Base case: Domain, Emissions, Meteorology, Bc, Results [3-22] Scenarios: Hypothesis, Results, Discussion [23-33]
A few words of introduction…
3
Simulation domain
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
Nr. of grid points along x, y: 146, 96Horizontal resolution: 4 kmDomain area: 584x284 km2
Grid face heights [m]:
1 = 40.2 = 90.3 = 160.4 = 260.5 = 390.6 = 570.7 = 810.8 = 1140.9 = 1580.
….16 = 10040.
Emissions
EMEP 2009 – 50 x 50 km2 Local Inventories* 2011 – Municipal level
Naval emissions – District level National Inventory 2009*– District level
* INEMAR inventory (www.inemar.eu) except for Vallée d’Aoste
* Originally referred to 2005 and updated with GAINS trends
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY4
NOx emissions
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY 5
Sectors weight (%) - NOX
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY 6
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
Sectors weight (%) – NH3
8
17/3/2011-19/4/2011NH3 max rate = 0.0702 mol/m2sNOX max rate = 0.2092 mol/m2s
9
Two months were simulated – one in spring and one in autumn –when liquid manure is spread and measurements were available
16/09/2011-16/10/2011NH3 max rate = 0.1010 mol/m2sNOX max rate = 0.1924 mol/m2s
NH3
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
NOX
Anthropogenic emissions*
* Non-anthropogenic: MEGAN+CORINE land cover+CH GEOSTAT;meteorological parameters by RAMS+SURFpro
10
Meteorological driver: RAMS+REVUSimulated periods:• 16/03-20/04/2011• 14/09-16/10/2011Howto:• Every 5 days of
simulations+ 1 spin-off day
Grid 1 Grid 2xy (km) 16 4Nx 121 170Ny 111 118Nz 32 32
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
Meteorology
11
SP
RIN
GFA
LL
Obs. RAMS+REVU
10m windfield
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
12
T, Rad, RH, etc.
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
• Derived from QUALEARIA daily runs over Italy• Emissions: National Inventory 2005 @ district level updated to 2009
with GAINS trends + TNO 2005 European Inventory(http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-17.pdf)
• Eulerian model FARM + SAPRC99 + ISORROPIA
Larger domain: 48 km grid pace.Nested domain: 12 Km grid pace
13
Boundary conditions
Hourly BC conditions
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
17/3/2011-19/4/2011NH3: Min=0.1 – Max=29.8 g/m3
14/09/2011-16/10/2011NH3: Min=0.3 – Max=41.2 g/m3
14
Results: NH3 and NO2 averages
NO2: Min=0.7 – Max=55.7 g/m3 NO2: Min=0.6 – Max=53.6 g/m3
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
Name District ClassificationMoggio LC Rural Background (FR)Milano - Pascal Città Studi MI Urban Background (FU)Corte de Cortesi CR Rural Background (FR)Bertonico LO Rural Industrial (IR)Cremona - Via Fatebenefratelli CR Urban Background (FU)Cremona - via Gerre Borghi CR Rural Background (FR)Saronno - via Santuario VA Urban Background (FU) Seriate BG Urban Background (FU) Lecco - Via Sora LC Urban Background (FU) Milano - Pascal Città Studi MI Urban Background (FU) Brescia - via Ziziola BS Suburban Background (FS)Cornale (Voghera Energia) PV Rural Background (FR) Ponti sul Mincio MN Suburban Background (FS) Spinadesco CR Rural Background (FR)
15
NH
3
Results: comparison with measured values
NO
2
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
Station: 626 (CR) - Type: FR
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
g
m-3
]
Station: 1266 (LO) - Type: IR
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
g
m-3
]
NH3(spring)
measured computed
Station: 681 (LC) - Type: FR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
g
m-3
]
Station: 677 (CR) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
g
m-3
]
Station: 1303 (CR) - Type: FR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
16.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
Station: 1303 (CR) - Type: FR
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 626 (CR) - Type: FR
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
4
g
m-3
]
Station: 1266 (LO) - Type: IR
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
4
g
m-3
]
Station: 681 (LC) - Type: FR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4
g
m-3
] NH3 (fall)
measured computed
Station: 677 (CR) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10date
g
m-3
]
Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4
g
m-3
]
17.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
NO2 (spring)
measured computed
Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 591 (BG) - Type: FU
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 653 (BS) - Type: FS
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]18.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
measured computed
Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 591 (BG) - Type: FU
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 653 (BS) - Type: FS
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
19.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
NO2 (fall)
20
17/3/2011-19/4/2011PM25: Min=3.1 – Max=22.6 g/m3
17/3/2011-19/4/2011PM25: Min=2.7 – Max=24.3 g/m3
Results: PM25 averages
Name District ClassificationSaronno - via Santuario VA Urban Background (FU)Seriate BG Urban Background (FU) Lecco - Via Sora LC Urban Background (FU) Milano - Pascal Città Studi MI Urban Background (FU) Darfo (aria) BS Suburban Background (FS) Cornale (Voghera Energia) PV Rural Background (FR)Ponti sul Mincio MN Suburban Background (FS)Spinadesco CR Rural Background (FR)
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
measured computed
Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18/3
20/3
22/3
24/3
26/3
28/3
30/3
1/4
3/4
5/4
7/4
9/4
11/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 591 (BG) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18/3
20/3
22/3
24/3
26/3
28/3
30/3
1/4
3/4
5/4
7/4
9/4
11/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18/3
20/3
22/3
24/3
26/3
28/3
30/3
1/4
3/4
5/4
7/4
9/4
11/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18/3
20/3
22/3
24/3
26/3
28/3
30/3
1/4
3/4
5/4
7/4
9/4
11/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8018/3
20/3
22/3
24/3
26/3
28/3
30/3
1/4
3/4
5/4
7/4
9/4
11/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
date
g
m-3
]21
Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18/3
20/3
22/3
24/3
26/3
28/3
30/3
1/4
3/4
5/4
7/4
9/4
11/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 655 (BS) - Type: FS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18/3
20/3
22/3
24/3
26/3
28/3
30/3
1/4
3/4
5/4
7/4
9/4
11/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
18/3
20/3
22/3
24/3
26/3
28/3
30/3
1/4
3/4
5/4
7/4
9/4
11/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
date
g
m-3
].::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
PM25 (spring)
measured computed
Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15/9
17/9
19/9
21/9
23/9
25/9
27/9
29/9
1/10
3/10
5/10
7/10
9/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 591 (BG) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15/9
17/9
19/9
21/9
23/9
25/9
27/9
29/9
1/10
3/10
5/10
7/10
9/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15/9
17/9
19/9
21/9
23/9
25/9
27/9
29/9
1/10
3/10
5/10
7/10
9/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15/9
17/9
19/9
21/9
23/9
25/9
27/9
29/9
1/10
3/10
5/10
7/10
9/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 655 (BS) - Type: FS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15/9
17/9
19/9
21/9
23/9
25/9
27/9
29/9
1/10
3/10
5/10
7/10
9/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15/9
17/9
19/9
21/9
23/9
25/9
27/9
29/9
1/10
3/10
5/10
7/10
9/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8015/9
17/9
19/9
21/9
23/9
25/9
27/9
29/9
1/10
3/10
5/10
7/10
9/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15/9
17/9
19/9
21/9
23/9
25/9
27/9
29/9
1/10
3/10
5/10
7/10
9/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
date
g
m-3
]22
PM25 (fall)
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
Not devised to represent actual reductions on emissions connected to realadoptable interventions.
N. Emissions reductions1. -25% NH3 on all the simulation domain (the Po valley); 2. -25% NH3 on Lombardy alone; 3. -50% NH3 on Lombardy alone; 4. -12.5% NOx on Lombardy alone; 5. -25% NOx on Lombardy alone; 6. -50% NOx on Lombardy alone; 7. -25% NH3 and NOx on Lombardy alone; 8. -25% NH3 e NOx on all the simulation domain; 9. -25% NH3 e -50% NOx on Lombardy alone; 10. -50% NH3 e -25% NOx on Lombardy alone.
Simulated periods (measured data windows – year 2011):• 17/03 – 19/04• 14/09 – 19/10
23
Emissions scenarios –preliminary results
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
Spring:% variation with
respect to the base case; averages on space and time on
AQ stationsconsidered
NH3 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
-26.69%-22.25%
-43.98%
0.71% 1.49% 3.30%
-20.91%-24.52%
-19.27%
-42.89%-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
NOx (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )-0.02% -0.01% -0.02%
-10.54%
-20.88%
-40.76%
-20.89%
-25.53%
-40.76%
-20.90%
-45.0%
-40.0%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
PM25 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
-3.62%
-2.49%
-6.03%
-1.35%
-2.88%
-6.61%
-5.11%
-9.08%-8.53% -8.27%
-10.0%-9.0%-8.0%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%
-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
NO2 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )-0.02% -0.01% -0.02%
-9.81%
-19.65%
-39.21%
-19.66%
-24.24%
-39.21%
-19.67%
-45.0%
-40.0%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
O3 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2.23%
4.49%
8.92%
4.49%5.13%
8.92%
4.49%
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
10.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
OH (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
-0.01% -0.01% -0.03%
4.36%
8.80%
16.53%
8.79%
10.65%
16.53%
8.77%
-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
ScenarioVa
riatio
n
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY 24
NO3 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
-9.12%
-6.31%
-15.26%
-3.43%
-7.26%
-16.44%
-12.92%
-22.48%-21.33%-20.89%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
SO4 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
0.14%
0.27%
0.41%
0.27%
0.22%
0.41%
0.26%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
NH4 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
-5.34%
-3.70%
-8.97%
-2.00%
-4.24%
-9.68%
-7.56%
-13.29%-12.55%-12.26%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
ORG (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
0.01% 0.00% 0.01%
0.20%
0.37%
0.54%
0.37%0.41%
0.54%
0.37%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
25
Spring:% variation with respect to the base case; averages
on space and time on AQ stations considered
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
NH3 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
-25.09%-20.97%
-41.58%
0.75% 1.53% 3.17%
-19.60%-23.04%
-18.13%
-40.45%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
NOx (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )-0.03% -0.02% -0.05%
-10.17%
-20.09%
-39.08%
-20.10%-23.86%
-39.09%
-20.12%
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
PM25 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
-4.37%-3.21%
-7.72%
-2.43%
-5.03%
-10.68%
-7.82%
-12.57%-13.01%
-11.70%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Scenario
Varia
tion
NO2 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )-0.03% -0.02% -0.05%
-9.83%
-19.53%
-38.37%
-19.54%-23.27%
-38.38%
-19.57%
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
O3 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2.06%
4.06%
7.63%
4.06% 4.05%
7.63%
4.06%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
OH (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
-0.01% -0.01% -0.02%
2.02%
3.79%
5.73%
3.79% 4.07%
5.72%
3.78%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
ScenarioVa
riatio
n
26.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
Fall:% variation with
respect to the base case; averages on space and time on
AQ stationsconsidered
NO3 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
-11.28%-8.26%
-19.72%
-6.16%
-12.65%
-26.34%
-19.77%
-31.15% -32.23%-29.55%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
SO4 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
0.02% 0.02%0.04% 0.04% 0.05%
-0.15%
0.06%
-0.18%
-0.15%
0.07%
-0.20%
-0.15%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
NH4 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
-6.27%-4.62%
-11.09%
-3.45%
-7.12%
-14.98%
-11.12%
-17.71% -18.31%-16.66%
-20%-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%
-8%-6%-4%-2%0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
ORG (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
-0.03%
-0.14%
-0.68%
-0.14%
-0.36%
-0.68%
-0.14%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
27
Fall:% variation with respect to the base case; averages
on space and time on AQ stations considered
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
28
PM25 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
-4.37%-3.21%
-7.72%
-2.43%
-5.03%
-10.68%
-7.82%
-12.57% -13.01%
-11.70%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
PM25 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
-3.62%-2.49%
-6.03%
-1.35%
-2.88%
-6.61%
-5.11%
-9.08%-8.53% -8.27%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Scenario
Varia
tion
Preliminary results: PM25 averages
Reductions over the entire Po Valley are more effective than theircounterparts over Lombardy alone
.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
Emissionsreduction
Pollutant PM2.5
Spring Autumn
-25%NH3 -2.49 % -3.24 %NOX -2.88 % -5.03 %
-50%NH3 -6.03 % -7.72 %NOX -6.61 % -10.68 %
-25% NH3, -25% NOX -5.11 % -7.82 %-25% NH3,-50% NOX -8.53 % -12.57 %
-50% NH3, -25% NOX -8.27 % -11.70 %
Reducing NH3appears aseffective asreducing NOX
Reducing bothprecursors at the same time is aseffective as the maximumreduction gainedby reducing one at timesLess effective impact during spring. NOX
emissions reduction free hydroxyl that reactswhith SO2 and condensable VOC
29.::Harmo 15::. 6-9 May 2013 – Madrid - AIR QUALITY INFLUENCE OF AMMONIA AND NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS REDUCTION OVER THE PO VALLEY
Preliminary results: PM25 average reductions
OH (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
-0.01% -0.01% -0.03%
4.36%
8.80%
16.53%
8.79%
10.65%
16.53%
8.77%
-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Varia
tion
OH (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
-0.01% -0.01% -0.02%
2.02%
3.79%
5.73%
3.79% 4.07%5.72%
3.78%
-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Varia
tion
SO4 (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
0.14%
0.27%
0.41%
0.27%0.22%
0.41%
0.26%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Varia
tion
SO4 (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
0.02% 0.02% 0.04% 0.04% 0.05%
-0.15%
0.06%
-0 18%-0.15%
0.07%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Varia
tion
ORG (17/3 - 19/4/2011 )
0.01% 0.00% 0.01%
0.20%
0.37%
0.54%
0.37% 0.41%0.54%
0.37%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Varia
tion
ORG (14/9 - 16/10/2011 )
0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
-0.03%-0.14%
-0.68%
-0.14%
-0.36%
-0.68%
-0.14%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Varia
tion
30
Scenarios 4, 5 and 6 show thatdecreasing emissions of NOX lead tonear linear results on PM25concentrations if the amount of thereduction is between 12.5% and25%
For greater reductions, between20% and 50%, PM25 concentrationsdecreases with a more thanproportional relation.
More or less the same holds true forammonia emissions reductions(scenarios 2 and 3)
31
Preliminary results: PM25 reductions and precursors emissions
The same non-linearity at higherNOX reductions converselyaffects ozone level
32
But ozone increases…
33
• Reductions on PM2.5: as far as this results imply, we are in the limitarea, where both precursors show similar impact on secondaryPM25;
• Linearity up to a certain amount of reductionof precursors emissions(around 20%); greater impact with higher %;
• reduction of NOX slightly more effective, but with a seasonalpattern (more effective in autumn then in spring);
• One should also account that ammonia concentrations are stronglyunderestimate in the proximity of cattle and pig breeding areas;
• Expected a fairly limited growth of Sulphates and Organic fractiondue to an increase of available hdroxyl, but unexpected that thisgrowth occurs only in spring;
• Clear (and expected) growth of ozone when NOX are reduced.
Need of further investigations (all year long, with more measureddata)
Preliminary conclusions
Stazioni di misuraO3
ID Nome Provincia Classificazione554 Saronno - via Santuario VA FU609 Casirate d`Adda BG FR706 Lecco - Via Sora LC FU705 Milano - Pascal Città Studi MI FU653 Brescia - via Ziziola BS FS672 Cornale (Voghera Energia) PV FR695 Ponti sul Mincio MN FS1297 Spinadesco CR FR
O3 (19/3-19/4/2011)
measured computed
Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 609 (BG) - Type: FR
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 653 (BS) - Type: FS
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR
020406080
100
120140160180200
19/3
21/3
23/3
25/3
27/3
29/3
31/3
2/4
4/4
6/4
8/4
10/4
13/4
15/4
17/4
19/4
date
g
m-3
]
O3 (16/9-17/10/2011)
measured computed
Station: 554 (VA) - Type: FU
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 609 (BG) - Type: FR
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 706 (LC) - Type: FU
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 705 (MI) - Type: FU
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 653 (BS) - Type: FS
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 672 (PV) - Type: FR
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 695 (MN) - Type: FS
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
Station: 1297 (CR) - Type: FR
020406080
100120140160180200
16/9
18/9
20/9
22/9
24/9
26/9
28/9
30/9
2/10
4/10
6/10
8/10
11/10
13/10
15/10
17/10
date
g
m-3
]
4. -12.5% riduzione NOx sulla sola Lombardia; 5. -25% riduzione NOx sulla sola Lombardia; 6. -50% riduzione NOx sulla sola Lombardia.
Periodi di Simulazione:• - dal 17 marzo al 19 aprile 2011;• - dal 14 settembre al 16 ottobre 2011.
Analisi Scenari Emissivi
NO2
Scenario 4 –Scenario 0 Scenario 5 –Scenario 0 Scenario 6 –Scenario 0
17/3
–19
/4/ 2
011
14/9
–16
/10/
201
1
Scenario 4 –Scenario 0 Scenario 5 –Scenario 0 Scenario 6 –Scenario 0
PM2.517
/3 –
19/4
/ 201
114
/9 –
16/1
0/ 2
011
O3
Scenario 4 –Scenario 0 Scenario 5 –Scenario 0 Scenario 6 –Scenario 0
17/3
–19
/4/ 2
011
14/9
–16
/10/
201
1
2. -25% riduzione NH3 sulla sola Lombardia; 3. -50% riduzione NH3 sulla sola Lombardia.
Periodi di Simulazione:• - dal 17 marzo al 19 aprile 2011;• - dal 14 settembre al 16 ottobre 2011.
Analisi Scenari Emissivi