air quality modeling
DESCRIPTION
Air Quality Modeling. Trends in Urban Asia Sulfur Pollution Model Overview. RAINS-Asia Developed by IIASA, Austria SO 2 , PM, NO x Energy, Emissions, Controls, Costs and Optimization modules. ATMOS Dispersion Model SO 2 , PM, NO x Lagrangian Puff Transport Linear Chemistry - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Air Quality Modeling
ControlStrategies
ControlStrategies
EmissionsDistribution
EmissionsDistribution
Air QualityModel
Air QualityModel
Pollutant Distribution
Pollutant Distribution
MeteorologyMeteorology
AtmosphericChemistry
AtmosphericChemistry
Air Quality Impacts•health and welfare•secondary impacts•population exposure
Air Quality Impacts•health and welfare•secondary impacts•population exposure
Air Quality Goals•technical feasibility•economic issues•robustness
Air Quality Goals•technical feasibility•economic issues•robustness
Trends in Urban Asia Sulfur Pollution
Model Overview
RAINS-AsiaDeveloped by IIASA, Austria
SO2, PM, NOx
Energy, Emissions, Controls, Costs and Optimization modules
ATMOS Dispersion ModelSO2, PM, NOx
Lagrangian Puff TransportLinear Chemistry
NCEP Winds (1975-2000)
Model Overview
Regional Transport Model: STEM
Structure: Modular Modular (on-line and off-line mode)
Meteorology: RAMSRAMS - MM5MM5 - ECMWFECMWF - NCEP NCEP
EmissionsEmissions: Anthropogenic, biogenic and natural
Chemical mechanism: SAPRC’99 SAPRC’99 (Carter,2000)
93 Species, 225 reactions, explicit VOC treatment
Photolysis: NCAR-TUV 4.1 NCAR-TUV 4.1 (30 reactions)
Resolution: Flexible Flexible 80km x 80km for regional and 16km x 16km for urban
STEM
For Southeast Asia and Indian Sub-Continent
Original Fire Count(FC) data(AVHRR)
“Fill-up” Zero Fire Counts using Moving
Average(MA)
“Fill-up” Zero Fire Count using TOMS AI
Satellite Coverage
Cloudiness
Mask Grid (Landcover)
Precipitation(NCEP)
“Extinguish” Fire Count using Mask Grids
Mask Grid (Never Fire)
Moving Averaged Fire Count data (Level 2)
AI Adjusted Fire Count data (Level 3)
5-day Fire Count
Regress. Coeff.(AI/FC)
Regional Emission Estimates:
Biomass Burning Emissions
Consequences of urban fossil fuel use:
Local to Global air pollution
Source: Climatology Division, meteorology department, Thailand
Airborne Particulate Pollution Airborne Particulate Pollution A A MegacityMegacity ProblemProblemBangkok Visibility IndexBangkok Visibility Index
Impact of Asian NOImpact of Asian NOxx
Emissions on Global Emissions on Global Air QualityAir Quality
% contribution by Asian NOx to total ozone concentrations (2 km)
Source: Yienger, et al., 2000
Urban Energy Demand Energy Production
Cities: A part of the Problem
Energy Demand and Pollution
Rising GHG levels
Waste Management
Urban transportation
Integrated Assessment
Emissions to End Points
Air Toxics
PM
Acid Rain
Visibility
Ozone
Mobile Mobile SourcesSources
Industrial Industrial SourcesSources
Area Area SourcesSources
(Cars, trucks, airplanes, boats, etc.)
(Power plants, factories, refineries/chemical plants, etc.)
(Homes, small business, farming equipment, etc.)
NOx, VOC,NOx, VOC,ToxicsToxics
NOx, VOC, NOx, VOC, SOx, ToxicsSOx, Toxics
NOx, VOC,NOx, VOC,ToxicsToxics
ChemistryMeteorology
Atmospheric Deposition
Regional Emission Estimates:
Anthropogenic Sources
Industrial and Power Sector Coal, Fuel Oil, NG
SO2, NOx, VOC, and Toxics
Domestic SectorCoal, Biofuels, NG/LPG
SO2, CO, and VOC
Transportation SectorGasoline, Diesel, CNG/LPG
NOx, and VOC
Regional Emission Estimates:
Natural Sources
Biomass Burning In-field and Out-field combustion
CO, NOx, VOC, and SPM
VolcanoesSO2, and SPM
Dust OutbreaksSPM
PP0%
BB24%
IND16%
TRAN26%
DOM34%
IND7%
PP22%
BB29%
TRAN4%
DOM38%
IND18%
DOM8%
TRAN44%
PP19%
BB11%
IND37%
DOM12%
TRAN4%
PP46%
BB1%
Regional Emission Estimates:
Sectoral Contributions
COCONONOxx
SOSO22
VOCVOC
SO2 = 34.8 TgNOx = 25.6 Tg
CO = 244.8 TgVOC = 52.7 Tg
Annual Asian Emissions for Year 2000
PP = Power SectorBB = Biomass BurningIND = IndustriesTRAN = transportDOM = Domestic
Regional Emission Estimates:
% by Economic Sector : SO2 Emissions
IndustrialIndustrialDomesticDomestic
TransportTransport Power Power
Regional Emission Estimates:
% by Economic Sector : NOx Emissions
IndustrialIndustrialDomesticDomestic
TransportTransport Power Power
For Southeast Asia and Indian Sub-Continent
Original Fire Count(FC) data(AVHRR)
“Fill-up” Zero Fire Counts using Moving
Average(MA)
“Fill-up” Zero Fire Count using TOMS AI
Satellite Coverage
Cloudiness
Mask Grid (Landcover)
Precipitation(NCEP)
“Extinguish” Fire Count using Mask Grids
Mask Grid (Never Fire)
Moving Averaged Fire Count data (Level 2)
AI Adjusted Fire Count data (Level 3)
5-day Fire Count
Regress. Coeff.(AI/FC)
Regional Emission Estimates:
Biomass Burning Emissions
Urban Contribution to Regional Photochemistry
Regional Impact Analysis: STEM Structure: Modular Modular (on-line and off-line mode)
Meteorology: RAMSRAMS - MM5MM5 - ECMWFECMWF - NCEP NCEP
EmissionsEmissions: Anthropogenic, biogenic and natural
Chemical mechanism: SAPRC’99 SAPRC’99 (Carter,2000)
93 Species, 225 reactions, explicit VOC treatment
Photolysis: NCAR-TUV 4.1 NCAR-TUV 4.1 (30 reactions)
Resolution: Flexible Flexible 80km x 80km for regional and 16km x 16km for urban
Urban Contribution to Regional Photochemistry
Regional Impact Analysis: STEM
Y. Tang (CGRER), 2002
Characterization of Urban Signals
http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ACESS/acess_indhttp://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ACESS/acess_index.htmex.htm
Urban Contribution to Regional Photochemistry
Regional Impact Analysis: STEM-TUV
Y. Tang (CGRER), 2002
Urban Photochemistry
OH Radical Cycle
Air ToxicsAir Toxics
OzoneOzone
Acid RainAcid Rain
VisibilityVisibility
PM2.5PM2.5
Water Water QualityQuality
..OHOHNOx + VOC + OH + hv ---> O3
SOx [or NOx] + NH3 + OH ---> (NH4)2SO4 [or NH4NO3]
SO2 + OH ---> H2SO4NO2 + OH ---> HNO3
VOC + OH --->Orgainic PM
OH <---> Air Toxics (POPs, Hg(II), etc.)
Fine PM(Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM)
NOx + SOx + OH (Lake Acidification,
Eutrophication)
Urban Photochemistry
NOx to VOC Emission Ratio
City Emission Ratio Dhaka 0.2 New Delhi 0.4 Calcutta 0.3 Bombay 0.4 Kanto 0.7 Beijing 0.5
Shanghai 0.6 Chongqing 0.4 Hong Kong 0.8 Seoul-Inchon 1.4 Karachi 0.6 Manila 0.2 Singapore 1.4 Bangkok 0.2
Urban Photochemistry
NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle
32
2
22
22
2
3
)400(3
OOPO
nmPONOhvNO
NORONORO
ROOR
OHROHRH
Organic radical production and photolysis of NO2
VOC’s and N-species compete for OH radical
Urban Photochemistry
NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle
32
2
22
22
2
3
)400(3
OOPO
nmPONOhvNO
NOHONOHO
HOOH
COHOHCO
In polluted environment, CO contributes to O3 production
Urban Photochemistry
NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle
OHHOCOOOHHCHO
HCOhvHCHO
HOCOOhvHCHO
ROHCHOOHHC
NOOHHOHCHOOOHNOCH
222
2
22
242
22224
%)55(
%)45(2
2
HCHO – primary intermediate in VOC-HOx chemistry
Short lived and indicator of primary VOC emissions
Urban Photochemistry
NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle
Organic radical production and photolysis of NO2
VOC’s and N-species compete for OH radical
In polluted environment, CO contributes to O3 production
HCHO – primary intermediate in VOC-HOx chemistry
Short lived and indicator of primary VOC emissions
Urban Photochemistry
NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle
O3 CycleSTEM Box Model Calculations
For City of Seoul,
O3 CycleSTEM Box Model Calculations
For City of Shanghai
Units: ppbv/hr
Urban Photochemistry
NOx-VOC-Ozone Cycle
O3 CycleSTEM Box Model CalculationsDownwind Site from Shanghai
O3 CycleSTEM Box Model Calculations
Downwind Site from Dhaka
Units: ppbv/hr
CO Vs VOC: Megacity points from back trajectoriesCO Vs VOC: Megacity points from back trajectories
CO produced due to photolysis of HCHO, a short lived intermediate from reactions between VOC and HOx
High O3 and CO concentrations are linked with high VOC concentrations, especially with urban plume age < 1.0 day
Urban Photochemistry
Species to Species Comparison
Urban Photochemistry
NOx-VOC Sensitivity Implications
Ozone production in the urban plumes is VOC VOC limitedlimited
Decrease in NOx may actually increase local O3 production
Though at present, NOx is contributing less to local O3 mixing ratios, it is contributing to local NO2 mixing ratios (health criteria pollutantcriteria pollutant) and to O3 production at downwind sites.
Urban Photochemistry
NOx-VOC Sensitivity to O3 Production
VOC sensitive
NOx sensitive
Loss(N
)/(L
oss(N
)+Loss(R
))
Model NOx (ppbv)
Model results along the flight path
Megacity points from back trajectories
Klienman et al., 2000Klienman et al., 2000
Less than 2 day old plumes
EmissionsEmissions
Ambient Ambient ConcentrationConcentration
ExposureExposure
Air Quality Air Quality ManagemeManagement Systemnt System
Policy Policy IssuesIssues
Technical Technical OptionsOptions
Environmental Integrated Assessment
Shanghai Province
Shanghai
3030oo36’36’120120oo36’36’
3232oo
122122oo
East China Sea
Emissions for 1995Emissions for 1995
PMPM1010 : 166 ktons PM/year : 166 ktons PM/year
PMPM2.52.5 : 68 ktons PM/year : 68 ktons PM/year
Sulfur: 458 ktons SOSulfur: 458 ktons SO22/year/year
Population: 19 MillionPopulation: 19 Million
Source: Li and Guttikunda et al., 2002
Environmental Integrated Assessment
Case Study of Shanghai, China
202
0
202
0
BA
UB
AU
Units:Gg/year
Economic SectorEconomic Sector PMPM1010
(C )(C )PMPM1010
(M)(M)PMPM2.52.5
( C)( C)PMPM2.52.5
(M)(M)SOSO22 NONOxx
Power 11.2 5.1 394.3 112.7
Industry 52.1 18.6 19.6 5.3 214.2 73.2
Domestic 5.2 3.6 16.8 5.4
Transport 31.1 16.7 32.0 276.6
Other 0.0 36.4 0.0 9.3 0.0 0.0
Total 99.699.6 55.055.0 45.045.0 14.614.6 657.2657.2 468.0468.0
Economic SectorEconomic Sector PMPM1010
(C )(C )PMPM1010
(M)(M)PMPM2.52.5
( C)( C)PMPM2.52.5
(M)(M)SOSO22 NONOxx
Power 40.6 18.1 214.1 80.4
Industry 49.2 31.5 18.3 9.0 199.9 71.1
Domestic 10.4 6.8 31.9 5.9
Transport 10.1 6.0 11.6 125.8
Other 7.0 18.0 5.9 4.6 1.0 2.5
Total 117.2117.2 49.549.5 55.155.1 13.713.7 458.4458.4 285.8285.8
199
51
995
Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management
Emission Estimates
in 1995in 1995 2020 BAU2020 BAU
120.8 121 121.2 121.4 121.6 121.8 122
30.8
31
31.2
31.4
31.6
31.8
32
5102030405060708090100110120
Units: g/m3 PM10
120.8 121 121.2 121.4 121.6 121.8 122
30.8
31
31.2
31.4
31.6
31.8
32
Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management
Annual Average PM10 Concentrations
Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management
Health Benefit Analysis
POPAPE iijjij ***
Dose-response function coefficientsDose-response function coefficients
Health Endpoint Coefficient Source
Mortality 0.84 Lvovsky et al., 2000
Hospital Visit 0.18 Xu et al., 1995
Emergency Room Visit
0.10 Xu et al., 1995
Hospital Admission
0.80 Dockery and Pope, 1994
Chronic Bronchitis
0.10 Xu and Wang, 1993Coefficient: % change in endpoint per 10 g/m3 change in annual PM10 levels
Incidence rate: rate of occurrence of an endpoint among the population
Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management
Health Benefit Analysis
No. of cases avoidedNo. of cases avoided
Health EndpointHealth Endpoint Power Scenario Power Scenario
(no. of cases)(no. of cases)
Industrial ScenarioIndustrial Scenario
(no. of cases)(no. of cases)
Mortality 2,808 1,790
Hospital Visit 96,293 61,379
Emergency Room Visit
48,506 30,918
Hospital Admission
43,482 27,716
Chronic Bronchitis
1,753 1,117
Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management
Health Benefit Analysis
Units: US$ millions in
1998 dollars Economic EvaluationEconomic Evaluation
Health BenefitsHealth Benefits Power ScenarioPower Scenario Industrial ScenarioIndustrial Scenario
Mortality
Low 139 88
Medium 347 221
High 1,030 656
Morbidity
Low 38 24
Medium 57 36
High 119 76
Work Day Lossess 13 8
Total Benefits 190 – 1,162 121 – 741
(Median Case) (417) (266)
Emissions Emissions & &
CostsCosts
Emissions Emissions & &
CostsCostsDispersion Dispersion ModelingModeling
Dispersion Dispersion ModelingModeling
Depositions Depositions & &
ConcentrationsConcentrations
Depositions Depositions & &
ConcentrationsConcentrations
EnergyEnergyTechnologyTechnology
FuelFuelSectorsSectorsScalesScales
EnergyEnergyTechnologyTechnology
FuelFuelSectorsSectorsScalesScales
ExposureExposure&&
ImpactsImpacts
ExposureExposure&&
ImpactsImpacts
Days & WeeksDays & Weeks
Source ReceptorSource ReceptorMatrixMatrix
SecondsSeconds
Integrated Assessment Modeling System (IAMSIAMS)
Central Heating Plants
Central Heating Plants
Transfer Matrix for
Area Sources
Transfer Matrix for
Area Sources
Domestic Sources
Domestic Sources
IndustrialBoilers
IndustrialBoilers
Transportation Sources Large Point
Sources
Large Point Sources
Emission Sources (PM and SO2)
Transfer Matrix for
LPS Sources
Transfer Matrix for
LPS Sources
PM and Sulfur Concentrations
PM and Sulfur Concentrations
IAMS Model Schematics
Atmospheric Dispersion Calculations
IAMS Software
Tracks Concentration
Changes.
Tracks Emission
Changes.
IAMS Software
Tracks Health Benefits to
Costs Ratio.
Calculates Health Damages for Mortality, Chronic Bronchitis,
Hospital Visits, Work Day Losses.