2012-2013

PARADIGM

AFFIRMATIVES

THE PARADIGMPARADIGMResearchResearch

AIR TRANSPORTATION

MANAGEMENT

INVESTMENT

AIR TRANSPORTATION

MANAGEMENT

INVESTMENT

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Paradigm Research 2012-13 Air Traffic Managemenet Affirmative

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Call us for a free catalog toll-free - 800-837-9973 The Paradigm Affirmatives One – Air Transportation Management Investment by David Cram Helwich Copyright © 2012 by Paradigm Research, Inc. All rights reserved. First Edition Printed In The United States Of America For information on Paradigm Debate Products: PARADIGM RESEARCH P.O. Box 2095 Denton, Texas 76202 Toll-Free 800-837-9973 Fax 940-380-1129 Web /www.oneparadigm.com/ E-mail service@oneparadigm.com All rights are reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced by any means - graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or information storage and retrieval systems - without the written permission of the publisher. Making copies of this book, or any portion, is a violation of United States and international copyright laws.

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Air Traffic Management Affirmative: Table of Contents

CORE MATERIALS NextGen Affirmative: Introduction .................................................................................................... 3 NextGen Affirmative: First Affirmative Constructive ....................................................................... 5

STATUS QUO EXTENSIONS Status Quo: Air Traffic Control Fails Now—Antiquated ................................................................. 13 Status Quo: Air Traffic Control Fails Now—Congestion/Delays .................................................... 15 Status Quo: FAA Fails Now............................................................................................................. 16 Status Quo: Funding Inadequate Now .............................................................................................. 17 Status Quo: NextGen Delayed Now ................................................................................................. 20

HARMS EXTENSIONS Harms: Economy—Aviation Key to Economy ................................................................................ 23 Harms: Economy—Aviation Profitability ........................................................................................ 26 Harms: Economy—Business Aviation Key to Economy ................................................................. 29 Harms: Economy—Competitiveness Internal Links ........................................................................ 30 Harms: Economy—Congestion/Delays Impacts .............................................................................. 33 Harms: Economy—Congestion/Delays Internal Links .................................................................... 35 Harms: Economy—Consumers Internal Links ................................................................................. 36 Harms: Economy—Employment ..................................................................................................... 37 Harms: Economy—General Internal Links ...................................................................................... 38 Harms: Economy—Multiwarrant ..................................................................................................... 40 Harms: Warming—Leadership Add-On 2AC .................................................................................. 42 Harms: Warming—Aviation Emissions Will Increase ..................................................................... 43 Harms: Warming—Aviation Key .................................................................................................... 45 Harms: Warming—Impact Extensions ............................................................................................. 47 Harms: Warming—Must Act Now .................................................................................................. 48 Harms: Warming—NextGen Solves ................................................................................................ 49 Harms: Warming—Warming Real ................................................................................................... 52 Aerospace Add-On: 2AC ................................................................................................................. 53 Aerospace Add-On: Extensions ....................................................................................................... 54

SOLVENCY EXTENSIONS Solvency: FAA Action Key ............................................................................................................. 56 Solvency: Federal Action Key ......................................................................................................... 57 Solvency: Investment Key ............................................................................................................... 58 Solvency: NextGen Delay Bad ........................................................................................................ 60 Solvency: NextGen Key ................................................................................................................... 61 Solvency: Mechanism—Accelerated Deployment ........................................................................... 64 Solvency; Mechanism—Equipage (General) ................................................................................... 67 Solvency: Mechanism—Equipage (Economic Benefits) ................................................................. 69 Solvency: Mechanism—Flight Path Upgrades ................................................................................. 71 Solvency: Mechanism—Funding (General) ..................................................................................... 72 Solvency: Mechanism—Funding (Stability) .................................................................................... 74 Solvency: Now Key ......................................................................................................................... 75 Solvency: Safety .............................................................................................................................. 76

OFFCASE ANSWERS Disadvantage Answers: Budget ....................................................................................................... 78 Topicality Answers: General ............................................................................................................ 80

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NextGen Affirmative: Introduction Flight has revolutionized our society and economy. It is now possible to physically cross vast distances in mere hours, creating new economic opportunities and making the world feel like a literally much smaller place. The aviation sector has become a vital component of the modern economy, aircraft have come to dominant many forms of contemporary military conflict, and a child’s first airplane trip has become something of a rite of passage in many of the more affluent parts of the world. Aviation has experienced an array of technological advances since the first flight by the Wright brothers, with modern aircraft becoming considerably faster, more efficient, and safer than those of previous eras. Unfortunately, the (largely public, at least in the United States) infrastructure that supports aviation is increasingly antiquated, threatening the stifle the industry and constrain the public and private benefits of fast, efficient, and inexpensive air travel. The affirmative case outlined in this book proposes to modernize our nation’s aviation infrastructure by modernizing the air traffic control (ATC) system and other components of the nation’s air travel system. Policymakers and industry members have long recognized the need to improve the ATC infrastructure. The federal government has adopted a broad policy initiative called ‘NextGen’ (for ‘next generation’) designed to upgrade the nation’s aviation infrastructure, including the ATC system. A recent report outlines the broad strokes of this initiative:

The aviation system that is part of the life-blood of our economy is poised to face rising demand with limited additional capacity and outdated technology. This could put considerable stress on the system in terms of congestion and efficiency. The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) represents a series of incremental policies, procedures, and technological changes to modernize the air traffic control (ATC) system into a more efficient, state-of-the-art satellite-based system. On the technology side, NextGen is composed of two main components: aircraft based equipment that records and transmits the exact location of the aircraft using Global Positioning System (GPS), and ground based infrastructure that can receive and analyze the GPS data. Infrastructural improvements also entail devising more direct and fuel-efficient routes, and upgrading the computer and backup system used at 20 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) air traffic control centers nationwide. The infrastructure implementation is currently in the hands of the FAA and funded by the Airport and Airway Trust Fund (AATF), while aircraft equipage is expected to be paid for by the operators. [Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 1]

These new capacities are described in greater detail in a report from the federal Government Accountability Office (GAO): NextGen involves changes to every aspect of air transportation (see fig. 2). NextGen requires the acquisition of new integrated systems (both software and hardware), flight procedures, aircraft performance capabilities, and supporting infrastructure to transform the current air transportation system into one that uses satellite-based surveillance and navigation operations instead of ground-based radar. These changes are intended to increase the efficiency and capacity of the air transportation system while maintaining safety and accommodating anticipated future growth. The planning for NextGen began in 200313 and is now focused on implementing improvements in the midterm (by 2018) and in the far term (by 2025). [Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, “Air Traffic Control Modernization: Management Challenges Associated with Program Costs and Schedules Could Hinder NextGen Implementation,” Government Accountability Office, GAO-12-223, 2—12, p. 7]

For a more detailed overview of the relevant programs and technologies, you can visit the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) website, http://www.faa.gov. The government’s justification for the system is summarized here: http://www.faa.gov/nextgen/why_nextgen_matters/. The affirmative case included here is focused predominantly on the ATC components of NextGen, although it also includes evidence on the value of the NextGen initiative as a whole and a few cards dealing with specific, non-ATC system components. The inherency contention argues that despite the FAA’s best efforts, the NextGen initiative is largely failing, both because of funding shortfalls and a number of institutional problems. Many programs are behind schedule and poorly funded, as evidenced by a number of comprehensive studies conducted by the GAO and other analysts. As a result, confidence in the NextGen initiative is waning among both aviation industry representatives and policy makers, further complicating NextGen’s rollout since industry cooperation (particularly in the adoption of NextGen-enabled equipment on private aircraft) is vital to the initiative’s success. This dire situation is further compounded by the political wrangling surrounding federal funding for the FAA and other transportation programs, with department members and industry concerns both worried that money will dry up for various NextGen measures in the near future. Various components of the initiative are thus quite delayed, and there is widespread fear that some parts of NextGen may never be implemented.

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NextGen Affirmative: Introduction [cont’d] Analysts and advocates alike claim that even a partial failure of NextGen would have catastrophic consequences for the aviation industry and the broader economy. Demand for air travel is set to surge, and the current ATC system is not up to the challenge. Delays are becoming the norm in our nation’s airports, industry costs are increasing unnecessarily, and some observers claim that we are headed toward “gridlock in the skies.” For a variety of reasons, aviation is important to the economy, as a facilitator of trade, as a job creator, and as a means of improving productivity across virtually every sector of the economy. Proponents claim that the competitiveness of the entire economy is at risk. Additionally, these delays and inefficient flight routes also increase aircraft emission of carbon dioxide and a variety of other greenhouse gases and other air pollutants, threatening human health and contributing significantly to the problems of global climate change. The plan proposes to accelerate the rollout of NextGen and to guarantee funding for the federal components of the initiatives, which by their nature would be predominantly focused on the ATC system, a federal responsibility. An improved air traffic control system would help address the current and coming congestion problems, making the entire aviation sector more efficient and thus benefiting the broader economy There would also likely be a direct stimulus effect from increased ATC infrastructure spending. The “plan key to the economy” cards are excellent. Several analysts have studied the effects of NextGen acceleration, and they agree that quicker adoption would both cut pollution from the aviation sector and have a significant, positive impact on the nation’s economy. We have also included an add-on advantage that claims that the plan would bolster the aerospace sector, which is a key part of overall American leadership. One solvency question not addressed specifically by the plan is whether the government should be involved in providing some funding for the “equipage” of private aircraft with NextGen-enabled systems. There are some very good solvency advocates for such funding, and you may want to consider modifying your case to include a more explicit defense of federal equipage funding. This case has strong advantages and a robust “federal key” warrant, which should help defend it against the ubiquitous states counterplan. NextGen has a lot to recommend it, both as a public policy option and as a potentially potent affirmative case on this year’s transportation infrastructure topic. Best of luck!

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NextGen Affirmative: First Affirmative Constructive

OBSERVATION ONE: Status Quo A. Our air traffic control system is failing—congestion, antiquated technology threaten the entire aviation sector

Dr. Dorothy Robyn, principal, The Brattle Group and economic consultant, “Air Support: Creating a Safer and More Reliable Air Traffic Control System,” DISCUSSION PAPER, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 7—08, p. 5. Our nation’s air traffic control system is an essential input to this vital sector of the economy. The air traffic control system is a network of radar, navigation aids, and about thirty-six thousand workers whose job it is to keep planes at a safe distance from one another and to guide them along an efficient flight path. The system is operated by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), an agency of the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). The FAA also regulates the safety of all aspects of civil aviation, including the operation of the air traffic control system itself. The United States has the busiest airspace of any country: air traffic controllers safely orchestrate more than thirty thousand commercial flights a day—an impressive feat. However, the system has struggled to keep up with the increase in demand. The most visible symptom of the underlying problem is flight delays. In 2007, delays as measured by DOT cost U.S. airlines and passengers $12 billion to $14 billion in wasted fuel and time. The toll was far higher if one counts flight cancellations and the delays concealed by airlines’ padded schedules. Moreover, the fuel burned during last year’s flight delays generated 18 million tons of carbon dioxide—a nontrivial contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. The second symptom of the underlying problem is the FAA’s reliance on antiquated technology. The limited precision of 1950s-era radar requires controllers to maintain wide safety buffers between aircraft, thus limiting airspace capacity. Pilots must zigzag between terrestrial navigation aids, consuming fuel and passengers’ time. The third symptom is what it costs the air traffic control system to provide a unit of service, which has increased by 45 percent in the past decade.

B. Current modernization efforts under the government’s NextGen program are inadequate—need a stable source of funding

Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 2. Fourth, NextGen faces funding issues that pose some very difficult policy decisions. Work on the ground infrastructure aspect of NextGen is currently funded by the Facilities and Equipment account of the AATF and some progress, albeit slow, has been made on this project. However, recent reports by the Congressional Budget Office and the Government Accountability Office show that current AATF revenues are inadequate to fund NextGen. Despite recent resolution over the long overdue FAA reauthorization bill, little progress has been regarding securing a full-fledged modernization funding plan. The current bill authorizes a flat amount of $2.731 billion over four years for NextGen and funding is still subject to annual appropriation. A project that is already endangered by uncertainties regarding its worth would benefit from a stable and adequate funding source.

C. NextGen’s rollout is too slow—will take up to 25 years to fully implement Steven A. Morrison, chair, Department of Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “Delayed! U.S. Aviation Infrastructure Policy at a Crossroads,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 27. Unfortunately, the delays that the FAA has experienced with implementing experimental satellite-based systems suggest that NextGen will take more than the projected twenty-five years to become fully operational and that the current system may eventually have to impose additional delays on aircraft to handle growing traffic volumes safely. The GAO has concluded that the FAA has failed to provide the expertise to make the transition to NextGen and has urged it to seek assistance from a third party.41 In addition, because the old equipment continues to consume vast amounts of money for operations and maintenance, it will need to be shut down to implement new navigational procedures. Eventually, all the facilities associated with the current system will be eliminated or consolidated as NextGen is managed and operated with fewer and more technologically up-to-date facilities. Such disinvestment and consolidation will undoubtedly face political resistance that slows the implementation of NextGen because members of Congress will attempt to keep navigational aids and jobs in their districts.42

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NextGen Affirmative: First Affirmative Constructive [cont’d]

OBSERVATION TWO: Harms A. Improved implementation of NextGen is vital to the competitiveness of the entire aviation industry— the entire economy is at risk otherwise

Thomas Hendricks, Vice President for Operations and Safety, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. NextGen is designed to transform the current air traffic management system that which relies on ground-based navigation and positioning signals from ground-based facilities into a modern system using satellite-based Global Positioning System (GPS) signals for navigation and surveillance, which will provide dramatic efficiency and environmental improvements. The successful implementation of NextGen is critical to the viability and global competitiveness of civil aviation in the United States. Airlines, their employees, the communities that they serve and the U.S. economy all have an important stake in that success. The current National Airspace System (NAS), despite being the most complex aviation system in the world, is extraordinarily safe. That remarkable safety record reflects the determined efforts of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and its employees, as well as aviation stakeholders, including airlines and their employees. We are grateful for the support and oversight provided by this subcommittee, which also has played a key role in helping shape this success. As the subcommittee knows all too well, however, the system has been showing its age for some time. That reflects two basic realities: increases in demand over the years and the technological constraints of current radar, navigation, and communications systems. Although these systems have been repeatedly upgraded, they have inherent limitations. For example, at busy airports, congested air traffic control communications is a recurrent problem. That is a limitation that will not go away: Only one person can speak at a time on a radio. NextGen's planned use of digital data communications will alleviate that problem. Reliance on these legacy systems is costly because they cannot meet current demands in important areas of the NAS, most notably in the New York area. An FAA-commissioned study published last November estimated that the total cost of U.S. air transportation delays in 2007 was $31.2 billion n1. Passengers, according to the study, suffered estimated losses of $16.7 billion because of schedule buffers, delayed flights, flight cancellations and missed connections. Costs to airlines were estimated at $8.3 billion, attributable to increased fuel, crew and maintenance expenses. The study concluded that air transportation delays decreased the U.S. gross domestic product by $4 billion. These costs paint a picture of a system that cannot handle projected demand. Without significant modernization of the system, we will experience the inexorable spread of airspace congestion, which will constrict air travel and multiply those costs. Not only will users suffer from that ever worsening burden, so will the national economy. The implications of this situation are profound because of aviation's importance to the economy. In August 2011, the FAA Air Traffic Organization (ATO) published "The Economic Impact of Civil Aviation on the U.S. Economy," finding that commercial aviation was ultimately responsible for 5.2 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, helping generate $ 1.3 trillion in annual economic activity, $394 billion in annual personal earnings and 10.2 million jobs. Concern about the future of airspace management, therefore, is not a parochial consideration. This is not "inside baseball." Aviation is one of the principal drivers of the U.S. economy. Future constraints to aviation will thwart economic activity and our international competitiveness. It also will disadvantage airline employees. While the importance of NextGen is clear, its implementation has been complicated and significant issues remain unresolved. It is not a turnkey operation. Instead, NextGen is an intricate, long-term undertaking. That has important implications for mapping out implementation policies as we go forward.

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NextGen Affirmative: First Affirmative Constructive [cont’d]

B. Our current underinvestment in air travel infrastructure threatens the entire economy Greg Principato, president, Airports Council International-North America, “Why We Should Invest Today in ‘Airports Inc.’,” THE HILL, Congress Blog, 3—27—12, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/labor/218525-faa-why-we-should-invest-today-in-airports-inc, accessed 4-9-12. With the latest Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecast predicting a doubling of passengers and cargo by 2030, the current funding system is not up to the job of ensuring airports will have the infrastructure they need to handle such dramatic increases in traffic. This will have far-reaching consequences. Commercial airports are powerful economic engines, generating 10.5 million jobs and $1.2 trillion for the U.S. economy, according to a new Airports Council International-North America study. Across the country, workers and businesses count on local airports to attract investment and move people and goods around the world. Since 2001, the total number of jobs associated with airports has increased by more than 50 percent. Despite unprecedented growth and clear evidence of the economic benefits of infrastructure investments, airports expect to have $80 billion in unmet needs through 2015 because of the flawed system used to pay for infrastructure projects. That has not always been the case. Airports generated millions of jobs and trillions of dollars for local communities between 2001 and 2010 because President Bill Clinton and Congress made two decisions to improve airport infrastructure planning and investment in 2000. The first decision allowed local communities to raise more money to finance airport improvements by giving them the authority to increase the passenger facility charge from $3 to $4.50. This helped meet local needs by expanding airport capacity to serve more passengers, handle more cargo, attract more air service and most important: promote business and commerce. The second decision increased investments in the federal Airport Improvement Program (AIP) so that the money users pay into the nation’s Airport and Airway Trust Fund could be reinvested into the system, including the airports where all of this economic activity begins and ends. The money for this comes from the aviation trust fund which is funded by users. Growth in jobs and business activity took place because we made a national decision to invest in the future – the airports that serve as the economic hubs of our national aviation system.

C. Aviation drives the entire economy—need an improve air traffic control system Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. As we have noted on many occasions, the U.S. airline industry is not simply an important sector of the national economy; its services drives our entire economy. Air transportation is an indispensable element of America’s infrastructure and our nation’s economic well-being. The airline industry is the foundation of the commercial aviation sector, which comprises airlines, airports, manufacturers and associated vendors. U.S. commercial aviation ultimately drives more than $1 trillion per year in U.S. economic activity and more than 10 million U.S. jobs. n1 By any measure, the U.S. airline industry is a valuable national asset and its continued economic health should be a national priority. Recent events illustrate the positive impact that a healthy industry can have on our national economy. Prior to the fourth quarter of 2008, U.S. airlines transported more than two million passengers on a typical day, operating approximately 30,000 flights per day and directly employing more than 500,000 people to do so. Airlines were forced to reduce operations and staffing in the fourth quarter of 2008 due to the meteoric rise of jet fuel prices earlier that year. As a result, the industry lost an estimated $8 billion in 2008. Because of the current recession, airlines have been unable to restore those operations and jobs, and now employ less than 500,000 people, n2 with the prospect of further cutbacks if the economy continues to falter or if more external shocks like the 2009 H1N1 virus occur. On April 21, 2009, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported that scheduled passenger airlines employed 6.6 percent fewer workers in February 2009 than in February 2008, making eight consecutive months of job losses in the industry. It is clear from these events that a healthy industry drives high-paying jobs that, in turn, can help drive the economy back to health. For this reason, government policies in all areas should foster financial stability and growth in the airline industry. Commercial air service also is critical to the small communities of our nation. For this reason, we firmly support the continuation of a strong Essential Air Service Program. The U.S. airline industry cannot sustain its vital role of transporting people and goods, and continue to be a national economic engine, if the government infrastructure that it depends on, the ATC system, remains an impediment to efficiency and growth. U.S. airlines risk becoming a wasting national asset if the industry’s fundamental features - speed, dependability and efficiency - are undermined by an obsolete ATC system.

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NextGen Affirmative: First Affirmative Constructive [cont’d]

D. U.S. economic decline triggers every major impact Dr. Matthew Harris and Jennifer Burrows, National Intelligence Council, “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis,” WASHINGTON QUARTERLY v. 32 n. 2, 4—09, Ebsco. Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample Revisiting the Future opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, history may be more instructive than ever. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated, the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. For that reason, the ways in which the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East. Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable, worries about a nuclear-armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, short warning and missile flight times, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentially leading to escalating crises. 36 Types of conflict that the world continues to experience, such as over resources, could reemerge, particularly if protectionism grows and there is a resort to neo-mercantilist practices. Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies. In the worst case, this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regime. Even actions short of war, however, will have important geopolitical implications. Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts, such as China’s and India’s development of blue water naval capabilities. If the fiscal stimulus focus for these countries indeed turns inward, one of the most obvious funding targets may be military. Buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves, but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.

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NextGen Affirmative: First Affirmative Constructive [cont’d]

E. Aviation sector is currently a major contributor to climate change Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 5—6—08, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08706t.pdf, accessed 4-9-12. Aviation-related activities contribute to local air pollution and produce greenhouse gases that cause climate change. Aircraft account for about 70 to 80 percent of aviation emissions, producing emissions that mainly affect air quality below 3,000 feet and increase greenhouse gases at higher altitudes. At ground level, airport operations, including those of motor vehicles traveling to and from the airport, ground service equipment, and stationary sources such as incinerators and boilers, also produce emissions. Together, aircraft operations in the vicinity of the airport and other airport sources produce emissions such as carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, unburned hydrocarbons, hazardous air pollutants, and ozone that contribute to air pollution. In addition, these sources emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change, but aircraft operations in the upper atmosphere are the primary source of aviation-related greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide is both the primary aircraft emission and the primary contributor to climate change. It survives in the atmosphere for over 100 years. Furthermore, other gases and particles emitted by aircraft—including water vapor, nitrogen oxides, soot, contrails, and sulfate—can also have an impact on climate, but the magnitude of this impact is unknown, according to FAA. Figure 1 illustrates aviation’s impact on air quality and climate.

F. Additional infrastructure upgrades are necessary to cut CO2 emissions from the entire aviation sector Future of Aviation Advisory Committee (FAAC), FINAL REPORT, U.S. Department of Transportation, 4--11--11, p. 15. Environmental impacts that accompany aviation growth represent a challenge to the United States‘ ability to accommodate increases in the demand for air transportation. Greater levels of environmental impacts and associated energy issues will be critical constraints on the capacity and flexibility of the National Airspace System (NAS) unless adequately addressed and mitigated. Improving aviation‘s environmental footprint and meeting energy challenges are vital elements of securing the future economic health and sustainability of the U.S. aviation industry. Environmental issues, especially those related to climate change, are increasingly shaping aviation‘s future growth internationally. The industry goals of carbon-neutral growth by 2020 and a 50 percent reduction in the total CO2 footprint of aviation by 2050 require a combination of actions. It is estimated that operational improvements can achieve as much as a 12 percent reduction in aviation fuel-burn and CO2, although a more conservative estimate is closer to a still substantial 5 percent reduction. Operational and infrastructure improvements offer the most substantial near-term reductions in carbon emissions and energy use, while they also reduce operating costs and improve the U.S. aviation industry‘s competitiveness.

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NextGen Affirmative: First Affirmative Constructive [cont’d]

G. Overwhelming consensus proves that warming is real, human caused, and requires immediate action— claims to the contrary are just wrong

Kevin Trenbeth, Distinguished Senior Scientist, Climate Analysis Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research et al., writing with over 30 other distinguished climate researchers, “Check with Climate Scientists for Views on Climate,” WALL STREET JOURNAL, letter to the editor, 2—1—12, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204740904577193270727472662.html, accessed 4-6-12. Do you consult your dentist about your heart condition? In science, as in any area, reputations are based on knowledge and expertise in a field and on published, peer-reviewed work. If you need surgery, you want a highly experienced expert in the field who has done a large number of the proposed operations. You published "No Need to Panic About Global Warming" (op-ed, Jan. 27) on climate change by the climate-science equivalent of dentists practicing cardiology. While accomplished in their own fields, most of these authors have no expertise in climate science. The few authors who have such expertise are known to have extreme views that are out of step with nearly every other climate expert. This happens in nearly every field of science. For example, there is a retrovirus expert who does not accept that HIV causes AIDS. And it is instructive to recall that a few scientists continued to state that smoking did not cause cancer, long after that was settled science. Climate experts know that the long-term warming trend has not abated in the past decade. In fact, it was the warmest decade on record. Observations show unequivocally that our planet is getting hotter. And computer models have recently shown that during periods when there is a smaller increase of surface temperatures, warming is occurring elsewhere in the climate system, typically in the deep ocean. Such periods are a relatively common climate phenomenon, are consistent with our physical understanding of how the climate system works, and certainly do not invalidate our understanding of human-induced warming or the models used to simulate that warming. Thus, climate experts also know what one of us, Kevin Trenberth, actually meant by the out-of-context, misrepresented quote used in the op-ed. Mr. Trenberth was lamenting the inadequacy of observing systems to fully monitor warming trends in the deep ocean and other aspects of the short-term variations that always occur, together with the long-term human-induced warming trend. The National Academy of Sciences of the U.S. (set up by President Abraham Lincoln to advise on scientific issues), as well as major national academies of science around the world and every other authoritative body of scientists active in climate research have stated that the science is clear: The world is heating up and humans are primarily responsible. Impacts are already apparent and will increase. Reducing future impacts will require significant reductions in emissions of heat-trapping gases. Research shows that more than 97% of scientists actively publishing in the field agree that climate change is real and human caused. It would be an act of recklessness for any political leader to disregard the weight of evidence and ignore the enormous risks that climate change clearly poses. In addition, there is very clear evidence that investing in the transition to a low-carbon economy will not only allow the world to avoid the worst risks of climate change, but could also drive decades of economic growth. Just what the doctor ordered.

H. Warming risks the end of humanity—we need to cut emissions now Ronnie Cummins and Will Allen, Organic Consumers Association, "Climate Catastrophe: Surviving the 21st Century," 2--14--10, http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/02/14-6, accessed 6-20-12. The hour is late. Leading climate scientists such as James Hansen are literally shouting at the top of their lungs that the world needs to reduce emissions by 20-40% as soon as possible, and 80-90% by the year 2050, if we are to avoid climate chaos, crop failures, endless wars, melting of the polar icecaps, and a disastrous rise in ocean levels. Either we radically reduce CO2 and carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e, which includes all GHGs, not just CO2) pollutants (currently at 390 parts per million and rising 2 ppm per year) to 350 ppm, including agriculture-derived methane and nitrous oxide pollution, or else survival for the present and future generations is in jeopardy. As scientists warned at Copenhagen, business as usual and a corresponding 7-8.6 degree Fahrenheit rise in global temperatures means that the carrying capacity of the Earth in 2100 will be reduced to one billion people. Under this hellish scenario, billions will die of thirst, cold, heat, disease, war, and starvation.

Paradigm Research 2012-13 Air Traffic Managemenet Affirmative

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NextGen Affirmative: First Affirmative Constructive [cont’d]

PLAN The United States federal government should substantially increase its investment in the Next Generation Air Traffic Management System. Funding and enforcement are guaranteed.

OBSERVATION THREE: Solvency A. Successful rollout of NextGen if key to FAA credibility, program success

Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, “Next Generation Air Transportation System: FAA Has Made Some Progress in Implementation, but Delays Threaten to Impact Costs and Benefits,” Government Accountability Office, GAO-12-141T, 10—5—11, p. 6. To maintain credibility with aircraft operators that NextGen will be implemented, FAA must deliver systems and capabilities on time so that operators have incentives to invest in the avionics that will enable NextGen to operate as planned. As we have previously reported, a past FAA program’s cancellation contributed to skepticism about FAA’s commitment to follow through with its plans. That industry skepticism, which we have found lingers today, could delay the time when significant NextGen benefits—such as increased capacity and more direct, fuel-saving routing—are realized. A number of NextGen benefits depend upon having a critical mass of properly equipped aircraft. Reaching that critical mass is a significant challenge because the first aircraft operators to equip will not obtain a return on their investment until many other operators also equip.

B. An accelerated rollout means we can enjoy the benefits of NextGen now Jim May, President & CEO, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. By accelerating several key NextGen components and investing in proven technologies, much of NextGen can be transformed into NowGen to deliver immediate benefits. NowGen accelerates the manufacture and installation of required avionics, the installation of associated ground infrastructure and the development and implementation of new procedures. Instead of achieving roughly 12 percent fleet readiness by 2012 under the existing FAA NextGen schedule, NowGen delivers 100 percent fleet readiness in 2012. As a result, NowGen delivers tremendous public benefits immediately and total benefits will exceed costs as early as 2010. NowGen will work because it focuses on accelerating five key proven technologies and implementing related procedures. These are: * Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B). ADS-B requires new equipment, ground infrastructure, airspace revisions and pilot procedures using a GPS source. The cost and complexity of equipment installation varies significantly depending on current aircraft configuration. ADS-B enables an aircraft to constantly broadcast its current position simultaneously to air traffic controllers and other aircraft. Utilizing GPS to display an aircraft’s position more accurately and frequently enables more efficient use of existing airspace because aircraft separation standards can be safely reduced. Routing efficiencies reduce fuel burn and emissions. * Area Navigation (RNAV)/Required Navigation Performance (RNP). RNAV/RNP requires new onboard equipment and approved procedures. Installation or upgrades to existing flight-management systems, installation of a GPS position source and integration with new and existing cockpit displays drive equipment costs. Extensive revisions to airspace and pilot procedures will be needed. RNAV enables aircraft to fly on any path within coverage of ground- or space-based navigation aids, permitting more direct operations. New flight-path procedures decrease the number of miles flown, reducing fuel burn and emissions. Like RNAV, RNP enables aircraft to fly on any path within GPS coverage, and also includes an onboard performance-monitoring capability; RNP enables closer en route spacing and permits more precise and consistent departures/arrivals. * Electronic Display Upgrades. Some aircraft will require the addition of new specialized display screens to utilize ADS-B and RNAV/RNP; some will require a supplemental display, such as an Electronic Flight Bag. These screens will accurately display an airplane’s position relative to itself and other aircraft. These displays can also be used to show new optimum flight paths. * Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS). GBAS provides additional information to aircraft to allow GPS to be used for landings in low-visibility conditions, minimizing schedule disruptions due to weather and enabling more environmentally friendly procedures. It requires new equipment, ground infrastructure and procedures. Special avionics are necessary to receive the corrected GPS signal information and must be integrated with the aircraft’s flight-management system. GBAS also requires several antennas, a broadcast transmitter and a processing unit at each airport. In some cases, a single installation can service multiple airports due to its 30-mile-radius effective range. * Localizer Performance with Vertical Guidance (LPV). LPV procedures leverage satellite-based precision to improve safety and provide all-weather access at thousands of general aviation airports. Using GPS and leveraging the existing Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) enables more accurate flight-path guidance. Action is limited to the development, certification and publishing of procedures. In addition to the many operational, environmental and customer-service benefits discussed above, NowGen also will throw off significant stimulative benefits. We estimate that NowGen will yield over $12 billion in U.S. economic benefits through 2012, including $7.4 billion in job creation - as many as 167,000 U.S. jobs distributed widely across the country. These are important societal benefits as the country struggles to recover from the current recession.

Paradigm Research 2012-13 Air Traffic Managemenet Affirmative

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NextGen Affirmative: First Affirmative Constructive [cont’d]

C. Sustained funding and commitment are vital to NextGen’s successful implementation Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 2. In order for NextGen to succeed, there must be greater certainty about potential benefits and costs. In the highly competitive low profit-margin airline industry, few want to take on the burden of paying for something that spreads speculative benefits so widely. It will also be essential to have a mechanism that raises sufficient capital for NextGen infrastructure in a transparent and equitable manner, while imposing minimal burdens on those who pay for it. Without a sustainable, stable, and reliable strategy for both continued infrastructural improvements and incentives for equipage, there is no guarantee that NextGen can be implemented in a timely and cost-effective manner. Without strong political leadership, a clear and unbiased delineation of costs and benefits, a transparent source of funds, and incentives for operators to equip, it is unlikely that NextGen benefits can be delivered in a timely manner if at all.

D. Federal action is key to catalyzing industry efforts Captain Moak, President, Air Line Pilots Association International, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. And beyond funding, we need a comprehensive NextGen strategy, driven by the government. Funding from industry will not come without a clear path forward. For example, aircraft manufacturers are currently delivering aircraft off the production line that possess capabilities that cannot be utilized either because the current infrastructure is not prepared to use the technology or the necessary operational procedures have not been approved. In addition, the government has required the installation of NextGen equipment that does not meet the end-state standard necessary to achieve the desired goal This is irresponsible. With a project of this magnitude and complexity, a well-coordinated, fully integrated plan, known to and agreed upon by all stakeholders, along with supporting equipment standards, is critical. Safety initiatives, as well as hardware and software projects by a wide variety of aerospace companies and the FAA are the component parts of NextGen. They must be developed in a tightly coordinated manner on specific time lines to support critical interrelationships with a variety of U.S. and international efforts.

D. Investment in accelerating NextGen is key to our economy, global competitiveness TRAVEL PULSE, “ATA: NextGen Air Traffic Control Will Boost U.S. Economy,” 2—9—11, http://www.travelpulse.com/ata-nextgen-air-traffic-control-will-boost-us-economy.html, accessed 4-26-12. The chief executive of the Air Transport Association of America (ATA), the industry trade organization for the leading U.S. airlines, has testified before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee on reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), calling for investment in the nation's air traffic control system to create jobs, grow the economy and enable global competitiveness. Commercial aviation drives $1.2 trillion in economic activity annually, supports nearly 11 million jobs and is responsible for more than 5 percent of the nation's gross domestic product. "No other industry has such a powerful economic multiplier effect as commercial aviation," said ATA President and CEO Nicholas E. Calio. "Aviation provides the key connections that make the economy grow. If we want to double our nation's exports over the next five years, there is no way to do it without commercial aviation." ATA called on Congress to view FAA reauthorization as a jobs bill, as an investment in NextGen air traffic management that will lead to the creation of 150,000 jobs immediately, and more over time. Other countries, including China, are investing heavily in their aviation infrastructure, to help transform their economies. China recently announced the equivalent of a $228 billion investment in aviation. "[NextGen] is about the underlying strength of the U.S. economy and the ability of American industries to compete -- and win -- on the global stage," Calio said. "The antiquated, ground-based air traffic control system in place today is a major drag on productivity and job creation. By accelerating NextGen, more than 150,000 jobs can be created, fuel consumption can be cut by as much as 12 percent and delays, which cost the United States $31 billion in 2007 alone, can be reduced." ATA urged that Congress and the administration craft a cohesive national airline strategy that would include accelerated deployment of NextGen and a rationalizing of the industry's tax burden, which has soared from $3.7 billion in 1990 to more than $16 billion in 2010.

Paradigm Research 2012-13 Air Traffic Managemenet Affirmative

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Status Quo: Air Traffic Control Fails Now—Antiquated

1. Current system cannot meet demand—threatens the economy Daniel Bourgeois, M.S., Science, Technology and Public Policy, “The Next Generation Air Transportation System: An Answer to Solve Airport Efficiency?” M.S. Thesis Submitted to the Public Policy Program, Rochester Institute of Technology, 8—10, p. 69-70. The current ATC system cannot handle this projected future demand, even if the forecast is reduced to account for current economic or terrorist conditions. Even if the forecasted growth is significantly reduced, today’s ATC system is so inefficient that it will not be able to handle a modest increase in activity. The airline industry is the foundation of the commercial aviation sector, which comprises airlines, airports, manufacturers and associated vendors. U.S. commercial aviation ultimately drives $1.2 trillion per year in U.S. economic activity and 11 million U.S. jobs which is roughly 5.6% of the Gross Domestic Product (Pipes, 2008). By any measure, the U.S. airline industry is a valuable national asset and its continued economic health should be a matter of governmental concern because of the airlines size and contribution (May, 2009).

2. Air transport infrastructure is antiquated—need to update the air traffic control system Brina Milikowsky, researcher, Building America’s Future Educational Fund, BUILDING AMERICA’S FUTURE: FALLING APART AND FALLING BEHIND, Transportation Infrastructure Report 2011, p. 20. Our outdated aviation system doesn’t serve 21st-century travelers well for longer distance travel between cities either. The World Economic Forum ranks U.S. air transport infrastructure 32nd in the world, behind countries like Panama, Chile, and Malaysia. Inefficiencies in the antiquated air traffic control system make it a leading cause of air traffic congestion in U.S. airspace. The United States has the world’s worst air traffic congestion—a quarter of flights in the U.S. arrive more than 15 minutes late, and the national average for all delayed flights in the U.S. (about 56 minutes) is twice that of Europe’s average.16 Air traffic control is managed by the same ground-based, radar system developed in the 1950s, even though cutting-edge data-driven and satellite-based systems are being implemented in other parts of the world. Thirty-seven percent of delays can be attributed to this outdated technology; in the three New York City airports, nearly two-thirds of delays are caused by the air traffic control system, creating a ripple effect of delays around the country.17

3. FAA is currently responsible for many delays, tends to blame on the weather Steven A. Morrison, Professor, Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “The Effect of FAA Expenditures on Air Travel Delays,” JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS v. 63, 2008, p. 670. Air travel is delayed when an aircraft’s actual, as opposed to scheduled, travel time (including both time on the ground and time in the air) exceeds its unimpeded travel time. According to the FAA, some 70 percent of delays are caused by weather that severely impairs visibility, 15–20 percent by traffic volume (i.e., operations, overflights, and seconds) that exceeds available airport capacity and airspace, and about 10 percent by miscellaneous problems such as air traffic control equipment malfunctions and runway closures. Airlines dispute this breakdown and argue that the FAA blames most delays on weather to avoid facing its shortcomings in management, staffing, procurement, and technology.

4. The current air traffic control system is woefully inadequate Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) air traffic control (ATC) services are central to the ability of airlines to operate efficiently and, ultimately, sustain timely, reliable, economically viable air service for their customers. Airline operations only can be as efficient as the ATC system allows. Inefficient services drive unnecessary costs for airlines and their customers - both passengers and shippers. Today’s ATC services are woefully inadequate, depriving the flying public - and the U.S. public at large - of substantial economic and environmental benefits.

Paradigm Research 2012-13 Air Traffic Managemenet Affirmative

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Status Quo: Air Traffic Control Fails Now—Antiquated [cont’d]

5. Current system is antiquated, subject to delays Deloitte, TRANSPFORMING THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A BUSINESS CASE FOR PROGRAM ACCELERATION, 7—11, p. 7. The current ground based system of radar, radio beacons, voice communications and related systems and processes requires certain safety procedures to be followed, such as minimum separation distances between aircraft both vertically and horizontally, and altitude of flight and reserves for fuel. These systems and processes were designed when air traffic was limited and navigation, weather forecasting and communications technology was much less mature, and certainly before the invention and deployment of the game changing U.S. government owned global positioning system (GPS). Air travel has become more frequent, the price of fuel has increased, and the dependence on proper operation of the system has become more acute. Disruptions such as weather delays and capacity limitation at airports have increased costs to airlines, passengers and the global economy.

Paradigm Research 2012-13 Air Traffic Managemenet Affirmative

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Status Quo: Air Traffic Control Fails Now—Congestion/Delays

1. Aviation infrastructure is lacking—inadequate control systems, congestion ECONOMIST, “Life in the Slow Lane,” 4—28—11, http://www.economist.com/node/18620944, accessed 5-20-12. Air travel is no relief. Airport delays at hubs like Chicago and Atlanta are as bad as any in Europe. Air travel still relies on a ground-based tracking system from the 1950s, which forces planes to use inefficient routes in order to stay in contact with controllers. The system’s imprecision obliges controllers to keep more distance between air traffic, reducing the number of planes that can fly in the available space. And this is not the system’s only bottleneck. Overbooked airports frequently lead to runway congestion, forcing travellers to spend long hours stranded on the tarmac while they wait to take off or disembark. Meanwhile, security and immigration procedures in American airports drive travellers to the brink of rebellion.

2. Old technology causes significant delays throughout the system—multiple reasons

Dr. Dorothy Robyn, principal, The Brattle Group and economic consultant, “Air Support: Creating a Safer and More Reliable Air Traffic Control System,” DISCUSSION PAPER, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 7—08, p. 12-13. Flight delays in part reflect the FAA’s continued reliance on fifty-year-old technology. Controllers use 1950s-era, ground-based radar to route planes, and pilots and controllers communicate using analog, voice-only radios (i.e., no e-mail or instant messaging). As reported by Randall Lane in Forbes (1996), well into the 1990s, the FAA was the largest U.S. buyer of vacuum tubes. The vacuum tubes, which were used in the FAA’s decades-old radar and communications systems, had to be purchased from other countries because they were no longer produced in the United States (Clinton 1995). In many facilities, controllers still keep track of aircraft using paper strips. This antiquated and inefficient technology represents a second symptom of the problem with our air traffic control system. Outdated technology seriously limits the capacity of the system, contributing to delays. In addition, it imposes nondelay costs on airlines, passengers, and the environment. The limited precision of the FAA’s aging radar requires controllers to maintain wide safety buffers between aircraft, which is a key constraint on airway and runway capacity. Planes must zigzag between terrestrial navigation aids rather than fly the most direct routes, consuming fuel and passenger time. Finally, aging equipment requires a high level of costly maintenance. Antiquated technology is a reflection of the FAA’s chronically poor performance when it comes to the development and adoption of new technology. In their book on air traffic service provision in the United States and other countries (Managing the Skies: Public Policy, Organization and Financing of Air Traffic Management), Clinton Oster and John Strong observe that “most FAA modernization projects have a record of (1) promising more capability than they ultimately deliver, (2) being completed later than promised, and (3) costing far more by the time they are completed than the initial cost estimates” (Oster and Strong 2007, 146–47).

Paradigm Research 2012-13 Air Traffic Managemenet Affirmative

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Status Quo: FAA Fails Now

1. FAA allocations are inefficient—political pressures Steven A. Morrison, chair, Department of Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “Delayed! U.S. Aviation Infrastructure Policy at a Crossroads,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 26. As noted, the FAA hires air traffic controllers and other air traffic control personnel and supplies terminal and en route facilities with new equipment. Personnel and equipment tend to be added to those parts of the system where traffic levels exceed a threshold. The FAA’s allocation of funds is also influenced by airlines, airports, trade associations, and members of Congress, a process that may compromise the efficiency of FAA investments.

2. FAA reform is blocked by special interest groups Steven A. Morrison, chair, Department of Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “Delayed! U.S. Aviation Infrastructure Policy at a Crossroads,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 27-28. Although many travelers and some policymakers are painfully aware of the suboptimal service provided by U.S. aviation infrastructure facilities, regulations and political forces have made it extremely difficult for would-be reformers to rid the system of its major inefficiencies. At the heart of the problem is the FAA, which lacks organizational independence and is prevented to a significant extent by Congress and the administration from using its resources— and from encouraging airports to use theirs—more efficiently. Special interest politics has also thwarted efforts to reform aviation infrastructure policy. Joseph Stiglitz described his efforts, as part of the Clinton administration, to institute peak-period pricing for air traffic control only to find reform blocked by owners of corporate jets and small planes who opposed higher user fees.43 The FAA and commercial airlines appear to support replacing the expired ticket tax with user fees—although commercial airlines are opposed to congestion pricing. In any case, the current funding mechanism is supported by the potent National Business Aviation Association and the National Air Traffic Controllers Association; hence, a compromise that falls far short of marginal-cost pricing is likely to emerge.44 Both associations fear that any user fee is the first step to taking air traffic control out of the congressional funding process and privatizing it. Political pressure applied by air transport interests including members of Congress is the primary cause of misallocated FAA expenditures among traffic control facilities and is also behind the inertia preventing the elimination and consolidation of these facilities to implement the NextGen system.

3. FAA is failing in its modernization efforts—GAO reports prove Steven A. Morrison, chair, Department of Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “Delayed! U.S. Aviation Infrastructure Policy at a Crossroads,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 15. An ongoing challenge for the FAA has been to adopt and implement the latest technological advances to expand the airspace where planes can fly safely and to reduce controller error and aircraft encounters with dangerous weather that contribute to accidents. For example, during the early 1980s the FAA announced plans to develop an advanced automation system to provide flexible, computer-oriented air traffic control capable of handling greater traffic volumes at reduced manpower. The system also included significant improvements in detecting wind shear, the primary cause of several crashes, including two major ones in the 1980s. Although some progress has certainly been made in implementing that system, ongoing assessments by the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) indicate that delays and inefficiencies have characterized its development.9 Scheduled to be completed by 1991 for $12 billion, the fully upgraded system is more than a decade late, billions of dollars over budget, and still nowhere in sight. As of 2007, the cost of the modernization was expected to climb to $51 billion.

Paradigm Research 2012-13 Air Traffic Managemenet Affirmative

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Status Quo: Funding Inadequate Now

1. NextGen is underfunded, benefits are at risk

Ryan Holeywell and Daniel Lippman, “The 5 Biggest U.S. Infrastructure Projects, Plus 5 at Risk,” GOVERNING, 4—12, http://www.governing.com/topics/transportation-infrastructure/gov-5-biggest-us-infrastructure-projects-plus-5-at-risk.html, accessed 4-9-12. When airplanes are delayed, nobody wins. Airlines lose money. Passengers become inconvenienced. Airports get overwhelmed. That’s why the FAA is touting an effort that it says could reduce delays by 35 percent by 2018. The project, which aviation administrators began planning in 2003, is dubbed NextGen, and proponents say it would revolutionize air travel in this country by switching from radar-based to satellite-based flight-tracking technology. That, along with other technological advances like improved weather forecasting and communication systems, would allow planes to fly more direct routes instead of following the existing, inefficient flight paths that are arranged like highways in the sky. The result: More flights in the air at any given time, fewer delays and less wasted fuel. But the cost is enormous. FAA officials say they’ll need between $20 billion and $27 billion for the project through 2025. The Government Accountability Office says the cost could actually be as high as $160 billion. Meanwhile, there’s an ongoing debate about what proportion of the cost should be picked up by the airline industry, which has historically been skeptical of the benefits of government-mandated technologies. A recent report from the Department of Transportation’s inspector general said the system will likely face delays because the “FAA has not made critical, longer-term design decisions on NextGen ground and aircraft systems.” To complicate matters, the FAA has spent more than four years without a long-term funding bill, thanks to congressional inaction. That’s made it difficult to pursue larger projects like this one. A long-term bill signed earlier this year should help on that front, but the funding for the effort is still in question. The president’s 2013 budget calls for just over $1 billion for NextGen, which is a drop in the bucket. In a Congress focused on spending cuts, launching something like NextGen could be tough. “I’m guessing we’ll muddle along,” says David Plavin, an aviation consultant. “They won’t provide the big, incremental investment … that’s ultimately necessary.”

2. Current budget calls for cuts to NextGen implementation Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, “Next Generation Air Transportation System: FAA Has Made Some Progress in Implementation, but Delays Threaten to Impact Costs and Benefits,” Government Accountability Office, GAO-12-141T, 10—5—11, p. 5-6. Delays in program implementation, as described above, and budget constraints have also affected FAA’s capital budget planning. The Administration has proposed reducing FAA’s capital budget by a total of $2.8 billion, or 20 percent, for fiscal years 2012 through 2015 largely due to government-wide budget constraints. Most of this proposed reduction is on NextGen and NextGen-related spending, as reflected in FAA’s revised 5-year Capital Investment Plan for fiscal years 2012 through 2016. Congress has not completed FAA’s appropriation for fiscal year 2012, but current House and Senate appropriation bills propose to fund the agency near or above 2011 levels. FAA will have to balance its priorities to ensure that NextGen implementation stays on course while also sustaining the current infrastructure—which is needed to prevent failures and maintain the reliability and efficiency of current operations.

3. Upgrades to air traffic control may not happen—budget cuts

ECONOMIST, “Life in the Slow Lane,” 4—28—11, http://www.economist.com/node/18620944, accessed 5-20-12. America’s dependence on its cars is reinforced by a shortage of alternative forms of transport. Europe’s large economies and Japan routinely spend more than America on rail investments, in absolute not just relative terms, despite much smaller populations and land areas. America spends more building airports than Europe but its underdeveloped rail network shunts more short-haul traffic onto planes, leaving many of its airports perpetually overburdened. Plans to upgrade air-traffic-control technology to a modern satellite-guided system have faced repeated delays. The current plan is now threatened by proposed cuts to the budget of the Federal Aviation Administration.

Paradigm Research 2012-13 Air Traffic Managemenet Affirmative

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Status Quo: Funding Inadequate Now [cont’d]

4. Trust fund revenues won’t cover NextGen costs Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 15-16. The AATF has been the primary funding source for Next- Gen to date. It receives revenues from a variety of user fees and taxes paid by both commercial and general aviation operators as well as passengers (Table 9). According to a report by GAO,39 current sources of revenue in the Airport and Airway Trust Fund might be inadequate to cover anticipated future costs of NextGen without drawing from other revenue sources, and this is likely unfeasible given ongoing fiscal and political constraints. Total trust fund expenditures have gone up since 2000 from under $10 billion to about $14 billion in 2010 (Figure 3). However, trust fund revenues have not increased proportionately to keep up with rising expenditures. Several economic studies have shown that inflation-adjusted fares in the airline industry have been declining for several reasons such as expansion of low-cost carriers and two major demand-side shocks in the past decade.41 In fact, the Congressional Budget Office earlier this year adjusted its projection of the trust fund revenues to $25 billion less than its 2007 forecast for through 2017.

5. Getting general funding for NextGen will be hard—fiscal constraints Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 22. The present fiscal constraints are such that the general fund contributions are often not considered an option. But faced with funding an expensive modernization project with dim prospects of raising and taxes or fees might ultimately leave policy-makers with no other option. As the benefits of NextGen extend beyond aviation users and operators and affect the efficiency of regional economies, safety, and the environment, justification to use general fund contributions warrant consideration. The public benefits of congestion and fuel reduction are likely to be large. Delays in one airport could affect delays in other airports, implying that any delay reduction at a target airport might alleviate delays at a distant airport connected by the same airline. Additionally, reduced fuel consumption and carbon emissions could potentially yield external environmental benefits. These benefits often warrant the use of general funds to solve a public problem. However as stated before these merits are confronted by the political reality of constrained federal resources.

6. NextGen faces funding constraints now Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 24. Securing funding for infrastructure. The AATF has relied on increasing general fund contributions in recent years to meet increasing outlays. This has led to a rapidly depleting uncommitted funds level. In this fiscal climate, it is not reasonable to continue to expect general fund injections. Furthermore, there is no clear source of funds for NextGen in the upcoming years to ensure its continuity. There is a lack of an equitable long term funding mechanism for FAA’s portion of NextGen’s capital investment needs.

7. Funding shortages delay rollout—means billions in annual economic losses Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 15. This analysis stems from the premise that funding levels in the AATF are neither adequate to implement neither Next- Gen nor effective at accelerating modernization, which is crucial to making the most out of AATF funds. According to the FAA: By 2022, we estimate that this failure [to implement Next- Gen in a timely manner] would cost the U.S. economy $22 billion annually in lost economic activity. That number grows to over $40 billion by 2033 if we don’t act. Even as early as 2015 our simulation shows that without some of the initial elements of NextGen we will experience delays far greater than what we are seeing today.38 The results of the Deloitte study that showed significant additional costs by delaying implementation buttress the FAA’s estimates above.

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Status Quo: Funding Inadequate Now [cont’d]

8. Program is in trouble now—lack of stable funding

Jad Mouawad, “A Satellite System that Could End Circling Above the Airport,” NEW YORK TIMES, 4—3—12, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/04/business/a-satellite-system-that-could-end-circling-above-the-airport.html, accessed 4-9-12. The Seattle experiment is one of the first extensive applications of satellite technology after years of planning and political wrangling in Washington. Replacing the radar-based air traffic control system, which the nation’s airports have relied on since the 1940s, is an enormous and expensive undertaking. By one official government estimate, the price tag could reach $42 billion by 2025. But the agency in charge of the program, the Federal Aviation Administration, has been hamstrung by political infighting that deprived it of a stable budget for five years. Congress finally approved a four-year budget for the agency in February, including $1 billion a year for the program, called the Next Generation Air Transportation System, or NextGen. The program has already confronted trouble. A government audit found in February that half of the 30 critical contracts needed to build the new system were delayed, and more than a third were over budget.

9. Status quo funding is a failure, ensures system-wide problems Dr. Dorothy Robyn, principal, The Brattle Group and economic consultant, “Air Support: Creating a Safer and More Reliable Air Traffic Control System,” DISCUSSION PAPER, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 7—08, p. 20-21. In sum, the flawed and perverse incentives created by the current system of excise-tax funding contribute directly to the problems that plague the air traffic control system, including delays and the system’s lack of customer orientation. In my view, this is the most critical shortcoming of the current funding mechanism, yet virtually no one mentioned “economic incentives” in the recent prolonged debate over how best to finance the air traffic control system.14 Remarkably, despite the backdrop of record flight delays, the debate included no discussion of how the current funding system encourages overuse of the system. Economic efficiency or the lack thereof was the overlooked issue.

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Status Quo: NextGen Delayed Now

1. Industry won’t install necessary equipment now—don’t trust the FAAs commitment Captain Moak, President, Air Line Pilots Association International, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. At the Air Traffic Control Association's 55th Annual Conference, a paper with a provocative proposal to resolve what many have termed the "NextGen equipage paradox" was presented. The "NextGen equipage paradox" refers to the big problem of coordinating the FAA Air Traffic Organization's investments in ATC infrastructure with investments by aircraft operators (airlines, air taxis, fractional providers, business aircraft, etc.) needed to take advantage of the new infrastructure. Most of the benefits promised by NextGen will not be realized until a large fraction of the aircraft fleet is equipped. Yet, based on previous unsuccessful programs, airspace users lack confidence that the FAA will make its infrastructure investments in a timely manner, making them reluctant to lay out the cash to equip their planes. This concern is reflected in a 2010 DOT Inspector General report, "FAA Faces Significant Risks in Implementing the ADS-B Program and Realizing Benefits." (AV-2011-002, Oct. 12, 2010). The report points out that, "The greatest risks to successfully implementing ADS-B are airspace users' reluctance to purchase and install new avionics and FAA's ability to define requirements for the more advanced capabilities."

2. FAA needs to increase the efficiency of its infrastructure investments Steven A. Morrison, Professor, Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “The Effect of FAA Expenditures on Air Travel Delays,” JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS v. 63, 2008, p. 670. Unfortunately, the FAA has shown little interest in using the price mechanism to reduce delays and has done little to help airports make (efficient) investments in runway capacity; thus, its investments in air traffic control constitute its primary approach toward reducing delays. Surprisingly, little effort has been made to assess the efficacy of FAA’s expenditures. We do so here by developing an empirical model of delays that is motivated by air traffic control operations and by estimating the effect of FAA spending on travel delays. We find that current FAA spending has reduced the costs of delays to air travelers and operators. But we also find that FAA spending would provide greater benefits to travelers and operators if it were increased and optimally allocated toward airports that experience the greatest delays. The FAA could produce additional benefits by implementing new technologies that expand runway and airspace capacity in a more timely fashion. Given the expected growth in air travel, it is incumbent on the FAA to make efficient use of its preferred mechanism— public spending—to reduce delays. Its failure to do so will compound the inefficiencies that it has allowed to go unabated by not advancing efficient runway pricing and investment.

3. NextGen is running over budget, rollout is being delayed Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, “Air Traffic Control Modernization: Management Challenges Associated with Program Costs and Schedules Could Hinder NextGen Implementation,” Government Accountability Office, GAO-12-223, 2—12, p. i. In a review of 30 major ATC acquisition programs, all of which will contribute to the transition to NextGen, GAO found that costs for 11 of the 30 programs have increased from their initial estimates by a total of $4.2 billion and 15 programs experienced delays. The 11 acquisitions that experienced cost increases account for over 60 percent of FAA’s total acquisition costs ($11 billion of $17.7 billion) for the 30 programs. The 15 acquisitions that experienced schedule delays, of which 10 also had cost increases, ranged from 2 months to more than 14 years and averaged 48 months.

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Status Quo: NextGen Delayed Now [cont’d]

4. FAA is failing to implement NextGen—lacks capacity for complex procurement programs Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, “Air Traffic Control Modernization: Management Challenges Associated with Program Costs and Schedules Could Hinder NextGen Implementation,” Government Accountability Office, GAO-12-223, 2—12, p. 1. To accommodate anticipated increases in air passenger traffic over time,1 the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has expanded its acquisitions program to sustain current—or legacy—air traffic control (ATC) facilities and systems while simultaneously replacing or supplementing those systems through transition to the satellite-based Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This modernization effort involves acquiring and implementing new, advanced air traffic management systems, including hardware and software, to dramatically change the way the current aviation system is operated. As the agency transitions to NextGen, which has significantly increased the number, cost, and complexity of FAA’s acquisition programs, it is imperative that these programs remain on time and within budget, particularly given current budget constraints and the interdependencies of many NextGen-related ATC programs. FAA has taken several steps to improve its acquisition management––including implementing a cost estimating methodology, a cost accounting system, and a business process, and developing an enterprise architecture––which resulted in the removal of its acquisition management from the GAO High-Risk list in 2009.2 However, recent cost and scheduling problems among some major acquisition programs, such as the En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM), which is integral to ATC modernization, have renewed concerns about the agency’s ability to manage complex multibillion-dollar procurement programs.

5. Half of current NextGen programs are delayed Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, “Air Traffic Control Modernization: Management Challenges Associated with Program Costs and Schedules Could Hinder NextGen Implementation,” Government Accountability Office, GAO-12-223, 2—12, p. 15. We found that 15 of the 30 baselined programs either have experienced no change in schedule or were completed early or on time; however, the other 15 programs are projected to be completed later than originally estimated. These delayed programs range from the Integrated Display System, which will consolidate information from several weather subsystems into a single display, which FAA expects to be completed 2 months after its initial estimated completion date, to WAAS, which FAA estimates will be completed in 2013—more than 14 years after its initial estimated completion date (see table 4). Ten of the 15 programs with schedule delays also experienced cost increases. However, even if a schedule delay does not result in a direct cost increase to that program, the delay can lead to increased costs for FAA because FAA staff must continue to manage the acquisition over the longer term as it is being implemented, as well as maintain any legacy system that the program is replacing. Because of program interdependencies, a schedule delay can also affect how and when other programs will be implemented.

6. Half of the programs are subject to cost overruns Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, “Air Traffic Control Modernization: Management Challenges Associated with Program Costs and Schedules Could Hinder NextGen Implementation,” Government Accountability Office, GAO-12-223, 2—12, p. 17. Cost increases and schedule delays occurred because of several factors, all of which have been long-standing challenges for FAA and some of which continue to affect programs despite FAA efforts to mitigate the factors. Specifically, these factors include (1) additional, unanticipated system requirements work; (2) insufficient stakeholder involvement throughout system development; (3) underestimates of the complexity of software development; and (4) unanticipated events, including funding decreases or work stoppages (see table 5). Of the 30 programs we reviewed, 15 experienced cost increases, schedule delays, or both, and we were able to determine that cost increases or schedule delays for 11 were attributable to one or more of these factors.

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Status Quo: NextGen Delayed Now [cont’d] 7. Cost overruns and delays snowball—integrated nature of the systems

Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, “Air Traffic Control Modernization: Management Challenges Associated with Program Costs and Schedules Could Hinder NextGen Implementation,” Government Accountability Office, GAO-12-223, 2—12, p. 21. The interdependencies of ATC acquisition programs have become more prominent as the NextGen program shifts from planning to implementation, so that cost increases and schedule delays in one program could have a cascading effect on other programs. As discussed earlier, due to the integrated nature of NextGen, the development and delivery of many of its component programs are mutually dependent on the development and delivery of one or more other programs. For example, ERAM, FAA’s new en route computer system, is critical to the delivery of ADS-B capabilities such as broadcasting flight information. ERAM is also pivotal to the on-time implementation of two other key NextGen programs—Data Communications (DataComm), which is estimated to cost about $3 billion, and the NextGen information technology architecture, SWIM, which is estimated to cost over $550 million. Due in part to ERAM’s delay, FAA was forced to delay the Data Communications baseline date by approximately 6 months, re-baseline SWIM segment 1, and delay the SWIM segment 2 baseline date to 2012. The longer-term effects of these delays are unclear, but certain SWIM capabilities could be delayed for several years, and the progress of other programs that are dependent on SWIM’s system integration could be hindered, as well. Thus, looking more broadly, the implementation of NextGen—both midterm (now through 2018) and far-term (2019-2025) schedules—will be affected by how well FAA manages program interdependencies.

8. FAA too slow to implement tech advances—bureaucracy Steven A. Morrison, chair, Department of Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “Delayed! U.S. Aviation Infrastructure Policy at a Crossroads,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 28. Finally, the FAA, TSA, and local airport authorities are constrained by the inflexibility, shortsightedness, and conflicts that characterize most regulatory agencies and are entangled in a decisionmaking process with diffuse accountability. 45 Hence, technological advances that could improve airport and air traffic control services require an excessive amount of time and resources to be implemented, which reduces productivity in the air transportation sector.

9. Airports have no incentives to improve on their own—institutional and political constraints Steven A. Morrison, chair, Department of Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “Delayed! U.S. Aviation Infrastructure Policy at a Crossroads,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 9. In our view, excessive travel delays are—to a significant extent—a manifestation of the failure of publicly owned and managed airports and air traffic control to adopt policies and introduce innovations that could greatly improve the efficiency of the U.S. air transportation system. Given little economic incentive and saddled with institutional and political constraints, major airports and the air traffic control system have not exhibited any marked improvement in their performance for decades despite repeated assurances that they would do so, and they have provided little reason for policymakers and travelers to expect such improvements to ever occur.

10. NextGen fails now—lack of political commitment Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 2. A fifth problem facing NextGen is lack of Congressional political leadership in prioritizing a project of such potential value. In July 2011 the House of Representatives passed a short-term extension bill that failed to pass the senate, resulting in a shutdown that lasted a fortnight. The AATF received no tax revenues during the shutdown. As Congressional leaders argued over the Essential Air Services program, the trust fund lost over $400 million in foregone tax revenues. Those are funds that could have potentially been used towards an investment like NextGen. Furthermore, according to the FAA some of the NextGen program delays can be attributed to the furlough of some of the FAA employees in July 2011 and a freeze on contractor funding which resulted in work stoppage orders for several projects.3 This impact of the impasse on NextGen was also documented on the GAO report on the FAA’s NextGen cost-management.

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Harms: Economy—Aviation Key to Economy

1. Health of the aviation sector is vital to that of the entire economy Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. A weak U.S. airline industry results in fewer jobs and reduced economic activity, not just for airlines, but across the broad supply chain - including manufacturers (airframe, engine and avionics), hotels and tourism, computer technology and services, maintenance providers, catering and cleaning services, insurance and financial services - that relies on a healthy aviation industry. Consequently, as the industry shrinks, it is unable to help lead the country out of the current economic downturn. One important contributing factor to this situation is the absence of a clear and forward-looking national aviation policy that recognizes the economic and social importance of the airline industry. This is surprising, even shocking, given that U.S. commercial aviation ultimately drives more than $1 trillion in U.S. economic activity annually and more than 10 million U.S. jobs. A national aviation policy would make a financially healthy airline industry a priority, encourage growth and competition by eliminating airspace and airport capacity constraints, and avoid single-interest and regressive policies that interfere with safe and rational business decisions - in other words, do no harm.

2. Aviation important to economy--$150B in economic activity, over 1M jobs Peter Bunce, President and CEO, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. General aviation (GA) is an essential part of our transportation system that is especially critical for individuals and businesses that need to travel and move goods quickly and efficiently in today's just-in-time market. General aviation is also an important contributor to the U.S. economy, supporting over 1.2 million jobs, providing $150 billion in economic activity and, in 2009, generating nearly $5 billion in exports of domestically manufactured airplanes. We are one of the few remaining manufacturing industries that still provide a significant trade surplus for the United States. Our industry, like others, is struggling in today's difficult economic situation. Due to the economic downturn, our member companies have seen more than 20,000 layoffs over the last two years. Our deliveries have declined significantly - by 45% between 2008 and 2009 and almost 15% between the first three quarters of 2010 as compared to the first three quarters of 2009.

3. Aviation is key to the economy—cannot be accommodated by the current infrastructure Michael Huerta, Deputy Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. As recently as 2009, civil aviation contributed $1.3 trillion annually to the national economy, and constituted 5.2 percent of the gross domestic product according to FAA's recent report on the economic impact of civil aviation. It generated more than 10 million jobs, with earnings of $397 billion. NextGen is vital to protecting those contributions. The current system simply cannot accommodate anticipated growth in the aviation industry. Congestion continues to increase at many of our nation's busiest hub airports, a problem that will only be exacerbated now that traffic levels are starting to rebound from the impact of the economic recession. Between 2007 and 2011, approximately $2.8 billion has been appropriated for NextGen. We estimate the development of NextGen will require between $20 and $27 billion in FAA funding from 2012 to 2025. And just last month, the President requested $1 billion in the American Jobs Act for Next Gen to support applied research, advance development, and implementation of engineering solutions for NextGen technologies, applications and procedures.

4. Strong aviation sector key to growth Dr. Dorothy Robyn, principal, The Brattle Group and economic consultant, “Air Support: Creating a Safer and More Reliable Air Traffic Control System,” DISCUSSION PAPER, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 7—08, p. 5. Aviation is a major catalyst for economic growth. Between 1978, when the U.S. airline industry was deregulated, and 2005, demand for scheduled air passenger service grew by an average of 4.5 percent a year, which is half again as much as the comparable increase (2.9 percent) in the U.S. economy overall (Federal Aviation Administration [FAA] 2007b).1 In 2007, 769 million passengers boarded commercial airlines in the United States for business or leisure travel; that figure is expected to reach 1 billion by 2016 (FAA 2008b). The fast-growing air express sector, itself a product of deregulation, has been a boon to productivity, enabling services such as just-in-time delivery of industrial parts and e-commerce. Business aviation has also grown dramatically, and the use of private business jets, which now significantly outnumber commercial aircraft, is expected to double over the next decade with the introduction of very light jets and the growth of on-demand air taxi service (FAA 2008b). All told, civil aviation directly supports about $200 billion in economic activity and 1.1 million U.S. jobs (FAA 2007b).

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Harms: Economy—Aviation Key to Economy [cont’d]

5. Aviation industry is in serious trouble—government needs to boost the industry to save our economy Nicholas Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. As legislative and regulatory policies are formulated, the unprecedented adversity that the U.S. airline industry experienced in the last decade must be kept in mind. Among the events that the industry experienced were 9/11; airline bankruptcies and subsequent restructurings; volatile and rising fuel costs - jet-fuel prices today are 4.5 times higher than their 1991-2000 average; the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression; and worsening operational and air-travel experiences because of the increasingly obsolescent air traffic control system. The results were devastating. The airline industry suffered an estimated $54 billion cumulative loss between 2001 and 2010. That hardship forced a painful, far-reaching streamlining of the U.S. airline industry. More than 160,000 full-time-equivalent jobs in the airline industry were lost in that period. The U.S. airline industry's plight in the last decade is also evidenced by a precipitous drop in its share of GDP. From 1991 to 2000, domestic passenger revenue averaged 0.728 percent of GDP. In 2010, that proportion shrank to an estimated 0.497 percent. That decline translates into $34 billion in "lost" revenue. This is not where we should be; no one should be comfortable with this situation. The airline industry is indispensable to the health and competitiveness of our nation's economy. Governmental policies must foster an environment that spurs growth in our sector of the economy if the wellbeing of the broader economy is to be revitalized.

6. Boosting aviation is key to our economic recovery Nicholas Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. Commercial aviation is a linchpin of the U.S. economy. According to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), it drives approximately $1.2 trillion in annual economic activity in the United States and is responsible for 10.9 million U.S. jobs. This is roughly 5.2 percent of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Every $1 million of commercial aviation activity generates 24.6 jobs. The airline industry is an integral part of this picture. In 2009, the last full year for which data are available, airlines enplaned more than 700 million passengers and operated more than 10.4 million flights. Exports by air that year topped $334 billion in value. This activity is a powerful creator of jobs throughout the economy. Every 100 airline jobs help support some 388 jobs outside of the airline industry. The service that we provide is a bargain - and has been so literally for decades. Between 1978 and 2009, the consumer price index rose 229 percent while the price to fly a mile domestically rose only 42 percent. In contrast, during the same period, college tuition increased 788 percent, prescription drugs 535 percent and a single-family home 289 percent. Illustrating the consumer benefits to passengers in dollars and cents, Bureau of Transportation Statistics data indicate that a domestic round-trip ticket (airfare plus taxes) averaged $339.71 in the third quarter of 2010. If we compare that price to a hypothetical domestic ticket in the second quarter of 1995, it is $70.78 below the Consumer Price Index increase in that period ($410.49 versus $339.71). Consumer benefits are real and long-standing. The magnitude of these contributions to our nation's well-being means that the airline industry must be counted as an indispensable sector as Congress and the administration consider ways to revitalize the economy. The industry's job- and wealth-creating potential needs to be realized through policies that are carefully focused on that potential. With the adoption of such policies, the industry can become an even greater driver of the economy.

7. Aviation is vital to the economy—multiple measures Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation, THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CIVIL AVIATION ON THE U.S. ECONOMY, 8—11, p. 4. The civil air transport industry has a crucial role in fostering trade and making any place on the globe easily and quickly accessible. U.S. industry and consumers depend on the vital services of air transportation, which continue to maintain and vitalize the U.S. economy. • In 2009, air carriers operating in U.S. airspace transported 793 million passengers over 1,039.3 billion revenue passenger miles (RPM). • More than 53 billion revenue ton-miles (RTM) of scheduled freight passed through U.S. airports in 2009.1 • The U.S. civil aviation manufacturing industry continues to be the top U.S. net exporter. According to 2009 data from the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), the U.S. civil aviation manufacturing industry supported a positive trade balance of over $75 billion. • New research using data from 2008 shows that air transportation enables economic activity in other sectors of the economy through: -- Air-traveler spending of $249.2 billion on goods and services -- Freight valued at $562.1 billion transported domestically or to other countries • The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) spent more than $14 billion on air traffic operations, facilities and equipment, and grants in 2008 to support the National Airspace System (NAS). These expenditures supported additional spending in the economy totaling $26.2 billion and nearly 218,000 jobs with earnings of $8.3 billion.

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Harms: Economy—Aviation Key to Economy [cont’d]

8. Strong aviation sector is vital to economic growth Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation, THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CIVIL AVIATION ON THE U.S. ECONOMY, 8—11, p. 5. From live traffic reports sent from helicopters to just-in- time delivery of life saving organs for transplant, civil aviation has become an integral part of the U.S. lifestyle and commerce. In challenging economic times, the services that air transportation provides are essential among the building blocks for recovery and economic growth. The financial crisis and ensuing recent recession affected the whole world. Global real GDP growth slowed from 3.9 percent to 1.6 percent between 2007 and 2008, while real GDP growth in the U.S. dropped from 1.9 to zero percent during the same period. Although June 2009 marked the end of the recent recession in the United States, real GDP growth fell by 2.6 percent by the end of 2009 and unemployment rates reached double digits. However, despite the dramatic slowdown of the economy and impact on the aviation industry, the U.S. economy produced $14.1 trillion in value-added economic activity and sustained 140 million jobs.6 At the same time, civil aviation economic activity: • Supported 10.2 million jobs • Contributed $1.3 trillion in total economic activity • Accounted for 5.2 percent of total U.S. GDP

9.1Robust aerospace industry is key to our economy

Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), “Aerospace and Defense: Second to None,” 2011, www.nationalaerospaceweek.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/whitepaper.pdf, accessed 4-23-12. As the U.S. economy continues to move through uncertain times and the nation grapples with a growing debt, America’s aerospace industry remains a powerful, reliable engine of employment, innovation and export income. Aerospace contributed $77.5 billion in export sales to America’s economy last year. Conservatively, U.S. aerospace sales alone account for three to five percent of our country’s gross domestic product, and every aerospace dollar yields an extra $1.50 to $3 in further economic activity. Aerospace products and services are the bedrock of our nation’s security and competitiveness. We strongly believe that keeping this economic workhorse on track is in America’s best interest. To accomplish this, government policies must support robust funding of defense priorities, research and development, a 21st century air traffic control system, a level playing field abroad and a robust industrial base. Additionally policies that promote science, technology engineering and mathematics (STEM) will help reenergize an aging aerospace workforce with an infusion of younger employees.

10. Civil aviation is essential to the economy—multiple reasons DRI-WEFA, THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CIVIL AVIATION, 7—02, p. 26. Civil aviation has become an essential part of the U.S. economy. The analysis contained in this study, based on constant year 2000 dollars, indicates that: *The total national economic impact of civil aviation exceeded more than $900 billion and 11 million jobs to the U.S. economy in the year 2000, roughly 9% of the total U.S. GDP; * Of this, one dollar in nine is contributed by general aviation; * Aggressive investment in air transportation infrastructure would reduce projected 2012 passenger delays by 64 million hours or 25 percent. Critically, every dollar of investment would generate as much as $5 in economic benefits to the U.S. economy; · For the period 2000 to 2012, timely, robust investment in airports and airways could mean an additional $30.7 billion for the U.S. economy—benefits that would accrue at a higher annual rate as volumes grow beyond 2012; · As a result, business operations would become more efficient, costs would be reduced, and U.S. international competitiveness would increase, particularly in aviation, including air cargo, and tourism, increasing economic development; · Further, with quicker, more robust investment in infrastructure, business and personal travel would rise, and the agony of delays and cancelled flights would be greatly mitigated; and · The increased connectedness of friends and family and more efficient use of the environment would lead to a greater quality of life for all of American society. Substantial agreement exists among the public, aircraft operators, and politicians that civil aviation delays in the base year 2000 were unacceptable. The magnitude of the damage caused by delays is not limited to mere passenger inconvenience; it also imposes considerable direct costs to civil aviation, travel and tourism, and economic development, and hence to the entire U.S. economy. FAA’s Operational Evolution Plan cannot keep pace with the forecast growth in scheduled airline passengers.24 Therefore, it is an insufficient response to the delay problem because it merely reduces the increase in delay experienced by passengers through 2012 without attacking the base delay itself. The earlier the airport and ATC investment program addresses congestion at large, critical choke points, the more successful it will be in attacking overall system congestion. But even in the most aggressive scenario investigated in this study, annual passenger delay hours in 2012 increase 39% from unacceptable 2000 levels. More aggressive investment in civil aviation infrastructure is not only justified by benefit/cost analysis—it is also essential to the economic well being of the U.S. economy and its citizens.

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Harms: Economy—Aviation Profitability

1. Airline industry is on the brink—faces serious problems Daniel Bourgeois, M.S., Science, Technology and Public Policy, “The Next Generation Air Transportation System: An Answer to Solve Airport Efficiency?” M.S. Thesis Submitted to the Public Policy Program, Rochester Institute of Technology, 8—10, p. 70. The fragile state of the market in the U.S. airline industry is illustrated by an estimated loss of $8 billion in 2008 and that is on top of the $31 billion lost since 2000. Airlines reduced operations sharply and were forced to slash 28,000 jobs in 2008; additional reductions are already in place for 2010 and softening demand will require even further reductions as carriers continue to cut back operations (May, 2009). Should jet fuel or any other airline fixed price move sharply upward, the industry could easily see 2010 losses approaching the magnitude of losses in 2008. How would the private sector combat these problems? If we look to the news we can see how the airlines have tried to cope with their increased expenditures. Because of internet sites like Travelocity and Expedia the asymmetric flow of information on ticket prices has disappeared. It has become very transparent how much a plane ticket costs, on what day, and by what carrier. After the deregulation of the airlines by the government the only way that airline industries are able to keep passengers and turn a profit is to keep ticket prices competitive. That is to keep them as low as everyone else. Recently, it was reported that American Airlines is now charging eight dollars for a pillow and blanket (Hunter, 2010).

2. NextGen will improve the profitability of the entire aviation sector Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. Improved Financial Performance. Modernization will respond to legitimate shareholder expectations that the airlines they invest in will earn a positive return on investment. The current ATC system hobbles the industry’s ability to achieve financial stability because of the costs it drives by being inefficient. These failures lead to delays and congestion. The Joint Economic Committee found that the total cost to the economy of domestic delays in 2007 was nearly $41 billion, including $19 billion for airlines and $12 billion for passengers. Delayed aircraft also drive the need for extra gates and ground personnel and impose costs on airline customers (including shippers) in the form of lost productivity, wages and goodwill. The industry cannot survive, and the public will not invest in it, if these conditions remain the status quo.

3. Industry strongly benefits—fuel cost savings Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 5-6. The FAA maintains that NextGen will benefit operators by increasing fuel efficiency and reducing congestion, potentially saving the industry billions of dollars in the process. First the direct fuel savings are calculated, followed by the congestion savings to operators. The current aviation system uses radar to scan through an area periodically and reports any nearby operating aircraft to ATC. The lack of continuous precise detection means that aircrafts must maintain a minimum separation distance of at least five miles in the en route airspace and three miles in the terminal airspace for safety. Moreover, airplanes are required to fly through predetermined air corridors similar to imaginary highways in the air, limiting en route flexibility, though this is a procedural requirement by the FAA and not necessarily due to the limits of existing technology. The precision of GPS would allow reduction in the aircraft separation standard, which would greatly enhance air traffic management and flow. NextGen’s Area Navigation (RNAV) would allow pilots to choose more direct and shorter routes, to their destination, assuming FAA develops appropriate procedures to allow direct navigation. This could result in substantial fuel savings. Another procedure through which NextGen would save fuel is during aircraft landing. Under the current system, an aircraft follows a fuel-intensive stepped descending approach where it descends to a lower altitude, levels off to a constant altitude, and then descends further by periodically altering engine power. Optimal Profile Descent (OPD) would allow the aircraft to glide continuously prior to landing instead of using additional engine power.9 By reducing fuel consumption, NextGen could provide relief to the airline industry’s fuel costs, one of the largest components of total operating cost. Airline profitability in recent years has been stifled in part due to substantial increases in fuel prices: from under $1/gallon between 2000-2004 to over $2.20/gallon in 2010, including record prices of about $3/gallon in 2008 (Figure 8, Appendix A). Prior to jet fuel price hikes starting in 2004, fuel expenses accounted for about a quarter of total operating expenses. Since 2004, about half of total operating expenses are from fuel costs (Figure 1).

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Harms: Economy—Aviation Profitability [cont’d]

4. NextGen saves fuel—decrease in congestion Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 6. The burden of increased fuel expenses is further exacerbated by airport congestion and existing inefficiencies in an aviation system that uses outdated technologies and protocols. Congestion is a problem, particularly at certain busy airports where the congestion is caused by capacity constraints, and will likely get worse as the economy recovers from the recession and travel demand rises.10 In 2010 major airlines reported that about 40 percent of arrivals and departures are delayed.11 Every additional minute spent by operators sitting on the tarmac or circling an airport awaiting clearance means additional fuel, equipment depreciation and maintenance, increased labor costs, employee fatigue, and a possible loss of customers. According to the latest FAA estimate, NextGen could save about 1.4 billion gallons of fuel through 2018.12 This estimate assumes continued benefits of some of the NextGen capabilities already in place at some airports and timely implementation of the FAA’s mid-term goals. This amounts to, on average, about 200 million gallons annually assuming full implementation of NextGen. Using the current jet fuel price of about $2.86/gallon in 2011, total fuel savings to operators would be about $600 million annually.

5. NextGen lowers industry costs—less congestion Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 7. Congestion in aviation is a serious problem with direct quantifiable costs to airlines and other operators.16 According to the FAA’s Cost-Benefit Analysis Guidance, the value of reduced time of aircraft delay can be measured by the aircraft’s variable operating costs including crew costs, maintenance, and fuel and oil costs. Fuel costs, which are analyzed separately above, are a part of the congestion savings included in this analysis. Figure 2 shows the percentage of flights reported by carriers that arrived or departed late.18 Post 9/11 dips in delays up to 2003 are indicative of decreased demand for flying, as indicated in green, and hence less congestion. Since then the percentage of flights delayed increased progressively as the impact of 9/11 on the airline industry slowly diminished. Towards the end of 2007 about 24 percent of reported flights arrived at least 15 minutes late, while 21 percent departed late. Delay numbers decreased in 2008 significantly following the recession, although they have climbed back up again as the economy began to recover. Today, about 20 percent of flights arrive or depart delayed. NextGen’s delay cost savings to commercial airlines is estimated as follows: First, using the Department of Transportation’s airline delay data, the cost of current congestion to all airlines is calculated. Next the value of reduced congestion is quantified for various levels of delay reduction. The value of the FAA’s estimate of 20-35 percent delay reduction is calculated and compared to the savings from much lower levels of delay reduction. Major airlines are required to submit delay data to BTS.19 The total delay for each reporting airline is calculated, amounting to 1.22 million hours of plane delays in 2010 overall. For every airline, the total cost of delays is calculated using an airline-specific hourly operating cost.20 Using this data, the total cost of delays to major reporting airlines in 2010 was about $3.58 billion. Using very modest estimates of NextGen’s delay reductions, the delay savings are about $35.8 million annually for a one percent delay reduction and $179 million for a five percent delay reduction. These figures are much lower than the benefits using the FAA’s 20-35 percent delay reduction estimates of 715.9 million-$1.25 billion, but still represent substantial annual savings.

6. NextGen improves the industry—massive enhanced efficiency Nicholas Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. NextGen will respond to several critical needs: * Efficiency and Productivity. NextGen will enable more efficient flying. The current system is inefficient in producing capacity. Today's ground radar system requires planes to fly over specific points on the ground to maintain radar and communications contact. Navigational aids, radar and controllers are all terrestrial. They are linked to form a complex network system that supports airways, through which aircraft fly. Today's system also requires significant spacing to accommodate the time it takes for radar to detect objects. These characteristics are a recipe for inefficiency. Equally significant, today's ATC system cannot take full advantage of available technology or integrate and fully exploit emerging technology. In contrast to today's ATC system, NextGen will enable optimized, direct routings between airports; reduced aircraft spacing; continuous descent arrivals; precise arrival and departure routings (known as RNAV and RNP procedures); and closely spaced approaches on parallel runways in instrument flight conditions. These enhancements will significantly increase productivity, both in utilization of assets and personnel. That, in turn, will reduce operating costs, which will enable those savings to be plowed back into wages and benefits, as well as operating capital. In addition, airline customers should benefit from reduced and more reliable traveling and shipping times.

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Harms: Economy—Aviation Profitability [cont’d]

7. NextGen boosts the industry—improved capacity Nicholas Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. Capacity. The current ATC system is saturated in some areas and, therefore, in some locations, cannot provide the capacity to meet the public's demand for convenient, safe air transportation. This inhibits competition and industry growth today; this situation will worsen if not corrected. It also is the source of unnecessary congestion and delays that can quickly cascade through the system. NextGen will enable more precise spacing of aircraft and flight paths, which will allow the FAA to handle safely and efficiently the traffic growth that it forecasts.

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Harms: Economy—Business Aviation Key to Economy

1. Business aviation is vital to the economy, transportation system Edward Bolen, President and CEO, National Business Aviation Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. Business aviation is an FAA-defined term. According to the FAA, business aviation is the use of any general aviation aircraft - piston or turbine - for a business purpose. From creating growth opportunities and global connectivity for America's small towns and rural areas to supporting the nation's productivity, business aviation is an important economic engine, creating jobs and investment, while contributing to the world's leading aviation system. Simply put, business aviation is a vital part of the nation's economy and transportation system.

2. Business aviation is key to the economic vitality of small towns and rural areas Edward Bolen, President and CEO, National Business Aviation Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. In small towns and rural areas across America, business aviation is an essential tool that enables businesses to thrive, grow and create jobs in their hometowns. That's because in many instances, there are no other transportation options that meet their needs. Many small and mid-size businesses are located in areas without scheduled airline service. Businesses of all sizes require in-person travel for such operations as sales, technical support and other types of customer service. Such trips may call for multiple stops in a short period of time or travel to remote locations. Often, the distances are too long to drive or airline service is not available. A 2009 survey of business aviation pilots and passengers, conducted for NBAA and GAMA by Harris Interactive, concludes that managers and other mid-level employees are the typical passengers on business aircraft - not senior executives.

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Harms: Economy—Competitiveness Internal Links

1. Aviation is vital to the economy—need to act to address congestion to preserve our competitiveness DRI-WEFA, THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CIVIL AVIATION, 7—02, p. 3. Civil aviation has become an integral part of the U.S. economy. It is a key catalyst for economic growth and has a profound influence on the quality of life of populations around the globe. It integrates the world economy and promotes the international exchange of people, products, investment, and ideas. Indeed, to a very large extent, civil aviation has enabled small community and rural populations to enter the mainstream of global commerce by linking such communities with worldwide population, manufacturing, and cultural centers. Civil aviation products and services generate a significant surplus for the U.S. trade accounts and are in the forefront in the development and use of advanced technologies. Fundamentally, civil aviation touches nearly every aspect of our lives, and its success will, to a great degree, shape American society and the U.S. economy in the coming decades. The ability of civil aviation to foster economic growth and engender social mobility is not, however, guaranteed. By 2000, the economic and personal cost of delays caused by constrained airport and airway capacity and reduced aviation system efficiency reached unacceptable levels. The recent economic downturn and the decline in air transportation following the tragic events of September 11, 2001, provided only temporary relief from the growing problem of congestion and delay—it by no means eliminated the problem. Without swift and thorough intervention, the costs of delay will continue to rise, further harming the U.S. economy, the competitiveness of its industries, and all who rely on aviation in the conduct of their business and personal affairs. Conversely, additional investment in the nation’s aviation infrastructure will facilitate economic growth.

2. Strengthening the system is key to our economic survival, competitiveness

National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), EXPEDITING AIR TRAFFIC MODERNIZATION AND ACCELERATING NEXTGEN, 2009, http://www.nam.org/~/media/9D17E31A28104FE69FBBE244FEEB59E9/NextGen_to_NowGen.pdf, accessed 12-12-11. The Nation’s Air Transportation System is National Infrastructure: Although we are experiencing an unprecedented economic downturn of global proportions, the rest of the world and our major competitors are heavily investing in infrastructure. Targeting investments that modernize the strongest and most essential parts of our nation’s infrastructure must be encouraged not only for our economic survival and competitiveness, but as a point of national pride. As Congress and the Administration consider the development of a National Infrastructure Bank in the coming months, the NAM believes NextGen could benefit from this innovative approach to infrastructure financing.

3. NextGen will provide a strong boost to the U.S. economy—risk losing our competitiveness otherwise TK Kallenbach, Vice President, Honeywell, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 3—25—09, lexis. NextGen is a Strong Engine for the U.S. Economy Aviation's impact on the U.S. economy cannot be understated. The FAA estimates that civil aviation contributes 11 million jobs and $1.2 trillion in economic activity, amounting to 5.6% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) n1. On the other hand, the Congressional Joint Economic Committee calculates that the cost of air traffic delays to the U.S. economy in 2007 was $41 billion n2. To put this in perspective, rough estimates of the total cost of implementing the NextGen system have been on the order of $50 billion - a little more than one year's cost of the delays NextGen can and should eliminate. Aviation is also a strong contributor to the U.S. balance of trade. In 2007, aerospace contributed $61 billion in net exports n3, the top industry performer. This strong economic driver is a result of America's historical leadership in aviation - leadership that has existed since the advent of flight. NextGen provides us with an opportunity to maintain that leadership by developing, demonstrating, and implementing the technologies, standards, and procedures that will transform the world's air traffic systems. Alternatively, if we choose to not act aggressively, we stand to be eclipsed as other regions, including Europe, Australia, and China, move to deploy new systems to meet their growing air transportation needs. We are positioned to be a global leader in air traffic management modernization, but if we do not act, we will relinquish that position.

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Harms: Economy—Competitiveness Internal Links [cont’d]

4. Strong airports are key to competitiveness Robert Cervero, Professor, City and Regional Planning, University of California-Berkeley, “Transport Infrastructure and Global Competitiveness: Balancing Mobility and Livability,” ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE v. 626, November 2009, p. 210-211. Transport infrastructure is critical to the competitiveness of cities and regions in the global marketplace. Airports, some contend, are gateways to today's global economy, not unlike seaports a century or more ago. Kasarda (2001) argued that with the ascendancy of just-in-time inventorying, airports are critical links in the global supply chain of economic production. The agglomerations of light industries, freight forwarders, air cargo carriers, consulting firms, and convention hotels that encircle major airports form what Kasarda called "aerotropolises." Similarly vital to economic production are inter-metropolitan networks such as the Chicago Land Bridge, being built to transport heavy containers from abroad through metropolitan Chicago to break-of-bulk distribution centers in the Midwest region of the United States.

5. Strong air travel important to competitiveness—allows us to maximize comparative advantages Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, and Gines de Rus “Introduction,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 1. The increasing interdependence of firms and individuals throughout the world—popularly defined as globalization—has been greatly facilitated by air transportation. In 2005 the world’s airlines carried roughly 2 billion passengers, more than one-third of whom were traveling for business or pleasure to another country. For the next several years, the world’s air traffic is expected to grow about 6 percent annually.1 Globalization can enable a nation to develop and benefit from its comparative advantage in commodities and services including tourism, but a nation must have adequate infrastructure to realize its comparative advantage. For example, a country must have a network of airports that are capable of handling operations by large jets safely and efficiently as well as an air traffic control system that uses the latest technology to optimize routings and prevent accidents.

6. Aviation sector is vital to innovation Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation, THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CIVIL AVIATION ON THE U.S. ECONOMY, 8—11, p. 42. In a world of decreasing barriers to trade, the U.S. civil aviation industry remains a unique engine for innovation and technological progress, one that provides infrastructure that keeps the nation competitive. This report found that, once all impacts are identified, civil aviation accounted for 5.2 percent of the U.S. economy in 2009. Aviation contributes to economic growth and to stronger ties to local and global markets for every region in the nation.

7. NextGen vital to competitiveness—will lose jobs otherwise

Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), “Aerospace and Defense: Second to None,” 2011, www.nationalaerospaceweek.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/whitepaper.pdf, accessed 4-23-12. The entire U.S. fleet of civil aircraft can be NextGen equipped in less than three years for less funding than has been committed to surface transportation infrastructure projects. Experts say with an equipped fleet and a commitment to accelerate supporting ground infrastructure, NextGen could be in place in five to eight years instead of 10 to 15. Full NextGen deployment requires the production and installation of hundreds of thousands of high-tech avionic products assembled by skilled workers in U.S. factories and maintenance stations in every state. Without these products, our National Airspace System cannot upgrade to satellite-based navigation and will lag behind systems in other countries. Building and deploying NextGen equipment, procedures and infrastructure could create approximately 153,600 jobs.10 A viable aviation sector enhances economic activity in a wide number of industries outside aviation, including travel, tourism and industries that rely on just-in-time global inventories and shipping capability. Implications on the trade front are also important. Our strong competitive position in aerospace is being challenged by the European Union, Australia, Canada and other countries. China and India, which will witness the greatest growth in aviation travel for years to come, will look to either the United States or Europe for leadership as they develop their respective air traffic control systems. If the United States does not promptly deploy these technologies, opportunities for U.S. manufacturers and workers could be lost.

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Harms: Economy—Competitiveness Internal Links [cont’d]

8. Improved air traffic control system will boost investment in the U.S. NEXA Advisors, NEXTGEN EQUIPAGE FUND: JOB CREATION, ECONOMIC BENEFITS, AND CONTRIBUTION TO FEDERAL REVENUES, 4—11, p. 12. Access to the air transportation system is often cited as critical to investment decisions. The improved efficiency of the system will lead to better quality of air transportation and thus is likely to influence investment in the United States. If better quality air transportation encourages greater net investment, it will raise a region’s capital stock and the potential level of GDP it can generate. Inward investment has the added benefit of introducing new technologies or management techniques that can further increase GDP by raising underlying productivity. Air transportation also enables a region to attract high quality employees, which also raises underlying productivity.

9. NextGen is key to our competitiveness

Ashley Halsey, “Antidote to Air Gridlock May Not Get off Ground,” SEATTLE TIMES, 7—4—11, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boeingaerospace/2015510103_airtraffic05.html, accessed 4-23-12. Advocates say the United States will lose its competitive edge in the global transportation economy unless the government pumps $11.5 billion into the program in the next seven years and airlines pony up an additional $7 billion to $10 billion. The cost of delaying the system even by less than five years has been calculated at $20 billion. NextGen has virtually no credible enemies — not in the administration, not on Capitol Hill and not in the airline industry. But the seemingly simple concept is layered like an onion with complexities. In addition to demanding an enormous investment, there is a confluence of history and technology that creates a hurdle to progress.

10. NextGen bolsters competitiveness—multiple mechanisms

NEXA Advisors, NEXTGEN EQUIPAGE FUND: JOB CREATION, ECONOMIC BENEFITS, AND CONTRIBUTION TO FEDERAL REVENUES, 4—11, p. 13. Improved air transportation results in more efficient business operations, reduced costs, and increased U.S. international competitiveness. NextGen will improve U.S. competitiveness by lowering the travel time and therefore the costs for both passengers and cargo. Just‐in‐time inventory management facilitated by efficient air cargo operations plays an important role in the U.S. maintaining global competitiveness. The aerospace industry provides a significant positive contribution to the U.S. balance of trade.xix The U.S. competitive position can be reinforced by taking leadership in aircraft equipage for NextGen technologies. This leadership applies to both the U.S. air transport sector, and the aerospace manufacturing sector, OEM and component alike.

11. Systemic constraints threaten our competitiveness DRI-WEFA, THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CIVIL AVIATION, 7—02, p. 23-24. Not only is air transportation important to the global economy; it is also an important enabler of economic growth for individual economies. By developing its air transportation system, a country can better link itself to the global economy and provide an environment for its business that facilitates global activity. Conversely, there are distinct disadvantages for regions or communities that are beyond the reaches of efficient air transportation. In these regions, business remains more isolated and less able to reap the benefits offered by being connected to global economic activity. Both adequate airport capacity and the efficiency with which the air transportation system works are critical to generating economic benefits. The main body of this report examines the impacts that a constrained system in the United States would have on the U.S. economy later in the decade. But it is also true that these constraints would inhibit the ability of the United States to compete in global markets, damaging its international competitiveness in general and the international competitiveness of U.S. civil aviation specifically. This chapter examines some of the elements of such potential damage.

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Harms: Economy—Congestion/Delays Impacts

1. Delays and congestion hurt the economy—Euro shutdown in 2010 proves Deloitte, TRANSPFORMING THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A BUSINESS CASE FOR PROGRAM ACCELERATION, 7—11, p. 8. According to a recently released FAA-sponsored study by NEXTOR, it was estimated that the total cost of all U.S. air transportation delays in 2007 was $32.9 billion. This consisted of $8.3 billion of increased airline operator expenses for crew, fuel, and maintenance, among other direct costs. It also consisted of another $16.7 billion in passenger time lost due to schedule buffers, delayed flights, flight cancellations and missed connections. It also consisted of another $3.9 billion in welfare loss incurred by passengers who avoid air travel as the result of delays. Finally the study found that air transportation delays reduced the 2007 U.S. GDP by $4 billion9. The global dependence on air travel was highlighted in the recent European shutdown of flight operations for several days due to the eruption of an Icelandic volcano in April 2010. According to a recent IATA report, over 100,000 flights were cancelled during the six days of air space closure, and many European economies, let alone affected airlines, were financially affected. Hundreds of thousands of passengers and their related businesses were financially affected as well10. Although global ATS transformation initiatives may not have completely mitigated that situation, it does illustrate our dependence on air travel and the significant economic impact ATS disruptions can cause.

2. Delays are a serious problem, will only get worse

Steven A. Morrison, chair, Department of Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “Delayed! U.S. Aviation Infrastructure Policy at a Crossroads,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 33. As shown in figure 2-1, during the past thirty years airline travel times have been characterized by cycles of sharp increases followed by modest decreases. Growth in travel times and delays have spurred promises from the FAA to address the problem; however, declines caused by recessions in the early 1980s and 1990s and by the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks have changed the FAA’s focus. On net, delays continue to mount, the flying public accepts the inconvenience without calling for a change in policy, and the performance of the nation’s aviation infrastructure worsens. At some point, however, the level of delays—not the increase—may generate a public outcry that cannot be silenced by an external shock.

3. Current air traffic control system is inadequate—flight delays prove Dr. Dorothy Robyn, principal, The Brattle Group and economic consultant, “Air Support: Creating a Safer and More Reliable Air Traffic Control System,” DISCUSSION PAPER, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 7—08, p. 9. Flight delays are the most visible symptom of the strain under which our air traffic control system is operating. During 2007, 24 percent of domestic flights were delayed, as defined by DOT (i.e., they arrived at least fifteen minutes beyond their scheduled arrival time) (U.S. DOT 2008a). The average delay for those flights was fifty-five minutes (FAA 2008e). In 2007, passengers lost more than 112 million hours due to delays, up from 100 million in 2006 (see Figure 1).

4. Delays are worse than reported—airlines are hiding delays in their schedules Dr. Dorothy Robyn, principal, The Brattle Group and economic consultant, “Air Support: Creating a Safer and More Reliable Air Traffic Control System,” DISCUSSION PAPER, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 7—08, p. 10-11. Second, airlines have padded their published schedules to permit flights to arrive “on time” despite routine delays. Figure 2, compiled by Steven Morrison and Clifford Winston (2008) using data on all domestic flight segments from 1977 to 2006, shows that flight travel times have increased steadily due to both air and ground delays. The airlines’ scheduled flight times on individual routes are also revealing. For example, according to Scott McCartney, the Wall Street Journal’s aviation columnist, it now takes twenty-five minutes longer to fly from New York to Los Angeles than it did ten years ago. Flights from New York to Washington, DC, which involve only about thirty-five minutes in the air, are now routinely scheduled for well over an hour (“The Middle Seat: Why Flights Are Getting Longer,” May 29, 2007).

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Harms: Economy—Congestion/Delays Impacts [cont’d]

5. Flight delays impose enormous costs—lost time, increase of direct operating costs to airlines Dr. Dorothy Robyn, principal, The Brattle Group and economic consultant, “Air Support: Creating a Safer and More Reliable Air Traffic Control System,” DISCUSSION PAPER, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 7—08, p. 10. Flight delays are expensive. The Air Transport Association (ATA) estimates that the delays measured by DOT cost airlines about $8.1 billion in direct operating costs in 2007, largely in additional fuel consumption and increased expense for labor and aircraft maintenance (ATA 2008). Passengers pay the delay costs incurred by airlines indirectly in the form of higher fares. Passengers also pay for delays directly through the loss of their valuable time. Taking the passenger delay data from Figure 1 and using a low and high estimate of the value of passengers’ time ($30 and $50 an hour), I estimate that last year’s delays cost passengers $3.4 billion to $5.6 billion in lost time for a total direct cost to airlines and passengers of $11.5 billion to $13.7 billion. Moreover, for several reasons these figures significantly understate the real cost of flight delays and congestion. First, DOT statistics on delays exclude flight cancellations and missed connections. Although relatively few flights are cancelled, a cancellation is far more disruptive to a traveler than a delayed flight. Research conducted at MIT and George Mason University suggests that cancellations account for 40–45 percent of actual passenger delays (see, for example, Calderón-Meza, Sherry, and Donohue 2008). Taking into account the impact of flight cancellations, passenger delays were up an estimated 29 percent in 2007 over 2006; they cost U.S. travelers $8.5 billion in lost time (Sherry and Donohue 2007).

6. Delays harm the environment—burn additional jet fuel, increasing CO2 emissions Dr. Dorothy Robyn, principal, The Brattle Group and economic consultant, “Air Support: Creating a Safer and More Reliable Air Traffic Control System,” DISCUSSION PAPER, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 7—08, p. 11. Third, even the most expansive measure of the costs of congestion to passengers and airlines ignores the considerable harm to the environment. Most significant, aircraft burn additional fuel when flight delays force them to wait on the ground to take off or circle above an airport waiting to land, and that generates carbon dioxide. Based on the ATA’s (2008) estimate of the amount of fuel burned in 2007 as a result of flight delays (1.8 billion gallons), I calculate that delays caused the release of 18.7 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.2 This is equivalent to the annual carbon emissions of about 2.5 million automobiles.

7. Congestion is getting worse—expanded use of regional jets Dr. Dorothy Robyn, principal, The Brattle Group and economic consultant, “Air Support: Creating a Safer and More Reliable Air Traffic Control System,” DISCUSSION PAPER, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 7—08, p. 12. A proximate cause of the increase in air traffic congestion and delays is the dramatic decline in average aircraft size. From 1990 to 2007, the average number of seats per domestic departure dropped from 129 to 93 (see Figure 3). As airlines have gone to smaller aircraft, the number of flights they operate has grown faster than the number of passengers they carry. This trend largely reflects the expanded use of regional jets (RJs), which flew about 34 percent of all commercial flights in 2007 (Innovata 2008). RJs are popular because they allow airlines to use lower-cost pilots and offer the more frequent service that attracts high-revenue business passengers (“frequency sells”). The growth of RJs has been especially pronounced at some of the largest and most delay-plagued airports (see Figure 4). For example, from August 2002 to August 2007 New York’s LaGuardia airport experienced a 49 percent jump in scheduled flights of aircraft with fewer than a hundred seats and an 8 percent decline in flights using aircraft with more than one hundred seats (Hughes 2007).

8. Addressing congestion problems will boost economic growth DRI-WEFA, THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CIVIL AVIATION, 7—02, p. 4. A long-term, sustained effort beyond the OEP is needed to eliminate congestion and delay. Even in the most aggressive scenario investigated in this study, annual passenger delay hours rise to unacceptable levels, largely a function of projected growth in demand. If these delays were greatly mitigated, personal and economic cost savings would stimulate U.S. economic growth and employment; businesses would realize greater efficiencies and thus compete more effectively in the global arena; the U.S. trade surplus from aviation manufacturing activity and air transport services would increase; the quality of life for U.S. citizens would improve; and environmental benefits would accrue from reduced aircraft emissions.

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Harms: Economy—Congestion/Delays Internal Links

1. Delays impose $40B in annual costs—will only get worse until we improve aviation infrastructure Steven A. Morrison, chair, Department of Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “Delayed! U.S. Aviation Infrastructure Policy at a Crossroads,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 7. In the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks, travelers’ fears of flying have given way to their anxieties about delays they may encounter when going through airport security, leaving the departure gate and taking off, flying to their destination, and landing and disembarking from the aircraft. In 2005 in-flight delays and earlier airport arrivals for security screening were estimated to cost passengers and airlines in the United States $40 billion annually.1 Of course, delays are hardly a new concern with airline travel. As shown in figure 2-1, travel times have been increasing for the past three decades. Forecasts by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) call for more than 1 billion passenger enplanements by 2016, indicating that landside and airborne delays and their associated costs will become significantly worse unless the nation’s aviation infrastructure—airports and air traffic control—improves the efficiency with which it helps passengers get to their destinations.2

2. Failure to rapidly implement NextGen risks “gridlock in the skies’ Deloitte, TRANSPFORMING THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A BUSINESS CASE FOR PROGRAM ACCELERATION, 7—11, p. 8. According to the FAA website, without NextGen there will be gridlock in the skies in the medium term. By 2022, they estimate that failure to implement would cost the U.S. economy $22 billion annually in lost economic activity. That number grows to over $40 billion per year by 2033 if NextGen is not implemented. Even as early as 2015, FAA simulations show that without some of the initial elements of NextGen, the U.S. will experience delays far greater than what we are seeing today. Current estimates are that U.S. NAS capacity utilization will be reduced from 85% today to 65% of available usage by 2025 without NextGen8, However, the current commercial traffic recession has significantly reduced travel demand and may affect that forecast as least in the short term. However, increased capacity benefits are expected to mainly accrue to airline operators in the future as transformation initiatives are implemented.

3. NextGen funding is key to avoiding gridlock, keeping the system functional Nicholas Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. Scalability. NextGen will be considerably more nimble than today's land-based facility and labor-intensive system. Accordingly, it will be much easier for the FAA to scale the system to meet demand from all aviation sectors, whether that demand is a steady growth curve or fluctuates from time to time. Automation and digital data communications will make it easier for the FAA to adjust the system as needed. Reauthorization legislation that accelerates the delivery of satellite-based air traffic control services will improve the air traveler's experience and make air travel safer. It is indispensable if we are to avoid system gridlock and meet the expanding demands of passengers and shippers. As compelling as the promise of these benefits is, system users must be presented with a complete business plan for NextGen that correlates its benefits and costs. The stakes are high. Implementation of NextGen will demand enormous resources. This means that the program must have meaningful performance metrics.

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Harms: Economy—Consumers Internal Links

4. $1B in investment would produce $3B in gains to travelers Steven A. Morrison, Professor, Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “The Effect of FAA Expenditures on Air Travel Delays,” JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS v. 63, 2008, p. 677. Given that the benefits to airport users from current spending exceed its costs, it is also worth exploring whether FAA expenditures should be increased. Because the production function for air traffic control is likely to exhibit some form of diminishing returns eventually, which is not captured in our delay equations, it would be inappropriate to add capital and labor to the system without any bound. We therefore determine the effect of optimizing FAA spending among airports subject to the previous safety constraint and a constraint that total spending cannot increase more than $1 billion dollars. We find that the spending constraint is binding under optimal spending at each airport and that the $1 billion increase in spending at the sample airports improves airport users’ welfare $3 billion for a net welfare gain of $2 billion.28 Of course, by more than doubling current spending, it is possible that some form of diminishing returns may have been encountered. In any case, it is likely that large benefits exist from increasing spending at towers and TRACONs, especially if expenditures are optimized across airports.

5. NextGen benefits passengers—fewer delays Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 8-9. In addition to reduced operating costs, passengers will also save time with reduced congestion, which is an economic resource. Any unneeded time spent due to congestion adds to the opportunity cost of foregone work or leisure, as well as any discomfort incurred. Travel time saved can thus be valued to reflect both the opportunity cost and discomfort during travelling.22 The transportation literature suggests measuring this value of time in terms of, or as a percentage of, an hourly wage rate. For this analysis, the FAA “all purpose” hourly rate of $28.60 is used. The total cost of delays to passengers is estimated to be about $5.37 billion, or about $25.84 per passenger, which is about 7.7 percent of the average nominal ticket price of $336 in 2010.23 Table 3 shows the estimated value of the time that NextGen can save passengers under different delay reduction scenarios and the resulting average dollar savings per passenger.24 The results show that for a one percent reduction in delays, the total value of travel time saved is about $53.7 million, or about 25 cents per passenger. For a five percent delay reduction, total savings is $268.5 million annually or $1.292/passenger. For a moderate 10 percent delay reduction, this is about 5.4 minutes saved per flight per passenger, the total savings amount to $537 million per year, or $2.584 per passenger. The savings are significantly larger using the FAA’s delay savings estimates: $1.074 billion per year or $5.167 per passenger for a 20 percent delay reduction, and $1.88 billion/year or $9.042 per passenger for a 35 percent delay reduction.

6. NextGen benefits consumers—fewer delays, more efficiency Nicholas Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. Operational Integrity and Customer Satisfaction. Closely linked to capacity, efficiency and productivity is operational integrity. By expanding capacity and enabling more efficient operations, NextGen will enable better on-time performance and improved customer satisfaction. Today's outdated ATC system contributes to delays and disruptions that will be reduced when NextGen is implemented. With improved operational integrity comes fewer delays, fewer missed connections, fewer misplaced checked bags and more satisfied customers.

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Harms: Economy—Employment

1. Aviation is vital to the economy—job creation Edward Bolen, President and CEO, National Business Aviation Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. We commend the Subcommittee for your commitment to improve our nation's aviation system and on-going efforts to foster economic growth and job creation during these challenging economic times, NBAA strongly supports these efforts and believes that the importance of a robust aviation system cannot be overemphasized. Aviation, including business aviation, is a vital link in our transportation system and powerful engine for job creation and economic growth. NBAA was founded 67 years ago to represent companies that utilize genera! aviation aircraft as a tool for meeting some of their transportation challenges. NBAA and our members are committed to working with the government to transform and modernize the nation's aviation system. Likewise, we are committed to policies that support the continued growth of each aviation segment, including general aviation, which plays a critical role in driving economic growth, jobs and investment across the U.S. General aviation is an essential economic generator, contributing more than $150 billion to annual U.S. economic output, and directly or indirectly employing more than one million people. Most general aviation aircraft operating around the world are manufactured and/or completed in the U.S., and our industry is continuing to build a strong American manufacturing and employment base that contributes positively to our national balance of trade.

2. NextGen spending increases employment Peter Bunce, President and CEO, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. Finally, as an industry that has lost nearly 20,000 manufacturing jobs throughout the last year and a half, we want to put people back to work. This federal investment not only moves NextGen forward, but it will provide more Americans with the opportunity for good jobs in our nation's avionics companies and maintenance facilities while maintaining our global leadership in a key manufacturing sector.

3. Air transportation infrastructure investment spurs job creation Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation, THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CIVIL AVIATION ON THE U.S. ECONOMY, 8—11, p. 5. Even during tough times, the efficiency of our air transport network serves commerce and supports jobs that maintain and revitalize the strength of the U.S. economy. Today, despite the lingering effects of the recent recession, there is cautious optimism in the air transport sector of the U.S. economy. The industry continues to be flexible, developing new, innovative ways to lower costs and increase revenues. • For example, as the price of jet fuel climbs, air carriers are finding innovative ways to conserve fuel and lower costs by: replacing old, heavy drink carts with new lighter versions, removing seat back telephones, installing lighter seats and TV monitors, applying new coating on airframes to improve airflow, and purchasing more tugs to reduce engine fuel use. • Investment in air transportation infrastructure leads to smart growth and job creation. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 provided funding to invest $200 million in FAA facilities and equipment and $1.1 billion in grants-in-aid for airports.

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Harms: Economy—General Internal Links

1. NextGen will create enormous economic benefits John Porcari, Deputy Secretary, Department of Transportation, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS, 2—8—12, lexis. The Department of Transportation has committed to deploying the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) to modernize America's air traffic control system. NextGen will transform America's air traffic control system from the aging ground-based system of today to a satellite-based system of the future. NextGen employs GPS technology to shorten routes, save time and fuel, reduce traffic delays, increase capacity, and permit controllers to monitor and manage aircraft with greater safety margins. The FAA and industry have invested as much as $8 billion into NextGen. The FAA conservatively estimates that the benefits of NextGen will total $23 billion by 2018, and over $120 billion by 2030.

2. Air traffic control investment boosts economy—should be the top infrastructure priority

Nicholas E. Calio, President, Air Transport Association of America, “Aviation Infrastructure Is Vital to Winning the Future,” THE HILL, Congress Blog, 2—9—11, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/technology/143033-aviation-infrastructure-is-vital-to-winning-the-future, accessed 5-22-12. Making real progress on the deficit requires that we spark economic growth that drives job creation and generates additional tax revenue. It is essential that key infrastructure projects receive funding now so that industries like commercial aviation that enable businesses to grow can contribute more to the economic recovery. Providing the funding to accelerate implementation of modern air traffic infrastructure should be a top priority in the 112th Congress. The antiquated, ground-based system in place today is a major drag on productivity.

3. NextGen will address congestion—increases the system’s capacity Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. Capacity. The current ATC system is saturated and, in some locations, cannot provide the capacity to meet the public’s demand for convenient, safe air transportation. This situation inhibits competition and industry growth. It also is the source of unnecessary congestion and delays, and compounds the effect of weather-related delays. NextGen will enable more precise spacing of aircraft and flight paths, which will allow FAA to handle safely and efficiently the traffic growth that it forecasts.

4. Bolstering the aviation industry will improve the overall economy Nicholas Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. We are at a critical juncture in the relationship between the airline industry and the larger economy. The industry suffers from tax policies and an outmoded air traffic control system that harm airlines and their customers. The economy suffers from what has emerged as a chronic inability to produce jobs on the scale that our society needs. Airlines have the ability to generate jobs, both within the industry and throughout the economy. We ask that reauthorization lay down policies that not only improve the safety of air travel but also enable us to be an engine of job growth.

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Harms: Economy—General Internal Links [cont’d]

5. Plan boosts the economy, U.S. competitiveness

Nicholas E. Calio, President, Air Transport Association of America, “Aviation Infrastructure Is Vital to Winning the Future,” THE HILL, Congress Blog, 2—9—11, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/technology/143033-aviation-infrastructure-is-vital-to-winning-the-future, accessed 5-22-12. As Ben Franklin famously proclaimed, time is money. Unfortunately, the nation has been losing both for years because our archaic air traffic control system has been unable to meet the demands placed upon it – let alone the demands of the future. According to a recent study commissioned by the FAA, flight delays cost the U.S. $31 billion in 2007. With a satellite-based system, airline efficiency will increase and flight delays will be minimized. Safety and customer satisfaction will improve and businesses - large and small - will reap the benefits of greater efficiency and be better positioned to create jobs. Commercial aviation already provides key connections that make the economy grow. The industry contributes $1.2 trillion to the economy, is responsible for 5.2 percent of the nation’s GDP and supports nearly 11 million jobs. A fully operational, NextGen air traffic management system will unleash the true economic power of commercial aviation and benefit every industry in this country. Conservative estimates predict that implementation of this system will lead to the creation of more than 150,000 jobs. In reality, the economic impact of this investment in modern infrastructure will be exponentially bigger. The sky is the limit for what this industry can contribute to the economy. Now it is up to our leaders in Washington to provide airlines with the infrastructure needed to compete successfully and support the U.S. in our national ambition to win in the global economy.

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Harms: Economy—Multiwarrant

1. Aviation is key to the economy—jobs, exports, transportation Deloitte, TRANSPFORMING THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A BUSINESS CASE FOR PROGRAM ACCELERATION, 7—11, p. 7. It should be pointed out that benefits of ATS transformation initiatives to the General Aviation (GA) community are significantly different in that they generally do not fly for compensation or hire, typically fly less in congested airspace (but are active in high density airspace as well) and do not fly scheduled routes. Thus the ATS transformation investment economics are different for the GA community than for the airlines. The NAS has a far reaching impact on the air transportation industry and the U.S. economy. According to the FAA in their recent 2009 economic impact survey, civil aviation contributes $1.3 trillion annually to the U.S. economy or 5.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). It generates nearly 12 million jobs with earnings of $369 billion. The same report cites that the U.S. civil aviation manufacturing industry remains the single largest contributor to the nation’s balance of trade, exporting $70.5 billion and importing $22.2 billion in relevant products in 2009, for a net surplus of $48.3 billion. The industry contributes positively to the U.S. trade balance, creates high paying jobs, keeps just in time business models viable and connects friends, family and commercial opportunities.

2. Air traffic control investment key to economy, competitiveness

Nicholas E. Calio, President, Air Transport Association of America, “Aviation Infrastructure Is Vital to Winning the Future,” THE HILL, Congress Blog, 2—9—11, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/technology/143033-aviation-infrastructure-is-vital-to-winning-the-future, accessed 5-22-12. In his State of the Union address, President Obama focused the nation’s attention on the economic importance of investing in infrastructure. America can win the future, and successfully compete against emerging powers such as China if we transform our economy with modern technology and infrastructure. As Congress moves forward with the reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), lawmakers have an opportunity to pass a jobs bill that will enhance the global competitiveness of the U.S. economy. It is vital that our government better utilize aviation policy to fuel economic growth, mindful that our competitors are effectively using commercial aviation to further their national ambitions. The growth markets of the world understand how commercial aviation can transform an economy and they are investing accordingly. Just a few weeks ago, China announced plans to pour a total of 1.5 trillion Yuan, roughly $228 billion, into its aviation sector over the next five years, including the construction of 11 new commercial airports and the acquisition of 290 new planes in 2011 alone. We must meet the challenge with government investment in our nation’s air traffic control system. This is critical infrastructure that will allow us to keep pace with our competitors. We have the technology. Now it is time for America to step into the future by fully deploying a modern system that supports the national goals of global competitiveness and putting people back to work.

3. NextGen boosts the economy—multiple measures

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), WHY NEXTGEN MATTES, 3—17—11, http://www.faa.gov/nextgen/why_nextgen_matters/, accessed 4-23-12. NextGen is a comprehensive overhaul of our National Airspace System to make air travel more convenient and dependable, while ensuring your flight is as safe, secure and hassle-free as possible. In a continuous roll-out of improvements and upgrades, the FAA is building the capability to guide and track air traffic more precisely and efficiently to save fuel and reduce noise and pollution. NextGen is better for our environment, and better for our economy. NextGen will be a better way of doing business. Travel will be more predictable because there will be fewer delays, less time sitting on the ground and holding in the air, with more flexibility to get around weather problems. NextGen will reduce aviation’s impact on the environment. Flying will be quieter, cleaner and more fuel-efficient. We’ll use alternative fuels, new equipment and operational procedures, lessening our impact on the climate. More precise flight paths help us limit the amount of noise that communities experience. NextGen will help us be even more proactive about preventing accidents with advanced safety management to enable us, with other government agencies and aviation partners, to better predict risks and then identify and resolve hazards. NextGen boils down to getting the right information to the right person at the right time. It will help controllers and operators make better decisions. This data will assist operators in keeping employees and passengers better informed. Our nation’s economy depends on aviation. NextGen lays a foundation that will continually improve and accommodate future needs of air travel while strengthening the economy with one seamless global sky. NextGen will help communities make better use of their airports. More robust airports can help communities attract new jobs, and help current employers expand their businesses. By doing this the U.S. will strengthen its economy and help communities realize all the benefits that aviation can bring. NextGen will allow us to meet our increasing national security needs and ensure that travelers benefit from the highest levels of safety.

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Harms: Economy—Multiwarrant [cont’d]

4. Aviation is vital to the economy—enables other industries Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation, THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CIVIL AVIATION ON THE U.S. ECONOMY, 8—11, p. 36-37. Throughout the history of aviation, technological improvements have lowered the cost and increased the availability of air transportation to an ever wider market. These improvements include more efficient, safer and environmentally friendly aircraft, constructed with stronger and lighter materials. Modern engine and aircraft designs mean more efficient travel and shipping over longer distances. In more recent decades, improvements in computer technology led to enhancements in the cockpit, on the ground and throughout the air traffic system. Web access led to revolutionary changes in how customers purchase tickets, and digital technology brought about greater efficiencies in handling airline tickets and luggage. Furthermore, digital technology transformed the way freight is delivered among cities. In essence, all of these technological changes are “embodied” in the assets used within the air transportation industry, reducing capital input costs. In turn, these cost reductions lead to expanded flight availability, increasing business and personal air travel and enabling other industries to transport goods less expensively by air.41 Air transportation is a key enabler for other industries such as tourism or industries that transport goods by air. Low fares and increased flight availability increase passenger travel, benefiting the tourism industry and other companies that require business travel, and also help industries that rely on air freight to transport high-value goods. As technology improves, relative fares and costs fall as flight availability rises, facilitating productivity and output gains in these industries. Transportation services provided by air carriers stimulate activity in other parts of the economy. For example, when air passengers reach their destinations, they spend money on hotel accommodations and food services, entertainment, sightseeing tours and so on. In addition, businesses that produce relatively high-value or perishable goods may prefer to ship their products to customers by air.42 In 2008, the value of commodities shipped by air was $72,516 per ton, far higher than any other mode of transportation (Table 13). Typically these are manufactured or technology-oriented goods or agricultural commodities. Values of the top 10 commodities transported by air appear in Table 14. Electronics and machinery are the top two commodities transported by air. Without air transportation, many of these commodities could not be delivered and, therefore, could not be produced; also, without air transportation, many travelers may choose to forgo trips altogether due to the relative time-intensiveness of the alternative modes of transportation. These are called enabled effects – the economic activity generated by air-passenger destination spending and the value of goods transported by air.

5. NextGen is key to the aviation sector, which is vital to the world economy

Aerospace Industries Association, “Civil Aviation,” 2011, http://www.aia-aerospace.org/assets/ip_civil_2011.pdf, accessed 4-23-12. The most recent data show that the sale of goods and services tied directly or indirectly to civil aviation constituted $1.3 trillion, or about 5.6 percent of the nation’s total gross domestic product in 2009. Our industry directly and indirectly sustains nearly 12 million jobs. The U.S. aerospace industry remains the single largest contributor to the nation’s balance of trade, with $87 billion in exports and a $57.4 billion trade surplus in 2011. The global recession of the past few years has reduced demand for leisure and business travel and the shipment of just-in-time goods. Many of our nation’s aging aviation infrastructure limitations have been masked by the economic slowdown. Delays are down; aircraft CO2 emissions are 10 percent below 2005 levels. Yet, our 1960s-era air traffic control system will not be able to handle demand when it returns. Unless we invest in sorely needed transformational aviation infrastructure now, civil aviation-generated economic growth will be stunted and the economic cost of system delay will likely eclipse $40 billion annually by 2012. FAA has already invested more than$3 billion in the Next Generation Air Transportation System and plans to spend up to $20 billion more. The contract to install ADS-B ground stations throughout the country is on time and on budget and should be completed by 2013. The economic and environmental benefits of NextGen, when fully implemented, are impressive. Routing and delay-reducing efficiencies will save billions of dollars annually and save more than a billion gallons of fuel. Those are conservative estimates which will provide an economic return on government investment in less than three years and will be the environmental equivalent of removing 2.2 million cars off the road. The global aviation industry has committed to improve overall fuel efficiency by 1.5 percent per year through 2020; achieve carbon neutral growth from 2020; and cut aviation’s net CO2 emissions in half by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. One of the biggest impediments to confidence in the country’s commitment to implement NextGen expeditiously is that our National Airspace System has been operating without an updated program and funding authority (a FAA Reauthorization Bill) for nearly four years. This unprecedented delay in modernizing the statutes that govern the oversight and operation of the most complex aviation authority in the world has had numerous deleterious effects. New starts are prohibited. Programs are not anchored to long-term financial authority. And new concepts and technologies such as unmanned aircraft systems are held back while other nations march forward. AIA RECOMMENDATIONS Like our national defense, funding for the safety and efficiency of our nation’s aviation infrastructure should never be shortchanged. The safe and fiscally sensible course of action is to accelerate, not delay, the implementation of NextGen. By doing so, we invigorate the economy, generate jobs, save fuel, reduce CO2 emissions and, most importantly, improve system safety.

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Harms: Warming—Leadership Add-On 2AC

1. Efforts to combat climate change key to overall leadership CNA Military Advisory Board, General Charles F. Ward, General, USAF (ret.), chair, POWERING AMERICA’S DEFENSE: ENERGY AND THE RISKS TO NATIONAL SECURITY, 5—09, p. 23. The Intelligence Assessment underscores the importance to national security of U.S. leadership on both climate mitigation and adaptation issues. Dr. Fingar testified that “government, business and public efforts to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies to deal with climate change… may affect U.S. national security interests even more than the physical impacts of climate change itself.” He said the issue of climate change will become a more prominent international issue, and the “U.S.’s leadership overall in the global arena will be judged by the extent to which it is perceived as forging a viable and effective global consensus for tackling climate change.” America’s role in this process moving forward will be scrutinized closely by friend and foe, with significant impact on our ability to negotiate and act in other international arenas.

2. Leadership prevents nuclear war, extinction Thomas P.M. Barnett, U.S. Naval War College, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., Globalization, at Crossroads," WORLD POLITICS REVIEW, 3--7--11, Ebsco. It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of arguably the greatest structural change in the global order yet endured, with this historical moment's most amazing feature being its relative and absolute lack of mass violence. That is something to consider when Americans contemplate military intervention in Libya, because if we do take the step to prevent larger-scale killing by engaging in some killing of our own, we will not be adding to some fantastically imagined global death count stemming from the ongoing "megalomania" and "evil" of American "empire." We'll be engaging in the same sort of system-administering activity that has marked our stunningly successful stewardship of global order since World War II. Let me be more blunt: As the guardian of globalization, the U.S. military has been the greatest force for peace the world has ever known. Had America been removed from the global dynamics that governed the 20th century, the mass murder never would have ended. Indeed, it's entirely conceivable there would now be no identifiable human civilization left, once nuclear weapons entered the killing equation. But the world did not keep sliding down that path of perpetual war. Instead, America stepped up and changed everything by ushering in our now-perpetual great-power peace. We introduced the international liberal trade order known as globalization and played loyal Leviathan over its spread. What resulted was the collapse of empires, an explosion of democracy, the persistent spread of human rights, the liberation of women, the doubling of life expectancy, a roughly 10-fold increase in adjusted global GDP and a profound and persistent reduction in battle deaths from state-based conflicts. That is what American "hubris" actually delivered. Please remember that the next time some TV pundit sells you the image of "unbridled" American military power as the cause of global disorder instead of its cure. With self-deprecation bordering on self-loathing, we now imagine a post-American world that is anything but. Just watch who scatters and who steps up as the Facebook revolutions erupt across the Arab world. While we might imagine ourselves the status quo power, we remain the world's most vigorously revisionist force. As for the sheer "evil" that is our military-industrial complex, again, let's examine what the world looked like before that establishment reared its ugly head. The last great period of global structural change was the first half of the 20th century, a period that saw a death toll of about 100 million across two world wars. That comes to an average of 2 million deaths a year in a world of approximately 2 billion souls. Today, with far more comprehensive worldwide reporting, researchers report an average of less than 100,000 battle deaths annually in a world fast approaching 7 billion people. Though admittedly crude, these calculations suggest a 90 percent absolute drop and a 99 percent relative drop in deaths due to war. We are clearly headed for a world order characterized by multipolarity, something the American-birthed system was designed to both encourage and accommodate. But given how things turned out the last time we collectively faced such a fluid structure, we would do well to keep U.S. power, in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. To continue the historical survey, after salvaging Western Europe from its half-century of civil war, the U.S. emerged as the progenitor of a new, far more just form of globalization -- one based on actual free trade rather than colonialism. America then successfully replicated globalization further in East Asia over the second half of the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

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Harms: Warming—Aviation Emissions Will Increase

1. Carbon footprint of airlines is increasing rapidly Sam Capoccitti, Anshuman Khare, Athabasca University and Udo Mildenberger, IPE Media University, “Aviation Industry – Mitigating Climate Change Impacts through Technology and Policy,” JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT & INNOATION v. 5 n. 2, 2010, doi: 10.4067/S0718-27242010000200006. Aviation plays a vital role in society as demonstrated above; it generates jobs and supports commercial and private travel. However one of the negative impacts of travel is its environmental impact associated with local noise and air pollution. A number of aircraft emissions can affect climate, carbon dioxide (CO2), Nitrogen oxides (NOx), and water (H2O) do so directly. Even though vehicles and aircraft are becoming more efficient, but the fact remains that people are driving and flying more than ever. This increases the miles traveled and transport-related emissions. In short, airline carbon footprint is growing at a rapid pace and it must be addressed.

2. Aviation air pollution/emissions is set to increase

Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 5—6—08, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08706t.pdf, accessed 4-9-12. Currently, aviation contributes a modest proportion of total emissions in the United States, but its share could increase in the future, and aviation emissions can have a detrimental effect on health and the environment. Aircraft are the primary source of aviation emissions, but airport operations, including those of service and passenger vehicles, also produce emissions. Together, aircraft operations in the vicinity of the airport and other airport sources emit nitrogen oxides, which lead to the formation of ground-level ozone (also known as smog), and other substances that contribute to local air pollution, as well as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that rise into the atmosphere and contribute to climate change. Aircraft operations in the upper atmosphere are, however, the primary aviation-related source of greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, according to EPA estimates, aviation emissions account for less than 1 percent of local air pollution nationwide and about 2.7 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. This proportion is, however, expected to grow with projected increases in air traffic, despite expected improvements in fuel efficiency. Notably, according to FAA, emissions of nitrogen oxides from aviation sources will increase by over 90 percent by 2025 if not addressed. This increase is likely to increase ozone, which aggravates respiratory ailments. Increases in air traffic also mean increases in carbon dioxide emissions and increases in aviation’s contribution to climate change, according to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

3. Aviation’s air polluting effects are set to increase

Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 5—6—08, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08706t.pdf, accessed 4-9-12. As air traffic increases, aviation’s contribution to air pollution and climate change could also grow, despite ongoing improvements in fuel efficiency, particularly if other sectors achieve significant reductions. In addition, aviation’s impact on air quality is changing as more fuel-efficient, quieter aircraft engines are placed in service. While new aircraft engine technologies have reduced fuel consumption, noise, and emissions of most pollutants, they have not achieved the same level of reductions in nitrogen oxide emissions, which contribute to ozone formation. According to FAA, nitrogen oxide emissions from aviation will increase by over 90 percent by 2025 without improvements in aircraft emissions technologies and air traffic management, and emissions of other air pollutants will also increase, as shown in figure 2. Additionally, aviation’s greenhouse gas emissions and potential contribution to climate change is expected to increase. IPCC has estimated that aircraft emissions are likely to grow by 3 percent per year, outpacing the emissions reductions achieved through technological improvements. Furthermore, as emissions from other sources decline, aviation’s contribution to climate change may become proportionally larger, according to FAA. Alternative fuels are not yet available in sufficient quantities for jet aircraft, as they are for some other uses, and therefore aviation cannot yet adopt this approach to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions (see discussion below on U.S. efforts to develop alternative fuels for aviation).

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Harms: Warming—Aviation Emissions Will Increase [cont’d]

4. Aviation is growing rapidly, is under pressure to cut emissions David Hodgkinson, Alex Coram and Renee Garner, “Strategies for Airlines on Aircraft Emissions and Climate Change; Sustainable, Long-Term Solutions,” WORKING PAPER n. 2, Hodgkinson Group, 6—07, p. 4. Aviation is one of the fastest-growing sectors of the world economy. Over the next 20 years more than 27,000 new aircraft will be delivered; the number of air travelers will double to 9 billion over the same period. Against this background of significant growth in air travel, and as a result of increasing awareness on the part of governments and the public with regard to climate change and its possible consequences, pressure is being placed on the aviation industry - and airlines in particular - to address the climate impacts of aviation. A number of organisations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Oxford University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Tyndall Centre, for example, have studied the impacts of aviation on the global atmosphere.

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Harms: Warming—Aviation Key

1. Need to address air emissions—have a magnified effect on warming Sam Capoccitti, Anshuman Khare, Athabasca University and Udo Mildenberger, IPE Media University, “Aviation Industry – Mitigating Climate Change Impacts through Technology and Policy,” JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT & INNOATION v. 5 n. 2, 2010, doi: 10.4067/S0718-27242010000200006. The main environmental concerns associated with aircraft are climate change, stratospheric ozone reduction (leading to increased surface UV radiation, regional pollution, and local pollution. During flight, aircraft engines emit carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen oxides of sulphur, water vapour, hydrocarbons and particles - the particles consist mainly of sulphate from sulphur oxides, and soot. These emissions alter the chemical composition of the atmosphere in a variety of ways, both directly and indirectly (RCEP, 2002). While much of the CO2 is absorbed on Earth in plants and the ocean surface, a huge amount goes into the atmosphere, where it and other gases create a kind of lid around the globe --the so-called greenhouse effect. Heat that would normally escape into space is thus reflected back to Earth, raising global temperatures (Lehrer, 2001). Nitrogen oxides (NOx) and H2O vapor from aircraft increase the formation of cirrus clouds and create contrails, which are visible from the ground. The combination of " contrails and cirrus clouds warm the Earth's surface magnifying the global warming effect of aviation. Together, NOx and water vapour account for nearly two-thirds of aviation's impact on the atmosphere (IPCC estimated that radiative forcing from all aircraft greenhouse gas emissions is a factor of 2 to 4 times higher than that from its CO2 emissions alone). Hence any strategy to reduce aircraft emissions will need to consider other gases and not just CO2" (GreenSkies, n.d.; pg.1). The environmental issues associated with flight are also correlated with the altitude at which the carbon dioxide is emitted, the higher the attitude the greater damage to the ozone layer. Research has shown that the majority of flights fly at an altitude between 29,500 ft and 39,400 ft (9-12 km). Figure 1 (Federal Aviation Administration, 2005; pg. 32) highlights the distribution to total fuel burn and emissions by 1 km altitudes for the year 2000. The lower spike in fuel burn and emissions in the 0-1 km range is attributed to aircraft emissions from the ground when aircraft are idling or taxiing. It was noticed after the events of 9/11 (when there was a temporary halt to all commercial flights) that the Earth's temperature was 1 to 2 degrees Celsius colder, which coincides with the theory that aircraft emissions do impact the environment.

2. Need to address airline emissions Sam Capoccitti, Anshuman Khare, Athabasca University and Udo Mildenberger, IPE Media University, “Aviation Industry – Mitigating Climate Change Impacts through Technology and Policy,” JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT & INNOATION v. 5 n. 2, 2010, doi: 10.4067/S0718-27242010000200006. The aviation industry transports 2.2 billion passengers annually while providing trade and tourism for developed and developing regions (Penner et.al., 2001). Although airlines have improved their fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions over the past 10 years (5% from 2003 to 2005), the industries greenhouse gas emissions could reach 5% by 2050 (Balch, 2009). Airlines are determined to reduce their CO2 emissions a further 25% between 2006 and 2020 with huge investments in fleet renewal (IATA, 2007). The challenges faced by the industry have vastly been covered in this review of CO2 emissions in the aviation industry. The option of eliminating air travel is not a feasible alternative in order to deal with aviation greenhouse gas emissions as aviation is the most efficient way of traveling; especially long distance international travel. Other modes of transportation (rail, sea and road) are not as quick, and in the case of motor transportation are much more damaging to the environment then air travel.

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Harms: Warming—Aviation Key [cont’d]

3. Effect of aviation on climate is magnified, is increasing rapidly David Hodgkinson, Alex Coram and Renee Garner, “Strategies for Airlines on Aircraft Emissions and Climate Change; Sustainable, Long-Term Solutions,” WORKING PAPER n. 2, Hodgkinson Group, 6—07, p. 4-5. These studies, together with reports from Royal Commissions and other inquiries, make the following points clear: * the climate change impacts of aviation are significantly worse than those of its carbon dioxide emissions alone. Further, reference to aviation being responsible for 2% of global carbon dioxide emissions is misleading as the figure (a) is based on total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 1992 (as determined by the IPCC), not 2007; (b) does not take into account aviation’s non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which significantly contribute to the climate change impacts of aviation; and (c) ignores growth in air travel; * air travel demand is growing at unprecedented rates, yet substantial reductions of aviation GHG emissions are not possible in the short to medium term; * not only are emissions from air travel increasing significantly in absolute terms but, against a background of emissions reductions from many other sources, their relative rate of increase is even greater. Put another way, “if the [recommended] reductions in carbon dioxide emissions from ground-level activities … are achieved, and the growth in air transport projected by the IPCC materialises, then air travel will become one of the major sources of anthropogenic climate change by 2050;” development of alternative jet fuels and aircraft technological developments, together with the development of more efficient operational practices and more efficient air traffic management systems and processes, will only partially offset the growth in aviation emissions; * there is presently no systematic or compulsory incentive to reduce international aviation emissions; * without government action to significantly reduce aviation growth within the UK, for example, aviation emissions may be greater than those forecast for all other sectors of the economy. As a result, aviation may exceed the carbon target for all sectors by 2050; * as another example, “[i]f the aviation industry is allowed to grow at rates even lower than those being experienced today, the EU could see aviation accounting for between 39% and 79% of its total carbon budget by 2050, depending on the stabilisation level chosen. For the UK, the respective figures are between 50% and 100%;” * the level of any carbon price faced by aviation should reflect the full contribution of emissions from aviation to climate change; and * all other sectors of the economy would have to significantly decarbonise to allow the aviation industry to grow and to continue to use kerosene. This last point is of particular concern as it raises the very real possibility of economic – and, thus, political – conflict between the airline industry and other sectors. This has the potential for unpredictable and destabilising outcomes.

4. Aircraft emit greenhouse gases other than CO2 David Hodgkinson, Alex Coram and Renee Garner, “Strategies for Airlines on Aircraft Emissions and Climate Change; Sustainable, Long-Term Solutions,” WORKING PAPER n. 2, Hodgkinson Group, 6—07, p. 13. In its 1999 report, the IPCC concluded that in 1992 emissions of carbon dioxide by aircraft represented about 2% of total anthropogenic (or man-made) carbon dioxide emissions57 about 13% of carbon dioxide emissions from all transportation sources.58 However, during flight, in addition to carbon dioxide, aircraft engines also emit nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide (together, NOx, which form ozone59 at altitude), as well as oxides of sulphur, water vapour (resulting in contrails and cirrus clouds at altitude), hydrocarbons and particles. Uniquely, most of these emissions occur far above the earth’s surface: [a]ircraft emit gases and particles directly into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere where they have an impact on atmospheric composition. These gases and particles alter the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), and methane (CH4); trigger formation of condensation trails (contrails); and may increase cirrus cloudiness - all of which contribute to climate change.

5. Effect of airline emissions is magnified relative to other sources David Hodgkinson, Alex Coram and Renee Garner, “Strategies for Airlines on Aircraft Emissions and Climate Change; Sustainable, Long-Term Solutions,” WORKING PAPER n. 2, Hodgkinson Group, 6—07, p. 15. For the GAO, aircraft emissions are potentially significant because: * jet aircraft are the main source of human emissions released directly into the upper atmosphere; * emissions (carbon dioxide and other gases and particles emitted by aircraft83) could have 2 to 4 times the effect of CO2 alone on the atmosphere; and * the IPCC concluded that “the increase in aviation emissions attributable to a growing demand for air travel would not be fully offset by reductions in emissions achieved through technological improvements alone.”84 The GAO’s conclusion is based on its assessment of the 1999 IPCC report – like other studies and reports considered here - together with “consultations with knowledgeable agency officials and other experts.”

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Harms: Warming—Impact Extensions

1. Warming increases war risks--multiple triggers

Deron Lovaas, Federal Transportation Policy Director, Natural Resources Defense Council, Testimony before the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, Subcommittee on Highways and Transit, 3--30--11, www.nrdc.org/energy/files/dlovaas_transportation_20110330.pdf, accessed 4-9-12. Apart from economic impacts, our oil dependence poses a national security concern for strategic military and defense reasons. Oil consumption by the transportation sector is a major source of heat-trapping pollution, accounting for approximately one-third of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to the numerous environmental impacts, climate change carries worrisome security implications. An increasing number of security experts at CNA Corporation, the Center for Strategic and International Studies as well as the Defense Department have identified climate change as a challenge to the nation. CNA describes a “threat multiplier” effect due to climate change whereby regions of the world that are already stressed due to poor social, economic and/or political conditions risk degenerating into disaster and/or civil war zones with additional stress due to the unpredictable impacts of climate change. Asian, African and Middle Eastern countries are particularly susceptible to such a scenario. As CNA sums up: “Economic and environmental conditions in already fragile areas will further erode as food production declines, diseases increase, clean water becomes increasingly scarce, and large populations move in search of resources. Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism, and movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies.”

2. Worst-case scenario temp increases risk making much of the Earth uninhabitable Michael Werz, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress and Laura Conley, graduate student, International Relations, University of Chicago, CLIMATE CHANGE, MIGRATION, AND CONFLICT: ADDRESSING COMPLEX CRISIS SCENARIOS IN THE 21ST CENTURY, 1—12, p. 11. The relationship between human migration and climate change is beginning to become an issue worthy of increasing attention in the international realm. The United Nations consistently tries to draw more attention to the issue, and in 2008 the European Union’s foreign policy chief issued a dire warning that large numbers of climate migrants from Africa were headed for Europe.24 If “worst case” climate change scenarios of more than a 10 degree Fahrenheit average increase in global temperatures were to come true, then our planet would become uninhabitable in many parts that are relatively stable right now.

3. Addressing warming is as great a moral imperative as ending slavery

Michael McCarthy, "Global Warming Issue 'on Par with Slavery'," INDEPENDENT, 4--7--12, http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/global-warming-issue-on-par-with-slavery-7624916.html, accessed 4-9-12. Dealing with climate change is a moral issue on a par with ending slavery, the world's most celebrated climate scientist, James Hansen, of Nasa, believes. Dr Hansen, who heads Nasa's Goddard Institute of Space Studies, will be making the slavery comparison in his acceptance speech for the Edinburgh Medal next Tuesday, when he will also be calling for a global tax on all carbon emissions. Nothing less will do, he will argue, so urgent is the challenge which climate change presents for future generations. The Edinburgh Medal is awarded each year to scientists and technological experts judged to have made a significant contribution to the understanding and well-being of humanity. Widely thought of as "the father of global warming" – his dramatic alert about climate change in US Senate hearings in July 1988 put the issue on the world agenda – Dr Hansen is now one of the most outspoken advocates of drastic climate action. He said last year he thought climate sceptics were winning the global warming argument with the public. In his acceptance speech, he will argue that an immediate worldwide carbon tax is needed to force cuts in fossil fuel use, and that current generations have an over-riding moral duty to their children and grandchildren to act now.

4. CO2 causes ocean acidification—threatens marine environment and economy

Dr. Peter H. Gleick, Director, Pacific Institute, “Not Going Away: America’s Energy Security, Jobs and Climate Challenges,” Testimony before the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming,” 12-1-10, www.pacinst.org/publications/testimony/gleick_testimony_climate_strategies.pdf, accessed 12-2-10. In 2008, the EGU issued a position statement on ocean acidification which states, "Ocean acidification is already occurring today and will continue to intensify, closely tracking atmospheric CO2 increase. Given the potential threat to marine ecosystems and its ensuing impact on human society and economy, especially as it acts in conjunction with anthropogenic global warming, there is an urgent need for immediate action." The statement then advocates for strategies "to limit future release of CO2 to the atmosphere and/or enhance removal of excess CO2 from the atmosphere."

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Harms: Warming—Must Act Now

1. Delay only makes things worse

Dr. Peter H. Gleick, Director, Pacific Institute, “Not Going Away: America’s Energy Security, Jobs and Climate Challenges,” Testimony before the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming,” 12-1-10, www.pacinst.org/publications/testimony/gleick_testimony_climate_strategies.pdf, accessed 12-2-11. 4. The nation now faces only three options -- mitigation, adaptation, and suffering. That is to say we can only (1) work to reduce the severity of future climate change through efforts to cut or mitigate emissions of greenhouse pollutants; (2) work to adapt to unavoidable climatic change already locked into the system; and (3) suffer the consequences of changing climate. The only question is how much of each option we do. We are now faced with unavoidable climate changes because we (the world) have delayed too long to implement policies to reduce greenhouse gas emission. The impacts of unavoidable climate change are going to be significant and will grow in extent and severity the longer we continue to delay efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. In fact, it appears that many of our estimates of the rate of climate change have been too low, not too high, and climate changes are happening faster than expected. As a result, in twenty more years, the Earth will be even hotter, sea levels will be higher and rising faster, water and food resources will be increasingly stressed, extinction rates will accelerate, and our forced expenditures for climate adaptation will be far, far greater than they would otherwise have been if efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions had been implemented earlier.

2. Must act now—changes are accelerating

Dr. Peter H. Gleick, Director, Pacific Institute, “Not Going Away: America’s Energy Security, Jobs and Climate Challenges,” Testimony before the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming,” 12-1-10, www.pacinst.org/publications/testimony/gleick_testimony_climate_strategies.pdf, accessed 12-2-11. The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society. Accumulating data from across the globe reveal a wide array of effects: rapidly melting glaciers, destabilization of major ice sheets, increases in extreme weather, rising sea level, shifts in species ranges, and more. The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.

3. Warming is real and human-caused—must act now

Dr. Peter H. Gleick, Director, Pacific Institute, “Not Going Away: America’s Energy Security, Jobs and Climate Challenges,” Testimony before the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming,” 12-1-10, www.pacinst.org/publications/testimony/gleick_testimony_climate_strategies.pdf, accessed 12-2-11. Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes. The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.

4. Must act now

Dr. Peter H. Gleick, Director, Pacific Institute, “Not Going Away: America’s Energy Security, Jobs and Climate Challenges,” Testimony before the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming,” 12-1-10, www.pacinst.org/publications/testimony/gleick_testimony_climate_strategies.pdf, accessed 12-2-11. There will be inevitable climate changes from the greenhouse gases already added to the Earth system…there is adequate evidence from observations and interpretations of climate simulations to conclude that the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; that humans have significantly contributed to this change; and that further climate change will continue to have important impacts on human societies, on economies, on ecosystems, and on wildlife through the 21st century and beyond. Focusing on the next 30 years, convergence among emission scenarios and model results suggest strongly that increasing air temperatures will reduce snowpack, shift snowmelt timing, reduce crop production and rangeland fertility, and cause continued melting of the ice caps and sea level rise… Policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of the impacts of climate change. Policy decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. Some continued climate change is inevitable, and the policy debate should also consider the best ways to adapt to climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in managing our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life.

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Harms: Warming—NextGen Solves

1. Fuel savings/emissions cuts are huge—billions per year Deloitte, TRANSPFORMING THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A BUSINESS CASE FOR PROGRAM ACCELERATION, 7—11, p. 3. Savings: Our study estimated annual savings to include 3 billion gallons of fuel, elimination of 29 million metric tons of carbon emissions and reduction of 4 million hours of delay. These savings amounts to $29 billion of net benefits in the U.S. alone each year and $135 billion globally, in the first year of full system deployment in 2026. These significant fuel savings, lower carbon emissions, time saved and economic benefit should result from the transition to advanced satellite based PNT technologies as well as new ATC procedures. This transition should help in overcoming most weather induced and ATC based delays, allowing for direct flight paths and closely spaced aircraft operations.

2. NextGen will cut emissions, offers other environmental benefits Michael Huerta, Deputy Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. NextGen Benefits: Environmental As with safety, our work to enhance aviation's influence on the environment also benefits - and is a beneficiary of - NextGen. The operational improvements that reduce noise, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse-gas emissions from aircraft are the tip of the FAA's environmental iceberg. Equally important are the other four-fifths of the agency's environmental approach - aircraft and engine technology advances, sustainable fuels, policy initiatives and advances in science and modeling. Environmental benefits of operational improvements are simple and direct. When we improve efficiency in the NAS, most of the time we save time and fuel. Burning less fuel produces less carbon dioxide and other harmful emissions. Some of our NextGen improvements, notably landing approaches in which aircraft spend less time maintaining level flight and thus can operate with engines at idle, reduce ground noise too. But operational benefits go only so far; their net system-wide effect can be offset by growth of the aviation system.

3. Government action is necessary to green aviation Sam Capoccitti, Anshuman Khare, Athabasca University and Udo Mildenberger, IPE Media University, “Aviation Industry – Mitigating Climate Change Impacts through Technology and Policy,” JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT & INNOATION v. 5 n. 2, 2010, doi: 10.4067/S0718-27242010000200006. Evidence that firms have become environmentally conscious either 'voluntary' (as a result of changes in corporate values), or because market forces have encouraged them, is in fact rather thin. The vast majority of new environmental activities have been explicitly developed as a result of the statutory regulation of markets or of political pressure from environmentalists (Jacobs, 1993). Due to the enormity of the challenge it must be reiterated that governments' interaction in this challenge is paramount. Until someone steps up and enforces rules that govern the green practices of the entire aviation industry, the industry will (unfortunately) muddle along with short term measures for reducing its environmental footprint.

4. Acceleration will substantially decrease emissions, air pollution NEXA Advisors, NEXTGEN EQUIPAGE FUND: JOB CREATION, ECONOMIC BENEFITS, AND CONTRIBUTION TO FEDERAL REVENUES, 4—11, p. 12. In 2008 GAO advocated accelerated deployment of NextGen to realize environmental benefits. More efficient operations will lower unit emissions per passenger through lower fuel burn per passenger. Aviation emissions, like other combustible emissions, include pollutants that affect public health. The FAA estimates that NextGen could reduce aircraft greenhouse emissions by as much as 12 percent, which is equivalent to removing 2.2 million cars from the roads. Additionally, improved air transportation will reduce the number of passengers diverted to their cars on the U.S. roadways and thereby reduce air pollution from cars and reduce congestion on the highways.

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Harms: Warming—NextGen Solves [cont’d]

5. NextGen implementation is key to cutting emissions TK Kallenbach, Vice President, Honeywell, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 3—25—09, lexis. NextGen Will Have a Positive Environmental Impact Our aging air traffic system also has a significant impact on energy use and the environment. The aviation industry continues to make great strides in improving the efficiency of aircraft operations. Over the past 30 years, airlines have more than doubled their average fuel economy n4. The industry continues to invest in more efficient airframes, engines, and systems, with a laser focus on reducing operating costs and achieving carbon-neutral industry growth. At the same time, the air traffic system in which we are required to operate creates inefficiencies that are estimated to be between 10 and 15 percent. For the airlines alone, this inefficiency resulted in more than 10 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emitted unnecessarily in 2008. This is equivalent to the annual emissions from the electrical use of more than 1.2 million U.S. households. This does not have to be the case; these emissions are preventable.

6. NextGen will cut aviation greenhouse gas emissions

Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 5—6—08, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08706t.pdf, accessed 4-9-12. Aviation contributes a modest but growing proportion of total U.S. emissions, and these emissions contribute to adverse health and environmental effects. Aircraft and airport operations, including those of service and passenger vehicles, emit ozone and other substances that contribute to local air pollution, as well as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. EPA estimates that aviation emissions account for less than 1 percent of local air pollution nationwide and about 2.7 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but these emissions are expected to grow as air traffic increases. Two key federal efforts, if implemented effectively, can help to reduce aviation emissions—NextGen initiatives in the near term and research and development over the longer term. For example, NextGen technologies and procedures, such as satellite-based navigation systems, should allow for more direct routing, which could improve fuel efficiency and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Federal research and development efforts—led by FAA and NASA in collaboration with industry and academia—have achieved significant reductions in aircraft emissions through improved aircraft and engine technologies, and federal officials and aviation experts agree that such efforts are the most effective means of achieving further reductions in the longer term. Federal R&D on aviation emissions also focuses on improving the scientific understanding of aviation emissions and developing lower-emitting aviation fuels. Next steps in reducing aviation emissions include managing NextGen initiatives efficiently; deploying NextGen technologies and procedures as soon as practicable to realize their benefits, including lower emissions levels; and managing a decline in R&D funding, in part, by setting priorities for R&D on NextGen and emissions-reduction technologies. Challenges in reducing aviation emissions include designing aircraft that can simultaneously reduce noise and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases; encouraging financially stressed airlines to purchase more fuel-efficient aircraft and emissions-reduction technologies; addressing the impact on airport expansion of more stringent EPA air quality standards and growing public concerns about the effects of aviation emissions; and responding to proposed domestic and international measures for reducing greenhouse gases that could affect the financial solvency and competitiveness of U.S. airlines.

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Harms: Warming—NextGen Solves [cont’d]

7. NextGen will improve efficiency, decreasing emissions

Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 5—6—08, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08706t.pdf, accessed 4-9-12. Technologies and procedures that are being developed as part of NextGen to improve the efficiency of flight operations can also reduce aircraft emissions. According to FAA, the implementation of NextGen could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from aircraft by up to 12 percent. One NextGen technology, considered a centerpiece of NextGen, is the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) satellite aircraft navigation system. ADS-B is designed, along with other navigation technologies, to enable more precise control of aircraft during en route flight, approach, and descent. ADS-B will allow for closer and safer separations between aircraft and more direct routing, which will improve fuel efficiency and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This improved control will also facilitate the use of air traffic control procedures that will reduce communities’ exposure to aviation emissions and noise. One such procedure, Continuous Descent Arrivals (CDA), allows aircraft to remain at cruise altitudes longer as they approach destination airports, use lower power levels, and thereby lower emissions and noise during landings. Figure 3 shows how CDA compares with the current step-down approach to landing, in which aircraft make alternate short descents and forward thrusts, which produce more emissions and noise than continuous descents. A limited number of airports have already incorporated CDA into their operations. For example, according to officials from Los Angeles International Airport, nearly 25 percent of landings at their airport use CDA procedures in one of the airport’s standard terminal approaches. In addition, United Parcel Service plans to begin using a nighttime CDA procedure, designed and tested at the Louisville International Airport, for its hub operations.

8. NextGen implementation will significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. Environmental Benefits. More efficient operations also will use less fuel, increasing aircraft fuel efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas and other emissions. It has been estimated that full implementation of NextGen will reduce emissions by 10-15 percent. Early implementation of certain NextGen elements and other airline initiatives are providing some benefit toward those totals already, but full implementation is needed. Improved fuel efficiency also will reduce operating costs and contribute to improved financial conditions that, like the productivity improvements discussed above, will benefit the public and employees and put the airlines in a better position to continue to invest in new aircraft, alternative fuels and other operational improvements that bring environmental improvements.

9. Improved air traffic management cuts emissions Sam Capoccitti, Anshuman Khare, Athabasca University and Udo Mildenberger, IPE Media University, “Aviation Industry – Mitigating Climate Change Impacts through Technology and Policy,” JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT & INNOATION v. 5 n. 2, 2010, doi: 10.4067/S0718-27242010000200006. One possible contributor to greater aircraft efficiency is improved air traffic management. According to the IATA (2007), there is a 12% inefficiency in global air traffic management which could largely be addressed by three 'mega-projects': a Single Sky for Europe, an efficient air traffic system for the Pearl River Delta in China and a next generation air traffic system in the United States. However, there has not been much progress on these initiatives much to the disappointment of IATA and its leadership. Scientists and aviation experts worldwide are investigating improved air traffic management, lower flight speeds, reducing idling and other efficiencies, searching for areas of potential emissions reductions.

10.NextGen improves fuel efficiency, cutting costs, emissions Nicholas Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. Environmental Benefits. More efficient operations also will use less fuel, increasing aircraft fuel efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas and other emissions. Full implementation of NextGen is projected to reduce emissions by as much as12 percent. Early implementation of certain NextGen elements and other airline initiatives are providing some benefits already, but full implementation is needed. Improved fuel efficiency also will reduce operating costs and contribute to improved financial conditions that, like the productivity improvements discussed above, will benefit the public and employees and the airlines in a better position to continue to invest in new aircraft, alternative fuels and other operational improvements that bring environmental improvements.

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Harms: Warming—Warming Real

1. Warming is real and human-caused

James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, “Game Over for the Climate,” NEW YORK TIMES, 5—9—12, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/10/opinion/game-over-for-the-climate.html, accessed 6-10-12. If this sounds apocalyptic, it is. This is why we need to reduce emissions dramatically. President Obama has the power not only to deny tar sands oil additional access to Gulf Coast refining, which Canada desires in part for export markets, but also to encourage economic incentives to leave tar sands and other dirty fuels in the ground. The global warming signal is now louder than the noise of random weather, as I predicted would happen by now in the journal Science in 1981. Extremely hot summers have increased noticeably. We can say with high confidence that the recent heat waves in Texas and Russia, and the one in Europe in 2003, which killed tens of thousands, were not natural events — they were caused by human-induced climate change. We have known since the 1800s that carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere. The right amount keeps the climate conducive to human life. But add too much, as we are doing now, and temperatures will inevitably rise too high. This is not the result of natural variability, as some argue. The earth is currently in the part of its long-term orbit cycle where temperatures would normally be cooling. But they are rising — and it’s because we are forcing them higher with fossil fuel emissions. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 280 parts per million to 393 p.p.m. over the last 150 years. The tar sands contain enough carbon — 240 gigatons — to add 120 p.p.m. Tar shale, a close cousin of tar sands found mainly in the United States, contains at least an additional 300 gigatons of carbon. If we turn to these dirtiest of fuels, instead of finding ways to phase out our addiction to fossil fuels, there is no hope of keeping carbon concentrations below 500 p.p.m. — a level that would, as earth’s history shows, leave our children a climate system that is out of their control.

2. Warming is real and human-caused—multiple indicators prove

Dr. Peter H. Gleick, Director, Pacific Institute, “Not Going Away: America’s Energy Security, Jobs and Climate Challenges,” Testimony before the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming,” 12-1-10, www.pacinst.org/publications/testimony/gleick_testimony_climate_strategies.pdf, accessed 12-2-11. 1. The science of climate change is clear and convincing that climate change is happening, happening rapidly, and happening because of human activities. Scientific conclusions derive from an understanding of basic laws supported by laboratory experiments, observations of nature, and mathematical and computer modeling. Based on these lines of evidence, the science of climate change is compelling and strong, and has been for over two decades. That science tells us that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities not only will change the climate, but are already changing the climate. The evidence is now incontrovertible, even if a small minority cannot accept it. Like all human beings, scientists make mistakes, but the scientific process is designed to find and correct them. This process is inherently adversarial — scientists build reputations and gain recognition not only for supporting conventional wisdom, but even more so for demonstrating that the scientific consensus is wrong and that there is a better explanation. That’s what Galileo, Pasteur, Darwin, and Einstein did. But no one who argues against the science of climate change has ever provided an alternative scientific theory that adequately satisfies the observable evidence or conforms to our understanding of physics, chemistry, and climate dynamics. The science tells us – and has been telling us for over two decades – that: • The planet is warming due to increased concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. • Most of the increase in the concentration of these gases over the last century is due to human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. • Natural causes always play a role in changing Earth’s climate, but are now being overwhelmed by human-induced changes. • Warming the planet will cause many other climatic patterns to change at speeds unprecedented in modern times, including increasing rates of sea-level rise and alterations in the hydrologic cycle. Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide are making the oceans more acidic. And many other changes are seen to be happening. • The combination of these complex climate changes threatens coastal communities and cities, human health, our food and water supplies, marine and freshwater ecosystems, forests, high mountain environments, and far more.

3. Every major organization agrees that warming is real

Dr. Peter H. Gleick, Director, Pacific Institute, “Not Going Away: America’s Energy Security, Jobs and Climate Challenges,” Testimony before the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming,” 12-1-10, www.pacinst.org/publications/testimony/gleick_testimony_climate_strategies.pdf, accessed 12-2-11. 3. Every major international scientific organization working in the areas of geophysics, climate, geology, biology, chemistry, physics, ecology, atmospheric sciences, and meteorology agrees that humans are changing the climate. This includes every single National Academy of Sciences, including of course, the US NAS. (See the attached list.) Conversely, no scientific body of national or international standing rejects the findings of human-induced effects on global warming. Ignoring the massive weight of this consensus is irresponsible.

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Aerospace Add-On: 2AC

A. Aerospace industry is key to overall leadership, military strength

David Thompson, President, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Testimony before the House Science and Technology Committee, 12—10—09, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-111hhrg54449/html/CHRG-111hhrg54449.htm, accessed 12-12-11. Aerospace systems are of considerable importance to U.S. national security, economic prosperity, technological vitality, and global leadership. Aeronautical and space systems protect our citizens, armed forces, and allies abroad. They connect the fartherest corners of the world with safe and efficient air transportation and satellite communications, and they mentor the earth, explore the solar system and study the wider universe. The U.S. aerospace sector also contributes in major ways to America's economic output and high technology employment. Aerospace research and development and manufacturing companies generated approximately $250 billion in sales in 2008 or nearly 1.75 percent of our country's Gross National Product. They currently employ about 650,000 people throughout our country. U.S. Government agencies and departments engaged in aerospace research and operations add another 125,000 employees to this sector's workforce, bringing the total to over 775,000 people. Included in this number are more than 200,000 engineers and scientists, one of the largest concentrations of technical brain power on earth.

B. Leadership prevents nuclear war, extinction Thomas P.M. Barnett, U.S. Naval War College, "The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., Globalization, at Crossroads," WORLD POLITICS REVIEW, 3--7--11, Ebsco. It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of arguably the greatest structural change in the global order yet endured, with this historical moment's most amazing feature being its relative and absolute lack of mass violence. That is something to consider when Americans contemplate military intervention in Libya, because if we do take the step to prevent larger-scale killing by engaging in some killing of our own, we will not be adding to some fantastically imagined global death count stemming from the ongoing "megalomania" and "evil" of American "empire." We'll be engaging in the same sort of system-administering activity that has marked our stunningly successful stewardship of global order since World War II. Let me be more blunt: As the guardian of globalization, the U.S. military has been the greatest force for peace the world has ever known. Had America been removed from the global dynamics that governed the 20th century, the mass murder never would have ended. Indeed, it's entirely conceivable there would now be no identifiable human civilization left, once nuclear weapons entered the killing equation. But the world did not keep sliding down that path of perpetual war. Instead, America stepped up and changed everything by ushering in our now-perpetual great-power peace. We introduced the international liberal trade order known as globalization and played loyal Leviathan over its spread. What resulted was the collapse of empires, an explosion of democracy, the persistent spread of human rights, the liberation of women, the doubling of life expectancy, a roughly 10-fold increase in adjusted global GDP and a profound and persistent reduction in battle deaths from state-based conflicts. That is what American "hubris" actually delivered. Please remember that the next time some TV pundit sells you the image of "unbridled" American military power as the cause of global disorder instead of its cure. With self-deprecation bordering on self-loathing, we now imagine a post-American world that is anything but. Just watch who scatters and who steps up as the Facebook revolutions erupt across the Arab world. While we might imagine ourselves the status quo power, we remain the world's most vigorously revisionist force. As for the sheer "evil" that is our military-industrial complex, again, let's examine what the world looked like before that establishment reared its ugly head. The last great period of global structural change was the first half of the 20th century, a period that saw a death toll of about 100 million across two world wars. That comes to an average of 2 million deaths a year in a world of approximately 2 billion souls. Today, with far more comprehensive worldwide reporting, researchers report an average of less than 100,000 battle deaths annually in a world fast approaching 7 billion people. Though admittedly crude, these calculations suggest a 90 percent absolute drop and a 99 percent relative drop in deaths due to war. We are clearly headed for a world order characterized by multipolarity, something the American-birthed system was designed to both encourage and accommodate. But given how things turned out the last time we collectively faced such a fluid structure, we would do well to keep U.S. power, in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. To continue the historical survey, after salvaging Western Europe from its half-century of civil war, the U.S. emerged as the progenitor of a new, far more just form of globalization -- one based on actual free trade rather than colonialism. America then successfully replicated globalization further in East Asia over the second half of the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

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Aerospace Add-On: Extensions

1. Airpower benefits from NextGen Daniel Bourgeois, M.S., Science, Technology and Public Policy, “The Next Generation Air Transportation System: An Answer to Solve Airport Efficiency?” M.S. Thesis Submitted to the Public Policy Program, Rochester Institute of Technology, 8—10, p. 59. Private industry is not the only users of the NAS. The government in many forms uses the infrastructure for its own benefit, purposes, or operations. By all means the NextGen system will be a public good that will be provided by the government because the private actors cannot work out the problems of congestion themselves. But, the government in the form of the military stands as a beneficiary as well in the matter of national security.

2. NextGen is key to our industrial leadership, manufacturing base

National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), EXPEDITING AIR TRAFFIC MODERNIZATION AND ACCELERATING NEXTGEN, 2009, http://www.nam.org/~/media/9D17E31A28104FE69FBBE244FEEB59E9/NextGen_to_NowGen.pdf, accessed 12-12-11. The nation’s air transportation system is a unique public-private system that requires significant investment and leadership from both public and private sources to deliver benefits to the traveling public and other users of the system. The U.S. competitive position in the aviation sector is being challenged by the European Union (E.U.) and the U.S. civil aerospace industry will be outpaced if we do not consider the transition to NextGen as a serious national objective. U.S. passenger traffic will more than double over the next 20 years and almost triple globally. Other nations with growing air traffic, like China and India, are looking to the U.S. or the E.U. to guide the evolution of their air transportation systems. If the U.S. is not the perceived leader in deploying this technology, opportunities for U.S. manufacturers and workers will be lost forever. Supporting a High-Tech Transformation NextGen efforts will employ thousands of engineers, software developers and other high-tech workers to support this transition to a modernized aviation infrastructure where pilots and controllers will benefit from advanced technology to help them do their jobs with decreased stress and increased safety.

3. Strong aerospace sector is key to our military effectiveness

Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), “Aerospace and Defense: Second to None,” 2011, www.nationalaerospaceweek.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/whitepaper.pdf, accessed 4-23-12. The beginning of a new decade presents the defense industry with challenges that aren’t new, but are becoming more urgent. Developing a national strategy to ensure a robust industrial base and modernizing our military hardware must become front-burner priorities. The health of the industrial base is at the heart of our ability to supply our nation with the weapons systems it requires. As the Aerospace Industries Association wrote in a landmark study on the industrial base in 2009: “Military technologies used to be much more closely related to civilian technologies. They even used common production processes. But because DOD is today the sole customer for industry’s most advanced capabilities, the defense industrial base is increasingly specialized and separate from the general manufacturing and technology sectors. That means even a healthy general economy will not necessarily help underwrite the industrial capabilities DOD most needs.” A huge step forward was made in 2010 when the industrial base was included in the Quadrennial Defense Review as a factor to be considered in its long-term planning. We’re optimistic that the next step — inclusion of industrial base considerations in program plans and policy — will be executed as directed by the QDR — ensuring that it becomes incorporated into long-range defense plans. However, we remain concerned about the fragility of the supplier base. With another round of acquisitions and consolidations imminent along with a projected decline in defense spending, the supplier base remains particularly vulnerable. These small businesses are critical to the primes and to the government. They face multiple challenges overcoming barriers to federal contracting and once they leave the contracting base, they and their unique skills cannot be recovered.

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Aerospace Add-On: Extensions [cont’d]

4. Plan is key to ensuring our global leadership in the aerospace industry

Marion C. Blakey, President and CEO, Aerospace Industries Association, “The Future of NextGen,” THE HILL, Congress Blog, 2—15—11, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-a-budget/144119-the-future-of-nextgen, accessed 4-23-12. The House and Senate have each declared passage of a new FAA Authorization bill a top legislative priority, very welcome news after more than three years of short-term extensions. Air transportation is a proven economic engine; passage of this bill is an investment in our nation’s economic recovery. The U.S. air transportation system has been the world’s gold standard for more than half a century. But to remain so, we need to bring our system into the 21st Century. Air service demand will return to pre-recession levels, but along with the return of that demand will come the return of gridlock—you can count on it. The best means of addressing the gridlock to come is acceleration of the full deployment and implementation the Next Generation Air Transportation System. That makes funding NextGen a government investment, not government spending. Even in these tough economic times, it makes more sense to accelerate NextGen than slow it down. Cutting NextGen will ultimately cost the government and our economy much more than it will save. One of the larger challenges facing our ability to realize NextGen’s enormous benefits is the issue of establishing a sound business case for equipping civil aircraft with upgraded avionics systems. Quite frankly, without equipage there is no NextGen. Innovative and careful structuring of government support for equipage can help resolve the obstacles to full implementation of NextGen. However, with the nation’s need to address the growing federal deficit, it is important also to look at ways to leverage the available private-sector capital markets. To this end, AIA recommends language in the FAA Reauthorization bill that encourages funding equipage with the participation of private-sector investment capital. FAA should have the authority to enter into government-guaranteed loan arrangements that can be used in innovative ways to incentivize the retrofitting of commercial and general aviation aircraft with NextGen avionics equipment. Critical to leveraging available private-sector capital markets is reducing risk to stimulate investment. A key message from industry throughout the FAA Reauthorization deliberations is the need for government accountability for achieving progress. FAA must establish a set of progress metrics so that the administration, the Congress, industry stakeholders and the public can measure and track the operational improvement that is actually being achieved by the program. These metrics need to track performance outcomes, not just activity. Both industry and the regulators must be capable of determining whether efforts are actually improving safety, capacity and efficiency. A big part of NextGen are the thousands of new satellite-based procedures that allow more efficient takeoffs and landings. All these airspace procedures must be designed and implemented, and most will require an environmental assessment. The National Environmental Policy Act process can be extremely protracted and time-consuming. Given the volume of expected airspace redesigns and the immediate economic and environmental benefits their implementation will provide, AIA recommends including NextGen-related airspace redesigns in the Airport Streamlining Approval Process as defined in Section304 of Vision 100 and an FAA-EPA interagency review to produce a more streamlined process. With a streamlined NEPA process, new flight tracks and procedures will be implemented expeditiously. FAA estimates these satellite-guided procedures will be quieter, reduce delays and save fuel. By 2018, these procedures will save aircraft 1.4 billion gallons of fuel, which means they will emit 14 million fewer tons of CO2. To implement these procedures even quicker, AIA recommends the FAA certify third- party procedure development. Far more procedures could be put in place in less time and each would be checked and approved by FAA inspectors. The civil aviation industry is an economic engine that contributes positively to the U.S. trade balance, creates high paying jobs, keeps just-in-time business models viable and connects all Americans to friends, family and business opportunities. All of that economic activity is funneled through the nation’s air traffic system. Full NextGen deployment requires the production and installation of hundreds of thousands of high-tech avionics products assembled by skilled workers in U.S. factories and maintenance stations in every state. Lack of an authorization bill has kept NextGen and other critical programs on life support. It’s time to give FAA the tools to keep our nation the leader in civil aviation.

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Solvency: FAA Action Key

- NextGen is vital to the success of the airline industry—FAA leadership is key Thomas Hendricks, Vice President for Operations and Safety, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. NextGen is a vital component to the future success of the airline industry and its employees, and an important means of reducing flight delays and the industry's carbon footprint. The swift implementation of NextGen must be a national priority. Fortunately, many of the technological and procedural advancements listed above are already available and a sizable portion of today's commercial aircraft is equipped to use them. FAA leadership is the difference between success and failure in realizing the benefits of NextGen for all stakeholders. Accelerating the deployment of NextGen technologies; designing new routes; and implementing new airspace and procedures will produce material improvements in the operational performance and fuel efficiency of aircraft using those procedures.

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Solvency: Federal Action Key

1. Only the federal government has the reach to do the plan Daniel Bourgeois, M.S., Science, Technology and Public Policy, “The Next Generation Air Transportation System: An Answer to Solve Airport Efficiency?” M.S. Thesis Submitted to the Public Policy Program, Rochester Institute of Technology, 8—10, p. 61-62. You can see in this example how much is orchestrated in order to pull something like this off and how important it is that the government be watching the air space as a public good. No one entity could do this alone, it is only the reach of the Federal Government that could pull something like this together. Also we can get an idea of how much money is spent in conducting such an operation. But this is not the only way that the government is involved in the NAS. Listed here are additional examples of how the government controls the NAS. There are also sections of airspace denoted as National Security Areas. These are sections of air space that are established around areas requiring special security precautions. These are places like government or military instillations, large power plants, and/or ammunition stores. Pilots are required to avoid flying low in these areas to prevent an accidental crash. The restrictions for these sections of the air space are also provided in NOTAM’s (Administration, Federal Aviation. AIM 2010 3-5-7).

2. Federal action is key—multiple reasons Daniel Bourgeois, M.S., Science, Technology and Public Policy, “The Next Generation Air Transportation System: An Answer to Solve Airport Efficiency?” M.S. Thesis Submitted to the Public Policy Program, Rochester Institute of Technology, 8—10, p. 9. The Federal Government needs to become involved in the case of implementation of the NextGen system in several ways. First, because if left completely left alone markets only work on market forces. Supply, demand, and the need to increase profits and reduce costs become the most important factors governing CEO’s decisions. Throughout this process of decision making ethics is often lost of foregone in order to expand or continue the status quo. To best show how this mind set was in action in the air transportation system I will show the story of the Comet, the world’s first jet powered airliner. Second, the amount of funding that is needed to implement such a system is not able to be paid by even the largest US companies. The top three, Wal-Mart, Exxon Mobil, and, Chevron combine total profits do not amount to the total price tag of NextGen. Third, fixing the National Aerospace System (NAS) will not only benefit the aviation industry. Fixing this will have spillover effects, both good and bad, onto other industries and boundaries as well. Fourth, civilians are not the only users of the NAS. The government in the form of the military also uses the system for operations. The government is also responsible for setting the laws and regulations that govern how traffic and airspace is used. Fifth, having a standard way of operation is essential for efficient flying so that one aircraft is not given precedence over another solely on business relations.

3. Government needs to act—multiple reasons Daniel Bourgeois, M.S., Science, Technology and Public Policy, “The Next Generation Air Transportation System: An Answer to Solve Airport Efficiency?” M.S. Thesis Submitted to the Public Policy Program, Rochester Institute of Technology, 8—10, p. 59. In this case the government was to intervene in a very drastic way. The NextGen policy totally restructures the National Airspace System (NAS) which is not conventional in the other forms of government intervention. It can be argued that there are three other factors that warrant government participation in the NAS to warrant implementation NextGen through government intervention. First, the government in the form of military aviation, uses the current system so they have a vested interest to update it. Second, it is too costly, and will take too long to implement, for one single firm to conquer on its own. Third is the necessity of standardization among all users.

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Solvency: Investment Key

1. Lack of investment will impose delays, increase costs Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, and Gines de Rus “Introduction,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 2. At the same time, the continuing failure of policymakers to implement efficient pricing of and investment in airports and air traffic control has generated significant costs in those parts of the world where air transportation is heavily used and means that travelers and carriers can expect to incur longer and more irritating delays to prevent safety from deteriorating. An additional concern is that the benefits of global liberalization of airline ownership and economic regulation will not be fully realized if airline entry at major airports is impeded by a lack of available gates and takeoff and landing times. For example, in its recent negotiations with the European Union to liberalize the trans-Atlantic airline market, the U.S. government raised concerns about capacity constraints at the EU’s major hub airports.

2. Should invest in NextGen—will produce significant economic returns Captain Moak, President, Air Line Pilots Association International, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. As the budget debate rages in Washington, everyone, from our President to the most liberal and conservative members of Congress, should agree that we need to cut programs that are not providing an acceptable return on our investment and support the ones that bring back more than we put in--those that grow the economy and create jobs. These are decisions that businessmen and women make in companies large and small every day. It's fundamental to long-term success. This basic measure of smart business spending--return on investment--should be the same in government and industry. The challenge often lies in determining where the waste is and what will bring a good return. There is no serious disagreement on the smart investment in NextGen--it's plain that funding NextGen will bring enormous returns to the U.S. economy for years to come and equally clear that funding should commence immediately. We need to get our economy moving again. The civil aviation industry has a critical role to play. Civil aviation, directly and indirectly, contributes more than $1.3 trillion to the U.S. economy each year--or 5.2 percent of gross domestic product. The value of air travel--leisure and business--is a critical pillar of the economy. Hotels and resorts, conference centers, rental car companies, tourist attractions, and just-in-time deliveries are not viable without reliable, efficient, affordable air travel. In today's economy--and even more so in tomorrow's--millions of jobs depend on keeping the air travel system healthy. NextGen will increase capacity and efficiency while generating growth in our nation's airlines, aviation companies, and suppliers. This will lead to job growth at a time when our nation needs it the most.

3. Additional investment will decrease delays Steven A. Morrison, Professor, Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “The Effect of FAA Expenditures on Air Travel Delays,” JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS v. 63, 2008, p. 677. The introduction of air traffic control over US skies more than 50 years ago has clearly made flying safer and reduced travel delays. But given that expenditures on the system are the primary tool that the FAA has used to combat congestion, it is essential for FAA spending to be efficient. We have found that the FAA could produce substantial benefits in travel delay savings to airport users by increasing the overall level of spending on towers and TRACONs and by optimizing expenditures across airports to minimize total airport costs. Unfortunately, when travel delays have reached dramatic proportions, policymakers have not considered whether ATC spending is as efficient as possible. Instead, they have instituted arbitrary controls such as take off and landing slots and have allowed carriers to coordinate their schedules. Economists have strongly made the case that by ignoring economic incentives to reduce delay, Congress and the FAA have failed to provide a long-term solution to congestion. By failing to optimize ATC expenditures, Congress and the FAA have compromised their short-term solution to congestion.

4. Need to substantially increase investment to meet airport needs Donna Cooper, senior fellow, Center for American Progress, MEETING THE INFRASTRUCTURE IMPERATIVE, 2--12, p. 37-38. Through the Federal Aviation Administration’s Airport and Airway Trust Fund, the federal government invested $15.5 billion in airport improvements in FY 2010. Trust revenues come from a basket of federal taxes and fees levied on passenger and airlines. In 2010, $5.3 billion in supplemental general fund revenues were added to the Trust Fund in order to meet congressionally authorized expenditures of $15.5 billion. That’s not enough. The FAA estimates that the capital funding distributed via the Airport Improvement Fund needs to grow by $7 billion on top of the $15 billion that was appropriated for 2010 for a total of $21.5 billion annually for at least the next five years.

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Solvency: Investment Key [cont’d]

5. Our aviation infrastructure is highly deficient—need additional investment

Greg Principato, President, ACI-NA, “U.S. Infrastructure Challenges,” AIRPORT IMPROVEMENT MAGAZINE, 10—11, http://www.airportimprovement.com/content/story_result.php?article=00320, accessed 4-26-12. here are few issues on which Democrats and Republicans agree in these politically charged times, but the need to improve our infrastructure seems to be one of them. Airport projects are proven job-creators that increase the safety and security of the aviation system. They also improve the efficiency of air travel and generally make it a better experience for passengers. The 2011 Capital Needs Survey by Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA) documented $80.1 billion in needed capital investment for U.S. airports from 2011 to 2015. That’s about $16 billion per year. And we’re not alone in highlighting the deficiencies of our aviation system. Last year, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave aviation a “D” on its Infrastructure Report Card. The organization found a $40.7 billion shortfall in aviation infrastructure funds over the next five years and noted: “Travelers are faced with increasing delays and inadequate conditions as a result of the long overdue need to modernize the outdated air traffic control system and the failure to enact a federal aviation program.”

6. Investment has a large multiplier effort--$5 in returns for every dollar spent Daniel Bourgeois, M.S., Science, Technology and Public Policy, “The Next Generation Air Transportation System: An Answer to Solve Airport Efficiency?” M.S. Thesis Submitted to the Public Policy Program, Rochester Institute of Technology, 8—10, p. 58-59. Additionally, investments in aviation infrastructure produce positive returns. For every dollar invested in airport and air traffic system improvements, up to $5 in benefits returns to the U.S. economy. Finally, the cost of allowing our aviation system capacity to continually fail to meet the systems demands far outweighs the costs of transforming the system. Estimates of the costs of flight delays and cancellations to our economy over the next 10 years range from $140-$170 billion (White Paper on Ensuring JPDO Success). If the main goal of a business is to obtain the highest profit possible then why aren’t proactive steps taken to preventing such profit consuming problems? Why is it the job of government to come in and take control of the situation when there is a market failure? The conclusion here is that government intervention in aviation markets is warranted under circumstances where markets fail to use the system efficiently. And as we have seen there are several market failures, in the form of externalities that are not being addressed. Once these failures have been recognized, policy officials may have a range of choices and approaches on how to address the issue through government intervention (Waves, n.d). Common options include regulation: tax incentives; subsidies; government provision of information; or even establishment of standards (Bardach, 2004).

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Solvency: NextGen Delay Bad

1. Rollout delays for current components increase costs, decrease overall effectiveness given the interdependent nature of the technologies

Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, “Next Generation Air Transportation System: FAA Has Made Some Progress in Implementation, but Delays Threaten to Impact Costs and Benefits,” Government Accountability Office, GAO-12-141T, 10—5—11, p. 5. Some key acquisitions may soon encounter delays, which can increase overall acquisition costs, as well as costs to maintain current systems. For example, delays in implementing the ERAM program is projected to increase costs by $330 million, as well as an estimated $7 to $10 million per month in additional costs to continue maintaining the system that ERAM was meant to replace. Moreover, due to the integrated nature of NextGen, many of its component systems are mutually dependent on one or more other systems. For example, ERAM is critical to the delivery of ADS-B because ADS-B requires the use of some ERAM functions. ERAM is also pivotal to the on-time implementation of two other key NextGen acquisitions—Data Communications and SWIM. In part due to ERAM’s delay, FAA pushed the Data Communications program’s start date from September 2011 to February 2012, plans to revise the original SWIM-segment 1 cost and schedule plan, and delayed the SWIM-segment 2 start date from 2010 to December 2012. The long-term result of this decision is not yet known but it could delay certain SWIM capabilities and hinder the progress of other capabilities that depend, in turn, on the system integration that SWIM is intended to provide. Thus, looking more broadly, the implementation of NextGen—both in the midterm (through 2018) and in the long term (beyond 2018)—will be affected by how well FAA manages program interdependencies.

2. Rollout delay undermines efforts to harmonize control with Europe, limiting program benefits and deterring tech adoption

Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, “Next Generation Air Transportation System: FAA Has Made Some Progress in Implementation, but Delays Threaten to Impact Costs and Benefits,” Government Accountability Office, GAO-12-141T, 10—5—11, p. 7. To maintain credibility with aircraft operators that NextGen will be implemented, FAA must deliver systems and capabilities on time so that operators have incentives to invest in the avionics that will enable NextGen to operate as planned. As we have previously reported, a past FAA program’s cancellation contributed to skepticism about FAA’s commitment to follow through with its plans. That industry skepticism, which we have found lingers today, could delay the time when significant NextGen benefits—such as increased capacity and more direct, fuel-saving routing—are realized. A number of NextGen benefits depend upon having a critical mass of properly equipped aircraft. Reaching that critical mass is a significant challenge because the first aircraft operators to equip will not obtain a return on their investment until many other operators also equip.

3. Keeping to schedule is vital to NextGen effectiveness—ensures industry compliance Dr. Gerald L. Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues, “Air Traffic Control Modernization: Management Challenges Associated with Program Costs and Schedules Could Hinder NextGen Implementation,” Government Accountability Office, GAO-12-223, 2—12, p. 11. The success of a program also depends in part on having an integrated and reliable schedule, which defines, among other things, when work activities will occur, how long they will take, and how they are related to one another. As such, the program schedule not only provides a road map for systematic program execution, but also provides the means by which to gauge progress, identify and address potential problems, and promote accountability. Accordingly, a schedule helps ensure that all stakeholders understand both the dates for major milestones and the activities that drive the schedule. If changes occur within a program, the schedule helps decision makers analyze how those changes affect the program. We have previously identified nine best practices that help ensure a reliable program schedule (these best practices are discussed later in this report). The reliability of the schedule will determine the credibility of the program’s forecasted dates, which are used for decision making. FAA is currently developing an integrated master schedule17 for the NextGen initiative that will be built in part on individual program schedules. The NextGen integrated master schedule is intended to be a comprehensive framework to support planned and actual work, providing decision makers with the information needed to manage the overall effort effectively.

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Solvency: NextGen Key

1. NextGen is key to the effectiveness of our air traffic system, survival of the vital aviation industry

Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), “Aerospace and Defense: Second to None,” 2011, www.nationalaerospaceweek.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/whitepaper.pdf, accessed 4-23-12. Civil aviation is an economic engine directly and indirectly contributing more than $1.3 trillion — or 5.6 percent of gross domestic product — to the U.S. economy. It supports nearly 11 million jobs with a payroll of $369 billion. Civil aviation contributes positively to the U.S. trade balance, creates high paying jobs, keeps just-in-time business models viable and connects all Americans to friends, family and business opportunities. All of that economic activity passes through the nation’s air traffic system. As long as the system can accommodate the rising demand for air travel and just-in-time express delivery, the growth of jobs and economic activity associated with civil aviation will continue. Our current system is safe, but antiquated and highly inefficient. We need to replace our 1960s-era air traffic control technology with a much more accurate and efficient 21st century satellite-based Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). NextGen is essential to helping airlines return to profitability. It is critical for reducing fuel consumption and airplane emissions. Without NextGen, our national airspace will remain cluttered and inefficient and undermine the economic benefits of America’s commercial aviation industry.

2. NextGen is the single best thing we can do to improve system capacity Daniel Bourgeois, M.S., Science, Technology and Public Policy, “The Next Generation Air Transportation System: An Answer to Solve Airport Efficiency?” M.S. Thesis Submitted to the Public Policy Program, Rochester Institute of Technology, 8—10, p. 7. Despite the current economic downturn and all of the current advances, delays repeatedly impact passenger travel and the forecasts of future demand remain high. New aviation modes are about to take flight, bringing even greater complexity to air operations. Though staffed by a capable, dedicated workforce, our current air traffic control system is not scalable or flexible to keep up with future demand. In addition to improving efficiency and creating additional capacity, NextGen is also needed to provide corresponding enhancements to safety and environmental performance. Pilots from my senior project concurred that NextGen will be the greatest change to happen to the flying community since the invention of the airplane itself. The main argument that the pilots pointed out is that even though NextGen is supposed to be able to increase the air systems ability to hold aircraft it seems like there is nothing being done to address the fact that airports are working at maximum capacity and they will not be able to increase their capability of accepting and releasing flights.

3. NextGen implementation is key to solving gridlock in the air

Ashley Halsey, “Antidote to Air Gridlock May Not Get off Ground,” SEATTLE TIMES, 7—4—11, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boeingaerospace/2015510103_airtraffic05.html, accessed 4-23-12. Now the Obama administration has embarked on the single most ambitious and expensive national transportation project since completion of the interstate highway system, a program called the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NextGen concept sounds simple: Replace an air traffic system based on 60-year-old radar with a satellite-based, Global Positioning System (GPS) network that would be far more versatile and efficient. In reality it is an extraordinarily complex undertaking, threatened with delay by airline fears that the government won't deliver the system in time to justify their expenditures. NextGen demands the largest investment ever made in civil aviation: $29 billion to $42 billion for equipment, software and training by 2025. The cost would be shared by a federal government struggling with budget constraints and an airline industry that has been drained by years of recession and inflated fuel prices. NextGen is touted as the antidote to gridlock in the air travel system, which is forecast to be serving 1 billion passengers a year by 2021, up from 713 million last year. With GPS precision, planes would be able to travel packed skies in safety at much closer distances. They would be able to fly direct routes, instead of the current system, which relies heavily on flying to way points before turning to a final destination. Direct routing would save airlines billions in fuel costs and minimize pollution. It would permit far more precise choreography of planes at airports, reducing the amount of fuel wasted waiting for takeoff or burned because planes waiting to land are ordered into holding patterns. For passengers, NextGen would cut flight delays, eliminate time spent on the runway waiting to take off, shorten the flight time once airborne and bring fuel savings that promise to keep ticket prices lower. "It's going to be like pulling out of your garage and all the traffic lights are green," said Marion Blakey, president of the Aerospace Industries Association and former administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

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Solvency: NextGen Key [cont’d]

4. NextGen is key to meeting our future infrastructure needs TK Kallenbach, Vice President, Honeywell, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 3—25—09, lexis. NextGen is a Key Element of the U.S. Transportation Infrastructure There has been a great deal of discussion recently on the urgent need to revitalize our nation's infrastructure. Much of that attention has been focused on our roads and bridges, rail networks, and telecommunications - critical components, to be sure. Aviation's contribution to our infrastructure is just as important, however, and air traffic management is a foundational element of that infrastructure. Airports are the most visible component of the aviation infrastructure. Revitalization of airports via new or upgraded terminal buildings, taxiways, and runways provides tangible evidence of congestion relief. The rest of the infrastructure - the 'highways in the sky', with the 'on-ramps' and 'off-ramps' that connect our nation's airports - is less easily visualized and yet key to the efficient operation of the air transportation system. Adding 'lanes' to these 'highways' and more efficient 'on-ramps' and 'off-ramps' doesn't involve pouring concrete, but rather requires implementing advanced, yet existing, technologies, including: space-based navigation, digital communications, automation and advanced displays supporting air traffic controller and pilot decision-making. This virtual infrastructure, implemented via software and electronics instead of concrete and steel, demands equal attention as a national priority.

5. GPS navigation will revolutionize air travel—decreases delays, increases efficiency Steven A. Morrison, chair, Department of Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “Delayed! U.S. Aviation Infrastructure Policy at a Crossroads,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 15. Moreover, by the time the FAA’s upgrade is complete, the system will be approaching technological obsolescence. Air travel can become even safer and faster if air traffic control replaces its ground-based radar systems with more accurate and reliable satellite communications. The satellite-based system, known by the acronym ADS-B (automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast) would allow pilots and controllers to be cognizant of the planes in the vicinity as well as their speeds, headings, and flight numbers. Travel times would be reduced because pilots would be able to fly closer together and take the most direct routes to their destination using signals from global position satellites to navigate. Pilots would also be able to operate in cloudy weather much as they do on clear days. Radar is imprecise—it typically updates aircraft positions every 4.8 seconds, while ADS-B does it every second—and forces controllers to separate aircraft by several miles to avoid collisions. The FAA has recently proposed a rule for airlines to equip all aircraft operating in controlled airspace with ADS-B-compatible avionics by 2020.

6. Need to upgrade the air traffic control system Steven A. Morrison, chair, Department of Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “Delayed! U.S. Aviation Infrastructure Policy at a Crossroads,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 24. Today, the probability of dying in a commercial aviation crash is at an all-time low, following a dramatic improvement in safety during the past ten years.35 FAA expenditures on air traffic control deserve some credit for the nation’s excellent safety record.36 But the FAA’s inefficient pricing of and investment in the system and its slow adoption of the latest technology have exacerbated air travel delays. In addition, some observers in industry and academia caution that air transport safety could be threatened if the air traffic control system is not expeditiously upgraded so it can handle the expected growth in traffic over the next decade.

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Solvency: NextGen Key [cont’d]

7. The air traffic control system needs to be modernized now—consensus among all stakeholders Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. All sectors of the broader aviation industry - airports, airlines, business aviation, manufacturers, passengers and shippers - agree that the FAA ATC system is badly in need of modernization and that the FAA Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is needed now. The current ATC system has reached the limits of its capabilities, is expensive to maintain and is labor intensive to operate. In several areas of the country, most notably in the Northeast, the system is unable to provide the capacity needed to meet the demand for ATC services at peak periods and at times of severe weather conditions. With FAA forecasting significant long-term growth, it is critical that modernization initiatives be implemented as soon as possible. The current recession may delay that growth, but it will be only a short respite that we cannot afford to waste. Indeed, now is the right time to accelerate several key NextGen components to drive "NowGen," which will deliver many of NextGen's benefits much sooner.

8. NextGen will increase the efficiency and productivity of the entire aviation system Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. NextGen will provide several critical needs: * Efficiency and Productivity. NextGen will enable more efficient flying. Today’s ground radar system requires planes to fly over specific points on the ground to maintain radar and communications contact. Navigational aids, radar and controllers are all terrestrial. They are linked to form a complex network system that supports airways, through which aircraft fly. Today’s system also requires spacing to accommodate the time it takes for radar to detect objects. Consequently, aircraft fly indirect routings and aircraft spacing - required for safety - wastes capacity. Today’s ATC system cannot, and never will be able to, take full advantage of available technology or integrate and fully exploit emerging technology. The environmental and economic impact of today’s inefficient ATC system is illustrated below. The flight in this example burned an additional 1493 pounds of fuel (218 gallons), releasing an extra 4,560 pounds of carbon dioxide (CO2) and adding unnecessary cost when margins already are razor thin. In contrast to today’s ATC system, NextGen will enable: optimized, direct routings between airports; reduced aircraft spacing; continuous descent arrivals, precise arrival and departure routings (known as RNAV and RNP procedures), and closely spaced approaches on parallel runways in instrument flight rule conditions. These are just a few of the operational benefits of NextGen. These efficiency enhancements will drive significant improvements in productivity - both in terms of asset utilization and personnel. That, in turn, will reduce operating costs, which will help keep fares down and enable those savings to be plowed back into wages and benefits and operating capital. Improved ATC efficiency also will benefit private aircraft owners. Corporations use private aircraft with the expectation that such use is efficient. While we disagree with that proposition, ATC modernization will provide corporate aircraft owners the same kind of efficiency benefits that commercial airlines will enjoy if their aircraft are properly equipped. Even if they are not properly equipped, they still will enjoy a spinoff benefit simply from operating in the same airspace as more efficient commercial aircraft.

9. NextGen funding is key upgrading our aviation infrastructure, improving the overall economy Nicholas Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. There is widespread agreement that the existing air traffic control system cannot provide the capacity and efficiency needed to meet the public's demand for convenient air transportation. This is underscored by a recently released, FAA-commissioned study that estimated that flight delays in 2007 cost passengers, airlines and the economy $31 billion. More than half of that figure is attributable to costs to passengers. This is intolerable but it is only a foretaste of what continued reliance on an antiquated Air Traffic Control (ATC) system will exact. NextGen is the solution to this predicament. We must accelerate the introduction of this new system in order to unlock the benefits to our nation and the economy. NextGen, which will employ a number of new technologies in a satellite-based air traffic management system coupled with new operating policies and procedures that take advantage of these technologies, will provide tremendous improvements over the current system and will benefit all system users, the public in general and the U.S. economy. Benefits include improved operational efficiency, reduced fuel consumption and emissions, and lower operating costs for airlines.

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Solvency: Mechanism—Accelerated Deployment

1. Need to accelerate the deployment of NextGen—key to aviation sector, economy TK Kallenbach, Vice President, Honeywell, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 3—25—09, lexis. NextGen Must Be a National Priority We know that our nation's air traffic control system is incapable of meeting the growing demand for air transportation and is in need of a true transformation. Incremental change in today's world of satellites and computer power is simply unacceptable. Government and industry stakeholders have developed and demonstrated new operational capabilities, enabled by new technologies, that could keep airport and airspace capacity ahead of demand. Yet, as a nation, we have been unable to implement these changes fast enough to eliminate system inefficiencies and the resulting congestion and delays. None of us can sit on our hands and wait for someone to provide 'the answers', as it is incumbent on all of us to work together to transform our aviation system. Whatever the obstacle - process, laws, regulations, funding - each must be attacked immediately. This Subcommittee will confront this issue head on as you craft the next FAA authorization bill--and we urge you to develop proposals that will truly drive the kind of ATC system that we know can be built and installed today. Waiting until 2025, as some plans call for, is simply not acceptable to everyone who flies, and every person connected with the aviation industry. The benefits of change are clear - in terms of economic and environmental benefits and the impact on travelers. It is time that we make the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) a national priority and provide the necessary leadership, commitment, and resources to make it a reality.

2. FAA should accelerate the deployment of the most cost-effective parts of NextGen Thomas Hendricks, Vice President for Operations and Safety, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. However, we cannot wait for all of the pieces of NextGen to come together. We must get the most out of existing technology. This means that the FAA should focus resources on expediting introduction of the most cost-beneficial elements of NextGen that are available, most notably performance-based navigation procedures. These will pay immediate dividends for all stakeholders, including passengers and shippers, by increasing system capacity, reducing fuel burn and decreasing emissions. We strongly support section 213 of the FAA Reauthorization and Reform Act of 2011 (H.R. 658), which directs the FAA to expedite the deployment of PBN procedures, and focus deployment at the top 35 busiest U.S. airports (i.e., Operational Evolution Partnership (OEP) airports). We are pleased that sections 213 and 214 of H.R. 658 require the FAA to establish, based on stakeholder input, NextGen performance goals and metrics, which is a crucial step to ensuring its successful and timely implementation. While the March 2011 FAA NextGen Implementation Plan maintains that NextGen could reduce flight delays by as much as 35 percent, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) noted in December 2010 that the agency has not yet outlined specific goals or identified how it plans to achieve those outcomes. We also support provisions in section 214 that direct FAA to establish performance metrics for the development of PBN procedures that would show, among other things, how such procedures will reduce flight times and save fuel. FAA currently measures its performance by the number of flight routes it creates annually, which does not necessarily benefit airlines and other stakeholders.

3. Congress needs to accelerate the deployment of NextGen Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. It is imperative that Congress enable FAA to move forward promptly with its NextGen program and authorize its acceleration through NowGen. The environmental, capacity and efficiency benefits of NextGen are critical to meeting the needs of the flying and shipping public and improving the financial condition of the U.S. airline industry. FAA reauthorization legislation should embrace new thinking and new ideas about infrastructure funding, especially in light of current economic conditions and the need for FAA to be able to plan its research, development and acquisitions over several years. The principle of fair and equitable funding of the ATC system and the AIP program should be imbedded in reauthorization legislation.

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Solvency: Mechanism—Accelerated Deployment [cont’d]

4. Should implement shelf-ready parts of NextGen now—need congressional leadership TK Kallenbach, Vice President, Honeywell, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 3—25—09, lexis. We Must Accelerate NextGen Implementation The NextGen Air Transportation System is needed to fuel our economic growth, lower energy use, and protect our environment. We must make it a national priority and provide the structure, leadership, and resources needed to be successful. We need not wait for 2025 to see results, and in fact, we must not. Improvements are needed today and solutions are on the shelf waiting to be deployed. We offer the following recommendations: 1) Establish and fund a fully responsible and accountable NextGen Implementation Office in 2009. 2) Accelerate the requirement for ADS-B OUT capability to 2015 and provide the funding needed to satisfy the cost-benefit analysis. 3) Install GBAS technology in the top 20 most congested US airports by 2011 and top 50 most congested airports by 2013. 4) Set and measure an RNP adoption target beginning in 2009 with a 20% year-over-year increase until 90% of commercial flights are using RNP procedures, including Continuous Descent Arrivals. Our shared vision for NextGen is clear. The aviation industry now looks to the Congress and FAA for the focused leadership required to implement this much-needed advance in our transportation infrastructure.

5. Acceleration offers substantial economic and environmental benefits Deloitte, TRANSPFORMING THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A BUSINESS CASE FOR PROGRAM ACCELERATION, 7—11, p. 30. One of the primary purposes of this business case is to assess the investment return of the potential acceleration of global ATS transformation programs by five years, with completion by the end of 2020. However, as described in detail above, there are significant challenges and risks that would prevent an accelerated implementation, no matter what the financial merits. But given the opportunity to overcome these risks, we found that in all scenarios, an assumed inclusion of all three tiers of benefits, the business case improves in terms of NPV, payback and IRR metrics. In summary, we found the business case NPV improvement is in a range of between $68 billion in the Grounded scenario to $131 billion in the Take-off scenario. Projected IRR investment metrics improve in a similar fashion under the ATS program acceleration case. As stated earlier however, the Grounded scenario at the lower end of the improvement range only includes tier 1 benefits of direct fuel and operating savings. We believe this is a very unlikely scenario, as air travel demand would be expected to grow at least moderately over the investment time horizon through 2035. In summary, the Deloitte base business case (Steady Flight), without program acceleration, has an NPV of $897 billion as stated earlier. However, we found that by accelerating global programs with completion by 2020, the NPV increases $100 billion to $997 billion, an 11.1% improvement. For the U.S., accelerating the NextGen program increases the NPV $20 billion to $301 billion. Accelerating the SESAR program increases the NPV $51 billion to $318 billion. NPV increases for the ROW rise $29 billion to $378 billion. With program acceleration in the base case, aircraft delay reductions by the end of 2020 are expected to reduce emissions by 128 million metric tons of CO2, NOx and SOx, and save 15 million hours saved in flight delays, representing $41 billion of additional benefit to airlines and a further $17 billion of savings to the global economy in passenger productivity. Finally, the transformation is expected to free up additional capacity in terms of increased aircraft movements, which translates to $21 billion in additional operating revenue for airlines and $49 billion in added value to the global economy.

6. Rapid NextGen rollout is key to improving the aviation industry Thomas Hendricks, Vice President for Operations and Safety, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. ATA members believe that Congress and the Administration should be guided by a National Airline Policy that will treat America's airlines like the global businesses they are and enable them to operate as such. An indispensable element of such a policy is the modernization of the U.S. air traffic management system, the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). We therefore appreciate the opportunity to express our views about the progress of this critical national infrastructure program. Carriers understand the importance of NextGen and are passionate about it. We believe that tangible, near-term results that improve schedule reliability and customer satisfaction, reduce delays, save fuel and reduce emissions can be achieved. Today's NextGen technologies and current equipage can deliver greater efficiencies. In order to achieve these near-term benefits, the FAA should focus on ensuring that the needed policies, procedures and training are in effect to enable realization of the benefits.

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Solvency: Mechanism—Accelerated Deployment [cont’d]

7. Faster NextGen rollout will avoid costly diversions TK Kallenbach, Vice President, Honeywell, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 3—25—09, lexis. Ground-Based Augmentation System Reduces Costly Diversions The GPS Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS) is the next-generation precision landing system technology, a 21st century alternative to the 1950s-era Instrument Landing System (ILS) currently in operation. GBAS technology utilizes a ground system installed at an airport to identify and correct small errors in GPS satellite signals and transmits this information to arriving and departing aircraft. This high-integrity, extremely precise positioning data is coupled with GBAS-provided approach paths and aircraft avionics to guide the aircraft to the runway in low visibility conditions. Due to limitations with current ILS equipment, airports routinely lose capacity as visibility decreases. Fifteen of our top U.S. airports experience greater than 25 percent reduced capacity when ceilings are below 200 feet n5. In these situations, aircraft are often forced to wait in holding patterns - burning extra fuel or even worse, diverted to alternate airports. GBAS technology provides precision approach capability to all runway ends, maximizing airport capacity in all visibility conditions and minimizing delays and diversions - ultimately saving fuel and reducing emissions - while also contributing to a safer operating environment.

8. Equipage support is necessary to solve—loan guarantees

Ashley Halsey, “Antidote to Air Gridlock May Not Get off Ground,” SEATTLE TIMES, 7—4—11, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boeingaerospace/2015510103_airtraffic05.html, accessed 4-23-12. Making the business case that will persuade airlines to take the financial plunge is at the core of the debate. The single biggest incentive to airlines would be persuasive evidence of an immediate return on their investment in fuel savings and fewer delays. One suggestion has been to allow NextGen-equipped planes to land and take off first. Given that a jetliner can burn through $1,000 in fuel in less than a half-hour, circling the airport in a holding pattern becomes an expensive proposition. With most U.S. airlines operating in the red, Chew says few will take the investment leap unless the government has more "skin in the game" than promises and deadlines. Chew is leading an investment group that proposes to lend the airlines money to equip their planes, with a repayment plan that is deferred until the FAA delivers the system. The key, however, is that the federal government must agree to make loan payments if the FAA misses its deadlines. "If the government OKs loan guarantees for equipage, it would jump-start the process," Chew said. "The airlines are not going to want to make any kind of payments until the FAA is ready to deliver. If they don't deliver by 2018, then the airlines are off the hook for these payments." Chew says the FAA and Congress have been receptive to that form of loan guarantee, but so far without committing to it. With Congress in a cost-cutting mood, loan guarantees may provide a viable alternative to slashing a program that virtually everyone supports.

9. Accelerating NextGen implementation offers potentially $1.3T in benefits Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 4. A recent Deloitte LLP report estimates the potential merits of accelerating the NextGen programs, as well as assessing the economic effect of potential implementation delays.7 The study finds that the net present value for NextGen deployment varies from $161 billion to $1.3 trillion through 2035, depending on how soon modernization is complete and whether the benefits include environmental and economic spillover effects. The study assumed certain levels of benefits based on previous studies and reports. For example, between 2009-2025 fuel efficiency was assumed to be reduced by 25 percent by the end year. Airline delays are assumed to be reduced by 78-85 percent by 2025, based on an earlier estimate by the Joint Planning and Development Office.

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Solvency; Mechanism—Equipage (General)

1. Congress should authorize the FAA to fund aircraft equipage to take advantage of NextGen tech Peter Bunce, President and CEO, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. GAMA has long supported air traffic control transformation and the NextGen program. We are active participants in several advisory and rulemaking committees that play an important role in modernization. From these experiences, we believe the FAA reauthorization bill must accomplish three main tasks. First, Congress must provide sufficient funding for the FAA programs designed to advance NextGen. The general aviation community believes so strongly in NextGen that it has been willing to accept a fuel tax increase to help pay for it. It is critical that the Committee provide authorization levels for NextGen that reflect this additional funding. Secondly, the reauthorization bill should focus on initiatives so that the FAA will deliver equipment as well as new procedures, airspace redesign, and the environmental streamlining necessary to take advantage of new technologies. The inability of FAA to deliver these things in the past has resulted in aircraft operators spending money on equipment only to be told by FAA that they cannot use it. It is also important to support performance metrics in the legislation that hold FAA accountable and give the Subcommittee and the industry the ability to measure progress.

2. Need to focus on equipment—key element of the new aviation infrastructure system Peter Bunce, President and CEO, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. This focus on equipage is necessary because the transformation of the air traffic control system means that the aviation infrastructure of the future will be built in the sky rather than on the ground. Instead of simply upgrading radars on the ground, individual aircraft will be equipped with navigation and surveillance capabilities. In the past, federal funding has been provided for ground surveillance and navigation infrastructure. Given the huge environmental, efficiency, and safety benefits, it will be self-defeating if federal funding for NextGen is limited simply because a major portion of the surveillance and navigation infrastructure is now transferred to the aircraft from the ground. As these principles outline, the aviation industry stands ready to work with you in a public-private partnership to accelerate NextGen through aircraft equipage so that we can begin to accrue the benefits of NextGen as soon as possible. It needs to be a partnership because many of the benefits of equipping with this new technology accrue to the federal government or to the air traffic system as a whole. For an individual operator, the benefits of equipage are sometimes not realized from an individual cost-benefit perspective. This partnership is also necessary because even if operators equip, without FAA delivering on their commitments and promises under NextGen, the investment by commercial and general aviation operators will be wasted.

3. Need to equip planes with NextGen equipment now to see its benefits--will cut emissions, spur job creation

Future of Aviation Advisory Committee (FAAC), FINAL REPORT, U.S. Department of Transportation, 4--11--11, p. 15-16. NextGen will enable the NAS to safely and efficiently accommodate greater numbers of aircraft, from large commercial airliners to smaller general aviation (GA) aircraft, while reducing the overall environmental impact and energy use of civil aviation. However, to realize the full benefits of NextGen, a critical mass of aircraft must be equipped with the enabling technology. To accelerate the tremendous benefits of a modern air traffic control system, it is critically important to begin equipping aircraft today. A substantial investment in aircraft and runway procedure enhancements over the next 5 years would allow for the following: * Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS–B) ―Out� upgrades—All Title 14, Code of Federal Regulations (14 CFR) part 121 air carriers, GA jets and turboprops, helicopters, and the majority of GA piston-powered aircraft would be equipped. * ADS–B ―In� upgrades—A small percentage (less than 20 percent) of aircraft expected to operate in selected ADS–B ―In� pilot program locations, such as Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Alaska; and southern Florida. Environment FAAC Final Report 16 * Area Navigation (RNAV) upgrades—Upgrade 10–15 percent of the civil fleet that is currently not RNAV capable. * Required Navigation Performance (RNP) proliferation—Achieve critical mass necessary to generate benefits from RNP equipage by ensuring the portion of the civil fleet that uses the most congested airspace is appropriately equipped. * Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS) installation—Install at selected airports. Combining FAA infrastructure modernization with enhanced aircraft equipage and new procedures offers significant benefits, including reduced fuel-burn/CO2 emissions, job creation, enhanced safety and security, improved system capacity/operational performance, reduced delays and shorter flights for passengers and shippers, reduced FAA operating costs, and all-weather access to GA airports. Aviation industry associations have suggested a $6.5 billion 30-month program, and estimate that more than 150,000 jobs could be created by such a program, while it could also greatly accelerate the environmental, safety, and capacity benefits associated with NextGen. Aviation industry studies (see below) have estimated that such an accelerated investment would pay for itself in about 2 years, and that the 10-year net-present value would be nearly $15 billion.

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Solvency; Mechanism—Equipage (General) [cont’d]

4. Need investment to ensure that NextGen tech is deployed on a critical mass of aircraft Future of Aviation Advisory Committee (FAAC), FINAL REPORT, U.S. Department of Transportation, 4--11--11, p. 2. Advocating enabling technology in aircraft to realize the full benefits of NextGen. NextGen will enable the National Airspace System to handle air transportation growth safely and efficiently while reducing the environmental impact and energy use of civil aviation. However, to do so will require equipping a critical mass of aircraft with enabling technology. The FAAC recommended advocating for investment to accelerate equipage, aiming for deployment within 4 years. At an airport level, the FAAC recommended ground-delay taxi management and an airport-efficiency and emissions-reduction program.

5. NextGen funding solvency--for commercial adoption

Gerald Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure, Government Accountability Office, Testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, 2--3--11, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11358t.pdf, accessed 5-12-12. Additionally, the Future of Aviation Advisory Committee recently proposed to the Secretary of Transportation that the federal government undertake a significant financial investment to accelerate efforts to equip aircraft and train staff to use key NextGen technologies and operational capabilities, including performance-based navigation (PBN), automatic dependent surveillance—broadcast (ADS-B), ground-based augmentation system (GBAS) and data communications. The amount of investment required will depend on how any financial incentives are structured. Financial assistance can come in a variety of forms, including grants, cost-sharing arrangements, loans, loan guarantees, tax incentives, and other innovative financing arrangements. One financing option proposed by the NextGen Midterm Implementation Task Force to encourage the purchase of aircraft equipment is the use of equipage banks, which would provide federal loans to operators to equip their aircraft. Another financing option, proposed in various forms by a variety of stakeholders, would involve setting up an equipage fund using private equity backed by federal loan guarantees. While the details of different proposals vary, they would all allow operators who purchase equipment through the fund to defer payments on the equipment until FAA makes improvements required for the operators to benefit from the equipment.

6. Federal government needs to invest in NextGen technology for planes Future of Aviation Advisory Committee (FAAC), FINAL REPORT, U.S. Department of Transportation, 4--11--11, p. 3. Investing in equipment necessary to realize the benefits of NextGen. The high cost of equipage has delayed the significant public benefits that can be achieved through NextGen. Currently, there is little benefit to the operator to fund the installation of equipment that has, historically, been ground-based. The FAAC recommended the Federal Government invest in equipage to achieve the benefits gained through installing NextGen equipment on planes.

7. Aircraft equipment will decrease congestion, fuel usage Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 1. On-board equipage could allow improved decision-making capabilities and accessibility during adverse weather, as well as better data communications between cockpit and ATC. This more precise system has the potential to reduce the minimum aircraft separation standard and allow more direct flight patterns, thus decreasing fuel consumption, carbon emissions, and congestion.

8. Equipage assistance will accelerate rollout

National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), EXPEDITING AIR TRAFFIC MODERNIZATION AND ACCELERATING NEXTGEN, 2009, http://www.nam.org/~/media/9D17E31A28104FE69FBBE244FEEB59E9/NextGen_to_NowGen.pdf, accessed 12-12-11. Encouraging Investment in Equipment: Investing in avionics and other equipment and training in support of the NextGen system is a multi-billion-dollar investment that airlines and operators are unable to justify when the government has not made a clear commitment that the supporting NextGen air traffic equipment and services will be deployed in the near-term. A federal program or initiative that would incentivize early purchase decisions for NextGen airborne capability will support a business case to equip by reducing investment risk and making NextGen a stronger certainty.

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Solvency: Mechanism—Equipage (Economic Benefits)

1. Equipage support will provide enormous economic benefits NEXA Advisors, NEXTGEN EQUIPAGE FUND: JOB CREATION, ECONOMIC BENEFITS, AND CONTRIBUTION TO FEDERAL REVENUES, 4—11, p. 3. In an important recent study, “The Economic Impact of Civil Aviation on the U.S. Economy”, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) estimated that civil aviation accounted for 12 million U.S. jobs and $1.3 trillion in economic activity annually. FAA also estimated that implementing the Next Generation Air Transportation System (“NextGen”) infrastructure and procedures through 2018 would reduce total flight delays by 21 percent and provide $22 billion in cumulative direct, indirect, and induced benefits. The NextGen Equipage Fund, LLC (the “NextGen Fund” or the “Fund”) has been established for the purpose of facilitating the rollout of the avionics side of NextGen for U.S. commercial aircraft operators. It will provide affordable financing to equip U.S. commercial aircraft with hardware and software systems needed to make use of NextGen ground infrastructure. The NextGen Fund removes the barriers that have continued to impede the air carrier equipage decisions needed to ensure the successful, rapid implementation of the nation’s NextGen program. In this supplemental study, NEXA Advisors estimates that by overcoming airline barriers to equipage, the NextGen Fund can provide significant near term economic benefits beginning in 2013, accounting for as much as 32 percent of the FAA’s estimated benefits from accelerated implementation of NextGen through 2018. These estimates include creating up to 31,480 U.S. jobs, $6.9 billion in direct, indirect and induced economic activity, and up to $23.5 billion in total economic activity when catalytic effects are counted (Figure 1). This total economic activity would also drive an estimated $4.7 billion in new Federal revenue contributions.

2. Equipage boosts the economy—multiple mechanisms NEXA Advisors, NEXTGEN EQUIPAGE FUND: JOB CREATION, ECONOMIC BENEFITS, AND CONTRIBUTION TO FEDERAL REVENUES, 4—11, p. 3-4. The direct economic impacts result from direct Fund expenditures into the U.S. supply chain. These expenditures will purchase NextGen avionics hardware and software, almost exclusively from U.S. suppliers, also paying for up front installation of the equipment on thousands of U.S. aircraft. The indirect economic impacts are those stimulated economic activities of the supply chain itself, hiring workers, purchasing second tier components, and completing installation of the NextGen avionics. The induced benefits are the ripple effects of spending that creates economic activity throughout the aviation industry and spilling into other industries. Catalytic impacts capture the extent to which aircraft equipage stimulates growth in air transport, thereby accelerating growth of other sectors of the economy. This effect includes passenger benefits from more reliable air travel and environmental benefits as NextGen reduces emissions, noise, and congestion around airports. Catalytic economic benefits are in addition to the direct, indirect, and induced benefits of the fund.

3. NextGen equipage will increase job growth, avoid gridlock

NEXA Advisors, NEXTGEN EQUIPAGE FUND: JOB CREATION, ECONOMIC BENEFITS, AND CONTRIBUTION TO FEDERAL REVENUES, 4—11, p. 4. U.S. jobs are directly created through the NextGen Fund’s purchases of avionics from manufacturers, and the installation and support of the equipment (Figure 2). These jobs include engineers, software developers, production workers and other high‐tech specialists needed to support the development and manufacture of the NextGen technologies. In addition, highly skilled installation and maintenance jobs will be created to install and support the equipment on aircraft. In addition to jobs and economic benefits, the NextGen Fund will make significant tax contributions through both increased payroll taxes from the jobs created and Federal taxes on higher economic activity (Figure 3). The analysis projects that the Federal tax revenue contribution could be between $2.6 and $4.7 billion by 2018. Without NextGen, FAA predicts that there will be gridlock in the skies. NEXA Advisors concludes that without the early investments made by the NextGen Fund beginning in 2013, aircraft equipage could be delayed by several years or more likely, for a decade, and many of the economic and job benefits identified herein will be lost permanently.

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Solvency: Mechanism—Equipage (Economic Benefits) [cont’d]

4. Equipage support will create tens of thousands of jobs

NEXA Advisors, NEXTGEN EQUIPAGE FUND: JOB CREATION, ECONOMIC BENEFITS, AND CONTRIBUTION TO FEDERAL REVENUES, 4—11, p. 6-7. The NextGen Fund will create new sustainable jobs as soon as 2013. These jobs include engineers, software developers, and other high‐tech workers to support the development, installation and life cycle support of the NextGen avionics. Without the NextGen Fund, the industry is likely to delay equipage until much closer to the ADS‐B mandated equipage date of 2020. NEXA Advisors believes that without the Fund the industry will not begin retrofitting older aircraft until 2017, or later. The FAA Office of Aviation Policy, Plans, and the Environment estimated that an infusion of $4 billion in funding for NextGen would generate 77,000 jobs based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics data. NEXA Advisors first used FAA’s methodology contained in the FAA’s annual study on the Economic Impact of Civil Aviation on the U.S. Economy to estimate the number of jobs NextGen will create. Based on this analysis, aircraft equipage is estimated to create 24 jobs, defined as Full‐Time Equivalents (FTE), for every $1 million dollars invested in the year the funds are spent. The estimate of equipage includes ADS‐B and Ground‐Based Augmentation System (GBAS). NEXA Advisors also researched job creation across other industries (Figure 5) and found an average of 17 jobs are created per million dollars invested. NEXA Advisors finds it reasonable to assume that new technologies avionics equipage, including SWIM and Data Comm, will have the same ratio of jobs to $1 million dollars invested. NEXA Advisors also assumes that the manufacture of the avionics for surveillance and communications will take place in the U.S. while 20 percent of the installation will take place outside of the U.S. since airlines outsource heavy maintenance to other countries. NEXA Advisors further assumes that for NextGen equipage, the job creation is divided between avionics manufacturing and installation/maintenance on the aircraft. Therefore, it is assumed that 90 percent of the jobs created will be in the U.S.

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Solvency: Mechanism—Flight Path Upgrades

1. Need to accelerate redesign of airspace/lanes—Congressional leadership is key TK Kallenbach, Vice President, Honeywell, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 3—25—09, lexis. Finally, it is important to keep in mind that none of these NextGen capabilities can be successfully deployed, nor the benefits fully achieved, without restructuring the routes aircraft fly as they arrive and depart from our nation's airports. Using RNP, CDA, and GBAS, these new routes are often more community-friendly, creating less noise and emissions. For example, Figure 5 shows the flight paths for RNP (green) and Non-RNP (red) aircraft approaching Brisbane runway 01 via the 'River' noise abatement procedure. The RNP approach allows tracking at lower altitudes over non-residential areas such as, in this case, the Brisbane River and industrial areas. With RNP (green), the precision to stick to the river and not 'creep' over neighboring residential areas is quite clear. While it is understandable that local communities have strong interests in where these virtual 'off-ramps' and 'on-ramps' are located, it also needs to be clearly understood that these changes are needed to achieve the broader community benefits of overall reduced noise and emissions. An example of this dynamic is the on-going effort to reduce congestion in the New York terminal airspace. Four of our nation's most delay-prone airports are located within this airspace and effects from these delays routinely ripple throughout the U.S. Efforts to provide congestion relief via airspace redesign to take advantage of new capabilities and procedures has been in work for over a decade, delayed in part by opposition from local community groups. The support and leadership of Congress is absolutely critical in developing the community consensus needed to aggressively deploy NextGen capabilities.

2. FAA needs additional resources to update flight paths Peter Bunce, President and CEO, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. Environmental streamlining is an area where the Subcommittee should pay particular attention. In order to use NextGen properly and provide benefits to the public, the FAA will have to redesign airspace around dozens of metropolitan areas. In order for aircraft to fly more efficiently in the system, we need to change the path they fly today. Although this will have a net positive effect on noise and emissions, moving flight paths is complicated because they require review under the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA). NEPA reviews, while important, are nonetheless a time consuming process that can take years. Unless the environmental review process is streamlined, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to accelerate NextGen. This is a particularly critical area, and the air traffic control organization of the FAA has to be able to devote the resources necessary to carry out environmental reviews that expedite new procedures making flying safer and more efficient, and providing environmental benefits.

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Solvency: Mechanism—Funding (General)

1. Increased federal investment is vital to rollout of NextGen Future of Aviation Advisory Committee (FAAC), FINAL REPORT, U.S. Department of Transportation, 4--11--11, p. 28. The FAA‘s NextGen air traffic control system requires significant government investments for systems and infrastructure, but it also requires significant investment—even with government financial incentives—by commercial air carriers and GA owners in modernized NextGen equipment for their aircraft. The full benefits of the new system would be realized when the systems are operational and most users are appropriately equipped to use and benefit from the new systems. The RTCA, Inc. Task Force 5 Report states the FAA must improve on delivering benefits when operators equip their aircraft for NextGen. Demonstrated success and realization of benefits from the new systems by early adopters will stimulate further equipage. The challenge for the FAA is multifaceted. For operators who are already equipped, the FAA must focus on advancing the benefits offered by PBN and other technologies. In addition, the FAA must improve the environmental review process, which too often defaults to the status quo rather than driving procedures and approaches offering significant noise and environmental performance. The FAA must also decide how to provide expected operational benefits to early adopters with equipped aircraft operating in a mixed aircraft equipage environment through the proposed BEBS principle. For BEBS to be a success, the FAA must efficiently and fairly provide priority consideration for equipped aircraft in the National Airspace System.

2. Accelerating NextGen will require substantial funding Deloitte, TRANSPFORMING THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A BUSINESS CASE FOR PROGRAM ACCELERATION, 7—11, p. 4. First, under the acceleration scenario, the study assumes that funding for the multibillion dollar NextGen program will be increased. Accelerating the program would require substantial annual increases by pulling forward funding intended to be spent for the 2021-2025 budget years. If the relevant constituents support acceleration of NextGen, this action would likely require an exemption from the president’s five-year budget freeze for the discretionary civil budget.

3. Funding is key to equipment adoption Deloitte, TRANSPFORMING THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A BUSINESS CASE FOR PROGRAM ACCELERATION, 7—11, p. 4. Funding challenge: Funding for ATS transformation initiatives is an investment decision made by governments and air travel constituents, and there remain concerns regarding the affordability and allocation of costs among numerous constituents, which include sovereign and local government agencies, commercial airline operators, other air space users, passengers, etc. For the overall system to work most effectively, adoption rates for equipage on the ground and in the cockpit for most if not all air space users needs to be substantial. For this reason, mechanisms for financing of upgrades and developing coordinated strategies for maximizing equipage adoption become critical.

4. Will require billions in investment to implement NextGen

Gerald Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure, Government Accountability Office, Testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, 2--3--11, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11358t.pdf, accessed 5-12-12. Congress may choose to increase FAA’s authorized funding level in the near term to allow FAA to further develop NextGen, the new satellite-based air traffic management system that is designed to replace the current radar-based system. NextGen improvements include new integrated systems, procedures, aircraft performance capabilities, and supporting infrastructure needed for a performance-based air transportation system that uses satellite-based surveillance and navigation and network-centric operations. These improvements are intended to improve the efficiency and capacity of the air transportation system while maintaining its safety so that it can accommodate anticipated future growth. FAA has generally identified the NextGen capabilities that it plans to implement in the near term to midterm, through 2018. FAA’s capital investment is expected to be $11 billion to $12 billion through 2018. This cost does not include research, the airport and associated airfield improvements, or the aircraft equipage that is necessary to realize all benefits. In addition to FAA’s capital investment costs, FAA estimates that the equipage necessary to realize significant capabilities implemented through 2018 will cost in the range of $5 billion to $7 billion.

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Solvency: Mechanism—Funding (General) [cont’d]

5. We should fully fund NextGen roll-out Brina Milikowsky, researcher, Building America’s Future Educational Fund, BUILDING AMERICA’S FUTURE: FALLING APART AND FALLING BEHIND, Transportation Infrastructure Report 2011, p. 39. Implementing the Next Generation aviation system. Air traffic control is managed by the same radar system we’ve had since the 1950s, even though data-driven and satellite-based systems have been developed. The U.S. has the world’s worst air traffic congestion—and 37% of delays can be attributed to our outdated air traffic control system. In the three New York City airports, nearly two-thirds of delays are caused by air traffic control problems, creating ripple effects of delays around the country. An investment in the Next Gen satellite-based airplane traffic control system will reduce air travel congestion and delays, and more efficient air traffic patterns will increase fuel efficiency. The Federal Aviation Administration has begun initial phases of Next Gen implementation and has developed a plan to fully adopt the new system by 2018. Congress and the Administration should work to guarantee funding for this project to be completed on time.

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Solvency: Mechanism—Funding (Stability)

1. Stable funding is vital to NextGen implementation Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 16-17. In order for NextGen modernization to reach completion, determining an adequate funding source is essential. Although the recent FAA reauthorization bill authorizes a fixed funding for NextGen over the next four years, it is unclear whether the current revenue sources are adequate to fund NextGen, particularly with no new law on aviation taxes or fees. If NextGen continues to be funded through the AATF, it is likely necessary to consider future sources of revenues or there needs to be greater prioritization of NextGen to allow general funds to supplement the AATF. The following is an analysis of the relative merits and weaknesses of each revenue source, and they might propel or stagnate NextGen progress. An effective funding mechanism behind NextGen should be equitable, transparent, efficient and politically feasible.

2. Airlines won’t deploy the tech until they are persuaded that the FAA can deliver the program Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 2. Third, the airlines and general aviation users have been hesitant to bear equipage costs due to low profitability, economic turmoil, and a lack of clear incentives to justify investing in NextGen. Operators are unlikely to invest until, at a minimum, the FAA is ready to deliver the promised benefits. This leads to a stalemate: operators are uncertain whether investing in NextGen is worthwhile, when the infrastructure is not yet fully in place, and without equipage the infrastructure by itself is ineffective. The FAA has mandated equipage of Automated Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast Out (ADS-B) that allows the equipped aircraft to send transmission to other equipped aircraft ADS-B ground stations for all operators by 2020. However, there is uncertainty over when other NextGen on-board equipment will be required, particularly ADS-B In which allows the equipped aircraft to receive transmission from other ADS-B ground stations and other aircraft.

3. Congressional funding is at risk—need consistent funding to ensure adoption, investment

Bill Carey, “Rockwell Collins CEO Urges New Approach to NextGen,” AIN ONLINE, 6—6—12, http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/blogs/ain-blog-rockwell-collins-ceo-urges-new-approach-nextgen, accessed 6-21-12. The FAA reauthorization legislation passed by Congress and signed by the President in February after more than four years of delay and 23 temporary extensions is a good-news-and-bad news story, Jones said. The good news: it finally provides the FAA with funding stability of $63 billion over four years, with $11 billion directed to ATC modernization. It moves forward “discrete” NextGen programs such as ADS-B and DataComm, and provides a “first framework” for the introduction of unmanned aircraft into civilian airspace. “The bad news,” Jones said, “is that out of the $11 billion designated for modernization of the ATC system in February, only about one-third, or $4 billion, will likely be dedicated to NextGen programs and will require four years of annual Congressional appropriations.” He then begged the question: did anybody in the room really believe our broken, ineffectual Congress could make that happen? Jones advocates an approach to ATC modernization based on public-private partnerships, where industry assumes more of the responsibility and risk, backed by the good faith of the government. “The private sector certainly has the capability and capacity to make large multi-year financial commitments,” he said. “It has the human and computational assets to perform on a large system-of-systems integration task. And it has the proven ability to attract capital to fuel investments in growth. However, to attract this investment from private-equity sources, a reasonable return will be expected for the risk taken. This is where the government must step up to provide long-term contract loan guarantees.”

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Solvency: Now Key

1. Congress needs to act to modernize the air traffic control system—now is key Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. Now is the time for Congress to make the infrastructure and funding policy changes needed for U.S. airlines to achieve consistent operational integrity, improve customer service, reduce environmental impacts and enable U.S. airlines to compete effectively against global competitors. ATC modernization is critical to improving the fuel efficiency of flight operations, reducing fuel-related emissions and reducing energy costs. FAA reauthorization offers Congress the opportunity to lead on these important issues and to enable much needed change: o Change technology - modernize the ATC system as quickly as possible and revise operating ATC procedures to reap the benefits o Change ATC funding - embrace equitable cost-based funding so that the airline industry does not subsidize other user groups o Change infrastructure development funding - enable innovative financing o Change aviation's environmental impact - ATC modernization will enable material improvements in fuel efficiency and a corresponding reduction in emissions o Change philosophy - recognize that airlines are modern, publicly owned businesses that will not be able to improve wages and benefits for employees and attract much needed capital if financial stability continues to remain elusive

2. Need to act now—air travel is set to surge

Jad Mouawad, “A Satellite System that Could End Circling Above the Airport,” NEW YORK TIMES, 4—3—12, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/04/business/a-satellite-system-that-could-end-circling-above-the-airport.html, accessed 4-9-12. Given the expected growth in air traffic in the next decades, airlines and regulators say there is an urgent need to modernize the existing air traffic control system. The F.A.A. projects that the number of planes flown by domestic airlines will double in the next two decades, while the number of domestic passengers will reach 1 billion by 2024, up from about 732 million this year. Much of that growth will be concentrated in the biggest airports, most of which are already congested, particularly at peak hours. Radar has proved to be reliable over the years. But air traffic controllers can be sure of the precise location of the planes they are directing only when their radar sweeps once every six seconds. To make up for that uncertainty, controllers keep wide buffers between flights. Satellite technology will eventually change that equation and allow planes to fly much closer to one another because they will broadcast their locations with more accuracy.

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Solvency: Safety

1. NextGen will substantially improve airline safety Michael Huerta, Deputy Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. NextGen Benefits: Safety NextGen operational capabilities will make the NAS safer. ADS-B improvements in situational awareness - on the ground and in aircraft - will increase controllers' and pilots' individual and combined ability to avoid potential danger. Among other benefits, this could provide valuable time savings in search and rescue efforts. Appropriately equipped aircraft will be able to receive information displayed directly to the flight deck information about nearby traffic, weather, and flight-restricted areas. More precise tracking and information-sharing will improve the situational awareness of pilots, enabling them to plan and carry out safe operations in ways they cannot do today. Air traffic controllers will become more effective guardians of safety through automation and simplification of their most routine tasks, coupled with better awareness of conditions in the airspace they control. Additionally, NextGen will facilitate the implementation of Safety Management System processes for the air traffic controllers' use. Advances in tracking and managing operations on airport surfaces will make runway incursions less likely. Fusing surface radar coverage from Airport Surface Detection Equipment-Model X (ASDE-X) with ADS-B surveillance of aircraft and ground vehicles will increase situational awareness, particularly when linked with runway status lights. Collaborative decision making will increase everyone's understanding of what others are doing. Starting with pre-takeoff advisories, departure instructions and reroutes for pilots, we will use data messages increasingly instead of voice communications between pilots and controllers, reducing opportunities for error or misunderstanding. Voice channels will be preserved for the most critical information exchange.

2. NextGen will improve the safety of the entire aviation system Jim May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association of America, Testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, 5—13—09, lexis. Safety. NextGen’s satellite-based system will look and act much like a network to which aircraft and ATC are interconnected. It will provide more precise information to both controllers and pilots about aircraft locations, both in the air and on the ground, and will enable aircraft to constantly know one another’s locations. This locational awareness and corresponding digital communications capability will provide critical real-time flight status information not available today. Some of the technology and operating procedures have already been tested and have produced dramatic results. A sharp drop in aircraft accidents in Alaska occurred under the Capstone Program, introduced earlier this decade, which utilizes ADS-B technology, a foundational technology for NextGen.

3. NextGen improves safety, offers substantial benefits Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 9-10. With more precise location information on all aircraft, controllers can have a much better sense of their location with respect to the location of other moving and non-moving aircraft in their vicinity. NextGen provides precision vertically guided approaches with no equipment expenditure on the ground. The direct result of the improved information is less of a risk of collisions on the ground or in the air, especially in times of low visibility. While commercial aviation in the United States has an unparalleled safety record, general aviation still faces substantial flight incidents and casualties annually. An analysis of the National Transportation Safety Board’s (NTSB) data for general aviation accidents shows over 1,000 cases in 2010, including 245 casualties.25 A common probable cause for accident according to the NTSB’s investigation reports is pilot error due to lack of situational awareness, particularly during times of poor visibility. In quantifying the cost of fatalities, the USDOT’s recommended value per casualty is $5.8 million, or a range of $3.2-$8.4 million due to uncertainty.26 Based on this estimate, the cost of general aviation accidents in terms of lives lost is about $1.421 billion or between $784 million-$2.058 billion annually. The database indicates damage to the aircraft as “substantial” or “destroyed”. In 2010 there were 38 cases where the aircraft was completely destroyed, and 981 cases of substantial damage. Using a roughly estimated price of a used Cessna 180 aircraft of $100,000, the cost of destroyed aircraft is approximately $3.8 million. The cost of damaged aircraft is about $24.5 million, assuming the per-aircraft cost to be a quarter of damaged aircraft. Based on these estimates, the total cost of accidents to the general aviation community in 2010 was about $1.449 billion. Even with on-board ADS-B, the prospect of greater situational feedback and data could be undermined by human error of judgment. However, a reasonably moderate estimate can be made where greater situational awareness does contribute to preventing some accidents. Table 5 shows savings to the general aviation community under various levels of NextGen’s impact on safety. Even if NextGen plays a small role in improving safety and reducing incidents in general aviation, the potential benefits are substantial.

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Solvency: Safety [cont’d]

4. NextGen is vital to improving the safety of the aviation system Captain Moak, President, Air Line Pilots Association International, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. Aviation safety is vital to our country and air traffic control (ATC) system modernization and NextGen is vital to the future of aviation safety. Today's U.S. air transportation system is the safest in the world. You are about 40 times safer in an airliner than on the safest highway system in the world. But we are at a crossroads. Our ATC system is getting older and there are many systems on our aircraft that are not used to their fullest capabilities. Infrastructure is woefully outdated, the equipment's capabilities are limited, facilities are crumbling, efficiency is decreasing, and capacity is limited. These shortcomings, left unchecked, eventually have the potential to decrease efficiency and even erode safety margins, because our air traffic system and infrastructure have not been kept up to date. Despite all that, it is a tribute to the dedication and professionalism of our pilots, controllers, and air traffic services employees that the system continues to operate safely, albeit at a slower tempo during periods of radar outages, poor weather, and mass congestion. The system we are given to work with, however, cannot keep going indefinitely. In 1931, ALPA's founders chose the motto "Schedule with Safety." That era saw accident rates many times higher than those of today. In fact, over half the founding members of ALPA died in aircraft accidents. ALPA is keenly aware of the continuing need to improve the safety of the air transportation system. Over the past 80 years, NAS has changed greatly. Communications evolved from light signals and burning oil cans to lightweight and reliable radios to where we are now, using a data link technology akin to texting to track aircraft. The ATC system in the contiguous United States has moved from separating flights using radio position reports to positive control using radar that extends from coast to coast. With the introduction of the Global Positioning System (GPS), a system originally designed by the Department of Defense as a precision method to attack targets and adapted by the aviation industry, aircraft navigation is moving from a ground-based navigation system to a satellite-based navigation system and at the same time achieving unprecedented levels of positioning accuracy. GPS technology allows all types of aircraft, both large and small, to fly approaches around the world in all types of weather using purely satellite-based navigation systems. All of these changes have two things in common. They have made air travel safer, and they were successfully accomplished when there was a collaborative relationship between the government and the private sector. In each example, the private sector and government worked together to develop system and equipment specifications, new controller and pilot procedures, training requirements, and the development and implementation of ground and airborne infrastructure. ALPA is working actively with industry, the FAA, and the JPDO to ensure that NextGen is yet another example of a successful collaboration leading to fundamental change to the NAS. We have a lot of work to do. It is almost unbelievable, but despite improvements in technology, a large percentage of the approximately 50,000 flights a day in the United States are controlled much the same as they were in 1960--by World War II-era ground radar stations. NextGen will completely replace our World War II-era analog, ground radar-based air traffic control infrastructure with a 21st-century, all digital, satellite-based system. NextGen provides precision surveillance and navigation capability that will give pilots and controllers more accurate and detailed real-time information about aircraft location than is currently possible, increasing situational awareness and making the system safer. NextGen will bring precision-approach capability to locations and runways where precision approaches do not currently exist. A full list of these runways is attached at the end of this statement, but what this means is that in locations and runways like Reagan National 19, Chicago Midway 4L-22L-31C, Boston 4R-9-22R-32, and Minneapolis 4-17-22 to name a few, pilots will be given precise aircraft location and altitude information relative to the landing runway, improving safety and capacity when operating in adverse weather conditions. Without the improved navigation accuracy possible through NextGen, we are seeing the implementation of nonstandard procedures in some locations in an attempt to gain capacity and efficiency improvements. While we have worked hard to ensure an adequate level of safety, moving forward on NextGen implementation would mitigate the need for these nonstandard, location-specific applications. Our current system is capacity limited. Without the improved navigation accuracy possible through NextGen, we risk reducing the current safety margin for that system capacity. The 793 ground transceivers that comprise the NextGen surveillance system will be in place by 2013, but NextGen cannot work unless the commercial airlines and private aircraft install avionics systems designed to send and receive NextGen data. This equipment, however, isn't required until 2020, a seven-year gap that could cost our economy $35 billion in reduced benefits.

5. NextGen improves airline safety Nicholas Calio, President and Chief Executive Officer, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—9—11, lexis. Safety. NextGen's satellite-based system will look and act much like a network to which aircraft and ATC are interconnected. It will provide more precise information to both controllers and pilots about aircraft locations, both in the air and on the ground, and will enable aircraft to constantly know one another's locations. This locational awareness and corresponding digital communications capability will provide critical real-time-flight status information typically not available today.

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Disadvantage Answers: Budget

1. NextGen will pay for itself within years Michael Huerta, Deputy Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. What are we getting for our money? Our latest estimates show that by 2018, we will recoup our investment and NextGen air traffic management improvements will reduce total delays, in flight and on the ground, about 35 percent, compared with what would happen if we did nothing. The delay reduction will provide $23 billion in cumulative benefits through 2018 to aircraft operators, the traveling public, and the FAA. We will save about 1.4 billion gallons of aviation fuel during this period, cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 14 million tons.

2. NextGen will only cost $40B, will substantially improve the aviation industry Thomas Hendricks, Vice President for Operations and Safety, Air Transport Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. NextGen is estimated to cost $40 billion. NextGen will transform today's ground-based air traffic navigation and surveillance system to a state-of-the-art satellite-based system. Today's ground-based systems add flight time because they cannot consistently route aircraft in a direct, linear fashion. Because current technology does not pinpoint an aircraft's position in space as precisely as a satellite-based system, a greater amount of time and separation must be factored in spacing flights. In contrast, utilizing satellite-based systems, the FAA and airlines will be able to route flights more precisely, directly and efficiently. This will reduce miles flown, flight times, congestion and delays. Less aircraft time in the air and on the ground means less congestion and lower fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions from full NextGen implementation are impressive. They range from 6 percent to 15 percent.

3. NextGen will be far less expensive to maintain than the current system Steven A. Morrison, chair, Department of Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “Delayed! U.S. Aviation Infrastructure Policy at a Crossroads,” AVIATION INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY, 2008, p. 15-16. Managing the next generation air traffic control system, referred to as NextGen, would be much simpler and less costly than managing the current system because it would require a few dozen facilities dispersed throughout the country. Much of the current system of radar towers, TRACONS, and en route centers would be eliminated. The remaining facilities would be consolidated and kept as a backup in case the satellite system faltered; they would also be used to help detect planes with defective ADS-B devices and planes whose pilots were trying to avoid detection.

4. Air traffic control investment is economically efficient—produces much greater returns through decrease in delayed flights

Steven A. Morrison, Professor, Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “The Effect of FAA Expenditures on Air Travel Delays,” JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS v. 63, 2008, p. 675-676. Based on the preceding estimates of the costs of delay to commercial airlines, commuters, and general aviation and the predictions of delays with and without FAA expenditures, we find that one dollar of current spending reduces the cost of delay to airport users $2.13.22 By reducing flight times, ATC expenditures are clearly providing a benefit to the traveling public (note, we have not yet accounted for any benefits from ATC in improved safety). This is an important finding giving concerns about the efficacy of FAA expenditures in addressing air travel delays. 23 At the same time, such concerns motivate interest in whether the benefits from FAA spending could be larger.

5. A more efficient resource allocation would cut delay costs Steven A. Morrison, Professor, Economics, Northeastern University and Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, “The Effect of FAA Expenditures on Air Travel Delays,” JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS v. 63, 2008, p. 676. We find that airport users would save $2.2 billion in delay costs (and that one dollar of current spending now reduces the cost of delay $4.67) if FAA expenditures were allocated among airports to minimize total airport costs.24 This represents an 18 percent reduction (from $12.3 billion to $10.1 billion) in delay costs to the nation’s air travelers and operators. That the total improvement exceeds FAA’s annual spending on towers and TRACONs indicates that the FAA is allocating this component of its air traffic control resources inefficiently.

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Disadvantage Answers: Budget [cont’d]

6. NextGen costs between $15B and $20B Sakib bin Salam, Eno Fellow, NEXTGEN: ALIGNING COSTS, BENEFITS AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, Eno Center for Transportation, 4—12, p. 12. According to the FAA, the total infrastructure cost of Next- Gen through 2025 is approximately $15 billion-$20 billion. However, the FAA has not published its cost breakdowns for individual infrastructure projects. To the best of our knowledge, the only published source for the project costs is the recent GAO report that tracks the status of NextGen projects and associated costs. Based on that report, Table 7 shows 30 major NextGen programs with FAA approved budget and schedule,29 with an estimated total cost of about $14.243 billion.

7. Air traffic control is too expensive now—can be solved by better technology Dr. Dorothy Robyn, principal, The Brattle Group and economic consultant, “Air Support: Creating a Safer and More Reliable Air Traffic Control System,” DISCUSSION PAPER, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 7—08, p. 13-14. Despite the FAA’s $50 billion investment in modernization, the cost of providing air traffic control services is significantly higher now than it was when the agency began that effort. This increase in operating costs represents a third symptom of the deeper problem that plagues the air traffic control system. Figure 5 shows the change in the unit cost of air traffic control service provision over time as measured by the FAA’s cost-per-instrument-operation, adjusted for inflation. The FAA’s unit cost was flat from 1984 to 1997. This is in contrast with the trend in most high-tech activities, which benefited from the plummeting cost of computing power. Moreover, in the past ten years FAA unit costs have gone up by 45 percent, largely because of wage increases in the collective bargaining agreement that the FAA signed with the National Air Traffic Controllers Association in 1998. Although the agreement envisioned that productivity gains would offset the wage increase, those gains have not materialized. Controllers argue that an increase in unit cost is natural because the provision of air traffic control services is labor intensive. I disagree: air traffic control is not inherently labor intensive. On the contrary, the air traffic control system, which amounts to a large telecommunications network, is capital intensive, and telecom costs elsewhere have dropped significantly, thanks in part to Moore’s Law. Although new technology will not eliminate the need for controllers, many of the routine tasks that they now perform could be performed more efficiently—and more safely—by new hardware and software. For example, a large fraction of all air-to-ground communications involves the hand-off of a flight from one sector to another, a task that could and should be automated, allowing controllers to focus on more complex and challenging tasks.

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Topicality Answers: General

1. Equipping aircraft with NextGen technology is infrastructure investment Edward Bolen, President and CEO, National Business Aviation Association, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 10—5—11, lexis. So, while general aviation has never been nor is it projected to be a major cause of system delays, we have a strong record of working tirelessly to expand system capacity and improve system efficiency. Thus, it should come as no surprise that general aviation has been a leading proponent of NextGen. In order to expedite the transition to NextGen, it has been suggested that government investment in aircraft equipage is an important infrastructure investment that will streamline the system and further reduce aviation's already small environmental footprint. As the Subcommittee reviews these questions, we urge you to be sure that any program developed is equally available to all operators in the system,

2. Control upgrades are part of our infrastructure Donna Cooper, senior fellow, Center for American Progress, MEETING THE INFRASTRUCTURE IMPERATIVE, 2--12, p. 38. In addition to the traditional capacity and expansion needs of our airports, the Federal Aviation Administration expects to spend approximately $20 billion to build a state-of-the-art air traffic control system known as “NextGen” by 2025. NextGen provides critical new infrastructure capacity to our airport safety systems. The FY 2010 appropriations for NextGen were $868 million. Although this basic technology upgrade of our air traffic system could be reasonably considered as a critical element of our air travel infrastructure, we have not factored these capital costs into our infrastructure funding proposal because, to date, these facility improvements are paid for with general revenues.

3. GPS is the most important part of the global navigation infrastructure Vincent Galotti, Deputy Director, Air Navigation Bureau, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) of the United Nations, Testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Aviation, 2—8—12, lexis. Russia has its GLONASS which has had some reliability and maintenance problems over the years although that government has now committed to a next generation system. Europe has its Galileo which is not yet operational and China is in the process of launching its Compass system. Because of the reliability and continued upgrading of the GPS and the commitment of the United States government, GPS is the most fundamental and important piece of supporting infrastructure of the global system.