air transport · 2019-11-19 · 17/11/2016 chris chalk | wales transport conference 2016 | aviation...

Impact of further runways at Heathrow on

Wales

Air Transport

1. Context of ICE’s involvement in the Airport’s Commission

2. What is the Heathrow proposal and some words on the “ramp over the M25”

3. What does an expanded Heathrow mean for Wales and what happens in the mean time

4. Potential Brexit disruptors that could affect aviation anyway

Agenda

17/11/2016 Chris Chalk | Wales Transport Conference 2016 | Aviation 2


Under the transport expert panel • Established a “lifed” aviation expert panel • Contributed to calls for evidence • Arranged briefings for members • Established briefing documents and policy

ICE’s involvement in the Airport’s Commission


The value of aviation to the UK Overcoming inertia, the Davies Commission and cross party consensus Recognising the different roles of the UK hub, other London airports and regional airports Future hub capacity Climate Change and Local Air Quality Aircraft Noise

ICE Papers UK Aviation Strategy


The ICE believes that a long term affordable, stable and sustainable development framework for the UK aviation industry is needed, within which the future development of a national hub whether at its existing location or elsewhere can be guaranteed.

The ICE strongly supports the continued development of new capacity in our aviation infrastructure, provided that this is undertaken in a responsible and sustainable manner


“We believe that the expansion of Heathrow Airport and the north-west runway scheme offers the greatest level of benefit to passengers, business and to help us deliver the broadest possible benefit to the whole of the UK.” Chris Grayling, Secretary of State for Transport

Statement Safeguards Next Steps Make Heathrow a better neighbour – air pollution and noise Costs for airlines and passengers Benefit the whole of the UK – increasing UK connectivity from 8 to 14 airports

National Policy Statement (NPS) through 2008 Planning Act and subsequent 2011 Localism Act

To be published early 2017

For public consultation and vote in Parliament later in 2017

The high-level arguments have been settled and won’t be reopened


economic benefits to passengers and the wider economy worth up to £61 billion over 60 years lower fares relative to no

expansion, fewer delays, better connections to destinations including to Asia and South America

up to 77,000 additional local jobs created by 2030

Heathrow have committed to 5,000 new apprenticeships by 2030

an extra 16 million long haul passenger seats in 2040 6 new regional routes proposed by Heathrow – giving 14 in total

Heathrow Proposal Independent 3rd runway benefits

a six-and-a-half hour ban on scheduled night flights will be introduced for the first time at Heathrow a mitigation package for

the local community most affected by expansion worth up to £2.6 billion

Beyond T5


Not just what happens at Heathrow


But also the other end of the journey



The Ramp


Common international standards through International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) Enacted though EASA and locally through UKCAA for UK

Standards

Runway “strip” for landing of large aircraft = 300m

wide

Runway “strip” for take-off of large aircraft = 150m

wide


Performance Gradient Gradient

Temperature

Altitude

Max average 1%

Max 1.25% for central half

Max 0.8% for each end quarter

0.1 % per 30 m change

Runway slopes

Approach 3o = 5%

http://www.vectorportal.com/subcategory/158/PASSENGER-AIRPLANE-VECTOR.eps/ifile/12066/detailtest.asp

Maximum gradients (4100m runway)


Threshold


Touch down


Displaced thresholds

Landing on a bridge


New capacity in 10 years Regional air connectivity to rise New regional aircraft

Wales has only 1 PSO route –Anglesey – Cardiff Brexit impact

New capacity will have new surface connections – rail access to west. Opportunities for connected journeys.


What does an expanded Heathrow mean for Wales and what happens in the mean time

Wales has an important broader role in aviation, Airbus, BA, military

View on Brexit Oh Brexit. Should

have looked where we were going

18.2%

43.2%

29.5%

9.1%

0.0%

How do you feel about the effect Brexit might have on your UK-based aviation business?

VeryconcernedConcerned

Neutral

17/11/2016

WTO - readily available fall-back option

Free movement of EU nationals not required of UK

Tariffs on UK trade with EU

Limited access between EU and UK for services

Applies to UK trade generally

Exit European Civil Aviation Area (ECAA)

Reduction in GDP and future growth

Free movement of UK goods and services thro’ EU (saves economy)

Must allow free

movement of EU nationals

Norway is bound by 75% of EU legislation but has very limited influence over its content

Why better than now?

Full Exit Norwegian

Chris Chalk | Wales Transport Conference 2016 | Aviation 26

17/11/2016

Growth ECAA Free movement Cabotage / AOC Being part of ECAA allows airlines to operate between any airport in Europe.

Without this BA would have to demerge and EasyJet and RyanAir would reposition aircraft outside the UK.

Delta move back to Gatwick? (Bermuda II)

Norwegian Air Shuttle would not be able to operate out of Gatwick to the US.

Decline in rate of growth likely in particular the City and the regions will affect demand.

Static until after 2020.

More Asian and US traffic would go through Frankfurt or Paris.

VFR (visiting Friends and Relatives) traffic would sharply decline (both Western Europe and Eastern Europe)

Routes would close

LCCs more affected

Brits overseas as well as EU nationals in UK

Main issues Growth

Chris Chalk | Wales Transport Conference 2016 | Aviation 27

• Strong growth in GBP priced exports

• Strong growth of inbound tourists

• Weak currency will affect outbound tourism to EURO and USD destinations

Great UK Brands are still the same • that means us

New Department for International Trade • Increasing profile and effort

Feedback from UKTI Post is not negative • New trade relationships

Decision on Heathrow is welcomed • But it will take time

The positives


Thank you


air transport · 2019-11-19 · 17/11/2016 chris chalk | wales transport conference 2016 | aviation...

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