Phase 1 Expert Panels

• Aviation Trends (January)

• New Air Traffic Control Technology (February)

• Demand Management (April)

• Governance and Institutions (June)

www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/air_plan/index.htm

Experts Consulted

Airports• Airports Council Intl• Boston Logan • San Diego Authority • Sacramento County

Regional Agency (SCAG)

FAA

NASA

Boeing Aircraft

UC Berkeley

Consultants• Roach and Sbarra• The Velocity Group• KPA• GRA• Jacobs Consultancy• ATAC

Bay Area Air Passengers

Airport Shares of Passengers

Bay Area Cargo Growth

We are in the Midst of an Historic Boom in Sales (Jets)

WORLD BUSINESS JET DELIVERIES

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

AN

NU

AL

DE

LIV

ER

IES

(U

NIT

S) JET LINERS

LARGE

M EDIUM

SM ALL

Honda JetEmbraer Phenom 100

Eclipse 500 Cessna MustangVery Light Jets

We Need to Revise Forecasts

• Price will be important/fuel costs

• Airport forecasts are highly dependent on airline marketing decisions, which are difficult to predict

• A tracking system of key forecast indicators should be developed

In Constant Dollars Passenger Fares per Mile Have Been Declining for Eighty Years

0¢

10¢

20¢

30¢

40¢

50¢

60¢

70¢

80¢

1926

1930

1934

1938

1942

1946

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

*

US Domestic Yield per Passenger Mile (in Cents), Constant Dollars, 1982 - 1984 = 100

Trend

Actual

Domestic O & D Traffic: Prices Matter

Next Generation Air Transportation System

New Technology Has the Potential to Increase Airport

Capacity

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Baseline+NewRunways

RNP RNP+LAAS RNP+LAAS+3DPaths+ATM Tools+Rwy

Sol

Per

cen

t In

crea

se (

Op

s/H

r) VMC

MVMC

IMC

RNP Background – Alaska Airlines

• Pioneered RNP in Alaska– To serve "terrain-

challenged" airports (e.g., Juneau-Gastineau Channel)

– Exploit advanced avionics on its B-737-400+’s

Source: Alaska Airlines

New Technology Can Improve Poor Weather Capacity at SFO

Cockpit Synthetic Vision System• Provides pilots with a realistic depiction of terrain databases and standard

aircraft systems on a standard flight deck display.• SVS is primarily used on approach or takeoff during low visibility conditions,

providing pilots with realistic visuals and easy-to-follow flight path guidance.

Reduced Wake Turbulence Separation Could Increase Capacity

Traffic Management Advisor for

Air Traffic Controllers• A set of scheduling and flow

management tools that assist air traffic mangers and sector controllers in balancing arrival demand with airport capacity

• Assures a smooth flow of arrival traffic into the TRACON

− Increase airport capacity

− Reduce arrival delays

− Reduce controller workload Courtesy of the Transition Working Group, FAA Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee

Other Technology Benefits

• Greater all-weather capacity for general aviation reliever airports

• Potential Continuous Descent Approaches for commercial airports during low traffic periods (noise, emission benefits)

• Safety

• Reduced controller workload

Some Key Technology Issues

• Industry acceptance (safety, training, etc.)

• Cost and who pays• Need for further system integration/

engineering work• Mixed airline equipage (some aircraft

will have it, some won’t)• Pace of development-when will

technologies be ready?

Findings/ Recommendations

• Many promising technologies to increase capacity, but few undergoing necessary system engineering to make a reality

• RAPC needs periodic updates by the FAA

• RAPC will continue to examine in Phase 2

• RAPC, airports, and local communities need to be proactive

• Look at Continuous Descent Approaches

Demand ManagementWhat is It?

• Manage aircraft operations to better match runway capacity-require airlines to use aircraft which carry more passengers-limit number of flights in peak hour-limit types of aircraft using airport (e.g., GA)

• Federal rules and regulations make difficult to implement

Only a Few Examples

• Where Congress has mandated hourly limits (“slots”) -JFK, LaGuardia, Wash Nat’l, O’Hare

• Boston Logan-minimum landing fees (1988, overturned in court)

• Boston Logan-peak period pricing (current, but not activated due to low traffic)

• SFO- study underway

Massport’s PACE Program-Goals

Ways Airports Can Implement

• Minimum landing fees instead of weight-based fees (if fees properly structured)

• Airline leases (airline efficiency measures)

• Congestion pricing (with FAA approval)

Findings/Recommendations

• No clear path to implementing demand management

• Review SFO Study as it progresses

• Request OAK examine demand management prior to major runway congestion

• Support a pilot Congestion Pricing program in FAA reauthorization legislation

Governance Panel

• Could new institutional arrangements improve long-term decision making?

• What would these look like?

-So. Calif. Regional Airport Authority (regionalization)

-New England Airport Coalition (regionalization)

-San Diego (new airport site selection)

Recommendations

• In Phase 2, examine strengths and weaknesses of: -New Authority-Joint Powers Agreement (JPA)-Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)

• Examination would be relative to Vision and Functional Needs to implement a new Vision

Next Steps

• RAPC to review and adopt Phase 1 Findings and Recommendations (October 15)

• RAPC will consider all comments

• Staff will respond to comments

Questions/Comments?