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    The Economies of Scale of CO2 Reduction in the

    Shipping Industry

    Abstract:

    It has been realized that ships are of significant economies of scale

    when it comes to average fix costs and average operational costs, but

    it remains unclear how ship sizes may influence the marginal

    abatement cost (MAC) of CO2 reduction. As international community

    moves forward to curbing CO2 emissions from ships, investigating the

    CO2 reduction cost differences among a variety of ship sizes can shed

    light on some unintended consequences to regulatory proposals, theshipping industry, and port and canal authorities. This paper uses data

    from the report of the Society of Naval Architect and Marine Engineers,

    analyzes the MAC of different ship sizes, concludes that the significant

    economies of scale exists for six ship types analyzed in this study, and

    discusses some possible influences from some ship CO2 emission

    mandates. Bigger ships have more options to reduce CO2 with

    relatively lower costs. The smallest size category of each ship type

    sees substantial cost increases. The mandate to reduce ship CO2

    emissions may impose heavier cost burden on smaller ships than it

    does on bigger ships, driving ships even larger. Port and canal

    authorities may feel the pressure too as they need to continue to

    improve their infrastructure to accommodate even larger ships.

    1. Introduction

    Shipping accounts for approximately 3% of manmade greenhouse

    gas (GHG) emissions [1], and it is considered to contribute significantly

    to climate change

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    4]. Along with other types of emissions, recent studies have

    documented the steady increase of ship-based CO2 emissions. The

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    expansion of international trade has led to substantial increases in CO2

    emissions from ocean shipping. CO2 emissions from the international

    maritime industry doubled between 1994 and 2007. Without policy

    measures, CO2 emissions are projected to grow between 150% and

    300% by 2050 and may contribute to as much as 12.7% of the total

    global CO2 emissions, despite significant market-driven efficiency

    improvements [1].

    A few technical and operational measures have been proposed or

    implemented to reduce ship-based CO2 by the industry [5]. Most

    measures can achieve some degree of energy efficiency improvement.

    For example, Propulsion Dynamics, a company specializing in hull and

    propeller performance monitoring, estimates significant fuel savings

    from such monitoring; Man Diesel, a diesel engine supplier, analyzes

    the costs and savings of engine derating and turbocharger cut-off; and

    Wettstein and Brown compute the payback time of engine derating

    using data provided by Wrtsil, a leading ship design firm.

    Shipping firms are beginning to use these measures to save fuel

    and reduce CO2. The Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK), Japans largest

    shipping company, adopted a plan to reduce the speeds of more than

    740 containerships by 10% each year from 2008 [6]. The NYK also

    cooperated with Toyota to power the car carrier using solar panels. The

    vessel is outfitted with 328 solar panels that can generate up to 40

    kilowatts, decreasing demand on the ships diesel-powered auxiliary

    engines for electricity [7]. A. P. Moller-Maersk combined some of these

    measures in his daily operation and achieved significant CO2 reduction.

    These measures included increasing ship sizes, reducing fleet speeds,

    retiring old and inefficient vessels, minimizing waiting time at

    terminals, and improving the efficiency of main engines. The company

    claimed that the CO2/TEU-km dropped 8.9% in 2007 and 15% in 2008,

    both compared with the 2002 level [8].

    The enthusiasm to increase energy efficiency is further powered by

    the price of fuel, which reached its peak in the summer of 2008.

    Although the price has collapsed since then, it has recovered and

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    remains at a historically high level. The concern of potential CO2

    reduction regulation and associated costs also incentivizes shipping

    firms to investigate in energy-saving options both from an

    environmental and an economic perspective.

    The costs and benefits of these measures are being evaluated. The

    IMO 2009 GHG Study divided these measures to indicate which were

    mutually exclusive and which could be implemented simultaneously

    [1]. This report was among the first to comprehensively review the

    costs and benefits of energy-saving measures. Another comprehensive

    overview to date is by CE Delft et al. [9]. This report presented a

    thorough cost-effectiveness analysis and a marginal abatement cost

    curve for 29 measures in 12 groups, taking into account 14 different

    ship types, often subdivided in several size categories. The Society of

    Naval Architecture and Civil Engineers (SNAME) conducted an analysis

    to update the CE Delft report using updated data and refined

    methodology. The report considered 29 measures in 15 groups for 318

    different ship type, size, and age combinations. All three of these

    reports concluded that a large amount of CO2 could be reduced

    inexpensively [10]. For example, the SNAME report showed that about

    35% or 580 million metric tons of CO2 could be reduced at a negative

    abatement cost in 2020.

    Although studies have shown the aggregated marginal cost of all

    ships and the decreasing average cost per unit of ship has been

    observed in almost all cargo ship types [11][12], the relationship

    between the marginal abatement cost and ship size remains unclear,

    creating a knowledge gap that this study is going to fill.

    Understanding this relationship can help policy makers, the

    industry, and other stakeholders in many ways. First, it can facilitate

    the discussion of the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI), which was

    proposed to increase the energy efficiency of newly-built ships.

    Currently, the EEDI is based on ship types [13], but policymakers may

    modify this if the marginal abatement cost (MAC) varies significantly

    by ship sizes. Second, if the economies of scale do exist, the potential

    9

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    CO2 regulations may drive ships to be built even larger, a trend that

    has already been observed. The policy may create winners and losers

    among shipowners who own different sizes of ships. Third, the already-

    constrained port and canal infrastructures may need more upgrades as

    ships become larger [14]; port and canal authorities may have to

    further upgrade their infrastructures and facilities.

    The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2

    introduces the methodology and data and illustrates specific ship types

    and sizes this study is going to focus on, Chapter 3 presents the

    average CO2 reduction per ship capacity for both new ships, and

    existing and new ships combined, and Chapter 4 concludes the study.

    2. Methodology and Data

    The methodology of this study follows Wang et al (2010) with

    some major modifications [10]. The MAC of each measure is a

    combination of the cost, the savings, and the CO2 reductions from a

    given measure. The cost includes the purchasing cost, the installation

    cost, the service cost, the opportunity cost, and any other cost. The

    saving is primarily from fuel savings from the energy efficiency

    improvement. If CO2 has a monetary value, for example, it is taxed or

    mandated to reduce in the future, the value of the saved CO2 should

    also be included. The CO2 cost can be easily converted into the fuel

    cost using Equation 1:

    F =1

    Ck

    CP

    Fis the price increase of fuel, Ckis the carbon content of fuel type k,

    and CP is the carbon reduction cost. For each fuel type k, the carbon

    converter is different. The emission factors of residual oil and marine

    diesel oil are about 3130 kg/ton and 3190 kg/ton of fuel, respectively.

    The MAC of the measure i of a given ship type and ship size

    combination can be reflected in Equation 2:

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    tand s represent ship type and size combination, respectively; Ct,s,i is

    the cost of purchasing, installing, and using measure i in annuity; it

    includes all costs associated with the use of measure i except for the

    opportunity cost; OCt,s,i is total opportunity cost of using the measure

    i; Ft,s,iis the fuel savings from measure i for a given ship type and size

    combination; P is the fuel price; Et,s is the total CO2 emission of ship

    type tand ship size s; Rt,s,iis the CO2 reduction potential of measure i.

    For Ct,s,i, the effect of some services and technologies may last

    more than one year, and the cost is discounted and allocated over the

    lifetime of the service or technology. This relationship is shown in

    Equation 3:

    ris the discount rate; liis the lifetime of the measure i; Ii is the initial

    investment of measure i. The purchasing cost each year is the net

    present value (NPV) of the initial investment.

    There are several types of opportunity costs. Sometimes, ships

    have to be put out of service for several days to be retrofitted with

    energy-saving technologies. If the days exceed that of dry-docking,

    these ships will lose profits that they would have made had they been

    in service. Another example is the slow steaming: when ship speeds

    are slowed, more ships are needed to cover the lost frequency. The

    capital cost and operational cost from these extra ships require

    substantial investment.

    The MAC varies by ship size for each ship type. This paper selects

    8 types of ships with 37 ship sizes (Table 1). The MAC of each ship size

    within each ship category is then compared.

    Table 1. Ship types and sizes in this analysis

    Ship Type Ship SizeCrude Tanker A 200,000+ DWT

    MACt,s,i

    =C

    t,s,i+ OCt,s,i Ft,s,i P

    Et,s

    Rt,s,i

    Ct,s,i

    = NPV r,li, I

    i( )

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    B 120 -199,999 DWT

    C 80 -119,999 DWT

    D 60 -79,999 DWT

    E 10 -59,999 DWTF -9,999 DWT

    Product Tanker

    A 60,000+ DWT

    B 20 -59,999 DWT

    C 10 -19,999 DWT

    D 5 -9,999 DWT

    E -4,999 DWT

    Chemical Tanker

    A 20,000+ DWT

    B 10 -19,999 DWT

    C 5 -9,999 DWT

    D -4,999 DWT

    Bulk Carrier

    A 200,000+ DWT

    B 100 -199,999 DWT

    C 60 -99,999 DWT

    D 35 -59,999 DWT

    E 10 -34,999 DWT

    F -9,999 DWT

    General Cargo

    A 10,000+ DWT

    B 5,000-9,999 DWT

    C -4,999 DWT

    General Cargo with Container

    D 10,000+ DWT, 100+ TEU

    E 5,000-9,999 DWT, 100+ TEU

    F -4,999 DWT, 100+ TEU

    Container

    A 8,000+ TEU

    B 5 -7,999 TEU

    C 3 -4,999 TEU

    D 2 -2,999 TEU

    E 1 -1,999 TEU

    F -999 TEUCruise A 100,000+ GT

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    B 60-99,999 GT

    C 10-59,999 GT

    D 2-9,999 GT

    E -1,999 GT

    For each of the 37 ship type and size combinations, a variety of

    energy-saving measures can be applied. These measures are then

    plotted in the marginal abatement cost curve (MACC). The curve

    represents the MAC of each measure and can be used to compare the

    reduction cost of each ship size. The MACC can be illustrated in

    Equation 4:

    m1 is the measure corresponding to the MAC.

    These energy-saving measures are then ranked on the basis of

    their cost-effectiveness. The most cost-effective measure is assumed

    to apply first, followed by the second most cost-effective, and so on.

    The average MAC for a given ship type and size is then calculated

    using the MAC of each measure weighted by the CO2 reduction of the

    measure. This relationship can be reflected in Equation 5:

    ni represents the measure with the lowest MAC. In other words,

    2.2 Data and Assumption

    The baseline ship data comes from the IMO 2009 GHG report,

    which presented the average yearly activities and fuel consumption of

    14 ship types with 53 ship sizes in 2007. This study takes a portion of

    these ship types and their sizes and analyzes the economies of scales

    MACCs,t

    =MAC

    s,t,1

    MACs,t,2

    . ..

    m1

    m2

    .. .

    M ACs,t

    =M AC

    s,t,n1 ( E

    s,t R

    s,t,n1) + M AC

    s,t,n2 (E

    s,t (1 R

    s,t,n1) R

    s,t,n2) + .. .( )

    Es,t

    Rs,t,n1

    + Es,t

    (1 Rs,t,n1

    ) Rs,t,n 2

    + . ..( )

    M ACs,t,n i = min (M ACs,t,i )

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    by comparing the MACs in 2020. The ship growth rates by ship type

    and size are also taken from the IMO 2009 GHG report.

    The year 2020 is chosen as the target year because some of the

    technologies are not currently available or their costs have not yet

    stabilized. Historically, when a new technology is first commercially

    applied, the cost may decrease as an effect of competition, maturity of

    the technology, economies of scale, etc. Therefore, consistent with

    Wang et al (2010), a 10% cost reduction over the next five years is

    then assumed for the air lubrication technology and the waste heat

    recovery technology. After five years and the 10% price decrease, the

    costs are assumed to stabilize for these two technologies. The 10%

    learning rate is also consistent with the learning rate estimates of the

    ship building industry by NASA [15]. The other three technologies that

    are forecasting price decreases in the next five years are wind engines,

    wind kites, and solar panels. A 15% price reduction is assumed for

    wind engines, wind kites, and solar panels, consistent with the

    observed learning rates of their onshore counterpart [16]. For other

    technical and operational measures, no learning effect is assumed

    because, as Wang et al (2010) point out, these measures have already

    been employed by some ships and the learning effect is assumed to

    run out [10].

    Some of the individual abatement measures that are accounted

    for may exclude each other because these measures cannot and will

    not be applied at the same time[9, 10]. Therefore, it is useful to

    subsume the individual abatement options to groups (whereas the

    measures that exclude each other are being allocated to the same

    group) and to ultimately present the marginal abatement cost curve on

    an option-group basis. Abatement options should exclude each other

    because these measures aim at reducing vessel energy loss in the

    same way, and no extra abatement can be expected from combining

    these options. For example, there will be no extra emission reduction

    from cleaning a hull that has recently been blasted. Abatement options

    should also exclude each other because a combination of these

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    measures would not be feasible due to practical reasons. Two technical

    options that require a lot of deck space or two options whose

    combination might turn out to be counterproductive (or may even

    constitute a safety hazard due to unpredictable interactions) must be

    classified as mutually exclusive too. The combination of towing kites

    and wind engines is an example of two options that are allocated to

    the same option group. Therefore, these 22 technologies are classified

    into 15 groups, shown in Table 2.

    The opportunity costs of technical and operational measures,

    except for the operational speed reduction, are associated with the

    extra days beyond dry docking. The estimated extra days are listed

    in Table 2:

    Table 2. Technical and Operational Measures

    Technical andOperationalMeasures Group

    Learning

    RateOpportunity

    CostSuitable

    Ship TypesOperational SpeedReduction (10%) Operational

    speed reductionNo Fix and

    operational costsfrom extra ships

    All exceptfor Cruise

    Operational SpeedReduction (20%) No

    All exceptfor Cruise

    Weather Routing Weather routing No No AllAutopilotupgrade/adjustment

    Autopilotupgrade/adjustm

    ent No No AllPropeller polishing at

    regular intervalsPropellerpolishing

    No No AllPropeller polishing

    when required (includemonitoring) No No AllHull cleaning Hull cleaning No No AllHull coating 1

    Hull coating

    No 1.5 extra days

    beyond the drydocking

    All

    Hull coating 2No All

    Air lubrication Air lubrication

    15%

    1.5 extra daysbeyond the dry

    docking

    All ship typewith shipsize limit

    Propeller rudderupgrade

    Propellerupgrade No No All

    Propeller boss cap fin

    No

    1.5 extra daysbeyond the dry

    docking AllPropeller upgrade No 1 extra day All

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    Figure 1 shows the MAC of various technical and operational

    measures for a given ship type. For each ship, the energy-saving

    measures are ranked by their MAC. The measure with the lowest MAC

    is assumed to be applied first, followed by the measure with second

    lowest MAC, and so on. The number of measures that could be applied

    vary by ship size. For example, the air lubrication can only be used by

    crude oil tankers and bulk carriers larger than 60,000 dwt, and full

    container vessels larger than 2000 TEU. In this case, the comparison is

    made only for measures that these ship sizes all have. For example, if

    the largest crude tankers can use 14 of the 15 energy-saving

    measures, and the smallest crude tankers can only use 12 of the 14

    measures, then the MAC of the first 12 groups of measures used by the

    largest crude tankers are selected and compared with the MAC of

    measures used by the smallest crude tankers.

    Figure 1 illustrates obvious economies of scale. Larger ships

    generally have a smaller MAC. The trend is especially palpable for

    crude tankers, containerships, and cruise ships. More startlingly, there

    is a significant MAC increase for the smallest size category for each

    ship type, especially when the first four or five inexpensive energy-

    saving measures run out. This indicates that the smallest ships could

    be more vulnerable than larger ships to absorb cost increases from the

    CO2 reduction.

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    Using a similar methodology, we produce Figure 2, which

    compares the MAC of different size categories only for new ships. We

    assume that all technologies can be retrofitted on new ships to reduce

    the energy consumption and increase the ships EEDI. No operational

    18

    -1500

    -1000

    -500

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    Chemical TankerA 20,000+ dwt B 10 -19,999 dwt C 5 -9,999 dwt D -4,999 dwt

    -300

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

    Bulker

    A 200,000+ dwt B 100 -199,999 dwt C 60 -99,999 dwt

    D 35 -59,999 dwt E 10 -34,999 dwt F -9,999 dwt

    -300

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    General Cargo with Container

    D 10,000+ dwt, 100+ TEU E 5,000-9,999 dwt, 100+ TEU

    F -4,999 dwt, 100+ TEU

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    -400

    -200

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    Crude Tanker

    A 200,000+ dwt B 120 -199,999 dwt C 80 -119,999 dwt

    D 60 -79,999 dwt E 10 -59,999 dwt F -9,999 dwt

    -400

    -200

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    argnaaemenosperonProduct Tanker

    A 60,000+ dwt B 20 -59,999 dwt C 10 -19,999 dwt

    D 5 -9,999 dwt E -4,999 dwt

    -400

    -200

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    Chemical TankerA 20,000+ dwt B 10 -19,999 dwt

    C 5 -9,999 dwt D -4,999 dwt

    -300

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    1 2 3 4 5

    argnaaemenosperonGeneral Cargo

    A 10,000+ dwt B 5,000-9,999 dwt C -4,999 dwt

    -250

    -200

    -150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    1 2 3 4 5

    ContainershipA 8,000+ teu B 5 -7,999 teu C 3 -4,999 teu

    D 2 -2,999 teu E 1 -1,999 teu F -999 teu

    -300

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    1 2 3 4 5

    CruiseA 100,000+ gt B 60-99,999 gt C 10-59,999 gt

    D 2-9,999 gt E -1,999 gt

    -250

    -200

    -150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    1 2 3 4 5

    General Cargo with TE

    D 10,000+ dwt, 100+ TE E 5,000-9,999 dwt, 100+ TEU F -4,999 dwt, 100+ TEU

    -300

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    1 2 3 4 5 6

    BulkerA 200,000+ dwt B 100 -199,999 dwt C 60 -99,999 dwt

    D 35 -59,999 dwt E 10 -34,999 dwt F -9,999 dwt

    Applying Equation 4, we calculate the average MAC by ship type

    and ship size. The result is demonstrated in Figure 3. Figure 3 shows

    that the average MAC becomes higher when the ship size gets smaller,

    although this is not unanimous for all ship types and all ship sizes:

    there are some exceptions for crude tanker, bulk carrier, and cruise

    ships. For most ship types, Figure 3 shows positive abatement costs for

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    the smallest size category and negative abatement costs for other size

    categories.

    Figure 4 shows the average MAC for new ships. Similar to Figure 3,

    it shows a higher average MAC for smaller ships and some outliers in

    crude tankers, bulk carriers, and cruise ships. Figure 4 reiterates that

    the MAC of the smallest ship is much higher than the MAC of other ship

    sizes.

    Some conclusions can be drawn from Figures 1 - 4. Although there

    are some exceptions with crude tankers, bulk carriers, and cruise

    ships, larger ships generally have more options to reduce CO2, and can

    do so more economically. Ships in the smallest size category incur a

    much higher average MAC when existing and new ships are combined

    together. If only new ships are considered, the MAC of the smallest

    ships is much higher than the MAC of other sizes, with the exception of

    the crude tanker and the bulk carrier. Even for these two types of

    ships, the MAC of smallest ships is higher than the average MAC of all

    ships.

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    -200

    -150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    A 200,000+

    dwt

    B 120 -

    199,999

    dwt

    C 80 -

    119,999

    dwt

    D 60 -

    79,999 dwt

    E 10 -

    59,999 dwt

    F -9,999

    dwt

    Cost($perton)

    Crude Tanker

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    A 60,000+

    dwt

    B 20 -59,999

    dwt

    C 10 -19,999

    dwt

    D 5 -9,999

    dwt

    E -4,999 dwtCost($perton)

    Product Tanker

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    A 20,000+ dwt B 10 -19,999 dwt C 5 -9,999 dwt D -4,999 dwtCost($perton)

    Chemical Tanker

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    A 10,000+ dwt B 5,000-9,999 dwt C -4,999 dwtCost($perton)

    General Cargo

    -150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    D 10,000+ dwt, 100+

    TEU

    E 5,000-9,999

    dwt, 100+ TEU

    F -4,999 dwt, 100+

    TEU

    Cost($perton)

    General Cargo with TEU

    -200

    -150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    A 8,000+teu

    B 5 -7,999teu

    C 3 -4,999teu

    D 2 -2,999teu

    E 1 -1,999teu

    F -999 teu

    Cost($perton)

    Containership

    -160

    -140

    -120

    -100

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    A 100,000+gt

    B 60-99,999gt

    C 10-59,999gt

    D 2-9,999 gt E -1,999 gt

    Cost($perton)

    Cruise ship

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    -150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    A 200,000+

    dwt

    B 120 -

    199,999 dwt

    C 80 -

    119,999 dwt

    D 60 -79,999

    dwt

    E 10 -59,999

    dwt

    F -9,999 dwt

    Cost($perton)

    Crude Tanker

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    A 60,000+

    dwt

    B 20 -59,999

    dwt

    C 10 -19,999

    dwt

    D 5 -9,999

    dwt

    E -4,999 dwtCost($perton)

    Product Tanker

    -100-50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    A 20,000+ dwt B 10 -19,999 dwt C 5 -9,999 dwt D -4,999 dwt

    Cost($perton)

    Chemical Tanker

    -150-100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    A 200,000+dwt

    B 100 -199,999

    dwt

    C 60 -99,999 dwt

    D 35 -59,999 dwt

    E 10 -34,999 dwt

    F -9,999dwt

    Cost($perton)

    Bulke Carrier

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    A 10,000+ dwt B 5,000-9,999 dwt C -4,999 dwtCost($perton)

    General Cargo

    -90-80

    -70

    -60

    -50

    -40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    D 10,000+ dwt, 100+

    TEU

    E 5,000-9,999

    dwt, 100+ TEU

    F -4,999 dwt, 100+

    TEU

    Cost($perton)

    General Cargo with Container

    -160

    -140

    -120

    -100

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    A 8,000+

    teu

    B 5 -7,999

    teu

    C 3 -4,999

    teu

    D 2 -2,999

    teu

    E 1 -1,999

    teu

    F -999 teu

    Cost($perton)

    Containership

    -120

    -100

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    A 100,000+ gt B 60-99,999 gt C 10-59,999 gt D 2-9,999 gt E -1,999 gt

    Cruise Ship

    4. Conclusion:

    This paper has shown that there are significant economies of

    scales with the CO2 reduction cost in the shipping industry. Generally

    speaking, it costs less for bigger ships to reduce their CO2. Although

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    there are some exceptions, economies of scale exists for both existing

    and new ships.

    As the IMO is moving toward reducing ship-based CO2, there are a

    host of policy options to reduce CO2 from existing and new ships, such

    as the EEDI and the ship energy efficiency management plan (SEEMP).

    The EEDI focuses on improving energy efficiency of new ships. Ships

    smaller than 400 GT are exempted from the EEDI proposal. The SEEMP

    focuses on the energy efficiency improvement of existing ships [17].

    The IMO has used both the EEDI and the SEEMP as a voluntary and

    interim package since MEPC 59, and it proposed the draft mandatory

    texts in MEPC 60. It is likely that both the EEDI and the SEEMP are

    adopted as the mandatory approach in MEPC 61. Other policy options,

    such as emission trading and carbon tax, are under discussion too. The

    international community is also making progress to enhance ship-

    based CO2 reduction.

    The potential CO2 reduction regulation is likely to have a profound

    influence on the shipping industry. Enlarging ship sizes can

    significantly reduce the average compliance cost. It will add to the

    existing momentum of increasing ship sizes. The smaller ships will be

    hit especially hard because they have a significant disadvantage in

    average CO2 reduction costs. The only exception seems to be the

    crude tanker, where the medium size has the lowest reduction cost.

    Shipping firms operating mostly small ships may feel the pain.

    These firms are usually from small developing countries, or from

    countries that defend their shipping industry from foreign competition.

    The United States, for example, may be hurt due to the domestic

    protection imposed by the Jones Act. The maritime transportation and

    international trade costs may also increase because the market lacks

    competition to drive down costs or to incentivize shipping firms to

    order larger ships.

    The trend that ships, especially containerships, are getting bigger

    has already challenged port and canal infrastructures. The potential

    CO2 reduction regulation and its uneven impact on different ship sizes

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    are likely to provide extra incentives to ship owners to order larger

    ships, and they may create extra burden on port and canal authorities

    to upgrade their infrastructures.

    Enlarging ship sizes can also reduce unit CO2 reduction. More

    commodities can be packed into one ship and thus reduce frequencies,

    enabling shipping firms to further reduce ship speed. Quantifying this

    effect, however, is out of scope of this work.

    Reference:

    1. IMO, Updated Study on GHG Emissions From Ships. 2009, MPEC.2. Corbett, J.J. and P.S. Fischbeck, Emissions From Ships. Science,

    1997. 278(5339): p. 823-824.

    3. Endresen, ., et al., Emission from International SeaTransportation and Environmental Impact. Journal of GeophysicalResearch, 2003. 108(D17): p. 4560.

    4. Wang, H., D. Liu, and G. Dai, Review of maritime transportationair emission pollution and policy analysis Journal of OceanUniversity of China, 2009. 8(3): p. 283-290.

    5. Crist, P., Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Potential fromInternational Shipping, in International Transport Forum. 2009:Leipzig, Germany.

    6. Wallis, K. NYK joins rush to reduce ship speeds. 2008 [cited2010 September 1]; Available from:http://www.lloydslistdcn.com.au/archive/2008/jan/10/nyk-joins-rush-to-reduce-ship-speeds.http://www.lloydslistdcn.com.au/archive/2008/jan/10/nyk-joins-rush-to-reduce-ship-speeds

    7. Mongelluzzo, B. Solar-Pushed NYK Ship Arrives at Long Beach.The Journal of Commerce 2009 [cited 2010 August 30];Available from: http://behindthewheelnews.toyota.com/?id=229.http://behindthewheelnews.toyota.com/?id=229

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