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To: Senate Majority PAC and Put Alaska First

From: Paul Harstad, Harstad Strategic Research, Inc.

Date: September 12, 2014

Re: Begich Rebounds to a 5-Point Lead, Following Sullivan’s Brief Post-

Primary ‘Bounce’

Mark Begich has already rebounded sooner than expected from what turned out to be a

fleeting bounce by Dan Sullivan following his post-primary win and honeymoon, according

to our last three surveys among Alaska voters.

As the table below shows, Begich had built up a 7% lead over Sullivan by the end of July

with a 44% vote share in a multi-candidate field. In the week following Sullivan’s August

19th Republican primary win, the Senate race narrowed to a deadheat with Begich’s vote

share dipping to 41%. This late-August tied race was not surprising given an expected

bounce with the favorable coverage and exposure enjoyed by Sullivan.

Our latest survey, however, shows Begich already recovering to a 5% lead over Sullivan

with Begich’s vote share now at 45% to Sullivan’s 40% and 6% of the vote for Libertarian

Mark Fish. While we were confident that Begich would incrementally regain his significant

lead, we did not expect him to rebound so promptly.

Alaska Senate

Preferences:

Sept 7-10

(n = 709)

%

August 24-27

(n = 807)

%

July 20-24

(n = 808)

%

Begich margin +5 +1 +7

Begich vote 45 41 44

Sullivan vote 40 40 37

3rd parties vote 7 10 10

Undecided 8 8 9

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This Begich recovery is further confirmed by the two candidates’ popularity levels over the

past two months.

Alaska Senate

Preferences:

Sept 7-10

(n = 709)

%

August 24-27

(n = 807)

%

July 20-24

(n = 808)

%

Begich differential +8 +8 +6

Favorable to Begich 50 51 49

Unfavorable to Begich 42 43 43

Sullivan differential -1 +5 +1

Favorable to Sullivan 41 42 38

Unfavorable to Sullivan 42 37 37

Begich’s popularity level has stayed consistent over the past two months and his score is

clearly ‘above water’ with a +8% favorable-vs-unfavorable differential. By contrast, after a

brief rebound in late August Sullivan’s popularity has dipped back down to even favorable

vs-unfavorable -- indeed for the first time ebbing just ‘below water’ with a -1% differential

score.

The bottom line is that while this Senate race is still undecided, Begich has emerged from

the post-primary period in surprising good shape despite all the negative ads aired

against him, and he remains in the favored position to win in November.