al anbar case study: economics/governance/engagement “a hand alone cannot clap”
TRANSCRIPT
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Al Anbar Case Study:Economics/Governance/Engagement
“A hand alone cannot clap”
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Mosul
Kirkuk
Ramadi
FallujahBAGHDAD
Najaf
Basrah
Al Qaim
AL ANBAR PROVINCE
Haditha
Akkas
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THOUGHTS
• It’s not about money; it’s all about money
• Insurgency vs Resistance
• If you hear “This is the solution” or “Why don’t you just do that” -- RUN
• Cultural Sensitivities: If you are rude in America, you will be rude in Iraq
• Perceptions of Anbar from Baghdad; and vice versa
• Shame & Honor
• Who is the real Sheikh?
• War is cruelty. There’s no use trying to reform it. The crueler it is, the sooner it will be over
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Pre-FEB 06
• Feb 2004: Marines enter Anbar - More boots on the ground - CPA guidelines • Spring/Summer 2004
- Anbar Business Association- Bahrain Conference
• Fall 2004 - Dubai Business Exchange
- 200 Anbar businessmen
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• Combat Operations– Fallujah (2004) – Western Euphrates River Valley (2005)– Ramadi (2006)
• Elections in 2005• Government functioning?• Sheikhs meeting 29 NOV 05• Al Qaida Murder & Intimidation
Pre-FEB 06 (continued)
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• Pre-deployment Econ/Gov conference (Jan 2006)
• How do we meet the Sheikhs?• Liaison Officer (LNO) re-inserted in
Amman• $$ available
FEB 06 – FEB 07
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• Status of Al Qaim/Fallujah/Ramadi• Death of prominent Sheikh: March - Get to Amman - Exposure (Abu Zena)• Fallujah Business Association - 75 businessmen from “Inside” working with 75
businessmen “Outside” - Hotel room• Dead Sea conference• Dubai conference: Jan 07
FEB 06 – FEB 07 (continued)
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Tribal Influence
• In Anbar (Dulaym)• Tribal support in Ramadi
- Sheikh Sittar
- The “Awakening”• Who joined the Awakening and
who did not? Why?
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Tipping Point
Tipping Point
COIN
IPNational Government Support
Sunni Tolerance of AQIZ Wanes
PRT
Murder & Intimidation
IA
Economic Growth (Jobs vs IEDs)
Foreign Investment (Confidence)
Tribal Unity Against AQIZ Border
Forces
Advisors Key
Crime
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• Integration of elements of National Power
• Plan; then adjust
• Books to read
• Arrogance
• Iraqi Democracy
• Reservists
• Iran
• Process vs Results
FINAL THOUGHTS
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