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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-19

The Taliban’s statement describes Mansour not just as the group’s new leader, but also as the “Amir-ul-Momineen,” or the “Emir of the Faithful.” The title has profound ramifications in the jihadists’ world. Update; Al-Qaeda's Zawahiri pledges loyalty to new Taliban chief; C do we see the signaling?

"As emir of Al-Qaeda, I pledge to you our allegiance, following the path of Sheikh (Osama) bin Laden and his martyred brothers in their allegiance to Mullah Omar," "We pledge our allegiance ? (to) our lord, leader of the faithful, Mullah Mohammad Akhtar Mansour, may god protect him," Zawahiri said, referring to the former Al-Qaeda leader and to the longtime Taliban chief whose death was confirmed by militants last month.

Al Qaeda has established several branches: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Shabaab in Somalia, Al Nusrah Front in Syria, and Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). In each case, the organization is run by a jihadist who has sworn bayat (an oath of allegiance) to Zawahiri.

“Al Murabitoon – Al Qaeda in West Africa.”Belmokhtar was originally part of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), but his longstanding feud with AQIM’s emir, Abdelmalek Droukdel

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(also known as Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud), and other leaders eventually led Belmokhtar to leave its chain of command. A statement attributed to Al Murabitoon, an al Qaeda group that operates in North and West Africa, was published online earlier today. The message says that Mokhtar Belmokhtar, a veteran jihadist who is openly loyal to Ayman al Zawahiri, has been selected by members of Al Murabitoon’s shura (advisory council) to serve as their leader. The message does contain one noteworthy twist, as both the top and bottom are signed “Al Murabitoon – Al Qaeda in West Africa.” This is likely intended to reinforce the organization’s enduring allegiance to Zawahiri.

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has not released a message for almost a year"As emir of Al-Qaeda, I pledge to you our allegiance, following the path of Sheikh (Osama) bin Laden and his martyred brothers in their allegiance to Mullah Omar," "We pledge our allegiance ? (to) our

lord, leader of the faithful, Mullah Mohammad Akhtar Mansour, may god protect him," Zawahiri said, referring to the former Al-Qaeda leader and to the longtime Taliban chief whose death was confirmed by militants last month.

C: assuming the statement is real, Zawahiri uses a few very interesting words as” “our lord” a reference to Allah’s representation on Earth side of paradise gate, a formal recognition of the earthly Caliph. This is again a punch in the face to the other self-declared, opposed and rejected Caliph; Baghdad. Earlyer, Zawahiri had a long and ugly history with Baghdadi's predecessors in Iraq, especially with Abu Musab Zarqawi, the Jordanian who founded what is now IS, and declared by Baghdadi. Moreover he rejected Baghdadi self-declared Islamic State and the claiming of the title Caliph by Baghdadi. Additionally reiterating support for the Taleban is also a tacit rejection of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the new ultra-radical Sunni Muslim movement that is ensconced in Iraq and Syria and has gained the support of a few Afghan insurgent commanders. Moreover it indicates that the real Caliph will come from the East: Khorasan according to Islamic historical writings. Additionally last years July Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and North Africa released a statement that it rejects the declaration of the so-called caliphate of the organization of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and those fighters should pledge allegiance to al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. “We confirm that we still pledge allegiance to our Sheikh and our Emir Ayman, al-Zawahiri. This is the pledge of allegiance to Jihad for the liberation of Muslim countries, the Islamic Sharia arbitration and retrieving the caliphate on a platform of prophecy.” But also and likely indicative; just a week ago, 3 al Qaeda branches issue joint eulogy for Mullah Omar Their silence is not altogether surprising, however. In al Qaeda’s hierarchy, the regional branches (Al Nusrah, AQAP, AQIM, Shabaab in Somalia and al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent) swear allegiance to Zawahiri, the organization’s overall emir. Each is still outwardly loyal to Zawahiri to this day. Zawahiri, in turn, pledged fealty to Omar. So, Zawahiri and his immediate advisers now have to determine how to handle the thorny issue of Omar’s death, and he did.

The other words are of key importance: “until we establish the Islamic state." Here Zawahiri basically indicates his strategic vision, aim and set goal is still active with their version of the Caliphate, and as it looks now with their preferred Caliph; leader of the faithful, Mullah Mohammad Akhtar Mansour at the helm. This is an indication that when the West and its allies would concur and degrade and or defeat the Islamic State, the AQ plan and game is far from over.

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has pledged allegiance to the new Afghan Taliban chief in an audio message posted online. The pledge to Mullah Akhtar Mansour was issued by Al-Qaeda's media arm Al-Sahab and was Zawahiri's first message since September last year.There had been speculation about whether Zawahiri was himself dead since the death of former Taliban head Mullah Omar was confirmed last month. Zawahiri offered his condolences.Al-Qaeda and Zawahiri considered Mullah Omar to be the leader of the global jihadist movement. This was however contested by Al-Qaeda's rival, the Islamic State militant group, which announced

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the establishment of a caliphate last year.

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri pledges allegiance to new Taliban chief Mullah Mansour August 13, 2015 14:08 BST Ayman al-Zawahiri has pledged allegiance to new Taliban leader. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has pledged allegiance to the new chief of the Afghan Taliban Mullah Akhtar Mansour in an audio statement posted online. Zawahiri, who is believed to be holed up in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area, said: "We pledge our allegiance... to our lord, leader of the faithful, Mullah Mohammad Akhtar Mansour, may god protect him".A deputy leader under the charismatic and elusive Mullah Omar, Mullah Mansour, who is believed to be in his forties and from southern Afghanistan, is a stable choice for the Taliban as it looks to the future without its one-eyed founder, who was confirmed dead on 30 July.In a 33-minute message released on 1 August, Mansour vowed to follow Mullah Omar's footsteps, despite rumours that he is a pragmatist who favours peace. "We should not concentrate on peace talks or anything related to that. We should focus on implementing the Islamic system," he said. "We should keep our unity, we must be united, our enemy will be happy in our separation.""This is a big responsibility for us. This is not the work of one, two or three people. This is all our responsibility to carry on jihad until we establish the Islamic state." He continued: "We have to continue our jihad, we shouldn't be suspicious of each other. We should accept each other. "Whatever happens we must comply with Sharia law, whether that be jihad, or talks, or an invitation to either." A Taliban spokesman told the BBC that Mansour's appointment was made without the consultation of certain factions within the jihadist group.

Update, LWJ 12 Aug, Al Qaeda has released an audio message from Ayman al Zawahiri in which he pledges allegiance to the newly appointed emir of the Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour. Although the speech was released earlier today, it is dated August 1, meaning that Zawahiri recorded it just two days after the Taliban confirmed Mullah Omar’s death on July 30. Zawahiri describes Mansour as the “Emir of the Faithful,” an honorific usually reserved for the head of an Islamic caliphate.Zawahiri says that by swearing bayat (an oath of allegiance) to Mansour he is continuing in the path of Osama bin Laden and all of the “good martyrs.” Zawahiri counts Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the founder of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), and Zarqawi’s successor, Abu Hamza al Muhajir, as among these “martyrs.” Zarqawi was killed in 2006 and Muhajir, who established the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), perished in 2010.Zawahiri’s decision to mention Zarqawi and Muhajir right after bin Laden is part of his implicit critique of the Islamic State, which evolved out of AQI and the ISI. Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the current leader of the Islamic State, has not remained loyal to the al Qaeda-Taliban axis. Instead, Baghdadi has proclaimed himself to be the “Emir of the Faithful” and demanded that all other jihadists, including those fighting for al Qaeda and the Taliban, follow him. Al Qaeda, of course, has rejected Baghdadi’s power grab.“I, as the Emir of [al Qaeda], present to you our pledge of allegiance, renewing the method of Sheikh Osama and his brothers the pure martyrs, in their pledge to the Emir of the Believers Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid, may Allah have mercy on them Allah, in pledging allegiance to you on the Book of Allah and the Sunnah of His Messenger, Allah’s peace and blessings be upon him, and on the traditions of the rightly-guided caliphs, may Allah approve of them,” Zawahiri says, according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence Group.The newly released audio message contains other implicit criticisms of the Islamic State as well. According to SITE, the al Qaeda master says that he pledges allegiance to Mansour “to establish the Islamic Caliphate that rises on the selection of the Muslims and their approval, and spreads justice and consultation, and achieves security, removes injustice, restores rights, and raises the banner of jihad.” One of al Qaeda’s key ideological critiques of Baghdadi is that his supposed ascension to the

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rank of a caliph was not approved by other recognized jihadist authorities.Zawahiri says that under his pledge of allegiance the jihadists will fight to establish the “sharia until it rules the lands of the Muslims” and until they “liberate every inch of the stolen, occupied lands of the Muslims from Kashghar [in China] to al Andalus [Spain], from the Caucasus to Somalia and Central Africa, from Kashmir to Jerusalem, from the Philippines to Kabul, and from Bukhara to Samarkand [in Uzbekistan].”Therefore, Zawahiri’s message is sweeping. While he does not declare the Taliban’s new leader to be the head of a caliphate, Zawahiri positions Mansour and his followers as an alternative to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s Islamic State. This is consistent with al Qaeda’s messaging since the rivalry with Baghdadi’s men first boiled over last year.

Translation of his speech and complete video can be found below:In the name of God, and praise be to God and prayers and peace be upon the Messenger of God, his family, Companions and whoso is close to him. As for what follows: to the Amir al-Mu’mineen: Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, may God protect him and support him with truth, and may He support truth with him. and give victory through him to His religion, Book and believing servants. As-salam alaykum wa rahmat Allah wa barakatuhu. I hope you, your brothers, soldiers, and supporters are in the best state that God loves from the glory of this world and the excellence of the Hereafter, and that God directs you to what He loves and is pleased with, and protects you from every evil and harm in this world and the Hereafter.After the news reached us with the greatest sadness and sorrow of our loss and the loss of the Muslim Ummah, the mujahideen, muhajireen and murabiteen of our amir, the Amir al-Mu’mineen Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid- may God endow the wide blanket of mercy upon him, make us join him in the highest Heaven by His blessing and favour- not disgrace, as substitutes or assailants: we were consoled by the fact that he was established on truth as a mujahid, murabit, leader and amir for the mujahideen until he his Lord. And we bear witness for him that when he spoke, he spoke truthfully, and when he made a promise, he fulfilled it, and he never compromised on his creed or religion, and he set an example of light in the history of Islam and the Muslims regarding truthfulness, goodness of entrusting oneself to God, and trust in what is with Him, and preferring the Hereafter over this world and God as one’s reliance. So he was the excellent amir for the excellence of the Emirate. For he is the hero who never bowed or submitted to the nations of disbelief worldwide, and he confronted them with his pious soldiers aligned with God the Almighty and Exalted as his reliance, so God supported him and raised his strength.[He was] that amir who said: “The issue of Osama is no longer to be considered a personal matter, but rather it has become an issue of the glory of Islam.” So God placed for him love in the hearts of the muhajireen and the Muslims. [He was] that amir who challenged the worship of mushrikeen idols, and emulated al-Khalil Ibrahim- peace be upon him- so he destroyed the idols [referring to Buddhas of Bamiyan etc.]. So he was established upon this path of truth until his fated death, for he was a man in an Ummah: may God endow the wide blanket of mercy upon him, and place him in Heaven. And if we are content with the judgment of God the Exalted, and submit to His might- glorified and exalted is He- let us ask Him to establish us on the path of truth and righteousness, and His religion, the Sunnah of His Prophet (SAWS), and on the path of jihad with success from Him and favour. So in continuation of the path of Jihad and striving to gather the word of the mujahideen, and emulating our martyred just leaders (may God have mercy on them), our amir the lion of Islam Osama bin Laden and our brothers Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi, Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, Abu al-Layth, Atiya Allah and Abu Yahya the Libyans and the rest of the honest sheikhs of Jihad as we reckon them and do not elevate them over God: indeed I, in my characterization as amir for the Qa’idat al-Jihad group- present to you our allegiance to you, renewing the path of Sheikh Osama and his pious martyred brothers in their allegiance to the Amir al-Mu’mineen Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid (may God have mercy on all of them).

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So we pledge allegiance to you on the book of God, the Sunna of His Messenger (SAWS) and the Sunna of the rightly-guided Caliphs (may God be pleased with them). And we pledge allegiance to you on the establishment of the Shari’a until the land of the Muslims prevails, ruling not ruled, leading not led, and no jurisdiction prevails over it, and no religious authority is in conflict with it. And we pledge allegiance to you on the disavowal of every rule, system, placement, treaty, agreement or covenant that contravenes the Shari’a, whether a system within the land of the Muslims, or outside it among the systems, committees or organizations that contravene its Shari’a methodologies like the United Nations and others besides it. And we pledge allegiance to you on jihad to liberate every span of land of the Muslims that has been usurped and violated, from Kashgur to Andalusia, and from the Caucasus to Somalia and Central Africa, and from Kashmir to al-Quds [Jerusalem], and from the Philippines to Kabul and from Bakhara to Samarkand. And we pledge allegiance to you on jihad against the rulers who have replaced the prescriptions of the religion, who have gained authority over the land of the Muslims, for they have obstructed the rulings of Shari’a, and have imposed on the Muslims the rulings of the disbelievers, and have spread corruption and debasement, and have imposed on the Muslims systems of apostasy and ‘amala that despise the Shari’a and make supreme the creeds and philosophies of the disbelievers, handing over the land of the Muslims and their wealth to their enemies.And we pledge allegiance to you on supporting the oppressed believers wherever they are. And we pledge allegiance to you on commanding what is right and forbidding what is right as far as we can, and we pledge allegiance to you on defending the Islamic Emirate that has led us in the Book of God and Sunna of His Messenger (SAWS). And we pledge allegiance to you on establishing the Islamic Caliphate that arises on the choice and preference of the Muslims, with the spreading of justice and consultation, realizing security, removing injustice and restoring rights, while raising the banner of

jihad. We pledge allegiance to you on all that, ‘ala sami wa ta’a fi al-ma’aruf fi munshit wa mukrih wa asr wa yasr [a classic formulation of the allegiance pledge, similar to the one the Islamic State uses]- as far as we can.So we ask God to support us on the goodness of sacrifice, and you on

undertaking burdens. Our lord, the Amir al-Mu’mineen: Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour- may God protect and care for him. God- Almighty and Exalted is He- has ennobled you and our amir Amir al-Mu’mineen Mullah Muhammad Omar- may God have mercy on him- and the Islamic Emirate with the establishment of the first Shari’a legitimate Emirate after the fall of the Ottoman Caliphate. And there has been no other Shari’a legitimate emirate in this world besides it , for it has undertaken jihad to command what is right and forbid what is wrong and establish the Shari’a. And the mujahideen and muhajireen perceived from it truth and purity, so they pledged allegiance to it, as did the reformer Imam Osama bin Laden (may God have mercy on him), and he called on the Muslims to pledge allegiance to it. And he announced that his allegiance is a bay’a udhma [‘greater pledge’, as opposed to a lesser one: similar to the Islamic State’s demand for allegiance], and all who pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden- may God have mercy on him- and Qa’idat al-Jihad group entered into this allegiance. Then God the Exalted ennobled you to stand in the face of the Crusader campaign, and ennobled you to protect your muhajireen brothers and defend them, sacrificing dominion, rule, wealth and self for the sake of protecting them. So continue on that and may God support you and give you victory. And we are your soldiers, supporters and one of your battalions. And God the Great has spoken the truth: “And whoever fears God, He will make a way out for him, and will provide for him where he does not expect. And whoever relies on God- that is sufficient for him.” [Qur’an 62:2-3].Your brother Ayman al-ZawahiriAmir of Qa’idat al-Jihad group: Saturday 16 Shawwal 1436 AH [1 August 2015]

On July 13, 2014, al Qaeda released a video clip recorded in mid-2001 of Osama bin Laden

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explaining his bayat to Mullah Omar. Bin Laden explained that he had sworn “the great pledge of allegiance, which is mentioned in the chapters of the Koran and the stories of the Sunnah,” to Omar. Bin Laden called on all other Muslims to do the same.A clip of bin Laden’s explanation from 2001 is also included at the beginning of Zawahiri’s new message. A screen shot can be seen above and to the right. On July 20, 2014, al Qaeda followed up its release of the archival footage of bin Laden by reaffirming its allegiance to Mullah Omar in a news bulletin (“Al Nafir,” or call to arms) published online. “The first edition begins by renewing the pledge of allegiance to [the] Emir of the Believers Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid, may Allah preserve him, and confirming that al Qaeda and its branches everywhere are soldiers among his soldiers,” the newsletter read.Although Zawahiri doesn’t mention it, the alleged details of Mullah Omar’s death created liabilities for al Qaeda. According to some accounts, including the version given by the Afghan government, Omar died in April 2013. If true, then this means that al Qaeda was reaffirming its allegiance to a corpse in the summer of 2014. Zawahiri does not address this thorny issue. Instead, he portrays al Qaeda’s allegiance to Mansour as a straightforward progression.There were indications prior to today that al Qaeda would remain loyal to the Taliban’s new leadership.As The Long War Journal reported on July 31, Mansour has been openly pro-al Qaeda. In a statement released in June, Mansour described al Qaeda’s leaders as the “heroes of the current jihadist era” and bin Laden as the “leader of mujahideen.” Mansour’s statement contained other parallels to al Qaeda’s messaging as well. In addition, Siraj Haqqani has been appointed one of Mansour’s two chief deputies. Files recovered in Osama bin Laden’s compound and other evidence show that Siraj has worked closely with al Qaeda for years. [See LWJ report, The Taliban’s new leadership is allied with al Qaeda.]Earlier this month, three official branches of al Qaeda — Al Nusrah Front (Syria), al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) — released a joint eulogy for Mullah Omar. All three organizations remain loyal to Zawahiri. And they praised Omar’s decision to harbor bin Laden even as the international community demanded that the Taliban turn him over. The al Qaeda branches quoted Omar as saying: “Verily, the issue of Osama is no longer the issue of an individual, but it is an issue of the glory of Islam.”Zawahiri includes the same line in his speech. And he makes it clear that al Qaeda will continue to fight side-by-side with the Taliban even though both Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden are now gone.Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracy and the Senior Editor for The Long War Journal.

Update: Mokhtar Belmokhtar now leads ‘Al Qaeda in West Africa’BY THOMAS JOSCELYN | August 13, 2015 | tjoscelyn@gmail.com | @thomasjoscelyn

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A statement attributed to Al Murabitoon, an al Qaeda group that operates in North and West Africa, was published online earlier today. The message says that Mokhtar Belmokhtar, a veteran jihadist who is openly loyal to Ayman al Zawahiri, has been selected by members of Al Murabitoon’s shura (advisory council) to serve as their leader.Belmokhtar’s appointment is not surprising. Successive Al Murabitoon leaders have fallen in counterterrorism operations, so its rank and file needed a new emir (or leader). Belmokhtar was a natural fit. His men have always been a key constituency within the joint venture, which was formed when Belmokhtar’s Al Mulathameen Brigade and the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) merged in August 2013.As The Long War Journal noted on July 23, Al Jazeera reported that Belmokhtar was now in charge of Al Murabitoon after obtaining a copy of the message (or a version of it). Indeed, the statement (included on the right) is dated July 21. So, Belmokhtar’s new role was already known.The message does contain one noteworthy twist, as both the top and bottom are signed “Al Murabitoon – Al Qaeda in West Africa.” This is likely intended to reinforce the organization’s enduring allegiance to Zawahiri.Belmokhtar was originally part of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), but his longstanding feud with AQIM’s emir, Abdelmalek Droukdel (also known as Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud), and other leaders eventually led Belmokhtar to leave its chain of command.AQIM documents recovered in Mali show that Belmokhtar sought to establish his own direct line of communication with al Qaeda’s senior leadership in South Asia. Indeed, al Qaeda’s management sent Al Murabitoon’s first leader, Abu Bakr al Muhajir, to West Africa to assist Belmokhtar.French forces killed Abu Bakr in April 2014. MUJAO’s Ahmed al Tilemsi, who partnered with Belmokhtar to form Al Murabitoon, then took over as the top commander. But French special forces hunted down Tilemsi as well, killing him in December 2014.Al Murabitoon’s loyalty to al Qaeda was briefly questioned in May when Adnan Abu Walid al Sahrawi, a MUJAO spokesman, swore allegiance to the Islamic State’s Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. Sahrawi claimed that all of Al Murabitoon had followed suit, switching its fealty to al Qaeda’s staunch rival.It quickly became apparent that the audio message attributed to Sahrawi was not accurate, however, as Belmokhtar released a statement of his own saying that Al Murabitoon remained in al Qaeda’s camp.The missive released today further emphasizes this fact. Not only does Al Murabitoon now explicitly call itself al Qaeda, it also blasts Baghdadi’s Islamic State for dividing the jihadists’ ranks.Al Murabitoon says it is “innocent” of “what the State of al Baghdadi and its leaders have done…in terms of fragmenting the ranks of the mujahideen and shedding the inviolable blood of Muslims,” according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence Group. Instead of following Baghdadi as the caliph, the group says that the mujahideen around the world should work to “unify under one word and one banner, to restore the rightly-guided caliphate.”Belmokhtar’s men are committed to the “guidelines of the imam of the era in jihad, Sheikh Osama bin Laden” and are, therefore, focused “on expelling the Crusader enemy that occupies our land, including France and its assistants, and to target them everywhere.”Thus, the simplest explanation of Al Murabitoon’s use of “Al Qaeda in West Africa” is that the name removes any lingering doubt about its status in the ongoing jihadist feud.It is also possible that the group is operating as one of al Qaeda’s regional branches, or is attempting

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to become one.Al Qaeda has established several such branches: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Shabaab in Somalia, Al Nusrah Front in Syria, and Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). In each case, the organization is run by a jihadist who has sworn bayat (an oath of allegiance) to Zawahiri. And each branch is tasked with running al Qaeda’s insurgency and terrorist operations in its designated geography. Other al Qaeda-affiliated groups operate in each area, but they are often not recognized as official parts of al Qaeda’s international organization for one reason or another. Al Qaeda regularly seeks to hide its hand in various “local” jihadist endeavors.AQIM has operated in West Africa, but Al Murabitoon may be seeking to establish itself as the preeminent al Qaeda organization in the region. Regardless, the organization was already part of al Qaeda.In March, Boko Haram leader Abu Bakr Shekau swore his fealty to Baghdadi. As a result, Boko Haram was rebranded the Islamic State in West Africa. This provides yet another reason for Al Murabitoon to call itself “Al Qaeda in West Africa.” The name provides jihadists with a clear al Qaeda alternative to Baghdadi’s enterprise.Interestingly, another Al Murabitoon emerged in Egypt just days after the statement from Belmokhtar’s jihadists was authored. That Al Murabitoon is led by a former Egyptian special forces officer named Hisham Ali Ashmawi (also known as Abu Omar al Muhajir al Masri), who is wanted by authorities for his alleged role in a string of assassinations. Both “Al Murabitoons,” which use a similar watermark in their propaganda, are a part of al Qaeda’s international network.Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracy and the Senior Editor for The Long War Journal.

August 14, 2015 3:25 PM WASHINGTON—It did not take long for conspiracy theories involving Pakistan to surge once word got out that al-Qaida’s leader had pledged loyalty to the Taliban’s new leader.Within hours of the posting Thursday of an audio recording thought to be al-Qaida’s Ayman al-Zawahiri giving his allegiance to Mullah Mohammad Akhtar Mansour, supporters of the rival Islamic State group, among others, had taken to Twitter. “They’re circulating hashtags saying that Zawahiri has pledged allegiance to Pakistani intelligence with the implication that the Taliban’s current leader [Mullah Mansour] is owned by Pakistani intelligence,” said J.M. Berger, a non-resident fellow with the Brookings Project on U.S. relations with the Islamic World. Berger said many of the tweets were derisive in nature, meant to both demean and to delegitimize the Islamic State’s main competitor as both groups vie to win over jihadists from around the world.

Pakistani involvement questioned Still, in a region where there is little transparency on relations between various governments and insurgent groups, some say a conspiracy theory about Pakistani involvement in the Zawahiri pledge cannot be entirely dismissed.“Mullah Mansour is often described as being the candidate of the ISI, Pakistan’s spy service, and as we know, al-Qaida has received the sanctuary and support from people within ISI, potentially up to the very highest levels,” Jonah Blank, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation said.“Could it be that the bayat [pledge] of Ayman al-Zawahiri was in essence brokered by Pakistan, that Pakistan is trying to use its influence to bolster Mullah Mansour rather than see the Taliban fracture into a number of different factions?” asked Blank.He pointed out there is no evidence to support such claims. Additionally, al-Qaida and the Taliban have themselves had long running ties, with al-Qaida previously pledging loyalty to former Taliban ruler Mullah Omar.Long-running ties U.S. officials also argue that despite long-running ties between Pakistan’s security services and the Taliban, Pakistan has been aggressive in its efforts to counter al-Qaida. On Thursday,

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Brigadier General Wilson Shoffner, with the U.S. Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan, made note of Pakistan’s efforts to help broker a peace deal between the Taliban and the Afghan government, expressing hope it ultimately can succeed.Still, the notion that Pakistan may have first brokered a deal with al-Qaida to bolster the image of the Taliban’s new leader may be hard to shake because, to many, the rationale makes sense.“For Pakistan, they would much rather have a group that is beholden to them and is at least willing to listen to what they have to say, rather than have ISIL make real inroads and be faced with a group they have no control over,” said the RAND Corporation’s Blank.

Regards Cees: The stated goal of Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve, the U.S.-led global anti-Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) coalition, is to "degrade and destroy" the organization. However, some have taken issue with this policy as unrealistic, even questioning the feasibility of destroying the group altogether. This debate merits a wider reflection as to other U.S. battles with terrorism and whether terrorist groups can be fully destroyed at all. Staying on ISIS for a moment, the group's seemingly surprising and meteoric rise from the clutches of its defeated insurgency after the surge and Awakening movement in 2007 during the Iraq War, has drawn significant contention regarding the handling of the security situation by both the George W. Bush and Obama administrations. According to Brian Fishman, research fellow at New America Foundation, ISIS's predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq, "was never close to destroyed," despite comments to the contrary. The Awakening weakened the group and pushed it into Iraq's Sunni heartland to fester. As a result, the group shifted its tactics and rebuilt, gaining strength in the coming years to resurge in 2009. Some blame Obama for ISIS's rise due to the fact that the U.S. did not leave a residual force that might have quelled any hiccups of remaining insurgency desires or capabilities.In Operation Enduring Freedom, otherwise known as the Afghanistan War, U.S. goals were to overthrow the Afghan government — at the time, ruled by the Taliban — for not giving up the members of al Qaeda responsible for the 9/11 attacks, as well to disrupt terrorist safe havens and military capabilities. Yet, after 14 years of war, the Taliban in Afghanistan show little sign of relenting its insurgency and focus, despite reports of internal fracturing and disagreements between senior leadership following the death of its founder and the appointment of a new leader. In fact, the time has come to potentially negotiate with the terrorist organization so as to cease continued bloodshed that appears to have no end in sight. It is quite possible that the Taliban could have been even more significantly degraded and rendered ineffective if it did not receive at least some tacit support from Pakistan, to which the group's leadership fled following the U.S. invasion.For many in government, success comes down to subjective goals. "Defeating a group doesn't necessarily mean you will have been successful at eradicating every single person who was ever aligned with the group," Matt Olsen, former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, told reporters last year regarding ISIS. Nick Rasmussen, current director of the National Counterterrorism Center, stated at the Aspen Security Forum that while "there are more terrorist bad actors coming at us from a greater array of places, in larger numbers than there have been at any point. ... I would point to the significant progress we have made as a country in diminishing — dramatically — the threat from core al Qaeda." Rasmussen continued, saying that no groups the U.S. faces today have capabilities to carry out large-scale attacks on the U.S. homeland.According to former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, retired Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, President Obama should not have used the words "degrade and destroy" to describe the mission against ISIS. "[T]hose were incorrect words to use and he should've been more precise and he should've actually stated what I believe would be attainable goals, which would be to change the behavior," he stated in July on Al Jazeera, adding "destroying" is not a realistic goal. " I don't think that we'll ever destroy [ISIS]. We may cause it to change its name, but we are never going to destroy this organization. Destroy means completely eliminate in military parlance; that would be to annihilate."

9The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: Intel to Rent Page 9 of 10

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Intel to Rent C de Waart dewaartc@hotmail.com In Confidence

Army Gen. Joseph Votel, commander of Special Operations Command, likened the current fight against ISIS to Colombia's decades-long battle against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, better known by its Spanish acronym, FARC. "I would focus you on Colombia for a moment here and look at what Columbia has dealt with for a number of years with the FARC, greater than 50 years ... it's gone back and forth and you know, through the use of kinetic action and military action, you know now they're at a point where there are actually some negotiations ongoing. But it's taken a long time to get there," he said at the Aspen Security Forum.Votel also likened the current terrorism struggle to Italy's, with a similar anecdote from a speech at the 2015 Senior Conference at West Point. "The Red Brigades gradually lapsed into inactivity through the 1980s and 1990s. However, a decade after their supposed demise, a new group emerged calling itself the 'Anti-Capitalist Attack Nuclei.' This group materialized, seemingly from nowhere, exhibiting a continuity of ideology, symbols and communication styles with the allegedly defunct Red Brigades."Furthermore, groups such as al Qaeda's regional affiliates are patient and play the long game. "When confronted with a furious Saudi attack on its infrastructure in the kingdom in 2006, it retreated into Yemen — only to reemerge as al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula in 2009. [Al Qaeda] adopted a similar tactic in Iraq, reemerging from the surge after the Americans had gone home," wrote Bruce Riedel, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former CIA official.As previously mentioned, some terrorist groups could possibly have been extinguished further. In the case of Iraq, the U.S. could have degraded al Qaeda in Iraq even further, although at the time, the terrorist group's losses were good enough to accomplish U.S. goals: a stable and secure situation in which to begin the political rebuilding process.As for the fight against ISIS, to borrow a common phrase, ISIS is merely a symptom of the greater problem of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria and that country's civil war. ISIS cannot be extinguished without a political transition in the Syrian government. "So if we don't look at the fundamental problems, then ISIS, or son of ISIS or grandson of ISIS, will be a problem for years and years to come," former Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal said on CBS in May regarding the overall political narrative of the region. The U.S. took this stance as a precondition to intervening in Iraq last summer, waiting for political reforms to take shape.As the saying goes, words matter. Destroying terrorism entails far more than exterminating terrorists. Every security situation is different and there is not a one-size-fits-all approach. Counterterrorism efforts from a U.S. approach at a basic level serve to protect the homeland and prop up partners. As for the current situation against ISIS, the metrics taken to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the group are too narrow to succeed in the long-term.Pomerleau is a freelance journalist based in Washington covering politics and policy.

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