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Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138- Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-20 The FBI, the Justice Department and the Department of Homeland Security are more concerned about the Islamic State, while the Pentagon, intelligence agencies and the National Counterterrorism Center, have their eyes set on Al Qaida. -- Flynn responded: “It was a willful decision to do what they’re doing.” That is, arm those Salafist, al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood elements, and do all they could to enable them to succeed. -- Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s emir, offers a brief introduction for Hamzah, describing him as “a lion from the den of [al Qaeda].” WASHINGTON, Aug 16: Osama bin Laden's son Hamza, known as the 'Crown Prince of Terror', has asked al-Qaida supporters to carry out lone wolf attacks in the US and in countries that are its allies. "This is your duty," Hamza bin Laden said as he called to move the jihadist war from the Middle East to allies of the US and Jewish Americans, according to SITE Intelligence Group. Al-Qaida hopes to renew its popularity by "reviving the brand" of Bin Laden, SITE's executive director Rita Katz said. The extremist group's "leadership wants Hamza as a future leader: someone loved & inspirational, without a negative reputation or participation in infighting," she tweeted. Interestingly, Hamza bin Laden makes no mention of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which is attracting Islamist extremists from around the world and has created a 'caliphate' in Syria and Iraq. "Though Hamza bin Laden mentioned Jihadi fronts and leaders from around the world, no mention of ISIS and its leaders," Katz said. Last week, al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri had pledged allegiance to the new head of the Taliban -- Mullah Akhtar Mansour -- in an audio recording that surfaced Thursday. 18 Aug, Sanaa, Yemen: Even as scores of people were killed in heavy fighting between government loyalists and rebels for control of Yemen's third city, Taiz, Yemeni residents said al-Qaeda was moving into a vacuum in newly "liberated" areas. The Saudis and their immediate allies are fighting to return Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi's exiled government to power. Other militias, also arrayed against the Houthis, seek the secession of southern Yemen instead, and reject Mr Hadi. And militants with Yemen's powerful al-Qaeda affiliate - al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) - are trying to re-establish a foothold they lost in 2012. The Saudi coalition does not appear to have attacked AQAP. Brigadier-General Ahmad Asseri, a spokesman for the Saudi coalition, confirmed the AQAP advances in Abyan. But the coalition's emphasis is on fighting the Iran-backed Houthi rebels at the moment, he said In Syria, Assad continues to get weaker and lose territory. The Nusra Front, al-Qaida's 1 The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston Churchill Cees de Waart: Intel to Rent Page 1 of 15 02/08/2022

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Page 1: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-20

Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-20

The FBI, the Justice Department and the Department of Homeland Security are more concerned about the Islamic State, while the Pentagon, intelligence agencies and the National Counterterrorism Center, have their eyes set on Al Qaida. -- Flynn responded: “It was a willful decision to do what they’re doing.” That is, arm those Salafist, al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood elements, and do all they could to enable them to succeed. -- Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s emir, offers a brief introduction for Hamzah, describing him as “a lion from the den of [al Qaeda].”

WASHINGTON, Aug 16: Osama bin Laden's son Hamza, known as the 'Crown Prince of Terror', has asked al-Qaida supporters to carry out lone wolf attacks in the US and in countries that are its allies. "This is your duty," Hamza bin Laden said as he called to move the jihadist war from the Middle East to allies of the US and Jewish Americans, according to SITE Intelligence Group.

Al-Qaida hopes to renew its popularity by "reviving the brand" of Bin Laden, SITE's executive director Rita Katz said.

The extremist group's "leadership wants Hamza as a future leader: someone loved & inspirational, without a negative reputation or participation in infighting," she tweeted. Interestingly, Hamza bin Laden makes no mention of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which is attracting Islamist extremists from around the world and has created a 'caliphate' in Syria and Iraq.

"Though Hamza bin Laden mentioned Jihadi fronts and leaders from around the world, no mention of ISIS and its leaders," Katz said.

Last week, al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri had pledged allegiance to the new head of the Taliban -- Mullah Akhtar Mansour -- in an audio recording that surfaced Thursday.

18 Aug, Sanaa, Yemen: Even as scores of people were killed in heavy fighting between government loyalists and rebels for control of Yemen's third city, Taiz, Yemeni residents said al-Qaeda was moving into a vacuum in newly "liberated" areas. The Saudis and their immediate allies are fighting to return Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi's exiled government to power. Other militias, also arrayed against the Houthis, seek the secession of southern Yemen instead, and reject Mr Hadi. And militants with Yemen's powerful al-Qaeda affiliate - al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) - are trying to re-establish a foothold they lost in 2012. The Saudi coalition does not appear to have attacked AQAP. Brigadier-General Ahmad Asseri, a spokesman for the Saudi coalition, confirmed the AQAP advances in Abyan. But the coalition's emphasis is on fighting the Iran-backed Houthi rebels at the moment, he said

In Syria, Assad continues to get weaker and lose territory. The Nusra Front, al-Qaida's affiliate in Syria, continues to control most of the border with Israel in the Golan Heights, but doesn't dare attack and challenge the IDF. The closest ISIS forces in Syria are some 70 km. from the Israeli border. The danger to Syria's Druse population has not increased. Iran, through Hezbollah, continues trying to establish terror cells in the Golan Heights area and we can already talk about a "forward command" of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Al-Quds Force.

In Lebanon, amid the threats from the Nusra Front and ISIS, the cooperation between Hezbollah and the Lebanese army has gotten stronger, and the latter is being armed with French and American military equipment. However this is a relationship whose purpose is to block the Sunni terrorist organizations and it is less aimed at Israel.

In short, according to all estimates from Military Intelligence and senior officers in the Northern Command, war is not on our doorstep. What will continue are the aggressive

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headlines in the media, especially during the summer's slow "cucumber season."Despite reports in the Israeli media, a briefing with IDF Northern Command officers does not suggest

any change is afoot on the northern border. However, the few sentences uttered by the officers giving the briefing about the possibility of the IDF taking control of territory in Syria, and even conquering a village or two on the border, were on the margins of what was said. These sentences were intended to explain that this is only one scenario that was practiced in a wide-ranging exercise that was carried out recently by the IDF's 210th Regional Bashan Division to prepare for a situation in which one of the terror groups, like the Nusra Front or Islamic State would try to break through the Golan border to attack IDF soldiers in the way that the Sinai Province of the Islamic State (formerly known as Ansar Bayit al-Maqdes) are doing against the Egyptian army.

Aug 12, Brad Hoff reported in Foreign Policy Journal last Friday that “in Al Jazeera’s latest Head to Head episode, former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Michael Flynn confirms to Mehdi Hasan that not only had he studied the DIA memo predicting the West’s backing of an Islamic State in Syria when it came across his desk in 2012, but even asserts that the White House’s sponsoring of radical jihadists (that would emerge as ISIL and Nusra) against the Syrian regime was ‘a willful decision.’”When Hasan asked Flynn if “the administration turned a blind eye” to analyses explaining how the Syrian “rebels” against the Assad regime were actually Islamic jihadists who wanted to establish a hardline Sharia state in Syria, Flynn responded: “I don’t know that they turned a blind eye, I think it was a decision. I think it was a willful decision.”“A willful decision to support an insurgency that had Salafists, Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood?,” asked Hasan.Flynn responded: “It was a willful decision to do what they’re doing.” That is, arm those Salafist, al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood elements, and do all they could to enable them to succeed.

Aug 14, As recent as April this year, Indian intelligence agencies got a specific input that the newly created Indian wing of global terrorist outfit — al-Qaeda — was planning an attack on naval facilities in Kochi and Mumbai. The alert also said political leaders including Ministers and the offices of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could also be targeted by al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS).Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri had in a video message in September 2014 announced the creation of the AQIS. India had sought the help of foreign intelligence agencies to check the veracity of the video and it was found to be genuine. Ansar al-Islam, the Bangladesh branch of the AQIS, claimed credit for the murder of blogger Niloy Neel (aka Niloy Chowdhury) last week.In the video, Zawahiri described the formation of the AQIS as glad tidings for Muslims “in Burma [Myanmar], Bangladesh, Assam, Gujarat, Ahmedabad, and Kashmir” and said the new wing would rescue Muslims there from injustice and oppression.The possibility of the AQIS planning an attack in India has sent alarm bells ringing in the security establishment here.The alert generated on April 16 this year said that the AQIS “has been attempting to recruit gullible Muslim youth from Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh,Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala and Delhi. The outfit plans to target BJP offices, commercial, tourist, religious, aviation and railway infrastructure in various States as well as unsecured waterfronts.”

Security agencies have warned of a possible 26/11 style intrusion of terrorists from the sea, asking the forces to remain alert on the occasion of Independence Day. The Home Ministry has also cautioned that the terrorists might resort to paragliders and asked the security forces to remain vigilant against the targeting of high-risk dignitaries through the aerial route.

The advisory said the recent terror attack in Gurdaspur, several terror incidents in the past including serial blasts in Patna in 2013 targeting the election rally of Narendra Modi, indicated that the threat

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emanates from Pakistan-based terrorist groups and their Indian affiliates like the Indian Mujahideen.

Possible targets Possible targets in the national capital region could be the Lotus Temple, malls in Noida, metro stations, Red Fort and political personalities.

According to another uncorroborated input the IS has hatched a “plan to hijack/explode Air India flights operating in Kabul-Delhi sector as they are being used by senior Indian officials.”

15 Aug The militant group Al-Murabitoun, which has claimed a string of deadly attacks in North Africa, has declared itself a branch of Al-Qaeda in a statement posted on jihadist websites. Al-Murabitoun said that the notorious Algerian militant Mokhtar Belmokhtar “The Uncatchable” by an ex-French intelligence chief, was twice condemned to death by Algeria remained its leader, despite reports that he was killed in a U.S. air strike in Libya in June.

The statement dated July 17 says that Al-Murabitoun is “Qaeda al-Jihad in West Africa” and committed to “directives” by network founder Osama bin Laden to attack the enemy “France and its allies”.

Al Raymi reaffirms his allegiance to “the eminent sheikh, the beloved father,” Ayman al Zawahiri. He repeats the bayat (oath of allegiance) that other al Qaeda commanders and members have sworn to Zawahiri.

July, Qasim al Raymi has released his first audio message as the new emir of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Al Raymi became the head of AQAP after his predecessor, Nasir al Wuhayshi, was killed in a US drone strike in mid-June. His message has been translated by the SITE Intelligence Group.

“I pledge allegiance to you, to listen and obey, in times of difficulty and prosperity, in hardship and in ease, to endure being discriminated against and not to dispute about rule with those in power, and to wage jihad in the cause of Allah the Almighty,” al Raymi says to Zawahiri, according to SITE’s translation.

Why Zawahri's Pledge To Taliban Could Be A Boon For IS

y Joanna Paraszczuk August 15, 2015After almost a year of silence, Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri has released an audio message swearing bay'ah -- an oath of allegiance -- to Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansur, the new leader of the Taliban. Zawahri's message is in many ways another response to, and nullification of, the Islamic State (IS) militant group and its claims to have established a "caliphate" in the lands under its control in Iraq and Syria. In declaring such a "caliphate" in June 2014, IS leader and Zawahri's archrival Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi confirmed his rejection of Al-Qaeda's authority -- and threatened Al-Qaeda's dominance of the global jihad movement.But in his bay'ah to Mullah Mansur, Zawahri does not mention Baghdadi, IS, or its "caliphate" at all. ( C: there is no reason for Zawahiri to talk about a “Caliph” that is in his opinion illegally in the position. Moreover by doing so he plays a smart game and knowing that many in the western but for most jihadist world will read his statement he uses the momentum to make it clear again….Bafghdadi: the Rejected, Mansour the chosen one) And he refers to Mansur as "Amir al-Mu'amin," the leader of the faithful -- the same honorific that has been adopted (C: Self declared) by Baghdadi.The Al-Qaeda chief vows that Al-Qaeda will help the Taliban in its struggle to establish a "caliphate" according to certain criteria. "We pledge allegiance to you to establish the Islamic caliphate that rises on the choice and preference of the Muslims, with the spreading of justice and consultation, realizing security, removing injustice and restoring rights, while raising the banner of jihad," Zawahri says, implying not only that the IS-declared "caliphate" has not fulfilled these criteria, but that it does not even exist. And if there is no "caliphate" in existence, then Baghdadi can hardly be the "caliph."

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The Al-Qaeda chief describes his pledge of allegiance to Mansur as a continuation of the "path of jihad" of Al-Qaeda's "just leaders," including Al-Qaeda in Iraq founder Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi and -- notably, since he led the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), the forerunner of IS -- his successor, Abu Hamza al-Muhajir (Abu Ayyub al-Masri). Baghdadi, who Zawahri considers to have departed from the Al-Qaeda path, is not mentioned.Zawahri goes on to vow that he will continue waging jihad until all Muslim lands, "from Kashgur [a predominantly Muslim Uyghur city in China] to Andalusia, and from the Caucasus to Somalia and Central Africa, and from Kashmir to Al-Quds (Jerusalem), and from the Philippines to Kabul and from Bakhara to Samarkand" are liberated. IS has made similar claims, and has even declared a "province" in the Caucasus, though in reality it does not control any territory there.

Good For Mullah Mansur? Zawahri's pledge of allegiance to Mullah Mansur could lend the new Taliban leader -- who has faced opposition from within the movement, including from his predecessor's family -- greater credibility, according to one Afghan intelligence official.But how much will the Al-Qaeda leader's support help Mansur? "Zawahri’s bay’ah will give some legitimacy to Mansur but not a lot," says Tore Hamming, an analyst on militant Islam at the Copenhagen-based MENA Analysis group. While some will see Al-Qaeda support as an indication that they should stick with the Taliban instead of shifting allegiance, for example to IS, Zawahri's bay’ah will also make it harder for opposing voices within the Taliban's Shura Council to pressure Mansur as he has been assessed and found to be the right leader by Al-Qaeda, Hamming told RFE/RL.

Bad For Al-Qaeda? While it may be good news for Mullah Mansur, Zawahri's bay'ah and declaration that the new Taliban chief is the "leader of the faithful" may not be such a positive move for Al-Qaeda. The pledge is not the first time that the Al-Qaeda leadership has emphasized its allegiance with the Taliban to criticize and invalidate IS and Baghdadi's appointment of himself as "caliph." Last summer, Al-Qaeda republished an old recording of a pledge of allegiance by the group's former leader, Osama bin Laden, to Mullah Omar, suggesting that Baghdadi broke away from Al-Qaeda and his pledge to the Taliban.But Zawahri's decision to pledge allegiance to Mullah Omar's successor was, at least in part, a decision likely borne out of lack of choice, amid its ongoing rivalry with IS and with Al-Qaeda's need to prove that Zawahri -- unlike Mullah Omar -- is still alive."Zawahri simply does not believe he or Al-Qaeda have sufficient legitimacy and a sufficiently strong power or support base at the moment" to make any other decision, says Hamming.The Al-Qaeda leader's only other choice would have been to pledge allegiance to his rival, Baghdadi, something that Zawahri would have found unthinkable.One major difficulty for Zawahri in pledging to Mansur is the recent -- and highly damaging -- revelation that the Taliban lied about Mullah Omar's death for two years, even issuing statements in his name.Beyond that, Mansur is not seen as a figure with particularly strong jihadi credentials, analysts say."An additional problem for Zawahri in pledging allegiance to Mullah Mansur is that Mansur has never presented himself as more than a politician," says Richard Barrett, senior vice president of The Soufan Group. "Unlike Mullah Omar, he has not wrapped the Prophet’s cloak around his shoulders or fiercely insisted on the Islamic mission of the Taliban." The claim by Mansur and Zawahri that the new Taliban leader is the "leader of the faithful" relies on Mullah Omar's credibility in that role rather than his own, Barrett told RFE/RL. (C: and that precisely what he is the commander of the Faithfull, needed for action and strategic maneuvering short to come over the horizon. Many of the analysts do not look forward.) Good For IS Zawahri's pledge to Mansur could be another boon for IS, however.Soon after the audio recording of Zawahri's bay'ah was released, online IS supporters moved to mock it, saying that the Al-Qaeda leader had effectively pledged bay'ah to the Pakistani intelligence service.IS has already been given a "gift" in the form of the sudden revelation in late July that the Taliban had covered up Mullah Omar's death for two years, analyst J.M. Berger told Business Insider.

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Unsurprisingly, Zawahri did not refer directly to the reports that Mullah Omar died in 2013 in Karachi, which -- as the Long War Journal's Thomas Jocelyn pointed out -- would mean that Al-Qaeda reaffirmed its loyalty to a corpse last July. The Al-Qaeda chief simply called Mullah Omar's death "our loss and the loss of the Muslim Ummah, the mujahedin (jihadi fighters), muhajireen (foreign jihadi fighters), and murabiteen (the sentinels)."The extent to which Zawahri's bay'ah will give IS a further boost over Al-Qaeda -- which senior jihadi ideologues say is on the verge of collapse as an idea and an organization -- remains to be seen.Mansur accepted Zawahri's pledge in a statement published on the Taliban's English-language website on August 14. But other key figures, including some of IS's most fiercest critics -- Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, Al-Qaeda's intellectual godfather, and Sheikh Abu Qatada al-Filistini, who has referred to IS as a "mafia group" -- have yet to react.

US administration undertakes policy review to determine which is larger threat – Al Qaida or the Islamic StateAug 5, Continuous threats from Al Qaida and the Islamic State have led the American Administration to undergo a policy review regarding these terrorist organizations. The evolving debate could lead to a shift regarding which of these terrorist organizations should be the major focus and where to allocate funds. The FBI, the Justice Department and the Department of Homeland Security are more concerned about the Islamic State, while the Pentagon, intelligence agencies and the National Counterterrorism Center, have their eyes set on Al Qaida.The question being posed is which of these Islamic Groups is more of a threat to the American homeland. However, there is no question that both of these groups are worrisome and the Administration is working to counter both of them. Al Qaida's branch in Yemen recently issued two threats against the United States. These communiques praised lone-wolf attacks and called for more of them against the West. CNN reported that Ibrahim al-Asiri, Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula's (AQAP) master bomb-maker, encouraged more attacks in a letter that said "We urge you to strike America in its own home and beyond." CNN was unable to verify that he is the author of the letter.A counterterrorism official in the United States said the letter was "consistent with rhetoric the new leader stated upon taking over al Qaida's most active affiliate that is known to threaten Western interests." According to Paul Cruickshank, a terrorism analyst at CNN, Asiri is "without question the most dangerous terrorist operative that the United States faces today," "Intelligence suggests that he is developing a new generation of explosive devices including a new generation of underwear and shoe bomb devices." Khalid Batarfi, an AQAP leader, issued the second threat in a video where he celebrated the July attack in Chattanooga, Tennessee, in which a gunman killed five American servicemen at a military base, as "a blessed Jihadi operation." Also praising two gunmen who tried to mount an attack in May in Garland, Texas.

The Debate Speaking at a conference in Aspen, Colorado, James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, said that "in terms of proximate threat, I would view ... AQAP -- even though they're kind of consumed right now with what's going on in Yemen with the Huthis -- as probably our most concerning al Qaida element in terms of threat to the homeland." Unlike Al Qaida, the Islamic State is extremely successful with its social media activity, controls territory, provides civil services and infrastructure for its population. Explaining why IS has been so effective, Michael E. Leiter, a former director of the National Counterterrorism Center said: “Al Qaida tried to be a movement and capture a more global imagination, and it largely failed; regional groups joined the A.Q. banner, but it never truly became a wholly decentralized movement IS has been more successful on this front, and this is why it is more dangerous, more difficult to identify adherents, and more challenging to combat.” Although as a whole the Obama Administration is leaning more towards to focusing on the Islamic State, Clapper emphasized the enormity of the threat from both of these terrorist organizations by explaining that “To say one is of greater magnitude than the other, at least for me, is hard.”

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Aug 16, Al-Qaida has released an audio communique that it claims was recorded by Hamza bin Laden, one of slain leader Osama bin Laden’s young sons. In the message, the younger bin Laden urges attacks on the US and its allies, like Israel, France, and the United Kingdom. This is probably the first time al-Qaida has presented Hamza bin Laden as an official member of the militant group. The alert called for increased training for volunteers and staff at Jewish institutions ahead of Rosh Hashanah, including establishing relationships with local law enforcement and reviewing communications and plans for responding to an active shooter. The dispatch, released on an al-Qaida website and shared by clandestine supporters on social media, calls upon followers in Kabul, Baghdad and Gaza to wage jihad, or holy war, on large Western cities like Washington, London, Paris, and Tel Aviv. The recording was made before June, but today’s release is thought to be in response to Islamic State’s strengthening support, which it is taking from al-Qaeda. Osama Bin Laden was killed by US special forces in 2011 in a raid on his compound in Abbotabad, Pakistan. The group has since been led by al-Qaeda’s former second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri.Hamza Bin Laden’s whereabouts are not known. He is believed to be in his mid-twenties.

Notorious Extremist Said to Head Al-Qaida West Africa Branch ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast — Aug 15, 2015, A militant group that has claimed responsibility for recent violence in Mali has rebranded itself as al-Qaida's West Africa branch while reaffirming that it is led by the notorious extremist Moktar Belmoktar. The SITE Intelligence Group, a U.S. monitoring outfit, said the latest statement from Belmoktar's Mourabitoune organization was distributed on Twitter this week. Belmoktar, who is known for daring attacks and for kidnapping foreigners, has been reported killed numerous times, most recently in June. In May he rejected a pledge of allegiance to the Islamic State group made by a different member of his organization. On Aug. 9 Mourabitoune reportedly claimed responsibility for an attack in central Mali that killed 10 soldiers and United Nations contractors along with three jihadists.

Aug 10, BAMAKO – A jihadi group is strongly suspected of carrying out the hotel siege in Mali that ended with the deaths of 13 people, including five U.N. workers, a security source said Sunday.The Malian government said four Malian soldiers, five U.N. workers and four “terrorists” were killed during the protracted siege at the Byblos Hotel in the central town of Sevare, which was finally brought to an end by security forces early Saturday. No one has claimed responsibility for the assault, which has coincided with a surge in jihadi attacks spreading through the region in recent months. “At this stage there is no formal proof that it was the Macina Liberation Front (FLM), but strong suspicions point to this group that has been seeking notoriety at all costs,” the source said.Since it first appeared earlier this year the FLM has claimed it was responsible for a number of attacks, including some targeting security forces in central Mali. FLM is considered to be linked to Ansar Dine — Arabic for Defenders of Faith — which is one of the groups that took control of Mali’s vast semi-arid north in April 2012. The United States placed Ansar Dine on its terror blacklist in 2013, accusing it of close links with al-Qaida and of torturing and killing opponents in the north. The private Mauritanian news agency Al-Akhbar, which regularly publishes jihadi statements, also said Sunday that the FLM “could be behind the attack in Sevare.”

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Aug 16, Earlier this month a map of all the tribes in Yemen showed the conflict was far more complex than we could've ever imagined. Yet there's one large force the map forgot to factor in, a force we've hardly heard about lately: al-Qaeda.  A map created by the Institute for United Conflicts Analysts is a stark reminder of the extremist group's presence. Despite tribal clashes throughout the country — rival factions of Houthi rebels pitted against exiled President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi's loyalists — al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains largely in control of central parts of the war-torn country. AQAP and its allies are represented in gray, pro-government forces brown, and Houthi supporters red.  Besides reports of US drone strikes in Yemen targeting al-Qaeda leaders, not much has been said about the militants lately. Al-Qaeda has attacked and explicitly come out against both Hadi and the Houthis — but we have yet to see how the group's stance will play out in the country's civil war.  Thursday's map reflects pro-government troops regaining key parts of southern territories, including the port city of Aden, while the capital Sanaa (the western spot in dark red) remains a Houthi stronghold. By Hayat Norimine

As the Yemen conflict rages on, the only side that appears to be winning are jihadists. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) had been beaten back by the northern Houthi rebels as they marched south, but due to the Saudi-led coalition's focus on attacking only Houthi forces, the group has recovered. AQAP is not the only group active in Yemen though; the Islamic State's Yemen branch (Wilayat al-Yemen or Yemen Province) has quickly emerged as a competitor. Wilayat Yemen has several sub-groups spread across the country, and has targeted Houthis and their supporters in the western portion of the country with the same brutal tactics as the larger Islamic State organization; for example, Wilayat al-Yemen members suicide bombed Shi'a mosques in the capital Sana'a. The group has not yet reached the same operational capacity as AQAP, but its growth is a serious concern for the stability of Yemen.

Analysis: Osama bin Laden’s son praises al Qaeda’s branches in new messageBY THOMAS JOSCELYN | August 17, 2015 | [email protected] | @thomasjoscelyn

This image appears throughout much of Hamzah bin Laden’s newly-released audio message. Hamzah’s face is not shown in the production.In the months leading up to his death in early May 2011, Osama bin Laden was worried about the fate

of his son Hamzah. Files recovered in the terror master’s Abbottabad compound show that he repeatedly discussed ways to prevent Hamzah from falling into the hands of al Qaeda’s enemies. Osama wanted his son to avoid Waziristan, where the drones buzzed overhead, at all costs. And he suggested that Hamzah flee to Qatar,

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where he could lie low for a time.Last week, more than four years after Osama’s death, al Qaeda released a lengthy audio message  by Hamzah.Osama’s son does not show his face in the al Qaeda production. This is most likely for security purposes. Most of the videos and pictures circulated online show Hamzah as a young boy, before he could possibly understand the true extent of his father’s mission. But it is clear from his new statement to the world that Hamzah has taken up his father’s business. Hamzah’s lengthy speech has been translated by the SITE Intelligence Group.

Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s emir, offers a brief introduction for Hamzah, describing him as “a lion from the den of [al Qaeda].” A screen shot of the still image used during Zawahiri’s speech can be seen on the right.Before turning over the mic to Hamzah, (C apparently this means for a time they might have or still are , be in the same location?) Zawahiri apparently alludes to the massacre at Charlie Hebdo’s offices in Paris in January. Zawahiri asks Allah to “reward our brothers in” al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) “for they have fulfilled his promise and healed the chests of the believers.” This language is a reference to al Qaeda’s current campaign against alleged blasphemers, who have supposedly wounded “believers” with their words and images. AQAP claimed responsibility for the Charlie Hebdo assault, saying it was carried out according to Zawahiri’s orders.Hamzah then begins to speak about current affairs. However, an Arabic transcript posted with the message indicates his audio was recorded in May or June of this year, meaning it is somewhat dated. Indeed, Hamzah praises Taliban emir Mullah Omar, saying he is the “hidden, pious sheikh” and “the firm mountain of jihad.” Hamzah asks Allah to “preserve” Omar, indicating that he thought the Taliban chieftain was alive when his audio was recorded.Hamzah also renews his bayat (oath of allegiance) to Omar.“From here, in following my father, may Allah have mercy on him, I renew my pledge of allegiance to Emir of the Believers Mullah Muhammad Omar, and I say to him: I pledge to you to listen and obey, in promoting virtue and waging jihad in the cause of Allah the Great and Almighty,” Hamzah says, according to SITE’s translation.According to some sources, including Afghan intelligence, Omar passed away in April 2013, or more than two years before the Taliban officially announced his death. If true, then this means that Hamzah and al Qaeda’s senior leadership reaffirmed their loyalty to a corpse. (C again its not significant to promise something to that you don’t know, its far more important what you do if you are informed, see Zawahiri latest pledges to Mansour, its we in the west that make a point out of it Zawahirir apparently not; That’s significant) It is possible that Omar did die in 2013 and al Qaeda somehow did not know this. Given al Qaeda’s close relationship with the Taliban’s new leadership, including Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, who served as Omar’s deputy and is now his successor, this would more than a little surprising. It is also possible that al Qaeda’s leaders knew Omar was dead and decided to pretend that he was alive for their own sake, as part of an attempt to unite the ranks in the jihadist community. Or, it could be the case that Omar finally perished more recently than the Afghan government and other sources have said. In any event, Hamzah clearly refers to Omar as if he was alive just a few months ago.While praising Zawahiri as a jihadist leader, Hamzah does not swear allegiance directly to him. (C read between the lines and start thinking over the horizon: “ Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s emir, offers a brief introduction for Hamzah, describing him as “a lion from the den of [al Qaeda].” ) This is different from the leaders of each regional branch of al Qaeda, all whom have sworn their fealty to Zawahiri.While al Qaeda’s branches respected Mullah Omar as the “Emir of the Faithful,” their loyalty has

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always been to al Qaeda’s overall emir, who, in turn, has pledged his allegiance to Omar. Zawahiri first pledged himself to Omar and, earlier this month, to Mansour. Therefore, al Qaeda’s regional operations are loyal to Mansour through Zawahiri.Hamzah honors the leader of each al Qaeda branch. He begins with Nasir al Wuhayshi, who led AQAP until he was killed in a US drone strike in June, just weeks after Hamzah’s recording session. Wuhayshi was succeeded by Qasim al Raymi, who quickly reaffirmed his own allegiance to Zawahiri. Interestingly, Hamzah refers to Wuhayshi as al Qaeda’s “deputy emir,” indicating that he held the same position that Zawahiri himself once did under Osama bin Laden.In addition to being the head of AQAP, Wuhayshi’s role as al Qaeda’s global general manager from 2013 onward has been widely reported. But under bin Laden that job was separate from the deputy emir’s slot. Al Qaeda’s general manager at the time of bin Laden’s death was Atiyah Abd al Rahman, who was subsequently killed in a US drone strike. Wuhayshi’s status as deputy emir of al Qaeda was never publicly announced by the group.

Osama’s heir continues with a roll call of other al Qaeda regional emirs, including al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s (AQIM) Abdulmalek Droukdel, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent’s (AQIS) Asim Umar, Shabaab’s Abu Obaidah Ahmed Omar, and Al Nusrah Front’s Abu Muhammad al Julani. Hamzah does not mention Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s al Qaeda offshoot, the Islamic State, but he clearly had Baghdadi’s men in mind when addressing Julani, whom he describes as the “bold commander.”“We thank your jihad, your firmness, and your great, unique sacrifices through which you have revived the feats of the ancestors of Islam,” Hamzah says to Julani, according to SITE. “But we were pained and saddened…due to the sedition that pervaded your field, and there is no power or strength but with Allah. We advise you to stay away as far as possible from this sedition.” Here, Hamzah is clearly referring to the infighting between the jihadists in Syria. The conflict has repeatedly

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pitted Julani’s Nusrah against Baghdadi’s Islamic State.A standard motif in al Qaeda’s productions is to call for influential and well-known jihadists to be freed from their imprisonment. Thus, Hamzah tips his hat to  Sheikh Omar Abdul Rahman (a.k.a. the “Blind Sheikh,” who is imprisoned in the US on terrorism charges), Sheikh Suleiman al Alwan (a famous al Qaeda-affiliated cleric detained in Saudi Arabia), and 9/11 planner Khalid Sheikh Muhammad (held by the US at Guantanamo. Hamzah spent a number of years in detention in Iran. And he calls for some of the al Qaeda leaders he was detained with there to be freed.“And from among my sheikhs through whose hands I was educated: Sheikh Ahmed Hassan Abu al Kheir, Sheikh Abu Muhammad al Masri, Sheikh Saif al Adl, and Sheikh Sulaiman Abu Ghaith, may Allah release them all,” Hamzah says. His mention of Saif al Adl, one of al Qaeda’s most senior military commanders, is especially intriguing. Hamzah indicates that al Adl is imprisoned. Various reports have claimed that al Adl was freed from Iranian custody, but his status at any given time has always been murky. Abu Ghaith, a former al Qaeda spokesman, is imprisoned in the US, but was also detained inside Iran for a time.Much of the rest of Hamzah’s talk is devoted to the supposed Zionist-Crusader alliance that al Qaeda has made the centerpiece of its mythology. Hamzah’s words contain echoes of his father’s speeches from nearly two decades ago, when al Qaeda’s founder first declared war on America and the West. Like his father, Hamzah calls for continued attacks in the West. And he encourages so-called “lone wolf” attackers to strike. “One operation from a loyal knight from your knights who chose his target and did well in his selection, and did his job and did well in his job, it would shake the policy of a great nation in a dire fashion,” Hamzah says. “So then, what would tens of operations do?”Towards the end of the video, al Qaeda includes footage of various protests from throughout the Middle East. The protesters, many of whom are young men, can be heard chanting, “Obama, Obama, We are all Osama!” (A screen shot of this video footage can be seen on the right.)Al Qaeda clearly hopes that Hamzah will help represent this new generation of al Qaeda followers.Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for The Long War Journal.

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