al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2015 part 19-138-caliphate- the state of...

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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-39-2

Nov 21, All able states should join the fight against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq and redouble efforts to prevent further attacks by the militant group, the United Nations Security Council has declared in a unanimous vote. The 15-member council adopted a resolution on Friday that was drafted by France after a series of deadly attacks in Paris killed 130 people and were claimed by Isis. “The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant constitutes a global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security,” said the resolution. The council resolution “calls upon member states that have the capacity to do so to take all necessary measures ... on the territory under the control of DAESH [ISIS]” It also urges states to intensify efforts to stem the flow of foreigners looking to fight with Isis in Iraq and Syria and to prevent and suppress financing of terrorism. “Welcome to everybody who finally woke up and joined the club of combating terrorists,” Syria’s UN ambassador, Bashar Ja’afari, told reporters before the vote on the French-drafted resolution.

In God We Thrust, or God is with us, it says on our money billets and coins, or at least it did. And so this is how Europe dies – obediently, collectively. The Muslims enter, wild and uncontrolled, individuality as a suicide bomb, caring not for exalted systems. Burn it; Europeans can't grasp the euro disobeyed. More – Europe can't grasp dying for God, while Islamists lust for it. The "self-evident truth" of Euro-supremacy is the talisman hope held aloft. With absolute certainty, they know that this conceit will eventually overpower the hostility of otherworldly Islam. Sooner or later, they think, the Muslims will figure out that a highly paid job at Bosch with state health care, state college education, state direction for your life, unlimited access to state-approved hookers, state certification and training for your every impetus – that this will somehow be honey so compelling that all these little passions about Islam will leave the head, and drugged up drones will trot off to precision assembly training. Muslims believe in force – they make babies, they make war, they make demands, and they use whatever violence they have to weaponized all those things. Europe's divorce from force, its debt bubble now lived in, is coming due. Europeans have held that it is beneath them to engage in war – far better to just wait for self-evident liberalism to diffuse into the minds of all! Victory of superior economics is inevitable! And the Muslims, who hold very contradictory ideas and very poorly constructed societies, nevertheless relish the first-order law of the jungle: he who can force his will on the other guy wins. Europe is unaware that it is losing because victory is an axiom, not a verb. Europe is trying to "place the

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

CdW Intelligence to Rent of 21 02/05/2023

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French attacks in context." It is not trying, with alarm, to confront, root out, and destroy the terroristic invasion of an enemy power with war. But Islam is invading by force, not by the bond market. Islam finds it a matter of weakness and contempt that the Europeans respond to jihad with a pursed brow and welfare checks, as though being conquered were so improbable it can't even be discussed. So when your superior civilization won't fight, won't reproduce itself, and won't recognize that it is under attack – because the attacker is so inferior – the "superior" civilization has condemned itself to annihilation. Subsidized minarets! Babylon, Rome, many others fell because they scoffed at the pathetic inferiority of their attackers. They congratulated themselves that "we are the people, and wisdom will die with us." But believed infallibility produces only negligence -i.

"We are in a battle, and more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media. And we are in a media battle in a race for the hearts and minds of our Umma." The individual was Aymen al-Zawahiri, Ten years ago.

The vast majority of DAESH’s victims have been Muslims, not Europeans, who have had nothing to do with western foreign policymaking.

French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve has said European countries must "wake up" to terror threats, following the attacks in Paris that left 129 people dead.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said, “This is a terrorist group and not a state. . . the term Islamic State blurs the lines between Islam, Muslims, and Islamists.”

At least 4 of the 8 terrorists involved in the latest Paris attacks had travelled to Syria to fight for ISIS. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said that the attack was “organized, conceived and planned” from Syria

London Ken Livingstone: “All these terrorist attacks, the statements they make on their websites and so on are all about foreign policy.”

Did DAESH really, although claims made, conducted all these attacks, or are they claiming everything they can use as propaganda?

DAESH doesn’t attack targets in revenge, it attacks as a strategy to cause chaos, instill fear, and attract recruits. It merely uses revenge, or perversions of Quranic literature, as thin justification. Its long-term goal is to submit the entire world to its ideology, and build a global Caliphate based on its interpretation of Islam.

DAESH predicted (as Al Qaeda did years before in their seven Phased Plan) that, within five years, DAESH would capture and unite large tracts of land, including all of (largely Hindu) India and Central Asia.





We can disagree over the extent to which US foreign policy caused the initial chaos that led to DAESH. We can even disagree on what is the best way to confront Islamic State (I favor an Arab-led force, as opposed to more Western boots on the ground). But there should be no confusion about DAESH’s ambitions. The ultimate aim, according to its own statements and publications, is global conquest through war. The idea that we can avoid conflict if we mind our own business is utterly naive.

President Obama, who proclaimed the day before the Paris attacks that the Islamic State was “contained,” needs to reassess his slow motion, half-hearted, incremental response to what he once derided as a “J.V. team” of terrorists.

In the end, the organization’s (DAESH) fate will probably be similar to that of other jihadi “states,” all of which crumbled. Yet these states did not fail because of poor governance or excessive brutality, but rather because they attracted powerful and determined foreign enemies.

Who is best placed to fill the void?

Their; DAESH propaganda machine.

Western Political leaders, journalist, Press and even the United Nations in their resolutions contribute willingly or unintentional to Propaganda and claims made by them – as most of the incidents are still under investigation and hard evidence still failing - game played by what is called of IS; “The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL); also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS, the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham, or simply Islamic State (IS) is a Wahhabi/Salafi jihadist extremist militant group, self-proclaimed to be a caliphate and Islamic state. One of the biggest questions within the global jihadi landscape, as well as the scholarly community that studies it, regards the status of the broader conflict between al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Ten years ago, an individual once said: "We are in a battle, and more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media. And we are in a media battle in a race for the hearts and minds of our Umma." The individual was Aymen al-Zawahiri, then deputy to Osama bin Laden, and the quote is taken from a castigation of then leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

It seems as though every atrocity committed against the West by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (DAESH) is followed by claims in the media that such attacks are the result of our military action against them. The former mayor of London Ken Livingstone told the BBC: “All these terrorist attacks, the statements they make on their websites and so on are all about foreign





policy.” He added that the French-led military intervention against the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was “coming back to haunt [it].”

This attitude isn’t isolated. Not long after the Paris attacks, Stop the War Coalition, which organized the million-plus march in London against the war in Iraq in 2003, tweeted an article claiming Paris “reaped the whirlwind of Western extremism.” It was hastily deleted. Writing for Salon, foreign-affairs columnist Patrick L. Smith opined, “We brought this on ourselves,” while in The Guardian the Al Jazeera English presenter Mehdi Hasan suggested that the Paris attacks were the result of geopolitical blowback.

Claiming that terror attacks such as those that shook Paris on Nov. 13, are a “blowback” isn’t just offensive to its (mainly Muslim) victims—it misreads the very nature of DAESH. It amounts to an excusal of the terrorist group’s intentions, as if to say that IDAESH would not have done any of this if the US, UK, France, and company weren’t so meddlesome. This is a convenient tale, which is told to push a non-interventionist foreign policy, but it doesn’t reflect reality.

Yes, DAESH did grow out of chaos that sprung from the US invasion of Iraq. It would be foolish to pretend otherwise. But that is not the whole picture. Chalking recent DAESH activity to blowback or revenge is an attempt to divert a sociological debate onto foreign policy, when we need to talk about how we break DAESH’s pull within Europe and the Middle East. For a start, DAESH grew out of the chaos in Syria, which was the result of a popular uprising against its dictator, Assad, as the Arab Spring spread across the Middle East and North Africa. Its earliest recruits were motivated by different reasons, including a desire to remove Assad from power and end the civil war. But just as many were simply looking for an excuse to exercise religious fundamentalisms that predate both the conflict in Syria and the Iraq War. DAESH is hardly reacting solely to Western aggression. For why then would the vast majority of its victims be practicing Muslims? Before the Paris attacks, Beirut was struck by a double-suicide attack, killing over 40 people. DAESH took responsibility for that. DAESH-claimed terror attacks have also hit a peace rally in the Turkish capital of Ankara in October, a beach resort in Tunisia in June, a mosque in Yemen in March (killing over 130), and a hotel in Libya in January. Are the foreign policies of all those countries to blame too? How did they provoke the ire of DAESH?

BBC Security Correspondent Frank Gardner has been speaking about Abaaoud's death on BBC World News: I wish they had caught him alive and





would force him to stand trial for the appalling things he's alleged to have done. But he has gone out the way he would have wanted to go and this will be seen by so-called Islamic State as a martyr's death. An operator such as him, who has both the capability and intent to commit mass murder, is extremely dangerous, so it is some relief that he is off the streets.

BBC Paris Correspondent Hugh Schofield writes: The news is a breakthrough, because Abaaoud is regarded as an individual of great importance in so-called Islamic State - a man responsible for organising not just Friday's attacks, but also others such as the Thalys train attack two months ago. He is believed to have been a close friend of Salah Abdeslam, the eighth gunman who is still on the run. However identifying Abaaoud also raised serious questions. The man was high on French and Belgian wanted lists, and yet managed to travel from Syria to the heart of Paris without ever leaving a trace.

BBC Monitoring have been looking at what Arabic-language newspapers are saying in the aftermath of the Paris attacks...

Middle East Arabic dailies are continuing to discuss the wider repercussions of the Paris attacks, including on the image of Islam. Several papers say the real causes behind the emergence of so-called Islamic State include poverty, unemployment and "repressive" governments.

UAE paper Al-Bayan says in an editorial that Islam is being "hurt in its core" and turned into "an image of no life, violence, killing and destruction".

Jordanian paper Al-Ra'i carries an article by the country's Mufti, Abd-al-Karim al-Khasawnah, who writes: "The extremists have offended Islam and Muslims with their cruel behaviours, their harsh attitudes and radical ideology."

A commentary in Egyptian state-owned Al-Ahram calls on Al-Azhar, the most prestigious Sunni Islam institute, to help in facing up to "the terrorist foray" and to address young French people on how "Islam is being dragged into crimes it does not approve". Other publications suggest the fight against terrorism should not use exclusively military tools, but should also seek to uproot the causes of hatred and spread a culture of art and creativity.

Comment. In non of the above a full and clear and present statement that they; Muslim Ummah deplore to recent attacks, let alone Ummah members going out in masses to the streets and shouting that this should stop an all to familiar patters noticed over the years. As I wrote earlier, I’m deafened by the silence..





Niall Ferguson: Here is how Edward Gibbon described the Goths’ sack of Rome in August 410 AD: “In the hour of savage license, when every passion was inflamed, and every restraint was removed . . . a cruel slaughter was made of the Romans; and . . . the streets of the city were filled with dead bodies . . . Whenever the Barbarians were provoked by opposition, they extended the promiscuous massacre to the feeble, the innocent, and the helpless . . .”

US Democrat on the Intelligence Committee Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) -ii pushed back against President Barack Obama for his suggestion that DAESH was contained, Feinstein said, “Well, let me begin by saying this. I have never been more concerned. I read the intelligence faithfully. DAESH is not contained. DAESH is expanding. They just put out a video saying it is their intent to attack this country. I think we have to be prepared. I think hopefully France will go for a chapter 5 which will bring NATO into it. “Look, ISIS (claimed) took down a major aircraft, 224 people. It had a major attack in Beirut, 40 people killed. It had a major attack in France, numbers killed and wounded. And this is just in the last month. They are on the march. There’s a video now saying that they are authorizing attacks in our country. So I think they are on a march. I think we have to recognize this. I think we have to work to see that we have a broken passport system. We’ve got 45 million stolen passports floating around. We’ve got international travel documents floating around. We have a visa waiver program that allows somebody if they come back from Syria to France to come into this country. All of these things have to be explored and changed. It has to be done quickly. ”

ISIS or DAESH. The groups who are killing civilians, raping and forcing captured women into sexual slavery , and beheading foreigners in Iraq and Syria are known by several names: the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS; the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, or ISIL; and, more recently, the Islamic State, or IS. French officials recently declared that that country would stop using any of those names and instead refer to the group as “DAESH.” Whether referred to as ISIS, ISIL, or IS, all three names reflect aspirations that the United States and its allies unequivocally reject. Political and religious leaders all over the world have noted this. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said, “This is a terrorist group and not a state. . . the term Islamic State blurs the lines between Islam, Muslims, and Islamists.”

Moreover did DAESH really, although claims made, conducted all these attacks, or are the claiming everything they can use as





propaganda? The vast majority of DAESH’s victims have been Muslims, not

Europeans, who have had nothing to do with western foreign policymaking.

The idea that DAESH is chiefly motivated by Western provocation further falls apart when we remember the fate of the Yazidis—an Iraqi ethnic group that has suffered horribly for the mere crime of existing the way they do. The Yazidis were attacked and killed in such a ferocious manner that many have called it genocide; and thousands of Yazidi women were abducted, killed, raped, or forced into sexual slavery. None of that could conceivably be called “blowback” for Western foreign-policy fumbles. Similarly, DAESH has executed, persecuted, and imprisoned people from other minorities, including Christians and Shia Muslims across the territory it influences. It has also garnered pledges of allegiance from Boko Haram in Nigeria, responsible for killing and abducting thousands of innocents. DAESH has also declared war on India—another country with no history of military intervention in the Middle East. The vast majority of DAESH’s victims have been Muslims, not Europeans, who have had nothing to do with western foreign policymaking. This isn’t by accident, but by design: the Islamic State’s main aim is to conquer all territory in the Middle East and “unite” Muslims under its banner. It is happy to do so through the infliction of terror, rather than winning hearts and minds. And these political aspirations exist with or without the orchestrations of Washington, London, or Paris.

Let me state the obvious: DAESH doesn’t attack targets in revenge, it attacks as a strategy to cause chaos, instill fear, and attract recruits. It merely uses revenge, or perversions of Quranic literature, as thin justification. Its long-term goal is to submit the entire world to its ideology, and build a global Caliphate based on its interpretation of Islam. And that isn’t my own interpretation. DAESH’s own magazine, Dabiq, repeatedly predicts a global clash between its own khilafah (caliphate) and the West. In its inaugural issue, Dabiq carried extensive excerpts from the musings of DAESH’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who claimed he was the global leader of all Muslims and would unite them (forcibly, if necessary) in one land. It predicted that, within five years, DAESH would capture and unite large tracts of land, including all of (largely Hindu) India and Central Asia. DAESH’s designs are not a reaction to imperialism. They are a mimicry of it.

We can disagree over the extent to which US foreign policy caused the initial chaos that led to DAESH. We can even disagree on what is the best way to confront Islamic State (I favor an Arab-led force, as





opposed to more Western boots on the ground). But there should be no confusion about DAESH’s ambitions. The ultimate aim, according to its own statements and publications, is global conquest through war. The idea that we can avoid conflict if we mind our own business is utterly naive.

An Evolving ISIS Strategy - iii ?At least 4 of the 8 terrorists involved in the latest Paris attacks had travelled to Syria to fight for ISIS. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said that the attack was “organized, conceived and planned” from Syria. The involvement of battle-hardened foreign fighters, as opposed to amateurish “stray dogs”, marks an escalation of the evolving threat posed by the Islamic State. The militarized nature of the operation resembled the simultaneous attacks on multiple soft targets that killed 164 people and wounded hundreds more in Mumbai, India in 2008. The Mumbai terror attack, perpetrated by Lashkar-e-Taiba (“Army of the Righteous”), a Pakistani-supported Islamist terrorist group, has provided a template for low-cost, low-tech military assaults capable of inflicting maximum shock value. Al-Qaeda’s Somali affiliate, al-Shabaab, mounted a similar terrorist attack that killed 67 people in the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenya in 2013.The growing list of terrorist attacks mounted by the Islamic State is a sign that it is evolving fast and metastasizing. It is now using repatriated foreign fighters supported by homegrown terrorist networks to launch terrorist attacks inside Western countries. CIA Director John Brennan warned on that “I certainly would not consider it a one-off event. It’s clear to me that DAESH has an external agenda, that they are determined to carry out these types of attacks. I would anticipate that this is not the only operation that DAESH has in the pipeline.” That same day, ISIS threatened to launch a similar attack against Washington. This is nothing new. Islamic State leader al-Baghdadi threatened to strike “in the heart” of America in July 2012. The Islamic State reportedly has tried to recruit Americans who have joined the fighting in Syria and would be in a position to carry out this threat after returning to the United States.

Although ISIS has not yet launched a major attack inside the United States, it has inspired isolated terrorist attacks by self-radicalized “stray dogs” who have acted in its name, such as the May 3, 2015, foiled attack by two Islamist extremists who were fatally shot by police before they could commit mass murder in Garland, Texas. ISIS later claimed responsibility for that attack and warned “future attacks are going to be harsher and worse.” President Obama, who proclaimed the day before the Paris attacks that the Islamic State was “contained,” needs to reassess his slow motion, half-hearted, incremental





response to what he once derided as a “J.V. team” of terrorists. The Paris terrorists are harbingers of a new generation of terrorists operating more brazenly against a wider set of soft targets than in the past. The next attack could come in an American city unless the Obama Administration drops its passive complacency and takes much stronger action against the Islamic State.

Likely reasoning for “claiming all attacks;” The Islamic State needs new recruits.Recent counterterrorism efforts have hurt the Islamic State. For example the United States has increased airstrikes against Islamic State-controlled oil production and refineries. In addition, as more Syrians since Russian airstrikes began, there are fewer civilians who could become radicalized and join the Islamic State. Because membership is the primary resource of any terrorist organization, it’s no surprise that the Islamic State has released several videos criticizing those who flee to the ‘infidel’ and ‘xenophobic’ Europe. If the Islamic State needs new recruits, attacking France is attractive. France is already a leading exporter of volunteers for the Islamic State. As of April 2015 there were an estimated 1,550 French fighters in Iraq and Syria. And France is also deeply involved in counterterrorism, having led airstrikes against the Islamic State since late September. Terror attacks by the Islamic State are only likely to provoke further airstrikes and counterterrorism efforts — as last week’s attack already has. The more France retaliates, the easier it may be for the Islamic State to mobilize new recruits. Violent counterterrorism radicalizes moderates and produces calls for vengeance that militant groups exploit to recruit supporters. This is why al-Qaeda recognized mobilization as “the dividing line between success and failure” and the Islamic State shares this view.

Mali hotel 'attacked by gunmen' in Bamako, Nov 20, Gunmen have launched an attack on the Radisson Blu Hotel in the centre of Mali's capital, "Apparently it's an attempt to take hostages. The police are there and are sealing off the area," a security source told Reuters news agency. In August, suspected Islamist gunmen killed 13 people, including five UN workers, during a hostage siege at a hotel in the central Malian town of Sevare. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its affiliate al-Murabitoun, which is led by Algerian militant Mokhtar Belmokhtar, have claimed joint responsibility for the attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Mali's capital, Bamako, the Mauritanian news agency Al-Akhbar reported.

The Islamic State (IS) militant group says it has killed two hostages - a Norwegian and a Chinese citizen. DAESH gave no details about when or





where Ole-Johan Grimsgaard-Ofstad, 48, from Norway and Fan Jinghui, 50, from China were killed. It had demanded ransoms from their countries. IS Dabiq magazine published what it said were photographs of the men, alive and dead. They appeared to have been shot.

Fear factor: What is new are the ways of operating; the ways of attacking and

killing are evolving all the time. The macabre imagination of those giving the orders is unlimited. Assault rifles, beheadings, suicide bombers, knives or all of these at once. Carried out by individuals or commandos this time, particularly well organised. And today we must not rule anything out and I say of course with all the precautions which can be taken we know and we have to bear in mind there is always the risk of chemical weapons or bacterial weapons"- Manuel Valls, French Prime Minister

Bombs and Suicide Vests tactics introduced in Theatre Europe.

Security and intelligence experts had already said that the suicide vests used by the Paris attackers were made by a highly skilled professional, who could still be at large in Europe. Seven of the jihadis who died in the attacks wore identical explosive vests and did not hesitate to blow themselves up. And unlike the attacks in London in 2005 where the bombers' explosives were stored in backpacks, Friday's assailants used the sort of suicide vests normally associated with bombings in the Middle East. A former French intelligence chief told the AFP news agency: 'Suicide vests require a munitions specialist. To make a reliable and effective explosive is not something anyone can do. 'A munitions specialist is someone who is used to handling explosives, who knows how to make them, to arrange them in a way that the belt or vest is not so unwieldy that the person can't move. 'And it must also not blow up by accident.' The suspected bomb-maker explosives expert behind the Paris atrocitiy has handed himself in to police, Nov 18, it is claimed. Mohamed Khoualed is accused of supplying the suicide vests and detonators to the bombers. The 19-year-old turned himself in to police in the northern city of Lille on Wednesday evening, France3 regional TV station reported.

The other day French police continued to negotiate with Hasna Aitboulahcen, the peroxide-blonde 26-year-old would-be jihadist, until she detonated herself with a force so powerful it blew her head off and into the street, an amateur recording and a police account revealed. Eyewitnesses said Aitboulahcen appeared at the window, shouting, “Help me! Help me!” during the gun





battle with the jihadists, in which the police expended an estimated 5,000 rounds. It was unclear whether this cry was a trap or a genuine plea for help. When police told the woman to stay still, she quickly disappeared inside the flat. Female suicide bombers from the Caucasus, known as the Black Widows, have targeted Russian civilians and security personnel in multiple attacks over the past decade. In the Russian media, the term "Black Widow" has been applied to all female suicide bomber regardless of ethnicity and there are other groups bearing the monika "Black Widows." In 2012 a Black Widow suicide bomber carried out an attack in Dagestan that killed a moderate Sufi cleric and six other people. The attack was the third in two months against prominent Muslim clerics who were working to promote moderate versions of Islam in Russia. The attacker, a convert to Islam whose current husband as well as two previous husbands were Islamist militants, was the first known ethnic Russian female to become a suicide bomber. They are called black widows because they have usually lost their husbands, brothers or close relatives in one of the two Chechen wars that Russia fought against Islamist rebels since 1994 or…Black Widows - also known as Chyornyye Vdovy, Black Widow Brigade, Junsui, The Sisterhood is an active group formed c. 2000.

"We are in a battle, and more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media. And we are in a media battle in a race for the hearts and minds of our Ummah." The individual was Aymen al-Zawahiri.

Smoke and Mirrors: Islamic State’s Propaganda Strategy (in Algeria)With its physical network in Algeria decimated, the Islamic State has turned to its propaganda machine to help reestablish itself in the country. In particular, the group has exploited social media and other platforms to create the illusion that militants in Algeria are defecting from AQIM and flocking to the Islamic State in droves. According to their logic, if the Islamic State can foster the perception that it is ascendant and AQIM is internally factious, it can persuade Algerian jihadists to defect from AQIM. Thus, the Islamic State’s strategy is designed to turn the myth of momentum into a reality. This is an approach that the organization has also implemented in other areas where it is seeking to expand, including Afghanistan and Somalia.The primary means by which the Islamic State has sought to cultivate momentum in Algeria is by publicizing pledges of allegiance that Algerian jihadists have made. Four jihadist groups have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State since Jund al-Khilafah did so, with some of the pledges timed to maximize the attention they receive. The first pledge of allegiance that the Islamic State received in 2015 came in May from a group of fighters in





Skikda Province, in eastern Algeria. [1] The pledge, which was issued via audio statement, provided little information on the members of the Skikda faction, aside from the fact that they had previously been aligned with AQIM. The next pledge of allegiance came in late July, when militants claiming to be part of AQIM’s al-Ghuraba Brigade, which operates in the vicinity of the eastern Algerian city of Constantine, announced their defection to the Islamic State in an audio statement and called upon other AQIM members to join the other group as well. [2] In early August, Islamic State militants from Iraq’s Saladin Province released a video praising the al-Ghuraba militants, thereby drawing further attention to the defection. [3]The Islamic State’s next moves in Algeria further showed how the group manipulates social media to inflate its presence and create the perception of discord within rival jihadist organizations. On September 3, Islamic State Twitter supporters released a video of the al-Ghuraba cell’s pledge of allegiance (only an audio statement had been released when the group initially pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in July). The next day, militants claiming to be from AQIM’s al-Ansar Brigade, which operates in central Algeria, released an audio statement announcing their defection. [4] The re-release of the al-Ghuraba militants’ pledge of allegiance appears to have been strategically timed to coincide with the pledge from the al-Ansar Brigade, creating the illusion that AQIM militants were defecting to the Islamic State en masse. Approximately two weeks after the pledge of allegiance from the al-Ansar militants, Humat al-Da’wah al-Salafiyah, a low profile Algerian jihadist group that had joined AQIM in 2013, announced that it too was pledging allegiance to the Islamic State (SITE, September 22). The organization’s social media operatives immediately sought to publicize the defections; one prolific pro-Islamic State Twitter account remarked that a new group was defecting from AQIM to the Islamic State every day, while another Twitter supporter claimed that AQIM was fracturing as a result of Islamic State pressure. [5] [6]Despite the Islamic State’s efforts to foment unrest within AQIM, the group has been unsuccessful in turning the impression of strength into a reality. None of the four groups that have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in Algeria in 2015 have carried out an attack since joining. Indeed, there is reason to believe that some of these groups comprise fewer than a dozen militants; one news report claimed that the al-Ghuraba and Skikda cells had been inactive for several years, and also noted that the al-Ghuraba cell consisted of no more than ten fighters (al-Arabi al-Jadeed [London], July 27). The situation has become so grim for the Islamic State in Algeria that the group itself has acknowledged its struggles. On October 21, the Islamic State’s Wilayat al-Jazair released an audio statement in which a militant reassured jihadists that the group’s presence in Algeria was sustainable, and





urged Islamic State fighters in Algeria not to risk their lives unnecessarily, fearing a repeat of Jund al-Khilafah’s collapse. [7] That the Islamic State, a group that endlessly parades its victories and conceals its defeats, felt the need to reassure its supporters in Algeria that it was still relevant reveals the organization’s bleak prospects in the country.

If at First You Don’t Succeed, Try Deception. Since announcing the establishment of the caliphate in June 2014, the Islamic State has broadcast its successes in expanding into new territories outside of Syria and Iraq, aiming to create the perception that it is growing rapidly throughout the Muslim world, and steadily chipping away at al-Qaeda’s position as the preeminent global jihadist organization. But contrary to the former’s claims, the group’s expansion efforts have often been fraught with setbacks. In some theaters, the Islamic State has confronted more powerful jihadist organizations, many of them al-Qaeda affiliates, who have resisted efforts to sow internal discord and inspire defections. The Islamic State has also run up against state security forces that have sought to eliminate affiliated groups before they can gain a foothold. To date, however, the Islamic State’s expansion struggles have often gone relatively unnoticed, as the group has effectively masked its weaknesses and projected an image of strength through its propaganda.

ISIS’s/DAESH Claim Shows How Group Is Expanding Targets. (Claim Shows: Press jumping to unconfirmed conclusion)

Members of DAESH taking cues to strike soft civilian targets far beyond its bases in Syria, Iraq. Islamic State’s claim of responsibility Saturday for the Paris Nov 13 terror attacks is the latest indication of how members of the group are taking cues to strike soft civilian targets far beyond its bases in Syria and Iraq. The claim—published in Arabic, English and French to Twitter and Telegram accounts affiliated with the group—warned that the attacks were the “first of the storm,” targeting the “capital of prostitution and obscenity.” The attacks highlight how Islamic State is tapping into its diffuse network of militant cells to ensure that its brand of terror—suicide bombings and the spray of gunfire—extends beyond the territory it controls, from the touristy beaches of Tunisia to the streets of Paris. Analysts and intelligence officials say it is increasingly clear the assaults aren’t necessarily coordinated from the group’s central command, making them particularly difficult to thwart and deter. “They are not just projecting terror and power in their local insurgencies,” said Mokhtar Awad, a terrorism analyst at The Center for American progress. “Now they are projecting power by proxy in European and regional countries.” In the most recent incident of mass violence claimed





far from central command, an Egyptian affiliate of Islamic State took responsibility for the downing of a Russian passenger jet over the Sinai Peninsula, an assertion that has increasingly gained credibility as the U.K. and Russia lean toward the theory that a bomb caused the disaster. The claim marked a departure in Islamic State’s terror operations in the country. Instead of targeting Egyptian security personnel as it has in repeated attacks, the affiliate, Sinai Province, said it had targeted Russian civilians in response to their government’s military involvement in Syria.

Friday Nov 13 attacks in Paris confirmed what French security services have feared for months: that there would be another devastating attack like the one that left 17 dead in January. In an audio message released in Sept. 2014, Islamic State spokesman Abu Muhammad Al-Adnani urged followers to launch attacks “wherever you may be.” In that recording, Mr. Al-Adnani called upon followers to use any method available to kill people in Western and Arab countries. Mr. Al-Adnani’s missive, which singled out “the spiteful and filthy French,” called on those who had pledged allegiance to Islamic State to kill civilians, law enforcement officers and military personnel in Western countries that have joined the U.S.-led campaign against Islamic State. The Islamic State Twitter statement Saturday said France would know the “smell of death” as long as it continued military activities against Islamic State in its self-declared Caliphate, which stretches across Syria and Iraq. It implied that others involved in fighting the group could be at risk of retribution. “Let France and those who walk in its path know that they will remain on the top of the list of targets of the Islamic State,“ it said. Friday’s attacks were a ”warning to those who wish to learn.”

The Rise Of ISIS: ‘Remaining and Expanding’ -iv?

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was an indispensable force in the formation and leadership of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the predecessor to ISIS, and he continues to influence those faithful to his vision and tactics long after his 2006 death in a U.S. airstrike. Through charisma and shocking displays of violence, he brought together disaffected former Baathists and radical Islamists to start an effective insurgency against the U.S. occupation in Iraq. When he tried to join al-Qaeda in Afghanistan following his early release in 1999, Osama bin Laden considered him too radical for the group.Indeed, Zarqawi had significant differences with bin Laden regarding al-Qaeda’s objectives and strategy. Zarqawi had no interest in appealing to all Muslims. When planning his strategy in Iraq, he saw an opportunity to garner Sunni support by exploiting sectarian tensions and creating a firestorm. His





recruitment efforts were aided when Colin Powell mistakenly cited him as a link between al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein, earning him fame and followers.Zarqawi’s first targets in Iraq were embassies, the UN, NGOs, and Shiite leaders, with the aim of isolating each party and forcing the United States to stand in the middle of the resultant sectarian war. His goal was not to liberate Iraq but to push Sunnis into creating a theocratic state. He dismissed claims from al-Qaeda leaders and elsewhere that Sunnis were not ready for their own state.

While al-Qaeda focused on Islam’s far enemy, Zarqawi aimed for the near enemy — local states and rulers — with the goal of reestablishing the Caliphate by garnering large-scale Sunni support. Eight years after Zarqawi’s death, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi publicly declared the fulfillment of this goal in a Mosul mosque, and his announcement paid tribute to Zarqawi, not bin Laden.

As for the potential emergence of a Sunni “Awakening” that could challenge its hold on territory, ISIS is cognizant of the threat and broadcasts harsh punishments as a deterrent against would-be conspirators.

While Zarqawi lacked a sophisticated political vision, other theorists provided a framework for his state-building project. In 2004, an al-Qaeda member wrote Management of Savagery, a blueprint for creating a theocratic state. It detailed how jihadis should exploit existing security vacuums or create their own by attacking sensitive state infrastructure. Once the state receded in order to consolidate and regroup, jihadis could enter the vacuum to provide social services and security. These jihadi-governed spaces could then network with each other and establish a state. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s 2014 declaration of a caliphate was the first such plausible claim since the fall of the Ottoman Empire.

The key to this strategy is attracting local Sunni support — an issue that proved to be a crucial difference between al-Qaeda and Zarqawi’s AQI. The central leadership considered winning hearts and minds necessary to bolstering their political program, while Zarqawi believed in acting with clear purpose, precision, and violence to either gain Sunni support or force Sunni submission to his objectives. Al-Qaeda advised against this hurried approach to state building — Zarqawi’s tactics angered Sunni tribes and rebel groups, and their discontent was empowered and channeled by the U.S. military presence in Iraq, which led to the undoing of the first Islamic State project in 2008-2009. By then, the movement had been degraded from a viable





insurgency to a clandestine terrorist organization.

After this setback, however, al-Qaeda affiliates adopted the ISIS flag and state-building project in spaces where the Iraqi state was collapsing or absent.

In the end, the organization’s fate will probably be similar to that of other jihadi “states,” all of which crumbled. Yet these states did not fail because of poor governance or excessive brutality, but rather because they attracted powerful and determined foreign enemies. While ISIS has made many enemies in Iraq and Syria, most of them are currently focused on other priorities. And although its continued efforts to conquer all Muslim lands will earn it further enemies, the ongoing unrest in the region and the lack of will among those who would oppose it may allow ISIS to spread. The group does acknowledge certain limits, however — it knows it cannot advance toward Mecca or Jerusalem at present.

ISIS has a pattern for expanding, developing, and consolidating power. While this was initially an ad hoc process, it is now conducted systematically, and this bureaucratization allows ISIS to act consistently across different provinces and between core and periphery territories. While some steps occur simultaneously, it is mostly a linear progression: intelligence operations, followed by military operations, dawa (missionary) activities, hisba activities (moral policing and consumer protection), and governance.The intelligence phase includes arranging sleeper cells and infiltrating different groups. In territories like the Sinai, Libya, and Syria, ISIS does not start from scratch, instead incorporating existing jihadi networks under its flag, allowing the group to quickly learn the local terrain. ISIS then employs asymmetric militant tactics such as hit-and-run attacks and car bombs. “Missionary” activities — including propaganda viewing parties and the distribution of electronic ID cards — allow the group to inform its subject populations, guide public discourse, and unify its cadres. Public relations offices are established to bring feuding parties together and handle arbitration, while hisba activities include burning banned items and non-Sunni religious symbols. ISIS then introduces taxes, greater regulation, and social services. Currently, the group’s largest source of revenue is confiscated property, but this is unsustainable in the long term. ISIS lacks full control in most areas, but it is working to achieve a level of normalcy throughout its territory. (It is Al Qaeda who is adopting this strategy not DAESH) Black flags are ubiquitous, some areas have been renamed, and public works projects show that the group is providing for the local population. It has also restarted many industries such as water treatment, agriculture, and commodity production.





ISIS authorities have remained vigilant against the dangers of potential “Awakenings,” suppressing three so far in Iraq, Libya, and Deir al-Zour, Syria. They strictly monitor the Internet and media, and after establishing control in an area, they conduct reeducation programs for local leaders and citizens. They also use entrapment to root out opposition. While some individuals in ISIS-controlled territory adhere to the group’s cause, others remain silent solely to stay alive. Once the group is entrenched, it is difficult to deracinate, though its control is less firm in Syria than in Iraq. The only territories ISIS has forfeited are those where it never established full control.Finally, while ISIS has a near-enemy focus at the moment, it could eventually use its territory as a safe haven to launch a large-scale foreign terrorist operation similar to the September 11 attacks, with the goal of gaining followers and assuming al-Qaeda’s mantle

Or will it be the other way around: DAESH falling apart over time and Al Qaeda filling the void?

Assessment. While still unclear if DAESH is responsible for all they claim the effort of claiming reflect the determination to seek attention in the media, spur – Muslim - western fighting age men to stand up and conduct attacks in the western countries. But also the likely growing capability to send – after first being recruited, trained fighters and operators, as seen lately also show their revenge to western states fighting them, in trying to lure these nations in to admit forces and to fight on their; DAESH soil, in the effort to make the Islamic predictions work into their favor. Moreover DAESH “dealing” with Muslims and non-Muslims; infidels in the countries they operate contribute to the effort. Finally even if the western coalition with the US, Russia and France in the lead for the west will be able to dissolve the Islamic State: DAESH, large elements could go “underground” for some time to rise back later as also seen in the past. In all the Ideology that drives them will not be destroyed, to the contrary Al Qaeda is seen maneuvering to get the DAESH remnants back into its orbit. And Zawahiri still pursues his version of the Caliphate; the battle is far from over.

For Al Zawahiri it was clear when he in 2005 wrote his known to us all letter to Zarqawi, telling him to be patience and do not rush into the declaring of the caliphate, that Zawahiri still pursued today. Zarqawi ignored the call, and advice to establish first an Emirate, connect them with other, some still to build, Emirates and call than; when the Muslim Ummah is "nation" or "community"; the collective community of Islamic peoples is ready for the





final caliphate. When Baghdadi also ignoring the call and advice self declared the Islamic State again Zawahiri opposed and deplored, even disassociated himself with DAESH. Than it was explained by many that this would bring the downfall of Al Qaeda and would be over taken by DAESH. However DAESH focus on fellow Muslims brings to light where Zawahiri warned for, you need the Ummah you can not kill those who are mentioned in the Book and Quran as yours; the Qur'an almost always refers to ethical, linguistic, or religious bodies of people who are subject to the divine plan of salvation. Moreover, before it refers exclusively to Muslims, the Ummah encompasses Jewish and Christian communities as one with the Muslims and refers to them as the People of the Book; are adherents of Abrahamic religions that predate Islam.

Current counterterrorism efforts have hurt the Islamic State. Because membership is the primary resource of any terrorist organization, it’s no surprise that the Islamic State has released several videos criticizing those who flee to the ‘infidel’ and ‘xenophobic’ Europe. If the Islamic State needs new recruits, attacking France – as it claimed it did Nov 13, is attractive. The more France retaliates, the easier it may be for the Islamic State to mobilize new recruits. Violent counterterrorism radicalizes moderates and produces calls for vengeance that militant groups exploit to recruit supporters. This is why al-Qaeda recognized mobilization as “the dividing line between success and failure” and the Islamic State shares this view.

The propaganda machine is running at high speed as DAESH presently under heavy pressure from mainly the US, Russia and France forces conducting airstrikes against them. Many DAESH fighters and even higher-level commanders are looking for ways out. However many of these efforts result in being killed; beheaded as traitor. ISIS authorities have remained vigilant against the dangers of potential “Awakenings within”, or growing opposition; lure DAESH fighters away into to “the right cause” from Al Qaeda” so far in Iraq, Libya, and parts of Syria. They strictly monitor the Internet and media, and after establishing control in an area, they conduct reeducation programs for local leaders and citizens. They also use entrapment to root out opposition. While some individuals in DAESH-controlled territory adhere to the group’s cause, others remain silent solely to stay alive, and that could change.

In DAESH’s propaganda tool and own magazine, Dabiq, repeatedly predicts a global clash between its own khilafah (caliphate) and the West. A plan that became public in 2005 by the German paper Der Spiegel, however as an Al Qaeda plan; DAESH was not established or heard of back than. DAESH





doesn’t attack targets in sole revenge, it attacks as a strategy to cause chaos, instill fear, attract recruits and lure the west to take actions against them. The ultimate aim, according to its own statements and publications, is global conquest through war. Its long-term goal is to submit the entire world to its ideology, and build a global Caliphate based on its interpretation of Islam; as it was and still is for the leader of the original plan to do so: Al Qaeda’s current leader Al Zawahiri.

Although statements are made that the growing list of terrorist attacks mounted by the DAESH is a sign that it is evolving fast and metastasizing, evidence provided so far does not give hard confirmation to connect DAESH to”all” these claims made. By simply jumping to acceptance or looking for DAESH under every bed over the World, and assuming that DAESH did it all, we could make the capital mistake off not looking through the Fog of War and coming to the wrong conclusion’s.

Final Remarks: In the wake of the Paris attacks, the French National Assembly has declared a state of emergency for three months. French Caribbean islands have been included in the state of emergency declared in France by President Francois Hollande following the terrorist attacks in Paris. The French government has also reportedly asked Twitter and Facebook to block pictures of the ISIL attacks, worried that they could further escalate fear in society. Such measures are a matter of criticism in Turkey when applied by Ankara. But it seems that under growing threats the advanced democracies of the EU will not hesitate to call on the military in urban areas, or restrict communications.

It is not only Turkey, France, and Germany that are affected by the recent wave of terror by DAESH. Russia is now also in the picture. After Russia’s intelligence service, the Federal Security Service (FSB), announced that a bomb had brought down the Russian passenger plane into the Sinai desert on Nov. 4, killing 224 people, Russian planes in Syria escalated their attacks on ISIL targets in Raqqa.

After the 20 Nov Hotel attack President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, of Mali has declared a 10 days state of emergency. Chad’s parliament has decided to extent a state of emergency in the southern Lake Chad region, prey to bomb attacks by the Nigerian Islamists of Boko Haram, The resolution, will extend the special powers given to regional authorities until March 22, 2016.

At times of war, freedoms are generally ignored by governments, but there The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.

–Winston ChurchillCdW Intelligence to Rent of 21 02/05/2023



are also lessons that the media should draw, such as over the use of graphic images that only serve the purpose of those trying to spread fear. A realistic, sustainable joint international strategy against DAESH is increasingly urgent. Moreover Europe could fallback decades after serious efforts of building a Europe state, our own citizens will feel the burden of restrictions and lack of freedom to maneuver, travel. If we move to far to the right DAESH and Al Qaeda will have won even without fighting us, we could be back to the Stone Age in modern day Europe, if there is one left in the future.




i Andrew Longman | American Thinker | 20 November 2015ii by PAM KEY 16 Nov 2015 Monday on MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” iii James Phillips is the senior research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs at the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation.iv By PATRICK SCHMIDT on November 18, 2015 This summary was prepared by Patrick Schmidt. Originally Posted on November 12, 2015

1. For the audio clip of “Statement from the Mujahidin: Bay’ah To the Caliph of the Muslims Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,” see http://jihadology.net/category/countries/algeria/page/2/.2. For the audio clip of “Bay’ah of the Mujahidin in the City of Qusantinah (Constantine) To the Caliph of the Muslims Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Joining The Islamic State’s Wilayat al-Jaza’ir,” see http://jihadology.net/2015/07/25/new-audio-message-from-sarayyah-al-ghuraba-bayah-of-the-mujahidin-in-the-city-of-qusan%E1%B9%ADinah-constantine-to-the-caliph-of-the-muslims-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-and-joining-the-islamic-state/.3. For the video clip of “One Body #2: Congratulations To Our Brothers In Algeria – Wilayat Salah al-Din,” see http://jihadology.net/2015/08/10/new-video-message-from-the-islamic-state-one-body-2-congratulations-to-our-brothers-in-algeria-wilayat-%E1%B9%A3ala%E1%B8%A5-al-din/.4. For the audio clip of “Statement from the Mujahidin: Bay’ah To the Caliph of the Muslims Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Joining The Islamic State’s Wilayat al-Jaza’ir,” see http://jihadology.net/2015/09/04/new-audio-message-from-katibat-al-an%E1%B9%A3ar-statement-from-the-mujahidin-bayah-to-the-caliph-of-the-muslims-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-and-joining-the-islamic-states-wilayat-al-jaz/.5. Tweets from Twitter account of M. Gharib al-Ikhwan (@bhbhbhbh131), September 21, 2015.6. Tweets from Twitter account of Uyun al-Ummah (@Oyoon_is), September 21, 2015.7. For the audio clip of “One Body – Wilayat al-Jaza’ir”, see https://archive.org/details/algasd.

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