al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2015 part 4-1-aqim-17

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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-AQIM-17

In The "War of the Cross, we need a Strategy."They say those who forget history are doomed to repeat it again

AQIM has shown resilience and an ability to adapt to new situations, making it a dangerous and resourceful adversary. With al-Mourabitoun's inclusion, it has become even more dangerous, but it remains to be seen how long Belmokhtar and AQIM's leader Abdelmalek Droukdel will be able to work together before their egos get in the way.For that reason, al-Qaeda's leader Ayman al-Zawahiri allegedly ordered a regional division with Droukdel in charge of Algeria, Belmokhtar of Libya and Djamel Okacha of West Africa. Last but not least, AQIM may try to go for the "grand prize", which would be an attack on European soil soon.

March 26, Niger has porous borders with Libya, Algeria, Mali and Burkina Faso, which have all been hit by AQIM recently, and Nigeria to the south - making it vulnerable to Islamist attacks. Government and corporate security executives have been advised to take urgent proactive steps in preventing a possible Al Qaeda attack on Nigerian soil. Such a terrorist attack could result in mass fatalities. In a chat with the President of Association of Industrial Security and Safety Operators of Nigeria (AISSON), Dr. Ona Ekhomu recently said that the trajectory of the Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Al Mourabitoun (AMB) recent wave of terrorist attacks in West Africa showed that Nigeria was the probable next target. “The most likely target cities are Abuja or Lagos,” he said.

Al-Qaeda may have fallen off the media radar since its leader, Osama bin Laden, was killed by US commandos on May 2, 2011, but it is now making a steady comeback and bracing for new battles.Challenging the Caliphate Being much older than Daesh, al-Qaeda has good chances of outliving the self-proclaimed Caliphate, Lenta.ru wrote. Despite the fact that radical Islamists have in the past years gravitated towards Daesh, al-Qaeda remains a strong brand on the strength of the 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington and its late leader who is still a more familiar name than Daesh leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.In a competition with Daesh for recruits and clout across the Middle East, al-Qaeda has sought to distinguish itself from its rival's bloodthirstiness, taking an approach that in jihadi circles would be considered pragmatic. It is building alliances with local players, even old enemies, to seize new territory. Besides, unlike Daesh, al-Qaeda has no vertically-integrated structure or any particular base anywhere, which makes its destruction almost a mission impossible. In Syria the al-Nusra Front is fighting on al-Qaeda’s behalf and poses a serious military and ideological challenge to Daesh.On the battlefield al-Nusra sticks to pinpoint strikes by suicide bombers, while Daesh prefers large-scale military operations.Yemen on Fire Al-Qaeda maintains a very strong foothold in Yemen in the form of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). It emerged in 2009 after local Islamists and their brethren from Saudi Arabia joined forces against the common enemy. Even though AQAP

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

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has suffered a series of defeats from the Yemeni armed forces, the terrorists are now rebuilding their quasi-state and arming local Sunni tribes to take

on the Shiites.Black Jihadists in Africa Al-Qaeda is no stranger to the African continent with operations in Sudan, Nigeria, and Somalia, most notably through the militant group Al-Shabaab. As a growing number of local militant groups sign on to al-Qaeda's ideology in sub-Saharan Africa, the continent is fast becoming the war on terror's newest front line.Strategic Defense “I think that al-Qaeda is even more dangerous than Daesh. With the world nations attention now focused on flushing out Daesh, al-Qaeda has quietly been spreading its influence across the Middle East and regaining its previous strength,” Yuri Barmin, a Moscow-based foreign policy expert, told Lenta.ru.Andrei Chuprygin, another expert on the Middle East, was equally skeptical about the prospects of defeating the notorious terrorist organization.“The only way you can destroy al-Qaeda is by getting all nations to work as one, but I see no such intention at all,” he said. “They are still unable to clinch an agreement on Syria, but fighting al-Qaeda is harder than fighting Daesh because it has no particular territory you can strike at,” the expert added.

Africa: The Re-Emergence of AQIM in Africa On March 13, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) terrorists stormed the beach of Grand Bassam in the Ivory Coast and killed 19 people. This should not have come as a surprise because in January, France had warned the Ivory Coast of possible jihadist attacks against beaches popular with foreigners. On March 18, AQIM attacked an oil and gas facility in southern Algeria with rockets. These attacks prove once again the re-emergence of AQIM as a terror force to be reckoned with.One of Al-Qaeda's remaining affiliates, AQIM was officially created in 2007 from the Algerian Salafist Group for Call and Combat (GSPC). AQIM has followed a multi-pronged strategy including kidnappings, narco-terrorism and alliances with various criminal and terror organisations around the world.Although it pulled off terrorist attacks in Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Mali and Mauritania in the past few years, it has remained focused on Algeria. This stance pushed some members led by its leader in the Sahara, Mokhtar Belmokhtar, to break away from AQIM in December 2011. Indeed, Belmokhtar wanted to spread jihad beyond North African deserts and establish a foothold in Sub-Saharan West Africa.





Since then AQIM has lost a fair amount of its capabilities, while Belmokhtar's new group was behind the 2013 bloody attack on a gas facility

in In Amenas that killed dozens of foreigners and one Algerian.Meanwhile, Belmokhtar has become a high-value target. Although his death has been announced so many times, lately with the United States claiming they killed him in Libya in June 2015, there are signs that he is certainly very much alive. In December 2015, right after carrying out the deadly attack on the Radisson Blu Hotel in Bamako, Mali, Belmokhtar's group - al-Mourabitoun, or The Sentinels - joined AQIM.Actually in this merger of sorts, AQIM is the one gaining much more, and this is clearly a game-changer. In the course of just four months, three deadly attacks against foreigners in three West African countries, Mali, Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast, have proven Belmokhtar's "added value".The group's method of using gunmen rather than suicide bombers has been its hallmark. To target a hotel and foreigners in a former French colony is the AQIM's preferred method of carrying out high-profile attacks. The group considers France its number-one enemy on a par with Algeria.Since its inception, AQIM knew it had to perpetrate spectacular attacks on international targets for wider exposure. Therefore, it made no secret that turning to soft targets by targeting foreign nationals had become one of their priorities.AQIM relied on kidnapping foreign nationals as its primary method for funding and it gained expertise in that domain. With the influx of a new round of Western European soldiers from Germany, Belgium and Sweden to Mali, the instances for more kidnappings by AQIM are highly likely.Recently, AQIM has also shifted its focus on Libya - a country where it had shown quite a presence in the south in the past few years. Warning of a Western military intervention in Libya, AQIM claimed in a video that an Italian general is the real ruler of the country.It calls for Libyans to take up arms against the foreign invaders that include Italy, France, the United Kingdom and the US. Back in 2013, AQIM threatened Morocco in a video showing King Mohamed VI engulfed in flames. However, so far it has not succeeded in targeting the kingdom.Since it is very difficult for AQIM to target either Morocco or Algeria because both countries have extremely strong and well-funded counterterrorism programmes, it is likely to continue focusing attacks in West Africa, with Senegal probably next on the list. In light of this, it makes total sense for AQIM to recruit locals, and not remain Algeria-centric. As a result, Algerians do not represent the first nationality among fighters. Now Malians do.OPINION: An attack on Ivory Coast was inevitableAQIM has regained credibility in the jihadist world with these three attacks in the past four months targeting France and its African allies. It also sends a message to the world that Sunni jihadists do not belong to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS), but that Al-Qaeda is alive and kicking. In fact, when it comes to competition with ISIL, AQIM has a competitive edge in that part of the world. For now, it is the uncontested big dog in North and West Africa.AQIM has shown resilience and an ability to adapt to new situations, making it a dangerous and resourceful adversary. With al-Mourabitoun's inclusion, it has become even more dangerous, but it remains to be seen how long Belmokhtar and AQIM's leader Abdelmalek Droukdel will be able to work together before their egos get in the way.For that reason, al-Qaeda's leader Ayman al-Zawahiri allegedly ordered a regional division with Droukdel in charge of Algeria, Belmokhtar of Libya and Djamel Okacha of West Africa. Last but not least, AQIM may try to go for the "grand prize", which would





be an attack on European soil soon.Olivier Guitta is the managing director of GlobalStrat, a geopolitical risk

and security consultancy firm with a regional specialisation on Europe, the Middle East and Africa.This story from Al Jazeera was supplied to AllAfrica under an agreement with the African Media Agency.

Violent Islamist campaigns have taken an acute turn since 2013 with Libya, Tunisia, Mali, Somalia, Kenya and Nigeria bearing the brunt of most jihadist attacks .

Tunisia, sick man of jihadism"Look! We can follow the attacks in real time. It's like being on the front lines!" says a pro-IS shopkeeper, flicking though his twitter feed, in the documentary Salafistes. Unlike Algeria and Morocco, Tunisia has not controlled travel to conflict zones. When islamist party Ennahda was in power after 2011 it encouraged young people to fight in foreign wars. How did this progressive country of just 11 million people send so many to fight for IS? Some point to the fierce repression of islamists, others to the high education levels that help plug well-connected youth into the global jihadi movement. There is also high unemployment, and despair at seeing how founding father Habib Bourguiba's vision was betrayed by corrupt elites. The current government appears unable to get a grip on the interior ministry, with incoherent responses to the attacks on Sousse beach and the Bardo museum.IS picks Libya as fall backMany groups struggle for power in Libya. Scores of militia, some islamist in inspiration, are battling to control territory. Two rival parliaments compete for power, one having fled tripoli for Tobruk, the other around Benghazi. Strongmen from the army have rallied local support. Of the Islamists, some are long-standing and linked to Ansar al-Sharia. Others are more recent, with iS importing battle-hardened fighters from Syria in 2015, sometimes clashing, sometimes making common cause with local Islamist groups. AQIM has bases in the desert in the south and also around Ajdabiya.State of desperation in MaliThere are many layers to Mali's crisis. The state has been hollowed out by a decade of drug money in the army and criminals in high places recycling cash into the Bamako property market. In march 2015, gunmen burst into La Terrasse restaurant in Bamako. It was assumed they were from the same groups that seized northern Malian cities in 2013 and temporarily imposed Sharia law. But a high-level security insider at the un tells The Africa Report there are claims that the La Terrasse attack was a settling of scores between a member of the political elite and a business partner. While they scrap, islamist groups like Ansar dine and the Front de Libération du Macina continue to act with impunity in the north and centre of the country.Somalia pulls Kenya into the quagmireThe IS and Al Qaeda rivalry for African hearts can be seen in the Horn, too. Here, Al Qaeda is still strong. "If you belong to another group, go where you belong," said an Al-Shabaab leader recently. "If you have a different flag, take it with you. It doesn't work here, and you will be beheaded, even if you have a big beard." One small faction has declared its support for IS, mostly Kenyans. They have better access to television and internet and are therefore more exposed to the IS communications machine, which by some accounts makes up 2% of the group's $2bn annual budget.Mokhtar belmokhtar leader, Al-Mourabitoun





The one-eyed Algerian fought in Afghanistan and in the Algerian civil war before becoming the link between Al Qaeda and its franchise in the Maghreb,

AQIM. In 2012, he split from AQIM after falling out with rival AQIM leader Abou Zeid. His latest group, Al- Mourabitoun, claimed responsibility for recent attacks on hotels in Burkina Faso and Mali. Making his fortune atthe head of a criminal-religious network, with Stratfor estimating that it earns about $3m per hostage taken, Belmokhtar has taken a more violent turn – perhaps reflecting an ongoing struggle for influence with the IS rebels.Middle Eastern blowbackThe Soufan Group report on the foreign fighters in IS makes tough reading for North Africa. This grisly 'Internationale' is made up of around 30,000 fighters, including more than 8,000 from the Maghreb, the second-largest supplier of foreign troops after the Middle East. Some 6,000 of those troops are from Tunisia. The Tunis government admits that there are also 700 women who have made the trip to IS-controlled territory. They are often from coastal hubs neglected by the state – from Benghazi and Derna in Libya, from the small Tunisian town of Ben Gardane and the Tangier region in Morocco. A leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, was said to have quipped: "If Ben Gardane had been located next to Fallujah, we would have liberated Iraq."

How Boko Haram insurgency cost North-Eeast $9bnMarch 31, The North East Nigeria Recovery and Peace Building Assessment (RPBA) team announced on Thursday that the impact of the conflict in the region cost $9 billion.The team also said it would need $6 billion to perform recovery efforts in the crisis torn area.The data, released at the two-day final validation and consensus workshop in Abuja, noted that the devastation happened between 2011 and 2015. Presenting the report, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), Dr Mariam Masha, said that Borno was worse hit by the crisis with a loss of $6 billion.According to her, the region suffered damage worth $3 billion in housing alone while it suffered damages in terms of livestock which brought about the need to restore agriculture in the region. The RPBA said Yobe and Adamawa states were next in devastation, adding that the devastation in other parts of the region is enormous but with less gravity. She said no fewer than 20,000 lives were lost while 1.8 million people were displaced by the Boko Haram insurgency.Masha said that the planned “interventions is going to be done over time based on resources that are available. “And what this process brings home is that it also helps to create a platform to harmonise resources, to coordinate better, support and planning at the federal level, at the state level and support also from international donors and partners,’’ said the presidential aide.She said that RPBA would try to generate the needed funds for the rehabilitation of the North East through partnership with donor groups. “We have support from our partners, we have support from the donors and we also have the support from the government.“It is not something that can be fixed in one day. It is not money that can be raised in one day but it is process that is ongoing. “It is good that we see it as that and that is why it is important to prioritise what needs to be done immediately, what need to be done in a short to medium term, and this is what this is presenting to us,’’ she added.The presidential aide said that the assessment was basically built on work that had been done both at the federal and at the state government levels.She said it considered the data collected from the state governments, the ongoing initiatives at the federal government level “and what data is available from there and





bringing this together to see what gaps exist in them and how to fill them’’.In the report, the RPBA recommended a four-year strategic plan to restore

the North East to progress and development.The plan was divided into two equal phases of stabilisation and recovery, and would cover such areas as agriculture, housing, transportation and education over the four-year plan.The representative of the European Union, Mr Juan Casla, said that the assessment was outcome of the protocol of the EU and UN to help countries in that kind of situation.Said he: “From my experience in this type of interventions I have seen that the team has been able to put in place thorough assessment in a complex and challenging situation in the North East. “Being able to analyse the data from this situation and coming out with a sound, precise and concise assessment that focus on the issues affecting the North East, and coming out with recommendations that are sound and offer the way forward for the different government agencies and the states to tackle these situations.’’He said the EU was satisfied with the assessment.“So, with the leadership that we have seen from the federal government and the different states and the international donor agencies we now have to discuss how to move forward,’’ Casla said.The Borno Commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement, Dr Baba Umara, said that the quantum of damage done to the state by Boko Haram was alarming.He said that the people had suffered very serious stress and strain in overcoming insurgency. He said the World Bank, EU, UN and the Federal Government had made an assessment to find lasting solution to these problems which was commendable.The commissioner, however, said that the validation workshop was with respect to the infrastructure, social and peace building as well as the recovery components. “We are optimistic that at the end of this report something very good will come to the people of Borno, the entire North East region and Nigeria in general.’’ He said that Borno government would key in the stabilisation and recovery concurrently. “We hope that by the end of the four-year term things would be okay. “But when things are not okay the state government may need to look for another intervention or the World Bank, EU mission may decide to expand the scope of the work to another four-year period,’’ he added. (NAN)

Boko Haram is only an appetizer for worse things to come – ShettimaApril 1, Chairman of the Northern Nigeria Governors’ Forum, Alhaji Kashim Shettima yesterday alerted that Nigeria may not know peace even after the defeat of the Boko Haram insurgency as there are numerous indications that the country may be faced with worse scenarios in not too distant future.Speaking during the visit of a team from the United Nations led by its resident coordinator in Nigeria, Ms. Fatma Samoura, the Borno State Governor warned that the capitulation of Boko Haram may not necessarily be the end of such experience in the country.Shettima, who said: “Boko Haram may be an appetizer for worse things to come unless we put our thinking caps on,” maintained that there are signals everywhere to show that the world needs to pay more attention to the region in order to avert worse crisis even after the ongoing Boko Haram crisis was over. He lamented that the Boko Haram insurgency was a child of extreme poverty that has continued to ravage the sub-Saharan Africa especially the zone which the North-East happened to fall within.According to the Governor, “The signals are there all over, the North is going to be inhabited by over 70 percent of Nigeria in 2050 when the nation’s population is expected to be the third largest in the world with over 400 million people. “There has to be





conceited effort from the rest of the world to handle the disaster waiting to happen.”

March 28 The Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement, al-Qaeda’s branch in Somalia, claimed credit for the raid on the Maka al-Mukarama Hotel in the capital, Mogadishu, and threatened additional attacks, declaring that there will be no “safe haven” for the enemy in the country. In an English statement published on Shabaab-affiliated websites and jihadists’ Twitter accounts on March 28, 2015, Shabaab spokesman Ali Mahmoud Ragi (AKA Ali Dheere) informed that dozens of “apostates and their allies” were killed, and that while some fighters “attained martyrdom,” others ae still alive and returned to their bases. He added: “We reiterate again that there will be no safe haven for the crusaders and apostates in Somalia, and that our attacks on them will continue until the enemy of Allah are defeated and his law is implemented fully in Somalia”.

Following is a copy of the English message: HSM Press Release: Mogadishu Attack

Mogadishu (28/03/2015) In the Name of Allah, the Most Beneficent, the Most Merciful: With the blessings of Allah the Mujahideen have successfully carried out an operation on one of the retreats of the apostates in Mogadishu. The operation which lasted almost twenty hours resulted in the perishing of dozens of apostates and their allies. Some of the Mujahideen attained martyrdom during the operation, while the remaining retreated safely to their bases, waiting for future operations. We reiterate again that there will be no safe haven for the crusaders and apostates in Somalia, and that our attacks on them

will continue until the enemy of Allah are defeated and his law is implemented fully in Somalia Sheikh Ali Mahamud Rage Official spokesman for Harakat Al-Shabaab Al Mujahideen.

Remember: The Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin—commonly known as al-Shabaab—was the militant wing of the Somali Council of Islamic Courts that took over most of southern Somalia in the second half of 2006. Despite the group’s defeat by Somali and Ethiopian forces in 2007, al-Shabaab—a clan-based insurgent and terrorist group—has continued its violent insurgency in southern and central Somalia. The group has exerted temporary and, at times, sustained control over strategic locations in those areas by recruiting, sometimes forcibly, regional sub-clans and their militias, using guerrilla warfare and terrorist tactics against the Somali Federal Government (SFG), African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeepers, and nongovernmental aid organizations. As of 2013, however, pressure from AMISOM and Ethiopian forces had largely degraded al-Shabaab’s control, especially in Mogadishu but also in other key regions of the country,





and conflict among senior leaders has exacerbated fractures within the group. In 2013 al-Shabaab rivalries culminated in a major purge of opponents of

deceased group leader Ahmed Abdi Aw-Mohamed.Mukhtar Abu al-Zubeir, the leader of the Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement, pledged to al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a video released by al-Qaeda's media arm, as-Sahab. The 14 minute, 41 second video, which features an audio speech from Zubeir and footage of an address by Zawahiri, was posted on jihadist forums on February 9, 2012. On behalf of the Shabaab, Zubeir pledged allegiance to Zawahiri and told him that the group enjoys success and "great fortune" in its jihad in Somalia. Additionally, he congratulated the al-Qaeda leader for the "defeat" of US-led forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, a defeat that Zawahiri acknowledged in his portion. Zawahiri stated about the unity of the groups: "Today, I have pleasing glad tidings for the Muslim Ummah that will please the believers and disturb the disbelievers, which is the joining of the Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement in Somalia to Qaedat al-Jihad, to support the jihadi unity against the Zio-Crusader campaign and their assistants amongst the treacherous agent rulers." Zawahiri also called to Somalis, telling them to follow the example of jihadi ideologues such as Abdullah Azzam and the "Blind Sheikh" Omar Abdul Rahman, as well as former al-Qaeda leader Usama bin Laden. He added: "I remind them that we are one Ummah that is waging one battle against the arrogant Crusaders and their oppressive, corrupting followers. Thus, they should carry the worries of their Muslim Ummah everywhere and help their Muslim brothers with what they can, even if through supplication, because it is one of the most effective tools of victory. And [I ask them] not to forget their captive brothers and sisters in the prisons of the Crusaders and the corrupt oppressors, and to lie in wait for the Crusaders and the Zionists wherever they can get them, to use them to release the captive Muslim men and women.




al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2015 part 4-1-aqim-17

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