alameda unified school district demographic trends and forecasts shelley lapkoff, ph.d. and jeanne...
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Alameda Unified School District
Demographic Trends and Forecasts
Shelley Lapkoff, Ph.D. and Jeanne Gobalet, Ph.D.Lapkoff & Gobalet Demographic Research, Inc.
March 13, 2007
Agenda
How we categorized students in order to unravel the different factors that have affected enrollments
Enrollment trends
Revised enrollment forecasts
Changes reflect latest information about Alameda Landing
Capacity compared with enrollments, and comparing enrollees to residents
Conclusions
Former Naval Base• Marina Village• North Village • Alameda Point
Enrollment Patterns, 1999 – 2006
Housing Growth• Bayport
Alameda Neighborhoods• Bay Farm Island (BFI)• East of Park, Main Island• Park to Webster• West of Webster, South of Atlantic
IDTs(students who live outside Alameda)
Harbor Island Apts.
Categories of Students
Charters
Former Naval Base• Marina Village• North Village • Alameda Point
Enrollment Patterns, 1999 – 2006
899 Student Loss
Housing Growth• Bayport
Alameda Neighborhoods• Bay Farm Island (BFI)• East of Park, Main Island• Park to Webster• West of Webster, South of Atlantic
IDTs(students who live outside Alameda)
Harbor Island Apts.
Enrollment Patterns by Category
++
+_
__
Charters_
__
+
Enrollment Trend 899 Enrollment Decline between 2001-2006
Elementary: 627-student decline Middle school: 234-student decline High school: 38-student decline
All enrollment figures exclude charter students, unless otherwise noted
K to 5 Enrollments, 1981 to 2006
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,00019
81
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents
6 to 8 Enrollments, 1981 to 2006
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,00019
81
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents
9 to 12 Enrollments, 1981 to 2006
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,00019
81
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents
Inter-district Transfer Students
AUSD has a large number of IDT students, which help buttress enrollments.
Enrollments have been fairly stable over time.
In analyzing historical trends it is important to separate the effect of IDTs to see true AUSD demographic patterns.
The forecast assumes the average patterns of the last three years will equal each grade’s future enrollments (this assumption is easy to change).
K-12 IDTs
422379
406
514
391
439410
496535
481
0
100
200
300
400
500
60019
97
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents
Former Naval Base
Marina Village Housing – newer Coast Guard housing
North Village Housing – older Coast Guard housing, now abandoned, and the site for future development
Alameda Point – low-income housing assistance now operated by Alameda Point Collaborative
New Housing – Bayport, other redevelopment areas on the former base
Enrollments on Former Naval Base (excludes Bayport)
259
211
259
321
361
419 408 397
298276
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
45019
97
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents
Evictions at Harbor Island Apts. (now Summer House)
Occupants left 615 apartments in 2004 and 2005
About 500 K-12 students lived in units
About half of the students continued in AUSD
35 percent went to other Alameda housing
15 percent left Alameda and became inter-district transfer students
Summer House
144 units are now occupied
Remaining units will be occupied by the summer (units being released continuously); total will be 615 units
There are now 11K-12 students in Summer House; forecast assumes 44 total
K-12 Students in Harbor Island / Summer House Apts
463503
554524
487 486449
227
12 110
100
200
300
400
500
60019
97
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents
Alameda Neighborhoods or Subareas
Bay Farm Island 2,202 students in 2006-07
East of Park Street, Main Island 1,974 students in 2006-07
Between Park and Webster Street 3,818 students in 2006-07
West of Webster, South of Atlantic 1,064 students in 2006-07
Migration and Housing Turnover (Grade
Progressions)
Start with today’s students by grade, then age the students one grade
K
1
2
3
4
etc.
1
2
3
4
5
etc.
some students leave, othersenter
2006 Grade Progressions for 4 Subareas Combined
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30K
>1
1>2
2>3
3>4
4>5
5>6
6>7
7>8
8>9
9>10
10>
11
11>
12
Year
Ch
ang
e in
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents
Grade Progressions
Grade progressions are the key assumption used in the forecast. We start with the current students and age them for each year of the forecast. The choice of grade progression determines how their numbers will shrink or grow as the cohort moves to the next grade.
The forecast uses an average of the last three years’ grade progressions.
Aggregated Elementary Grade Progressions4 Subareas
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
16019
97>
98
1998
>99
1999
>00
2000
>01
2001
>02
2002
>03
2003
>04
2004
>05
2005
>06
Years
Ch
ang
e in
Nu
mb
er o
f S
tud
ents
Kindergarten Enrollment and Birth
Trends
Number of Births in 4 Subareas
0
200
400
600
800
1000
120019
92
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f B
irth
s
Kindergarten Enrollment in the 4 Subareas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f A
US
D S
tud
ents
Kindergarten and Births in the 4 Subareas
0
200
400
600
800
1000
120019
97
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f A
US
D S
tud
ents
Births 5 Years Prior
Kinders
New Housing
Housing Forecast
Number of Students =
Number of housing units * “Student Yield”
Student Yield = average number of students per housing unit
Housing Forecast Number of future housing units
anticipated– Bayport: Under construction, 70 students in October,
2006. 145 more students expected (including residents of 39 subsidized apartment units)
– Alameda Point Comprehensive Plan: timing is uncertain; 1,735 units in latest document
– Alameda Landing: expected in 2010-11; up to 300 housing units
– Northern Waterfront: timing uncertain, though 40 units are approved; 500 units total
Student Yield: Average number of students per unit– Varies by type, price, and age of housing– Assume .50 yield in redevelopment areas– Adjust assumption after Bayport has been completed
Long-run Perspective
Eventually, about 1,200 students expected from redevelopment areas
Timing is uncertain; we assume development on the former Naval base begins in 2015
Likely to take many years to complete, so AUSD should be able to adjust gradually to steady student increase
Former Naval Base•.Marina Village•.North Village •.Alameda Point
Enrollment Forecast, 2006 – 2011
20 Student Loss
Housing Growth• Bayport• Former Naval Base redevelopment• Alameda Landing• Northern Waterfront
Alameda Neighborhoods•.Bay Farm Island (BFI)•.East of Park, Main Island•.Park to Webster•.West of Webster, South of Atlantic
IDTs(students who live outside Alameda)
Summer House Apts.
Enrollment Forecast by Category
++__
Charters
+
+
_
?
?
+
Comparison of Current Residents with Facilities
Capacity
AUSD-defined school capacity
Number of attendance area
residents
Difference: capacity -residents
Alameda 1,815 1,934 -119
Encinal 1,366 842 524
Total 3,181 2,776 405
Comparing High School Capacity and Residents
Comparison of Residents and Enrollees
High School Attendance Area of Residence
Enrolled At:Alameda
HighEncinal
High Not AUSDP.O. Box Address
Total Enrolled
Alameda High School 1,827 22 4 5 1,858Encinal High School 107 820 165 1,092
Subtotal 1,934 842 169 5 2,950
Other High School Enrollments:
SDC Alameda High School 47 10 1 58SDC Encinal High School 11 37 4 52
ACLC 62 61 2 125ASTI 40 24 34 98Island High School 107 70 8 2 187
Total Residents 2,201 1,044 218 7 3,470
High School Students, Fall 2006
AUSD-defined school capacity
Number of attendance area
residents
Difference: capacity -residents
Chipman 830 459 371
Lincoln 1,008 967 41
Wood 890 669 221
Total 2,728 2,095 633
Comparing Middle School Capacity and Residents
Middle School Attendance Area of Residence
Enrolled At: Chipman Lincoln Wood Not AUSDP.O. Box Address
Total Enrolled
Chipman 432 14 60 80 3 589Lincoln 1 925 7 3 936Wood 26 28 602 2 658
Subtotal 459 967 669 82 6 2,183
SDC Bay Farm 1 `SDC Chipman 12 2 2 3 19SDC Lincoln 3 16 5 1 25SDC Wood 10 7 18 2 37
Bay Farm Elem. 1 27 3 1 32
ACLC 38 22 22 1 83
Total residents 523 1040 719 89 9 2,380
Middle School Students, Fall 2006
Other Middle School Enrollments:
AUSD-defined school capacity
Number of attendance area
residents
Difference: capacity -residents
Bay Farm 497 476 21
Earhart 631 507 124
Edison 321 364 -43
Franklin 274 281 -7
Haight 492 474 18
Lum 466 452 14
Otis 373 442 -69
Paden 376 242 134
Ruby Bridges 596 398 198
Washington 437 341 96
Total 4,463 3,977 486
Comparing Elementary Capacity and Residents
Elementary School Attendance Area of Residence
Enrolled At: Ba
y F
arm
Ea
rha
rt
Ed
iso
n
Fra
nkl
in
Ha
igh
t
Lu
m
Otis
Pa
de
n
Ru
by
Bri
dg
es
Wa
shin
gto
n
No
t AU
SD
P.O
. Bo
x A
dd
ress
Tota
l En
rolle
d
Bay Farm 444 33 6 2 6 8 8 0 0 3 3 3 516Earhart 32 456 2 1 6 6 19 0 0 7 9 0 538Edison 0 0 336 2 4 0 22 0 0 1 1 0 366Franklin 0 0 0 223 29 6 2 0 0 23 2 0 285Haight 0 3 3 7 356 22 7 1 7 17 12 0 435Lum 0 5 4 6 30 382 21 5 5 20 13 0 491Otis 0 6 10 1 1 7 347 0 0 1 7 0 380Paden 0 2 2 9 20 9 9 220 42 20 16 0 349Ruby Bridges 0 2 1 7 8 5 6 8 325 46 57 0 465Washington 0 0 0 23 14 7 1 8 19 203 48 0 323
Subtotal 476 507 364 281 474 452 442 242 398 341 168 3 4,148
Elementary School Students, Fall 2006
Conclusions AUSD experienced a severe enrollment decline
between 1999 and 2006. This resulted from a variety of factors.
The enrollment decline has nearly ended.
Eventually, about 1,200 students are expected from redevelopment areas, but this is in the long run.
Currently, the District has excess capacity at each school level. IDTs use some of this capacity.
A few areas have facilities shortages despite the district-wide excess capacity: East of Park elementary attendance areas have more
residents than seats Lincoln and AHS are close to having more residents than
capacity AUSD may want to convene a study group to consider
options regarding excess capacity and the mismatch of facilities and residents in East of Park (and perhaps other areas)
Revised Table 1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2006-2011 2011-2016
Bay Farm Island 2,202 2,195 2,181 2,157 2,107 2,069 2,049 2,010 1,989 1,954 1,941 -133 -128
East of Park, Main Island 1,974 2,020 2,042 2,096 2,133 2,131 2,142 2,160 2,165 2,172 2,180 157 48
Park to Webster 3,818 3,777 3,713 3,671 3,594 3,582 3,503 3,484 3,479 3,447 3,440 -236 -142
Webster to Main, S. of Atlantic 1,064 1,023 994 948 902 876 854 841 838 826 821 -188 -55
Harbor Island/Summer House Apts 11 26 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 33 0
Bayport 70 139 184 216 215 216 215 212 212 215 215 146 -1
Marina Village (New CG housing) 114 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 4 0
North Housing (Old CG housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alameda Point 162 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 19 0
Out-of-District students 481 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 33 0
Subtotal 9,896 9,993 9,971 9,946 9,808 9,731 9,620 9,564 9,540 9,471 9,454 -165 -278
Students from new housing 0 0 20 95 145 170 195 220 303 385 145 240
Total 9,896 9,993 9,971 9,966 9,903 9,876 9,790 9,759 9,760 9,774 9,839 -20 -38
These enrollments are based on student address data and do not exactly match CBEDS enrollments.BASE and ACLC charter students are not included in these figures.
Enrollment Forecast
K to 12 EnrollmentsChange
Revised Table 62006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2006-2011 2011-2016Bay Farm Island 999 988 984 972 959 941 924 914 884 882 882 -58 -59East of Park, Main Island 824 834 856 886 895 889 880 875 860 838 838 65 -51Park to Webster 1,617 1,603 1,574 1,557 1,558 1,537 1,540 1,548 1,545 1,555 1,555 -80 18Webster to Main, S. of Atlantic 461 457 445 441 430 444 444 444 444 444 444 -17 0Harbor Island/Summer House Apts 5 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 13 0Bayport 35 67 87 103 104 104 103 103 103 103 103 69 -1Marina Village (New CG housing) 75 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 2 0North Housing (Old CG housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Alameda Point 66 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 22 0Out-of-District students 174 172 172 172 172 172 172 172 172 172 172 -2 0Subtotal 4,256 4,299 4,301 4,315 4,302 4,270 4,245 4,239 4,191 4,176 4,176 14 -94Students from new housing 0 0 9 44 67 78 90 102 140 178 67 111Total 4,256 4,299 4,301 4,324 4,346 4,337 4,323 4,329 4,292 4,316 4,354 81 17
2006-2011 2011-2016Bay Farm Island 528 510 525 499 491 475 478 475 487 472 462 -53 -13East of Park, Main Island 493 485 489 499 496 510 526 539 548 562 557 17 47Park to Webster 877 870 823 811 805 794 785 778 760 752 760 -83 -34Webster to Main, S. of Atlantic 222 200 190 182 189 163 159 148 162 162 162 -59 -2Harbor Island/Summer House Apts 2 6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0Bayport 16 35 43 45 44 47 48 50 49 49 48 31 1Marina Village (New CG housing) 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 0 0North Housing (Old CG housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Alameda Point 47 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 1 0Out-of-District students 91 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 20 0Subtotal 2,297 2,286 2,259 2,226 2,215 2,179 2,186 2,180 2,195 2,186 2,179 -118 0Students from new housing 0 0 5 22 33 39 45 51 70 89 33 55Total 2,297 2,286 2,259 2,231 2,237 2,212 2,225 2,225 2,246 2,256 2,267 -85 55
6 to 8 Enrollments
Enrollment ForecastChange
K to 5 Enrollments
Revised Table 6, cont.2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2006-2011 2011-2016Bay Farm Island 675 697 673 686 657 653 647 620 618 600 597 -22 -56East of Park, Main Island 657 700 697 711 742 733 736 745 757 773 785 76 52Park to Webster 1,324 1,303 1,316 1,302 1,230 1,250 1,178 1,158 1,174 1,140 1,125 -74 -126Webster to Main, S. of Atlantic 381 366 359 326 283 269 252 249 232 220 216 -112 -54Harbor Island/Summer House Apts 4 8 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 12 0Bayport 19 37 54 68 67 65 64 59 60 63 64 46 -1Marina Village (New CG housing) 18 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 3 0North Housing (Old CG housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Alameda Point 49 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 -4 0Out-of-District students 216 232 232 232 232 232 232 232 232 232 232 16 0Subtotal 3,343 3,408 3,411 3,405 3,291 3,283 3,189 3,145 3,154 3,109 3,099 -60 -184Students from new housing 0 0 6 29 45 52 60 68 93 118 45 74Total 3,343 3,408 3,411 3,411 3,320 3,328 3,241 3,205 3,222 3,202 3,217 -15 -110
2006-2011 2011-2016Bay Farm Island 2,202 2,195 2,181 2,157 2,107 2,069 2,049 2,010 1,989 1,954 1,941 -133 -128East of Park, Main Island 1,974 2,020 2,042 2,096 2,133 2,131 2,142 2,160 2,165 2,172 2,180 157 48Park to Webster 3,818 3,777 3,713 3,671 3,594 3,582 3,503 3,484 3,479 3,447 3,440 -236 -142Webster to Main, S. of Atlantic 1,064 1,023 994 948 902 876 854 841 838 826 821 -188 -55Harbor Island/Summer House Apts 11 26 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 33 0Bayport 70 139 184 216 215 216 215 212 212 215 215 146 -1Marina Village (New CG housing) 114 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 4 0North Housing (Old CG housing) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Alameda Point 162 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 181 19 0Out-of-District students 481 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 514 33 0Subtotal 9,896 9,993 9,971 9,946 9,808 9,731 9,620 9,564 9,540 9,471 9,454 -165 -278Students from new housing 0 0 20 95 145 170 195 220 303 385 145 240Total 9,896 9,993 9,971 9,966 9,903 9,876 9,790 9,759 9,760 9,774 9,839 -20 -38
These enrollments are based on student address data and do not exactly match CBEDS enrollments.BASE and ACLC charter students are not included in these figures.
Enrollment Forecast
K to 12 Enrollments
Change 9 to 12 Enrollments