ALASKA WEATHER & CLIMATE HIGHLIGHTS SEPTEMBER–NOVEMBER 2015

ICING

HIGH SNOW

HIGH WIND

HIGH RAIN

FREEZING RAIN

INTERIOR ALASKA

Two significant early-season snowstorms hit the Fairbanks area in late September. On Sept 25, 4–9" snow fell at lower elevations but melted before another 8–16" fell Sept 28–30. During the 2nd storm, 20,000+ customers lost power for a day or more as snow-laden trees fell into power lines. Power outages were widespread across Fairbanks, including some areas of North Pole and south towards Nenana. On Sept 30 the University of Alaska Fairbanks cancelled classes and public schools were closed due to poor road conditions and risk of power lines across roadways.Denali area: Heavy snow on south side of Alaska Range closed Parks Highway at times on Nov 25. South of Cantwell, 3–4' snow fell over several days, causing snow slides. A weather station near Chulitna River north of Trapper Creek received a whopping 97" snow during November.

Unalaska/Dutch Harbor: Nov 11 storm produced damaging winds, which gusted to

91 mph at Dutch Harbor Airport and 93 mph at Atkutan. Several buildings had windows blown

out and at least one home suffered structural damage. Schools closed due to threat of blowing debris.

Bering Sea: A strong Bering Sea storm Nov 16–17 brought high water to most coastal communities from Bering Strait south to Nunivak Island. At Scammon Bay high seas and waves sank 5 boats; 2 others drifted away.

North Slope: Temperatures averaged well above normal, though overall this was the coolest autumn since 2011. Due to sharp decline in autumn sea ice coverage in recent years, only one autumn since 2000 has been cooler than long term average.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA

At Ketchikan on Oct 9, 3+" rain fell and winds peaked at 62 mph. Power was knocked out from downed trees on power lines. Winds gusted to 76 mph at Hydaburg. Almost 3.5” rain fell in Haines area Nov 27–29, with multiple landslides that closed at least one area road for 8 hours. A foot of snow in the Juneau area Nov 17–18 caused multiple fender-benders. Yakutat received almost 11” snow, and up to 10” snow fell at Pelican and Elfin Cove.

HAINES

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA

On Nov 9, 1–3" snow and freezing combined with mild road surface temperatures to create a solid ice covering on many Anchorage area roads, resulting in multiple minor accidents and forcing closure of Anchorage area

schools. On Nov 24–25 freezing rain forced closure of most schools in Mat-Su school district.

JUNEAU

ANCHORAGE

FAIRBANKS

BARROW

HEALY AREA

W DENALI NP

ATIGUN PASS

NULATO

NUNIVAK I.

UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR

SCAMMMON BAY

KETCHIKAN

HYDABURG

YAKUTAT

alaska precipitation, inches september–november 2015

“Significantly Wetter” = Within the Wettest third of values compared to the 1981–2010 reference period

“Significantly Drier” = Within the driest third of values compared to the 1981–2010 reference period

NEAR NORMAL

NEAR NORMAL

NEAR NORMAL

SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL

SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL

0.98

2.95

5.90

11.73

13.53

22.39

9.66

8.25

6.78

6.357.43

8.95

11.37

6.75

10.6936.94

1.21

3.54

3.20

53.2430.74

42.90

58.37

data and analyses are preliminary and subject to revision.

juneau

anchorage

barroW

cold bay

ketchikan

nome

denali np

homer

kodiak

bettles

king salmon

bethel

pribilofs

northWay

eagle

gulkanatalkeetna

cordovayakutat

sitka

kotzebue

prudhoe bay

ivotuk Wx

mcgrath

kaltag

tanana

fairbanks

alaska temperatures, °F september–november 2015

“Significantly above” = Within the Warmest third oF values compared to the 1981–2010 reFerence period

“Significantly below” = Within the coolest third oF values compared to the 1981–2010 reFerence period

18.217.8

28.7

31.9

35.3

41.5

40.0

44.0

41.9

36.8

31.1

23.1

27.8

26.8

26.326.124.7

29.5

40.132.3

43.3

46.942.1

47.5

SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL

data and analyses are preliminary and subject to revision.

NEAR NORMAL

NEAR NORMAL

NEAR NORMAL

juneau

anchorage

Fairbanks

petersburgsitka

barroW

prudhoe bay

cold bay

ketchikan

nome

denali np

cordovayakutat

bettles

ivotuk Wx

homer

kodiak

king salmon

bethel

kotzebue

eagle

northWay

gulkana

pribiloFs

mcgrath

kaltag

tanana

Data and analyses are preliminary and subject to revision. Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

NAT

ION

ALO

CEANIC

AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTR

ATION

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

ALASKA REGION SEPTEMBER–NOVEMBER 2015 Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook

WEATHER AND CLIMATE HIGHLIGHTS

“Significantly above/below” = within the warmest/coolest third of values compared to 1981–2010 reference period

“Significantly wetter/drier” = within the wettest/driest third of values compared to 1981–2010 reference period

TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES

Three-month outlooks for temperature (left) and precipitation (right) for Alaska. EC=equal chances for A, N, B. A=above, N=normal, B=below.

Created 17 Dec 2015, 0.5 month lead, valid Jan-Feb-Mar 2016.

Visit ncdc.noaa.gov for more climate news. For more information, please contact: DECEMBER 2015JAMES PARTAIN james.partain@noaa.gov • RICK THOMAN richard.thoman@noaa.gov #regionalclimateoutlooks

ALASKA REGION PARTNERS Alaska Center for Climate Assessment & Policy • Alaska Climate Research Center • Alaska Climate Science Center • Cryosphere Today (University of Illinois)

NOAA / NWS Weather Forecast Offices in Fairbanks, Anchorage and Juneau • NOAA / NESDIS / NCEI • Scenarios Network for Alaska + Arctic Planning

CLIMATE DIVISIONS HIGHLIGHT: TEMPERATURE RANKINGS FOR 2014 AND 2015

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS: A YEAR OF EXTREMES

Based on analysis by the National Centers for Environmental Information, 2014 was the warmest year of record (since 1925) for Alaska as a whole. However, much of the warmth was concentrated in western and northern parts of the state. In fact, the Panhandle, while certainly significantly warmer than average, was not exceptionally warm. 2015 has followed suit, and is on track to be, like 2014, one of the warmest years of record in Alaska.

Here we show the ranks of 13 Alaska climate divisions for 2014 (left) and 2015 through November (right). While final rankings in some regions may change depending on how December turns out, in 2015 warmth is clearly more evenly distributed, with all divisions very likely have a “top 5” ranking. Causes of the warmth are in part due to sustained warmer than average ocean surface temperatures in the seas surrounding Alaska, and to significantly reduced sea ice coverage near Alaska during summer and autumn compared to before the late 1990s.

Highlights of 2015 include the very low snow pack in February and March that forced cancellation of the Wold Championship Sled Dog races at Fur Rondy and moved the Iditarod restart to Fairbanks. Low snow cover in Southcentral Alaska and a record warm May in much of the Interior set the stage for an extreme wildfire season. More than 5 million acres burned, much of that in 5 weeks from mid June to late July. Several wildfires destroyed homes and even more forced evacuations. Overall this was the second largest wildfire season since 1950, behind only 2004. Never has so much of Alaska burned in so little time.

Record heavy precipitation and snowfall fell in parts of the Interior in late September; more than 20,000 homes and businesses were without power in the Fairbanks area during the last days of the month, some for up to a week. In October the remains of Hurricane Oho brushed Southeast Alaska, making this only the third time in the past century that Southeast has been directly impacted by an ex-hurricane. In December one of the deepest storms on record in the North Pacific and Bering Sea produced wind gusts to over 120 mph at Adak, causing considerable property damage.

NORTH SLOPE

WEST COAST

CENTRALINTERIOR

NORTHEASTINTERIOR

SOUTHEASTINTERIOR

COOKINLET

BRISTOL BAY

WESTERNGULF COAST

NORTHEASTGULF COAST

NORTHERN PANHANDLE

TEMPERATURE RANKINGS, 2014

Record Warmest

Much Above Average

Above Average

SOUTHERNPANHANDLE

ALEUTIANS

NORTH SLOPE

WEST COASTwarmest since

1925

CENTRALINTERIOR

warmest since 1925

NORTHEASTINTERIOR

SOUTHEASTINTERIOR

COOKINLET

BRISTOL BAYwarmest since

1925WESTERN

GULF COASTwarmest since

1925

NORTHEASTGULF COAST

NORTHERN PANHANDLE

CENTRALPANHANDLE

SOUTHERNPANHANDLE

ALEUTIANSwarmest since 1925

NORTH SLOPE

WEST COAST

CENTRALINTERIOR

NORTHEASTINTERIOR

SOUTHEASTINTERIOR

COOKINLET

BRISTOL BAYwarmest since

1925WESTERN

GULF COAST

NORTHEASTGULF COAST

NORTHERN PANHANDLE

CENTRALPANHANDLE

SOUTHERNPANHANDLE

warmest since 1925

ALEUTIANSwarmest since 1925

TEMPERATURE RANKINGS, JANUARY–NOVEMBER 2015

Record Warmest

Much Above Average

REGIONAL OUTLOOKS: JANUARY–MARCH 2016TEMPERATURE Increased chances for significantly warmer than normal temperatures across the state except for western Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians. Highest chances are from Kodiak Island, Anchorage and Fairbanks southeastward, where chances exceed 50%. Over northeast Gulf Coast and in Panhandle chances are over 60%. Remember, this outlook is for temperatures over the full 3 months, and it is entirely possible for there to be several weeks of colder than average weather even during a mild winter. Precipitation outlook is derived from outcomes observed in past El Niños.

PRECIPITATION Slightly increased chances of significantly higher than average total precipitation near Gulf of Alaska coast and central and northern Panhandle. Odds tilt toward significantly drier than average across Aleutians, most of western Alaska and central and western Interior. Temperature outlook is derived from a combination of recent moderate and strong El Niños and warmer than average sea surface temperatures.