‘Who, whom.’

Lenin defines politics

“There are two things that are important in politics.

Senator Mark Hanna (R-Ohio), also President William McKinley’s campaign manager 1896 and 1900

The first is money . . . and I can't remember what the second one is.”

Majzoub al Khalifa (NCP-Khartoum), Sudanese party manager and chief negotiator for Darfur peace talks

‘What is important in politics is having the political budget [sanduq al siyasi] needed for the political market [suq al siyasi].’

The second one is political business skills ….

Key Concepts

• The political market– Supply and demand for loyalties/political services

• The political budget

• Political business management

...and turbulence

‘The stable, cumulative, and systemic concept of institutions … becomes, blunt and illogical when applied to a reality that seems, to those who live it, altogether less settled. [Africans] have to apply reason and judgment to horizons of contingency rather than applying a narrow calculative rationality to given variables.’

Jane Guyer

1970s1970s

1990s

2010s

Government of Sudan spending; coups (red) and successful peace agreements (green); and military or democratic government; 1970-2012

Data from World Bank. Consumption expenditure is used as a closer proxy for political budget

‘War belongs to politics, and violence derives from the situation rather than from radical enmity. War is not waged because there are enemies; there are enemies because a war is waged.’

Marielle Debos

Somalia

Somaliland

A business-political contract...

or the allocation of commercial rent to state-building

‘Political Market’ Challenges for Ethiopia

• Domestic context

• Regional environment

• Extra-regional environment

• Global environment

Intersection between them

Domestic challenges

• A contemporary developmental state must be democratic– And must avoid ‘intellectual rent-seeking’

• The centralization of rent allocation places vast discretionary power in the hands of the authorities– There will be (some) corruption: the question is

how much and how it is organized

Regional challenges

A turbulent region in which the facts regularly change requiring us to re-think• Growth of an integrated regional political market• Ethiopia’s national security and its

developmental project are inextricably inter-linked

• Regional political, security, infrastructural and trade integration are strategic

Extra-regional challenges

• The Horn of Africa is becoming part of the Red Sea security complex– Within the strategic security perimeter of Saudi

Arabia– 13% of the world’s maritime trade and 50% of

Europe’s maritime trade– Increasing flows of security cooperation and

peacekeeping funds

Global Challenges

• Economic globalization and the risks of turbulence

• Global inequality and the rising cost of politics– Both intensifying the marketization of politics

• Militarization of the Greater Middle East

• Climate change