alex h. barbat omar d. cardona universidad politécnica de

SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, 21-22 March 2013 1

Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña

Barcelona, España

Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis

for Buildings, Lifeline Networks

and Infrastructures Safety Gain

Alex H. Barbat Omar D. Cardona

Mario G. Ordaz

Yeudy Vargas


Fragility Functions - Buildings

Methodologies

Reinforced Concrete

Masonry


Fragility Functions - Buildings

Intensity Measure Types

Reinforced Concrete

Masonry

SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, 21-22 March 2013

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Probabilistic risk modeling: Loss assessment

Hazard

Exposed assets Risk

Vulnerability

AAL

PML

evaluación del riesgo - Alex.ppt



1.E-06

1.E-05

1.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1 10 100 1000

PG

A e

xc

ee

da

nc

e r

ate

(1

/ye

ar)

PGA, gal

uniform seismic hazard spectra intensity exceedance curve

(hazard curve)

For each point of analysis

For each spectral ordinate

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

period, s

PG

A,

ga

l

Seismic hazard


Peak ground acceleration [cm/s2]

PG

A e

xce

edan

ce r

ate

[#/y

ear]

0

2

4

6

8

1

300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

10-3

1/exceedance rate [#/year]= T

Hazard curve T = 100 years

T = 1000 years

n = 0.01

n = 0.002

n = 0.001

Hazard maps for different return periods

CRISIS

Seismic hazard

T =500 years


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00

Spectral acceleration, Sa, g

MDR

- - - - standard deviation

Seismic vulnerability functions

mean d

am

ag

e r

atio

(%

) //

/ sta

nd

ard

de

via

tio

n, σ


Probabilistic risk assessment Loss exceedance rate annual occurrence frequency FA

Loss exceedance probability

Annual occurrence frequency of each scenario

Loss, p

Loss

exc

ee

dan

ce r

ate

n(p)

Loss exceedance curve

1

Tv p

APr ( )v p p P event i F event i





Average annual loss, AAL

0

( )dAAL p pn

Probabilistic risk assessment

Loss, p

Loss

exc

ee

dan

ce r

ate

n(p)





Sum for all the scenarios of the product of the expected loss

times the annual occurrence frequency of the scenario

Sum over all scenarios

Annual Average Loss

Loss expected value,

conditional to scenario

occurrence

Annual occurrence

frequency of the scenario

E

1

( | ) ( )N

A

i

AAL E P event i F event i

Average annual loss, AAL

Probabilistic risk assessment


return period T, years

pro

bab

le m

axim

um

loss

, PM

L

PML is a loss associated to a given return period.

In the insurance industry the return period varies

between 200-1500 years

Probabilistic risk assessment Probable maximum loss, PML


t

peak ground acceleration, g

me

an

da

ma

ge

in

de

x,

dm

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1


me

an

da

ma

ge

in

de

x,

dm

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

0

Computational evaluation of damage

yuy

h

u

m

F

EDI

Park and Ang

damage index

damage caused by

large deformations

damage caused by

cyclic load effect


0

0.8

0.2

0.4

0.6

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

x 1

0 -5

P

rob

ab

ility

de

nsity fu

nctio

n

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Cu

mu

lative

de

nsity fu

nction

0

1

2

3

Pro

babili

ty d

ensity function

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Cu

mu

lative

de

nsity fu

nction

100 structures

Yielding strength of steal

3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5

y 10f Compressive strength of concrete

' 4

c 10f 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

random variables

100

computational

models


Seismic demand for IDA

EUROCODE-08, Type 1, Soil D

Mean spectrum

Spectra selected from data bases Spectr

al accele

rati

on (

g)

Period (s)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

time (s) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

accele

ration

(g)

20 accelerograms, each one with 12 increments


)(1

0

i

n

i

dsiPn

DI

0 0

0.1 0.2

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

24 000 calculated damage indices


Monte Carlo simulation of damage

Park and Ang

damage index

me

an

da

ma

ge

in

de

x,

dm


Du Dy

0

1 2

3

4

Sd1 Sd3 Sd2 Sd4

no damage slight

modera

te

severe

com

ple

te

Sd2=dy Sd1=0.7 dy Sd4=du

Sd3=dy+0.25(du-dy) 0.25

dy 0.7 du

Fragility curves


0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Spectral displacement Sd (m)

P(d

s/S

d)

NO DAMAGE 0 SEVERE 3

COMPLETE 4

P(0)

P(1)

Sd

Fragility curves

P(2)

P(3)

Damage state Slight Moderate Severe Complete

d m

Damage state number, di 1 2 3 4

Damage probability, P(i) P(1) P(2) P(3) P(4)

P(4)

Expected damage index

)(4

1

41

m iPddi

i

Damage states

probabilities


P(d

s/S

d)

Expected damage dm index for each Sd d

m

Vulnerability curve

Spectral displacement Sd (m) 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

)(4

1

41

m iPddi

i


Vulnerability curves


MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE DAMAGE INDEX

dm


IDA

pushover

analysis


Barcelona

238 AEB

10 districts

38 neighborhoods

Área de Estudio de Barcelona

28/40

SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, 21-22 March 2013 29/40

78668 parcels

10 096 Ha (100.1 km2)

Cadastral data

Barcelona

238 AEB

10 districts

38 neighborhoods


Blocks Parcels Sub-parcels

58481 residential buildings

1 inhabitant

577904 dwellings

71298 built parcels

5317 blocks

Cadastral data


other parcels

GROUPED PARCELS (GPA)

Cadastral value

Data available by block


Exposed elements

69982 built parcels considered

in the evaluation, for which the

complete data are available

(98% of the total number)

Value of the buildings

in M€ per AEB

32/40

Barcelona


0 - 2 ( inhabitants/km2) 2 - 5 5 - 1 5 1 5 - 3 0 3 0 - 4 5 4 5 - 6 0 6 0 - 7 5 > 7 5

Total: 1 634 614

Population density


Historic earthquakes 1373, 1410, 1427, 1428, 1448

Seismic scenario

for Catalonia,

Spain, in PGA for

T=475 years


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5

M31H

M31L

M31M

M32H

M32L

M32M

M33H

M33L

M33M

M34H

M34L

M34M

Barcelona

VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONS LIBRARY

Acceleration at the base rock [cm/s²]

Exp

ecte

d d

am

ag

e [

%]


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

RC1H

RC1L

RC1M

S3H

S3L

S3M

S5H

S5L

S5M

WH

WL

WM

Barcelona

Acceleration at the base rock [cm/s²]

VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONS LIBRARY

Exp

ecte

d d

am

ag

e [

%]

presentation.ppt

presentation.ppt


T i p o l o g y M 3 1

M 3 2

M 3 3

M 3 4

R C 3 2

S 1 / S 3

S 5

W

41/40


Annual average loss

per AEB (‰)

42/40

Barcelona


CAPRA

Annual average loss

per AEB (‰)

Eixample district, Barcelona

Eixample district, Barcelona, Spain

AAL at parcel level

43/40


CAPRA

44/40

Average Annual Loss

death by AEB

(AAL/100000 inhabitants)

44/40

Barcelona


CAPRA

Average Annual Loss

injured by AEB


45/40

Barcelona


CAPRA

46/40

Average Annual Loss

homeless by AEB


Barcelona


CAPRA

47/40

Average Annual Loss

jobless by AEB


Barcelona


Holistic evaluation

Physical risk index

48/40

Barcelona

SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, 21-22 March 2013 26/03/2013 www.move-fp7.eu

Aggravating factor

Holistic evaluation

49/40

Barcelona


Holistic evaluation

Total risk

50/40

Barcelona


C I M N E

GLOBAL ASSESSMENT REPORT ON

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION 2013

Coarse grain risk indicative evaluation at

world level, considering only the direct

physical damage in urban buildings

GAR13


PGA, 225 years

Seismic hazard assessment Results


PGA, 475 years



PGA, 1000 years



PGA, 2500 years



Seismic hazard assessment

T=0 s, 1000 years

Results


T=0.2 s, 1000 years



T=0.5 s, 1000 years



T=1,0 s, 1000 years



T=2,0 s, 1000 years



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Inte

nsi

ty, g

al

Period, s

Tokio Taipei Manila Lima Bogotá

Seismic hazard assessment Results uniform seismic hazard spectra


Global exposure database World map of the populated centers


Global exposure database Population


Global exposure database Exposed physical value


Global exposure database Distribution of the exposed value, 5 x 5 km grid


AAL by country

Results

Seismic risk assessment


Results


AAL respecting the exposed value, by country


Results


PML for a loss return period of 250 years, by country


Results


PML respecting the exposed value, for a loss return period of 250 years,

by country

SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, 21-22 March 2013 ahb

alex h. barbat omar d. cardona universidad politécnica de

Documents