Alfredo Campos Costa e Maria Lusa Sousa Reduo da vulnerabilidade e mitigao do risco ssmico. Aplicao rea Metropolitana de Lisboa Workshop projecto LESSLOSS SP10 Earthquake disaster scenario prediction and loss modelling for urban areas Curso de formao em modelao de perdas em consequncia de sismos, tcnicas para a reduo da vulnerabilidade e risco ssmico LNEC, 25 de Maio de 2006

ConclusionsIndexChoice of case study areaVulnerability and inventory definitionLoss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL3.1 Reference situation3.2 After mitigation

ConclusionsIndexChoice of case study areaVulnerability and inventory definitionLoss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL3.1 Reference situation3.2 After mitigation

Choice of case study area Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL3 x 106 inhabitants1755 eq M8.751909 eq M 6.9

Choice of case study area Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL90 km96 km

Global Statistics 2001 Parishes277 (7%)Geotechnical profiles37Number of smallest geographic divisions: parishes+ geotechnical profiles405Building classes49Residential buildings477170 (16%)Dwellings1 389236 (29%)Population2 841067 (29%)2001 GDP 55106 ( 47%)

Choice of mitigation options MALMain causes of lossesHuman losses: severe and complete damage in most masonry buildings Economic losses: damages on RC buildings with the highest exposure in the region (>1960)Mitigation actionsUpgrading most masonry buildingsUpgrading of RC buildings >1960 mainly those located in soils correspondent of the higher exposure of buildingsMethodologyDevelop new capacity and fragility curves; consider a possible range of modification techniques. update LNECloss tool

ConclusionsIndexChoice of case study areaVulnerability and inventory definitionLoss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL3.1 Reference situation3.2 After mitigation

Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Traditional construction (rural)Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stockMasonry old buildings (urban)

Masonry old buildings (urban)Before 1755Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)PombalinosVulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)GaioleirosVulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Unreinforced brick with RC floors PlacaVulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Confined masonryVulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Without ERDVulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)After RSCCS code and before RSA codeVulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)After RSA codeVulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Masonry old buildings (urban)Vulnerability and inventory definition Characterization of MAL housing stock

Vulnerability and inventory definition Geographic distribution of exposure MAL

Vulnerability and inventory definition 7 vulnerability classes x 7 n floorsVulnerability classesAdobe + rubble stone + others Masonry before 1960Masonry 1961-85Masonry 1986-01RC before 1960RC 1961-85RC 1986-01497315

Vulnerability and inventory definition Vulnerability characterization 49 typologies

Vulnerability and inventory definition Soil classificationMAL373

Ground typeStratigraphic profilevs [m/s]ARock and hard soil > 350BIntermediate soil200-350CSoft soil< 200

Vulnerability and inventory definition Exposure analysis MAL

Vulnerability and inventory definition Exposure analysis MAL

Vulnerability and inventory definition Exposure analysisMAL

ConclusionsIndexChoice of case study areaVulnerability and inventory definitionLoss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL3.1 Reference situation3.2 After mitigation

Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling earthquake ground motionSA [cm/s^2]

Earthquake scenario modal values derived from PSHA disaggregationLoss Modelling for MAL Modelling earthquake scenario

00.20.40.60.811.20510152025Sd [cm]Sa [g]Site effects Soil dynamic amplification

Tagus RiverPGA for bedrockLoss Modelling for MAL Modelling earthquake scenario475 years RP scenarioPGA considering soil columns

Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling Building vuln. and damage evaluationAy = Cs / Dy = Ay Te2 / (2)2 Capacity curveYield capacity (Dy, Ay)

Ultimate capacityAu = Ay Du = Dy Fragility curveDrift ratio d

49 typologiesLoss Modelling for MAL Modelling Building vuln. and damage evaluation

Criteria derived from losses for the reference situation and 475 RP

Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling strengthening interventions

Ground typeAdobe + rubble stoneMasonry 1960Masonry 1961-85Masonry 1986-01RC 1960RC 1961-85RC 1986-01HardInterm.Soft

Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling strengthening interventions

# Streng.MasonryRCImprovement of force capacityImprovement of ductile capacity.d1-25%25%2-50%25%3-75%25%475%75%25%5-25%50%6-50%50%7-75%50%875%75%50%9-25%75%10-50%75%11-75%75%1275%75%75%

Loss Modelling for MAL Modelling strengthening interventions

Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified cityBuildings (Masonry + RC) Completely damaged for the reference situation and for the 12 intervention strategies

Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified cityPopulation killed (inhabitants of Masonry and RC buildings) for the reference situation and for the 12 intervention strategies

Severely damaged buildingsMitigationReferenceLoss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified cityModified urban region (Str.#8 for masonry and Str. #12 for RC)

Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for existing cityDisaggregation of economic losses, by damage state, for the 475 return period scenario

Completely damaged buildingsMitigationReferenceLoss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified cityModified urban region (Str.#8 for masonry and Str. #12 for RC)

Killed populationMitigationReferenceLoss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified cityModified urban region (Str.#8 for masonry and Str. #12 for RC)

Probabilistic Seismic Risk AnalysisLoss scenariosLoss modellingLoss modelling for MAL Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis

Earthquake scenario based on PSHA disaggregationLoss Modelling for MAL Modelling earthquake scenario

Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified cityEconomic mitigation risk curves Mitigation = E(Lref|h) E(Lmitig|h)

Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified cityHuman mitigation risk curves Mitigation = E(Lref|h) E(L mitig|h)

Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified cityAverage economic mitigation for an exposure period of 50 years

Loss Modelling for MAL Loss estimates for modified cityAverage human mitigation for an exposure period of 50 years

ConclusionsIndexChoice of case study areaVulnerability and inventory definitionLoss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL3.1 Reference situation3.2 After mitigation

Conclusions MAL case studyTarget areaMetropolitan Area of LisbonNumber of buildings477,170Approx. Population3,000,000Magnitude7.9Location of earthquakeMarques of Pombal Thrust FaultDistance from target area(Offshore)Depth 10 kmApprox. return period500Range of macroseismic intensity in the target areaVII-IX (MMI)

Improve ductile capacity and force capacity for most masonry buildings and for RC buildings constructed after 1st seismic codeConclusions Proposed Mitigation Action

Some masonry classes being high vulnerable (e.g. Adobe + rubble stone) cause significant human lossesLess severe physical damages plays an important relative contribution to economic losses, mainly in RC buildingsConclusions Losses are a consequence of:

Conclusions Risk mitigation for earthquake in MALTarget areaMetropolitan Area of LisbonProposed Mitigation ActionImprove ductile capacity and force capacity for most masonry buildings and for RC buildings constructed after seismic code% of buildings Severely damaged10.1%% of buildings Completely damaged3.9%% of buildings Completely damaged WITH mitigation0.8% - 2.4%No. and % of population killed WITH mitigation79 (0.0028%) 166 (0.0058%)No. and % of population killed (night)269 (0.0095%)% of buildings Severely damaged WITH mitigation3.5% - 7.3%

*The numbers indicated in brackets represent the percentage of losses relatively to total MAL buildingsConclusions Impact of the purposed mitigation actionsBenefits = [E(Lref|h) E(Lmitig|h)]/ E(Lref|h)

Impact indicatorBefore mitigationAfter MitigationMitigation benefitsBuildings Severely damaged48580 (10.1%*)16901 (3.5%) till 34 866 (7.3%)28% till 65%Buildings Completely damaged18660 (3.9%)4032 (0.8%) till 11 489 (2.4%)38% till 78%Population killed269 (0.0095%)79 (0.0028%) till 166 (0.0058%)38% till 71%

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